Trading Bougainville Copper (ADRs) 867948
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BOC&E=ASX&N=333954
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By Noel Pascoe
PRIME Minister Sir Michael Somare has suffered a rebuff over the governor-general issue, with almost all his MPs refusing to sign for his favoured candidate.
He and East New Britain Governor Leo Dion were the only MPs to sign a nomination form for Sir Paulias Matane to be elected again as the vice-regal representative. A nomination requires 15 MPs written support to be accepted as a candidate.
Mr Dion revealed the stark situation yesterday in praising Sir Paulias for lifting the image of the office in his tenure and in calling for an immediate dissolution of Parliament.
Mr Dion voiced his disappointment at the way in which Sir Paulias was treated. He revealed yesterday that he and Sir Michael were the only signatories to the form nominating Sir Paulias, the previous substantive governor-general, to be governor-general again.
Almost all other NA and coalition members had signed up for other candidates, he said.
He said he was proud of Sir Paulias’s achievements in the role and welcomed him home.
He said the Tolai leader had improved the image of the office of the governor-general greatly and had set a benchmark for others to follow.
However, the people of Papua New Guinea did not deserve the current kind of leadership and he said Parliament should be dissolved after the election for a governor-general so that the people could vote for a new government to lead the country.
“What is happening now is bad leadership and I strongly believe that it will be wise and proper for Parliament to be dissolved and a fresh election be called for, to put to rest all the issues of a vote of no-confidence and the situation surrounding the stepping down of the Prime Minister and the politicizing of the office of the governor-general,’’ he said yesterday.
“The general election year 2012 is only some 16 or so months away. What will a new government bring within this period?”
The call for a dissolution and fresh election now would result in a new, five-year term in office for the winners. Political observers suggest a snap election at this time could result in a return to power for the current partners in government, as they had the resources of government to campaign more strongly than a much smaller Opposition with fewer resources to organise in a short time.
Mr Dion said it was more mature for leaders to “think outside the box’’ instead of becoming emotional and being personal on issues that bordered on national and international interests.
He said the ramifications of any change of government now would be huge but less damaging and fairer if Parliament was dissolved and an early election called.
“Everyone including our people would then be given that chance to help form government that will lead the country,’’ Mr Dion said.
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BRENDA BOUW, DAVID EBNER
Nothing remains of the peak of Copper Mountain in southern British Columbia, destroyed by decades of mining that have left behind three gaping pits about 1,000 metres above sea level.
But it’s been quiet up here since the mid-1990s, when the last operation was shuttered because of low commodity prices.
That’s about to change, thanks to a roaring comeback in the price of the main metal produced here. Copper, used in everything from construction and cars to telecommunications and power, is on a record run.
This week, amid blustery winds and a fresh blanket of snow, the trucks and shovels rumble again at this site, home to the Copper Mountain project, located 270 kilometres east of the Port Metro Vancouver, where copper concentrate will be shipped to Japan for smelting.
Sparks from welders’ torches crackle and fly inside the massive hangar-like processing mill that stands 10 storeys tall. Outside, several 240-tonne, seven-metre-tall trucks – price tag $3.5-million each – bump along at 15 kilometres an hour, hauling away waste rock from the once-prolific pit 3, to once again get after the suddenly valuable copper-speckled ore.
“The best copper is the copper that has already been found,” says Bill Dodds, the mine general manager. “And it’s where you probably find more of it.”
The Copper Mountain mine is one of a growing number of old, shuttered mines around the world that are being revisited, refurbished and reopened by companies hoping to cash in on the current surge in prices for copper, gold, nickel and a host of other metals.
The revival of old mines is part of the industry’s push to meet soaring demand from China and other fast-growing nations that use the various metals in their surging industrial exports and to build out their own infrastructure.
Mining companies are spending billions to boost production, in a race to meet that demand as quickly as possible before the next downturn hits the notoriously cyclical industry.
Today, with copper trading comfortably above $4 a pound, it appears that the comeback of the Copper Mountain mine couldn’t have been better timed.
“We are extremely excited to be starting production this year,” says Copper Mountain Mining Corp. chief executive officer Jim O’Rourke, who was also head of the former company that made the decision to shut the mine in the mid-1990s.
Copper Mountain has a rocky history. Ore was discovered by a father-and-son prospecting team in the 1880s. The first claim staked at Copper Mountain was by a fur buyer, R.A. Brown, in 1895, but it wasn’t until 1920 that the first ore was shipped out from a mine. Low copper prices forced the nascent operation to shut down just two months later - the first of four times in the next eight decades that whipsaw commodity prices closed the doors.
When the mine officially reopens this summer, after some $438-million of reconstruction spending, it will be the first commercial production to come out of the site in 15 years. When the mine last closed in 1996, copper was struggling to stay above $1 (U.S.) a pound, making it difficult to not only turn a profit but replace the 20-year-old trucks and aging infrastructure.
Around the world, old mines like Copper Mountain are new again. Mine reopenings are running at a brisk clip - an average of about two per month over the past 21 months worldwide, according to Halifax-based Metals Economics Group. That includes four reopenings in March last year and three in each July and April.
The revitalization is bringing a variety of mines back to life. Once-dormant gold mines have been restarted in several resource-rich locations, including Northern Ontario, as the soaring metal trades near record highs. Canadian mining giant Teck Resources Ltd. is considering reopening an old metallurgical coal mine in B.C. amid relentless demand for the raw material used in steel making. In Papua New Guinea, talks are under way to reopen the massive Bougainville copper mine, closed for 20 years, at a cost of $3-billion. Old uranium mines are reopening in parts of the western United States after years of sitting idle, as the price of the metal used as fuel for nuclear reactors climbs alongside rising global demand for energy.
While old mines reopen, mining companies are also furiously consolidating, in order to combine resources and capital to speed up development of new mines. In the past week alone, four substantial mining deals involving Canadian firms were announced, all with the goal of rapid growth.
Inmet Mining Corp., for example, characterized its merger with Lundin Mining Corp. as a must to “survive and thrive” in the copper business, while Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.’s $4.7-billion bid for Consolidated Thompson Iron Mines Ltd. opens the door for Cliffs to the crucial Chinese market. HudBay Minerals Inc. is hoping to revitalize its growth plans by reaching into copper-rich Peru with a $520-million deal for Norsemont Mining Inc.
But the rush to get bigger, faster brings risks. All the new waves of supply from reopened mines and new projects are likely to weigh on the market in coming years, some industry experts warn. Prices for copper, aluminum, nickel, coal and iron ore may still rise for a year or two, but amid the fast growth in supply, many predict demand to level off, followed by prices. The possibility of a slowdown in China, as the country takes steps to rein in inflation and credit growth, adds to the risk.
In the case of copper, “as more supply comes on, the price will slowly come down,” says Peter Campbell, a mining analyst with Jennings Capital. After a near-term rise, he sees copper prices tumbling back down to about $2.50 a pound by 2015.
As prices decline, higher-cost producers will be hurt “because the margins are just too skinny,” Mr. Campbell says.
“They don’t call it a commodity cycle for nothing,” he says. “Sometimes it ends in tears.”
Mine values
Old mines, though, can become company makers.
Vancouver-based Quadra FNX Mining Ltd. got its start from a once-shuttered mine discarded by mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd.
Australian-based BHP closed the Robinson copper mine in Nevada in 1999, when the 70-cent copper price meant the open-pit operation was no longer making enough money to satisfy its growth plans.
The state’s Robinson Mining District had been producing copper since the early 1900s, and Quadra, confident copper would eventually rebound, bought the mine in April, 2004. Production began a few months later and has been operating since, with an expected mine life until 2016.
Today, Quadra FNX has mines and development projects in North America, Chile and Greenland.
“Robinson was a great starting project for a new company at the time,” says Quadra FNX CEO Paul Blythe. But timing is everything, and Mr. Blythe says valuations of mine projects today have soared. Mines for sale today “tend to be sold by auction and they tend to command a price that would make a person cautious, I think, as to whether you wanted to get into a bid situation or not.”
Consider Baffinland Iron Mines Corp.’s Mary River iron ore project in Canada's high Arctic. Construction hasn’t even started and it already has sparked a bidding war between steel giant ArcelorMittal and a U.S. private equity firm. On Friday, the two companies came together to make a joint offer at $1.50 a share, which is nearly double the original bid price made last fall.
Seizing the advantage
Copper Mountain Mining’s Mr. O’Rourke has lived through a number of commodity cycles in his more than 30 years of operating and developing mines across North and South America.
It’s knowing just how quickly prices can fluctuate that has Mr. O’Rourke and his team working around the clock to ensure that the Copper Mountain mine is completed on time and on budget. With copper currently trading around $4.30 a pound and forecasts it could surpass $5 next year as demand outstrips supply, the months ahead could the company’s best chance to reap rich profits.
“If we take advantage of the time, take advantage of the revenue, do lots of exploration, the mine could be there for 15 to 20 years,” says Mr. O’Rourke, who came out of “retirement” to make the project a reality.
Copper Mountain Mining is far ahead from where it started after buying the mine in 2006. Its production decision was based on a price of $1.80 a pound.
“The extra $2.50-per-pound margin on our planned 100-million-pound-per-year production provides huge upside for the mine,” Mr. O’Rourke says.
What’s more, the company is estimating production costs at the mine of around $1.30 a pound. At today’s prices, that’s a gain of $3 a pound, or about $300-million a year in cash flow. While the company still has to pay off debt and other expenses, the higher the margin the more money it can set aside for future growth, including possibly a future acquisition.
“It’s a great base for a junior company – to form the base for us to grow from,” Mr. O’Rourke says.
Time pressure
If the commodity picture plays out as some predict over the next few years, Copper Mountain Mining has about 18 months to squeeze higher profits out from the revival of its B.C. mine. That’s if there are no problems and production begins on time.
At the Copper Mountain site, about 350 construction workers are busy on the sprawling 18,000-acre property (7,300 hectares) amid the undulating mountain top above steep slopes.
The concrete was first poured last February. Crews know the pressure is on to make sure the June 1 opening date is not missed. “Getting it going June 1 is the minimum,” says mine general manager Mr. Dodds.
One great advantage of resurrecting a dead mine is that some important infrastructure is already in place. Copper Mountain was already connected to the BC Hydro grid and, much more importantly, already had a tailing lake. At three kilometres long, this key but often controversial storage pit for mine processing waste – some 34,000 tonnes of ground ore dust each day – was the huge stumbling block that eventually sunk Taseko Mines Ltd.’s proposed Prosperity copper-gold mine in B.C. last fall.
While much of the work is done at the Copper Mountain mine, there are “lots of bits and pieces to go.” Pieces come from everywhere. The shovels from Germany, the trucks from Illinois, loaders from Japan, the 34-tonne grinders in the mill made in Paraguay.
Seven of the big 240-tonne Komatsu 830E trucks are on site, with the other half dozen to arrive by February. They show up in pieces and are assembled on site. Stacked piles of $40,000 tires, haul boxes in two, and truck chassis/frame/engine sit in the snow outside a maintenance shop. The trucks are part of 23 pieces of heavy equipment, worth a total of $85-million.
On the precipice of pit 3, across the 200-metre deep chasm, drillers are at work to poke holes to fill with explosives to blow away waste rock, the last preparations for mining. It is on this flat ground, above the pit, that once existed the town of Copper Mountain, back when Granby Consolidated Mining operated an underground mine below. There’s no hint left of the buildings that housed the men who toiled below ground, the first to haul copper ore out of here.
The current plan calls for the mine to be in business until 2028. There’s already hope for longer production, particularly after more positive exploration results were released on Thursday. Pits 1, 2 and 3 are individual gashes in the land; when Copper Mountain Mining Corp. is done, it will be one massive superpit.
Looking at the hardrock below, Mr. Dodds says: “In 17 years there’ll be no trace of it.”
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und wieder ein ganz interessanter Bericht, diesmal aus den Anfangstagen der Mine:
http://thestar.com.my/lifestyle/story.asp?file=/...amp;sec=lifetravel
Ähnliche topographische Bedingungen wie in der Pangunamine finden sich auch in der BCL Lease Atamo.Geht man von den durch das geologische Institut Hannover durchgeführten Untersuchungen aus, so besteht nach Auskunft der Geologen eine hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit darin dass es sich bei dem unter der Erdoberfläche befindlichen zwiebelförmigem Erzkörper um Dimensionen von der doppelten Grösse der Pangunamine handelt.Das könnte heissen dass man mit dem heute verfügbarem technischem Equipment binnen ca. 1 Jahr aus der BCL Lease Atamo eine “potential mine” with proven ore reserves" im Wert von ca. 200 Milliarden USD werden könnte.
Nicht von ungefähr gab Peter Taylor bekannt dass BOC schnellstens wieder mit den Explorationen auf Bougainville beginnen möchte.Wenn es in den nächsten Monaten wie allgemein erwartet mit BCA Review u.Wahl des Landownersbody vorangeht wird das bestimmt noch in diesem Jahr der Fall sein ;-)))))))))))))))
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So wird bereits jetzt ein Rückgang des Kupferpreises auf $ 2,50 für 2010 nach einem nochmaligen Anstig 2011 auf $ 5,-- vorausgesagt, also bereits ein signifikanter Rückgang.
Unter dieser Prämisse halte ich ein weiteres Debattieren und Überlegen der Laute auf Bougainville für nicht sehr förderlich für die Wiedereröffnung, begeben sie sich doch selbst einigem des Profites, der jetzt noch stattfinden könnte.
Die Aufnahme der Produktion würde genau in die Zeit des Rückganges des Kupferpreises fallen, was natürlich ziemlich fatal wäre.
Wie hoch wären denn die Kosten der Produktion?
Vielleicht kann hier jemand, der detailliertere Kenntnisse hat als ich, Auskunft geben.
Dann könnte auch dieser Aspekt näher beleuchtet werden, hätte ja auch Auswirkungen auf den inneren Wert pro share.
Laut Jim Rogers dauern die Rohstoffzyklen i.d.R. 20-30 Jahre.
http://www.geld-buecher.de/...tieren-der-attraktivste-markt-der-welt/
"Historische Zahlen belegen, dass sich Booms und Rezessionen an den Aktien- und Rohstoffmärkten immer abwechseln und etwa 20-25 Jahre dauern. Kann man Rogers glauben, so befinden wir uns seit etwa 1998 wieder in einem solchen Rohstoffboom (der oben angesprochene “Superzyklus”). Gründe hierfür sind inbesondere die veralteten Produktionsanlagen überall auf der Welt (Raffinieren, Bergwerke etc.), die das Angebot verknappen und auf der anderen Seite aufstrebende Nationen in Asien, allen voran China, die die Nachfrage stark steigern. Alles spricht also dafür, dass Rohstoffe es in Zukunft auf die Frontseiten der Wirtschaftsmagazine schaffen."
Zudem war BOC zu Produktionszeiten eine der am kostengünstigsten produzierenden Minen weltweit.(Das war sogar schon so bevor BCL die Transportpipeline von der Pangunamine zum Hafen Loloho in Betrieb genommen hatte). Durch verbesserte Fördertechniken könnte sich dieser Vorteil sogar noch verstärken.Peter Taylor hat angegeben dass BOC auch bei Kupferpreisen von 2,25 USD/lb hochprofitabel ist.
Auch besteht die Möglichkeit dass evtl. zurückgehende Kupferpreise durch weiter steigende Gold- u. Silberpreise mehr als überkompensiert werden. (Nicht zu vergessen Moly- u. Rhenium,welche vor 1990 noch überhaupt nicht nachgefragt wurden.
"Dann könnte auch dieser Aspekt näher beleuchtet werden, hätte ja auch Auswirkungen auf den inneren Wert pro share."
Der innere Wert der Shares wird wohl erstmal durch Explorationen u. Bohrprogramme auf Atamo und den 6 zusätzlichen BOC gehörenden Leases massiv gesteigert.
Momentan beträgt die Marketcap 800 Mill. AUD ,abzüglich rd.150 Mill. Cash sind die nachgewiesenen Pangunareserven im Wert von 50 Mia also nicht mal mit 1,5% bewertet.
Die Wahl des Landownersbody u. der Beginn der BCA Review sollte in den nächsten Monaten für Kurssteigerungen von wenigstens 50-100% sorgen.
Alle rezenten Publikationen legen ihren Hauptfokus auf das "Problem" die 6 Landeignervereinigungen auf eine Linie zu bringen "to speak with one voice".
Dass diese sich bei ihrem Meeting in Buka schon längst gemeinsam auf die Wiedereröffnung geeinigt haben und sehnsüchtig darauf warten ihren Body endlich wählen zu dürfen wird schlichtweg ignoriert oder ist den allermeisten Autoren einfach unbekannt.
Alle diese Artikel variieren als Quelle lediglich das Peter Taylor Interview.
Der Kursanstieg von Freitag in AU begann genau zu dem Zeitpunkt an dem die Wahl von Michael Ogio zum PNG Governor General bekannt wurde.Dass damit die Regierungskrise in PNG zum grössten Teil für beendet erklärt werden kann sollte in der nächsten Woche in die BOC Aktienkurse eingepreist werden.
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16.01.2011
Source: Goldschmiede Zeitung
Papua Neuguinea
Hoffnung auf Wiederaufnahme der Arbeit in der Panguna-Mine
von Peter Henselder
Frankfurt/M. – Die nördlich von Australien gelegene, 8800 Quadratkilometer große Insel Bougainville, die politisch zu Papua Neuguinea gehört und rund 200 000 Einwohner hat, musste die hier befindliche Panguna-Mine seit 21 Jahren aus politischen Gründen geschlossen halten.
In den Jahren 1972 bis 1989 zählte sie zu den größten kombinierten Kupfer- und Goldminen der Welt. Die noch nicht geförderten Reserven von 3 bis 3,5 Millionen Tonnen Kupfer und knapp 13 Millionen Unzen Gold sind auf Basis der aktuellen Rohstoffpreise rund 50 Mrd. US-Dollar wert. Die jährliche Förderkapazität wird auf 170 000 Tonnen Kupfer und 500 000 Unzen Gold geschätzt. Auf Basis dieser Annahmen könnte die Mine noch rund 20 Jahre betrieben werden. Ende 2010 haben sich die in sechs Gruppen zusammen geschlossenen Landeigentümer nun darauf geeinigt, die Verhandlungen über eine Wiederbelebung von Panguna voranzutreiben. Ende Januar sollen die Gespräche beginnen. Getrieben werden sie von Spekulationen über noch nicht bekannte, in der Mine vermutete Reserven. Bislang wurde hier ausschließlich im Tagebau gearbeitet. Bei einer Wiederaufnahme der Produktion könnte auch eine ergänzende Untertageerschließung mit Hilfe modernster Verfahren zum Zuge kommen. Auch gehört zur Mine noch Land außerhalb der bis jetzt erschlossenen Vorkommen, in dem sich ebenfalls Rohstoffe finden lassen dürften.
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Unter https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-cgi/groups/...1-01-15-09-03-58.xls kann eine Excel-Datei heruntergeladen werden, aus der hervorgeht, dass sowohl J.P.Morgan Nominees als auch Citicorp Nominees am 15.01.11 an Wertpapierleihe-Geschäften teilgenommen haben. Das beweist meiner Meinung, dass die Nominees die hinterlegten Aktien verleihen. Warum sollten sie auch Aktien leihen, wenn doch alle notwendigen Aktien hinterlegt sind.
Unter https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-cgi/groups/...1-01-15-09-02-10.xls findet man eine Excel-Datei bei der in der Spalte N8 der Wert der BCL Aktien zum letzten Quartalsende angegeben ist, die entweder verliehen waren oder zur Leihe zur Verfügung standen.
Nun kann man ja ziemlich einfach rechnen:
Wert der Aktien: 26079268,80 AUD
Schlußkurs BCL letztes Quartalsende: 1,69 AUD
Dies ergibt 15.431.520 Aktien, die zum Jahresende verliehen waren oder zur Leihe zur Verfügung standen.
Gruß,
mike
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Gibt es da auch irgendwo eine History?
Wäre schon interessant zu sehen wie die Zahlen bei Beendigung des ADR Programms ausgesehen haben.
Evtl. 13 Mill Shares mehr short ;-))))))))))
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Was mich auch erstaunt, ist, dass es keine signifikanten Änderungen im Vergleich zu den Listen zum Quartal 1 und 2 von 2010 gibt.
Sollten die, die short sind, nicht mal schön langsam anfangen zu liefern, denn wenn der Kurs weiter steigt, oder gar mal Dividenden fließen, wirds teuer - oder?
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Wie macht man eigentlich ein offizielles Übernahmeangebot in Australien?
Australischen Wirtschaftsrechtler beauftragen...???
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http://www.hotcopper.com.au/...id=1&tid=1357115&msgid=7649645
Gute Frage die etwas mehr Aufmerksamkeit verdient ;-))))))))))))
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