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Und wer ist überhaupt INGE???
So long
patzi
by Keith C. Applegate
After the bell on Monday, Oracle [ORCL: Nasdaq] will report its fourth-quarter numbers. After all of Wall Street waited for a pre-announcement from the world's Number-two seller of software, a rumored large contract, signed just under the wire, may just have sealed its quarter.
Listed below is our estimation of Oracle's Q4. This announcement should be the firstv indication of performance for June-quarter ending, enterprise software companies. And so Oracle's results may lead to revisions of investment opinions of other enterprise software companies.
Look for Oracle's revenues to grow in the low single digits year-over-year. We are expecting Services to keep the company afloat this quarter, as we expect licensing revenues to fall year-over-year. Oracle's costs should expand on both an absolute and percentage of total revenue basis, because the company is battling with tough year-over-year comparisons, and it is feeling the effect of orders cancelled or postponed in the closing days of the quarter.
Operating margin is bound to disappoint; the company will have a tough time beating the 41% operating margin produced in the year-ago quarter. Depending this report, we may have to revise our outlook on the company's ability to reach its goal of yearly 40% operating margin.
We are in-line with Thomson Financial/First Call average earnings estimates of $0.14 per share. But we are also on the lookout for Oracle's share count; this may push the earnings result under our estimate.
Considering the weakness in Oracle's shares, other signs of weakness lingering on Wall Street, and the fact many other companies in the technology space are warning on quarterly profits, we continue to rate Oracle's shares at Hold. One question that will be on everyone's minds is forward guidance, especially for the full year.
Market Timing From the Technical Desk
On June 14, we said: "The bias is leaning negative for Oracle [ORCL: Nasdaq] in the short-term. It broke minor support at $15.50 on June 14, and looks to fall to support at $14 during the next one to two weeks. It is trading at $15.06."
Oracle reached a low of $14.66 on June 15. We maintain our downside target of $14. A push above $15.50 is a short-term positive. It is trading at $14.99.