Meinungen zu Falkland Oil and Gas ???

hallo, ich habe gerade mit Interresse in diesem Thread gelesen und kann mich des Eindrucks nicht erwehren das in Bezug auf die Chancen dieser Gesellschaft (-en) bei uns in Germany noch grosse Unkenntniss herrschen muss.Ich bin selber in FOGL+DESIRE+ Falkland Holdings investiert und freue mich seit ein paar Wochen schon über die sehr positiven Nachrichten von den Falklands.Desire z.Bsp. lässt gerade in diesen Tagen eine Rig aus der Nordsee zu ihrem Bohrgebiet schleppen und wird nach erreichen des Bohrgebietes im Februar mit den Arbeiten beginnen.Ich denke das hat bald weitere sehr positive Impulse auf die  shares der  gesamten hier tätigen Firmen  incl. oder auch vielleicht gerade auf F. Holdings.Infos unter:http://www.desireplc.co.uk/ + http://www.fihplc.com/index.php?section=0 + http://www.desireplc.co.uk/.  

 

läuft der Kurs in London nach oben. Mit dem heutigen Schlußkurs
von 140 BPC haben wir die Barriere von 138 BPC hinter uns gelassen.
Ich könnte mir vorstellen das hier bald News anstehen, evtl. das lang
ersehnte von BHP organisiert Rig.  

http://sain.sunsite.utk.edu/cgi-bin/textonly/0124/...8373823.stm?ad=1  

26.11.2009!!!!!!!!!!!Besser geht es nicht.Guckst du hier:http://www.fihplc.com/support/upload/261109_Placing_release.pdf        und hier    http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/...=105504&l=175721&.Es sieht so aus das wir dieses Jahr noch vor Sylvester ein Feuerwerk sehen und die Sektkorken knallen lassen können.;-)))))))))))))))))))))  

wer sich intensiver mit diesem Wert beschäftigen möchte dem kann ich nur die im August 2004 veröffentlichte 140 zigseitige Studie von S.Lorenz (share//infos Research GmbH) empfehlen.Hier werden so  ausführlich wie ich es sonst sehr selten gesehen habe, die Zukunfts Aussichten der Malvinen als Erdöl/Gas-fördernder Bereich erklärt und erläuter.Erstaunliche Treffersicherheit bei den angegebenen Entwicklungs Zeiträumen muss dem Verfasser bescheinigt werden.Die Grössenordnung dieses hochinterresantenes Erdöl/Gas Projektes werden wir bald wissen.;-))  

163,50 BPC + 6,51% mit 2,7 Mio. Stück Umsatz.

Hier könnte bald das Allzeithoch bei 185 BPC fallen,
scheinen gute Nachrichten auf dem Weg zu sein.
Evtl. bekommen wir ja doch noch ein Deep-Water-Rig.

Chart-Analyse

http://charting.webs.com/falklands%20oil%20and%20gas.JPG  

...Richtung Norden 177,25 BPC + 5,04% !!!!!  

1 Jahr + 147,83%.Was will der Mensch denn mehr????Kennt jemand bessere?Ich bin vollauf zufrieden,;-D  

die Aufmerksamkeit steigt : http://online.wsj.com/article/...672711190144.html?mod=googlenews_wsj  

http://www.advfn.com/...4316&article=41532817&symbol=L%5EFOGL

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited
                           ("FOGL" or "the Company")

                        Rig Contract Agreement Secured

Further to our press release dated 26 November 2009 FOGL is pleased to announce
that it has reached an agreement with Desire Petroleum plc to contract the Ocean
Guardian rig to drill the first ever exploration well in the East Falklands
Basin on the Toroa prospect, which it expects will be within the first half of
2010.

Tim Bushell, Chief Executive of FOGL, said:

"We are delighted to have secured the Ocean Guardian for the drilling of our
first ever exploration well, which will be a significant milestone for the
Company."  

http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/display_news/...-in-h1-2010/860.html  

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8519807.stm

Falkland Islands: Oil boom or no oil boom?  

By Robert Plummer
Business reporter, BBC News  


Anticipation of a big oil find off the coast of the Falkland Islands is once again reaching fever pitch.


The Ocean Guardian rig will explore reserves in the Falklands
A drilling rig from the Scottish Highlands, the Ocean Guardian, is being towed by tug to the North Falkland Basin, widely considered the most promising of the four areas licensed for exploration.

In the UK, investment tipsters are lining up to recommend buying shares in the companies that own those licences.

Strangely enough, though, those shares are not enjoying any notable bounce at present - probably because of the reaction from Buenos Aires.

The Argentine government has imposed new restrictions on all ships heading to the Falklands, in a move that revives memories of the war it fought with Britain over the islands in 1982.

Argentina is clearly furious at the prospect of being excluded from an oil boom in a territory over which it still claims sovereignty.

After trying to raid the central bank's reserves to service its debts, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's cash-strapped government is desperate for funding.

For their part, some of the key oil explorers are keeping tight-lipped as they wait to see what the diplomatic fallout will be.

Desire Petroleum, one of the firms that has contracted the Ocean Guardian rig, told the BBC it would be making no comment until the start of drilling next week and referred all inquiries to the British Foreign Office.

Reliable sources?

But at this stage, any Falklands oil boom remains strictly hypothetical. After all, no-one has yet proved that any commercially viable oil field exists there.

Not that you would know that from the oil explorers themselves. Desire Petroleum's website talks of "excellent oil source rock" and "significant gas potential" in the six licence areas it holds.



The only previous drilling off the Falklands was in 1998
It estimates a "potential" - that word again - 3.5 billion barrels of oil and nine trillion cubic feet of natural gas down there, ready to be extracted.

Desire is also co-operating with another firm, Rockhopper Exploration, which has "farmed in" to two of Desire's licences while operating four more of its own, all in the North Falkland Basin. Both firms plan to drill a number of wells using the Ocean Guardian.

Rockhopper reckons that 4.3 billion barrels of oil lie in its licence areas, two of which were previously held by Royal Dutch Shell.

Four other firms are in the game, including Falkland Oil and Gas (FOG), which has brought in mining giant BHP Billiton as a partner.

FOG believes its top four prospects alone could yield eight billion barrels, with tens of billions more lurking elsewhere in its licence areas.

It, too, plans to use the Ocean Guardian rig to drill what will be the first well in the East Falklands Basin, also known as the Falklands Plateau.

Second time round

You might be thinking that this is beginning to amount to an awful lot of oil - or potential oil, at least.

You might also be wondering why Shell decided to pull out of such a lucrative earner.

Well, the answer goes back to the only previous attempt to drill for oil in the area, back in 1998.

Six test wells were drilled in the North Falkland Basin, and five of them showed encouraging results. However, it was not clear whether there was enough oil there to make further investment worthwhile and Shell decided to call a halt.





However, there is one big difference between then and now. In 1998, oil prices fell to little more than $10 a barrel. Nowadays, they are above $75 a barrel.

That means there is plenty of oil still in the ground worldwide that would have been too expensive to extract in 1998, but is perfectly profitable now.

That is certainly the case for much of the oil that might be found in the Falklands' territorial waters, since many of the potential locations are deep under the sea and hard to reach.

In the North Falkland Basin, the waters are relatively shallow, giving a drilling depth of 1,500ft (500m) or less.

But in the eastern and southern basins, the drilling depths are likely to be up to 9,000ft.

This is not as deep as Brazil's big discovery of recent years, the Tupi oil field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro.

But Brazil's state oil firm Petrobras has hard-won experience of deep-sea oil drilling over decades, whereas Falkland Oil and Gas was not formed until 2004.

Sovereignty stand-off

An oil bonanza would clearly make a big difference to the lives of the 3,000-odd inhabitants of the Falklands, whose livelihood currently depends on fishing licences, cruise ship visits and sheep-farming.

But the Argentine government is also acutely aware of what a difference those oil revenues could make to its finances.



Brazil is using semi-submersible platforms to pursue deep-water oil
Argentina has $13bn of international debt that matures this year, and a hole in its budget of between $2bn and $7bn.

However, it was Argentina that unilaterally decided in 2007 to scrap an agreement with the UK to share the proceeds of any oil discoveries in Falklands waters.

The decision was taken by the government of Nestor Kirchner, the predecessor and husband of the current president.

Under the Kirchners, Argentina has increased pressure on the UK to reopen talks on the sovereignty of the islands.

It's a far cry from the 1990s, when the foreign minister of the time, the late Guido di Tella, launched a charm offensive aimed at winning over the hearts and minds of the islanders.

This included sending annual Christmas cards to every household, accompanied by presents such as video cassettes featuring children's character Pingu and books including the adventures of Winnie the Pooh.

Now, however, the gloves are off again - and diplomatic strife plus the lure of financial gain could prove to be a potent combination  

nach langem Warten eine Bohrplattform bekommen haben und dass man mit ersten Bohrergebnissen Anfang März rechnet?

.....  

seit Montag wird gebohrt

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jFY8aWFVE…

http://www.desirepetroleumshares.co.uk/video-news/139-falkla…

http://german.cri.cn/1565/2010/02/26/1s132686.htm

;-))))))))))  

 

http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/Investors/results

Toroa spud date late May. 35 day well.

Note the bullet on slide 7

"Due to its location, the Toroa prospect is best drilled by an anchored
rig, such as the Ocean Guardian. Whereas, Loligo and the other
deepwater prospects (>1000m water depth) are best suited to
being drilled by a dynamically positioned (DP) drillship or semisubmersible"

This actually has hidden implications. FOGLs acreage is in an extremely hostile environment. It has been compared with the West of Shetlands, currently the harshest environment for any deep water production development in the world but the two DW producing fields (Schiehallion and Foinaven) are "only" in ~400m WD. From experience the FOGL WD combined with the environent will have serious development implications and challenges.  

Unter dem folgenden Link

http://energy.rpsgroup.com/Public/bhpbillitonEIS/

ist eine Ausarbeitung von BHP abrufbar.
Es ist zwar ein großer Bericht, aber absolut interessant.
Anhang D ist der Umfrage-Bericht für Toroa. Verschiedene Konzeptforschung,
die im Gebiet vorgenommen wurden scheinen, das wahrscheinlich Vorhandensein
des Öls anzuzeigen.


Auch an diesen Auszügen abzulesen:


Preliminary examination of diagnostic PAHs (methyl-phenanthrenes) suggested that these inputs came from crude (rather than refined) oil and, given the absence of drilling activity in the survey area, this was thought likely to have come from natural oil seeps.


Total hydrocarbon concentrations (THC) were consistent and fairly high, when compared with the ‘background’ concentrations typically found in the North Sea (UKOOA, 2001) given the remote nature of the survey area. These relatively high concentrations are possibly derived from natural oil seeps and are therefore considered to be typical background concentrations for the area.


THC concentrations in the previous surveys of the North Falkland Basin sites were much lower than at Toroa. These survey areas were approximately 400 km away from the current site and comprised more coarse sediments, which may explain the lower THC values. However these differences in THC concentrations may support the possible occurrence of natural oil seeps proximal to Toroa.
tung von BHP abrufbar  

COS for Toroa?
==============

If a significant CSEM anomaly present then 70% chance of finding oil:
http://www.emgs.com/attachment.ap?id=145

We have a significant CSEM anomaly at Toroa, see page 10:
http://www.oilbarrel.com/fileadmin/content/pdfs/...entations/FOAG.ppt

They have also taken core samples from up to 200m deep at Toroa, and have had good oil shows.

So that together with the seismic analysis they did I would personally put the chance of 'finding Oil' at Toroa as 90%+.

Of course whether we will have a commercially viable find at Toroa is another question, factors such as quality/quantity/recoverability of the oil comes into it.

"Senergy reckons that 56 million barrels of recoverable oil would break even in the North Basin at $50/bbl oil, so it would get developed on the assumption of $60-65/bbl oil..."
http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/...-in-the-falkland-islands.aspx

Of course current oil price = $78/barrel.

Toroa has anything up to a staggering 3 billion barrels:
http://the-smart-money.blogspot.com/2008/06/fogl-good-punt.html

So overall I would say we are looking at a COCS (Chance of Commercial Success) of 50%+ on Toroa, a pretty good bet considering the % upside of a successful find (see RKH) and that FOGL are contractually committed to at least one more well in 2010.
And if BHP get a deep water rig (with BOR), no doubt they will be drilling more than that in 2010.  

... schon an FOGL für die Bohrung übergeben!?

http://www.rigzone.com/data/rig_detail.asp?rig_id=578  

... Bohrtiefe ca. 2700 Meter in 35 Tagen wissen wir mehr!

http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/Operations/story/drilling_updates?ref=6  

... nach dem Update der Bohrergebnisse von Rockhopper, die besser als ewartet ausfielen, waren alle Falklandexplorer extrem stark gefragt und teilweisein der Spitze mit 35 - 50% im Plus.
Sollte FOGL Ende Juni bzw. Anfang Juli auch einen Ölfund verkünden und das Volumen von Toroa bestätigt
werden, geht das Ding hier durch die Decke.
Wohin es gehen kann lässt sich aus der Präsentation 2009 AGM entnehmen (Auszüge)
 

• A 500 Million barrel discovery could be worth: ~£14 per share
• A 3.5 Billion barrel discovery find could be worth: ~£100 per share - "Page 5 of FOGL 2009 AGM Presentation"


• Toroa has potential mean reserves of: 1.7 billion barrels (un-risked)
• If Toroa is successful this would significantly reduce the risk on similar ‘follow-on’ prospects such as Lutra, Endeavour, Thulla & Inflexible - "Page 9 2010 AGM presentation"

FOGL value Toroa at £75 per share alone.

http://www.fogl.com/fogl/uploads/...esentationMay200913.05.09_000.pdf  

... allen Falklandexplorern:

http://www.fdcap.com/media/120040/falkland%20report.pdf  

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/investment/article7144506.ece