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So long...
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..angaben wie immer ohne gewehr und monition ! ;-)
stay long and strong immernoch...
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Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Chinas Battle for African Uranium
As reported by the Wall Street Journal, Sunday nights revelations that China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC) may strengthen its ties to UraMin could represent a broader picture than an ordinary acquisition of a near-term uranium producer.
There is an ongoing global war for energy security, which appears to be politically inspired. China and Russia are the main opponents, especially in Africa, but have rivaled each other, over the past several years, in Central Asia. The goal for both nations is not only energy security but political influence and alliance over their targeted territories.
On May 12th, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed a declaration to upgrade and expand transport pipelines along the Caspian Sea coast directly to Russia. The project relies mainly upon the vast Turkmen gas reserves. This is part of Russias growing monopoly of Central Asian gas. Although Europe was shocked by Vladimir Putins new arrangement, the Chinese were flabbergasted.
Weve been following developments in Central Asia, and had reported upon milestone events in both of our uranium publications, and again (with far greater details) in our soon-to-be-released Investing in Chinas Energy Crisis.
After more than two decades in power, Turkmen strongman Saparmurat Niyazov passed away this past December. In April 2006, Niyazov had signed a framework agreement on oil and gas cooperation. By August, Niyazov had announced a pipeline, designed to pump gas to China, would be opened in 2009. The deal died with the dictator, it appears.
A few weeks ago, a spokesman for Chinas National Reform and Development Committee announced China was unlikely to reach its natural gas target of a 10-percent portion of the countrys energy portfolio by 2010. Increasingly, Russia has shut China out of Central Asia in obtaining long-term, multiple energy sources.
Aside from South America, where China has strengthened the countrys ties with Venezuela and others, Africa is a prime hunting ground for Chinas future energy security. China has established a strong foothold in the Sudan for petroleum. But, Africa is rich in uranium deposits.
According to a report published by the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2005, Africa has 18 percent of the worlds known recoverable uranium resources about six percent less than Australia and one percent more than Kazakhstan. We began coverage on both Namibia and Niger, after Russia sent a delegation to Egypt to discuss the nuclear renaissance. At the time, our research pointed to Africa, particularly those countries, as ripe for future uranium production. Chinese prospectors raced to Niger within weeks after our initial coverage.
During 2006, Namibia became saturated with numerous exploration plays hoping to capitalize on the countrys uranium resources and relaxed environment. Consequently, the Namibian Minister of Mines and Energy closed the countrys exploration window. Since then, Niger has become a new hunting ground. We expect this country to become just as saturated as Namibia has been.
China is eager to capitalize upon the continents uranium resources before Russia outmaneuvers them as has been accomplished in Central Asia.
According to an email we received from TradeTechs Gene Clark, after presenting at the China Power & Alternative Energy Summit on May 18th, he told us Chinas official target for nuclear power capacity was 40 GWe by 2020 and another 18 GWe in the following five-year plan. This confirms Chinas aggressive plans to acquire sufficient uranium to reach this capacity, and would be foolish to rely on just Australia.
Typically, China has built its energy portfolio through numerous deals across multiple regions. This past October, Yang Changli, vice president of China National Nuclear, said it would seek uranium not only from Australia, but from Canada, Kazakhstan, South Africa and Namibia. In an interview Yang gave during the 15th Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference, he said, China won't rely on any single supplier of uranium because of energy security considerations.
Namibia is the First African Focus of Uranium Politiques
On May 14th, Russias second-largest bank Vneshtorgbank and Russias state-run nuclear exporter Tekhsnabexport announced they were considered a joint venture to operate in Namibia through licenses they directly hold and through investments in other companies which have obtained licenses in Namibia.
In March Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov announced his country was prepared to building nuclear plants in Namibia. Neighboring South Africa had previously warned Namibia to expect reductions in energy supplies. Namibia is dependent upon South Africa for electricity and has forecast an energy deficit of 300 megawatts within the next three years.
On May 10th, Russia and Kazakhstan signed an agreement to set up the International Uranium Enrichment Center, anticipated to come onstream by 2013. As part of this announcement, Sergei Kiriyenko, head of the Federal Nuclear Power Agency, said, Any country can become a member of the center by signing an intergovernmental agreement granting it guaranteed access to uranium enrichment services. We conclude Namibia may wish to participate in this arrangement.
Enter CNNC on Sunday night. The Chinese companys deputy general manager for uranium procurement announced to Bloomberg News that CNNC and UraMin will start more formal talks this week.
UraMin is a prime acquisition candidate for the Chinese because of its uranium prospects in both Namibia and Niger. The company also has holdings in South Africa and the Central African Republic.
We are now facing a new era of uranium politics or rather Uranium Politiques. And there is good reason for this to escalate. Yesterday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration issued International Energy Outlook 2007. The report announced, World marketed energy is expected to grow by 57 percent between 2004 and 2030.
The most rapid growth in energy demand is anticipated in non-OECD Asia. The majority of this energy demand growth would come from China and India. This was the reference case the middle ground of growth.
Also on Monday, leading Russian nuclear expert Yevgeny Velikhov, head of the Kurchatov Institute, told reporters at a news conference that the recent surge in uranium prices may still grow by another order of magnitude. He believes the uranium price will continue to rise as global uranium demand soars while supplies remain tight. The global energy market is very turbulent, Velikhov said. The uranium price can hit any mark at a time of crisis. Ironically, both crisis and turbulence have come about because of the Asian and Russian scramble to lock-up the uranium resources of entire countries.
The energy battle in Africa is good news for the two front-runners in Namibia: UraMin and Forsys Metals. Weve called this a horse race, over the past several months. Both endeavor to become the next miner following Paladin Resources in this country.
Yet, both companies are vulnerable to acquisition efforts by Russian or Chinese companies. Or either could be acquired by one or more majors hoping to build up their uranium reserves. In the case of Rio Tinto, acquiring one or both could mean expanding uranium operations in this country.
Acquisition Candidates
Just as the announcement by Energy Metals Corp, regarding a potential sale of the company, fueled weekend speculation as to the next takeover candidates, the same could occur this week with African acquisition candidates.
One might be misled into believing China would focus on Niger, where the company has built a foundation, and Russias focus would remain in Namibia. However, in a state visit to China this week, Namibian Defense force chief exchanged views with Guo Boxiong, Central Military Commission vice chairman, on promoting relations between the two countries.
In February, Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Namibia to sign an economic deal with Namibia giving the country a grant of US$4.3 million and an interest-free loan of the same amount. Reportedly, some of the money would be used to boost group tourism from China to Namibia. This is the same tactic China has utilized in courting relationships in South America to help develop natural resource deals.
With US$1.2 trillion in foreign currency reserves, China is exercising its financial biceps. In March, the country formed the Huijin Fund as the states investment arm. Up to US$400 billion have reportedly been placed in this fund for investment purposes. On Sunday night, the Huijin Fund invested US$3 billion to purchase a stake in about 9.9 percent of the Blackstone private equity firm. Our research suggests the fund is likely to strongly invest in natural resources.
On this basis, we can not rule out a simple carving of Africa. We dont believe China will quietly step back and focus the countrys uranium acquisition efforts in Niger, permitting Russia to concentrate on Namibia and South African uranium.
In Niger, we covered two early days prospective uranium juniors over a year ago. North Atlantic Resources acquired a uranium permit in the 1900-square kilometer Abelajouad in this country. This past April, the company increased its holdings to nearly 3,000 square kilometers. In late April, Northwestern Mineral Ventures announced uranium mineralization in assays from rock samples after a first-pass reconnaissance on its In Gall and Irhazer uranium properties. Both would need to further explore their properties before attracting serious interest from the Chinese.
However, in Namibia both UraMin and Forsys Metals are actively progressing toward mining uranium on their properties. Either could be the first, but we believe both should become winners in the uranium bull market. Because China has carefully aligned with UraMin, or at least shown an inkling to do so, we suspect Russia might begin to look more carefully at Forsys Metals. This is purely speculation based upon our premise of uranium Politiques. We do not have any inside track on this matter.
Fortunately, we had the opportunity to chat with Forsys chief executive Duane Parnham late last week. His company had announced the completion of the pre-feasibility study on the companys Valencia uranium deposit in Namibia. We missed the companys conference call, but were allowed the opportunity to discuss his companys prospects and future plans during a telephone call.
The companys pre-feasibility study was prepared by Australia-based Snowden Mining, which used the guidelines of Australias JORC code. Subsequently, the Valencia uranium mineral reserve was classified as Probable Reserves. These were calculated at 24 million pounds U3O8.
We asked about production. We are now modeling 2.4 million pounds per year, Parnham told us. He expects to payback in less than two years. With Forsys as with all near-term producers, some early conversations have begun about pre-selling the companys uranium production after production has commenced.
His companys news release talked about six month of stripping during the initial part of the operation so we started there. Well start when we get a mining license and then looking at production. When will the company complete its ongoing environmental assessment? We are hoping to have an environmental decision by year end, Parnham told us. We are hoping to have enough data to apply for a mining license in early 2008. If thats successful, then obviously the decision to go forward will be made at that time.
For the time being, the company plans to expand its resource. The pre-feasibility is just the first snapshot of the situation, he said. We are finding the pit optimization study is only looking at a very small portion of the overall resource. Does that mean the resource is actually larger, then? Its a heck of a lot bigger, he told us. Its just a function of how much data you have available to punch into the model. Then, how much does the model give you back? The evaluation process is ongoing. Youll probably see a change in the pit design very shortly because we have the ability to move more resource into the reserve category.
We talked about his companys horse race with UraMin. How does it look? Neck and neck, toe to toe, Parnham said. I think it shows theres opportunity in Namibia, and thats good that there are a number of us working for a common goal.
Finally, we asked what has emerged as the key question: Is Forsys a ripe plum for the picking. He offered both sides of the coin. Where the real opportunity lies is putting a property into production, he responded. The operation isnt all that difficult so its not a deposit that our expanding team couldnt put into production. And then Parnham left the door open. Anything can happen. Its an open market, and we are a public company. But, we are certainly geared toward putting this into production.
And from what weve seen among the recent, significant consolidations, those companies who have commenced production, and those closest to production, are the prime acquisition candidates. Why should companies developing projects in Africa become the exception instead of the rule? Especially when two super powers are both eagerly trying to establish stronger uranium footholds in this continent.
http://finance-loanppmnyz.blogspot.com/2008/04/...frican-uranium.html
http://www.forsysmetals.com/Valencia_Fact_Sheet_Apr_08.pdf
Wenn ich Aktiengeschichte wäre würde ich mir das mit dem 911 noch mal gut überlegen. Seit ich weiss dass Werner so etwas fährt, wenn auch nur als Burago, hat das Auto für mich etwas proletiges. Da wäre ja eine Corvette erstrebenswerter. Dafür brauchst Du aber nicht sooo viel Geld. Wie wäre es da mit Maserati oder Aston (Tata);-)))
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FORSYS METALS CORP COM NPV
Börse: Toronto
Datum: 08.04.08
Tickliste Zeit Kurs Volumen
22:33:30 K 3,040 1000 ;-)
22:32:13 K 3,040 5000 ;-)
22:31:20 K 3,040 2000 ;-)
22:30:29 K 3,040 5000 ;-)
22:30:29 K 3,040 100 !?
21:53:29 K 3,040 1900
21:53:29 K 3,030 200
21:53:29 K 3,000 400
21:52:34 K 3,000 2000
21:52:34 K 3,000 5000
21:51:42 K 2,990 1000
21:50:47 K 2,990 2000
... auf jedenfall interessant !
Investor's Daily Der E-Mail-Dienst für Investoren, Ausgabe vom 8. April 2008 * Wenig positive Nachrichten * US-Konjunkturdaten * E-Mail an Redaktion und Verlag * Empfehlen Sie "Investor's Daily" weiter * Besuchen Sie uns im Internet Wenig positive Nachrichten von Jochen Steffens Der heutige Tag im Dax kann als Retest der 6.700er Marke durchgehen, aber eigentlich hätten die Kurse dynamisch weiter ansteigen müssen. Gut, heute Abend wird das Fed-Sitzungsprotokoll erwartet. Da bei der letzten Fed-Sitzung einige Fed-Mitglieder bereits gegen die deutliche Zinssenkung gestimmt haben, wird der Markt in Sorge sein, dass in dem Sitzungsprotokoll die Inflationssorgen zu deutlich betont werden oder irgendetwas darauf hinweist, dass die Zinsen nicht mehr weiter gesenkt werden. Das drückt aktuell die Kurse. Es wäre aber gut, wenn die 6.700 Punkte hält. Das, was wir gerade seit dem Tief erleben, ist die erste Gegenbewegung, die man nach dem Einbruch als solche bezeichnen kann. Wie Sie wissen, gibt erst die Gegenbewegung Aufschluss über die tatsächliche Verfassung des Marktes. Erst diese wird uns zeigen, was mit dem Markt wirklich los ist und nichts anderes. Würde man nur auf die Nachrichten hören, käme man zu dem Schluss, alles zu verkaufen. Aber zu diesem Schluss würde man dann in nahezu jeder Konsolidierung kommen. Viele fundamental negative Nachrichten Die Nachrichten folgen den Kursen, werden umso düsterer, je weiter die Kurse fallen. Offenbar werden in solchen Phasen Nachrichten von den Medien, den Journalisten und Redakteuren anders „interpretiert“, ausgewählt oder gewertet. Anders ist dieser Unterschied nicht zu erklären. Schaut man sich das an, was im Moment als Fakten durch die Medienlandschaft geistert, muss man eigentlich bearish werden: Der hohe Ölpreis belastet den Konsum und die Gewinnmargen der US-Unternehmen. Dabei ist relativ sicher, dass wir nie wieder wirklich günstige Preise erleben werden, einfach weil die steigende Nachfrage nur noch durch teurere Produktionsstätten befriedigt werden kann. Die Immobilienkrise führt zu steigenden Arbeitslosenzahlen und damit ebenfalls zu einer sinkenden Konsumbereitschaft in den USA. Beides wirkt sich auf die US-Unternehmensgewinne dämpfend aus. Dann ist zu lesen, dass Finanzmarktkrisen in der Geschichte oft der Auslöser für längere schlechte Phasen an den Börsen gewesen ist, und es sähe so aus, als wäre die Krise noch lange nicht vorbei. Zumindest sollen noch einige Abschreibungen auf uns zukommen. China, das Ende einer Blase? Aber auch aus der restlichen Welt kommen negative Nachrichten: Asien, insbesondere China, hat mit einer Vielzahl von Problemen zu kämpfen, insbesondere mit einer hohen Inflation, aber auch mit Unruhen in den Provinzen. Es besteht die Gefahr, dass China nicht mehr lange die aktuellen Wachstumsraten durchhalten kann, natürlich ganz besonders dann, wenn die US-Wirtschaft schwächeln sollte. Wenn das passiert, wird das Land seine Funktion als Wachstumsmotor in der Region verlieren. Ist also die Aktienblase in China kurz vor dem Ende? Welche Auswirkungen hätte das wiederum rückwirkend auf die großen Unternehmen in den USA und Europa? Wahrscheinlich würde auch das die Unternehmensgewinne zusätzlich belasten. Soziale Unruhen durch Nahrungsmittelpreise Die Nahrungsmittelpreise explodieren, gerade ist der Reispreis dabei, zu haussieren. Prompt wird von mehreren Stellen vor sozialen Unruhen in der Welt gewarnt, für den Fall, dass die Nahrungsmittel noch teurer werden. Soziale Unruhen, die vielleicht ganze Staaten erfassen, können sich ebenfalls als Belastungsfaktor für die Weltwirtschaft erweisen. Das Ende der deflationären Einflüsse Und selbst von mir lesen Sie, was die langfristigen Prognosen anbetrifft, bearishe Kommentare. Meiner Meinung nach befindet sich die Welt mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit am Anfang einer langen Phase der Inflation. Als Grund habe ich das Ende der deflationären Wirkungen der Globalisierung genannt. Das ist nur ein kleiner Teil der schlechten Nachrichten, aber er reicht schon, um wenig hoffnungsfroh in die Zukunft zu blicken. Schafft die Fed es noch einmal, dagegen zu halten? Aber die Fed steuert dagegen, mit niedrigsten Zinsen, die Regierung hofft auf Konjunkturprogramme. Wird also der Motor der Weltwirtschaft noch einmal anspringen? Werden wir noch einmal einen wirtschaftlichen Schub erleben, der sich in den Kursen ausdrücken wird? Gehen wir einmal davon aus, dass es funktioniert, was passiert dann mit den ganzen schlechten Nachrichten? Schaut man genau hin, werden diese sich nicht in Luft auflösen, sie sind immer noch vorhanden. Die US-Immobilienkrise wird zum Beispiel seit 2003 angemahnt, der Ölpreis stieg auch in der Zeit der Hausse auf neue Hochs. Geopolitische Probleme gab es in den letzten 5 Jahren viele. Aber diese Nachrichten werden, wenn die Kurse steigen, anders gewichtet. Nicht nur, dass die Anleger sie weniger interessiert wahrnehmen, auch die Journalisten und Redakteure schreiben in Boomphasen lieber über all die positiven Aspekte, die ganz bestimmt zu weiter steigenden Kursen führen... In letzter Zeit bin ich zu dem Schluss gekommen, dass das Verhältnis der möglichen positiven und negativen Nachrichten nicht ansatzweise so stark schwankt, wie man meistens denkt. Auf jeden Fall ist der subjektive Einfluss der Beteiligten auf die Nachrichtenlage derart groß, dass man sich über die Medien kein objektives Bild verschaffen kann. Vor allem wenn sie „zu“ positiv, oder „zu“ negativ sind. Der Markt hat immer Recht Also entscheidet letzten Endes der Markt, wo es lang geht. Wie gesagt, die aktuelle Gegenbewegung ist ein erster, aber entscheidender Hinweis. Scheitert diese, gibt es zwar noch ein, zwei weitere Möglichkeiten für die Bullen, aber es wird dann deutlich enger. Sollte es jedoch spätestens ab September / Oktober nicht zu einer Rallye kommen, müssen wir davon ausgehen, dass die Kurse auch noch weit ins Jahr 2009 und sogar 2010 hinein nicht mehr weiter steigen können. Ob wir in diesem Fall in den nächsten Jahren überhaupt noch neue Hochs erleben, ist mehr als fraglich. Schafft es diese Gegenbewegung jedoch eine dynamische Stärke zu entwickeln, werden bald auch positive Nachrichten folgen. Spätestens wenn neue Hochs erreicht werden, wird kaum noch jemand die negativen Nachrichten beachten.
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