Ceramic Fuel Cells Die Rakekte kommt! Der Anfang

 

auch sehr interessant die mitkonkurrenten, Staxera kannte ich schon, Topsoe und Ceres allerdings nicht.  

auf die nächsten news...

 

 

 

geht es aber ins grüne..

 

 

 

entwicklung in Frankfurt ist sekundär. Der Umsatz am Freitag betrug gerade einmal lächerliche 1100 €. Ich würde bei CFCL nur in Australien (Sydney) investieren, aus zwei Gründen:

1. EUR/AUD befindet sich zurzeit in einem Abwärtstrend, d.h. du umgehst das Währungsrisiko, das du mit EUR hättest.

2. In Sydney ist das Volumen deutlich höher, es liegt selbst an sehr schlechten Tagen kaum unter 200.000 AUD.

 

Und der Spread ist kleiner.  

um himmels willen, nur weil man eine aktie an einer anderen börse kauft, umgeht man doch kein währungsrisiko, bitte nachdenken, vor dem schreiben

natürlich sind hier die umsätze aktuell mies, aber zum traden ist diese aktie ohnehin nicht da und bei den kleinen positionen, die die leute hier handeln (10.000 bis vielleicht 30.000 stk) stehen die gebühren beim direkthandel in sydney in keiner relation

aber ja, der spread ist dort natürlich kleiner, aber auch das gibt sich, wenn die umsätze hier zunehmen; wer mit zu viel geld ist drin ist, dann ists natürlich nicht so ideal, aber ich häng nur mit knapp 40.000 aktien drin, das kann jetzt auch liegen bleiben

 

Ich glaube die ruhige Phase ist bald vorbei....
 

Lest mal ab Seite 48 !!!

http://www.itm-power.com/cmsFiles/investors/...CellReport_Apr2010.pdf

INVESTMENT THESIS: We believe the near-term profit profile, together with a lack of market leadership in any core market makes it difficult for us to recommend accumulation of CFU even on a speculative basis. We do not believe that the risk associated with CFU’s current valuation is compelling especially given discounted valuations of higher quality companies with proven initial commercialization. Trading at >40x current sales run-rate, growth story through CY12 is discounted in today’s share price.

 

 

FUNDAMENTALS: CFU is focused on the stationary power market through its SOFC technology. Although we believe that CFU’s choice of fuel cell technology (SOFC) is likely among the most competitive solutions for stationary power generation due to its 60% efficiency, we believe that its target market (the residential market) is unlikely to be competitive vs. tradition grid pricing for several more years. Given low revenue run-rate and high cash burn, we advise investors await better entry opportunity. We would likely become more excited about prospects for shares if strategic focus was geared towards becoming a component/materials supplier to an existing SOFC fuel cell company. Maintaining partnerships that span many geographies (UK, Germany, France, Japan and most recently Switzerland) from its Australian headquarters seems to be an expensive proposition with many hurdles ahead. VALUATION ANALYSIS: Trading at approximately one-third of its CY04 IPO valuation is not a catalyst in itself as CFU has had a tougher time scaling sales over the past five years than anticipated. Relative to itself, CFU is trading in-line with average levels, but relative to peer group it is among the most expensive name. We view current valuation with enterprise value of ~$200Mn as rich relative to peers with similar valuations and significantly larger market penetrations (i.e. BLDP and FCEL). Balance sheet is a threat with only ~$20M in cash and a burn rate that suggests capital will be needed in 2H10 to sustain operations. SENTIMENT: CFU has significant insider ownership at 23% but dismal institutional ownership ~18%, with most institutional ownership European. In 4Q09, sold-out positions out number new positions 3 to 0, but we note recent recovery in share price might signal incremental interest after placement with Cosvegas in Switzerland. OUR EXPECTATIONS VS. STREET: The current Street expectations (per model) discounts a view that management will be able to execute plan to reach breakeven by CY12. The biggest swing factor in model is clearly revenue given the current Reuters estimate discount growth from <$2M in FY09 (June), which was almost entirely driven by field trial sales to ~$64M in FY12. Similarly, we see risk to Street gross margin assumptions, as subsidation will unlikely continue once product gains momentum. Strategic Initiatives: CFCL will be the supplier of choice for reliable and high electrically efficient solid oxide fuel cell products, which manufacturers can easily integrate into micro generation appliances for the European market.  To implement this strategy, CFCL has: § Successfully developed and tested its fuel cells, as single cells and integrated stacks; § Designed and built the Balance of Plant systems; § Integrated its fuel cell stacks with its Balance of Plant into complete CHP demonstration units; § Delivered CHP demonstration units to customers for field trials; § Designed and built a prototype ‘fuel cell micro-generator’ unit – called ‘Net~Gen™’; § Established a plant in the UK to produce high quality ceramic powders, which are a key component of solid oxide fuel cells, using the Company’s patented technology; § Established a fuel cell stack manufacturing plant in Germany to enable large scale manufacturing of the Company’s fuel cells.  To successfully commercialize its technology, the Company intends to: § Conclude arrangements with appliance manufacturers to incorporate CFCL’s fuel cells into their end-user products; § Continue to improve its fuel cells - in particular, power output and stack life – and make it easier for appliance manufacturers to integrate CFCL’s fuel cells and Balance of Plant systems into a range of end user products. § CFCL will focus on implementing this strategy, whilst keeping an eye on other opportunities – from within or outside the fuel cell world - that can generate revenue or otherwise add to shareholder value.  Industry Collaborations: Ceramic Fuel Cells has entered into agreements with various companies for the supply of fuel cells over the next few years. Some of the key agreements are mentioned below. § Partners in France: In December 2006 the Company signed a product development agreement with Gaz de France and De Dietrich Thermique. § Partners in Germany: In March 2007 CFCL signed a product development agreement with EWE and Bruns Heiztechnik GmbH (Bruns), a specialist German boiler manufacturer. § Partners in the United Kingdom: In July 2007 the Company signed an agreement with E.ON UK Ltd, the company that runs Powergen, to develop a unit for the UK market. § Partner in Japan: Under the agreement, CFCL and Paloma will work together to evaluate and develop a commercial m-CHP product by integrating CFCL&#39;s advanced fuel cell module with a Paloma home heating appliance.    

GEDANKEN EINES ENGLISCHEN FORUM-TEILNEHMERS ZU DEM GESTERN EINGEFÜGTEN BERICHT (FUEL CELL REPORT): 

Some points from the Tradition piece

>>Trading at >40x current sales run-rate, growth story through CY12 is discounted in today’s share price

Translation - they need volume sales - we know that.
Why are current sales relevant - without thinking about potential for scaling up?

>>CFU’s choice of fuel cell technology (SOFC) is likely among the most competitive solutions for stationary power generation

Good to hear that especially from someone with a negative view. But competitive technology does not always an investment winner make.

>>its target market (the residential market) is unlikely to be competitive vs. tradition (sic) grid pricing for several more years

So, even they think it will be.

>>CFU has... dismal institutional ownership ~18%

Interesting phrasing compared to their picks
BLDP has low institutional ... ownership at 16%
FCEL has relatively higher institutional (ownership) 57%

>>capital will be needed in 2H10 to sustain operations
For CFU that´s a threat for FCEL "A successful capital raise (which will be needed) will make us incrementally more positive".

Nomura piece discussed on here back in Feb came out with estimate fair value of around 19p even with assumed 15% dilution for a further equity raising.

I think there´s some American parochialism demonstrated in the article. CFU are in Oz that´s going to make it harder for them. Possibly, but other companies have overcome peripheral locations. Also. if economic muscle really shifts to Asia then Australia may have advantages.

IMO, analyst has taken a glass near empty view on all the risks as they apply to CFU. At this stage impossible to tell whether or not CFU will be a success (in tech, commercial or investment terms).

Nothing new in the piece to change my view that this is a speculative share. Certainly wouldn´t want to be betting my life savings on it.

 

21 June 2010
CSIRO Report confirms Large Carbon Savings from BlueGen Gas-to-Electricity Generator

Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited (AIM/ASX: CFU) – a leading developer of high efficiency and low emission electricity generation units for homes and other buildings – today announced that a report by CSIRO has confirmed the significant carbon savings from the company’s BlueGen gas-to-electricity generator.
CSIRO is the Australian Government national science agency and Australia’s pre-eminent research organisation.




http://www.cfcl.com.au/Assets/Files/20100621_CFCL_CSIRO_Report_ASX.pdf  

Die Gaspreise werden in Zukunft vermutlich auch relativ niedrig sein,
was für CFCL nur gut sein kann.

Ist zwar schon ein wenig älter der Link aber:
http://www.vdi-nachrichten.com/vdi_nachrichten/...6520&source=rss

 

 

Kurs sinkt....versteh ich nicht....  

Das geht gar nicht. Das nennt man nur so.

Wo ein kauf da auch ein Verkauf und umgekehrt. Wenn das ein oder andere überwiegt dient das dem Kaufinteresse und anderen Handelsmethoden.

Ende Q3 und Anfang Q4 ist eben noch was hin. Wenn das mal nicht noch unter 10ct rutscht.

Gruß  

deine UCTL Geschichte läuft aber auch nicht besser .  

Ich weiss. Ist ja noch nicht meine. Deshalb schrieb ich ja mal das ich es beobachte. Es muss noch klappen. Im Moment bei dem Umfeld ist es ein Risiko. Ich schaus mir halt an. Das wird eh nichts mehr dieses Jahr. Aber immer schön im Auge behalten. Wenn die soweit sind das es klappt (wenns klappt) dann ist es ne gute Geschichte.

Abwarten. Ich merk schon......

Geduld ist nicht jedermans Sache ;o)  

 

vestehe nicht warum die aktuelle PR ein Regelverstoß sein sollte.

anything personal?

 

Im Folgenden mal wieder eine interessante Meinung eines UK-Forumteilnehmers:

I agree that todays RNS is impossible to quantify.
If the agreement with NexTech is like the EoN agreement that offers potential in the future rather than now then perhaps the Market is right to give little value to this RNS.

However at a stage when CFU make no profit currently and have very little income, a payment for use of a CFU patent could be the way forward.

If chromium poisoning is a problem and CFU gets $X per unit that uses their technology could lead to massive future income.

Companies like Honeywell produce Gas valves that are in almost every domestic boiler for many many years.
Imagine how this gas valve has contributed to Honeywell&#39;s profits over the years?

What if every fuel cell used technology licenced from CFU?

It would be like being the Intel of the fuel cell market!

Revenue gained from every unit sold, not a profit for a product but for an idea or patent. No stock, no outlay and just a small team to protect the patent.
The investment in securing worldwide patents seems to already have been made.

Taking fuelcell&#39;s point I think that any measure that spreads CFU&#39;s technology by licencing is very positive. A gain for a fuelcell company on the stock market has an effect on their peers.
AFC was up substantially today against a heavily falling market as CFU were.
If they decided to use a CFU licenced technology in their product I would welcome it.

If Bluegen fails for some reason in the market but CFU patented technologies are sucessfully used by other companies this could see CFU survive and prosper regardless.

Stocacity annoyed many posters on this BB as did the other person who nam I cannot remember and cells before, but all these posters encouraged debate and stopped this BB becoming very quiet during the periods CFU did not release news.

There is no CFU versus Ceres versus AFC. All these companies will help build the fuelcell market. We need companies like Honeywell, Siemens, Bosch etc to start licencing products, parts components and selling them on.
Only they have the capabilities to manufacture on the scale required so that every user that wants a fuelcell can have one.

The factory in Germany looks very good but its really only producing for the initial market on a small scale.

I would expect the 2nd stage of products to be manufactured in China or Eastern Europe where the labour market is more competitive.

The future for CFU may notinvolve manufacturing but the factory may be used to produce prototypes on a large scale to client demands.

I think todays RNS is significant because if CFU received $1 for every fuelcell sold worlfwide it could grow into a massive market worth billions.

Exciting time to hold CFU shares. We have bluegen, we have the ceramic powder, we have 3 manufacturing facilities of some kind, we now have started to licence our technology. What next?

Remember high technology companies get us out of recession, not banks or oil companies or burger bars!

Good luck to all CFU holders, remember when this share does go up it does it quickly and unexpectedly.
The market is very ugly and bearish.
But hopefully next week or the week after market sentiment changes.

I look forward to this exciting phase.

Good luck to all CFU holders our time will come!

---

 

I agree that todays RNS is impossible to quantify.
If the agreement with NexTech is like the EoN agreement that offers potential in the future rather than now then perhaps the Market is right to give little value to this RNS.
However at a stage when CFU make no profit currently and have very little income, a payment for use of a CFU patent could be the way forward.
If chromium poisoning is a problem and CFU gets $X per unit that uses their technology could lead to massive future income.
Companies like Honeywell produce Gas valves that are in almost every domestic boiler for many many years.
Imagine how this gas valve has contributed to Honeywell&#39;s profits over the years?
What if every fuel cell used technology licenced from CFU?
It would be like being the Intel of the fuel cell market!
Revenue gained from every unit sold, not a profit for a product but for an idea or patent. No stock, no outlay and just a small team to protect the patent.
The investment in securing worldwide patents seems to already have been made.
Taking fuelcell&#39;s point I think that any measure that spreads CFU&#39;s technology by licencing is very positive. A gain for a fuelcell company on the stock market has an effect on their peers.
AFC was up substantially today against a heavily falling market as CFU were.
If they decided to use a CFU licenced technology in their product I would welcome it.
If Bluegen fails for some reason in the market but CFU patented technologies are sucessfully used by other companies this could see CFU survive and prosper regardless.
Stocacity annoyed many posters on this BB as did the other person who nam I cannot remember and cells before, but all these posters encouraged debate and stopped this BB becoming very quiet during the periods CFU did not release news.
There is no CFU versus Ceres versus AFC. All these companies will help build the fuelcell market. We need companies like Honeywell, Siemens, Bosch etc to start licencing products, parts components and selling them on.
Only they have the capabilities to manufacture on the scale required so that every user that wants a fuelcell can have one.
The factory in Germany looks very good but its really only producing for the initial market on a small scale.
I would expect the 2nd stage of products to be manufactured in China or Eastern Europe where the labour market is more competitive.
The future for CFU may notinvolve manufacturing but the factory may be used to produce prototypes on a large scale to client demands.
I think todays RNS is significant because if CFU received $1 for every fuelcell sold worlfwide it could grow into a massive market worth billions.
Exciting time to hold CFU shares. We have bluegen, we have the ceramic powder, we have 3 manufacturing facilities of some kind, we now have started to licence our technology. What next?
Remember high technology companies get us out of recession, not banks or oil companies or burger bars!
Good luck to all CFU holders, remember when this share does go up it does it quickly and unexpectedly.
The market is very ugly and bearish.
But hopefully next week or the week after market sentiment changes.
I look forward to this exciting phase.
Good luck to all CFU holders our time will come!  

was meint ihr? Die China-abstufung sollte doch nur eine kurze Korrektur gewesen sein!? 

 

 

Du hattest den falschen Link angegeben,
da kam man auf eine Seite wo es um Filme ging...

Den link den du vermutlich meintest ist:
http://www.cfcl.com.au/Assets/Files/...FCL_CFU_Nextech_29June2010.pdf



 

Jetzt ist der Chalif auch noch hier. Sagmal kannst du auch was anderes ausser Bashen?

Schaut euch alle bitte seine Posts an und er treibt nicht nur hier sein unwesen.

Bist gemeldet!