Tesla Model S 22-Jun-2012 die CHANCE
wer nach einem Grund für den Kursanstieg sucht:
"Auslöser für den starken Kursanstieg war die Mitteilung, dass Tesla im vierten Quartal des abgelaufenen Geschäftsjahres 6.900 Model S Limousinen verkaufte. Im Gesamtjahr lieferte der Elektroautohersteller damit 22.450 Fahrzeuge aus, knapp 1.000 mehr als von Konzernchef Elon Musk anvisiert."
http://www.deraktionaer.de/aktie/...esst-um-16-prozent-hoch-26610.htm
http://www.mein-elektroauto.com/2014/01/...ral-motors-verkauft/12251/
Von Mike Ramsey
Die elektrischen Premium-Limousinen des US-Autobauers Tesla Motors kommen bei den Kunden besser an als gedacht. Im vierten Quartal 2013 habe Tesla 6..900 Fahrzeuge des Modells S ausgeliefert, das sind 20 Prozent mehr als vom Autobauer erwartet, sagte Tesla-Vertriebschef Jerome Guillen auf der Automesse in Detroit. Das fünftürige Coupe der oberen Mittelklasse wird von Fachjournalisten wegen des leistungsstarken Motors und der für Elektroautos hohen Reichweite gelobt.
Die Tesla-Aktie gewann am Dienstag dank der guten Nachrichten deutlich: Die Aktie schloss mit 15,7 Prozent im Plus bei 161,25 US-Dollar. Damit machte sie weiteren Boden gut. Im September 2013 hatte die Aktie ihr Rekordhoch bei 194,50 Dollar gesehen. Enttäuschende Absatzzahlen im dritten Quartal hatten dann aber seit September für einen deutlichen Kursrückgang gesorgt. Der Absatz im dritten Quartal hatte nur 5.500 Fahrzeuge erreicht.
Tesla aus dem kalifornischen Palo Alto baut und entwirft Elektrofahrzeuge und elektrische Antriebskomponenten. Für das laufende Jahr hat sich Tesla weiteres Wachstum auf die Fahnen geschrieben. Guillen stellte in Aussicht, dass Tesla 2014 weltweit die Anzahl der Service- und Verkaufsfilialen verdoppeln werde. Ab Frühjahr wird die Premium-Limousine Modell S auch in China verkauft. Das eröffne weitere neue Verkaufsmärkte, so Guillen. Auch in Europa liefere Tesla nun mehr Autos aus. Tesla schraubt die Fahrzeuge für den europäischen Markt im niederländischen Tilburg zusammen, bleibt dabei aber auf Teile aus Kalifornien angewiesen.
Zu den Ergebnissen im Schlussquartal hieß es von Tesla, diese dürften so wie im dritten Quartal ausfallen, als das Unternehmen einen Nettoverlust von 38 Millionen Dollar geschrieben hatte.
Zu den Fortschritten beim neuen Tesla-Modell X hielt sich das Unternehmen bedeckt. Der Autbauer sieht sich aber auf dem Weg, das Fahrzeug bis Ende des Jahres zur Auslieferung zu bringen. Das Modell X soll die Eigenschaften eines SUV mit den Vorteilen eines Kleinbusses kombinieren. Das Auto soll Platz für sieben Passagiere bieten und mit einem oder zwei Elektromotoren, die jeweils direkt an der angetrieben Achse positioniert sind, angeboten werden. Derzeit ist aber das Modell S das einzige Auto, das Tesla am Start hat.
Der deutsche Autobauer Daimler hatte erst jüngst seine Partnerschaft mit Tesla gefestigt. Die Stuttgarter sind mit einem kleinen Anteil an Tesla beteiligt und wollen im kommenden Jahr eine elektrische Version der B-Klasse auf den Markt bringen, die einen Motor und Batterien von Tesla nutzt. Auch die Batterien der zweiten Generation des smart fortwo electric drive stammen von dem US-Unternehmen.
Kontakt zum Autor: unternehmen.de@dowjones.com
DJG/DJN/cbr/jhe
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 15, 2014 02:38 ET (07:38 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Quelle: Dow Jones 15.01.2014 08:38:00
Bitte beachten Sie folgende wichtige Hinweise
Was meinst, wo dann der Kurs steht ?
Übertreibungen im Kurs sind das eine,
anzunehmen, dass eine Tesla innerhalb der nächsten 5 Jahre auch nur ansatzweise REAL den Wert von BMW entsprechen finde ich persönlich "amüsant".
Wir sehen mal weiter, wenn der X und der C draußen sind und Tesla ihre Kapazitäten in jeglichen Bereichen ausgebau haben (müssen). Dann wird es "real" und "ansatzweise" zu möglichen Vergleichen kommen können, bis dahin beibt Tesla ein Nischenanbieter OHNE Alleinstellungsmerkmale aber mit "gewissen Vorzügen".
Aber
1) ein X oder C könnte ich mir real für mich vorstellen
2) Put-Optionen könnten mir auf dem Weg dorthin helfen
Von daher ... übertreibt ruhig:
200 EURO bis Jahresende ... und das ist nur der Anfang.
Nächstes Jahr wertvollstes Unternehmen der Welt. Bestimmt ...
I promise you ... yes we can!
Quelle: http://seekingalpha.com/article/...mail_rt_article_readmore&app=1
Why We May Have Underestimated Tesla And Its 20-30% Potential Upside, What's Next For The Market
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Market Overview
The market got whacked a bit to start the week, but it bounced back nicely on Tuesday on the back of solid retail data and decent enough earnings from JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC). On the economic data front, we got news about Retail Sales this morning as well export/import prices. Sales were supposed to come in flat to maybe up 0.1%. Some murmurs were that they would be negative, but they beat all expectations coming in at 0.2%. Export/Import prices both showed slight rises as well. That data is definitely a welcome site and shows at least some better than expected sales during the Holidays.
Today was also the start of earnings season in our view with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reporting earnings. JPM beat analyst expectations with a 1.30 EPS (1.24 estimates) and $24.1B revenue ($23.9B estimates). Yet, the company was hurt by weakness in their investment bank and mortgage unit. WFC saw a 6% drop in revenue but also beat expectations with 1.00 EPS (0.98) estimate). JPM has been mired by scandals/legal action, but the company was able to see another drop in delinquency. Yet, there is still general weakness in mortgage banking (applications down 50%+ year/year). WFC saw similar results, but they were "optimistic" about 2014.
Company News/Deeper Look
On the company news side, we will be focusing on Tesla Motors (TSLA) today. Since there is a lot to cover, we will also make this our daily "deeper look" as well.
We have been bearish on Tesla since the stock zoomed into triple digits. We started out 2013 being bullish on the company, but we have thought is too rich in valuation at these levels now. In recent articles, we have laid out our bear argument. We first laid out our bear argument on October 25, 2013. In that article, we stressed that international success was necessary to support the company's higher valuations, but we worried about their promise. In our latest article from December, we pushed that argument further.
Main Catalyst
On Tuesday, Tesla stock rallied strongly on several announcements from the company:
- Tesla delivered 6900 vehicles in Q4
- The company anticipates to see Q4 revenue at 20% higher than previous guidance
- Tesla is providing a software update "over the air" to 29,000 vehicles to improve safety even further
These three announcements allowed the stock to soar from in the red to over 10% in gains. What we want to do today is put these numbers into context of the bigger picture and within in our main arguments about being bearish on Tesla. We actually found these numbers to be quite incredible, and they may have been the first signs that are some of our original articles were well…wrong.
First off, we want to reiterate some points we have brought up in previous articles. In our last article, we noted that Tesla would be hard pressed to sell more than 15K-20K of their Model S per year:
YTD through October, the largest volume high luxury car sold in the USA was the BMW 7-Series with just over 9000 units sold. That puts the car on pace for 12K for the year. Even if Tesla can become the top luxury car company in the USA, they would be pressed to sell more than 15-20K of their current lineup and more than 30-40K with some of the new cars they have in the pipeline. Thus, the company needs international sales to reach the 90K level we are looking at for them.
In the latest results, the company delivered about 6900 Model S sedans, which would put them on pace for nearly 27,500 Model S sold per year. The most sold large luxury vehicle as of December 2013 was the Mercedes-Benz S-Class at 13K. In the mid-size luxury, the largest seller was the Lexus ES with 72K in sales. Now, the price point for Model S makes it tough for it to ever reach these levels, and the backlog of demand is strong for Model S now. The company is delivering essentially everything they can make. At some point, these levels come down, but we can say its safe to say 20K-25K Model S per year for the next few years is definitely possible. That is an amazing amount of high-end luxury cars to be selling.
The company also has the Model X to debut in the back half of 2014. The price point for this vehicle is expected to be around the same as the Model S, so we are looking at a crossover in the 60K-80K range. Once again, we cannot expect the company to hit the levels of mid-level luxury SUVs that are in the 40K - 60K range, so we have to look at the Mercedes GL at 30K in volumes. That level is around what we believe we can expect for the Model X, potentially as much as 35K in the first couple years. In the best-case scenario, we are looking at 2015 being a year where the company can sell 60K cars domestically.
The Model E or Gen III is expected to release in 2016-2017, and this is the one that matters. When we look at this car in the $40K - $50K range, we can see it selling in the range of 50K-60K per year consistently domestically even up to 80K. Yet, it will be some time before we see it hit the streets. We will say 2017 at the earliest for our model to stay somewhat conservative and given the delays we saw with the Model S.
In reality, we are looking at a 2017 situation where we could see around 120K in domestic sales, and we definitely underestimated in some of our previous models. Let's remove that from the equation for a moment and international growth. With 120K in domestic sales in 2017, we are looking at potential revenue of $7.2B. The company has a goal to have margins like Porsche, which would put them at a 15% operating margin and net margins in the 8-10% range. If the company could execute in this way, that would put net income at 720M in the best case domestically, putting EPS at 5.90 and P/E at 26.4.
We are not high on the international side of things still with charging station issues:
Tesla wants to meet its Supercharger charging station target in Germany by the end of 2014. It's trying to build in a few years what traditional car companies have spent decades doing. This gets to the heart of the short thesis on the automaker's stock. Tesla bears say quarter after quarter that the company is burning through cash too quickly to build the infrastructure it wants, and make the improvements to supply chain that it needs. Bank of America analyst John Lovallo addressed that directly on the company's Q2 conference call, saying: "If we think about cash flow for a minute... free cash flow was a use of about $79 million in the quarter, and I think if you make the adjustments you guys were talking about... $11 million for the DOE payment, a $67 million increase in receivables that may not occur. That looks like the use of about a million dollars. Now, you have cap ex ramping up in the back half of the year so how are you thinking about free cash flow generation through the remainder of the year into 2014?" Tesla CFO Deepak Ahuja could only reply that Tesla "want[s] to be very careful about burning cash...We want to stay as close as we can to a free cash flow position... but that's not something we necessarily want to guide to. We're going to manage it... and spend the cap ex where we need to to ensure we're growing at the right pace."
There are a lot of question marks here, so we will use two scenarios. On the low-end, we will assume the company can grow sales internationally to 25K by 2018 and on the high-end put it at 75K. Just so you know, 200K in sales would put the company at the global footprint of Porsche's expected 2014 sales to put things in comparison. Overall, the fact of the matter is that demand is strong domestically for Tesla, and the product is starting to become a household name. With the growing attraction of electric vehicles, tax credits, lack of gas payments, and other benefits, we have to admit we are warming up to the name a bit more.
There is still a ton of speculation, but let's get a bit deeper into pricing the stock.
Pricing/Valuation
Revenue -
In our model, we assume an average price point of $60K (Model S and Model X will be higher, but the addition of the Model E will make up around 25% of sales and have a price point in the $40K - $50K) with operating margin at 15% (this is a best-case margin). In this scenario of 195K models, we can see revenue at $11.7B in 2018. In our worst-case scenario of 125K models, we can see revenue at $7.5B (along the lines of our previous estimates).
Tax Rate -
We assume no taxes in 2014-2015 with up to 20% in 2018.
Margins -
The company has a goal to get to Porsche-level margins, which is around 25% gross margin, 15% operating margin, and 8-10% net margin. That compares to a company like BMW (BMW), who has gross margins at 20%, operating margins at 11%, and net margins at 6-7%. The company hitting these levels would definitely put them at the top of the class. In our best-case model, we will use 15% for operating and 12% in our low-end model.
Other -
CapEx will grow especially with the dedication to building out in Europe and Asia. We see at least $550M in CapEx by 2018 and depreciation growing to around $380M. We use a cap rate of 3%, which is very low discount rate, meaning that the company is a high-growth name with a lot of future income pricing in and needs to be discounted less.
In this new model (195K volume), we come up with a price target of $195. Now, this is the absolute best case of everything happening as we can see it now (outside of Europe). The question mark still remains that as well as execution. In our low-end model, we come up with a price tag of $110 in our model. In our mid-level we are looking at $155 price tag. The difference is obviously that we underestimated sales in the best-case scenario, and that is our main change.
Conclusion
Speculators that believe in this company have an argument for upside at least of 20-30% from these levels, and that can be even higher when one considers Gen III potential. What it comes down for Tesla is execution. The latest results were pretty outstanding and show the company doing well with supply chain, manufacturing, and delivery - something we questioned earlier. This is a good sign for the company. Buyers need to understand, though, that the company has to be perfect to see more upside. If the Model X is not delivered in the 2H of this year, the stock will drop significantly. If Model E does not start to show up in auto shows next year, downside will happen. If international sales do not start to ramp up significantly this year, downside will occur. If the company does all of those very well, though, there is still some upside. We will admit that we have underestimated the company and have been incorrect in our earlier assumptions.
We are still sticking with a conservative approach and using a $155 price tag, but we can understand the argument for higher prices. We are not speculative investors; therefore, we will not recommend shares to our own clients. Those that buy stocks for the future…its very understandable to us now to get behind this name. And yes, we were wrong in some of our earlier assessments. We did not fully appreciate the demand as we are seeing it now.
Charting The Markets
The S&P 500 (SPY) broke out over 1800 but has failed at the 1850 level. We also broke key 1820 support yesterday. Now, we are sitting on key 1800 support where the 50-day MA as well as mental support sits at for the market.
(click to enlarge)
The Dow Jones (DIA) has resistance at 16500 right now with support sitting at 16200 along with 16000. The key support is 16000 since its mental and the 50-day MA. If those lines break, we don't see much support until 15700.
(click to enlarge)
Nasdaq (QQQ) has strong resistance above it and has failed at the 88 area. There is support at 85 and 86 area. The index is very tight right now and should either breakout to the upside over 88 or could retest 85 then potentially move lower.
(click to enlarge)
Russell 2000 (IWM) is in a tight consolidation pattern with 116 resistance and support just below it. If that area fails, we see good support at the 110-111 area. If it can break 116, we do not see much resistance until 118 area.
(click to enlarge)
Wednesday's Outlook
The market got its much needed comeback on Tuesday, and it looks like it could continue if things go well with earnings and data Wednesday. At the same time, we are in a very choppy market right now. As the market moves up and down, it will be very headline-oriented, and we do not expect long trends to develop for a large part of the year at least not the first half. Wednesday, the market will be watching closely for the MBA Mortgage Index, PPI, Empire Manufacturing, and Fed Beige Book reports. The MBA Index is interesting because of recent results showing weak demand for mortgages that could show some housing concerns. Additionally, we will get a key Empire Manufacturing report that is supposed to improve from 1.0 to 3.5 for December. Finally, the Fed Beige Book will be parsed for signs of what it means next for the Reserve. All that comes along with earnings from Bank of America (BAC) Wednesday morning. We are expecting a good report from them as we laid out in our weekly outlook article.
Natürlich sind da auch Übertreibungen dabei, sonst hätten wir keine derartigen Kursausschläge.
Optionen
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Wertpapier: Tesla |
Vamp schauen wohin es geht
Aber da sieht man mal wieder daß Charttechnik nur greift, wenn sonst keine pos. oder neg. Nachrichten, Naturkatastrophen, polit. Entscheidungen usw. kommen.
Aber das macht ja die Börse so interessant, nicht wahr?:-)
Ganz weit aus dem Fenster lehnen und sagen 2018 werden mehr als 100.000 TESLA verkauft, wenn der TESLA C in China ein schlägt und die Produktion nach kommt.
In Sachen Produktion kann ich nur sagen, das wohl bald einige Fabriken TESLAs bauen werden, die zur Zeit andere Markenautos bauen!
Also in nur 6 Jahren wird TESLA bei 1000$ stehen und die die es durch halten, werden Millionäre sein....
NUR MEINE MEINUNG!!!!!
Die aufgrund der Signallampe eine 60 prozentige eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit hatte.
Es gab für mich bei diesem Trade die Chance fast 6 x mehr zu gewinnen als zu verlieren
Also tradete ich dieses Setup. Bei gleicher Konstellation tue ich das wieder egal ob Long oder auf der short Seite.
ist das jetzt zu vermessen ?
Die meisten haben wahrscheinlich geshortet aufgrund der Chartanalyse, was ja völlig korrekt war.
Man muß, soll sich ja an seinen Tradingplan halten, nur dann kam eben die Nachricht daß ein paar Autos mehr verkauft worden sind als angenommen.
Das Ergebnis sieht man ja.
Aber die Banken freut es: sie verdienen Millionen am Spread und vor allem am Zeitwertverlust von Optionsscheinen...
Der Artikel ist zwar vom letzten Jahr, aber doch interessant für Investierte die wissen sollten wer hinter Tesla Motors Inc. eigentlich steckt..:
http://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/...-elon-musk-a-916336.html
Viele Grüße
Averex
empfehlenswert
http://www.buecher.de/shop/futures/...oducts/detail/prod_id/07732842/
Bei 1000€ hätte Tesla ein MK im Vergleich zu Daimler und BMW von ... ach lassen wir das.
Nach wie vor Glückwunsch den Investierten ... ich bin wohl einfach nur zu ängstlich, realistisch ... Kasino, Crowdfunding ... für viele ist das erfolgreich ...
Damals habe ich einiges an Kapital mit Optionsscheinen verbrannt...
Aber wenn sich die Elektroautos so weiter entwickeln wie Tesla innerhalb der letzten 5 Jahre, bin ich davon überzeugt, dass die Verbrennermodelle ganz schnell zu einer Belastung für die alteingesessenen Autofirmen wird...
Mal sehen, was passieren wird :-)