Vipshop Q1 Shows Triple-Digit Growth
Here are analyst Philip Wan and team:
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Flash sale apparel e-commerce Vipshop (VIPS) has top-notch warehouse and logistics management and of course investors want to know more about that. Vipshop is building more warehouses and may start to buy delivery companies, according to Morgan Stanley:
Vipshop has received positive feedback from major suppliers for the colocation initiative; helping to reduce warehouse costs and save reverse logistics costs for its suppliers. Vipshop has secured more land for self-built warehouses at favorable land costs offered by local government. In addition, currently ~50% of Vipshop’s orders are fulfilled in-house (i.e., VIPS and its invested affliates) and this percentage is expected to reach 70% by end 2015. As order volume ramps up and order density becomes higher, Vipshop may seek to take controlling stakes in these delivery companies in which it currently has minority interests. The company remained cautious about cross-border eCommerce, believing there are policy-level uncertainties among the regulators. In terms of M&A activities, the company is considering bolt-on acquisitions in mobile commerce verticals such as the mother & baby category. In 2015, Vipshop will continue to focus on its core discount flash sales business market, since its current market share is still at low- to mid-single-digit level. The company currently covers 80% of the existing apparel companies in China and will seek to increase SKUs/sales per brand. Vipshop is confident in its competitive position in its core discount flash sales and doesn’t think increasing flash sales focus from bigger competitors will be a large threat in view pf the highly flexible operational/warehousing system required for apparel flash sales....blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/01/07/china-internet-qihoo-jd-vipshop-ctrip-yy-morgan-stanley-takeaways/?
VIPS’s PE ratio is below the Retail (Catalog & Mail Order) industry average and signals that investors are not willing to pay a premium for this stock.
http://www.markets.co/...ocus-vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr-nysevips/6004/
was dieser Unsinn von angeblichem Merger soll,der durch nichts begründet ist ausser durch Dieselflyers Zockerei,weiss auch nur er!
Jedenfalls ist nirgendwo anders, ausser vielleicht bei wallstreet-online ,die Rede davon
Link s#106
VIPS has a PEG Ratio of less than 0.70, well below its Chinese eCommerce counterparts BABA and DANG.
The low PEG Ratio is a product of a five-year growth rate forecast of 106.79%.
I estimate the five-year growth rate to be 81.51% based on VIPS increasing its market share from 4% to 10% and profit margin from 2-3% to 15% in five years.
An 81.51% growth rate results in a PEG Ratio of less than 0.90, still well below its competitors.
.....I used 2014, 2015 and 2019 EPS figures to estimate a reasonable EPS growth trend that fit within these parameters for 2016-2018 and 2020. Note that with the expected 73% increase in earnings for 2015 the P/E Ratio and PEG Ratio improve substantially. The "Forward" PEG Ratio based on a five-year growth of 97.18% from 2015 to 2020 is only 0.43.
These expectations point to a PEG Ratio that most investors can only dream of. Essentially what these numbers suggest is by investing in VIPS at $21.70, in 2019 you will have a company with an $11.34 EPS. A 10 P/E Ratio would lead to a $113.40 stock price with a price of over $200 being quite achievable. The issue is can VIPS actually meet these lofty expectations? The PEG Ratio being so low would imply that the market currently doesn't believe that it can and on the surface it makes sense. If growth is "slowing" to only 73% for 2015, an outstanding achievement by any measure, how will VIPS actually pick up the pace to more than double EPS in every year from 2016-2018 with a growth rate over 80% in 2019?
If VIPS has 625 million fully diluted ADS by 2019, an $11.34 EPS would lead to $7.1 billion in net income. That's almost as much as the $7.5 billion in annual income that BABA is forecasted to make in 2015. The chart below from 2013 shows the expected growth rate of Chinese eCommerce to 2020. The estimate of 3,834.7 billion yuan in 2015 to the estimate of 10,345.9 billion yuan in 2020 implies an annual average growth rate of 22%.----
Analysts expect the five-year growth rate on BABA to be 31.45% but that may be assisted by the company's plans to expand globally. A 22% growth rate on BABA implies a net income of $16.6 billion in 2019 on its existing Chinese and international operations. A 45% profit margin means revenue would be $37 billion annually. It seems extremely unlikely that VIPS will approach these type of numbers.....
If VIPS can capture 10% market share, I estimate 2019 revenues to be $24.7 billion. 2014 revenue is estimated to be $3.65 billion. If that were to grow at 22% annually for the next five years that would lead to $9.9 billion in revenue while maintaining a 4% market share. Increasing market share to 10% implies a 2.5x multiple on revenue for $24.7 billion. A 15% margin leads to $3.7 billion in revenue, or a $5.91 EPS for 2019, about half of the EPS implied by the five-year growth rate.
An expected growth from $0.30 EPS in 2014 to $5.91 EPS in 2019 leads to a five-year growth rate of 81.51% instead of 106.79%. While not quite meeting the lofty analyst expectations set out in the analyst expectations listed on Yahoo Finance, the 81.51% growth rate still results in a very cheap PEG ratio of 0.89 for 2014. If investors believe my two major assumptions that VIPS can grow its share of the Chinese eCommerce market to 10% from 4% and can improve margins from 2-3% to 15% in the next five years, then VIPS represents a great long-term investment for above average growth. A $5.91 EPS would imply a $60 to $120 stock price in five years using a P/E Ratio of 10 to 20.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ggressive-growth-rate-expectations
The company has been under the radar of many Analysts and Brokerage Firms. Analysts have commented on the company price target and the ratings. Vipshop Holdings Ltd – ADR (NYSE:VIPS) remains a strong buy in the latest set of rankings. The counter has received an average rating of 1.36 by 11 analysts. Research Analysts at Zacks has the counter a rating of 3, which implies that the firms recommendation is Neutral on the company...
http://wallstreetpulse.org/...gs-ltd-adr-short-interest-falls/311683/
Konsolidierung bei 25?
http://stafforddaily.com/...ure-on-vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr-2/327681/
The stock accounts for 9.36% of the firm’s total portfolio, up from 7.45% of the fund’s 3Q14 portfolio.,...
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Vipshop Holdings will beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: Both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 9 cents per share. Hence, the difference is 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: Vipshop Holdings’ Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) when combined with a 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/164223/...earnings-surprise-estimates
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2921026-vipshop-q4-fy2014-results
komplett hier:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...udited-fourth-quarter-210100075.html
5:01 Vipshop misses by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus (VIPS) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.12 per share, $0.02 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.14; revenues rose 108.9% year/year to $1.36 bln vs the $1.23 bln consensus. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/inplay-briefing-com-055139997.html#vips
ich wär da vorsichtig After Hours +0,23% http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/vips/after-hours
Vipshop Holdings Limited’s (VIPS) fourth-quarter earnings per American Depositary Shares (ADS) including share based compensation expense, of 4 cents came in line with the year-ago results as higher sales were offset by rising operating expenses. Earnings, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 9 cents.
However, net sales of the China-based online discount retailer soared 108.9% from the year-ago period to $1.36 billion backed by 114.2% surge in the number of active customers and 99.6% increase in total orders. Improved brand recognition, Vipshop's continued efforts in optimizing and diversifying brand and product selection in e-Commerce drove active customers as well as total orders growth.
Management attributed the higher-than-expected sales to its ongoing effort to upgrade the mobile shopping experience.Sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.23 billion by 10.6%.
Gross profit increased 112.2% to $338.2 million from $159.4 million in the prior-year quarter mainly due to lower cost of sales and growth of Vipshop’s marketplace business. Gross margin inflated 40 basis points (bps) to 24.9%.
Despite 21.1% higher operating expense, adjusted income from operations (excluding share-based compensation) rose 141.5% to $79.6 million mainly due to higher revenues. Operating margin inflated 80 bps to 5.9% from the year-ago period.
Full-Year Results
In 2014, earnings per ADS came in at 23 cents, compared with $1.00 reported a year ago. Results missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 26 cents by 11.5%.
Net sales surged 122.4% to $3.8 billion from 2013. Sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.6 billion by 5.6%.
First-Quarter 2015 Outlook
For the first quarter of 2015, Vipshop expects sales between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion, up 78% to 85% from the year-ago level.Vipshop currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/164548/...-earnings-beats-on-revenues
...At just 30 times this year's expected earnings, Vipshop trades at a very similar multiple to Alibaba, yet is growing much faster. Therefore, I am sticking with my November 2014 analysis that Vipshop is the premier e-commerce investment opportunity in China, far better than Alibaba. So far, my analysis is working out even better than I expected: Vipshop's stock is up 10% whereas Alibaba has lost 20% of its valuation....