Banken in der Eurozone

Hedgefonds ziehen sich zurück, nachdem sie während des wilden März verprügelt wurden. CTAs lösen Positionen aus Gründen der Risikokontrolle auf: "Es gibt eine Menge Schmerz da draußen und die ganz große Frage, die wir uns jetzt stellen müssen, ist, wie viel von dem schnellen Geld bereits abgezogen wurde?"
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/...d-during-wild-march-3046628  

There are few things in finance that generate as much fear as over-the-counter derivatives: Bank for International Settlements put OTC derivative notionals at $632.2 trillion, or about seven times gross world product – the combined income of every nation on the planet. To put it another way, for every dollar paid, anywhere in the world, there are seven dollars of what legendary investor Warren Buffett has called “financial weapons of mass destruction”.
https://www.risk.net/derivatives/7956398/...y-warehousing-their-swaps
Deutsche Bank $42 Trillion Derivatives Book: A Snowflake Away From Financial Meltdown - DB's derivatives exposures are Over-The-Counter ("OTC") derivatives and therefore exposed to counterparty default risk.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/...ears-over-exposures-way-overblown  

überexponiert. Deswegen ist ihre Kernkapitalausstattung auch im Vergleich zu anderen Banken etwas niedriger.  

schon vor der Krise gegenüber anderen Banken erhöht. Einfach, weil die Bilanzsumme viel zu groß ist.  

Swedish bank shares attract short sellers amid commercial real estate fears
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/...tate-fears-74939116  

..."überraschend" über das Wochende. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/311.htm
Und die zentrale Frage ist, weshalb so plötzlich? Die Opec+ geht wohl von einem größeren Nachfrageeinbruch aus: "OPEC is taking pre-emptive steps in case of any possible demand reduction". concerns that a global banking crisis would hit demand
https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil-idTRNIKBN2VZ09C
 

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/...elt-AAA-Rating-article24027282.html

>#7819 "Wenn demächst die schön gebündelten und verpackten LBOs und NAVs mit den weiter steigenen Notenbankzinsen hochgehen, geht es los" ...

SVB Collapse Complicates Banks’ Efforts to Unload More Than $25 Billion of Junk Debt
Turmoil in banking, Twitter woes cloud picture for ‘hung’ buyout loans
https://www.wsj.com/articles/...than-25-billion-of-junk-debt-a19ae78d
JPMorgan’s Michele Warns on Risk Rally as 2023 Recession Certain. Veteran strategist sees junk spreads above 800 basis points.  He says investors are cleaning portfolios to get rid of risk.
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-weltzone-517296?page=124#jumppos3125  

> Schweden vor immensen Problemen am Immobilienmarkt - Warum Milliardenprobleme in Schweden Europa alarmieren sollten
> https://www.ariva.de/forum/...ngsfrage-472111?page=6931#jumppos173276

Nordic Banks Are the Most Exposed to Commercial Real Estate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/...-in-the-heart-of-europe
Swedish bank shares attract short sellers amid commercial real estate fears
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/...tate-fears-74939116  

ECB Macroprudential Bulletin: The growing role of investment funds in euro area real estate markets: risks and policy considerations

This article analyses the financial stability risks of investment funds active in euro area commercial real estate (CRE) markets. It finds that real estate investment funds (REIFs) have grown significantly in the past decade, and have a large market footprint in several euro area countries where the outlook for CRE markets has deteriorated sharply. In addition, REIFs are exposed to liquidity risk when they offer frequent redemptions, which could affect the stability of CRE markets. REIFs should therefore be subject to a common and comprehensive policy framework to reduce the liquidity mismatch and risks to financial stability.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/...07638376.en.html  

>https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/...ml/index.en.html

ECB Warns of Risks Posed By €1 Trillion Real Estate Funds: Funds investing in commercial property pose a threat to financial stability after growing significantly over the last decade, according to the European Central Bank. The net asset value of the real estate investment funds more than tripled to more than €1 trillion ($1.1 trillion) in the past 10 years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...trillion-real-estate-funds  

Commerzbank-Experte warnt vor trügerischer Sicherheit: Die Rezession wird kommen: Im Gegensatz zu zahlreichen Analysten, die 2023 eine Konjunkturbelebung erwarten, bleiben die Volkswirte der Commerzbank pessimistisch. Zu hoch seien die Belastungen der Realwirtschaft durch die Geldpolitik der Zentralbanken.
https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/...ion-wird-kommen-12295848

EZB warnt vor Billionen-Risiko bei Gewerbeimmobilienfonds
Die Sorgen auf dem Gewerbeimmobilienmarkt nehmen zu. Die EZB mahnt: Wenn zu viele Anleger Geld aus den Fonds abzögen, könne die Finanzstabilität gefährdet werden.
https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/...ds/29075554.html
 

Steigende Hypothekenzinsen belasten Eigentümer in ganz Europa
Die Zinsen steigen, die Preise brechen ein: In vielen Ländern müssen Haushalte steigende Kosten fürs Eigenheim tragen. Die Furcht vor einem Crash wächst.
https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/...-in-ganz-europa/29066088.html  

Finanzaufsicht macht Druck auf NordLB – Sparkassen blockieren Lösung
Die EZB fordert, dass die Bank ihre Risiken besser überwacht. Die angedachte Lösung des Problems ist jedoch teuer – und kostet die NordLB jetzt schon Tag für Tag Geld.
https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/...kieren-loesung/29075514.html  

> Current Banking Crisis "Is Not Over Yet" - Jamie Dimon Warns Of "Repurcussions For Years To Come"
> https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-weltzone-517296?page=125#jumppos3129

James Dimons' Letter to Shareholders: "However, it should be noted that regulations, the supervisory regime and the resolution regime currently in place did not stop SVB and Signature Bank from failing — and from causing systemwide issues. We should not aim for a regulatory regime that eliminates all failure but one that reduces the chance of failure and the odds of contagion. We should carefully study why this particular situation happened but not overreact. "
https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/...elations/2022/ar-ceo-letters.htm

Ja, ja, ... "...while mega institutions such as JP Morgan Chase & Co sought to convince some SVB customers to move their funds Thursday by touting the safety of their assets. Let us get this straight: the largest US commercial bank was actively soliciting the clients of one of its biggest competitors, and the 16th largest US bank, knowing full well deposit flight would almost certainly lead to the collapse of a bank which courtesy of fractional reserve banking, had only modest cash to satisfy deposit demands: certainly not enough to meet $42 billion in deposit outflows."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...ts-hours-leaving-it-negative-1bn  

Analysis: Grievances mount in Europe with future wealth in doubt
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/...re-wealth-doubt-2023-04-04/
Blackrock-Chef Larry Finks Jährlicher Brief über die „stille Krise“  der Altersvorsorge und Co.:
Larry Fink, Chef des weltweit größten Vermögensverwalters Blackrock, schreibt in seinem jährlichen Brief über die „stille Krise“ der Altersversorgung, Inflation, die Angst der Menschen
https://www.private-banking-magazin.de/...arry-fink-ueber-die-stille/
 

GLG Partners geht short beim Ex-Commerzbank Fond "Jupiter Fund Management" (Germany)
https://www.investegate.co.uk/...d-notice-of-agm/202303301430018242U/
https://www.defenseworld.net/2023/03/31/...30175-shares-of-stock.html  

Basel Committee to review recent bank and market developments - Risks and vulnerabilities to the global banking system
https://www.bis.org/press/p230323a.htm

Technical Amendment document to the Basel Framework relating to the:
-    Standardised approach to operational risk.
-    Disclosure standards for credit valuation adjustment risk.
-   Calculation of the score for the Trading Volume Indicator in the global systemically important bank (G-SIB) framework and related disclosure requirements.
-   Inclusion of insurance subsidiaries in the disclosure of the leverage ratio exposure measure in the G-SIB framework.
-   Countercyclical capital buffer and related disclosure requirements.
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d547.pdf  

Money is flying into cash, but where is it coming from?
https://thoughtful.purposeinvest.com/content/images/2023/04/4.PNG
Are investors starting to take chips of the table?
https://thoughtful.purposeinvest.com/content/images/2023/04/5.PNG
The economy will very likely slow, either a lot or a little. And markets do not appear to be priced for either scenario. Time for active defence
https://www.purposeinvest.com/thoughtful/active-defence

Deutsche Bank’s recession probability model
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fs3tAnxaEAIAPzz?format=jpg&name=small  

Interview with Anneli Tuominen, Member of the Supervisory Board of the ECB: What should we think about the recent turmoil in the banking markets? In this crisis it was once again surprising how easily bank share prices were derailed everywhere although, as you said, the situation of Silicon Valley Bank, for instance, was unique. Does it still surprise you how easily this sector can be pulled into a kind of psychological vicious circle?
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/...~ff3fe1816e.en.html  

Current Banking Crisis "Is Not Over Yet" - Jamie Dimon Warns Of "Repurcussions For Years To Come"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...n-warns-repurcussions-years-come  

>Schweden vor immensen Problemen am Immobilienmarkt - Warum Milliardenprobleme in Schweden Europa alarmieren sollten
>https://www.ariva.de/forum/...ngsfrage-472111?page=6931#jumppos173276

What Broke Sweden?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/...exposes-economic-divisions
Krise am Immobilienmarkt: Schwedische Banken geraten ins Visier von Shortsellern
Nach den Verwerfungen der vergangenen Wochen ist die Nervosität am Bankenmarkt groß. Wegen der akuten Schwäche des Immobilienmarkts wetten Hedgefonds nun auf einen Kursverfall schwedischer Geldhäuser.
https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/...n-shortsellern/29077048.html
Swedish bank shares attract short sellers amid commercial real estate fears
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-eurozone-472954?page=313#jumppos7834
Commercial real estate biggest risk for Swedish banks, central bank says
https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/...al-bank-says--42852755/  

IMF Report - Sweden: Financial System Stability Assessment: Systemic risks to the financial system arise from (i) high exposure of banks to the commercial real estate (CRE) sector; (ii) limited liquidity in corporate bond markets; (iii) high indebtedness of households and sensitivity to higher interest rates. The banking system is nearly three times 2021 GDP and is interconnected domestically and regionally.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/...ty-Assessment-530943
Finansinspektionen report: In Sweden, the commercial real estate sector is particularly exposed to rising interest rates and a weaker economy since the sector has high debt. Finansinspektionen (FI) makes the assessment that the already high risks in the sector have continued to increase.
https://www.fi.se/siteassets/stability-financial-system-221129.pdf
Swedish FSA proposes new risk weight floors for real estate exposure: Sweden’s Financial Supervisory Authority proposed to introduce new risk weight floors for bank loans to commercial properties, replacing the current system or risk management, it said in a statement.
https://www.reuters.com/article/...-economy-real-estate-idUKS8N34502P  

> Krise am Immobilienmarkt: Schwedische Banken geraten ins Visier von Shortsellern

The Swedish mortgage market: Small banks expanded their market shares amid low volumes, while many of the large banks reported minimal lending growth. In particular Länsförsäkringar Bank, Landshypotek Bank and Skandiabanken increased their market shares.
https://nordiccreditrating.com/insight/swedish-mortgage-market  

Most shorted in %: Samhällsbyggnadsbo. I Norden B (9.29 %)
https://shortnordic.com/index.php#sweden
Top Shareholders: Samhällsbyggnadsbo. I Norden B
https://corporate.sbbnorden.se/en/shareholders/
ETFs investiert in SAMHÄLLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB
https://ch.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/...ET-I-39435780/positionen/