Ökonomen streiten über Verteilungsfrage

RUSS WINTER of Winters Actionables
G20 SHOWDOWN ON DOLLAR HEDGEMONY
THAT should be the real concern for the U.S., and it ties direct into my earlier article, China Maneuvers to take Away US’ Dominant Reserve Currency Status.

As far as the timing, there are just too many coincidences happening on the gold and other fronts to assume the yellow metal does not play a role here. Is it a coincidence that JP Morgan has literally cornered the gold market

The Shanghai Gold Exchange has had deliveries equal to the world’s production for months straight...The negative GOFO rate means someone wants to get their hands on gold.There is speculation that the elevated high levels of demand we’re seeing in Asia has emptied the London Market.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-08-11/...n-dollar-hedgemony

man kann auch den früheren Artiekel aufrufen bei Winters Actionables ,aber merkwürdigerweise stürst dann die Arivaseite ab  

http://asiaconf.com/2013/08/10/a-japanese-crisis-nears/

,,,,,the bigger problem is that government debt is continuing to rise. Currently at 240% of GDP, the International Monetary Fund estimates that it will get to 250% by year-end. Why is this an issue? Well, when you have government debt at 24x government revenue and interest expenses taking up 25% of government revenue, it becomes a very big issue. Rising interest expenses mean Japan has less to spend on other things, such as social security for its ageing population.

Now, the government has several choices to fix the problem. It can cut the debt, but that would induce an immediate recession or worse. Or it can seek to raise revenue and GDP. This is what the government has chosen to do.

Increasing nominal GDP (real GDP plus inflation) is easier said than done though in a country that’s been going through two decades of deflation. To give you some idea, current nominal GDP is at the same level as it was in 1995.Without going into too finer detail, the government is trying to lift nominal GDP by increasing real GDP and inflation. Real GDP is a function of population growth plus productivity growth. Japan has a declining working age population, which makes the task extremely difficult. If you working age population declines by 1%, you roughly need a 3% increase in productivity (not achieved by many in the developed world) to get to 2% GDP growth.
Here’s the rub though. If the government succeeds with its aim to get inflation up to 2%, it’s likely to result in interest rates increasing to +2%. Remember those interest expenses alluded earlier? Well, if rates do rise to 2%, that would result in the interest expense on government debt being 80% of government revenue. Obviously, this would lead to a serious bond market crisis.

On the other hand, if the government doesn’t succeed in increasing real GDP or inflation, then the debt will continue to compound and interest expenses will continue to rise. At some point, the bond market will inevitably revolt.

Either way, it appears to us that Japan is at the point of no return.....


und wie kann  man das überhaupt noch traden? das fand ich dann auch interessant:
The yen. Ah, the simplest way to short Japan is via shorting the yen. Government intervention is limited. The government needs a low yen for import prices to rise and induce inflation. My bet is that the government will get more than it bargains for. That is, a debt crisis will result in the yen spiralling a lot lower than it wants, and quickly.
 

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/...iechenland-a-915900.html  

in meiner #15 war kein einziges Wort von einem Zusammenhang mit der (potentiellen) Kreditvergabe. Die großartige Widerlegung dieses Narrativs entbehrt also jeder sachlichen Grundlage :-o)

Dafür wird meine Rede, dass Überschussreserven grundsätzlich frei verfügbar sind und nicht prinzipiell dem Markt entzogen, plötzlich einfach vorausgesetzt. Allerdings nur als Aktiva der Bank, nicht als Aktiva der Kunden.

Nachdem die Argumentation bei den T-Bonds offenkundig falsch ist, wird sie mit MBS versucht. Nur hatte ich in #15 bereits mit der Summe von beiden argumentiert (rote Linie), und in Summe klappt sie eben auch nicht.  

unter Hinweis auf El Erians weise Voraussicht 2 Jahre früher und die Tatsache dass Pimco letzte Woche holländische Bonds verkauft hat und die Krise in Griechenland sich verschärft
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/...icles_wsite3_1_06/08/2013_513044

....Despite the plethora of evidence that the crisis has been dangerously mishandled, the eurozone maintains an almost childlike inability to take in criticism or turn it to good use. When the IMF held its hands up over the last few months to admit failings over assessing the economic impact of austerity via the fiscal multiplier and then to admit that the Greek bailout had been wrongly constructed, the Commission's response was to turn on the IMF rather than to look at itself. Yet, when EU Justice Commissioner Viviane Reding suggested that the troika had run its course, as she did in an interview with Kathimerini, this idea was also batted away.

As with any relationship, though, the only thing worse than being repeatedly rejected is being persistently ignored. The eurozone's insistence on turning a deaf ear to measured criticism is counterproductive. Its inability to foment a progressive debate denotes a worrying immaturity.

It was instructive to follow the reaction to recent high-profile challenges to how the Greek bailout and the crisis overall have been handled. When Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta visited Athens last month, he was unusually outspoken in his criticism of the European response to the crisis. “There is no doubt that serious mistakes were made about Greece by Europe in the past few years,” he said......  

besitzt jetzt auch Europas höchstes Wohngebäude.
"Wolkenkratzer ohne Aufzug: Der Treppenwitz von Benidorm"  
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/...schen-wolkenkratzer-a-915972.html  

war ja auch ambitioniert hoch.  

 

Wahrscheinlichkeit T-Online, welche die US-Schnüffelsoftware bei sich installiert hat. Aber große Spüche vom Mutterkonzern mit "E-Mail made in germany", wahrscheinlich um von  sich abzulenken und um Reklame für die Schnüffel-E-Mail De-Mail zu machen.

Alle Konzerne, welche intensiv mit US-Konzernen Handel treiben oder stark in den USA engagiert sind, sind beim geringsten Fehlverhalten erpressbar und werden auch erpresst. Und diese Erpressung wirkt über die USA hinaus. Die Deutsche Telekom sollte sich diesbezüglich mal auskotzen.

 

Bridgewater started its commentary off by noting that:

"We are paid to worry. ...Of course, like all perfect storms far on the horizon, it is difficult to know for sure that a confluence of events will occur.  However, by finding them early and by watching them closely we can usually better assess their probability of materializing than the market does, which allows us to bet on protection when it is relatively cheap."
It is within this context of finding risks early that they note five potential issues facing Europe currently which could lead to a negative market event.

1) Financial institution stress tests could raise worries about specific banks (see chart below)

2) Plans for dealing with problematic banks could lead to Cyprus type situation

3) Portugal's debts problem signals worries for other countries as well

4) France's continuing debt build up could cause serious problems

5) International attention to all these problems could exacerbate the issues.


"This confluence of activities would cause sensible lenders to move from dangerous financial institutions to more secure ones, creating a variety of difficulties. Because of actual frailty in Western countries, another rise in costs and/or propagates could release material responses. Right now, both risk-free attention levels and credit score propagates are low and 'risky asset' costs high, so this threat is not priced in."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-11/...warns-eurocrisis-not-over  

They've already baked the cake.  There's no way to get the eggs out of the cake and back into the shells and stuff them up the hens' asses.
Link s.535  

Japanese GDP grew at a miserly 0.6% QoQ, missing expectations of +0.9% (the biggest miss in a year) and slowing from an already revised lower 0.9% growth in Q1. The already collapsing JPY-carry trade is unwinding in a hurry as JPY surges to a 95 handle on the news; the USD is dropping, Nikkei futures are down 200 points, S&P futures are down a few handles, and gold is holding notable gains.

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/477480  

schreibt bloomberg dagegen geradezu optimistisch,die Daten werden zwar erst am 14.August in Luxembourg  veröffentlicht,aber es steht schon fest,dass das GDP europaweit um 0,2 % gewachsen ist,in Deutschland sogar 0,75%,also mehr als die 0,6% zuvor

The euro-area economy probably edged back to growth last quarter for the first time since 2011, ending the longest recession since the single currency union started 14 years ago.
Gross domestic product in the 17-nation region expanded 0.2 percent in the three months through June after shrinking for the previous six quarters, according to the median of 21 economist forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg will release the data at 11 a.m. on Aug. 14. The German economy probably expanded about 0.75 percent, exceeding the 0.6 percent economists predict, according to a government estimate.

A year of relative calm on financial markets, budget cuts and economic reforms from Spain to Italy, and accelerating growth in the U.S., the world’s biggest economy, has helped the euro area start to recover from a downturn that pushed unemployment to a record 12.1 percent. ......“The external environment is really getting better, led by signs that U.S. demand is picking up,” said Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “The second quarter should mark the end of the recession in the euro area, but the recovery will be excruciatingly slow. We’re not getting the champagne out yet.” ......      .http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-11/...hampagne-kept-on-ice.html  

http://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/web/...-firmen-vor-a-916016.html 

 

jetzt hab ich doch glatt Zaphod den diesen Link + erste Schadenfreude weggeschnappt.

Wie vor einiger Zeit angedacht waren Bitcoins ja eh immer dazu verdammt, entweder irrelevant zu bleiben oder relevant und entsprechend reguliert zu werden...

 

 

 

dafür gibt es nicht einmal ein "witzig"  

 

kann man nicht regulieren.

Wenn ich Bitcoins schwarz handeln will, so finde ich auch immer Schwarzmärkte fernab jedweder Regulierung.


 

werden schon Mittel und Wege finden....  

man hat ja auch Wege gefunden um Raubkopieren unterbinden zu können LOL

 

raubkopierst doch nicht etwa Bitcoins, du schlimmer Nerd?  

Bitcoin ist ein Peer-2-Peer System, d.h. alle Schlüssel, welche für den Zugang zum Bitcoinsystem notwendig sind, liegen auf millionen von Speichern und PCs und darauf hat selbst der Geheimdienst keinen wirklichen Zugriff, sofern der Anwender nicht leichtsinnig ist und sich zu schützen weiß.

Und so ist es letztendlich bis Heute ohne größeren Aufwand möglich Software oder Musik illegal zu laden, wenn man es möchte. Ich selbst brauche sowas aber nicht, nutze ja Open-Source-Software sowie Open-Source-Musik :-)

 

wenn dir die China-Hacker den Strom abdrehen? Meine Euros liegen bei mir in der Schublade und nicht bei anderen auf dem Rechner ;-)

PS: Auch du bist Raubkopierer. Die die das am meisten bestreiten kopieren auch am meisten. Denn Open-Source-Musik klingt wie sie heißt. Und Charts lädt man sich runter oder kopiert man sich wie in deinem Fall auf dem Schulhof.

Ich natürlich nicht....  

Seit 3 Tagen kann ich die Beiden nicht mehr bewerten
Von Ihnen kommen bereits 7 der letzten 20 (oder weniger) positiven Bewertungen für ....

Hallo Mads oder ....hüstel ???  

 

Wie sollen China Hacker den Strom abschalten?
Ist doch Nonsense bzw. Altersheim was du da schreibst, bist halt von gestern ;-)