Kupfer - aes cyprium aut nominatus cuprum
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http://rohstoffblogger.blogspot.com/2011/06/...en-optimisten-und.html
vor allem wegen der chinesen!
Chinas Kupferimporte fallen auf 30-Monatstief
22.06.11, 09:22 Uhr
SCHANHGAI (Dow Jones)--Die chinesischen Einfuhren von Raffinadekupfer sind im Mai auf den tiefsten Wert seit 30 Monaten gefallen. Sie sanken im Mai im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat um 47% auf 149.325 t, wie die chinesische Zollbehörde am Dienstag mitteilte. (Foto: Aurubis)
Im Vergleich zum April gingen die Importe um 6,9% zurück. In den ersten fünf Monaten des laufenden Jahres beliefen sich die Raffinadekupferimporte laut der Zollbehörde auf 905.434 t und lagen damit 33% unter denen des Vorjahreszeitraums.
Auch bei den Importen von Kupferkonzentrat verzeichnete das Reich der Mitte den Angaben zufolge Rückgänge: Im Mai 2011 sanken sie um 2,2% auf 465.617 t im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat. Gegenüber April gingen die Einfuhren um 0,05% auf 465.829 t zurück. Im Zeitraum Januar bis Mai des laufenden Jahres importierte China mit 2,35 Mio t Kupferkonzentrat 15% weniger als im gleichen Zeitraum des Vorjahres.
Als Gründe für den deutlichen Rückgang der Importe nennen Analysten die gut gefüllten heimischen Lager und die Inlandsproduktion, die die angesichts restriktiverer Kreditkonditionen sinkende Nachfrage decken könnten. Ich denke, der Hauptgrund für die monatlich fallenden Importzahlen in diesem Jahr ist der erschwerte Zugriff auf Kredite. Die Kupferverarbeiter brauchen ihre Lagerbestände auf und kaufen nur das, was sie direkt für die Produktion brauchen , sagte Zhuo Guigiu, Analyst bei Minmetals Futures.
Die chinesischen Kupferhütten produzierten im Mai mit 439.000 t 10% mehr als im Vorjahresmonat. Allerdings ging die Produktion gegenüber April aufgrund der gesunkenen Nachfrage um 3,3% zurück. Im Zeitraum Januar bis Mai stieg die Produktion in China um den Rekordwert von 14% verglichen zum Vorjahrszeitraum auf 2,17 Mio t. Auch dieser Zuwachs hat laut Analysten dazu geführt, dass die Importe in den ersten fünf Monaten des Jahres gefallen sind.
Analysten nennen als Grund für die sinkenden Importe, dass die Preisdifferenz zwischen den Börsenpreisen in Schanghai und in London abnimmt. Dass die Preise in Schanghai zu den Preisen an der London Metal Exchange (LME) aufschließen, haben einige Importeure dazu veranlasst, das in den Lagern liegende Metall auf den heimischen Markt zu bringen. Ich habe gesehen, dass viel Kupfer aus den Zolllagern auf den heimischen Markt gebracht wurde, es gibt also viel rotes Metall am Markt , sagte ein Händler eines ausländischen Handelshauses.
China exportierte im Mai mit 20.175 t 331% mehr Raffinadekupfer als im Vorjahresmonat. Im Vergleich zum April gingen die Ausfuhren jedoch um 55% zurück, wie die chinesische Zollbehörde weiter mitteilte. In den ersten fünf Monaten beliefen sich die Ausfuhren auf 143.890 t, was mehr als der dreifachen Menge entspricht, die 2010 insgesamt exportiert wurde.
vielleicht hilfts dies manchen bei seiner entscheidung-schönen tag
................................
Und dennoch ist der Kupferpreis seit Tagen stabil um die 9.000 USD !
Zumindest scheint dies also nicht als Begründung für den Kursverlust von Rohstoffaktien, insbesondere Kupferbranche, heranziehbar.
Author: Leia Michele Toovey
Posted: Friday , 24 Jun 2011
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/...30068&sn=Detail
am 20. Juni 2011
Credit Suisse-Analyst Stefan Graber sagte, dass die Verlangsamung des Wirtschaftswachstums, dass wir in weitgehend hat sich der Kupferpreis eingepreist.
Graber :
"Wir hatten sehr negative Daten. Unsere Volkswirte würden argumentieren, dass ist nur eine vorübergehende Schwächephase, sondern aus einer Metall Sicht die Tatsache, das Kupfer (Holding) bei rund 9.000 $ ist positiv ", fügte er hinzu. "Es ist ein Indiz dafür, dass dieser Markt vielleicht schon in dieser Verlangsamung in Aktivität günstig."
Kupfer-und Aktienkurse sind hoch korreliert, aber Anfang Mai, dass die Korrelation brach zusammen und der Markt in der Folge gesunken. Die Kupfer-S & P peg scheint wieder hergestellt haben nach einem Ausverkauf in den Markt.
8 von 17 Analysten befragt Bloomberg sagen, dass Kupfer eingestellt ist höher gehen im Preis Berufung auf den Rückgang der Kupferbestände in Shanghai Futures Exchange und Chinas industrielle Produktion, die um 13,3% im Mai gestiegen trotz Zinserhöhungen.
International Copper Study Group prognostiziert, dass weltweit Kupferproduktion würden 4,6% in 2011 und 6,4% in 2012 steigen, obwohl die Gruppe der Präsident, Don Smale, sagte vor der Konferenz in Lusaka, dass "Minenproduktion hat gekämpft, um am erwarteten Wachstumsraten." Er später, dass seine Äußerungen nur auf den ersten beiden Monaten dieses Jahres wurden aufgrund geklärt.
Unterdessen warnte Chinas hochrangigen Regierungsvertretern Ökonom , dass das Land die politischen Entscheidungsträger müssen sich bewusst einer Verschärfung Überschwingen, wie er Parallelen zog mit Chinas 2006-07 Anziehen.
"Im Moment sind die monetären Bedingungen so eng wie in der Ende des Jahres 2007, während die zugrunde liegende Dynamik der Wirtschaft ist natürlich viel schwächer als die im Jahr 2007 ... Die überlappenden Wirkung von Verschärfungen wird wahrscheinlich Auslöser einige große Schwankungen auf dem Finanzmarkt und mehr Druck auf die Realwirtschaft ... Wenn die Investition Anstieg der staatlichen Wohnbauförderung nicht die Flaute der erwarteten Verlangsamung Immobilien-, Investitions-Offset, es droht die Gefahr der Über-Anziehen ", der Ökonom sagte.
http://marginalevolution.com/blog/archives/570/
das mit einer (eventuellen) Bullenfalle nicht auch bei Tiger passieren...?
http://nachrichten.finanztreff.de/...33196591,sektion,uebersicht.html
Genau diese Stimmung läßt mich am Tigerkauf momentan zögern!
Aber vielleicht hab ich den Aufwärtstrend ja auch verpaßt. Bei dem Anstieg der letzten zwei Tage wehrt sich aber innerlich meine Stimme, jetzt auch unbedingt noch einzukaufen, eben wegen der undurchschaubaren Gesamtlage.
Liebe Grüße
Wühlmaus
Wie wir wisse,hält die Börse Überraschungen in allen Richtungen bereit.
Meiner Meinung nach kann man aber auf längeeSicht als mit einem Ziel von ein paar tagen mit TIGER nichts falsch machen.
dazu sind die Fakten des Unternehmens einfach zu gut.
Und demnächst kommt der erste Kurzbericht über die Verkäufe in diesem Quartal. Dem folgen noch etliche weitere interessante Meldungen, die Tiger in Richtung Zukunft weisen.
Hierzu wäre es aber sinnvoll in den TIGER-Foren nachzulesen, oder einfach die diversen Aussagen auf der Tiger.Homepage zu erforschen.
Man sehe sich das Chartbild des vergangenen Jahres an.
Juni ganz unten, rasanter Aufstieg bis Jahresende.
In diesem Jahr Juni unten, aber auf mehr als doppelt so hohem Niveau wie 2010. Wenn sich diese Art der Steigerungen fortsetzen lässt, dann kannst du auch bereits Ende 2011 mit deutlichem Gewinn rechnen.
Freundliche Grüße
...und dass die zunehmenden Kupferrecyclingfirmen (besonders in China) denRohstoffproduzenten das Leben schwerer machen könnten... wie siehts damit aus (auf längere Sicht gesehen...)
L G
Wühlmaus
>> Morgen werden wir wohl einen klaren Hinweis aus Sidney erhalten, wo die Reise hingeht.
Wenn die heutigen Indizies im Positiven bleiben, dann wird es auch für die Australier schwer,dem ein Minus entgegen zu setzen.
Selbst, wenn ein deutliches Plus für Tiger heraus springen würde, so ist m.M.n. der Nach- und Aufholbedarf noch immens, weshalb ich auch voller Zuversicht auf die kommenden Entwicklungen des Tigers blicke.
Ich weiß selbst, dass ich nicht gerade der Pessimistengruppe angehöre, aber man hat mir in meiner Schulzeit bereits erklärt, dass ohne wirtschaftlichen Fortschritt es keine Fortschritte für die Menschen gäbe. Das genau macht mich optimistisch. Ohne Kupfer wird es solange keinen wirtschaftlichen Fortschritt geben, bis jemand eine Entdeckung macht, wie man Elektrizität kabellos durch die Luft transportiert.
Einen schönen Abend noch! <<
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/...m-kupferproduzenten-auf
Blanca_die_Haesin
schrieb am 29.06.11 18:06:38
Beitrag Nr.87
.................................................
Im Übrigen habe ich den Artikel der chin. Recycle - Geschichte gelesen, auf den du sicher aufmerksam machen möchtest.
Freundliche Grüße!
Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index posted a milder than expected correction in May, declining 2.6%.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 29 Jun 2011
RENO, NV -
Moderately lower base metals, molybdenum, uranium and silver prices more than offset stronger gold, potash and cobalt prices in May, lowering the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index by 2.3% last month.
LME copper prices eased from US$4.30 per pound in April to $4.05 per pound in May "and are still exceptionally lucrative at US$4.08 in late June," noted Scotiabank economist Patricia Mohr.
"Traders have been reluctant to bid prices below US$4, with Chinese buying expected to rebound in the second half of 2011 and world supply/demand conditions returning to ‘deficit;," she said.
Nevertheless, Mohr anticipates U.S. copper demand will be boosted in the third quarter by "resumed Japanese auto assemblies in the United States, as the parts shortage subsides-also lifting U.S industrial activity."
In her analysis, Mohr noted spot potash prices (FOB Vancouver) are up US$102 per tonne since December 2010, averaging $445 tonne in May to $481 per tonne in June.
"Canpotex has sold considerable volumes to Brazil and Southeast Asia recently at higher prices; another increase is being considered for late summer," she said. "As yet, there is no news on second-half potash contracts with India, which objects to rising prices from Canpotex and BPC [Belarusian Potash Company]."
"World potash deliveries should total around 58-59 mt in 2011, on a par with the previous peak in 2007," Mohr predicted.
Meanwhile, spot uranium prices edged down from an average of US$57.56 per pound in April to $56.90 in May and are now $54.25, said Mohr. Long term base contract prices fell $2 to $68 per pound in late May.
Mohr forecast that contract pricing for premium-graded coking coal from Western Canada to Asian markets "should hold up near the current record high of US$330 per tonne in 2011:Q3 (July to September)." She observed that Queensland mines have not yet fully recovered from flooding earlier this year and "supplies of higher-quality coal remain tight."
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/...tail&pid=102055
vor 7 Min (17:25) - Echtzeitnachricht"
Für Kupfer ist das jedenfalls gut. Die guten China-Zahlen und Streikdrohungen. Das ist gut für meinen Long-Trade...Gruß Holger
Hey Holger, hats nen falschen link drin, der hier dürfte stimmen: http://rohstoffblogger.blogspot.com/2011/07/...-rally-los-chinas.html
By Adam Hamilton
Jul 15 2011 2:07PM
Copper is growing increasingly popular among speculators, who are catapulting this unassuming base metal up into the rarified ranks of market-darling commodities. Neither precious like gold, nor immediately consumed like oil, copper’s price action is quite unique. And despite some risky headwinds remaining, its technicals are once again turning bullish today.
I last wrote about copper in mid-February, as it hit new all-time highs of $4.60 per pound. My essay then concluded, “The bottom line is copper is due for a major correction. Sentiment in this metal is wildly bullish thanks to its recent massive upleg and new all-time highs. Copper is very overbought technically, it has rallied too far too fast by its own bull-to-date standards. And it has ignored a major trend change in its LME stockpiles in order to follow the stock markets higher.”
This contrarian prediction came to pass. In the 5 months or so since, copper has not only failed to regain those lofty heights but has indeed corrected. Over several months ending in mid-May this base metal gradually ground 15.9% lower. It surrendered nearly 1/6th of its value in the global marketplace! Copper needed to correct for the reasons I articulated in mid-February, and the selling arrived as expected.
But ever since those mid-May lows, copper has been consolidating and gradually clawing its way higher. This was pretty darned impressive considering some of the stock-market action over the 2 months since. Copper is usually highly correlated with the stock markets, heavily influenced by general sentiment. Yet in the first couple weeks of June when the flagship S&P 500 stock index plunged 5.9%, copper only lost 0.8%. It was truly a remarkable display of relative strength for this economically-sensitive metal.
This resilience probably means one of two things. Copper’s correction could have been big enough and long enough to fulfill its mission of rebalancing sentiment. If its magnitude was sufficient to eradicate the greed of mid-February and usher in fear, then most of the bearish traders were probably squeezed out. This means there weren’t many sellers left in early June, which is a bullish sign for copper prices.
Alternatively, copper simply might not have followed the stock markets’ fast swoon lower then because it didn’t generate much meaningful fear. Copper gets crushed in fear-laden stock selloffs because they lead futures traders to assume global economic growth is in jeopardy, which would retard copper demand growth. If this thesis is correct, and the stock markets start falling again, copper could still get hit hard.
But exogenous sentiment influences aside, copper’s intrinsic technicals are certainly looking bullish. So traders ought to give it the benefit of the doubt today, while remaining vigilant for a stock-market selloff that could bleed into this popular base metal. This first chart examines some of the bullish copper technicals today. This metal’s price itself is rendered in blue and slaved to the right axis.
Copper has certainly enjoyed a spectacular run since 2008’s once-in-a-century stock panic. Between its panic low in December 2008 and its latest high in February 2011, this metal soared an astounding 261.0% higher. That might seem excessive, but realize it is mostly just a recovery after that hellstorm of fear spawned by the panic ripped copper to shreds. Between July 2008 and December 2008, it plummeted an apocalyptic 68.7%! Over 2/3rds of its value vaporized in just 6 months!
We capitalized on those ridiculously irrational and oversold copper prices by aggressively buying copper stocks. An elite-copper-stock long-term investment we recommended to our subscribers in the heart of the stock panic was up 277.8% as of this week! Those panic lows were just absurdly silly. That crazy panic anomaly aside, between its July 2008 and February 2011 highs copper only rallied 13.0%. Far from excessive, this is downright trivial.
So it’s not righteous to look at copper’s post-panic surge in isolation and claim this metal must be in a bubble. In broader secular context stretching back several years before 2008’s panic, copper’s bull has actually been very modest. While the blistering pace of copper’s post-panic recovery won’t be sustainable indefinitely, copper should still continue gradually marching higher on balance. At least as long as its secular fundamentals remain bullish, with its global demand growth outpacing supply growth.
As for its current bullish technicals, note that copper’s recent grinding 15.9% correction over 2.9 months dragged it back down to a couple critical support lines. The first, and most important by far, is copper’s 200-day moving average. In ongoing bull markets, 200dmas are generally the highest-probability bounce points for healthy corrections to bottom.
And after copper first hit this key metric in early May, it spent the better part of 8 consecutive weeks bouncing along it. The longer a price lingers and climbs along a major support line after a correction, the more likely a true bottom has indeed been seen. And 8 weeks is an awfully-long time, especially since this span encompassed that big early-June selloff in the stock markets that copper nonchalantly shrugged off.
In addition, since this latest correction bottomed a secondary support line has held for just as long. Note above that the lower support of copper’s well-defined post-panic uptrend has held strong. The last time this particular support line was approached was back in the summer of 2010 after copper’s last major correction. That earlier selloff was driven by a parallel correction in the stock markets, which is one reason why any new stock correction poses big downside risk for copper.
That same uptrend support line that held strong in the summer of 2010 has so far held strong in the summer of 2011. This is a great secondary confirmation of a probable copper trend change from correction mode to new-upleg mode. But personally, I believe the 200dma holding is far more important. Copper can’t continue surging at its outsized post-panic-recovery pace indefinitely, so at some point this recovery uptrend’s support line will fail even though copper’s secular bull remains intact.
But while copper’s technicals look bullish based on holding strong at multiple support lines for a couple months, all isn’t rainbows and unicorns. Relative to its 200dma, copper never hit very-oversold levels in its recent major correction. This significantly increases the odds that the correction might not be over yet, that we may have to see another low before the next upleg begins. This is based on my successful and profitable Relativity trading system.
Interestingly if you take any price in a secular trend and divide it by its own 200dma, the resulting multiple forms a horizontal trading range. This multiple for copper is rendered above in light red, slaved to the left axis. If you flattened the black 200dma line to horizontal, and recast the blue copper-price line as a perfectly-comparable-percentage multiple of it, the result is the Relative Copper (rCopper) line.
Over time, this rCopper construct forms definite support and resistance zones. We define these based on where rCopper has meandered over the latest 5 calendar years. Our subscribers can log in to our website and look at the large high-resolution long-range chart (updated weekly) we used to define copper’s relative trading range. Today it runs from 0.90x on the low side to 1.20x on the high side. In other words, copper tends to trade between 90% to 120% of its own 200-day moving average.
Unfortunately when copper bottomed in mid-May, it was only at 0.971x relative. It wasn’t super-oversold yet, fear simply wasn’t extreme enough, as defined by copper’s bull-to-date precedent. Contrast this with rCopper’s deep 0.883x relative low back in June 2010 after its last major correction. While copper’s recent support-hugging behavior for a couple months after its mid-May low suggests a durable bottom, the lack of a deeply-oversold rCopper reading at that time certainly undermines this.
It’s not that copper remained overbought in mid-May, far from it. But it just wasn’t as low yet as major corrections have tended to drag it over the past 5 years or so. This means that despite copper’s bullish technicals, it likely remains very susceptible to fear splash damage driven by any renewed stock-market selloff. So if the S&P 500 starts falling fast enough to spark real fear, odds are copper will be sold in sympathy. And it will probably hit a new low in this scenario, extending its recent correction.
Because of this ambiguity, I thought about not even writing this essay. But this is simply the way the markets usually work. While there are those rare times when all the indicators line up perfectly to herald a high-probability-for-success buying opportunity or selling warning, most of the time everything isn’t in agreement. The more indicators that agree the better the odds, but they still never approach certainty.
This next chart shows a key fundamental copper-price driver that helps offset the lack of an ideal rCopper low. It is the levels of the London Metal Exchange’s copper stockpiles. The LME runs a global network of warehouses that act as a buffer between copper miners and consumers. While most copper mined is shipped directly from producers to consumers under contract, occasionally a miner will have excess production beyond contract or a factory will need more copper than usual.
So the LME warehouses around the world provide places where this excess physical copper on the margins of global supply and demand can be traded between producers and consumers. Each day the LME publishes these total copper stockpiles, which are eagerly watched by speculators. Rising stockpiles mean copper’s global supply-demand imbalance isn’t as tight, so prices are likely to fall. And declining stockpiles reveal tightening supplies, which usually leads traders to bid up copper.
Because of the wild dislocations spawned by 2008’s stock panic, the relationship between copper prices and LME stockpiles isn’t as clear since then. But if you look at a longer-term chart, it is readily apparent that prices and stockpiles naturally have a strong inverse relationship. The farther the stock panic recedes into the rearview mirror and the more conditions return to normal, the more this logical relationship will reassert itself. With copper now recovered into its pre-panic secular uptrend, stockpiles are important again.
Given the big numbers of and diversity in both the global copper miners and the factories that fabricate finished goods using this copper, it isn’t surprising that changes in aggregate supply and demand move slowly. It takes many months to ramp up mine production or factory production, output changes can’t happen overnight. Thus the LME stockpiles tend to slowly meander in low-volatility trends. Note how straight the red stockpile lines are compared to the blue copper price.
And whenever major trend changes happen, from copper tightness to relative abundance or vice versa, they tend to be gradual and decisive. There aren’t many instances in this bull where LME stockpiles started moving the opposite direction for a month or two where it was merely a head fake. Once supply started outpacing demand or vice versa, the resulting trend changes tended to be durable and sustained.
Note above that back in mid-June soon after copper’s latest bottoming, global LME copper stockpiles peaked near 478k metric tons. In the month or so since, they have been relentlessly drawn down by a material 3.4%. While it is possible this trend change will soon reverse and copper stockpiles will begin rising again, it isn’t probable in light of LME stockpiles’ bull-to-date precedent. And if extra copper continues to be bought out of the LME’s warehouses, traders are likely to bid copper prices higher.
The last couple major draws in LME copper stockpiles are crystal-clear in this chart, a huge 53.2% draw ending in mid-2009 and a longer 37.2% one ending in late 2010. Since stockpiles didn’t get up to their post-panic trading range’s resistance of 550k tonnes in their recent peak, I certainly don’t expect a drawdown of this magnitude. But it would still be perfectly normal for stockpiles to trend down towards their 350k support line. This is another 112k tonnes of copper likely to be drawn over a couple quarters!
If this LME stockpile trend change is durable and sustained, and it gradually heads back down towards its post-panic support, it is hard to imagine speculative capital not flowing back into copper. While copper is still at risk of getting sucked into the fearful sentiment in a material stock-market selloff, falling LME stockpiles will almost certainly dampen its impact on this metal. Bullish fundamentals always generate a tailwind.
So not only are copper’s intrinsic technicals looking pretty bullish, its supply-demand fundamentals are providing confirmation. Though a stock-market selloff could temporarily drag copper to new correction lows, this setup is bullish enough to start a gradual deployment into the beaten-down copper stocks. We just started buying and recommending copper stocks again in our subscription newsletters, with more to come soon if copper’s technicals and fundamentals remain favorable.
At Zeal we’ve been researching and actively trading these secular commodities bulls for over a decade, yielding priceless wisdom, knowledge, and instincts that newer commodities-stock traders can’t match. We’ve generated an awesome real-world track record. Since 2001, all 591 stock trades recommended in our newsletters have averaged annualized realized gains of 51%! Has your capital been growing this fast for a decade? Why not?
We share the profitable fruits of our hard work with our subscribers, who finance our ongoing research efforts. We publish acclaimed weekly and monthly subscription newsletters that help speculators and investors learn to thrive. In them I weave together all our research and experience to show what the markets are doing, why, and where they are likely heading. And when probabilities are favorable, we recommend specific stock trades you can mirror. Subscribe today and start thriving!
The bottom line is copper’s technicals are looking pretty bullish today. Even though copper’s latest correction didn’t leave it quite as oversold as it was after past major corrections, its price action has been excellent since. Major support lines have held strong, even during a sharp stock-market selloff. On top of this, global copper stockpiles appear to have just turned the corner into a new bullish drawdown mode.
Given the stock markets’ strong influence on copper traders’ sentiment, there is still a decent chance that any new stock-market selloff sharp enough to generate fear would drag copper back down. It may even fall far enough to hit new correction lows. Nevertheless, since it has just corrected and its fundamentals are now bullish again, any stock-driven selloff is likely to be short-lived and a fantastic buying op.
Adam Hamilton, CPA
July 15, 2011
http://www.kitco.com/ind/hamilton/jul152011.html
http://www.saarbruecker-zeitung.de/aufmacher/...,3851419#.TiPco2Gzha4
Zeitpunkt: 19.07.11 08:35
Aktion: Löschung des Beitrages
Kommentar: Beleidigung - Provokation-bitte unterlassen
- Foto: Infografik Welt Online
- 114,5 Billionen Dollar. So hoch ist die Summe aller ungedeckten Verbindlichkeiten der USA - also Staatsschulden einschließlich Renten, Sozialleistungen und privaten Schulden der Bürger.
- Quelle: www.wtfnoway.com
und wieder einmal: - ca. 30 % in 3 tagen !!!!!!!!!!!!
aber wir wissen ja,.............selbst wenn das ding 80% verloren hätte- du würdest immernoch 5 x am tag dieses ding in den himmel pushen ..haha