Der Doomsday Bären-Thread
Gruß
Permanent
Zur Beantwortung Deiner Frage: Als Anhaltspunkt kann man EUR/USD nehmen. Steigt die Kerninflation in USA, steigen die US-Zinsen, was dem Dollar hilft, gegenüber dem Euro zuzulegen. Da bislang der Gold-Kurs und der Euro-Kurs parallel liefen, ist es insofern nicht überraschend, dass Gold bei höheren Zinsen nun schwächelt. Statt wegen der drohenden Dollar-Entwertung, die die Inflation ja mit sich bringt, in Gold umzuschichten, konzentrieren sich die Leute offenbar eher auf die höheren Zinsen, die es dann auf den Dollar gibt. Auf Gold gibt es schließlich überhaupt keine Zinsen, und die Welt giert nach Rendite!
Gold kommt gerade von einem 25-Jahres-Hoch, was charttechnisch eher drückt, während der erstarkende Dollar charttechnische Hoffnungen weckt.
So sank der Produktionsausstoß der Fabriken, Bergwerke und Energieversorger gegenüber dem Vormonat um 0,6 Prozent, während er im August unverändert (vorläufig:-0,1 Prozent) geblieben war.
Gleichzeitig verringerte sich die Kapazitätsauslastung der US-Industrie auf 81,9 Prozent. Im Vormonat hatte die Auslastung bei revidiert 82,5 (vorläufig: 82,4) Prozent gelegen.
Volkswirte hatten durchschnittlich nur mit einer Abnahme bei der Industrieproduktion um 0,1 Prozent gerechnet. Bei der Kapazitätsauslastung waren sie lediglich von einem Rückgang auf 82,2 Prozent ausgegangen.
(17.10.2006/ac/n/m)
Seeking a Spike Up
By Rev Shark
TheStreet.com Contributor
10/17/2006 12:25 PM EDT
§
I am surprised by the complete lack of dip-buying interest so far today. I'd expected some interest on a first pullback of any size but I imagine there is some hesitance to step in front of all the big reports due after the bell tonight. The following companies are due to report: Yahoo! (YHOO), Intel (INTC), Motorola (MOT), IBM (IBM), Novellus (NVLS) and Linear Tech (LLTC).
I'm sure there will be a few good reports, but also some disappointments, and we really don't know what sort of tone will emerge. Also, we have the CPI report tomorrow morning, which may be causing some caution after the troubling core PPI report today.
The market has been shrugging off all worries and concerns about earnings and economics lately, and now that we are faced with some hard, cold numbers, the indiscriminate buying isn't sounding like such a good thing.
Another thing that is likely impacting the market a bit today is that there probably has been a fair amount of capitulation by short-sellers over the past week. They are out, so there is no big rush to lock in gains on shorts as the market pulls back. When there are a lot of shorts, they can help support the market, as they often will be fast to cover on dips.
Oil and gold are pulling back and I'm eyeing those groups for some additional buying soon. There is no rush but I do want to average in as they pull back to support.
I'm looking for at least one spike up this afternoon. There should be some gamblers on the sidelines who won't be able to resist the temptation to jump in front of earnings. I think they will emerge late in the day and give us a spike.
Ich jedenfalls bleibe es bis zum bitteren Ende :-)
Mit freundl. Grüßen Trader
Um es vorweg zu nehmen ich bin nicht von diesem Geld abhängig. Aber ich denke jeder der hier mit seinem Geld vernünftig umgeht ist nicht von dem Geld abhängig das er in Derivate steckt. In der Gesamtvermögensbetrachtung würde ich sagen stecke ich noch nicht einmal Geld im prozentualen Bereich in Derivate.
Gruß und einen schönen Abend
wünscht
Permanent
OnceHush!
[EMC] EMC CORP CUT TO HOLD AT CITIGROUP
5:25 AM ET 10/18/06
[MAN] MANPOWER CUT TO HOLD AT CITIGROUP
5:21 AM ET 10/18/06
[NYT] NEW YORK TIMES CO. CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT J.P. MORGAN
5:22 AM ET 10/18/06
[YHOO] YAHOO CUT TO MARKET PERFORM AT PIPER JAFFRAY
5:19 AM ET 10/18/06
[SPLS] STABLES CUT TO NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN SACHS
5:10 AM ET 10/18/06
[ASML] ASML DOWN 4.8% AFTER Q3 EARNINGS
5:08 AM ET 10/18/06
[AKZOY] AKZO NOBEL DOWN 7.1% AFTER OUTLINING POSSIBLE FILING DELAY
5:06 AM ET 10/18/06
LIGHT SWEET CRUDE DOWN 11C AT $58.82 A BARREL
[REP] REPSOL CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT HSBC
3:10 AM ET 10/18/06
[ASMI] ASM INT'L DOWN 1.6%, SAYS ONLY INVESTOR WANTS BREAK UP
3:03 AM ET 10/18/06
[UK:RTR, RTRSY] REUTERS DOWN 2% AFTER Q3 SALES FIGURES
3:03 AM ET 10/18/06
[YHOO] STIFEL NICOLAUS CUTS YAHOO PRICE TARGET TO $29 FROM $33
6:09 AM ET 10/18/06
[SPLS] CORRECT: STAPLES CUT TO NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN SACHS
Der weitere Kursverlauf der US-Indizes dürfte stark von der Kerninflationsrate im heute um 14:30 MEZ veröffentlichten US-Verbraucherpreisindex (CPI) abhängen. Erwartet werden 0,2 % Kerninflation. Die gestern veröffentlichte Kernrate beim Produzentenpreisindex (PPI), die ebenfalls mit 0,2 % erwartet worden war, fiel mit 0,6 % grottenschlecht aus - und löste den gestrigen Abverkauf in USA aus, den Buy-Programme allerdings wieder halbwegs auffingen.
Sollte auch die heutige CPI-Inflation aus dem Ruder laufen, würde bestätigt, dass die gestrige PPI-Kernrate kein statistischer Ausreißer war. Dies würde den Börsen, die zurzeit eine Fed-Pause oder gar weitere Fed-Zinssenkungen fest eingepreist haben, einen mittelschweren Schlag versetzen, zumal Hedgefonds massiv long S&P-500-Futures sind (Positionierung auf 10-Jahres-Hoch!) und somit zu Verkäufen gezwungen würden.
Cooper rechnet in dem Fall (!) mit einem heutigen Fall des S&P-500 auf 1350, und wenn die auch fallen, bis 1335. 
1350 wäre wegen des Optionsverfalls am Freitag (Nailing!) das wahrscheinlichste Szenario.
Technical Analysis
Data Plant Seeds of Doubt
By Jeff Cooper
Street.com Contributor
10/18/2006 6:58 AM EDT
Stocks opened lower and got weaker Tuesday, with the S&P 500 moving up just above hourly support at 1355 when buy programs flooded the market from this first level of support.
| S&P 500 10-Minute |
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| S&P 500 60-Minute |
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| Apple Computer (AAPL) |
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Jeff Cooper is the creator of the Hit and Run Methodology
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. SEPT. SINGLE-FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS DOWN 6% TO 1.28MLN
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. SEPT. SINGLE-FAMILY STARTS UP 4.3% TO 1.43MLN
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 18% Y-O-Y, PERMITS DOWN 28%
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. SEPT BUILDING PERMITS FALL 6.3% TO 1.62MLN, 5-YEAR LOW
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. SEPT. HOUSING STARTS UP 5.9% TO 1.77MLN, 4-MONTH HIGH
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. SEPT CPI ENERGY PRICES DOWN 7.2%, BIGGEST SINCE NOV 05
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. CPI CORE UP 2.9% IN PAST 12 MONTHS
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. CPI UP 2.1% IN PAST 12 MONTHS
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. SEPT. CPI BIGGEST DROP SINCE NOV. 2005
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. SEPT. CORE CPI UP 0.2%, IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. SEPT. CPI DOWN 0.5% VS DOWN 0.3% EXPECTED
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. CPI CORE UP 2.9% IN PAST 12 MONTHS
8:30 AM ET 10/18/06
U.S. CPI UP 2.1% IN PAST 12 MONTHS
heißt das, dass die Kerninflationsrate in den letzten 12 Monaten mit 2,9 % deutlich höher lag als die unbereinigte Inflation, die demnach nur um 2,1 % stieg.
Das leuchtet mir nicht ein, weil die unbereinigte Rate ja das Öl enthält, die bereinigte nicht. Öl ist nach dem jüngsten Preisrückgang etwa so teuer wie vor einem Jahr (siehe Chart). Öl lag aber auch vor einem Jahr deutlich über dem historischen Schnitt. Es ist daher unerklärlich, wieso die unbereinigte CPI-Inflationsrate jetzt so stark gesunken sein soll.
Bislang war - so weit man zurückdenken kann - die bereinigte Inflations-Rate IMMER TIEFER als die unbereinigte. Sie wurde ja extra als Augenwischerei eingeführt, um das wahre Ausmaß der Inflation zu verstecken.
Fazit: Wohl wieder ein Husarenstück der US-Statistiker - als Wahlgeschenk an Bush.
crude.GIF (verkleinert auf 83%)
October, 2006
10/17/06 - Gold, Silver & Copper
As mentioned recently, I have not been writing about gold personally and presenting articles about gold in the News & Analysis section of the website because I am a gold bug. I am doing so because this is an asset class and sector that has been presenting ongoing buying opportunities. As you know, I have been taking advantage of those opportunities on down days, buying the sector from uncertain, uncommitted or downright scared holders. In today's emotional and turbulent markets, it seems many frown upon an old fashioned concept like "buy low and sell high", but I plan to stick to that crazy notion.
First and foremost in our value analysis is the Dow-Gold Ratio chart (see 10/4/06 entry below). This is self-explanatory; stocks simply became over-sold in their secular bear trend vs. gold. That condition is being corrected. When we look past the hyperbole of the Dow headlines and talk of the end of the bull market in the barbarous relic (now that the Fed has inflation under control - wink wink) we simply see a re-setting of the ratio, nothing more and nothing less. It pays to use technical analysis to help moderate emotion when trying to make sense of market trends and cycles.
Without further delay, I would like to present some relevant charts of gold, silver and copper, which benefit from different economic climates: Gold- Economic contraction, inflation (inflation is not only possible, but probable in a contraction since inflation is the increase of money supply) and by extension, the outright questioning of paper money backed by nothing but debt. Silver- More levered toward global economic growth, inflation, sometimes thought of as money - with historical record to back it up. Copper- A base metal critical to the global economic growth story.
In these charts we see conflicting signs for the liquidity-driven growth economy and by extension, the stock market. Gold and silver appear set up in similar fashion although gold has resistance that corresponds with a symmetrical triangle breakout whereas silver's comes well below such a breakout. Both metals sport some nice short-term bullish divergence, but gold's picture overall looks more bullish. A look at copper shows an ongoing consolidation with a nice spike up yesterday, although no breakout. If FrankenMarket's advance is real, expect confirmation by copper, a global growth lynchpin. Finally we have the Gold-Copper Ratio. Here we see gold has broken down below the double bottom, which if it holds would imply that global growth is to continue beyond the near-term. However, note the bullish divergence in gold vs. copper. It is common for breakdowns in an index or ratio chart to be reversed within a few days (head fake), so this will need confirmation in terms of time.
Summary: To these eyes (and I try to remain impartial) the metals offer conflicting signals as to the direction of economic growth (or lack thereof). Taking into account the stock market's over-extended status (not to mention the bearish VIX & VXN), gold's proximity to a significant breakout and copper's trend line way down near 280, one might at least strongly consider the possibility of some bearish surprises ahead for markets and commodities dependant on economic growth. Yes, I did buy the US Oil Fund (USO) per the 10/13/06 Letter entry, but the energies have already been hit hard as though there is going to be an economic slowdown issue and that purchase may only be for a swing trade. Gold miners may be a different story if confirmation of the above charts' signals proves bullish for gold. That is my favored scenario. If copper and to a lesser extent silver dominate in the near term, then the opposite is likely to occur; continued economic expansion, where gold and its miners are likely to underperform. ETF's and stocks relevant to the above include GLD, SLV, CEF, GG, SSRI, USO and PD, which interestingly has failed to attain new highs with the stock market.
10/14/06 - Actively Managed Portfolio Composition
As mentioned previously, I plan to update the portfolio's composition when it materially changes. Since the last update (see September archive at left), it has. It still contains a bias toward the conservative, however. Gold positions have been increased by buying on down days and though I was a commodity bear at CRB 350, that is not the case now that my target of 290 was nearly hit. Technically, the potential for at least a strong counter trend rally is set up although I am not convinced this is the beginning of the next secular leg up, especially for commodities. Precious metals may or may not be another matter.
Money Market (4.9% Interest) -- 32.5%
Gold & Silver Miners (w/ Significant Copper Exposure) -- 24.9%
Gold Bullion Fund (GLD) -- 12.3%
Short term US Treasury Bond Fund (SHY) -- 8.4%
BEARX Short Fund -- 5.3%
Cash Reserve -- 4.3%
Un-named Speculation -- 3.9%
Crude Oil Fund (USO) -- 2.8%
Uranium Miner -- 2.4%
Palladium Miner -- 2%
CBM Gas -- 1.2%
Portfolio is +20.97% year-to-date
With the CRB Index having nearly touched our long-standing target of 290, the stock market on a tear (contrary to popular Sept. / Oct. lore) and signs of global manufacturing strength gleaned through this writer's industry "channel checks", I think it is time to begin nibbling at the resource sectors, for at least a counter-trend cycle. Since my inclination is to buy low and sell high later (a novel approach, I know), and given that if the stock market is projecting something real as opposed to a Wall St. "wink wink" bonus season push, commodities will play a central role. They have been beaten senseless yet remain vital to global growth. I like that! As such and as mentioned on the blog, I recently added palladium miner Stillwater Mining (SWC) per this post. I also own uranium miner SXR Uranium One (SXR.TO) and 2 days ago added the US Oil Fund (USO), an ETF that follows the price of crude, per the technical setup on the following chart; short-term trying to double bottom with bullish RSI & MACD divergence.
As always when I take a position on a portfolio building block such as this, I am not expecting immediate results and would happily tuck the shares away as a portfolio diversifyer if need be. You buy from distraught holders who may have taken the previous cycle's myths a little too much to heart. You buy low. Others may wish to chase the broad market momo and indeed I may trade it a little bit, but for a longer term portfolio building block or technical and cyclical potential set-up, the beaten down resource sectors look interesting.
10/12/06 - Confused? Me too!
In case you have not visited the blog, I want to quickly note a couple posts here. In them you will see a fellow who is working through conflicting signals in trying to make sense of the current macro. Post 1 is about a conversation I just had with a machine tool dealer implying global manufacturing is booming and post 2 revolves around a release from Reuters on decelerating manufacturing expectations in the US. Make of them what you will, but on a quick churn through my gut, I can definitely say I have a level of confusion or put a better way, uncertainty about current macro events. More to come, you can be sure of that, because our investments should accurately reflect our interpretations of macroeconomic and market realities.
10/12/06 - Quick Chart Checkup
1) Although downtrend line and heavy resistance in the Dow-Gold ratio (monthly chart) are within spitting distance, the relative strength in stocks continues unabated. This tells us not to expect a reversal of recent fortunes overnight. It also tells us that stocks are not likely to roll over and dramatically under-perform gold in the near to intermediate term. 2) The Gold-Oil ratio (monthly) is a different story, where the barbarous relic looks short-term bullish and relatively strong. This trend, if it continues, would help the bottom lines of gold miners, who are as energy dependant as a business can get. 3) The bond herd has received its wakeup call over the last several sessions in the form of the Fed's jawbone. 10 year yields have broken the recent downtrend, but the ratio between long and short rates is critical to asset allocation. The yield spread (daily) sits at resistance while continuing to bullishly diverge. 4) We never tire of presenting this little warning chart; the VIX (weekly). One by one the bears are capitulating as FrankenMarket staggers higher, while at the same time the VIX' status is unchanged; double bottom in '05 and a falling wedge down to support. It pays to remember that this game is about risk vs. reward and not trying to capture the last 5%. Smart money buys major bottoms from scared retail and at tops the opposite happens. Do you think stocks offer a good risk/reward profile now, regardless of whether or not they have higher to go in the near term? Relevant symbols to the above are DIA, GLD, SHY and IEF.
10/10/06 - SOX Update
We have been using the Semi's as a leading indicator for technology and by extension, the broad market. A look at the SOX chart shows it has long since meandered across the uptrend line and currently resides in a consolidation pattern that at this point looks more bullish than anything; downward sloping after sharp rally.
But the SOX did break the uptrend line and that was an early warning about the current rally. A nice scenario would be the SOX failing at resistance (red) and the broken trend line in the low 460's and dropping all the way back to the 415 area for a test of the lows, leading the broad market lower for a much needed correction in the process. That would be a buying opportunity depending on the economic and liquidity backdrops at the time. But if the SOX strengthens from here, recall one of our original targets was over 500 off of an inverted head & shoulders bottom (head below 390, right shoulder at 430, left shoulder not shown on this chart and neckline around 450).
Unfortunately, we do not control the markets, we merely take our clues from them and adjust risk vs. reward along the way. The SOX is one of those indices that provides early clues and should be watched closely. A tradable proxy for the SOX is the Semiconductor Holders ETF (SMH).
10/9/06 - Interest Rate Assumptions
The stock market is obviously trying its best to spin Goldilocks into something tangible and enduring. The hot sectors of the recent past, namely energy, precious metals, general commodities and housing, have been taken down hard (and right on cue I might add) in the face of Fed tightening, which has supported the US Dollar, which in turn was absolutely vital. But among the debris, there stands "Dow all-time highs!!!" which I have been giving weight to as a possibility all along, although it was not a part of the "script" for this to happen concurrent with major commodity corrections. The script called for nearly all markets to decline pretty much in unison, except for the bond market, which would make a strong pretense toward bullishness, thus alleviating "fears" of inflation and laying the groundwork for continued inflationary policy.
But a funny thing happened along the way to a well choreographed "deflation scare"; the stock market, carrying the hopes, dreams and assumptions of millions, has carried on higher. Some gold bugs may feel the Fed has them in its gun sights and its evil henchmen, "da boyz" are carrying out the decimation of "honest money" so it will not shine the light of truth on the monetary games where credit creation runs amok and indeed becomes the economy. But I think there is something much less dramatic at play here; a mini-bubble is being inflated in the stock market that we may call a safe haven or refuge bubble. In a global casino, the participants are not aware of exit signs, they only see the next "play". Risk management is all but bred out of them. The slots have run cold? A small cluster of highly visible patrons migrate over to the black jack table. The herd eventually takes note and you know the result. The stock market is the black jack table.
Now, enough with the metaphor. This is more serious than finding the next hot game. Philly Fed chief Charles Plosser's views on inflation were noted on the blog last week as were my remarks about same. To this point, I have discounted Fed officials as merely playing their respective roles in the "deflation scare" script; jaw boning inflation while having every intention to ease policy, which would have the ultimate effect of you guessed it, inflation. But with the stock market, jobs/wages and even commercial real estate still in expansionary mode, it is apparent that market casino patrons are trying to hide out in still-hot games. Fed heads like Mr. Plosser see them and want them figuratively executed so that the Fed may finally stand down. Last week the bond market made a strong, impulsive move toward higher rates, challenging the assumptions of the bond herd with a hard slap in the face. Ten year yields are near resistance and have not broken the recent downtrend, but this bears watching, as does the ratio of long rates to 3 mo. T-Bills (yield spread) which is also trying to turn up amid bullish divergence.
Conclusion: While I have speculated on the possibility of a new stock bubble, considering the trepidation of certain Fed members along with herds of convention-minded bond investors fully buying in to the slowing economy (and by extension, inflation) story, along with "Dow all-time high!" headlines that may be at least moderating the public's bearishness on the stock market, and considering the technical setup of the precious metals and commodity universe, I would not be surprised to see a reversal over the coming weeks of assumption-based market trends that have held sway since mid-summer. Also note the charts of the VIX and VXN we have presented over recent weeks; they are not bullish. I do not discount a new stock bubble, but have remained firm that a correction of some substantial degree is needed first, during which Goldilocks is caught red handed with the baby bear's porridge, the yield spread bottoms and turns up, gold ends a multi-month (and healthy) correction and the stock market gives back recent gains as we find out that embedded and systemic inflation is not so easily eradicated. Relevent ETF symbols to this commentary are GLD, USO, DIA, SPY and QQQQ, along with bond funds TLT, IEF and SHY. Good luck whether your bias is long, short or sidelines.
10/6/06 - VIX Daily & Weekly
I began working at 5:30 this morning on today's entry; a look at George Linday's 3 Peaks and a Domed House. The result of 2 hours of work was the whole thing getting thrown in the virtual trash can when ultimately I could not correlate the Domed House to today's Dow. In its place, and given the amping up of stock bubble chatter, I present a couple pictures of the VIX in real time. I will let you draw your own conclusions as to what this may mean in the near term.
10/5/06 - Risk Vs. Reward
To make money as a trader or investor on a consistent basis, through ever-changing cycles and market environments, it is critical that we develop the ability to step outside the noise of the moment and gain big picture perspective. Boy is there a lot of noise at this moment! My main areas of interest, the gold/precious metals, commodities and the broad stock market are all at varying points in their risk/reward profiles. Since this Letter is designed as an ongoing, real time chronicle of markets, I will not post an extensive in-depth analysis of the current state of these three investment areas. Rather, I will summarize where I think each one is amidst the noise of the moment.
Gold/Precious Metals: We are searching for a bottom and as difficult as it feels for an investor to buy while being negatively reinforced through painful correction activity, those who wisely avoided chasing rallies and kept cash for buying on hard down days, will eventually be rewarded for their foresight with out-performance gains. I cannot say for sure whether yesterday, which felt like it included some capitulation activity in the sector (would-be Gold bugs or "inflation trade bulls" getting out at all costs) is the ultimate bottom for this correction. But buying in the depths of such days (I added Goldcorp and a couple smaller miners near the lows) should ultimately prove worth the risk involved. The correction is now nearly 5 months old and yesterday got within spitting distance of my target near 260 on the HUI. Note that I do not "go all in" but rather I am slowly accumulating and plan to have cash on hand in the event of Huey 260 and XAU 115. With the gold indices this close to our targets and the "Goldiocks scenario" becoming somewhat mature in the investing public's consciousness, I believe it is time to be looking for real value. Risk/Reward Profile: Excellent in near, intermediate and long term.
Commodities: I believe commodity markets may be setting up for at least a major bounce. For reference, see a chart of the CRB, which yesterday dipped to a new low below 293 (near our long-standing target of 290) before reversing upward to close above the previous day's close. Being one of those who discriminates between gold and general commodities, and given the current monetary backdrop and technical evidence in the bond market and economy, I cannot go long term bullish on commodities at this time. At the least, if the once and future "Helicopter Ben" fulfills his destiny and finds a way to inflate to beat the band, gold should be out ahead of silver as well as the general commodity pack. In other words, there would be time to accumulate commodities for the longer term based on signals that the "monetary metal" gives. Risk/Reward Profile: Good near term, neutral intermediate term and good in the long term.
Stock Market: What can I say? I own a grand total of ZERO bull stocks at this time. Herds of momo's, savvy traders, naive traders and heartfelt investors can ride this train. As I spotted this rally (beginning with the SOX downtrend break in August) and proceeded to absolutely NOT take advantage of it, the theme was that the market seemed to be running out of short-term bearish fuel to the downside. To be specific, the one indicator that "creeped me out" was the public bearishness and distrust of the market. Now, I do not count that as a major fundamental underpinning by any means, but FrankenMarket has spun a slowing economy and incorporated the public's bearishness, the shorts' gall (and attendant short-covering), the now prominent Goldilocks story, the old "wall of worry" chestnut, the election / manipulation hysteria and any other noisy idea it could get its hands on and rampaged higher. You don't argue with this type of activity. Many tried in 1999 and did not have the staying power to reach the ultimate peak and ride the whole mess to shorts' heaven. As a side note, the idea of "Dow 12K, 13K, heck why not 30K?" that I have noted over the last two years is bullish for stock prices, but that is about all it is bullish for. Either the broad market is the last holdout for bullish hope/denial/desperation and is about to follow the deflationist script into collapse or it is a harbinger of liquidity to come from the massive bond market and Bernanke's Fed telling us to look over here while warming up the choppers over there. Risk/Reward Profile: Near term highly unfavorable, intermediate neutral and long term undetermined/uncommitted.
10/4/06 - Dow/Gold Ratio, etc.
I do not want to beat a dead horse and in fact, when gold was pressing the 700's and the Dow was well contained in its ongoing bear market (in inflation-adjusted terms), I was noticeably quiet with regard to a pro-gold or anti-stock stance. So, all the writing about the gold sector lately is simply a manifestation of my perception of opportunity on the horizon.
As stated at the top of this page, the plan is for this letter to go subscription. But the markets have provided an opportunity in this regard as well. This is the reader's opportunity to watch a letter writer, in real time, working through one of the most challenging and exciting market and macroeconomic phases in his career. My portfolio still well-outperforms all major markets to this day (2006 YTD), but what good is that if my macro "assumptions" are not correct? "What have ya done for me lately?" might ask the reader. Good point! So I have decided to delay the launch of paid access until my main assumptions, my main beliefs and fundamental ideas are proven right. I love a challenge and for weeks now the markets, not necessarily unexpectedly, are moving against my core principles. If proven wrong and debt paper reigns supreme, I will likely take down this Letter, make adjustments as needed and keep the Biiwii website moving forward - free of charge. If I am proven right in my assumptions and fundamentals, you shall hear about it!
Anybody can make money and look smart when things are going their way. We are currently in a multi-month process of hunkering down in a deep cave of corrective activity to our investment stance. When we come out of the cave and again see the sunlight, I expect my patience to be rewarded. And I expect you will have had a good chance to evaluate this letter as it moves through the toughest of market environments. Let's see what the future holds. In the meantime, here is a monthly view of what I consider a crucial chart, the Dow-Gold Ratio. Stocks bullish in real terms? Nope, not yet.
10/3/06 - Quick Snapshot of a Few Markets
We used the SOX index as a leading indicator for the current rally in stocks and see no reason not to use it when looking for signs of reversal. CRB approaches our initial target near 290. The dollar remains firm and continues to "hang around" but has very strong resistance in the low 90's. Gold, meanwhile, is apparently intact and deciding whether to break up or down. Do not discount a shake-out move below 550 as real bull markets tend to shake off the fleas before moving higher.
10/2/06 - New Stock Market Bubble?
The new stock bubble theory is picking up steam. Here is an article by the Contrary Investor that is open to the possibility. In fact, the last paragraph sounds like it could have been written by this writer:
"Again, this discussion is not about fortune telling as it applies to the financial markets. It's about being aware of and accepting of historical seasonal tendencies and longer term equity market cycles that may indeed have meaning for what lies directly in front of us. It's about maintaining balance and flexibility."
One by one, respectable analysts I follow are coming on board to the idea of a bubble or at least an upside blow-off in stocks. For now I will take this as a necessary development in the market's effort to get as many people on the wrong side of the trade (long) as possible. But in a global-macroeconomic environment that has become a three ring circus of assets performing daring and breathtaking acts, we should not discount the idea of a great new stock bubble that climbs a "wall of worry" to dazzling hights, conveniently assuaging the investing public's fears about all that is wrong with a system where assets rise and economies grow because of global currency inflation and debt accumulation instead of real productivity. Yes, China is in some ways a model of ascending productivity, but insofar as it remains dependant on the the US' credit creation machine, it is vulnerable. The same goes for most of the rest of the industrialized world.
Here in the US, we are a "feel-good" nation not used to wallowing in the depths of the problems experienced routinely by much of the rest of the world. This has allowed the US to continue clinging to its debt for consumption raison d'être even as the consumer's supposed last liquidity umbilical cord is cut (housing ATM). Wouldn't a brand spanking new bubble in equities work wonders as scared, abundant and hot money panics into yet another asset class? This has become all about momentum and getting to the next hot play before the herd thunders in. It is why I call this a casino. It is advised to take care of real financial preparations and real life before you speculate in this circus. Then remain grounded and aware of all possibilities.
I expect Q4 to be supremely interesting and I also expect my portfolio to become more interesting, asset and hopefully performance-wise than it was in Q3, where surviving Goldilocks became my main priority. I will update the portfolio's composition as it materially changes. Good luck to all as we enter the witching season with contrarians getting contrary themselves, myths and stories being cemented and perceptions in flux.
At this point, the market looks ready to at least take a breather. At most, the VIX will break up from the wedge and reign havoc down on complacent bulls. But where would that impulse come from? At this time, I would have to conclude that absent any fundamentally earth shaking news, this is a market that wants to go higher as seemingly silly as that sounds.
Relevant ETF symbols include SPY, DIA and QQQQ for tracking and participating in the US stock market's fortunes, whether long or short.
10/1/06 - Manipulation?
Michael Nystrom of BullNotBull, a straight shooter whom I consider a virtual friend has just written a short piece called Manipulation. In it he shows the cover that Newsweek readers (Oct. 2nd issue) in Europe, Asia and Latin America saw titled "Losing Afghanistan" with a picture of a determined looking, Talibanesque man toting an RPG launcher while readers in the US are treated to a cover on the same date detailing Annie Leibovitz' "Life in Pictures". Huh? He then goes on to extrapolate these synergistic keeping up of "appearances" to the decline in the price of oil and the steady march upward of FrankenMarket (check out that video on the front page of this website - if you can't laugh at this stuff you very well may cry) in the run-up to the elections.
I am torn. On the one hand the charts are intact and things seem to be making sense as long as these hope and denial driven rising wedges resolve to the downside and provide a good lesson to greedy, lazy bulls that it just ain't that easy. On the other hand I see the herds driving the bond market higher on the conventional wisdom that the economy, driven by a real estate meltdown in the making, will decelerate markedly and contain inflation (we call this crack pipe thinking, don't we?). At the same time if the S&P drops 5 points it seems that some entity feels a desperate need to swoop in and buy with both hands. What a bargain! My scope here is to get the markets right. It is not to worry about manipulation (yes, I think it exists) because as I have written for years, I believe the whole mess is devoid of intrinsic value in an age where the debt for consumption ethic dwarfs the stodgy idea that productivity actually matters. So the question for me remains "how long can this entire game keep up appearances?", not whether it is valid or not. If indeed the markets are keeping up appearances, the average American may not even be falling for it. My aunt, a successful business person who is not known for harboring the alternative economic views of this writer is downright freaked out about two things; the Dow's approach of all-time highs at this time when it "should" be going down and something Bob Woodward wrote implying that things are coming apart at the seams, from what I gathered in talking to her.
I am bothered by the dropping of M3 statistics from the public record and often I think things like "how are these guys getting the juice into FrankenMarket without gold and commodities knowing about it?" but then I look at my Dow-Gold ratio chart and see that stocks have been absolutely bludgeoned for years when measured in gold during their supposed bull market (in nominal dollars) and were due for a relief rally. I see Goldilocks and a lot of business as usual on Wall St. I also see a bearish public, which truthfully gave me the creeps and kept me far away from any major short stance. Since the day (a much more innocent day of my youth) I and a couple friends allowed ourselves to be scammed by some two-bit boiler room operation (hello Ida, may you...) I have realized that what we call "Wall St." includes some pretty unsavory characters. What I only began to realize in the last few years is the depth to which the entire financial services industry is compromised by a combination of overly conventional thinking, ignorance and in some cases, misdirected priorities. I see a lot more stupidity and laziness than pure evil, but in the final analysis none of those is a good prescription for people who want to maximize their capital as safely and sensibly as possible.
So yes, Biiwii being Biiwii, we allow for the likelihood that manip is present and accounted for. We also see the massive, plodding financial services industry and the huge and frenetic hedge fund universe out there gaming. "Hey batter batter, he's no batter.............SWING BATTER!!". Everybody's in the game and truth be told, I am beyond worrying about whether the game is rigged; it is. I am here to use the game to my advantage while it exists. Manipulation or no.
Have a swell weekend.
Why I'm Not Buying It
By Mark Manning
TheStreet.com Contributor
10/18/2006 10:00 AM EDT
Day after day we hear the same story: New highs for the Dow; this is the best tape we have seen for years. This is the kind of hype that draws investors into an overly complacent state of mind. If you are the type who stays fully invested through all the market's ups and downs and you are in value-type Dow stocks, you are probably doing well. If you are invested in technology, small- and mid-caps or commodities, you are probably lagging the large-cap indices at this point. Other investors who keep a diversified portfolio probably haven't fully benefited from the large-cap rally; this includes most money managers like me. When managing money, you can't get too overweighted in one sector -- we all saw what happened to the hedge fund Amaranth when it overbet the natural gas sector. So you raise cash in areas that are extended, and you move to cash or buy undervalued sectors. I have been much more aggressive in raising cash as the market has rallied. I tend to be an aggressive buyer when the odds and indicators are on my side and neutral when they are not. I would rather buy into undervalued sectors when there is a large disconnect between value and price. As many columnists and I have pointed out throughout the Dow's rally, we have had quite a few negative divergences, and we've been in dangerous months in the consistent four-year cycle, which usually produces a low in the fall before the market rallies over the following two years. Since a low has not occurred, a few readers have inquired as to why I haven't jumped on the bandwagon and embraced the rally. I normally believe you should stay in the intermediate- to long-term trend when a market is moving. However, I will become a contrarian when my indicators or seasonal factors weigh against a move in the market. Hence, my stance over the last few months. The only contrarian indicator that I didn't follow was that most traders and columnists were seeing and acting on the same information. It is quite common that when everyone sees the same thing, it doesn't happen that way. It's a basic fact that every trader misses some moves in the market. What is important is that you don't miss major primary bull markets. That means not trying to call tops or bottoms, and taking the 60% or 70% of the move out of the middle. Here's why I didn't embrace the current rally:
- The first part of the uptrend, until mid-September, was on declining volume.
- The ratio of new highs to new lows was not dramatically expanding.
- The ratio of advancing stocks to declining issues was lagging.
- The transports, small- and mid-caps, and semiconductors were not participating in the move.
- We didn't have any leadership from solid growth stocks.
- Signs of a slowing economy with lingering signs of inflation.
- An inverted yield curve.
- A bubble in the housing market in several areas of the country.
- The move to large-cap value is usually a defensive position for institutions.
- We were entering what is usually the worst three months of the year.
- We are due for a four-year presidential cycle low that normally happens in the fall of the second year.
| Stocks Above 40-Day MA |
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| Click here for larger image. |
The stock/bond ratio is throwing off an extreme overvalued reading. This happens when stocks become a larger part of investment portfolios as asset managers tend to sell them and put the money into bonds and vice versa. This indicator measures the ratio between these two indices and then transforms it into an expression which shows how extreme it is compared to other recent readings. When stocks become "overvalued" relative to bonds, then you often see stocks decline and bonds rise. When stocks become "undervalued" according to the ratio, then stocks typically rise, while bonds fall (i.e. yields rise).
| Stock/Bond Ratio |
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| Click here for larger image. |
| Source: SentimenTrader.com |
Another indicator flashing red is a stochastic based on the Commitment of Traders Report, which tracks positions in the futures market. You generally want to be on the same side as the commercial traders once their positions reach an extreme. When they become net long to an extreme, then we should expect higher prices. Conversely, when they reach a net short extreme, then we should be cautioned that lower prices are likely. The levels below can be used to determine when net positions reach an extreme. When positions reach "positive" territory (i.e. 80 and above), then conditions are getting ripe for higher prices. When they become even more extreme and reach 90 and above, then higher prices are usually quick to follow. Vice versa for negative conditions.
| Commitment of Traders |
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| Click here for larger image. |
| Source: SentimenTrader.com |
The level of cash held by mutual funds is still floating around 4%. A low level of cash is not usually positive for the market.
| Mutual Fund Cash |
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| Click here for larger image. |
| Source: SentimenTrader.com |
Another interesting indicator is SentimenTrader's Smart Money Confidence Index. Jason Goepfert from SentimenTrader.com pointed out Monday that its Smart Money Confidence Index dropped to a four-year low of 29%, which is also one of the lowest readings in the past 15 years (most of the other low readings were clustered in 1999, 2000 and 2001). The Dumb Money Confidence Index -- the better timing gauge of the two -- ticked up to 54%. The spread between the two is now -25%, the worst since December 2004 and definitely in the warning zone.
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| Click here for larger image. |
| Source: SentimenTrader.com |
These indicators aren't pointing to a collapse in the market -- they simply show overextended situations. I will remain in the neutral camp until my indicators show that the risk is dramatically lower in the general market. From a long-term perspective, over the next two years, I believe the four-year cycle will play out, and we will have a very good market. However, until I see some solid leadership and confirmation, I will stay with selective stocks and sectors that I have highlighted over the past couple of months: steel, biotech, technology and maybe housing stocks for a trade. I am also closely watching the oil stocks and commodities for an entry point.
Mark Manning, AAMS, is an Accredited Asset Management Specialist and Registered Investment Advisor with Butler, Wick & Co., where he specializes in wealth management. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Manning appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
plus news zu homebuildern in crashmodus sowie der lächerlich niedrigen kreditvorsorge bei den us kreditinstituten uvm
http://www.immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
plus news zu homebuildern in crashmodus sowie der lächerlich niedrigen kreditvorsorge bei den us kreditinstituten uvm
http://www.immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
16:00 (MEZ)
Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zu den US-amerikanischen Frühindikatoren (Leading Indicators) für September 2006
Die Frühindikatoren sind um 0,1 % gestiegen. Erwartet wurde ein Anstieg um 0,3 % nach zuvor -0,2 %.
First Crack in the Bulls' Armor
By Cody Willard
TheStreet.com Contributor
10/19/2006 9:05 AM EDT
Once again on Wednesday, the market closed on the upswing and near the day's highs. The pattern of strong closes continues, and that keeps stoking the bulls.
The fundamental-loving bulls see their stocks consistently moving higher or holding their gains. It's been a nice, steady, stair-step rally. That keeps those fundie bulls feeling good about their analysis and confident that the market will continue to power higher.
And the technical-analysis-loving bulls have their conventional wisdom that strong closes are a bullish pattern. So the recent closes keep the TA bulls feeling good about their analysis and confident that the market will continue to power higher.
Nobody has made a dime trying to call a top in this market, and perhaps that's still the case. But the ugly results from most of the semiconductor companies and the nasty 2.5% hit they took yesterday are a first chink in that fundamental, emotional and technical bull armor. I've been considering adding to my Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) puts, and I still see the best approach to this market as "sell semis; buy tech."
So many earnings reports are pouring in that it's hard to see straight. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is getting crushed today off a drop in gross margins and its inability to execute in new technologies that it will need to have any success against Intel (INTC). With Intel's big inventory load, the pricing power in that PC processor world will be nothing to write home about.
eBay's (EBAY) endless lowering of guidance continues. However, when I listened to the call, I thought the company might finally have gotten estimates low enough that it could stop this pattern of lowering guidance, slightly beating, lowering guidance and then slightly beating.
Apple (AAPL) is the toast of Wall Street this morning. Its iPod sales were pretty good, and the Street likes that Apple said it saw a good uptick in demand when it rolled out the new nanos. Mac unit sales were up 100,000 or so above most of the analysts' estimates, and that has people into the whole "halo effect" again. I think Apple is headed much higher over time, and I'll continue to hold mine, but I wouldn't chase this stock today.
Nokia (NOK) is impressive, especially in the units-sold metric: 88 million in one quarter. The stock is down a bit this morning, in large part because the average selling price of the handsets fell about 10%.
Du propagierst als Trendfolge-Depp doch auch sonst immer, mit dem Strom zu schwimmen. Wieso dann hier nicht? ;-))
Was mir Gelegenheit gibt, Dich gleich noch mal auf Deinen letzten größeren Trendfolge-Deppen-Fehler aufmerksam zu machen: Als ich im Mai 2006 beim Dollarkurs von 1,29 meinen Dollar-Long-Thread eröffnet hatte...
http://www.ariva.de/board/255969
... hast Du seitenlang gegiftet, dass das von mir im Eingangsposting dieses Threads vermutete Doppeltop von EUR/USD bei 1,30 eine reine Illusion sei und dass ich offenbar "zu dumm" sei, den klaren Trend beim Dollar "zu erkennen" wie Du, der Deiner Ansicht doch klar bis 1,35 und darüber hinaus gehen sollte. Deine "Beweise" kamen dann immer als Intraday-Ausbrüche. Von diesen Ausbrüchen haben wir seit Mai wohl an die 500 gesehen, und mindestens ebensoviele Intraday-Abstürze. Fakt aber ist, dass EUR/USD letzte Woche bis unter 1,25 fiel - immerhin 4 cents tiefer als bei Thread-Eröffnung. Außerdem hat sich das Doppeltop bei 1,30 fast exakt bewahrheitet (Höchstkurs war 1,2985). Deine 1,35 hat der Dollar de fact seit Mai NIE GESEHEN.
Dies nur zu Deiner Info und zur Qualität Deiner "Widerlegungen" längerer Trends. Um die auszumachen, benötigt man Analysefähigkeiten, die Du offenbar nicht hast. Wer wie ein dressierter Affe Trends verlängert, fällt irgendwann vom Ast ;-))
Ich wünsch Dir einen guten Sturz.
Beste Grüße vom Gesellen 
18:00 (MEZ)
Ort: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Veröffentlichung des Philadelphia Fed Indices (Philadelphia Fed Survey) für Oktober 2006
Der Philly Fed Index notiert bei -0,7. Erwartet wurde der Philly Fed Index im Bereich 6,5 bis 8,0 nach zuvor -0,4.