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Who Should Supersede Grand Chief Somare?
Francis Hualupmomi, in China
With Prime Minister (PM) Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare officially being declared medically unfit in maintaining and continuing National Alliance-Coalition(NA) leadership until next election, the question one might ask is who will supersede his leadership? I provide a prediction premised on observation.
It is quite difficult to predict Sir Michael’s successor given the complexity of NA’s coalition make-up, however, from observation we can only construct some most-likely scenarios.
The current NA-Coalition government under Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare over the years has had several leadership competitions among coalition political parties based on regional politics.
From evidence gathered, leadership tussle is between Highlands’ regional camp and Momase Camp, whilst Southern and the Nuigini Islands regional camps seem moderate and bandwagoning.
From this constellation, we can assume a common pattern that Highlands and Momase camps will compete for leadership. We expect three political factions within Highlands regional bloc, the O’Neil’s group, and a split in Enga between current acting PM, Sam Abel’s group, and former deputy PM leader and highlands hot candidate Don Polye’s group. The other highlands political leaders may most likely bandwagon these three groupings depending on their most given preferences.
Given highland’s complex political culture, we expect that a split in Engan groupings would most likely shift alliance to Southern Highlands group. In Southern Highlands, the most likely hottest candidate will be Peter O’Neil. However, that does not dispute a change in Engan politics. Should Engan MPs unite we expect a different scenario. Don Polye would be most likely to assume leadership than Abal.
On the other side of the coin, the Momase camp may also face the similar political competition. We expect a split between Patrick Pruaitch and Arthur Somare. Although both leaders are highly competitive, Arthur may assume leadership for three major reasons. First, Arthur will be most likely preferred over Pruaitch to maintain Grand Chief’s Legacy. Second, Arthur has played an important role in political economic development by bringing ashore many high impact projects such as LNG and public enterprise reforms while serving several ministerial portfolios. Final, Arthur’s leadership may attract NA support in honor and recognition of Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare.
In the middle camp, we have Nuigini Islands and Southern camps, both of which do not possess potential candidates for the leadership. In Nuigini Islands camp, we expect Paul Tiensten to command bandwagoning with Momase camp. In Southern camp, there is a vacuum for possible PM contender after the defection of former deputy Prime Minister, Sir Puka Temu, to Opposition.
Given this political situation, we expect two possible scenarios. First, both camps may remain faithful with Momase camp in fear of loosing leadership to highlands region. Second, there will be a split within the camps between Pro-Somare and pro-Pruaitch factions. Although there is possibility of defections of MPs in coastal regional bloc to highlands regional bloc this may less likely to occur.
From the situational analysis, we can draw some conclusions. First, a possible political instability within NA-Coalition is inevitable. Second, we expect some unexpected leadership shift in highlands regional camp with new faces should there be a stalemate in leadership between Enga and Southern Highlands. Third, we expect split in Momase regional camp, however, it is most likely that Arthur may possibly assume leadership. Fourth, we also expect a split between Nuigini Islands and Southern regional Camps; however, it is most likely that both will support Momase camp.
This leaves us with four most likely possible candidates: Arthur; Abal; Polye; and O’Neil. In projecting a rough prediction, we expect Arthur Somare to reign should there is stalemate between highlands regional MPs. However, should highlands regional MPs unite, we expect Don Polye to assume leadership.
Posted by Asia-Pacfic Strategic Outlook at 9:54 AM
http://...ot.com/2011/05/who-should-supersede-grand-chief-somare.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110513/wl_asia_afp/pngpoliticssomare
Updated 1 hour 8 minutes ago
PRIME Minister Sir Michael Somare is alive and recovering in hospital and people should not spread malicious rumours about his health.....................
http://hotcopper.com.au/...sp?fid=1&tid=1456680&msgid=8298000
http://www.thenational.com.pg/?q=node/19405
Source:
The National, Monday, May 16, 2011
PRIME Minister Sir Michael Somare has been discharged from hospital and is expected back in the country this week.
Family members told The National last night that Sir Michael was discharged from a hospital in Singapore at the weekend and, when he had regained his strength, he would board the plane to Papua New Guinea.
According to family spokesperson Betha Somare, the prime minister “is okay”.
The reassurance came as rumours over the weekend spread of Sir Michael’s demise.
But, Sir Michael’s family members who are with him in Singapore, said the recovery “is slow because of his age”.
His son Arthur Somare also said in an interview with EMTV that Sir Michael was on his way to recovery and could be back home anytime shortly.
The Papua New Guinea Trade Union Congress had slammed doomsayers who were spreading the rumours on the prime minister’s health.
Congress general secretary John Paska said the prophets of doom had no decency and respect for a fellow human being by spreading such nonsense.
“We condemn such people in the strongest term and urge law enforcement authorities to investigate such people and bring them to justice,” he said.
Paska said the prime minister had done a lot for this country with more than 42 years of uninterrupted service to the people and the nation.
He said Sir Michael had undergone an operation and appealed to everyone to pray for his recovery instead of spreading unfounded rumours.
A statement from former health minister Sir Peter Barter on Saturday dismissed rumours on Sir Michael’s well-being.
“His family’s with him and they’ve asked people to stop making up such stories,” he said.
Sir Peter said the Somare family needed everyone’s support to pray for Sir Michael’s full recovery.
PNG Vision 2050 senior officer Joseph Sukwianomb said in a text message that the rumours were of a malicious nature.
He said the prime minister’s condition “is stable, and he will need our prayers”.
“Keep the spirit of prayers going,” Sukwianomb said.
It was understood that chief secretary Margaret Elias had arrived in Singapore.
http://www.apngbc.org.au/...s_forum_2011_program_%20and_rego_form.pdf
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Today: Peter Taylor meets President John Momis in Madang !
Dürfte nicht das einzige Meeting in diesen 2 Tagen sein ;-))))))))))))
Schlußkurs FRA: € 1,11 (+7,77%) bei immerhin mehr als 88 Tausend Stücken.
I think thats really saying Game on in Bougainville
Ausschnitt aus Interview(nicht ganz korrekt)
http://australianetworknews.com/stories/201105/3218731.htm?desktop
Jemima Garrett
Last Updated: 10 hours 38 minutes ago
The Chairman of the Rio Tinto-owned Bougainville Copper is to visit Bougainville for the first time since the Panguna copper mine was shut down by a bloody civil war in 1989.
The invitation is part of a strategy by Bougainville's President John Momis to attract new investment.
Mr Momis told investors attending the Papua New Guinea Australia Business Forum in Madang that the peace process on Bougainville is well established and the island is open for business.
Mr Momis said he is keen to attract smart responsible investors who will create jobs and improve life for rural people in the lead up to a referendum on independence from Papua New Guinea.
The Chairman of Bougainville Copper will be part of a delegation of business leaders to visit the island on Thursday.
Mr Momis said the return of Bougainville copper shows there has been a sea-change in attitudes and economic conditions on the island.
Zweifewlsohne wird der Kurs die letzten Tage in EU gemacht,D zieht vor, AU zieht nach ;-))
Momis:
"...we would like them to talk to the government and the landowners about impact investments that will encourage bougainvilleans to come out of their shell and start collaborating with foreign business..."
Bougainville seeking investors - Momis
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Updated May 17, 2011 07:55:09
Bougainville's President John Momis has told investors there has been a sea change in attitudes and economic conditions on Bougainville and he wants their investment to help build prosperity in the lead up to a referendum on independence.
President Momis was speaking at the Papua New Guinea Australia Business Forum in Madang.
Presenter:Jemima Garrett
Speaker:John Momis, president, Autonomous Bougainville Government
Listen: Windows Media