der Euro/Dollar Long Thread
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"Here we go" der "US 5" heißt auch die Lieblings-CD meiner Tochter (13).
Denn: Wer einmal irrt, dem glaubt man nicht.
Die Zinsschere wird weiter wachsen, weil bei der EZB nach spätestens einer weiteren Erhöhung Schluss sein wird, während die Fed noch mindestens 2, wenn nicht 3 Mal erhöht - auf dann 5 %. Dann würden 5 % in USA 2,5 % in Euroland gegenüberstehen. Das ergibt eine Zinsschere von 2,5 % - mithin mehr als die jetzigen 2 %. Rechnen können die Experten, die eine Ausweitung der Zinsschere in P. 2595 ausschließen, offenbar auch nicht.
Der Irrtum der Experten letztes Jahr war extrem. Denn sie hatten ja sogar einen weiteren Euro-Anstieg vorhergesagt, von 1,50 war die Rede. Nun haben wir 1,18. Das ist ein Prognose-Fehler von über 27 % - mehr als die in Posting 2595 genannten 15 %, die sich ja "nur" auf den tatsächlich erreichten Höchstkurs von 1,37 beziehen.
Wer garantiert mir also, dass die Experten dieses Jahr nicht wieder ähnlich falsch liegen? Ich rechne mit weiterer Dollarstärke und Kursen bis 1,10 - danach könnte evtl. eine technische Erholung kommen. Kurs weit über 1,20 werden wir die nächsten Jahre aber vermutlich nicht mehr sehen.
JAHRESAUSBLICK EURO/DOLLAR
Gruß Moya
juri
Allen Lesern, Freunden
und Gönnern dieses Threads
wünsche ich einen guten Rutsch,
viel Glück, Erfolg
und vor allem Gesundheit
im Neuen Jahr 2006!
Gruß Hotte
LONDON (Reuters) - Interest rates in the United States and the euro zone are set to rise twice during 2006, as the Fed brings its rate cycle to an end and the European Central Bank tightens cautiously for fear of choking the economy.
A December 14-20 Reuters poll of 36 bond strategists also showed the Bank of Japan raising its key rate fractionally above current levels of virtually zero late next year, and forecast one rate cut in Britain by the end of June. Median forecasts showed U.S. interest rates peaking at 4.75 percent in the second quarter, after a steady tightening cycle which has so far added 325 basis points to the cost of borrowing from 1.00 percent in June 2004.
"We think around 4.5 percent is the adequate level for U.S. interest rates -- you could call it a neutral level -- and as there are modest inflation risks in the U.S., we expect the Fed to go slightly beyond that to 4.75," said Holger Schmieding at Bank of America in London.
U.S. fed funds overtook the euro zone's key refi rate a year ago and the spread between the two has steadily widened. But signs of a long-awaited pick up in business and consumer activity in the euro zone finally enabled the European Central Bank to start hiking this month with a move to 2.25 percent.
The survey pointed to two more ECB hikes in 2006, signaling that the rates differential with the United States will stay broadly stable, supporting the euro and pushing up government bond yields in the 12-nation bloc.
"Growth prospects have brightened ... Against this background and due to the excess liquidity in the euro zone, which is a threat for price stability, the ECB will hike interest rates in 2006 to 2.75 percent," said Gernot Griebling at LBBW in Stuttgart.
But with the medians in the poll showing a rate hike by end March and one more in the second half of the year, the pace of tightening in the euro zone is expected to remain very gentle, so as not to upset the economic recovery.
JAPAN, BRITAIN
In Japan, rate hikes -- when they eventually start -- will probably come in even smaller steps. There are signs that the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy has finally paid off in the shape of better growth and, perhaps as early as the current quarter, an end to deflation.
The first step would be for the BOJ to end its policy of flooding the banking system with cash. Rate hikes may then follow, but only very cautiously -- the median in the survey showed the overnight call rate edging up only very marginally by the end of 2006 to 0.10 percent.
By contrast, the Bank of England was the first major central bank to start the tightening cycle back in November 2003. This August, concerns about slowing growth and the risk of a housing market crash prompted it to cut rates to 4.50 percent.
The majority in the poll expect at least one more rate cut during the course of next year, though a sizeable minority say an improvement in growth and concerns about the longer term inflation outlook could instead result in a rate hike.
The medians showed the U.S. fed funds rate matching Britain's repo rate in the first quarter and overtaking it for the first time in five years by mid-year.
But while a timely rate cut seems to have averted a possible housing market crash in Britain for now, in the United States, house prices remain a key risk.
"The risk for the U.S. is that the housing market there may slow markedly, so you can actually argue that for once the UK is actually leading the U.S.," said James Knightley at ING Financial Markets in London.
ING was one of the 10 contributors to the survey who expected U.S. rates to be cut toward the end of next year.
End-2006 fed funds forecasts ranged from 3.5 to 5.5 percent. For Britain the range was 3.5 to 4.75 percent, for the euro zone 2.5 to 3.5 percent and for Japan 0.00 percent to 0.40.
"Die Defizitverfahren in den drei Fällen Deutschland, Frankreich und Griechenland sind der Lackmustest für den revidierten Pakt", sagte Issing in einem am Freitag vorab veröffentlichten Interview mit der "Börsen-Zeitung". Weiter sagte er: "Verstöße gegen den Geist des Paktes müssen politisch möglichst teuer zu stehen kommen."
Deutschland wird 2006 voraussichtlich zum fünften Mal in Folge gegen den EU-Stabilitätspakt verstoßen. Die Regierung will jedoch 2007 die Neuverschuldung wieder unter drei Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts drücken und so die Kriterien des Paktes einhalten.
Die EU-Kommission hatte ursprünglich bereits für Ende Dezember eine Verschärfung des Defizitverfahrens gegen Deutschland angekündigt. EU-Währungskommissar Joaquin Almunia wartet jedoch nun bis Januar ab, um mehr Zeit für Gespräche mit Finanzminister Peer Steinbrück (SPD) zu haben. Steinbrück will bei der EU gegen eine Verschärfung des Defizitverfahrens eintreten. Eine Verschärfung würde im Falle eines Verstoßes 2007 finanzielle Sanktionen gegen Deutschland wahrscheinlich machen.
"Wir werden selbstverständlich immer handeln, wenn wir Risiken für die Preisstabilität sehen", sagte Issing in einem am Freitag vorab veröffentlichten Interview mit der "Börsen-Zeitung". Weiter erklärte er: "Diese Zinserhöhung ist nicht als ein Schritt zu sehen, dem automatisch weitere folgen werden."
Die Europäische Zentralbank hatte am 1. Dezember erstmals nach fünf Jahren ihren Leitzins um einen Viertel-Prozentpunkt auf 2,25 Prozent angehoben
der Homeland Investment Act (steuerbegünstige Kapitalrückführungen für US-Firmen) ausgelaufen ist. Ich schätze daher, dass der Euro stattdessen FALLEN wird, bis die unter dieser ja eigentlich logischen Prämisse eingegangenen Long-Positionen durch alle Stopps gefallen sind.
Verlaufsprognose: schneller Anstieg bis knapp 1,19, dann Fall bis 1,1630 und darunter.
Würde es wirklich 6 % Zinsen auf den Dollar geben - das klingt nach viel, ist historisch aber eher Durchschnitt - , hätte der Euro vermutlich wenig Chancen, wieder über 1,20 zu kommen: Selbst wenn die EBZ noch zwei Mal 0,25 % nachlegt, beliefe sich die Zinsdifferenz dann auf 3,25 %.
Geht man davon aus, dass die Inflation in USA und Euroland etwa gleich groß ist, kann man es auch so sehen: In Euroland gibt es KEINE Realzinsen, weil die Zinsen gerade mal die Inflation ausgleichen. In USA hingegen gibt es den Inflationsausgleich - und dazu noch 3 % obendrauf. Das macht den Dollar als Anlagewährung attraktiver - und lädt geradezu ein zu "Carry-Trades": Billige Kredite in Euro aufnehmen und das Geld in hochverzinste Dollars stecken.
Lange Zeit haben Hedgefonds genau das Gegenteil gemacht. Sie haben bei 1 % Tiefstzinsen Kredite in Dollar aufgenommen und das Geld in Hochzinswährungen angelegt. Nur dadurch konnte der Dollar letztes Jahr so weit fallen. Diese Carry-Trades (zu Lasten des Dollars) müssen bei den hohen Dollarzinsen nun alle rückabgewickelt werden. Bestimmt gibt es immer noch einige, die auf die Wende bei EUR/USD hoffen. Ich weiß z. B. nicht, ob Warren Buffett, der bei 1,35 short Dollar ging, noch auf ein Trendwende bei EUR/USD hofft - er ist ja "Langfristanleger" ;-)) - oder ob er schon vor dem starken Dollar kapituliert hat.
Die Erfahrung zeigt indes: Auch die Beinharten covern irgendwann - mit Pech erst bei EUR/USD = 0,90.
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ECONOMIC REPORT
Fed back in focus
FOMC minutes, jobs report top week's headlines
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:01 AM ET Dec. 31, 2005
§
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Blissful fixed-income markets could be in for a rude, post-holiday awakening from the coming week's economic data.
The reports - and the release of the minutes to the Dec. 13 Federal Reserve meeting -- could put the kibosh on any ideas that the Fed is nearly done tightening.
The three-week rally in the bond market -- which dropped the yield on the 10-year note from 4.55% to 4.37% -- was based on the belief that the Fed would quickly wrap up its rate hikes as the economy slows and inflationary pressures ease.
The release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting could show policymakers remain much more concerned that above-trend growth continues to fuel the furnace of inflation. The minutes will be released by the Fed on Tuesday at 2 p.m.
The minutes provide more information about the level of discussion and disagreement among the FOMC members at the closed-door meeting.
"The U.S. fixed income markets may get off to a bumpy start in 2006," said Bill Dudley, an economist for Goldman Sachs. "The risks are very much on the high side that [the minutes] will be perceived as hawkish."
The expected strong employment report and Institute for Supply Management index could also help force a re-evaluation of the view that the Fed will be done in March.
Recall that on Dec. 13 the FOMC raised interest rates for a record-shattering 13th straight meeting, putting the federal funds rate at 4.25%. The surprise came in the post-meeting statement, which was altered significantly for the first time in nearly two years to remove the word "accommodative" as a description of policy. See full story.
The new statement solidified thinking in the market that the Fed would stop after two more rate hikes; in other words, at 4.75%.
But many economists believe the Fed will keep going, to at least 5% and perhaps to 6%.
In the minutes, "the Fed will want to be especially careful about conveying the impression that it has any idea when the tightening cycle will end," said John Shinn, an economist for Lehman Bros.
"In our view, Fed officials are probably at least as nervous about the inflation outlook as a few months ago," Dudley said. While the backward-looking measures of core inflation show little to be concerned about, forward-looking indicators show that the economy is running out of the excess capacity that's kept prices down.
The December employment data, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m., could further erode the case for Fed restraint. Economists are fairly uniform in their view that job growth has resumed a robust path only briefly interrupted by the hurricanes of the late summer.
Indeed, the storms' impact is likely to be favorable for employment over the next several months, boosting construction hiring as rebuilding ramps up. In addition, hundreds of thousands of people thrown out of work by the storms are beginning to drift back into the labor force.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch see payrolls growing by about 206,000 in December after a gain of 215,000 in November. They expect the jobless rate to remain at 5%. Average hourly wages are expected to climb 0.2%. See Economic Calendar.
All signs point to a healthy job market in December. The number of people receiving unemployment checks fell by about 80,000. A rising number of consumers reported jobs were plentiful. The employment index of the ISM's nonmanufacturing survey rose to a four-month high. The help wanted index rose.
The strength of the labor market is a chief concern of Fed policymakers. While millions of Americans remain out of work, labor shortages are developing in certain geographic regions and in certain occupations. Tight labor markets mean bosses must pay workers more.
And that could lead to an inflationary spiral, as higher wages beget higher prices.
After languishing for years, average hourly wages have been on the rise in recent months, including an 18-year high 0.6% gain in October. In the past 12 months, average pay is up 3.2%, the biggest increase since March 2003.
But a 3.2% rise in nominal wages isn't an inflationary force. Consumer prices are up 3.5% in the past year, so real earnings are down. Inflation-adjusted wages aren't any higher now than they were in November 2001, the last month of the last recession.
"Productivity growth has held up well, so unit labor costs have remained soft," said Neal Soss, chief economist for Credit Suisse First Boston. "Against that backdrop, the inflation threat remains muted in our view. But signs of tightening labor markets are still likely to elicit further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve."
It's not just labor markets that have Fed policymakers watchful. Slack in the industrial economy is also fading.
Despite the woes of the auto sector, the U.S. factory sector is experiencing a lengthy and powerful resurgence. The ISM index, one of the most reliable real-time economic indicators, has been over the break-even 50% mark for 29 months, the longest stretch since the late 1980s.
In December, the ISM index probably faded only slightly to 57.6% from 58.1% in November, economists surveyed by MarketWatch say. The index will be reported on Tuesday at 10 a.m.
The factory sector "is still expanding at a very good clip, driven by lean inventories and strong demand for technology, aircraft, machinery and other capital goods," said Brian Bethune, an economist for Global Insight.
Bethune said supplier deliveries should improve in December, which would be good news for the Fed, which worries about bottlenecks pushing up prices. Orders are likely to pull back, he said.
The Fed will also be watching the prices paid index, which dropped to 74% in November from 84% in October.
The ISM and jobs report aren't the only important data that will come to the Fed's attention before the Jan. 31 meeting. Policymakers and markets will be examining other releases for signs of inflation, consumer fatigue, and slowing in the housing market.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
Letzte Meldung Quelle: FXdirekt Bank AG02.01.2006 17:58
Kurzer Test der 1,1800
Nachdem der US-Dollar am ersten Handelstag 2006 gegenüber dem Euro in einer recht engen Handelsspanne von etwa 40 Pips gehandelt hatte und zum europäischen Handelsende bei 1,1826 notierte, ging es kurz darauf etwas heftiger nach unten. Spekulativ orientierte Anleger schickten EUR/USD bis auf ein neues Tagestief bei 1,1801 und versuchten sich an einem Test der als Unterstützung dienenden 1,18er-Marke, der aber erfolglos blieb. Neue Kaufnachfrage ließ das Währungspaar wieder in den Kursbereich von 1,1815-20 zurückkehren.
Der nach dem Scheitern an der 20-Tage-Linie bei 1,1863 ausgebildete kurzfristige Abwärtstrend ist jedoch weiterhin intakt.
Gegen 17:55 Uhr CET wird EUR/USD mit 1,1817 gehandelt. (vz/FXdirekt)
grüsse
füx