+ + Wir haben ÖL Peak + +
Consumption. Preliminary data indicates that global consumption rose by roughly 500,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) during the first half of 2008 compared with year-earlier levels, as a 1.3-million bbl/d rise in consumption outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was partially countered by an 800,000 bbl/d drop in U.S. consumption compared with year-earlier levels. The decline in U.S. consumption in the first half of 2008, reflecting slower economic growth and the impact of high prices, was the largest half-year consumption decline in volume terms in the last 26 years, when, in the first half of 1982, consumption dropped by nearly 800,000 bbl/d. Total world oil consumption is expected to grow by a little over 1 million bbl/d during the second half of 2008 and by almost 1 million bbl/d in 2009 compared with year-earlier levels. The projection for 2009 consumption is about 460,000 bbl/d lower than last month's assessment, reflecting lower expectations for consumption in the United States and other OECD countries. Over the next year and a half, lower OECD consumption is expected to be more than offset by continued non-OECD consumption growth, led by China, the Middle East, Latin America, and India (World Oil Consumption). Further consumption declines in the OECD nations, coupled with the move to reduce subsidies in large parts of the developing world, should limit future world consumption growth.
Non-OPEC Supply. EIA is revising this month's outlook for non-OPEC supply growth in 2008 compared with last month's, largely because of project delays in Asia, lower output growth now expected in the Former Soviet Union, lower growth in Canada caused by the upward revision of 2007 data, and reduced production in Azerbaijan due to the closure of the BTC pipeline. If new projects come online as now anticipated, total non-OPEC supply is projected to rise by about 510,000 bbl/d in the second half of 2008 and by 850,000 bbl/d in 2009 compared with year-earlier levels. This compares with a 330,000 bbl/d decline in non-OPEC supply recorded during the first half of 2008. Non-OPEC supply growth through 2009 is expected to be led by Brazil, the United States, and Azerbaijan (Non-OPEC Oil Production Growth). Given recent history, possible additional delays in key projects as well as accelerating production declines in some older fields cannot be ruled out. For example, Russian oil output was down by almost 1 percent in the first half of the year, raising the chances for the first annual decline in output since 1998. As a result, net non-OPEC production gains could be less than the current forecast, leading to both higher demand for OPEC oil and higher prices than currently projected.
OPEC Supply. OPEC crude oil production is expected to rise to 32.9 million bbl/d during the third quarter of 2008, up from 32.3 million bbl/d in the second quarter. The forecast assumes that Saudi Arabia will maintain its July 9.7 million bbl/d production level through the third quarter, representing a 400,000 bbl/d rise from second quarter levels. OPEC crude oil production is projected to drop to about 32.4 million bbl/d in the fourth quarter of 2008, and to decline to 31.6 million bbl/d in 2009. Lower crude production combined with planned increases in OPEC total liquids production capacity suggests OPEC surplus crude production capacity could increase from 1.2 million bbl/d currently to about 3.6 million bbl/d by the end of next year (OPEC Surplus Oil Production Capacity). Although an increase in the supply cushion could ease upward price pressure, it does not appear large enough to trigger a sharp price decline. Moreover, possible delays in adding supply capacity, proactive OPEC decisions to cut output, or expectations that supply growth in the post-2009 period will have a difficult time keeping pace with demand, could minimize and shorten any market weakness.
Inventories. OECD commercial inventories during the second quarter of 2008 increased by only 490,000 bbl/d, well below the average build of 910,000 bbl/d during this time of the year. At the end of the second quarter, estimated commercial inventories stood at 2.58 billion barrels, 17 million barrels below the 5-year average and equal to about 53 days of forward consumption (Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Stocks). OECD commercial inventories are projected to rise by 340,000 bbl/d in the third quarter compared with the average seasonal build of 450,000 bbl/d, which would leave OECD commercial inventories about 30 million barrels below the 5-year average at the end of the third quarter."
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Lohnt sich wieder Erdölförderung im Elsass?
Die Ölpumpe mitten im Maisfeld fördert bis zu 1000 Barrel Erdöl pro Woche aus dem Boden im nordelsässischen Scheibenhard. "Das ist für einen Ölmulti völlig uninteressant, aber für uns ist es rentabel", sagt der Chef des Unternehmens Géopétrol, Bertrand Launois. Der Unternehmer aus Paris, der lange Jahre im Erdöl-Zuliefergeschäft tätig war, hat die Konzession 1994 von dem Erdölkonzern Total aufgekauft. Damals kostete ein Barrel Öl (159 Liter) etwa 10 Dollar, ein hübscher Unterschied zu den heutigen mehr als 100 Dollar. "Hätte Total damals die Preisentwicklung vorausgeahnt, hätte die Firma sicherlich nicht verkauft", sagt Launois, der mit 25 Angestellten in Frankreich etwa 40 kleine Vorkommen ausbeutet.
Die kleine Pumpe mit ihrem nickenden Kopf gehört zu den vier Konzessionen im Elsass, die in Scheibenhard, am Schelmenberg nicht weit von Oberlauterbach und in Eschau südlich von Straßburg liegen. "Auszubeuten sind sie vielleicht noch zehn Jahre, vielleicht auch länger, wenn der Ölpreis so hoch bleibt oder noch weiter steigt", sagt Launois. Die Qualität des elsässischen Erdöls sei gut, "fast so gut wie Brent", die in Europa gängige Sorte mit niedrigem Schwefelgehalt. Launois liefert die 6000 Tonnen der elsässischen Jahresproduktion an die Raffinerie in Reichstett. Die Menge ist wirklich ein Tropfen auf dem heißen Stein und macht nicht mal ein Prozent der Produktion Frankreichs von etwa einer Million Tonnen aus, die hauptsächlich im Becken von Paris und im Südwesten gewonnen wird.
Rentables Geschäft
Ein zweites Unternehmen, Oelweg, unter der Leitung des Ingenieurs Philippe Labat fördert Öl bei Oberlauterbach. Labat hat nur einen einzigen Angestellten. Er holt pro Tag nur etwa 15 bis 16 Barrel Öl aus 600 Meter Tiefe. Doch ist das Geschäft für ihn rentabel, "auch wenn der Staat etwa ein Drittel an Steuern kassiert".
In historischen Zeiten gab es sogar einen "elsässischen Ölboom" mit dem Ort Merkwiller-Pechelbronn (von Pechbrunnen) als Zentrum. Dort wurden zwischen 1735 und den 1960-er Jahren rund drei Millionen Tonnen Rohöl aus dem Boden gewonnen. Doch die Quellen sind längst versiegt. Im Jahre 1985 schloss der Mineralölkonzern Total nach drei Jahren die Bohranlage Marienbronn, wo eine neue Fördertechnik mit Wasserdampf erprobt worden war. Doch zu keiner Zeit konnte man dort kostendeckend arbeiten.
Jeder kann am kleinen Ölboom teilhaben
Im großen Stil wird auch in Zukunft im Elsass nichts zu holen sein. Rechnet man die elsässische Produktion seit dem 18. Jahrhundert bis heute zusammen, dann kommt dabei gerade mal eine Zwei-Wochen- Produktion des Ölstaates Kuwait heraus.
Nach dem Gesetz kann jeder unternehmerisch gesinnte Bürger am neuen kleinen Ölboom teilhaben. Ein Privatmann darf auf seinem Gelände Erdöl suchen und verkaufen. Diesen Weg hat Launois eingeschlagen und hat eine neue Konzession für die Region um Soufflenheim erworben. Er blickt auch mit Interesse über die Grenze. "Ich würde gern mit deutschen Unternehmen zusammenarbeiten. Es gibt dort sehr gute Möglichkeiten", sagt Launois. Wo die seiner Meinung nach vielversprechenden Regionen liegen, will er aus Wettbewerbsgründen nicht sagen.
Petra Klingbeil, dpa"
In May 1899, a pair of oil prospectors wielding picks and shovels dug into a bank of the Kern River where some gooey liquid had seeped to the surface. About 45 feet down, they hit oil, and when the local newspaper printed the news, it set off an oil rush that swept up hundreds of fortune seekers, oil companies, a big railroad and even some enterprising school districts that bought up tracts in hope of turning a profit. Today, on an arid square of land the size of Manhattan, thousands upon thousands of black derricks crowd the landscape, bobbing gently up and down and sipping crude oil from the field discovered a century ago. The wells aren't gushers these days, but they still squeeze out a few barrels a day here, a few more there. Chevron has injected steam into the reservoirs, coaxing the sedimentary rock into giving up millions of barrels of heavy oil that was too thick and sticky to retrieve using the technology of decades past. But the Kern River field, like most U.S. oil fields, is in decline. After surging to new highs during the 1980s, Kern River production has dropped to just over 80,000 barrels a day, more than 40 percent below its peak. Enhanced recovery techniques will continue to prolong its profitable life, but its days are numbered. Kern River is the story of America's oil supply. Four decades ago, the United States was the world's biggest oil producer. But U.S. crude oil output peaked in 1970, at 9.6 million barrels a day, which was enough to cover the bulk of the country's needs back then. Now, U.S. crude production stands at 5.1 million barrels a day. Together with liquids derived from natural gas and other inputs, domestic production covers only 42 percent of the country's needs. The balance comes from imports. Ever since President Richard Nixon called for "Project Independence" in a 1973 address to the nation, U.S. energy independence has been little more than a throwaway line in political speeches. ...............
link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/.../AR2008072802905.html
Hamburg/Washington - Der Rückgang der US-Nachfrage sei vor allem auf das langsamere Wachstum der amerikanischen Wirtschaft und die explodierenden Treibstoffpreise zurückzuführen, teilte die US-Energiebehörde EIA am Dienstag in ihrem Monatsbericht mit. Der Bedarf ist demnach im Schnitt um 800.000 Barrel pro Tag im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum zurückgegangen.
Gleichzeitig sei aber der Treibstoffverbrauch in Schwellenländern um 1,3 Millionen Barrel pro Tag gestiegen. Dadurch habe der weltweite Ölverbrauch im ersten Halbjahr um 500.000 Fässer pro Tag zugenommen, hieß es weiter.
Wie hoch die Preise für Rohöl in den vergangenen Monaten gestiegen sind, verdeutlicht ein Vergleich in dem Bericht der Behörde: Demnach nahmen die Opec-Staaten in den ersten sieben Monaten 2008 beinahe soviel ein wie im gesamten Vorjahr. Bis Ende Juli brachten die Netto-Ölausfuhren den Mitgliedstaaten der Organisation erdölexportierender Staaten (Opec) 642 Milliarden Dollar ein, teilte das US-Energieministerium in Washington mit. 2007 seien es lediglich insgesamt 671 Milliarden Dollar gewesen.
Voraussagen des Ministeriums zufolge könnten die Opec-Staaten in diesem Jahr insgesamt 1,17 Billionen Dollar einnehmen. 2009 könnte diese Zahl dann sogar auf 1,23 Billionen Dollar steigen.
Das Ministerium hob seine Prognose für die Rohölförderung der Opec an. Sie dürfte derzeit mit 32,42 Millionen Barrel um 100.000 Barrel je Tag höher liegen als noch im Juli prognostiziert. Für das dritte Quartal erwartet die US-Regierung eine Förderung von 32,88 Millionen Barrel pro Tag, für das vierte Quartal 32,40 Millionen Barrel täglich.
Die Ölproduzenten außerhalb der Opec dürften dem US-Ministerium zufolge jedoch etwas weniger fördern als bisher erwartet. Die Prognose wurde von 49,38 Millionen Barrel pro Tag auf 49,15 Millionen Barrel reduziert. Im kommenden Jahr erwarten die USA dann wieder eine Zunahme der Förderung.
Nach Angaben der Internationalen Energieagentur (IEA) wird das Weltrohölangebot in den Jahren 2009 und 2010 steigen. In den Jahren 2011 und 2012 könnten jedoch spärliche Investitionen einen Rückgang des Angebots zur Folge haben, sagte der Leiter der IEA-Statistikabteilung, Jean-Yves Garnier. "In den beiden kommenden Jahren werden wir mehr überschüssige Produktionskapazitäten haben, aber hinter der weiteren Entwicklung steht ein Fragezeichen." Bei fehlenden Investitionen vor Ort könne es 2011 und 2012 zu "massiven Problemen" kommen.
Der Ölpreis sank heute leicht. Beobachter deuteten das auch als Reaktion auf das vermutliche Ende der Kampfhandlungen in Georgien. Das Fass US-Leichtöl verbilligte sich zeitweilig um mehr als einen Dollar auf weniger als 113 Dollar.
kaz/Reuters/dpa-AFX"
Das heißt nichts anders als: Für 50 bis 60 Dollar oder mehr ist bei einem Preis von 113 Dollar zuletzt die Spekulation zuständig.
ist....
Irgendwie argumentierst und attackierst du mit Argumenten
für einen Put, aber denunzierst rogers, weil
er angeblich welche haben soll!
Merkwürdig.....
Kurz für dich.....
CALL = Wette auf steigende Preise
PUT = Wette auf fallende Preise!
Roger geht mittel- bis langfristig von steigenden Preisen
aus, also wird nicht sicher keine Puts im Korb haben,
sondern eher Calls
Du hingegen spekulierst auf sinkende Preise = Put
Was sich hier so rumtreibt... :-)
Optionen
| Boardmail an "Woodstore" |
Wertpapier: WTI Rohöl NYMEX Rolling |
By Dinakar Sethuraman
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Liquefied natural gas output may rise 14 percent next year as ventures in countries like Qatar and Indonesia, accounting for more than a quarter of the world's supplies, begin production, said a London-based consultant.
Output of LNG, or gas chilled to liquid form for transport by tankers, may climb about 25 million metric tons to about 208 million tons next year, Andy Flower, an industry consultant and a former executive at BP Plc's LNG business, said in an interview in Singapore. The increase may suffice to meet annual demand from South Korea, the world's second-biggest LNG buyer.
Global LNG trade rose 7.3 percent to 165.3 million tons last year, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008. Demand for the cleaner-burning fuel will increase 10 percent a year through 2015, more than five times as fast as crude oil, Citigroup Inc. analysts led by James Neale said in an April report.
``Consumption of LNG this year may reach about 183 million tons from 173 million last year,'' Flower said in Singapore on Aug. 15. ``New projects are starting up in Qatar, Indonesia, Yemen, Australia and
Russia.'' Flower's output estimates for last year are higher than BP Plc's. Projects from Australia to Nigeria may have produced about 88 million tons in the first six months of 2008, he said.
Still, output was lower than expected because of diversion of gas for domestic use in some countries and inadequate pipeline infrastructure and equipment failures in others. Egypt produced about 5.2 million tons in the first six months of 2008, compared with a potential 6.1 million tons, to meet energy demand at home, Flower said. Nigeria supplied about 8 million tons, or about 72 percent of its first-half capacity, he said.
Tight Winter Supplies
LNG supplies this winter may be ``very tight,'' Flower said, which could boost prices. Prices may rise to as much as $25 per million Btu in the Northern Hemisphere winter, said John Harris, a director at Cambridge Energy Research Associates Inc.
``Asian prices are influenced by U.K. gas future prices,'' Flower said, because Japan and South Korea compete for LNG with Europe. Prices of gas in Continental Europe are linked to oil prices and they trail behind crude oil by three to six months, he said, declining to give a forecast on LNG prices.
U.K. gas futures for winter are trading at about $17.3 per million Btu, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. A British thermal unit is equivalent to the heat generated by a lighted match.
LNG is natural gas that has been reduced to one-six- hundredth of its original volume at minus 161 degrees Celsius (minus 259 Fahrenheit) for transportation by ship to destinations not connected by pipeline. On arrival, it is turned back into gas for distribution to power plants, factories and households."
Busting the myths about cheap and unlimited oil being broadcast by Rush Limbaugh, Jerome Corsi and other ignoramuses.
By Peter Dizikes
Salon.com
Aug. 18, 2008
Petroleum may be in short supply these days, but the United States does have a related surplus: myths of oil abundance.
You don't have to drill deep into our political discourse to find suspect stories about oil, with politicians peddling the flagrantly false notion that China is producing oil off the coast of Florida, while right-wing activist Jerome Corsi claims oil is not a fossil fuel but "a natural product the Earth generates constantly."
Such declarations serve a political purpose: to make oil drilling seem like an easy solution to our current energy crisis, to marginalize warnings that we are running short on oil, and to stymie efforts at conservation or developing alternatives to fossil fuels.
Along with these high-profile claims, an array of books, Internet forums and YouTube videos constitute a subterranean layer of storytelling, creating a narrative of perpetually cheap domestic oil being denied to us by a dictatorial government. These stories may be working: Offshore oil drilling is now favored by 63 percent of the electorate. But there's another side to them: They reveal our inability to accept that the United States is not always a land of plenty.
"In America, we're a frontier nation, and so the idea is that just beyond the next ridge is the perfect farmland, a giant oil field or an abundant supply of timber," says Robert Kaufmann, director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University. "People don't like the idea that the frontier is now closed and we've got to live within limits."
These narratives also require spectacularly limited scientific literacy about oil: what it is, how we find it, how much remains. Let's take a brief tour of some claims worthy of tabloid headlines.
"Oil is not a fossil fuel!"
What is oil? A wealth of evidence shows it is a fossil fuel derived from ancient marine microorganisms. Essentially, oil comes from plankton fossils that have been covered by sediment at the bottom of bodies of water. Occasionally in such settings -- when there is no oxygen around and the temperature stays between about 120 and 210 degrees for up to a couple of million years -- these fossils become heated into oil.
The upshot: Oil is a finite resource that takes a long time to create, but we use it quickly. So wouldn't it be great if oil were an inexhaustible, inorganic substance? A few researchers, notably Soviet scientists in the 1950s, have tried unsuccessfully to make this case. Corsi, known for his attacks on John Kerry, and now making the media rounds with a loopy book on Barack Obama, also promotes this view. In 2005, Corsi coauthored a book, "Black Gold Stranglehold," asserting that oil is inorganic and abundant, and he continues pumping out related columns at the conservative current-events site WorldNetDaily.
Corsi prefers to cite a lone American academic supporter of the idea: Thomas Gold, the late Cornell astrophysicist and habitual scientific maverick who proposed that inorganic methane shoots up from the earth's mantle into the crust and turns into oil. (Most methane is, like oil, an organic fossil fuel made of hydrogen and carbon.)
Gold never fully detailed how this supposedly happens. And there are other problems with the idea. To name only two: Inorganic methane has been found only in tiny quantities, and it has a specific chemical signature never found around oil deposits. "No one would doubt that inorganic hydrocarbons do occur," says Michael Lewan, a petroleum geochemist with the U.S. Geological Survey. "But the oil we are currently producing is of organic origin."
The evidence for oil's organic origins is robust and diverse. Briefly, it includes biomarkers, or chemical compounds found in both ancient organisms and petroleum formed at the same time; geochemical evidence allowing scientists to match types of oil with their source rocks; lab experiments mimicking oil formation; and literally a world of geological data helping us find oil today.
With that in mind, consider Corsi's level of argumentation in this November 2005 WorldNetDaily article, as he discusses Thunder Horse, a drilling area that BP operates in the Gulf of Mexico:
Moreover, Thunder Horse also defies "fossil-fuel" oil theorists who like to argue that oil comes from dead dinosaurs and decaying ancient forests. With the water depth of nearly 2 miles, Thunder Horse is truly an ultra-deep project. From the floor of the Gulf, BP has drilled down another 6 miles to hit oil. What evidence is there that any ancient dinosaur ever walked on land that is now 8 miles down? Moreover, geologists identify the deposits in which BP has found oil in the Thunder Horse Field as Miocene, a period that occurred in the Cenozoic Era, some 24,000 years ago. Dinosaurs by then were long gone, having disappeared at the end of the Mesozoic Era, some 65 million years ago.
Corsi makes multiple scientific mistakes here. Scientists never argue that oil comes from "dead dinosaurs and decaying ancient forests." Again, oil derives from fossilized marine microorganisms. The Miocene was not a point in time "24,000 years ago." It lasted from about 5 million years ago to 23 million years ago. In geological language, it's an epoch, not a period, and according to BP, the rocks at Thunder Horse appear to be 5 to 11 million years old. Moreover, oil tends to seep upward over time, so we typically extract it from rocks that are younger than those in which it was formed anyway. Finally, while dinosaur references are irrelevant to oil, basic geological concepts -- erosion, plate tectonics -- explain how any creature might walk on land that later becomes deeply submerged. The National Research Council suggests students should know these concepts by the eighth grade.
Lewan summarizes matters: "I feel that the evidence right now for the organic theory, for our major economic occurrences [of oil], is overwhelming. And the evidence for inorganic sources right now to explain our current discoveries is unsubstantiated."
"China is drilling for oil in America's backyard!"
Perhaps you've heard some GOP politicians recently claim that China is drilling for oil in Cuban waters near Florida. Give credit where it's due: Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho, better known for another kind of prospecting in a Minneapolis airport bathroom, was promoting this notion back in 2006. That April, Craig complained on the Senate floor that China could potentially drill in Cuban waters, then released a statement claiming that soon "it may be possible to see Chinese oil rigs from the shores of the Florida Keys."
Actually, in early 2005, Cuba had announced a deal with the Chinese firm Sinopec, apparently for onshore production, but not offshore drilling. But across the country, people like California congressional candidate Tom McClintock see the oil rigs now. "The vast oil fields off the coast of Florida that American law prevents Americans from developing are now being drained by the Chinese government drilling in Cuban waters," he wrote this month in an Op-Ed.
Such claims are bad spin and bad science. They also ignore the geological realities of oil: Exploration precedes production. That means surveying the terrain and drilling test wells -- generally the slowest kind of drilling, since companies like to study the kind of rock they're finding, the types of microorganisms present, temperature and pressure data, and record everything in geophysical well logs. "When you're drilling an exploratory well, it's a geology experiment," says Philip Budzik of the government's Energy Information Administration. The EIA estimates it would take at least five years to begin production in U.S. waters in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where drilling is now banned. The process often takes longer. Suffice it to say, China is not drilling for oil off the coast of Florida.
How much oil is there, anyway? The EIA says U.S. waters in the area contain 3.82 billion barrels, half our annual national consumption of 7.6 billion barrels. But it would take decades to extract. If the offshore drilling ban were removed in 2012, the EIA states, it "would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030."
"Alaska has more oil than the Middle East!"
Have you heard that there's enough oil in Alaska to supply the United States for the next two centuries, more than in the entire Middle East, but a government plot is keeping it underground? If so, attribute it to Lindsey Williams, a kind of oil evangelist, who's been making these claims since the 1970s.
Back then, Williams coauthored a book, "The Energy Non Crisis," asserting that vast political machinations were preventing oil companies from exploiting Alaska's riches. Today he's on YouTube, saying Alaska has "possibly the largest oil pool on the face of the earth," which remains untapped "by order of the government." New drilling, Williams suggests, will lower gas prices within 12 months. If you like implausible oil stories, this is for you. One of Williams' YouTube clips has been viewed nearly 500,000 times, and a generic version of the story holds that Alaska has more oil than the Arabian peninsula.
Now consider reality on Alaska's North Slope, the oil area that includes the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. It can take two or three years to drill a single exploratory well there, because such drilling is only possible for a few months at a time in the winter, when the permafrost is frozen hard enough to support equipment. Meanwhile, infrastructure can be transported there only by ship, in two or three summer months. To drill permanent wells, oil companies lay down a thick gravel "pad," acres in size, which allows for year-round drilling, by keeping equipment and housing safe from summer thaws and preventing them from melting the permafrost. Pipeline corrosion problems have been extensive. The EIA forecasts that if Congress opened up ANWR, it would take eight to 12 years to even start production.
Does this sound like a place that will produce more oil than the Middle East? Alaska is about the same size as Iran, four-fifths as big as Saudi Arabia, and huge portions of the state consist of mountain ranges where drilling is impossible. The EIA estimates that about 10.4 billion barrels of oil can be recovered from ANWR, just over a year of American consumption. Saudi Arabia alone has about 260 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. The verdict here: Get real.
"North Dakota is the new boomtown!"
Forget Alaska. Lately drilling advocates have been dreaming about a lifetime supply of cheap American oil coming from the Bakken Formation, a layer of rock underneath North Dakota, Montana and southern Canada. In April, Rush Limbaugh cited estimates that "175 billion to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil" are located in the Bakken, meaning it "is expected to be one of the greatest booms in oil discovery since oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938."
The truth is different. Companies are drilling in the Bakken, but an April survey from the USGS reported approximately 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of oil could be extracted using cutting-edge technology, or about six months of U.S. consumption. Moreover, says Richard Pollastro, a geologist who led the USGS survey, "that's what is technically recoverable, not necessarily what is economically recoverable." Essentially, oil prices would have to increase for companies to extract it all.
The Bakken Formation reminds us that oil is largely found in one place: inside rocks. "People view oil fields as these underground swimming pools of oil, which they are not," says Kaufmann, of the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies. "It's more like an oil-soaked brick." The Bakken Formation consists of a layer of sandstone in between two layers of shale, and the so-called matrix porosity of the rocks -- how easily oil comes out -- fluctuates greatly. "The geologic conditions vary from township to township, county to county," says Pollastro. "You could drill a partial well and have it bring in a half a million barrels of oil, and you can drill one half a mile away and have it bring in 50 barrels of oil." This adds uncertainty to exploration and extraction costs.
That's the catch: Geologists believe there are more than 4.3 billion barrels in the region. But obtaining them would require new drilling technologies, which would demand greater investment. The Bakken hardly heralds a return to cheap oil. Indeed, it suggests America has little cheap oil left. Some discoveries touted today would have produced shrugs decades ago.
"There's a reality out there people don't want to recognize," concludes Kaufmann. "Clearly technology has improved. Oil prices are higher. We deregulated the industry. We've done almost everything. There are a few areas offshore that are closed off. It's not going to make a difference. The sooner people realize that and stop dreaming about energy independence or one huge undiscovered field that's going to solve all our problems, the better off we'll be."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26264945
Wenn ich ein paar Postings hier zurückblicke, so scheinen wohl manche zu glauben:
a) Biomüll ist untergetaucht, weil der Ölpreis korrigiert hat
b) Peak Oil ist widerlegt worden (irgendwer, hartmut oder woody ? schrieb irgendwann, es der hohe Preis Grund für Peak oil WAR; oder das die fallende Nachfrage Peak oil "widerlegen" würde)
;0))
__________________________________________________
Was ist nun zuletzt passiert, was peak oil nun tatsächlich widerlegt. Was ist denn in den letzten Wochen/Monaten passiert, dass PEAK OIL nun unwahrscheinlicher machen würde als noch im April, Mai, Juni oder Oktober 2007 als dieser Thread von mir eröffnet wurde ?
Gab es den letzten Wochen drastisch erhöhte neue Fördermengen an CRUDE (Rohöl), welches den Markt überschwemmt hätte? Ich lese zwar dümmliche Häme von Anilemming (zuviele Medikamente haben seine Birne weichgemacht), unlogische, unschlüssige Pseudoargumente von Hartmut, warum die fallende Nachfrage gegen Peak oil sprechen würden ;0))
und tägliche Ölpreisnotnierungen von solchen, die sich eben mit Öl-Shorts verzockt haben.... Ich finde hier aber von den Blasenschreiern keine Fakten, warum nun PEAK OIL unwahrscheinlicher geworden ist.
Der Preis ist gefallen - und ?
Einige hier, von Antilemming, bis Hartmut, Woody, navi, mini etc demonstrieren ziemliche Defizite in ihrem Verständnis, das sie hier mitbringen.
Ich habe schon öfters hier geschrieben: jeder Bullenmarkt korrigiert UND: die PEAK OIL JAHRE werden GEKENNZEICHNET SEIN von folgendem:
PEAK OIL (= Röhöl Angebots Problem) > Ölpreis muss solange steigen BIS er Wirtschaft und Konsument so weh tut, dass die Nachfrage fallen muss. Die Wirtschaften werden darunter leiden; wir werden viele Jahre chronischer Energie (und Teuerungsprobleme) haben. Erst wenn die Nachfrage sehr deutlich nachlässt (nichts anderes passiert eben), kann auch der Ölpreis deutlich nachlassen. Es wird aber nie wieder billig werden wie 2004 und früher (sprich: 50 und 60 USD wie mini, antilemming, woody und harty hier phantasiert haben, wird es nicht mehr geben). Ab einem bestimmten preis, wird die OPEC weiter reduzieren (weil sie ohnehin praktisch keine Reservekapazität mehr hat und einige Länder bereits post peak sind).
Peak Oil heisst nicht, dass der "Ölpreis nie wieder fallen wird" (wer hier so etwas in diesem Thread von mir findet - der hat gewonnen ;0). Peak Oil heisst, dass
- es niemals mehr ein deutlich höheres Rohölangebot (Crude) geben wird.
- dass die Zeiten des billigen Öls ENGÜLTIG und die Zeiten billiger Energie bis auf weiteres VOR sind.
- und nun vor vielen Jahren, mindest 15, eher 20, vor chronischen Energie/Wirtschaftsproblemen stehen, die wir besser oder schlechter meistern werden.
Sofern der Ölpreis (kurzfristig/mittelfristig) überhaupt als Indiz FÜR oder GEGEN peak oil verwendet werden kann - dann wohl eher für PEAK OIL:
Der Ölpreis stieg über 8 Jahre lang (!), besonders in den letzten Monaten und letzten 3 Jahren - ABER das Rohölangebot STIEG SEIT MAI 2005 nicht mehr. Nein, der Ölmarkt funktioniert eben nicht mehr, wie sich das hartzmut so gerne wünschen würde ("hoher preis bringt höheres Angebot" - nein, der Ölpreis musste solange steigen, die Angebotslücke an CRUDE (Rohöldefizit am Markt) konnte nicht einmal durch die BIOTREIBSTOFF MANIE ausgeglichen werden.
"Ausgleich" konnte erst geschaffen werden, in dem der Ölpreis weiter und weitergestiegen ist - solange eben bis die Nachfrage in den USA so stark eingebrochen ist, wie schon seit "26 jahren" nicht mehr. Da ist zwar noch kein "Beweis" für peak oil, aber ganz sicher KEIN Beweis, nicht einmal ein Indiz oder schlüssiges Argument GEGEN Peak oil. Man muss schon ziemlich naiv, ignorant oder sonst wie defizitär sein, oder über besonders Antilogik verfügen, um damit gegen peak oil argumentieren zu wollen ;0)))
Zusammenfassung: eine Nachlassende Nachfrage als Folge eines "zu hohen Preises" (Übertreibungsphase in einem Bullenmarkt) ist KEIN logisches Argment gegen PEAK OIL, ebenso wenig wie der korrigierende Ölpreis selbst.
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Ein paar andere Punkte zum Ölpreis, die Grund geung wären, um nachzudenken:
- die letzten 20 USD auf 148 USD wurden durch eine Hedgefond herbeigeführt, der sich mit shorts verspekuliert hatte und durch das covern diese Preisspitze verursacht haben soll (ohne diese Fehlspekulation). (148 - 20 = 128 USD)
- der USD hat zuletzt fast 10 % zugelegt (aus Gründen die mit Peak oil nichts zu tun haben; aber: diese 10 % in den letzten Wochen sind REAL aus dem ölpreis herauszurechnen, wenn man die aktuelle Konsolidierung beim Ölpreis nicht überbewerten will. also minus 10 % von 128 USD = 115,2
- die Nachfrage in den USA so stark eingebrochen wie seit 26 Jahren nicht mehr.
UND - WO STEHT der Ölpreis ?
Er ist nachwievor "HOCH". und schädigt nachwievor die Wirtschaften und die Kaufkraft der Kosnumenten. ABER: ein paar OPEC mitglieder fangen bereits an, eine Förderkürzung im September zu fordern.
FAZIT: nichts, gar nichts ist in den letzten Wochen passiert oder hier gepostet worden, was GEGEN PEAK OIL spricht.
Dieser Thread ist ein SPIEGELBILD der Masse: dumm, ignorant und unlogisch in Schlüssen, die gezogen werden (mit ganz wenigen Ausnahmen wie rogers & ölriese).
@ bukubuku gute Postings (2666, 2677) - du hast es auf den punkt gebracht, gratuliere ;0) (siehe BM)
grüsse aus den Bahamas; erwartet euch kein feed back auf euren "shit". Bin noch eine (nette) weile auf urlaub. Wirklich Relevantes kommt ohnehin erst mit dem WEO 2008.
Lediglich 7 - 9 % des vorhandenen Öls wurde bisher verbraucht.
http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=764
Optionen
| Boardmail an "Hartmut1967" |
Wertpapier: WTI Rohöl NYMEX Rolling |
Optionen
| Boardmail an "Woodstore" |
Wertpapier: WTI Rohöl NYMEX Rolling |
ich hätte nichts dagegen....
Optionen
| Boardmail an "minicooper" |
Wertpapier: WTI Rohöl NYMEX Rolling |
Hallo ihr Spezialisten, wenn wir nun die 200 Tage Linie durchbrechen, wo gehts dann hin? In den Trendkanal von 2007? Was denkt ihr, wann ein günstiger Zeitpunkt für den Einstieg in Öl ist. Oder sollte man aufgrund der Wirtschaftsabkühlung die Finger davon lassen, wenn man sich damit nicht auskennt?
langfristige Abwärtstrends eingeleitet. Da gleichzeitig auch die Haltezone von 110 USD (??)unterkreuzt wurde, empfehlen
wir Ihnen im Focus-Trading per heute den Kauf des Öl-Puts (CB70PV). Anleger, die ihre Engagements ausschließlich
am GD200 orientieren, waren seit März 2007 !! auf der Hausse-Seite engagiert und sollten die letzten Calls
mit einem Gewinn von 714% jetzt ebenfalls glattstellen und in Puts wechseln.
Angehängte Grafik:
oel.gif
oel.gif
Unter 110 $ sollte es nochmal kräftig wackeln im Gebälk.
CHINA CAN MAINTAIN OIL OUTPUT AT 4 MLN BBL/DAY BY 2030-SURVEY
BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China has oil reserves to maintain crude oil output around 200 million metric tons per year, or 4 million barrels per day, by 2030, according to an extensive survey of China's oil and gas reserves. The target is only 6% higher than China's output last year at 187 million tons, or 3.8 million barrels per day, suggesting China will have to increase oil imports to meet more robust demand. The survey by the Ministry of Land and Resources during the past four years showed China has geological reserves of 76.5 billion tons, equivalent to 561 billion barrels, of which 21.2 billion tons, or 155 billion barrels, are recoverable, the ministry said in a posting on its Web site. The International Energy Agency has forecast that China's oil demand will average 8 million barrels a day in 2008, and climb 5.7% to 8.4 million barrels a day in 2009. But the survey showed China has rich natural gas reserves, allowing a fourfold increase in annual gas production to 250 billion cubic meters by 2030 from 66.6 billion cubic meters in 2007. China has 35 trillion cubic meters of geological gas reserves, of which 22 trillion cubic meters are recoverable, according to the survey. The survey also included unconventional energy resources such as coalbed methane, oil sand and oil shale. China has 37 trillion cubic meters of geological coalbed methane reserves, of which 11 trillion cubic meters are recoverable. Geological reserves of oil sand are at 6 billion tons, of which 2.3 billion are recoverable. Oil shale reserves, calculated on the basis of the oil to be extracted, are 47.6 billion tons, of which 12 billion tons are recoverable.
SHORTAGE OF OIL PRODUCTS FEARED
The International News Tuesday, August 19, 2008 ISLAMABAD:
The country is feared to face a severe dearth of petroleum products, particularly diesel, which may put a brake on the slow-moving wheel of economy, as oil marketing companies have not enough liquidity to place orders for import of petroleum products, The News has learnt. According to official sources, oil marketing companies have communicated to the government that the country may face a severe shortage of petroleum products as they are running short of capital and are unable to place next orders for the import of POL products, particularly diesel. The government owes Rs90 billion to the oil marketing companies in the shape of Price Differential Claims (PDC). It is liable to pay Rs72 billion for June and July and Rs18 billion for the first 15 days of the ongoing month of August. Market sources, when contacted, feared the collapse of the oil supply chain in the country because of fiscal constraints faced by the oil marketing companies and the shortage of petroleum products would push the government to approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for loans. However, when contacted, Acting Petroleum Secretary GA Sabri said the government would release a substantial amount under the head of Price Differential Claim to the oil marketing companies by Monday. Sabri strongly denied the impression that the government would soon experience a shortage of petroleum products, vowing that he would not allow any disruption in the oil supply chain. When asked if the oil companies had informed the government about the impending crisis, he said such communications were normal and the government would provide ample amount to the companies to ease their fiscal constraints.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/...urrent/txt/table1.txt