Trading Bougainville Copper (ADRs) 867948
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Barrick Gold: Ist Kupfer in Zukunft das bessere Gold?
Lieber Investor,
vor gut 6 Wochen am 10. März hatte ich Ihnen darüber berichtet, dass der schnell wachsende Kupferproduzent Equinox Minerals bald selbst das Ziel einer Übernahme werden könnte.
In der Zwischenzeit hat sich meine Einschätzung bestätigt, doch es ist nicht wie zunächst zu erwarten war ein großer Kupferproduzent, der nach Equinox Minerals seine Hand ausstreckt, sondern der weltweit führende Goldproduzent Barrick Gold.
Barrick Gold: Ist Kupfer in Zukunft das bessere Gold?
Es ist ganz gewiss keine Übernahme wie jede andere, sondern eine mit Signalwirkung: Barrick Gold, der weltweit führende Goldproduzent, wird Equinox Minerals übernehmen. Damit deutet sich nicht nur für Barrick Gold selbst ein klarer Strategiewechsel an, denn Equinox Minerals ist kein primärer Goldproduzent, sondern ein mittelgroßes auf den Kupferbergbau spezialisiertes Unternehmen. Auch für die gesamte Goldbranche wird diese Übernahme eine Signalwirkung haben.
In den vergangenen Jahren ist Equinox durch eigene Übernahmen sehr schnell gewachsen. Dass dieses Unternehmen selbst nun zu einem Übernahmeziel wird, kommt nicht unerwartet. Schon eher überrascht, dass es kein klassischer Kupferproduzent oder ein großer Mischkonzern mit Kupferschwerpunkt wie Rio Tinto ist, der Equinox übernimmt, sondern ein bislang reinrassiger Goldkonzern.
Gegenüber anderen großen Bergbaukonzernen wurden die reinen Goldproduzenten an der Börse in der Vergangenheit immer mit einem gewissen Aufschlag gehandelt. Diese Zeiten scheinen nun zu Ende zu gehen, denn für immer mehr klassische Goldproduzenten werden die neben dem Gold geförderten Beiprodukte, allen voran Kupfer und Silber, immer wichtiger.
Börse gibt reinrassigen Goldproduzenten keinen Bonus mehr
Das veranlasst nicht nur die Börse dazu den bislang gewährten Aufschlag für die ausschließliche Goldproduktion zurückzunehmen. Es deutet sich in der Goldbranche schon seit einiger Zeit ein Strategiewechsel an, der durch den jüngsten Schritt von Barrick Gold nun an Gewicht und Dynamik gewinnt.
Geologisch war es schon immer so, dass auch bei reinrassigen Goldproduzenten neben dem Gold auch andere Metalle gefördert wurden. Besonders jene Erzkörper, welche Kupfer-Gold-Porphyre enthalten, waren schon immer reich an Beiprodukten. Doch vor dem Hintergrund der geringeren Preise für Silber, Kupfer und andere Industriemetalle spielten die Beiprodukte lange Zeit nur eine untergeordnete Rolle.
Inzwischen hat nicht nur das Silber relativ zum Goldpreis stark aufgewertet. Auch Kupfer ist mit Preisen um 10.000 US Dollar je Tonne deutlich teurer als in der Vergangenheit. Entsprechend hoch sind die Deckungsbeiträge, die diese beiden Beiprodukte heute schon liefern.
Beiprodukte werden immer wichtiger
Hat sich ein Goldkonzern früher bei seinen Aktionären fast dafür entschuldigt, dass er nebenbei auch noch etwas Kupfer oder Silber gefördert hat, so sind beide Metalle heute zu wichtigen Rechnungsgrößen aufgestiegen. Ihnen ist nicht nur die Aufmerksamkeit des Managements sicher, sondern auch die der Analysten und Anleger.
Das führt in einer ersten Veränderung dazu, dass die Erträge aus den Nebenprodukten bei der Bewertung einer Lagerstätte nicht mehr vernachlässigt werden. Auch ohne gezielte Zukäufe in anderen Sektoren verschieben sich die primären Goldkonzerne in der Wahrnehmung der Investoren deshalb langsam in Richtung Mischkonzern.
Die nun von Barrick Gold angestrebte Übernahme hat jedoch eine andere Qualität, denn obwohl auch in den Kupferlagerstätten von Equinox Gold anzutreffen ist, wird Equinox dennoch primär als Kupfer- und nicht als Goldproduzent gesehen, denn der Kupferanteil überwiegt eindeutig. Neben Gold sind in den Equinox Minen auch Kobalt und Uran vorhanden, sie fallen in der Gesamtbewertung jedoch nicht ins Gewicht.
Kupfer wird für Barrick Gold zum zweiten Standbein
Barrick Gold kauft mit Equinox einen der 20 größten Kupferproduzenten der Welt zu. Das ist ein klares Novum und es markiert eine Änderung der Strategie: Konzentration auf das Gold war gestern; Diversifikation und ein breit aufgestellter Produktionsmix scheint das Zauberwort für die Zukunft zu sein.
Bei der Vorstellung der Übernahme sprach Barricks CEO Aaron Regent deshalb auch davon, dass Equinox nicht nur einen guten Wert darstelle, der sonst möglicherweise an die Chinesen gefallen wäre. Weil das Goldpotential in den Equinox Lagerstätten begrenzt ist, wies Aaron Regent deshalb darauf hin, dass es Barrick strategisches Ziel sei steigende Gold- und Kupferreserven auszuweisen.
Auch werde der Goldanteil, den ein Investor mit jeder Barrick Aktie erwerbe, durch den Zukauf nicht verwässert. Vielmehr schaffe die Akquisition im Umfeld des starken Kupferpreises weiteres Potential. In diesem Zusammenhang wies Regent darauf hin, dass zusammen mit der Zaldivar Mine und dem Cerro Casale Projekt in Chile Barrick nun über signifikantes Wachstumspotential in zwei der aussichtsreichsten Kupferregionen der Welt verfüge.
An seinem Ziel, die eigene Goldproduktion innerhalb der nächsten fünf Jahre auf 9 Mio. Unzen zu steigern, hält Barrick auch weiterhin fest. Der Zukauf von Equinox zeigt aber, dass es auch für die ganz großen der Branche immer schwieriger wird genügend reinrassige Goldprojekte zu finden.
Der Schritt in den Kupfermarkt folgt deshalb zum Teil auch der geologischen Not: Die großen, einfach zu findenden Goldvorkommen sind bereits entdeckt und zunehmend erschöpft. Für die Goldproduktion in den nächsten Jahrzehnten verheißt das nichts gutes, für den Goldpreis könnte sich daraus jedoch eine veritable Stütze ergeben, denn es wird zunehmend schwieriger neues Gold auf den Markt zu bringen.
Ich wünsche Ihnen einen erfolgreichen Börsentag und grüße Sie herzlich
Ihr
Dr. Bernd Heim
Geologists regard Papua New Guinea (PNG) as a rousing copper/gold province. “It’s a place where geologists have great fun,” says Harmony Gold CEO Graham Briggs, who is eager to build Harmony’s second PNG mine in joint venture with Australian major Newcrest.
Harmony, a $6,5-billion company, has a 50:50 management partnership with Newcrest, which is a $30-billion company.
Briggs makes no bones about the pro- pensity of PNG’s near-mine communities to protest about any errant environmental behaviour that may occur.
For instance, the joint venture’s Hidden Valley mine is being called to account for discharging sediment into a nearby river.
“It was simply sediment, not tailings, and, yes, there’s a bit of legal action, but the communities have been compensated,” Briggs explains.
PNG has adopted tough World Bank environmental protection standards and miners need to establish nurseries to replace vegetation on steep hills in order to prevent erosion, which can lead to land slides.
Malaria and waterborne diseases are prevalent in the remote Wafi-Golpu area, where Harmony intends building the new mine and where health services are having to be expanded to serve a community of 2 500 people, most of whom speak pidgin English. Since the joint venture has been active in the area, it has managed to get infant mortality down to zero.
“Even at this early stage, we can con- fidently say that Wafi-Golpu is going to be a mine. There’s no doubt about it,” Briggs tells Mining Weekly.
PNG is seismically active, but Briggs points out that most of the seismicity takes place 30 km below ground. This results in little more than “a rumble and a shake” on surface, which engineers take into account when designing mine infrastructure.
The PNG government has the right to buy up to 30% of mining projects, but is required to contribute in full if it opts to do so. There is no “free carry”, says Briggs.
Although the government did not follow its rights at Hidden Valley, which is expected to produce at a rate of 280 000 oz/y for the next 14 years, it could still decide to do so at Wafi-Golpu, where capital of $3-billion to $4-billion will be required to build the mine.
Because of its high grades, Wafi-Golpu is not regarded as being a “capital-sensitive” project.
Harmony CFO Hannes Meyer reports that Wafi-Golpu is well positioned for cash generation and he also foresees that $500-million to $1-billion will be raised by selling copper forward (see Two-Minute Interview on page 9).
The Wafi part of Wafi-Golpu is a gold- only resource, and the Golpu part is a copper/ gold porphyry.
Total joint venture expenditure on Wafi-Golpu to date has been $300-million and the current year’s budget is $150-million.
Continual exploration drilling since 2007 indicates the potential presence of 38-million gold equivalent ounces, with recent drilling unearthing a long 883 m of strike with grades of 5 g/t to 7g/t gold equivalent – higher than those at Oyu Tolgoi, in Mongolia, and the renowned Grasberg, in Indonesia.
“Wafi-Golpu’s grade beats everything around it,” says Briggs (see diagram).
The calculations have been done using a copper price of $4 412/t and a gold price of $950/oz.
The total cost of mining is expected to be $25/t, and revenue of $100/t to $300/t is expected, which makes Wafi-Golpu a high-margin prospect.
When Harmony has to raise the Wafi-Golpu capital in 2014/15, its South African projects will no longer be requiring high levels of capital.
In fact, Phakisa, Doornkop and Kusasalethu are likely to be generating cash.
Harmony is thus eager to become increasingly involved in PNG, which is currently the world’s eleventh-largest gold-producing country.
Where else in the world, Briggs asks, can an explorer go from zero to 70-million ounces of gold equivalent in ten years, as Harmony and Newcrest have done with their PNG Morobe joint venture?
By the end of 2011, Morobe expects to be at 100-million ounces of gold equivalent from its resource bases at Hidden Valley, Hamata, Golpu, Wafi, Nambonga, Golpu Extension and Wafi-Golpu.
“And there’s more to be found,” says Briggs.
Many Geologists
The exploration joint venture has 20 geologists and Harmony has another nine geologists in the areas where it owns 100% of the assets.
Briggs, himself a geologist, worked in PNG from 2003 up until he received the call to replace Bernard Swanepoel as Harmony CEO at the end of 2007.
Geologists working on the eastern half of the island of New Guinea – the Indonesian provinces of Papua and West Papua are on the western portion – know that the region’s copper/gold porphyries are drill-intensive.
A dominant geological feature is the mobile belt, where two continents have crashed together, resulting in the formation of the renowned Ok Tedi, Frieda River and Porgera deposits, as well Bougainville and Lihir on scattered offshore islands.
North of PNG is Japan, the scene of another recent devastating earthquake, and to the south is Australia. In between are tectonic plates that give rise to volcanic, tsunami and quake activity within the so-called Rim of Fire, extending down to South America, which is also an acclaimed copper/gold porphyry region.
PNG’s oldest rocks are 14-million years old and many are only three-million to four-million years of age, which is far younger than the rocks of South Africa’s Witwatersrand, which are close to three- billion years old.
A crashing together of continental plates has caused some zones to rise and others to fall, creating plumes of faulted and complex copper/gold porphyries, which tend to be clustered.
The ‘blind’ below-surface ringlet deposits are elusive and can only be dis- covered by the drill bit.
Golpu, for instance, a copper/gold deposit, is 150 m to 200 m below the surface, and Wafi, which is closer to surface, is a gold- only deposit.
Golpu is already known to be a 500- million-ton copper resource, and the combined high-grade Wafi-Golpu has 38-million tons of gold equivalent.
New Mine By 2016
Harmony expects the new Wafi-Golpu copper/gold mine to come into production in 2016.
The project’s initial $3-billion price tag was linked to mining taking place at a rate of 20-million tons a year, but current thinking is that actual output using the block-cave mining method may be 30-million tons a year, which would require more capital.
Block-cave mining is considered low-cost mining and the final cost will be known when the prefeasibility study is concluded.
The JSE- and NYSE-listed Harmony is committed to providing half of whatever capital is required.
The challenge is to build a mine as quickly as possible, probably while generating early cash flow from the high-grade Wafi areas and sinking a decline shaft into Golpu.
The expectation is that mining will take place at a rate of 30-million tons a year in order to yield 700 000 oz/y of gold and 300 000 t/y of copper.
“There’s no doubt that this is a corker when it comes to grade,” says Briggs.
He sees Wafi-Golpu as having the potential to change Harmony significantly, with the company’s longer-term wholly owned tenements providing ongoing momentum.
The wholly owned Southern Highlands portion, for example, is near the proven Porgera, where there are 20-million ounces, and Ok Tedi and Frieda, which each have 14-milion ounces.
Every time Harmony drills “another corker of a hole”, its share price is likely to reach a new high, as it did after the March 30 Wafi-Golpu announcement.
Edited by: Martin Zhuwakinyu
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/...ogical-superlatives-2011-05-06
Bougainville Copper Limited (Rio Tinto: 53.8 per cent)
Access to the site in Papua New Guinea remains restricted; however the company continues to progress plans for exploration and mining and is committed to working closely with the country’s leaders and local landowners.
Facilitated by the Bougainville division of lands and physical planning, discussions will cover areas of mining and development, customary land management, mission and plantation land acquisition and PNG land law reform.
In a district land workshop report circulated for pre-consultation in preparation for the summit, the report said 97% of land on Bougainville was customary owned yet no protection was given through any legislation.
The remaining 3% of land is state land for public purposes and leasing.
“During the Bougainville crisis, many lease holders abandoned their land and never returned, including residential, commercial, government and plantation land,” the report said.
It said misinformation was spread during that time that all alienated land had returned to traditional landowners.
“This was fallacy and has caused significant confusion over land tenure in Bougainville.”
The Bougainville Land Summit, a first for the region, will seek to address these concerns through discussions on land use and natural resources, customary land rights and obligations and land disputes and legal processes.
The guest speakers to the summit will include ABG minister of lands and natural resources Michael Oni, land experts Dr Jim Fingleton and Dr Ruth Spriggs and Bishop Bernard Unabali, who will present an overview of land acquired by missions.
Interessante neue Erkenntnisse auf www.bougainville-copper.eu !
Source: Post-Courier
Rebel wages war on ABG
ONE of Bougainville’s notorious Me’ekamui rebel hardliners has declared war on his own Autonomous Government leaders with a bitter feeling towards the empty promises made to them.
Damien Koike had launched an operation code named “Operation Leader out” in their base in Lukauko village, south Bougainville. When asked why he was doing that, he said that was to counter the empty promises of the ABG, but could not further speak on the matter.
Bougainville’s top cop ACP Thomas Eluh confirmed the operation was launched but could not elaborate on the issue. And Police Station Command in Buin said the ABG should now take an immediate step to address the issue because it has now become political to address.
The United Nations and the Churches are also aware of this operation but could not fully comment on the latter.
But Moongai homeguards said that villagers in Wisai received a threatening phone call from their VSAT from one of the criminal element members saying their now well equipped and ready to move and execute the operation in Konnou constituency and in South Bougainville. Wisai Liberation Movement (WILMO) commander Philip Pusua confirmed the report to the Post Courier last week.
But Me’ekamui Defence Force Commander Chris Uma when contacted told the Post Courier he was the original Me’ekamui and chief and the actions by Koike were not supported by him and his soldiers. Moses Pipiro’s hardline executives in Panguna also said that Koike was doing this alone, not with their support and advised they will travel to Buin this week to try and sort the problem out. Late last week, the Post-Courier received a report from four other armed factions in Buin claiming they were ready to combat and counter the operation. They claimed they were fed up of the actions by Koike and his men.
Reports detailed the person who issued the threat was one of those who allegedly fired upon civilians over the Easter weekend instantly killing one of them.
“Now the ABG leadership is under threat from these criminals, and the only way now is law and order needs to take its course, these people need to be arrested and face the full force of the law now before it’s too late…these are mere criminals taking the Law into their own hands as if their kings of this land. “We find it hard to abide by the peace agreement because if we do and we will surely die at the hands of these criminals because we have taken up arms to protect ourselves and our people in the Konnou constituency.”
http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=60474
Posted at 07:57 on 09 May, 2011 UTC
The president of the autonomous Papua New Guinea province of Bougainville says they’re making progress in plans for a possible re-opening of the huge Panguna copper and gold mine.
Mining at Panguna is seen as the key to the province advancing economically.
John Momis says he’s waiting for the six landowning groups around the mine to form a representative body that can negotiate with his and the national government and Bougainville Copper Ltd.
This comes amid continuing opposition to renewed mining at Panguna, including from elements of the former militant group, the Me’ekamiu, but Mr Momis says he’s unconcerned by that.
“We can’t listen and we can’t be deterred by such mutterings. The landowners have a lot to say. We do realise that there are people throughout Bougainville who claim that the Panguna mine should benefit all of us, of course it will benefit all of us, but we must get the landowners, under the law, to agree to have the mine open.”
News Content © Radio New Zealand International
PO Box 123, Wellington, New Zealand
Anleger verdienen mehr als 6`000% in 24 Monaten –
nächster potenzieller Tenbagger steht in den Startlöchern!
|
von Thomas Godt
Dienstag 10.05.2011, 10:09 Uhr
London (BoerseGo.de) – An den Rohstoffbörsen setzt sich die Erholung für Kupfer nach dem Ausverkauf der vergangenen Woche fort. Marktbeobachter weisen aber darauf hin, dass die Sorgen um die Euro-Zone weitere Gewinne begrenzen können. „Es sieht so aus, als seien wir in einer technischen Erholung nach dem Ausverkauf der vergangenen Woche“, sagt Ling Yu Hui von Jinhui Futures gegenüber Reuters. China hat im April 262.676 Tonnen Kupfer importiert, ein Rückgang um 13,7 Prozent aber im Rahmen der Erwartungen. Jetzt werden die Inflationsdaten aus China erwartet. Möglicherweise drohen erneute Dämpfungsmaßnahmen, sollte die Teuerung sich nicht nach unten bewegen. In der jüngsten Ausgabe von Platow Rohstoffe wird darauf hingewiesen, dass Kupfer einen Blick wert ist, da sich an den fundamentalen Gründen für Kupfer nichts geändert habe
Die nächsten 4 bis 5 Jahre sind ausgesprochen spannend.
Spannend ist auch die Frage, wird die erwartete Aktienkursexplosion eher am Ende dieser Zeitspanne stattfinden oder eher am Anfang?
By Aloysius Laukai
Arawa
Papua New Guineans are the resources owners on their land and as such they should benefit from the development of these resources.
President of the ABG, Hon John Momis said while we own these mineral and other resources, the benefits go to outsiders.
President Momis said everything must be done to make resource owners get a fair and better share of the benefits from these resources.
Speaking to participants of a three day land submit in Arawa, today the president said foreign companies would continue to develop our natural rich resources for the next 30 years until we have the capacity and know how to develop and manage these resources on our own.
He said the government has a duty to protect these resources for the future generations.
The ABG President says Bougainville is in a better position now to make changes to laws governing the ownership of natural resources in the region.
According to the national constitution, people own the land, but the state owns all the resources under the ground.
The president says this law can be changed to give the people the right to own everything on top and underneath the land.
Möchten sie (ABG) BCL eher enteignen oder verschlafen sie den Rohstoffboom?
Es hat sich vieles gebessert im Vergleich zu den letzten zwei Jahren, aber machmal denke ich die Interessengruppen (Landowner, ABG etc) sind nur auf "Funding" aus.
Alles spricht für eine Wiedereröffnung der Mine.
Geduld ist wohl nötig, denke 3-5 Jahre.
Wünsche allen ein erfolgreiches Investment
alles gut...
Wer das ist, lesen Sie auf www.bougainville-copper.eu !
http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20110511/wehome.htm
THE Panguna landowners want the Autonomous Bougainville Government and the National Government to facilitate an immediate environmental study for the Panguna Mine before any arrangements are made.
Lower tailings and Upper Tailings Associations, including other representatives from the six mine lease areas, met on Saturday in Panguna to discuss the way forward for the mine and came up with recommendations, first on the list, the environmental study issue.
Benedine Kiraa of the Lower Tailings told the Post-Courier that they have agreed for the environmental study to be carried out immediately and by an independent body, with one or two representatives of their choice.
Ms Kiraa said they also discussed a proposal by a new landowner group to be called the Coastal Sea Tailings, one that will cover parts of Torokina.
They want to form a new mine lease association to bring the number to eight mine lease areas.
This is because there is already another group, the Middle Tailings, covering parts of Pirurari and Topu School which have also put in a proposal for the incorporation of their association.
Lower tailings of the Panguna mine were the most affected during the Bougainville crisis as it is the electorate which accommodates the Jaba River and its tailings.
ABG advised that environmental scientists were already engaged and will soon start their expedition.
Source: Post-Courier
http://bougainville-copper.eu/news-may-2011.html
By GORETHY KENNETH
AUTONOMOUs Bougainville Government leaders are in Arawa this week for a land summit with objectives to develop a land policy on Bougainville and review land issues throughout the region.
ABG President John Momis is leading the summit in Arawa with presentations from Bougainville Lands office, Bougainville Lands Minister Michael Oni and representatives and facilitators from Australia, New Zealand and PNG.
Bougainville Deputy Administrator-operations Patrick Koles said from Arawa that the summit, attended by ABG leaders, aid donors, business houses and other important stakeholders, would look at programs and how ABG can move Bougainville forward in the future.
Mr Koles said that would specifically look at alienated land, customary land, plantations and mission land for the whole of Bougainville.
Mr Oni, the Minister for Lands and Natural Resource gave the keynote address in Arawa while ABG president Momis officially opened the meeting which is being held at the Arawa youth centre at Section 10.
“After the summit, we will come up with recommendations for the ABG and the National Government and we should develop a land policy on Bougainville which will be a benchmark for the people and the government of Bougainville,” Mr Koles said.
The summit will end tomorrow.
This is the first ever summit in which the Mekamui original and the Mekamui unity group is also attending..this is a sure sign of good things will come from the summit.
Even Chris Uma gave his speech on the first day to give his piece to the planning team of the Bougainville Land summit.
And also the level of participation and concentration by all parties have been good to todaY. Pictures left is the Mekamui Unity Government Prez Philip Miriori
Alle Bilder vom Summit:
http://bougainville.typepad.com/newdawn/
Also liebe Landowner, bitte läßt eure Vertretungen endlich!!!! registrieren, wählt dann den Umbrella und los kann´s gehen mit dem BCA Review.