persönliche Beobachtungen zum US Immobilienmarkt
Im Nachgang zu dem heute hier geposteten Handelsblatt - Artikel von Permanent der Vollständigkeit halber noch ein kleiner Chart, welcher in der Papier-Artikel-Version des HB mit eingefügt ist.
Gruß + Stöffen
Starker_Einbruch_US-Immo-Markt.jpg
WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 23, 2006) - First mortgage originations volume decreased 16 percent based in the first half of 2006 according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Mortgage Originations Survey released today. The survey results continue to show strong demand for interest-only and payment option mortgages, so-called "non-traditional" products.
"In the context of a decelerating housing market and a slowing of overall mortgage originations activity, consumers continued to choose IOs and payment option loans in the first half of 2006," said Doug Duncan, MBA's chief economist and senior vice president of research and business development. "In particular, fixed-rate IO volume increased markedly. As expected, consumers respond to changing opportunities in the marketplace, but it looks like these products serve an important need."
Key findings from the survey (percentages are based on dollar volume of originated loans):
Total first mortgage originations decreased by 16 percent from the second half of 2005 to the first half of 2006. The decrease in originations was driven by a 10 percent decline in purchase mortgage volume and a 22 percent decline in refinance volume.
For first mortgages, fixed-rate loans, including IOs, accounted for 49 percent of loans in the first half of 2006 compared to 47 percent in the second half of 2005.
IOs accounted for 26 percent of originations in the first half of 2006. However, the composition of IO originations changed, with fixed rate IOs accounting for 24 percent of all IOs in the first half of 2006 compared to 13 percent in the second half of 2005. Payment option mortgages ("Option ARMs") accounted for 15 percent of the dollar volume of originations in the first half of 2006, up from 8 percent in the second half of 2005. Macht 26% IO + 15% Option ARMS = 41% Non-Traditional Loans.
First-time homebuyer purchases represented almost one in three home purchases in the first half of 2006. Their average loan amount was $189,883, significantly less than the average loan amount of $236,517 for non first-time homebuyers.
Of the first half originations, 19 percent were for single-family attached homes, 75 percent for single-family detached homes, 1 percent for manufactured and mobile homes and 4 percent for 2-4 unit structures. About half of single-family attached home originations were for condos or cooperatives, the remainder being for other single-family attached properties such as townhouses, duplexes and rowhouses.
From the second half of 2005 to the first half of 2006, reverse mortgage dollar volume decreased 23 percent, with FHA's Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs) decreasing by 16 percent and other reverse mortgages decreasing 76 percent. However, the total number of reverse mortgage loans increased 31 percent. This result was driven by a 7 percent decline in large dollar balance reverse mortgages, but a 32 percent increase in smaller balance HECM loans.
Data on second mortgage originations:
Compared with the second half of 2005, the first half of 2006 saw origination volume of all second mortgages increase 1 percent.
As with first mortgages, there was a trend towards fixed-rate loans. Data from repeater companies indicates that closed-end seconds increased 59 percent while variable-rate HELOCs increased only 3 percent.
The percentage of second mortgage originations that were closed-end increased progressively over the half to 34 percent of dollars and 42 percent of loans in the first half of 2006 from 22 percent of dollars and 32 percent of loans in the second half of 2005.
The survey included 115 participants, including almost all of the top 30 originators. During the first half of 2006, survey participants originated $640 billion in first mortgages and $175 billion in second mortgages.
Optionen
Housing slump may slow consumer spending
Dallas Fed Reserve Bank research implies possible link between two readings.
November 29 2006: 2:50 PM EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Slumping U.S. housing may hurt the economy by curbing consumer spending, which was fueled as homeowners took more cash out of the homes as prices rose, the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank said in a research letter on Wednesday.
Mortgage cash withdrawals via home-equity loans, cash-out mortgage refinancing and smaller down payments have allowed Americans in recent years to tap housing wealth to free up cash for consumption.
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If you are trying to sell your home, prices aren't what they used to be. CNN's Dan Lothian reports (November 29)
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But there are growing concerns that the recent sharp downturn in the housing market may prompt consumers to stop their spending spree. Personal consumption makes up for roughly two-thirds of the economy.
In a research letter titled "Making Sense of the U.S. Housing Slowdown," Dallas Fed senior economist John V. Duca calculated the strong pace of mortgage equity withdrawal may have boosted annual consumption growth by 1 to 3 percentage points in the first half of the current decade.
That implied that a slowing of home-price appreciation in the low single digits might shave 1 to 2 percentage points off consumption growth and 0.75 to 1.5 percentage points from gross domestic product for a few years.
But the letter noted that predicting how much a slowing housing market will affect consumption was difficult.
"Considerable uncertainty exists about how much a slowdown in mortgage equity withdrawal [MEW] might restrain consumption growth," it said.
"Key issues include how much home-price appreciation might slow, how much the deceleration would affect MEW and how much a slowdown in MEW would restrain consumer spending."
U.S. mortgage equity withdrawals jumped to a record 5 percent of income in 2005, but slowed sharply in the second quarter when a rise in home prices decelerated. That indicated that mortgage equity withdrawals, a source for consumer spending, were highly sensitive to housing inflation.
Major builders, including Pulte Home (up $0.25 to $31.03, Charts), Centex (Charts), D.R. Horton (up $0.52 to $25.32, Charts), Lennar (down $0.04 to $49.83, Charts) and Toll Brothers (Charts) have all seen sales and earnings fall sharply this year in the face of the housing slowdown while Wal-Mart (up $0.04 to $46.75, Charts) announced that November sales would be disappointing this year.
Optionen
By Peter G. Miller
The biggest asset held by most of us — the thing that makes us as wealthy as we are — is real estate. According to the Federal Reserve, in the second quarter of 2006 the net worth of our personal real estate, value less mortgages, was $11 trillion — that's far more than stock ($5.4 trillion) or mutual funds ($4.5 trillion).
"Given so much wealth — and given such broad distribution — it's easy to look at foreclosure statistics and pretty much believe they only impact other people," says James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties.
"If your house is not being foreclosed then why should you worry — especially if your home is mortgage-free or financed with a fixed-rate loan?” asks Saccacio. “If you look at the numbers it turns out there's very good reason to be concerned."
Consider why your home has value: It has a given location, size and condition. To get a home just like your house buyers will have to pay a certain amount of money.
But what if your home — with its ideal size, location and condition — was in a market where people suddenly didn't have to pay so much? What if there was a surplus of properties? The value of your home would fall because less expensive alternatives would be available. The same tide that lifts all boats also lowers them.
Consider Texas. With 5.7 million people, Dallas-Fort Worth is the fifth-largest metro area in the United States. It's got a good climate and a growing population.
But if you own real estate in Dallas the market is not so great. Why?
“So far this year, more than 35,000 homes in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have been posted for foreclosure. More than 15,000 homes have been taken by lenders when the owners couldn't keep up with the payments,” says real estate columnist Steve Brown with The Dallas Morning News. “That means more than a quarter of the pre-owned houses up for sale in the Dallas-Fort Worth area are foreclosed properties.”
Look at real estate trends in Dallas during the past year and what do you see? Sales are down, according to the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. Dollar volume has fallen. Median sale prices are lower. The number of available listings is up. Days on the market have increased.
The catch is that foreclosures don't just impact owners and lenders. In sufficient numbers, foreclosures impact you whether or not your home is for sale and regardless of how it is financed. As the example in Dallas shows, foreclosures can:
· Reduce the market value of your home, which means you may be forced to sell for less.
· Reduce your home equity if you are not selling which means you will be less able to refinance mortgages if rates decline or if you want to switch from an adjustable-rate product to fixed-rate financing.
· Lower home values, which means fewer dollars will be available from home equity loans to start a business or underwrite a college education.
· Create a buyer's market where it may take longer to sell your home and where additional discounts and incentives may be required to close a sale.
Foreclosures in sufficient numbers have a community impact. They reduce the value of local homes, whether those houses are free and clear of all mortgages or financed to the hilt with the latest mortgage project.
“It may not be fair, but it doesn't matter whether a home is being foreclosed because of illegal flipping, financial hardships or loans that are suddenly more expensive once 'start' rates end,” according to RealtyTrac's Saccacio. “As soon as the number of foreclosures rises above a level that's usual and normal for a community, home values across an entire area will fall.”
Consider a November 2006 study by the Baltimore-based Goldseker Foundation. It shows that "mortgage foreclosures have lowered housing values across Baltimore — in the aggregate — by just under $1.8 billion in the last two years (2004 and 2005). As of 2006, the estimated aggregate value of residential real estate for tax purposes in the city of Baltimore is approximately $17.8 billion, suggesting that between 5 percent and 10 percent of the value of residential real estate is lost as a result of these foreclosures."
Since property taxes fuel local and state governments, the reduction in home values not only impacts individual property owners, it also reduces local revenues. According to the Goldseker report, Baltimore will lose $42 million in tax revenues during 2006 because of property value declines.
"What these figures show is that foreclosures are not just a problem for owners in financial trouble,” says RealtyTrac's Saccacio. “We all have a stake in the effort to reduce foreclosure numbers for the very simple reason that a surplus of foreclosures can reduce the value of all homes in a given community — including your home and my home.”
Optionen
Unter solchen Bedingungen eine Bodenbildung zu erwarten - wie der "Konsens" es tut - ist schlicht illusionär.
12/6/2006 8:32 AM EST
The MBA index is up 8.9%, and refinancing activity jumped 13.7%, marking the largest weekly gain in 14 months.
The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is down to 5.98% from 6.13% last week. That's the first time it's slipped below 6% since October 2005. The rate on the 15-year fixed is down to 5.66% from 5.86% last week, now at its lowest level of 2006.
Americans Will Shop Till their Dollars Drop | ||||
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While Americans were busy digesting their Thanksgiving feasts, the rest of the world was barfing up dollars. As a result of our massive trade deficits, foreigners certainly have their bellies full of them. This week’s action in the Forex markets indicates that they may have finally eaten their fill. Unfortunately, the bad taste will likely linger as the dollar’s rout has only just begun.
As American consumers hit the stores this black Friday, few will have noticed that the most significant mark-down occurred in the value of their currency. If anything can be said to have been blackened this Friday it’s the U.S. dollar. While the media remains focused on the dollars Americans are irresponsibly spending, the real story lies in the loss in value of those dollars that foreigners are foolishly saving. The losses are particularly more pronounced among foreign central banks, most notably China, whose foreign exchange reserves, the vast majority being U.S dollars, recently eclipsed 1 trillion. When foreigners finally decide that they have had enough, their reluctance to accumulate additional dollars will mean that America’s perpetual shopping spree will finally come to a screeching halt.
This week the U.S. dollar was carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey. Against the Swiss franc, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen, the dollar lost 3%, 2.2%, 2% and 1.8% of its value respectively. To put those declines into perspective, in terms of the euro the Dow Jones’s 60 point plus decline this week translates into the equivalent of a 320 point decline when measured in euros. In fact, year to date the Dow is only up by about 3.5% when priced in euro’s, compared to its 14.5 % advance when measured in depreciating U.S. dollars. From its high in 2000, the euro price of the Dow is down by over 27%. In terms of gold, the world’s only legitimate money, the picture is even worse. Priced in gold the Dow is off better than 50% from its 2000 peak, and actually down over 7% thus far this year. So much for Wall Street’s phony rally!
At the risk of over using the term, one conundrum is the relative strength in the bond market given the dollar’s recent weakness. From our creditors’ perspectives, the only thing worse than holding dollars is holding future claims to dollars, which is what bonds in fact represent. When foreigners begin factoring ten percent plus annual dollar declines into U.S. bond yields, bond prices will head south fast.
It also never ceases to amaze me how U.S. investors can be so fixated on stock prices yet remain oblivious to what those prices actually denote. Stock prices of course represent quantities of dollars. Therefore, true stock market values actually depend on the purchasing power of the dollar. Concentrating on the former while ignoring the latter is one of the biggest mistakes most investors make.
Unfortunately the technical outlook for the dollar, and by extension that of the entire U.S. economy and the financial markets it supports, is rapidly deteriorating. The dollar Index, now trading near 83.5, has broken though some key support levels and the next test will likely be its all time record lows of just under 80. If that test fails, as it most likely will, look out below. Once the dollar moves into uncharted territory, the selling could intensify, with the dollar index trading below 70 in short order. My ultimate target for that index is 40, which would literally cut the dollar’s value in half. I think the entire move could occur in just two years. Again, putting that decline into perspective, it is the equivalent of over a 6,600 point decline in the Dow. Of course this assumes the Fed finally gets religion and Congress and the President heed its sermon. If not, and hyperinflation ensues, the dollar index could fall far lower, perhaps even breaking into the single digits before bottoming out.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking that this is somehow a problem for foreigners. It is Americans who will feel the losses the greatest, as it will result in substantial increases in both consumer prices and interest rates, and in declining assets prices, particularly for residential real estate. In the other words, what we own will be worth a lot less and what we need to buy will cost a lot more.
Don’t wait for reality to set in. Protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it’s too late. Download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp
Peter D. Schiff, President
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
10 Corbin Drive, Suite B
Darien, Ct. 06820
phone 203-662-9700
toll free 888-377-3722
email schiff@europac.net
web www.europac.net
Das ist so, als würde jemand Feuerwehr-Equipment verkaufen und ständig "Es brennt!" schreiend durch die Straßen laufen.
http://briandiez.blogspot.com/
Mortgage-Trapped (= "In der Hypotheken-Falle" - A.L.)
Homeowners With New Exotic Loans Aren't Always Aware Of the Risk Involved
By Kirstin Downey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 14, 2007; F01
At 64, and looking toward his retirement next year, Willie Lee Howard agreed to refinance his duplex in Northeast Washington, thinking that a fixed-rate loan would help stabilize his finances.
What Howard got instead was a mortgage he did not understand. Baffled by the loan documents he was mailed after the closing, he consulted an AARP lawyer and learned that he now had an interest-only loan, a new and controversial kind of mortgage. Howard was told that under its terms, his mortgage balance will rise instead of fall and that he will need to refinance in 10 years, when he may be too old to work.
"This is a bunch of junk they done to me," said Howard, a construction worker.
Howard's chagrin at his mortgage's complex provisions illustrates the confusion felt by many borrowers struggling to adapt to a radically transformed home lending market. Consumer advocates say most people learned about mortgages from their parents and grandparents, who typically put down 20 percent on a 30-year fixed loan on which they always knew what their payments would be.
Those long-standing assumptions have been challenged in recent years by the rapid proliferation of new loan products with looser credit requirements and fluctuating payment plans. Although the newer mortgage products allow almost anyone to buy or refinance a house, consumer groups say the loans often contain land mines hidden in the fine print.
Consumer advocates say the loosened standards are putting more people at risk as loans originally designed for sophisticated individuals are being marketed to far-less-savvy borrowers.
"Consumers haven't caught up with the dynamics of the market," said Allen Fishbein, director of housing and credit policy at the Consumer Federation of America. "They are still thinking of how it use to be, but it isn't like that anymore."
Product Comparison
Alternative mortgage loans were first developed for a handful of people with promising long-term earnings potential: young lawyers destined to make partner, doctors finishing medical school or stock brokers who get large commission checks several times a year.
But as housing prices have surged, outstripping wages in the most expensive markets, alternative financing has become a popular path to homeownership.
These new loans come in many forms. "Nontraditional" mortgages allow borrowers to pay only the interest on the loan or even only a portion of the interest each month, without being required to pay down the principal. Nationwide, more than a third of borrowers who got loans in the first nine months of 2006 got nontraditional loans, up from about 2 percent in 2000, according to First American LoanPerformance, a real estate information firm.
"Piggyback" loans allow people to borrow for a down payment, sparing buyers the trouble of saving for years and letting them avoid paying mortgage insurance, which is usually required on loans with down payments of less than 20 percent. In 2005, about 22 percent of people buying homes took out piggyback mortgages, according to the Federal Reserve.
"Subprime" loans are available to people who have bad credit, though they charge interest rates 2 to 3 percent higher than the rates charged to borrowers with good credit. About a fifth of the loans originated in 2006 now fall into that category, up from about 5 percent in 1999, according to the Federal Reserve.
Jim Sugarman, supervisory attorney at AARP's financial-abuse unit, says these alternative loans offer new opportunities but also carry added risks. About 59 percent of subprime loans have adjustable rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and any sudden spike in interest rates would push payments higher.
In a rising real estate market like that of the past few years, borrowers who fall behind on their mortgages could sell before going into default. For that reason, lenders haven't been too worried about repayment. But now, with home prices flat or falling, many homeowners may not be able to sell their homes for enough to cover their mortgage balances.
Alternative loan products are giving many people access to homeownership, counters Steve Calem, vice president with American Bank in Bethesda. "Interest-only loans help people get into their first house," he said. "Interest-only loans minimize their payments, when people know their income is going to be going up. It gives them flexibility."
Most consumers have only themselves to blame because they are not doing enough research on the mortgage market as it has grown increasingly complex, said Christopher Cruise, who trains mortgage brokers at major lending companies.
"The American consumer's ignorance of mortgage procedures in the past hurt them a little," he said. "What's different now is that it'll hurt them a lot. The stakes are a lot higher."
Persistent Phone Calls
Howard said he was persuaded to refinance his house by a "very friendly" loan officer who called once a week for a year, telling him the time was right to stabilize his finances.
After deciding to take out the loan, he said he told the lender he would need help reading the paperwork at the closing. He said he still doesn't understand exactly what kind of mortgage he signed.
Howard's mortgage contains several of these new features, said Sugarman, who has reviewed the documents. It is an interest-only loan, which is one of the nontraditional mortgages designed to help wealthy people manage their cash flow, and for people whose incomes are likely to rise -- not for those whose incomes, such as Howard's, are likely to fall as they retire on Social Security. The rate is fixed, but only for 10 years. Sugarman said Howard appears to have qualified for it with a "NINA" loan, a "no-income, no assets" loan that required minimal income documentation.
"It's a very exotic mortgage, and he had no idea he was getting that," Sugarman said. "He thought he was doing something smart."
Sugarman said that in the past, lenders didn't make these kinds of loans because they put financial institutions at risk. Bad real estate loans marked the beginning of the Great Depression, and subsequent banking reforms required lenders to consider the soundness of their lending practices. That made loans safer for borrowers and lenders alike.
What has changed is the booming market for real estate securities. Major financial institutions now put thousands of loans together and sell them in slices to investors. That means lenders seldom get caught holding the loans. If an individual loan goes bad, the effect is dissipated among many investors.
The new mortgage products have fueled record profits for the lending industry in recent years. Brokers can generate tens of thousands of dollars in additional fees, beyond what they earn on traditional mortgages, by placing borrowers in these loans, Cruise said.
The question is whether some consumers can adequately protect themselves in the complex financial transactions of the new mortgage marketplace.
A Tough Price to Pay
Willie Webb Jr. of Lauderdale Lakes, Fla., was pleased for his daughter at first when she told him she had refinanced the home she had inherited from her grandparents, reducing her interest rate and allowing her to pay off some bills. He assumed she had gotten a fixed-rate mortgage, the kind of loan with which he is most familiar. A few months later, she called him in a panic. It turned out that she had an adjustable-rate mortgage in which the payments starting rising almost immediately, and when Webb investigated further, he learned that she can't get out of the loan without paying a $6,000 prepayment penalty.
Webb is angry that his daughter, Keisha Smith, a single mother with four children, agreed to take a loan she did not understand. He has made the payments for her some months because otherwise she would risk losing her home.
Many newer mortgage products make it difficult and costly for borrowers like Smith to extricate themselves. The mortgage bankers group recently reported that more than 50 percent of some kinds of adjustable-rate loans contain prepayment penalties, which require borrowers to shell out big bucks to break free. A prepayment penalty of about 3 percent of the mortgage loan -- about $9,000 on a $300,000 mortgage -- is not unusual, according to the Federal Reserve.
A study by the Center for Responsible Lending, a consumer-advocacy group, said last year that about two-thirds of Virginians with high-interest, subprime loans also have prepayment penalties. In Maryland, where prepayment penalties are restricted by law, about a quarter of subprime borrowers have them. (Comparable figures were not available for the District.)
The biggest risk lurking behind all these loans is the threat of foreclosure. Last month, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage delinquencies were on the rise, particularly for costly subprime loans. Likewise, the Center for Responsible Lending said in a recent report that more than 19 percent of subprime loans made in 2005 and 2006 are at risk of foreclosure.
Federal and state banking regulators have instructed lenders to make sure before issuing a loan that borrowers can keep up if payments are adjusted upward. Consumer advocates and some members of Congress have asked that the guidance also include what is called a 2-28 mortgage, under which borrowers have low, teaser rates during the first two years, after which payments increase.
Consumer groups also say they would like to see a "suitability" standard imposed on mortgages whereby lenders would be required to show that people got loans appropriate for them. Sugarman, for example, thinks putting Howard into an interest-only loan left the man with a "horrible situation." But banking trade groups oppose these proposals, saying they could curtail lending to some people who would otherwise have trouble getting loans they need.
Additional government regulation "could impede the ability of the market" to change to meet demand, said Doug Duncan, the chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.
But Fishbein, the consumer activist, said legislators, regulators and lenders need to do more to protect consumers.
"We're not confident buyers are getting all the information they need," he said. "They don't understand the toxic environment."
Mittwoch 21. Februar 2007, 11:47 Uhr
http://de.biz.yahoo.com/21022007/3/dax-knackt-jahren-7000-punkte.html
Frankfurt/Main (dpa) - Der wichtigste Börsenindex DAX hat am Mittwoch erstmals seit mehr als sechs Jahren wieder die psychologisch wichtige Marke von 7000 Punkten geknackt. Gleich in den ersten Handelsminuten gewann der Leitindex 0,27 Prozent und sprang auf 7001 Punkte.
Zuletzt hatte der Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX (Xetra: Nachrichten) ) die 7000er-Marke im November 2000 übersprungen. Auch für den MDAX (Xetra: Nachrichten) der mittelgroßen Werte ging es auf Rekordhoch: Er stieg
ANZEIGE
mit plus 0,21 Prozent auf 10222 Zähler. Nach Ansicht von Ökonomen treiben die Rekordgewinne der deutschen Banken und Großkonzerne die Aktienmärkte. Aber auch die Weltwirtschaft und die gute konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland sowie Fusionen und Übernahmespekulationen bringen den Aktienindex nach oben. Deshalb rechnen die meisten Experten beim DAX mit weiter steigenden Kursen und einem Jahresendstand von bis zu 7500 Punkten.
Der DAX hatte seinen bisherigen Höchststand im März 2000 mit 8056 Punkten erreicht. Doch dann platzte die Technologieblase, und Bilanzskandale in den USA sowie die Terroranschlägen vom 11. September 2001 ließen den Index der 30 wichtigsten Unternehmen sinken. Es ging schnell abwärts, im März 2003 sank der DAX auf einen Tiefstand von 2202 Punkten.
Am Mittwoch wurde der DAX von positiven Unternehmensnachrichten getrieben. Aktien des Pharmaunternehmens Fresenius Medical Care setzten sich nach einer positiven Studie von J.P. Morgan mit einem Plus von 2,24 Prozent auf 114,09 Euro zunächst an die DAX-Spitze. Titel der Deutschen Börse legten vor Bekanntgabe der Bilanz 2006 um 1,45 Prozent auf 165,73 Euro zu. Das abgelaufene Jahr dürfte für den Frankfurt Marktbetreiber ein Rekordjahr gewesen sein. Das Unternehmen legt am Mittwoch nach dem Börsenschluss in Europa seine Bilanz vor. Dagegen gaben DaimlerChrysler-Aktien am Indexende um 1,06 Prozent auf 54,90 Euro nach. Laut einem Bericht des «Wall Street Journal» wollen weder Renault (Paris: FR0000131906 - Nachrichten) noch Nissan dem Autokonzern seine kriselnde US-Tocher Chrysler abkaufen.
(DAS INVESTMENT) Die sinkenden Immobilienpreise in den USA könnten die Aktienmärkte der Schwellenländer einbrechen lassen. Davor warnt Hedge-Fonds-Legende und Rohstoff-Experte Jim Rogers in einem Interview mit der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters. Rogers zufolge könnten die Kurse von Schwellenländeraktien um bis zu 80 Prozent einbrechen.
„Einige Schwellenländermärkte werden höchstwahrscheinlich völlig zusammenbrechen“, sagt Rogers. Er selbst habe sich daher bereits von Schwellenländeraktien getrennt – mit Ausnahme chinesischer Werte. Zwar erwartet er auch für Aktien aus dem Land des Lächelns Kurseinbrüche von 30 bis 40 Prozent. In diesem Fall sei er jedoch bereit, diese hinzunehmen. Schließlich sei China weltweit die am stärksten wachsende Volkswirtschaft.
Der Grund für Rogers pessimistische Prognose ist die Entwicklung am US-Immobilienmarkt. Dort sind die Preise für Eigenheime im vergangenen Jahr kaum noch gestiegen, nachdem sie zuvor jahrelang in die Höhe geschnellt waren. Eine Studie des US-Immobilienbewerters Zillow zeigt sogar, dass Privathäuser in den USA Ende 2006 im Schnitt ein halbes Prozent billiger waren als ein Jahr zuvor. Die Folge: Viele Hypotheken auf Eigenheime sind nicht mehr gedeckt. Daher sind die Aktienkurse von US-Hypothekenbanken bereits in der vergangenen Woche gefallen und haben Finanzwerte weltweit mitgerissen.
Rogers zufolge sind die Korrekturen am US-Immobilienmarkt noch lange nicht vorbei. „In einigen Regionen der USA werden die Immobilienpreise um 40 bis 50 Prozent sinken“, sagt er. Diese Entwicklung werde vor allem auf die Aktienmärkte der Schwellenländer übergreifen.
INFO: Jim Rogers hat 1970 gemeinsam mit George Soros den Hedge-Fonds Quantum Fund gegründet. Dabei gehörten sie zu den ersten Hedge-Fonds-Managern, die ihre Produkte in den karibischen Steuerparadiesen auflegten. So konnten sie unabhängig von der amerikanischen Finanzaufsicht handeln und Steuervorteile nutzen. Im Jahr 1980 zog sich Rogers aus dem Management des Fonds zurück. Seitdem verwaltet er nur noch sein eigenes Vermögen, während Soros den Quantum Fund managt.
-thg-
© Der Fonds
19.03.2007US NAHB/WF Hausmarktindex März
Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zum US-amerikanischen Hausmarktindex der National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo ("NAHB/WF Housing Market Index", HMI) für März 2007
aktuell:
Der US-amerikanische Housing Market Index notiert im März bei 36. Im Vormonat hatte der index noch bei 39 gestanden.
Anxiety over trouble in the subprime mortgage market has home builders changing their vision of a recovery in the housing market. After a slow and steady rise from a low in September, the monthly survey of home builder confidence from the National Association of Home Builders slipped three points in March.
"Builders are uncertain about the consequences of tightening mortgage lending standards for their home sales down the line,” says NAHB chief economist Dave Seiders. “Some are already seeing effects of the subprime shakeout on current sales activity.”
As defaults and foreclosures rise, at 4.95% in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to the most recent survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association, subprime lenders are feeling a world of hurt. Subprimes are leading the surge in defaults and foreclosures, and more than two-dozen subprime lenders have gone belly up or been bought in just the last several months.
Big names like New Century Financial, which was delisted by the New York Stock Exchange last week and Accredited Home Loan, which is now subject to delisting by the Nasdaq for not filing its 10-K on time are just a few of the troubled lenders. Both of those companies are now the objects of lawsuits for allegedly misleading investors as to business and financial results, thereby artificially inflating stock prices.
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Home builders had been growing more confident in the housing market this winter, as cancellations slowed and inventories began to shrink, but new homes, which are, on average, less expensive than existing homes, are dependent on a free-flowing mortgage market. Many of the big public builders cater to first-time home buyers, buyers who might be classified as subprime borrowers due to low credit scores. As the subprime market tightens under pressure from federal regulators and leery lenders, that has a very real impact on the builders.
“There’s no question that it’s going to be harder for a borrower to get a loan today than it was as recently as six months ago,” warns Guy Secala, president of Inside Mortgage Finance Publications. Adjustable rate products aren’t offering a much better rate than fixed today, and no-money-down offers or “teaser rates”, now widely blamed for the subprime implosion, might as well be bad words in the mortgage market today.
“Borrowers are going to find that they’re going to have to put more money down when it comes to buying a home, they’re also going to find that they’re going to have to verify income and assets in a much stronger way,” adds Secala.
The monthly builder confidence data released Monday are based on perception of three areas: current sales, sales expectations, and buyer traffic. All registered lower, although sentiment was mixed regionally, with small increases in the Midwest and West, and larger drops in the South and Northeast. The index is based on an average score of 50, with anything above being positive, anything below negative. The score for March is 36, down from 54 just one year ago.
The NAHB continues to forecast modest improvement in home sales during the balance of 2007, although Seiders admits, “problems in the mortgage market increase the degree of uncertainty surrounding our baseline (i.e. most probable) forecast."
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Sorry Permanent, aber das ist ein selten blöder Artikel...
Die der Immobilienmarkt in den USA hat tatsächlich so viel mit den Aktienmärkten der Schwellenländer zu tun wie Schweinebäuche und Ölaktien, oder der Kaffeepreis mit meinem Gehalt.
Seit Monaten schreibt man hier vom großen "CRASH" und nix ist passiert, eine Korrektur gab es, nicht mehr und nicht weniger,
aber Schwarzmaler haben immer Konjunktur.
Grüße Abenteurer
Und was Rogers meinte, kannst selbst Du vielleicht erkennen, wenn Du mal 5 Minuten nachdenkst. Und wenn nicht, dann mal eine kleine Hilfe:
Die USA stellt - außer dem grünen Klopapapier - nicht mehr viel her, was die Welt wirklich braucht. Konsumiert aber wie ein Wahnsinniger. Brechen nun wirklich die Häuserpreise um 50 % ein, kommt es für den jetzt schon vollkommen überschuldeten US - Bürger zum Super GAU - er kann nicht mehr konsumieren. Und da die Schwellenländer einen Großteil der Waren liefern die dort konsumiert werden, brechen dort die Aktienkurse ein.
Und beschäftige Dich mal mit Rogers. Das ist kein Sesselfurzer der hinter dem Computer sitzt und auf Zahlen starrt. Der fährt vor Ort und schaut sich die Sache an. Wie früher Buffett.
Und vermutlich hat er bei der Gelegenheit mal einen Tag am Hafen zugebracht und gesehen, das viele Schiffe viele Waren in die USA bringen - und leer wieder wegfahren. Und sich dann gedacht, wenn hier der Konsum einbricht, dürfte das nicht gut für die Länder sein, wo die Schiffe herkommen....
Wertzuwachs
ob gewisse User beim Dax-Stand von 6000 auch den Anstand haben, Ihre Fehleinschätzungen genau so großzügig zuzugeben, wie sie jetzt spöttisch auf die Bären herabschauen.
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USA: Immobilienmarkt bleibt Sorgenkind
Nach dem Einbruch der Neubaubeginne im Januar (-14 % gg. Vm.) rechnen wir zwar für den Februar mit einer leichten Erholung (siehe Tabelle). Eine Entwarnung für den US-Immobilienmarkt kann u. E. aber noch nicht gegeben werden. Die Neubaubeginne liegen aktuell knapp 38 % unter dem Vorjahresstand, ohne dass es klare Anzeichen für eine generelle Trendwende gibt. So dürfte bei den Baugenehmigungen im Februar erneut ein Rückgang zu verzeichnen gewesen sein, während der Saldo der Stimmungsumfrage im Bausektor weiter deutlich unter der Expansionsmarke notiert (siehe unten). Die Pleitewelle bei den US-Immobilienfinanzierern (Sub-Prime) lässt befürchten, dass auch noch andere Bereiche der USWirtschaft in Mitleidenschaft gezogen werden. In Großbritannien sorgt sich die Notenbank ob der stark gestiegenen Inflationsrate um die Preisstabilität. Nach dem Höchststand der Jahresrate beim Harmonisierten Verbraucherpreisindex im Dezember 2006 (3,0 %) hat sich zwar zu Jahresbeginn eine leichte Entspannung eingestellt, die sich im Februar fortgesetzt haben sollte. Mit den von uns prognostizierten 2,6 % läge die Teuerung aber immer noch deutlich über der Zielmarke der Bank of England (2 %). Sollte sich in den nächsten Monaten abzeichnen, dass die Löhne aufgrund der gestiegenen Preise kräftig anziehen – bisher ist dies nicht festzustellen –, dürfte die britische Notenbank noch einmal an der Zinsschraube drehen. Das morgige Protokoll der Notenbanksitzung vom 8. März sollte Aufschluss darüber geben, wie hoch die Neigung der Geldpolitiker zu weiteren Zinserhöhungsschritten ist.
EZB setzt neuen Paritätskurs der slowakischen Krone fest
Der Euro konnte sich bei einem ruhigen Handel zum Wochenbeginn gegenüber dem USDollar im Bereich der Marke von 1,33 USD festsetzen und dürfte in den kommenden Tagen den Widerstand bei 1,3371 USD ins Visier nehmen. Der ungarische Forint und der polnische Zloty verbuchten am Montag zeitweise kräftige Gewinne, nachdem die EZB den Paritätskurs der slowakischen Krone im Rahmen des Wechselkursmechanismus II am späten Freitag auf 35,4424 SKK (zuvor: 38,4450 SKK) neu festgelegt hatte, was einer Anpassung um 8,5 % entspricht. Der untere Interventionspunkt liegt nun bei 30,1260 SKK (zuvor: 32,6868 SKK). Der Euro verlor zur Krone rund 3 % und notierte mit Kursen von weniger als 33 SKK auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit seiner Einführung. Das aktuelle Statement der EZB, dass die Leitzinsen „moderat“ sind, bedeutet für EZB-Ratsmitglied Garganas nicht, dass der Gipfel im Zinszyklus bereits erreicht ist. In den USA enttäuschte der NAHB-Hausmarktindex, der im März auf 36 (von revidiert 39) Punkte fiel. Werte unterhalb von 50 Punkten signalisieren hier eine Kontraktion. Die Bank of Japan hat die Leitzinsen erwartungsgemäß unverändert bei 0,50 % belassen. Die Entscheidung dazu fiel einstimmig aus.
Bund-Future: Leicht angeschlagen
Für heute rechnen wir beim Bund-Future mit Notierungen im Bereich der Marke von 116.
Bitte, die USA sind und bleiben die stärkste Wirtschaftsnation und werden es auch bleiben, ob das uns nun passt oder nicht, die Kohle ist da, dort wird konsumiert. Auch wenn, und dass will ich gar nicht abstreiten, das Konsumverhalten der Amerikaner unter einem Einbruch der Häuserpreise leidet, so bekommt er doch im gleichen Atemzug mehr Geld weil die Wirtschaft brummt, die Arbeitslosenzahlen gering sind und die Zinsen nach wie vor historisch tief.
Noch zu Deiner Aussage:
„Und da die Schwellenländer einen Großteil der Waren liefern die dort konsumiert werden, brechen dort die Aktienkurse ein.“
Zwischen den Aktienmärkten und der Wirtschaft besteht keine direkte Verbindung, will sagen, auch in einer Rezession können Aktienpreise steigen und auch in einer wirtschaftlichen Boomzeit fallen......Du siehst also, Deine Aussage hinkt da etwas....
Nix für ungut, die Heuschrecke redet Unsinn.
Grüße Abenteurer
PS: Lieber Leute, ich weiß natürlich dass das hier der Bärenthread ist und ich mit meinem Optimismus fehl am Platze bin, aber gönnt mir doch die Freude, Euch so aller paar Monate mal wieder darauf hinzuweisen, das die hier anfänglich gemachten Aussagen sich einfach nicht bewahrheitet haben. Da schrieb man vor einem Jahr von der Katastrophe die durch die Immobilienblase auf die Aktienmärkte zukommen würde und was ist passiert? Nix, nein das Gegenteil. Der Dax hat gleich noch 1000 Punkte zugelegt, der Dow war auf einem neuen Allzeithoch und auch der Rest der Welt konnte vom weiteren Verlauf der Hausse profitieren.....
Hab neulich mal ne Reportage über den Typ gesehen; der läßt sogar seine Tochter (ca. 4 Jahre) von Privatlehrern in chinesisch unterrichten.
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Jim Rogers ist sicher kein Dummkopf und muß im Gegensatz zu den Herren Bernanke und Greespan keine Rücksicht auf politische Empfindungen nehmen. Den Chinesischunterricht der Tochter (siehe Posting 147 von obgicou kann ich bestätigen). Die Welt wird nicht unter gehen und die USA bestimmt nicht aber eine Delle werden wir sehen.
Solltest du Zeit haben so lies dir die ersten Posting einmal durch. Hier kommt meine Erwartung zur Krise ganz klar als nicht "PERMANENT" sondern als ein temporäres heftiges Ereignis zum Ausdruck.
In einem solche Szeanrio sind die Annahmen von Rogers nicht so abwegig.
Hier einmal eine Wiederholung von Posting :
Obwohl ich kurzfristig recht negativ zu den US Märkten eingestellt bin würde ich nie soweit gehen diese mittel- bis langfristig abzuschreiben.
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U.S. stock futures turn up on strong housing data
Marketwatch - March 20, 2007 9:00 AM ET
MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures nudged higher Tuesday, erasing earlier losses, as a stronger-than-expected rebound in new home starts helped offset investor caution ahead of the start of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates. See full story.
Economic Report: Housing starts bounce back 9% in February
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Groundbreaking on new homes rebounded by 9% in February after a 14% decline in January, but less volatile building permits declined by 2.5%, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. See full story.
Accredited Home Lenders gets $200 million loan commitment
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., continuing its struggle to remain liquid, said Tuesday it's secured a $200 million term-loan financing commitment from Farallon Capital Management, backed by a warrant issue. See full story.
Europe Markets: Europe loses ground as Fed meeting nears; ABN Amro rallies
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European shares lost ground on Tuesday as gains from banks such as ABN Amro were offset by some caution ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision and poorly-received received earnings from Deutsche Post and Friends Provident. See full story.
Retailers look for strong Easter season
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Let the spring shopping begin. See full story.
MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY
Irwin Kellner: Energy costs are making the Fed's job more difficult
HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- It's only the first day of spring, but with gasoline prices already rising for more than a month, you can imagine where they'll be on Memorial Day. See full story.
MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE
Consider these improvements before putting a house up for sale
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The interior walls are neutral. The clutter is a distant memory. A shower door has been replaced and even the design of the bedspread has been factored in. The Green family's Chicago home also got a professional inspection and appraisal to limit any surprises down the road, said Dan Green. Now it is ready for sale. See full story.
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Ich glaube Du wirst mir zustimmen, dass es zwischen dem Immobilienmarkt und dem Aktienmarkt keinen direkten Zusammenhang gibt. Einzig über den Faktor Geld sind diese Märkte verbunden. Will sagen, dass wenn die Anleger anfangen Milliarden aus Immobilienfonds rauszuziehen dieses Geld natürlich einer neuen Anlage bedarf. Welcher Markt wäre da interessanter als der Aktienmarkt. Und auch da wirst Du mir sicher zustimmen, dass Aktien im historischen Vergleich (KGV) immer noch sehr günstig sind. Die Zahl 7000 beim Dax ist nicht sehr aussagekräftig, denn die Unternehmen die im Dax gelistet sind, sind heute real viel mehr Wert, als das letzte mal, bei einem Dax-Stand von 7000.
Sorry muss jetzt mal weiter arbeiten, die gehen mir gerade hier auf den Keks, später mehr
Grüße Abenteurer