AMD - langfristig ein Kauf ?? o. T.
- desastroese Performance fuer Aktionaere
- Megaboni fuer die Fuehrungsetage ( = voelliger Vertrauensverlust, da Abgehobenheit und Realitaetsverlust in der Chefetage)
- exorbitant hohe shortquote (in der Vergangenheit fast immer mit massiven kursverlusten einhergegangen)
- tanz auf 2 hochzeiten mit Gegnern die kerngesund, kapitalstark und marktbeherrschend sind
- keine Produkte am Markt, die den Markt dominieren ( Spielkonsolenchips bringen letztlich nur peanuts)
- Branche mit sehr hohen Entwicklungskosten, Mitbewerber haben den laengeren Atem und koennen AMD damit vor sich hertreiben (= wenn AMD irgendwo brauchbare Prod. anbietet, unterbieten wir den preis, selbst wenn man partiell verluste einfaehrt(Atom).)
- ZEN kommt um Jahre zu spaet
- viell. finden sich Goennerauftraege (Apple), um die Abhaengigkeit von i und n nicht zu gross werden zu lassen. Ob das ausreicht?
Persoenlich gibt mir der "boni-punkt" am meisten zu denken.
kos
Ich frage mich, wer soll AMD eigentlich übernehmen und warum?
Ganz ehrlich, ich wüßte niemanden....
Für mich wäre es deutlich wahrscheinlicher, dass AMD für den Fall, dass sich alle Hoffnungen zerschlagen und AMD es nicht schafft profitabel zu werden, C11 kommen wird! AMD könnte sich restrukturieren und sich auf Gewinn bringende Segmente beschränken - Stichwort "Spin-off"....Problem ist dabei natürlich, der Aktionär geht dabei leer aus....
SAMSUNG, APPLE, Qualcomm, BLX, Intel, Nvidia, Facebook...
Was die einzelnen Unternehmen davon hätten?
Gute Frage. Ich sitze nun eine Weile an einer Antwort, aber außer dem Zugang zum GPU Portfolio habe ich nichts anzubieten. Stress mit Intel soll es ja lt. Aussagen von AMD nicht geben. Intel benutzt ja die AMD 64 Bit Erweiterung sowie weitere Patente. Es handelt sich um eine cross-license und man müsste sich mit dem neuen AMD Eigentümer irgendwie einigen. Oder die Araber machen es wie Dell und privatisieren AMD.
I think our challenge is not related to whether were public or private - Lisa Su.
Is there anything, any impediment from an M&A or joint-venture standpoint? The answer is no, there is no impediment from an overall M&A standpoint regarding the cross-license." - Devinder Kumar.
Die Verantwortlichen sprechen die Varianten ja öffentlich an.
Schauen wir mal was die nahe Zukunft bringt...
Wenn nur die gewinnbringende(n) Sparte(n) übrig bleibt? Und außerdem, was das Wichtigste ist, gibt es bei C11 wieder genügend Investoren, die (ganz vereinfacht gesagt) als "Gegenwert" Anteile (Aktien) des restrukturierten Unternehmen erhalten - so in der Vergangenheit schon sehr oft praktiziert! Und genau deshalb eine sehr gute Lösung, da der alte Vorstand bleibt, man genügend finanzielle Mittel hat und da die Verlustbringer abgestoßen wurden, werden auch gleich schwarze Zahlen geschrieben... Genau deshalb wird die C11 ja so häufig (verglichen mit europäischen Unternehmen) "gezogen"....dumm nur, das die Aktionäre leer ausgehen! Und genau deshalb, muss man den Cashbestand genau im Auge behalten. Und genau deshalb wird sich der Vorstand auch gegen eine billige Übernahme sperren....
Falls sich Amd für Chapter 11 entscheiden sollte, hätte Amd Zeit das Unternehmen umzustrukturieren, und sich von den unprofitablen Teilen zu lösen. Die bisherigen Aktionäre würden vermutlich gänzlich leer aussteigen, weil die Schulden den Wert der Aktiva überwiegen. Die bisherigen Gläubiger würden in der Höhe oder zumindest zum Teil Anteile an dem ,,neuen'' Unternehmen nach der Umstrukturierung bekommen. Die Reorganisierung kann länger dauern ,vermutlich Jahre. Das Unternehmen geht dann wieder an die Börse und man kann wieder Aktien erwerben.
- Das wäre mein Grundgedanke -
Ich weiß nicht wie es unternehmensrechtlich in den USA funktioniert, jedoch in Österreich und in Deutschland ist es so, dass neben den Vorstand und dem Aufsichtsrat auch eine Aktionärsminderheit verlangen kann (min 5% des Grundkapitals) eine Hauptversammlung einzuberufen. Sind die Formvorschriften erfüllt muss der Vorstand bzw der Aufsichtsrat die HV einberufen. Es können des Weiteren von der Minderheit (1%) auch Ergänzungen an der Tagesordnung bzw Beschlussvorschläge einbringen. Man kann zB den Vorstandsmitgliedern das Vertrauen entziehen / ebenfalls den Aufsichtsratmitgliedern das Vertrauen entziehen. Neue Vorstandmitglieder/Aufsichtsratmitglieder die den Aktionären positiv gestimmt sind.
D.h. wenn sich eine Aktionärsminderheit zusammenschließen würde, könnte man den Vorstand und Aufsichtsrat verändern, und ebenfalls eine Veräußerung vom Unternehmen oder Unternehmensteilen verlangen. (unter Vorbehalt, dass man eine Mehrheit findet)
jetzt ist meine Frage warum sollten Fonds oder investierte Personen, welche relativ günstig die Aktie erworben haben dagegen stimmen ? die meisten Fonds haben die Aktien nicht um 4-5$+ erworben.
Achtung: NUR INFO: Keine kaufs-oder verkaufsempfehlung der wertpapiere!!!
Optionen
| Boardmail an "MM41" |
Wertpapier: AMD Advanced Micro Devi |
Für mich ist derzeit die Carizzo APU viel spannender als AMDs doch ziemlich teure HBM-Grakas der 'Fury' Serie.
Carizzo muss endlich beweien, dass AMDs langfristige APU-Strategie mit HSA funktioneirt - indem Microsoft mit Windows10 (Kernel-Version 10 deutet eine fundamentale Änderung an zu Win7/8) und vor allem Dx12 (kopie der Mantle-API, HSA-/OpenCL-enabled) nun endlich die Zügel bei der AMD-Hardware loslässt.
Ich stelle mir das ganze als einen genialen Insider-Deal zwischen MS und AMD vor, vergleichbar damals Apple mit MS - nur dass hierbei MS keine AMD aktien kaufen wird, weil sich Carizzo wie warme Semmeln verkaufen könnte.
Muss man sich vorstellen: API-technisch hat AMD derzeit die einmalige dominante Position etabliert mit Mantle-Derivaten aka OpenGL 'Vulcan' und Dx12 - also den einzigen beiden nennenswerten Grafik-APIs - und nVidia kann nur zuschauen...
Wie bei Fuelcell Energy hege ich auch bei dieser Aktie eher die Meinung: kaufen und liegen lassen.
Grüße
Zitat:
".6 Reasons To Buy AMD Now
Sep. 3, 2015 9:58 AM • AMD
Summary
At current prices, it takes very little good news to send the stock soaring, and a lot of bad news to lower it even slightly.
Q3 guidance was very low by AMD, and will easily be beaten.
AMD's GPU market share has bottomed, and will show market share increases in Q3.
For computer companies, there is no better indicator of future stock price than the technology they have. There are other factors, of course, but this is the most salient.
Some of the other factors include the price of the stock, and the history of how it reacts to news. The markets the company is in also play a role, as well as current expectations for the company.
I have said for well over a year, 2015 was going to be extremely difficult for AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), and the company has not disappointed with egregious losses, and very weak guidance. But, that put the stock where it is now. So, why write an article about why now is a good time to buy AMD? Part of it is that price.
At below $2, the stock historically has rewarded investors quite well.
At the time of this writing, AMD is selling for $1.77 a share. Yes, there are reasons for this, including a dismal 2015. Yes, there is heavy debt. Yes, the PC market is declining. Yes, AMD is not going to release any significantly new technology for probably a year. There will be people that will even show by this or that metric, AMD is actually expensive.
The reality is different, because judging the stock by common parameters ignores the enormous potential of the company. This is primarily because it is one of two companies (VIA is essentially irrelevant) that can sell x86 processors. The PC market is still huge, and so is the x86 server market, so this is an extremely important consideration.
The company is also one of two companies making powerful GPUs, which is also a very large market.
Because of this, the potential upside for a company with AMD's low market cap is enormous, and the market reacts very strongly to any positive news.
Put another way, it's much more likely AMD will double, than go to 0. We only need to look at the history of the stock price, even recently, to see this is patently true.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is having problems significantly improving its products in the PC market.
We've seen Intel's 14nm process didn't improve performance much, if at all, and Skylake was only a very small improvement over Broadwell, which was a very small improvement over Haswell.
This is not to discredit Intel, it is likely the design is at the point where further improvement is very difficult. But, it also gives AMD a reasonable chance of creating competitive performance with the next generation Zen processor.
Keeping in mind this is a brand new design, on Samsung's (OTC:SSNLF) 14nm FinFET process, with a very well established processor designer (Jim Keller), it's essentially certain it will close the gap with Intel in 2016.
Clearly, right now is the best competitive situation Intel will be in for the foreseeable future, and will cease to be the case some time in 2016.
AMD is gaining traction with OEMs.
I wasn't expecting so many examples of design wins with Carrizo, so am still somewhat surprised by the announcements we keep seeing. While clearly not as good as Intel's best devices, nor in nearly as many designs, it still apparently performs well enough to be attractive at certain price points.
Perhaps the biggest example of this is AMD's ongoing relationship with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) with respect to GPUs, particularly with professional devices. This not only sells products, but does give AMD credibility, which it has lacked in the professional market.
It's also important to note that OEMs do not want AMD to disappear into irrelevance. They remember all too well Intel's behavior when completely in control, and a stronger AMD gives them better leverage.
It is also worth bringing up that AMD has pushed the market forward in a very positive way, with technologies like Mantle, HSA, HBM, FreeSync, etc.
This is not to suggest that OEMs are willing put out products they believe will not be attractive, just to help AMD. However, in close situations, this bias can have some impact.
AMD's Q3 guidance is very low.
One of the more egregious aspects of AMD's Q2 conference call was the very light revenue guidance for Q3, indicating a 6% revenue increase. Considering Q2 had several non-recurring negative factors, and Q3 is seasonally the strongest for console chips, this guidance not only can be, but will be, beaten.
One of those negative factors was the impact of Windows 10. Lisa Su mentioned in the conference call that some design wins had been delayed from Q2 to Q3 because of this. Also, although it's not clear whether Windows 10 will promote significant customer purchases, we do know OEMs leaned out inventory in anticipation of its release. Those inventory levels should increase slightly, and return to normality.
Another significant improvement in Q3 will be that AMD finished clearing out downstream channel inventory in Q2, which negatively impacted sales.
Q3 will also be the first full quarter that Carrizo is generating revenue, and given the number of OEM design wins, this should improve AMD's situation in the PC market slightly.
Perhaps most importantly, towards the end of Q2, AMD released significant GPU products. This included not only the Fury line, but also the R9 3xx series of cards. While the latter are relatively minor refreshes, buyers often delay purchases when new releases are imminent. This is not only true for those who are considering the newer product, but also for those who believe the price for the current product will go down when the newer ones are released.
AMD GPU technology is much stronger in Q3 than it was in Q2.
Much of this is perception, but not all. The Fury line appears to have moved past the supply issues it had, and in any event will be available for the entire quarter, not just the very end. Also, the Fury Nano is an extremely attractive product. It is just my opinion, and time may prove it false, but the Nano could easily be the most successful of the Fury products, despite it being largely viewed as a niche product. Why? It's elegant. It's efficient. It's powerful, without being power hungry. It's also taking the best dies, cherry picked to perform well even with lower power. Although the price is high, AMD finally has a product better at many things than NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), at any price. It's a great product, with performance per watt parameters that greatly exceed anything AMD had prior to this.
I doubt the GPU virtualization technology AMD released is going to have a huge sales impact, as it's a niche within a small market (professional graphics), but it does improve AMD's feature set, and how it is perceived. This is also something that could become more important as support around it develops, and scenarios become more visible.
Last, and most importantly, DX12 has dramatically changed the relative performance in the mainstream PC market. If you wondered why AMD beat NVIDIA to win consoles, one reason was the GPU architecture was more intelligent, and more flexible. With relatively weak CPUs, this was particularly important in consoles.
Many thought AMD's win in consoles would correlate to better support in PC games. If this happened, it was never apparent. The reason seems more clear now; console developers had to use more efficient APIs on their consoles, whereas they were confronted by the considerably different, and less efficient DX11 on PCs.
It also gives a much clearer picture of AMD's strategy. This is a very intelligent, coherent plan, although it sometimes did not appear so due to the lack of information we had.
Considering the lead times, it's very possible AMD developed GCN fully aware it would be used in situations where the processor was not very powerful. Of course this is the case in the consoles. As mentioned, this was likely an important consideration for both Sony (NYSE:SNE) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). With Microsoft either unable to, or unwilling to, move to a more efficient programming model in the PC market, AMD essentially forced them to by developing themselves, and making it broadly available. Microsoft certainly did not wish to lose control over the API, which would have made code less difficult to port to other platforms, so were forced to offer something comparable.
NVIDIA made their hardware much more tuned for Microsoft's than current software environment. This allowed greater efficiency than AMD's products, which had powerful features which could not be utilized effectively, and thus took up space and used power to poor effect. Even so, this was not a mistake, as the consoles were worth it.
DX12 has changed this materially. At first, I wanted to see more benchmarks, even though all indications were that DX12 should perform better on AMD hardware, relatively speaking. The spat between NVIDIA and Oxide further validated this assessment, clearly indicating the weakness of NVIDIA's technology with DX12.
There is little or no doubt that AMD will gain market share in Q3 from NVIDIA, for all these factors. Although DX12 games will be few and far between initially, AMD products are more "future-proof", in a sense. Also, because companies have been using features like Asynchronous Computing on consoles for quite some time, it's reasonable to expect an easier learning curve than would otherwise be the case. The perception that AMD is better for future software environments, makes for a much more favorable impression than the company had in Q2.
The long-term reward justifies the risk.
As many know, AMD will be releasing a completely new x86 design called Zen in 2016, as well as a new GPU architecture, both on FinFETs. While we do not currently know the performance, should Zen be competitive, AMD's prospects will change enormously. The current situation, where Intel's "Core" processor line is greatly superior, allows AMD little hope of improving significantly in the PC market. There's little doubt Zen will, minimally, significantly close the performance gap, which in itself would help AMD's position. Should the performance gap be eliminated, or quite small, the opportunities for the company are so significant, the stock could go up many times its current price.
It's also well known that AMD GPU technology is very old, with Fury being just a tweaked Tonga, and Tonga just a tweak itself. 2016 should bring with a significantly redesigned GPU. It will also bring with it greater DX12 adoption by game makers. These offer an excellent opportunity for substantial growth.
We do not currently have a clear indication of how attractive either technology will be, but the cost to throw the dice is very low, compared to the reward if they land right.
All in all, for all the above reasons, this is a very good opportunity to invest in AMD. While there are always risks with any stocks, they pale in comparison with the potential awards at the current price.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AMD.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article."
Strategic Realignment to Strengthen Performance in Traditional Graphics Markets and Establish Initiatives for Leadership in Emerging Immersive Computing Opportunities in VR and AR
SUNNYVALE, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 09/09/15 -- AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) today announced the promotion of Raja Koduri (47) to senior vice president and chief architect, Radeon Technologies Group, reporting to president and CEO Dr. Lisa Su. In his expanded role, Koduri is responsible for overseeing all aspects of graphics technologies used in AMD's APU, discrete GPU, semi-custom, and GPU compute products.
"We are entering an age of immersive computing where we will be surrounded by billions of brilliant pixels that enhance our daily lives in ways we have yet to fully comprehend," said Dr. Su. "AMD is well positioned to lead this transition with graphics IP that powers the best gaming and visual computing experiences today. With the creation of the Radeon Technologies Group we are putting in place a more agile, vertically-integrated graphics organization focused on solidifying our position as the graphics industry leader, recapturing profitable share across traditional graphics markets, and staking leadership positions in new markets such as virtual and augmented reality."
"AMD is one of the few companies with the engineering talent and IP to make emerging immersive computing opportunities a reality," said Koduri. "Now, with the Radeon Technologies Group, we have a dedicated team focused on growing our business as we create a unique environment for the best and brightest minds in graphics to be a part of the team re-defining the industry."
Koduri has more than 20 years of hands-on experience advancing the visual computing experience on personal computers, from content creation to GPU system architecture and design. Koduri most recently was responsible for driving AMD's visual and accelerated computing innovations, including the development of the industry's first graphics chip with integrated High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to deliver new levels of performance in smaller, more power-efficient graphics cards. Koduri has also been responsible for leading AMD's LiquidVR initiative to deliver the best possible virtual reality (VR) experiences through the development of new technologies and partnerships designed to make everything from gaming to VR cinema every bit as immersive and interactive as the real world. He joined AMD from Apple, where he was director of graphics architecture. Prior to joining Apple, Koduri served in a range of graphics leadership roles at AMD and ATI. Koduri holds a Master of Technology degree in Electronics and Communications from IIT Kharagpur, India.