Der Doomsday Bären-Thread
Der SP-500 ist wieder nahe seinem Intraday-Tief von 15:45 h und könnte gerade Anlauf zu einen bärischen "Key-Reversal" nehmen.
Bemerkenswert ist, dass der Abverkauf wie im Mai 2006 "quer durch die Bank" abläuft - inkl. Commodities: Öl verliert über 4 %, viele Metalle sind 5 bis 10 % (an einem Tag!) gefallen, auch der Euro fällt zum Dollar.
Beim DOW JONES kommt charttechnisch ein bärisches Key-Reversal ("outside day") hinzu: Erst ein neues Alltime-High, jetzt steht er unter dem Tiefstand der letzten Sitzung.
Über Nacht werden auch in Japan/Asien und dann Deutschland/Europa die Indizes fallen. D. h. morgen geht der Ausverkauf in USA weiter. Dann werden demnächst Margin Calls die Lage weiter verschlimmern: Die Margin-Rate lag zum Jahresende 2006 mit 1,6 % der Aktiengesamtkapitalisierung nur knapp unter dem Höchststand von März 2000 (1,7 %). Damals war erst ein Boden gefunden, als sich die Rate auf 0,8 % halbiert hatte - einige 1000 DOW-Punkte tiefer (Details: # 2397 -> link).
Total Dislocation Mode
By Cody Willard
Street.com
1/3/2007 2:47 PM EST
Well, I have no choice but to drag out the D-word, as the markets around the world are in total dislocation mode.
I probably would've called the action in tech "dislocated," even without the huge pullback this afternoon. The nearly 2% pop in the QQQQ (QQQQ - commentary - Cramer's Take) this morning pretty much meets the threshold of my definition of market dislocation.
And now that the QQQQs have fallen nearly 3% from that intraday high?
Throw in the 5% to 10% decline in the metals, energies and plenty of other sectors today, and you have no choice but to shift in your seat about the dislocating markets.
Blame the Fed's minutes or whatever else you want to. The fact is that this tech meltdown is not pretty action for the bulls.
Easy does it.
Tony Crescenzi Blog
FOMC Minutes Lean Hawkish, But Not New
By Tony Crescenzi
Street.com Contributor
1/3/2007 3:00 PM EST
The minutes to the Federal Reserve's Dec. 12 FOMC meeting read more hawkish than dovish, with the Fed emphasizing upside risks to inflation over the downside risks to economic growth [schreib ich hier ja schon seit langem - A.L.]. Of particular importance were the Fed's remarks on the housing market, which were much more benign than was implied by the Dec. 12 statement wherein the Fed added the word "substantial" to describe the cooling of the housing market. On the other side of the coin, one FOMC member wanted the Fed to shift from its tightening bias to a neutral directive, although the importance of this revelation is reduced by changes to the FOMC that will take place at the Jan. 31 FOMC meeting, when the composition of the Fed changes as a result of the Fed's annual rotation of Reserve Bank presidents. Also dovish was the Fed's downgrading of its assessment of the economic outlook.
The FOMC minutes might be best summarized by these remarks contained in the minutes, which described both the increased growth concern and the Fed's lingering concern about inflation risks:
"Several members judged that the subdued tone of some incoming indicators meant that the downside risks to economic growth in the near term had increased a little and become a bit more broadly based than previously thought. Nonetheless, all members agreed that the risk that inflation would fail to moderate as desired remained the predominant concern."
The minutes indicate that the Fed's take on housing is the same as what has been implied by the Fed's public remarks, and the minutes help clear up some of the confusion created when the Fed added new emphasis on the housing market's weakness with the use of the word "substantial" in describing the housing market's slowdown. There were a few passages that indicate a more moderate view of the housing market's weakness than implied by the original statement:
"The ongoing adjustment of the housing market was likely to damp economic growth in the near term, but this effect was expected to dissipate.
"In their discussion of the major sectors of the economy, participants noted that developments in the housing market continued to weigh heavily on economic activity. Housing starts and permits for new construction had dropped sharply in October, and contacts in the building sector reported that construction firms were continuing to cancel options on land purchases. However, there were some indications that home sales might be starting to stabilize. ...
"Thus far, the adjustment of activity and prices in the housing market did not appear to have spilled over significantly to consumer spending. ..."
As the minutes show, "One member did not favor language that referenced only the possibility of additional policy firming and believed that, although the risks to inflation remained the predominant concern, the statement should emphasize that policy could be adjusted in either direction depending on the evolution of the outlook for inflation and economic growth." In other words, the member wanted a neutral directive, not a bias toward further rate hikes.
Two factors reduce the importance of this. First, three of the departing members are considered doves and three of the incoming members are considered hawks, making any leaning away from a tightening bias less likely to hold up. Second, the member favoring a neutral directive was likely a dovish bank president, since they tend to dissent more so than Fed governors. If this is the case, it is possible that the member will no longer be part of the FOMC in 2007.
In the end, the minutes do not change the picture of a Fed taking no chances on inflation and not yet convinced that it is safe to let its guard down and consider an interest rate cut. The Fed, like the markets, is very uncertain about which way the economic winds will blow.
Was eine inverse Zinsstruktur bedeutet
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In der Regel werfen lang laufende Zinspapiere eine höhere Rendite ab als Kurzläufer - der Zinssatz steigt also mit der Bindungsdauer. Das ist leicht nachvollziehbar, schließlich gehen Anleger, die sich länger binden, höhere Risiken ein. Und das höhere Risiko, das sich beispielsweise in Form einer steigenden Inflation zeigen kann oder in der Ungewißheit über die Bonität des Schuldners zum Rückzahlungszeitpunkt, wird eben mit einer höheren Verzinsung entlohnt.
Ablesen läßt sich das aktuelle Verhältnis der kurzfristigen zu den langfristigen Zinsen in der sogenannten Zinsstrukturkurve. Diese verdeutlicht das Verhältnis der kurzfristigen zu den langfristigen Zinssätzen. Die Renditen am kurzen Ende geben dabei Auskunft, ob die Geldpolitik eher locker (tiefe Renditen) oder eher restriktiv (hohe Renditen) ist.
Das lange Ende spiegelt die Erwartung der Marktteilnehmer wider, ob künftig die Inflation verhalten sein wird (niedrige Renditen) oder ein Teuerungsschub droht (hohe Renditen). Eine steigende Zinsstrukturkurve wird dabei als normal angesehen (und häufig auch so bezeichnet). In diesem Fall sind die kurzfristigen Zinsen niedriger als die Zinsen für längerfristig gebundenes Kapital.
Von einer flachen Zinsstrukturkurve wird dann gesprochen, wenn die Zinssätze für alle Zinsbindungsdauern in etwa gleich hoch sind. Und von einer inversen Zinsstrukturkurve, die noch seltener als eine flache Zinsstrukturkurve auftritt, ist dann die Rede, wenn die kurzfristigen Zinssätze höher sind als die langfristigen. Das heißt, die Zinsstrukturkurve fällt (siehe Grafik).
Inverse Zinsstruktur gilt als Vorbote von Konjunkturproblemen
Eine inverse Zinsstruktur entsteht entweder, wenn die Notenbank die kurzfristigen Zinsen durch Zinserhöhungen in die Höhe treibt oder wenn Anleger, die eine Konjunkturschwäche befürchten, ihr Kapital vermehrt in langfristige Zinspapiere stecken und damit deren Renditen drücken. Zinserhöhungen beschließt eine Notenbank typischerweise dann, wenn sie, etwa wegen steigender Ölpreise, Inflationsgefahren wittert und deshalb das Wirtschaftswachstum bremsen will.
Eine restriktivere Zinspolitik kann neben bremsenden Effekten auf die Inflation auch bewirken, daß die Anleger künfitg eine Abschwächung des Wachstums befürchten. In einem solchen Fall spricht dann nichts mehr gegen den Kauf langlaufender Anleihen, wodurch deren Kurse steigen und ihre Rendite sinkt.
Die Zinsstrukturkurve findet an der Börse deshalb viel Beachtung, weil sich aus ihren Verlauf Rückschlusse auf den Zustand der Konjunktur ziehen lassen und das wiederum sehr wichtig für die Einschätzung der weiteren Kursaussichten und die Ableitung einer entsprechenden Anlagestrategie ist. Mit einer normalen Zinsstrukturkurve verbinden Marktteilnehmer in der Regel positive Konjunkturerwartungen und langfristig steigende Zinsen.
Dagegen schrillen bei Volkswirten beim Auftreten einer inversen Zinsstrukturkurve die Alarmglocken, weil sie häufig der Vorbote für bevorstehende volkswirtschaftliche Probleme gilt. So hat eine neuere Untersuchung der Federal Reserve in New York ergeben, daß eine inverse Zinsstrukturkurve der präziseste Einzelindikator für eine drohende Rezession ist.
Studien belegen Prognosequalität der Zinsstrukturkurve
Anderen Studien zufolge kommt es ein Jahr nach einer Inversion der Zinsstruktur oder etwas später zu einer Rezession. Außerdem schneidet der S&P-500 in den zwölf Monaten nach einer Inversion mit einem Plus von 1,06 Prozent im historischen Vergleich relativ schlecht ab. Ihre Prognosequalität bewies die inverse Zinsstrukturkurve zuletzt im Jahr 2000, als sie frühzeitig auf die nachfolgende Rezession in Amerika hinwies. Eine inverse Zinsstruktur kann auf mittelfristig wieder fallende kurzfristige Leitzinsen hindeuten, ebenfalls ein Signal dafür, daß die Marktteilnehmer negative Konjunkturerwartungen hegen.
Mit dazu bei trägt auch die Tatsache, daß die Bereitschaft des Bankensektors zur Kreditvergabe bei einer steilen Zinsstrukturkurve höher ist. Den bei einer inversen Zinsstrukturkurve müssen Banken für die Refinanzierung mehr zahlen als sie über die die Kreditvergabe verdienen. Gleichzeitig nimmt aber die Kreditnachfrage mit einer flachen Zinsstrukturkurve zu, weil es sich dann lohnt, einen Kredit zur Anlage auf einem Festgeldkonto aufzunehmen, da der Einlage- über dem Entleihungszins liegt. Dieser Gegensatz löst sich erst dann auf, wenn die Banken höhere Kreditzinsen durchsetzen können oder die Kreditvergabe eingeschränkt wird.
Kein absolut verläßlicher Indikator
Nicht selten erwies sich eine inverse Zinsstrukturkurve in der Vergangenheit als verläßlicher Indikator für eine bevorstehende Rezession. Daher verwundert nicht, daß die Börsianer hellhörig werden, wenn die Zinsstrukturkurve wie am Dienstag in Amerika kurzzeitig geschehen (zehnjährige Anleihen rentierten da im Handelsverlauf mit 4,372 Prozent knapp unter dem Renditeniveau zweijähriger Anleihen von 4,373 Prozent), erstmals seit fünf Jahren wieder invers wird.
Aber es gibt auch außerordentliche wirtschaftliche Umstände, die eine inverse Zinskurve bedingen können. Ob das auch diesmal der Fall ist, bleibt abzuwarten. So könnte die inverse Zinsstruktur durch das nach wie vor bestehende Überangebot an anlagebereitem Geld und einem damit verbundenen Anlagenotstand zu erklären sein. Unabhängig davon sollten Anleger das damit verbundene Signal Ernst nehmen und nach weiteren Hinweisen für eine eventuell bevorstehende Konjunkturschwäche Ausschau halten.
Die in dem Beitrag geäußerte Einschätzung gibt die Meinung des Autors und nicht die der F.A.Z.-Redaktion wieder.
Text: @JüB
Bildmaterial: Eurexchange
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hast Du 'ne Idee warum OnceHush nicht mehr postet, seine Statements habe ich immer als Bereicherung empfunden.
Gruß + Stöffen
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By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
1/3/2007 4:33 PM EST
If the action today is any indication of what 2007 has in store for us there is going to be a lot of very frayed nerves and very stressed out traders. The action this morning was looking picture perfect for the bulls, with a healthy point gain on good breadth and weak oil.
Talk about what a great year lies ahead filled the air, and that was the tipoff that trouble was coming soon. The bulls were just a little too smug about their success and a bit too optimistic, and the market beast never likes that.
We had a very nasty turn, and then the minutes of the last FOMC meeting did nothing to shore things up.
An intraday turn like we saw today is definitely a technical negative, but there are a lot of unusual crosscurrents at the start of a new year, and I am less inclined to believe that we are going to immediately shift into a downtrend at this point.
Keep in mind that cash inflows are usually quite strong at the start of the day, and most funds and pension plans put that to work immediately. That dynamic may help hold the market up a bit, but as I wrote the morning, I believe we have more of a dip coming. The shakeout today is just an example of what can happen when the bulls get too fat and sassy.
Weisst Du, manchmal scheint es mir so, dass in der Ariva-Welt jene die Wahrheit bestimmen wollen, die am stärksten besessen sind. Dahinter steckt der Narzissmus all dieser kleinen Jungs, die der Welt ihren Stempel aufdrücken wollen, ihre Initialen an die Mauer sprayen, aber gleichzeitig zu feige sind, ihr Gesicht zu zeigen.
Es ist lächerlich zu glauben, so könnten substantielle Dialoge entstehen. Wir verraten ja hier nicht einmal unseren richtigen Namen. Wir verstecken uns hinter falschen, erfundenen Identitäten. Wer unsichtbar ist, ist unangreifbar. Die Wahrheit hingegen bekommst Du nur mit bzw. über Verantwortlichkeit.
Und nicht zu vergessen: Ein Monopol auf die Wahrheit hat auch in diesem Board niemand !
Gruß + Stöffen
Das Web ist eine Projektionsfläche des eigenen Egos - mit allen Tugenden und Untugenden der jeweiligen Person.
In einem anderen Internet-Forum las ich mal den schönen Satz: "Wer hier was sucht, hat im wirklichen Leben was verloren..." Da ist schon was dran.
für Firmen bezeichnet.
Ich war auf etlichen Aktien-Fondsauschußsitzungen und da wurde über nichts anderes diskutiert.
dd
Der heutige Abverkauf nach den "Fed Minutes" ging (entgegen meiner ursprünglichen Annahme) doch zum Großteil auf die hawkischen Kommentare darin (die für Zinserhöhungen der Fed sprechen) zurück. Auch der letzte größere Aktien-Ausverkauf im Mai 2006 wurde bezeichnenderweise durch eine Serie zinsbullischer Kommentare der Fed ausgelöst. "Neu aufkommende Zinsängste" war damals das Schlagwort.
Fazit: Wer sich um Zinsen keine Gedanken macht, wird dafür die Zeche zahlen - vor allem, wenn die Inflation in USA wie erwartet anzieht.
04.01.07 14:32
NEW YORK (AFX) - The holiday shopping season turned out to be worse than expected for many of the nation's retailers, who Thursday reported tepid sales gains for December. As retailers reported their monthly results, disappointments crossed all categories, from Limited Brands Inc. to jewelry chain Zale Corp. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. posted better-than-expected results for December, following a dismal November. Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in Swampscott, Mass., said retailers were forced to mark down heavily to bring in sales. "Clearly, this was a promotional Christmas," he said. "Consumers clearly waited until the last minute." After a robust start to the holiday season, many stores struggled with disappointing business in December, and a shopping surge in the final days before and after Christmas wasn't strong enough to make up for lost sales. Mild weather across much of the country meant shoppers were in no hurry to buy cold weather wear such as coats and gloves, depressing sales at many apparel stores. Declining gasoline prices and a steady job market should have helped merchants this holiday season, but Perkins believes the recent drop in home equity loans -- a big source of buying over the past few years -- depressed spending among middle-income shoppers. Sales results were also hurt by two big shifts in the way consumers are shopping: the increasing popularity of gift cards and robust online buying, which is not included in same-store results. Gift card sales are only posted when they are redeemed rather than bought, helping to extend the holiday season into January. Wal-Mart, which warned early last month that its sales gain from stores open at least a year would be no better than 1 percent, posted a 1.6 percent for December. Retail industry analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected 1 percent gain. Sales from stores open at least a year, known as same-store sales are sales, are considered the industry standard for measuring a retailer's health. The results followed Wal-Mart's 0.1 percent decline in same-store sales in November, its first monthly same-store sales drop in a decade. Costco Wholesale Corp. posted a 9 percent gain in same-store sales, beating Wall Street's 5.7 percent estimate. Pier 1 Imports Inc. suffered a 10.7 percent drop in same-store sales, worse than the 9.4 percent analysts anticipated. Zale, which did not break out December same-store sales figures, reported a same-store sales increase of 2.3 percent for the combined months of November and December. But it said that while the Zales brand gained sales momentum, profit margins were below expectations due to more aggressive price cutting. Limited Brands had a 4 percent gain, well below the 9.3 percent Wall Street expected. Among teen retailers, Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. had a 3.2 percent dip in December, worse than the 2.9 percent forecast. Bebe Stores Inc. had a 4.0 percent gain in same-store sales for December, less than the 6.3 percent estimate. Copyright 2006 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed
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Bon-Ton Stores same-store sales fall 5.8 percent in December
Gap same store sales drop 8 percent and lowers 2006 earning estimates
Cato December same-store sales slide 6% and lowers fourth quarter earnings per share
Deb Shops December same-store sales down 7,5%
Jo-Ann Stores December sales fall 6.9% expected -4%
Haverty Furniture same-store sales fall 9,2%
Sharper Image Dec. same-stores slump 20% (erwartet waren -19,2%)
BJ's Wholesale December sales rise 0,6% (erwartet wurden +1,3%)
Children's Place sales miss estimates (+5% erwartet wurden +8,2%)
Pacific Sunwear same-store sales down 3,2% (erwartet wurden -2,9%)
Bakers Footwear same-store sales slide 16,1% (Vorjahresperiode +27%)
Buckle December sales rise 3.6 percent (erwartet wurden +5%)
Wet Seal December same-store sales up 1,3% (UN-Prognose war 1-3%)
Dillard's sales fall in December 5% expected -0,7%
Target Dec. same-store sales up 4,1% expected 4,5%
Kohl's December same-store sales rise 3% expected 3,2%
wie erwartet:
Aeropostale Dec. sales meet estimates
Factory Card same-store sales rise 0,3%
besser als erwartet:
CVS posts better-than-expected sales +8,5% expected +7,8%
Sales rise at Dress Barn 5%, expected 3%
Wal-Mart December same-store sales up +1,3% (erwartet wurden 1%)
Abercrombie Dec. same-store sales dip 1% (besser als erwarete -1,8%)
Fred's Dec. same-store sales rise 2% (erwartet +1,4%)
J.C. Penney sales rise in December 2,6% (erwartet wurden 2,4%)
Nordstrom December same-store sales up 9% (erwartet wurden +4,3%)
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NY fängt heute wild an. Der SP-500 steigt in den ersten Minuten um 3 Punkte, geht dann aber sofort 5 Punkte in die Knie. Ich schätze, der Abverkauf von gestern geht heute weiter. Das Abwärtsvolumen ist auch deutlich größer als das Aufwärtsvolumen.
The Fed Just a Selloff Scapegoat
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
1/4/2007 8:59 AM EST
The release of the Fed minutes received most of the blame for the sharp intraday reversal in the major indices yesterday afternoon. We were cruising along nicely as excitement about the new year brought in some early buying -- breadth was good, technology stocks were showing relative strength, and a sharp drop in crude oil probably was helping scare away any fears of inflation.
Around 1:15 p.m. EST the market started to roll over and when the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were released at 2 p.m. we spiked down sharply but managed to bounce back a fair amount into the closing bell. So the headlines suggested the Fed minutes were not overly market friendly and had caused the selloff.
Maybe in part that is true but market news is much more complicated than that. The minutes of the FOMC meeting weren't really all that significant. The key was that the market was ready to sell off; it simply needed a convenient excuse and the FOMC minutes provided that excuse.
What really caused the market to reverse wasn't the minutes but the emotions. Market players were becoming too confident about the market and had used up their buying power too quickly to kick off the new year. There simply wasn't enough juice to keep things running and many were in a vulnerable position when they pressed their bets and then had to flee for safety when things failed to follow through.
Emotions in the first few days of a new year tend to be quite elevated. Fund managers want a good start, many folks are finally locking in some gains now that they have successfully deferred taxes, and many big macro investing visions are implemented. Investors are starting with a clean slate and are hypersensitive to doing anything that is going to put them behind in a major way to start the year.
If you want to assign blame for what happened don't look at the Fed, look at investors' emotions. They are the ones who determine the true meaning of news and given the current technical conditions of the indices and the high level of complacency that has been in place for a while, the path of least resistance for any news was down.
I contend that the emotional state of the market right now is such that the likelihood is that most news will be spun in a negative fashion. Market players have had a big run and want to stay optimistic and hold on to stocks, but they have big gains and if they find a reason to sell they will be more inclined to do something now than they were a few weeks ago.
We have a negative start this morning as yesterday's reversal hangs in the air. Retail same-store sales are being reported and don't appear to be particularly positive. Oil and commodities are looking weak again and overseas markets were down fairly sharply in most cases.
ist mit SL bei 1423 abgesichert(Ziel bleibt1400-1390).
S&P sollte möglichst nicht mehr über die 1420 schaun denn
sonst gehts wieder Richtung 1435-40.
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Deutschland sucht den Mega Chart
Ein neues TV-Format. Kommt sicher in 6-7 Jahren (Wenn Aktien wieder
abgehen wie die Sau). Dort stellen sich die Bosse vor eine Schafsjury
und wer am besten lügen kann, ohne rot zu werden, kommt in den Recall.
Was nicht ist kann ja noch werden.
Zwischen ZehnDausend und einem Zahner ist alles drinne.
Das nennt man dann im Fachjargon der mit reichlich Beton abgefüllten Ariva-Hirne Phantasie ;-)
Ps. Bin ich jetzt auch ein Guru ?
Preise für Metalle und Rohstoffe fallen, weil die Industrie weniger kauft. Die Commodity-Preise sind daher eine Art "Echtzeit-Frühindikator". Der Aktienmarkt bekommt dies erst mit, wenn es - weit später - in ökonomischen Statistiken und Rahmendaten auftaucht (= nachlaufende Indikatoren).
Wer klug ist, verkauft, wenn die Echtzeit-Warnungen kommen - und nicht erst, wenn "Alle" die Zeichen der Zeit in "offiziellen Zahlen" sehen. (Wer genau hinsieht, erkennt dort freilich jetzt schon Warnzeichen.)
Copper, commodities sell-off may signal slowdown
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:58 PM ET Jan 4, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A sell-off in commodities -- from copper to crude oil -- over the past few sessions is telling some veteran market watchers that a slowdown in economic growth, likely one of considerable magnitude, is already underway.
In the last two days alone, commodity prices seem to have fallen off a cliff.
Copper futures, which tumbled 7.7% on Wednesday, fell another 1.8% on Thursday -- and have dropped 27% from their December highs Crude-oil prices fell nearly 5%, following a 4% drop in the previous session. The front-month futures contract was trading at its lowest level since June 2005.
In fact, everything from grains to base metals to livestock to cotton has been selling off over the past few sessions, notes Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter investment newsletter. "In all, it was an unseemly start to the year [for commodities]," he wrote Thursday.
The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index (26099104) was last down 3.2% at a 3-month low.
But why would this signal an economic slowdown? Most commodities are used in the production of industrial goods. When producers start demanding fewer raw materials, it becomes noticeable in commodities prices much earlier than in official economic statistics, explained Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Research & Analytics [Ritholtz schrieb den hochinteressanten Artikel, den ich in # 2 dieses Threads gepostet habe - A.L.]
Copper, in particular, is often used as a reliable economic indicator because of its widespread use in production. "Copper is the metal with a Ph. D. in economics," Ritholtz said. "It's used in the wiring of homes and offices, in plumbing in construction, and it's also a key component in electronic goods. "When it softens, it means we're making fewer homes, offices and computers."
A fast-falling housing market and cutbacks in automobile production took a toll on the economy in 2006. Growth as measured by gross domestic product slowed from 5.6% in the first quarter, when it was boosted by a post-Hurricane Katrina recovery, to 2.6% in the second quarter and to a yet to be finalized but estimated 2% in the third quarter.
The manufacturing sector contracted in November and barely grew in December, while retail sales over the holidays have investors wondering whether consumers are starting to feel pinched.
Similarly, the big drop in oil prices in recent months is raising concerns. Besides being used in the production of plastics found in many finished goods, oil is also used for the transport of goods across the globe, Ritholtz pointed out.
Many market strategists look to transportation indexes, such as the American Trucking Association's Truck Tonnage Index, as additional indicators of U.S. economic health. That index plunged 3.6% in November after a 1.9% drop in October, and it's at its lowest level since 2003, the ATA reported.
"November 2006 marked the single worst month for for-hire truck tonnage since the last recession," said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. "Both the month-to-month and year-over-year decreases indicate that the economic slowdown is in full gear. Yet, few investors have picked up on most of these signals. In fact, the Dow Jones Transportation Average ($TRAN), which is also often used as one of the economic indicators for the stock market, began to rebound in late December.
That's mostly due to gains in airline stocks, such as Continental Airlines and AMR Corp., which have risen thanks to falling crude prices, helping offset weakness elsewhere in the Dow transports, according to Ritholtz.
Shares of parcel companies such as FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Services Inc., along with freight transporters such as C. H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. and shippers such as Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. haven't fared as well.
While the market is debating whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year to stave off an economic slowdown, few are paying attention to the signals being sent by commodities. "One would have to admit that the recent slide in copper's price seems worrisome, yet there has been little discussion in the media about why this might be happening or its implications," said Richard Bernstein, chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, in a recent note.
Merrill metals analyst Vicky Binns has predicted that copper could fall an additional 30% in 2007, while sector strategist Brian Belski lowered his rating on the materials sector to an underweight on Wednesday.
Merrill Lynch chief economist Dave Rosenberg, meanwhile, has noted that, should the economy rebound in the first quarter, that would prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates as early as the market had been hoping. "Dave is quick to point out that such a delay by the Fed will inhibit the economy's growth path through the remainder of the year," Bernstein said. Perhaps that is what Dr. Copper is already seeing. "Regardless, one should be concerned that observers now seem to be ignoring Dr. Copper as though he (she?) has only a bachelor's degree," the Merrill strategist wrote.
Nick Godt is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.
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