Ökonomen streiten über Verteilungsfrage

The jobs market saw mostly good news Thursday, with a big increase in private sector hiring helping offset an uptick in weekly jobless claims.

The government said the number of people filing claims for weekly unemployment aid rose to 372,000, a number it said could have been distorted by the winter holiday season.

In a separate report, the private sector created 215,000 new jobs in December, a much stronger than expected number boosted by gains in construction hiring.

ADP said construction added 39,000 positions in the month, second only to trade and transportation utilities, which grew 53,000. Medium- and larger-sized businesses led the way with 102,000 and 87,000 new jobs respectively.

Economists anticipated that 133,000 private sector jobs were created in December, against 118,000 in the previous month.

The eleventh hour deal reached to avert the fiscal cliff in the U.S. merely masks the bleak long-term outlook for the country, Nouriel Roubini said in an opinion piece published in the Financial Times newspaper on Thursday.
 

Roubini, who is chairman of Roubini Global Economics and has been dubbed "Dr Doom" for his gloomy economic forecasts, said in the piece that the deal manages to stave off the debt issue temporarily rather than resolve it while another serious battle over raising the debt ceiling looms.

(Read more: Key Points in Bill Passed by Congress to Avert US 'Fiscal Cliff')

At the end of February, the U.S. government will reach its debt limit and an agreement is needed between Republicans and Democrats for an increase to the debt ceiling.

Roubini said in the article: "It won't be long before there is another crisis. Two months, in fact."

"That is only the beginning later in 2013 a bigger debate on medium-term fiscal consolidation will begin."

He added that "a big fight about entitlements should be expected as well as a series of little fights over tax reforms" and the whole process will likely "soon get messy."

(Read more: Market Rally Totally Misplaced; Scary February Ahead: Strategist)

The sticking point is likely to be intended tax rises. Roubini says President Barack Obama will argue that the New Year's Day deal raises only a small amount and that there is room for further tax rises, for the wealthy at least. On the other hand, Republicans will argue that spending should be radically cut.

In the piece, Roubini said the fiscal adjustment would translate as a drag on the economy during the year, warning "the U.S. could quite easily come perilously close to stall speed this year" or worse if the euro zone begins to unravel once again.

He goes further to argue the longer term is likely to be much worse than any short term woes.

"Neither Democrats nor Republicans recognize that maintaining a basic welfare state… implies higher taxes for the middle class as well as for the rich," Roubini writes.

He goes on to argue that President Obama has scored a "pyrrhic victory" and is being helped by the financial markets.

"It will probably take years for the U.S. to confront the reality of its fiscal position … Large fiscal deficits will remain the norm for the next few years at least as long as the bond market remains quiet, as I believe it will," Roubini said.

He said that the appearance of bond vigilantes was inevitable but eventually they would "wake up."

"The 'mini deal' on the fiscal cliff dodged all the important questions. By not including the spending cuts in the deal, the Democrats have emboldened Republicans. It is again up to Washington's policy makers to fix the problem before the market does it for them," he wrote, warning that this would not happen "with any ease."

Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned about the potential risks of its asset purchases on financial markets, but look set to continue its open-ended stimulus program for now.

Minutes from the Fed's December policy meeting showed a growing reticence about further increases in the central bank's $2.9 trillion balance sheet, which it expanded sharply in response to the financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009.

"Several (officials) thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet," the minutes said.

Following the release, the dollar rose further against the euro, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield jumped to an eight-month high and gold dropped. U.S. stocks drifted lower.

Investors have opened their wallets following the fiscal bargain struck in Washington, but corporate CEOs may not be so quick to tap into their swelling coffers.

Stocks are sharply higher for the very young 2013, but uncertainty abounds as Congress faces critical deadlines in the months ahead that could yet lead to a government shutdown, not to mention steep cuts in defense and domestic spending and an inability for the U.S. to keep funding its massive deficit spending.

With all that in mind, it's hardly a good climate to bring corporate money in off the sidelines.

"Given how cantankerous the fiscal cliff negotiations were, we do not have much faith that the next round of talks, which will begin within a couple weeks and which arguably have much bigger long-run stakes, will go any better," Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Joseph LaVorgna warned clients. "We do not see how this is going to be good for business spending and hiring."
 

The best-case scenario, then, appears to be one in which Congress again can dodge the fiscal guillotine and come up with a solution that at least spurs some more confidence later in the year.

"Consumers know how much they're going to be taxed, businesses know how much they're going to be taxed. From a corporate standpoint, they have enough information to start putting that capital to work," said Carol Roth, head of Intercap Merchant Partners. "I would imagine they would do it judiciously and carefully. I don't imagine them going all in, but you'll see an acceleration of spending and investment from companies."

Companies did close out 2012 showing some willingness to spend.

Merger and acquisition activity spiked in December, up 64 percent from the previous year, though the U.S. for the year saw a below-par $971 billion in volume on an all-time record for deals of 11,957, according to Dealogic.

And dozens of companies, looking to get ahead of a feared steep increase in dividend taxes, borrowed to fund special dividend issues in December.