Warum fällt ERDGAS so EXTREM ?
Nur so eine Überlegung.
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nur meine meinung
es kann natürlich sein, dass spekulanten den preis deswegen hochtreibn. ich glaub aber nicht, dass deswegen die erdgaspreise nachhaltig auf einem höheren niveau notieren werden...
außerdem kann es ja leicht sein, dass sich, bis das öl embargo in kraft tritt, die situation im iran zu mindest gebessert hat.
der anstieg heute so wie ich es sehe auf 3 gründe zurück zu führen:
-reduktion der gasförderung in den us
-short-squeeze
-und spekulanten die schon lange auf so eine situation gewartet haben und jetzt eingestiegen sind
tragen auch zur Preisstabilisierung bzw. Preissteigerung bei:
LNG Exports May Spur Higher U.S. Natural-Gas Prices, Report Says
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-23/...rices-report-says.html
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Natural Gas Futures Surge on Chesapeake Plans to Cut Production
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas, the worst-performing commodity in 2012, rose the most in two years in New York after Chesapeake Energy Corp., the second-largest U.S. producer, said it will cut production and reduce spending.
Futures climbed 7.8 percent after Chesapeake said it will “immediately curtail” output of 500 million cubic feet a day and lower planned investment in gas fields by 70 percent from 2011 levels to $900 million. Hedge funds and other large speculators last week cut bets that gas would fall as it traded at its lowest levels since 2002, a government report showed.
“We have found a price level where companies are finally going to stop producing,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “With Chesapeake cutting back, traders are wondering who's going to be next.”
Natural gas for February delivery rose 18.2 cents to settle at $2.525 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The percentage increase was biggest since Dec. 10, 2009. The futures are down 16 percent this year.
The price discount, or spread, of the February contract to March futures widened 0.6 cent to 5.5 cents.
April $1.50 puts, or wagers that prices will drop, were the most active options in electronic trading on the Nymex. They fell 0.4 cent to 0.7 cent per million Btu on volume of 3,134 at 3:12 p.m. in New York.
Gross production at Chesapeake wells will be cut by as much as 1 billion cubic feet a day as gas-well completions are deferred wherever possible, the Oklahoma City-based company said in a statement today. The reduction equals about 1.5 percent of U.S. marketed gas output in 2011, Energy Department data show.
Chesapeake Cuts
The company will idle half of its drilling rigs in fields that produce only gas by the second quarter. The fields include the Barnett Shale of Texas, the Marcellus Shale and the Haynesville Shale.
U.S. gas production grew by a record 4.5 billion cubic feet a day in 2011, the department said in a Jan. 10 report, while demand growth lagged behind at 920 million.
The Energy Department cut its estimate for natural gas reserves in the Marcellus shale formation by 66 percent, citing improved data on drilling and production.
About 141 trillion cubic feet of gas can be recovered from the Marcellus shale using current technology, down from the previous estimate of 410 trillion, the department said today in its Annual Energy Outlook. About 482 trillion cubic feet can be produced from shale basins across the U.S., down 42 percent from 827 trillion in last year's outlook.
GSCI Index
Gas is the biggest decliner this year on the Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot Index of raw materials partly because of increased supply from hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a process of extracting natural gas and oil from shale rock by injecting water and chemicals.
U.S. inventories totaled 3.29 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Jan. 13, according to the Energy Department. Supplies were 21 percent above the five-year average for the week, compared with 17 percent the prior week, making it the widest surplus since June 2009.
The money Chesapeake cut in dry gas drilling may be redirected to areas rich in oil and gas liquids, which still yield associated natural gas, Pax Saunders, an analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston, said in a note to clients today.
Net Short
Hedge funds and other large speculators last week pared their net-short positions to the smallest since July, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission report on outstanding positions in futures and options showed after markets closed on Jan. 20.
“The funds are still holding large net short positions, but they are starting to buy them back,” Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut, said in a note to clients. “Once prices do find a bottom, this change in open interest will combine with oversold pressures to give us a gargantuan rally. We just don't know from where.”
The speculators held net-short positions in Nymex gas futures and options of 86,604 lots as of Jan. 17, compared with 103,711 a week earlier, the CFTC's Commitments of Traders report showed.
Bets turned to net-long for four types of U.S. gas, switching to 15,938 from net shorts of 10,344 the previous week.
That measure of gas positions comprises Nymex Henry Hub natural gas futures, Nymex Henry Hub Swaps, Nymex Henry Hub Penultimate Swaps and ICE Henry Hub Swaps. Henry Hub, in Erath, Louisiana, is the delivery point for Nymex futures, a benchmark price for the fuel.
Weather Outlook
The weather may be mostly seasonal or warmer than average across the continental U.S. through Feb. 6, according to MDA EarthSat Weather in Gaithersburg, Maryland. About 51 percent of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.
The low temperature in New York on Jan. 31 may be 35 degrees Fahrenheit (2 Celsius), 8 above normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. The low in Chicago may be 22 degrees, 3 above normal.
Gas futures volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was a record 725,369 as of 2:57 p.m. compared with the three-month average of 310,000. Volume was 439,228 on Jan. 20. Open interest was 1.16 million contracts, compared with the three-month average of 1 million. The exchange has a one-business-day delay in reporting open interest and full volume data.
http://news.businessweek.com/...6B6S972901-3A56FS6Q5S84QN0SJP5LEP0C6R
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2,674 2,679
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Mag sein. Ich glaube eher dass die Förderer dem "fröhlichen" Treiben der Hedgis nicht mehr länger zuschauen wollten. So ganz nach dem Motto: "Das Spiel können auch zwei spielen" !
Ich hoffe nur dass es da einige Nachahmer gibt. Denn Chesapeake alleine kann da nachhaltig nicht viel ausrichten. Aber wenn Exon & Co. mitmachen, ja dann...............
Den Shorties brennt's noch lange nicht am A.......... Höchstens denen die erst kürzlich darauf gezockt haben. Aber da gibts "Shorties" die sind schon seit Jahren dabei, und haben fett verdient. Der Gaspreis müsste um rund 300% steigen damit deren Gewinne sich markant minimieren. So gesehen können sich die Shorties noch lange zurücklehnen und diese mikrige Gegenbewegung belächeln.
Charttechnisch haben wir noch keine Bodenbildung, lediglich der kurzfristige, sehr steile Abwärtstrend wurde gebrochen.
Wenn wir es schaffen über 2,70 zum Wochenende zu schließen, wirds höchstwahrscheinlich noch weiter bergauf gehen, ich bleibe vorerst dabei.
chart_year_erdgasnymex.png (verkleinert auf 81%)
