Die besten Gold-/Silberminen auf der Welt
Nur so kann aktuell verhindert werden das der allgemeine Aktienmarkt nicht in einem nachhaltigen Bärenmarkt laufen wird. In dem dann vorgegaugelt wird, das es zu allgmeinen Aktien eigentlich keine Alternative mehr gibt.
Mit was wir aber auch nochmal rechnen könnnen ist folgendes. Wenn Corona mal kein Thema mehr sein wird bzw. der Hochpunkt überschritten sein wird und die Aktienmärkte noch nicht zusammengebrochen sind,(aktuell haben wir immer noch ein hohes Niveau) werden die Leute aus den amrikanischen Bonds rausgehen und werden warscheinlich die Aktien erstmal wieder hochkaufen, weil ja dann wider mehr gereist und konsumiert wird. Dann werden auch die Renditen der 10 jährigen Anleihe erstmal wieder steigen. In dieser Phase kann ich mir vorstellen wird Gold nochmals versucht stark nach unten zu drücken samt den Minen. Erst wenn die Erholungs und Nachholphase vorüber ist und dann wieder die offensichtlichen Probleme im Finanzsystem zu Tage kommen, wird der Goldpreis dann erst wieder steigen. In der Phase kann es echt sinnvoll sein seine Minen und die guten Explorer zu verkaufen, um Sie unten wieder einzusammeln. Ich gehe aber trotz heute davon aus, das wir bis dahin deutlich höher stehen werden als heute. Also für mich gibt es derzeit diese 2 Szenarien bezüglich Gold, Minen und Explorer.
Worüber ich aktuell aber überhaupt keinen Plan habe wegen Corona ist, wie wird sich Palladium/Rhodium und das Platin verhalten. Bin ja mit 4 Werten in dem Sektor investiert. Ich persönlich hoffe ja das sich die Preise bis zum Corona abflauen, irgendwie oben halten werden und die entsprechenden Minen und Explorer es nach der Coronakrise wieder mehr als weg machen werden. Wir haben hier von den Hochs schon leider ordentlich abgegben müssen. Hat hierzu jemand eine Idee oder Vorstellung wie es laufen könnte ?
Ist es nicht wahrscheinlich dass die Nachfrage nach diesen Metallen sehr bald gegen Null gehen wird? Ich denke der Verbrennungsmotor hat über kurz oder lang ausgedient und bei E-Auto gibt es keinen Kat. mehr. Hast Du da schon mal drüber nachgedacht? Für mich ist Palladium wie auch Platin ein Industriemetall wie Silber, die Anlageklasse betrachte ich da gar nicht.
Wer vorgibt, das zu wissen, ist vorsichtig ausgedrückt, ein Dummschwätzer.
Wenn wir gerade dabei sind, was passiert eigentlich, wenn die olympischen Spiele abgesagt werden. Oder noch schlimmer, was passiert, wenn die aus Gewinnsucht nicht abgesagt werden und sich jede Menge Sportler infizieren. Sportler sind übrigens überdurchschnittlich anfällig.
Am besten sieht man es in Südafrika, auch wenn die schon geschlossen haben.
Sibanye dort drüben mit 7,6 % im Plus gewesen und in New York wird Sie gerade verprügelt mit leicht abfallender Tendenz bei ca. minus 5,7 %. Das ist schon krass wie ich finde.
Deweiteren wird trotz Propaganda Benzin und Dieselautos noch weiter gebaut werden . Alleine bis in Südamerika, Mittelamerika, Afrika und in Teilen von Osteuropa und Asien(ist größer als China, Japan und Südkorea, Taiwan) die Infrastruktur für Elektroautos steht und diese Menschen sich solche Autos leisten können, werden noch sehr viele Jahre vergehen. Wer nicht mal eine ordnungsgemäße Gesundheitsversorgung hat, wird auch keine große Infrastruktur für Elektroautos bauen können. Die Masse in diesen Ländern werden noch Jahre konventionelle Autos fahren und hier bei uns in Europa wird es bezüglich der Menschen genauso sein. Nur die wo wirklich Geld haben oder hipp/grün sein wollen, werden sich diese Autos zulegen. Bis die Mehrheit hier Elektroautos fahren wird, werden mindestens noch 10 - 15 Jahre vergehen. Bis dahin wird auch mindestens das Palladium/Platin benötigt werden. Rhodium denke ich wird in den nächsten Jahren statt mit Palladium, dann mit Platin ersetzt werden.
Auf lange Sicht (20) gebe ich Dir aber recht. Da sehe ich es genauso. Außer es wird durch neue Anwendungen die wir noch nicht kennen, in dem gleichen Masse benötigt wie heute für die Benziner und Dieselautos. Das sehe ich aber aktuell noch nicht.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/...r-prices-after-amplats-plant-closure
https://seekingalpha.com/article/...eaming-companies-february-report
Precious Metals Royalty And Streaming Companies: The February Report
Mar. 6, 2020 2:53 AM ET4 comments
Includes: AEM, ATBYF, AUY, ELYGF, EMX, FNV, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GLDLF, MMX, MTA, NEM, NGD, OBNNF, OR, RGLD, SAND, SLV, SROYF, TCKRF, TECK, WPM
Peter Arendas
Long only, commodities, research analyst
3,911 followers)
Summary
The Precious Metals R&S Index declined by 7.76% in February.
The Precious Metals R&S Equally Weighted Index declined by 12.66% in February.
The best performance was experienced by Sailfish Royalty Corp. that recorded an almost 6% share price growth.
The biggest decline was experienced by Metalla Royalty & Streaming that lost more than 31% of its share price.
Precious metals royalty and streaming companies represent a very interesting sub-industry of the precious metals mining industry. They provide some leverage to the growing metals prices, similar to the typical mining companies; however, they are less risky in comparison to them. Their incomes are derived from royalty and streaming agreements. Under a metal streaming agreement, the streaming company provides an upfront payment to acquire the right to future deliveries of a predefined percentage of metal production of a mining operation.
The streaming company also pays some ongoing payments that are usually well below the market price of the metal. They can be set as a fixed sum (e.g., $300/toz gold) or as a percentage (e.g., 20% of the prevailing gold price), or a combination of both (e.g., the lower of a) $300/toz gold and b) 20% of the prevailing gold price). The royalties usually apply to a small fraction of the mining project production (usually 1-3%), and they are not connected with ongoing payments. They can have various forms, but the most common is a small percentage of the net smelter return (NSR). The NSR is calculated as revenues from the sale of the mined products minus transportation and refining costs.
To better track the overall performance of the whole sub-industry, I created a capitalization-weighted index (Precious Metals Royalty and Streaming Index) consisting of 11 companies. Later, based on the inquiries following the June report, I also introduced an equally-weighted version of the index. Both indices include the same companies and are calculated back to January 2019.
Source: Own processing
The combined weight of the big three (Franco-Nevada (FNV), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), Royal Gold (RGLD)) increased. As of the end of February, the three companies represented more than 92% of the market capitalization-weighted index. The weights of all of the small and mid-sized royalty and streaming companies declined. The only exception is Sailfish Royalty Corp. (OTCQX:SROYF). Its weight increased from 0.09% to 0.1%.
Source: Own processing
After an excellent December and a very good January, the precious metals royalty and streaming companies did much worse during the month of February. Only Sailfish Royalty Corp. experienced a positive month. Its share price increased by almost 6%. Ely Gold Royalties (OTCQB:ELYGF) remained flat. All the remaining 9 companies experienced share price declines. The biggest one was recorded by Metalla Royalty & Streaming (MTA). Its share price declined by more than 31% in February.
Very high losses were recorded also by Maverix Metals (MMX) and EMX Royalty Corporation (EMX), but also by Osisko Gold Royalties (OR). The most damage was caused during the last trading week and especially during the last trading day of February when the gold price declined strongly and pulled down the majority of the whole gold mining sector. Many companies were down by more than 10%. The extreme market volatility is related to the nervousness spurred by the coronavirus and its potential impacts on the global economy.
Source: Own processing
The gold price increased slightly in February. It started the month above $1,580/toz. On February 26, it peaked above $1,680/toz, only to end the month back down around $1,580/toz. The share price of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) decreased by 0.64% and the share price of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) decreased by nearly 8%. The gold and silver mining companies represented by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) booked huge losses too. The GDX share price declined by 9.6% and the GDXJ share price declined by more than 13%. The precious metals royalty and streaming indices had their worst month ever. The Precious Metals R&S Index declined by 7.76% and the Precious Metals R&S Equally Weighted Index declined even by 12.66%.
The February news
Although the earnings season was underway, the main driving force was the coronavirus in February. As the markets started to panic, gold prices started to soar to new multi-year highs. However, the precious metals royalty and streaming sector didn't reflect it. It was declining along with the broader stock market. And on February 28, when the gold price experienced a steep 3.5% decline, the royalty and streaming companies tanked. It is possible to say, that the company-related news had only a limited influence on the share prices in February.
Franco Nevada declared a quarterly dividend of $0.25 that will be paid on March 26. The record date is March 12. At the current share price, the annualized dividend yield equals 0.93%. The Q4 2019 financial results will be released on March 9.
Wheaton Precious Metals announced that it set a new record, as its attributable 2019 gold equivalent production climbed up to the 706,900 toz level. The original guidance was beaten by 16,900 toz of gold equivalent. The 2020 guidance envisages attributable production of 390,000-410,000 toz gold, 22-23.5 million toz silver and 23,000-24,500 toz palladium. The gold equivalent production is projected to be in the 685,000-725,000 toz range. The Q4 2019 financial results should be released on March 11.
Royal Gold released its Q4 2019 financial results on February 5. The company reported revenues of $123.6 million, operating cash flow of $78.3 million and net income of $41.3 million. More about Royal Gold's Q4 2019 financial results can be found here.
On February 13, Royal Gold announced that New Gold (NGD) released a new mine plan for its Rainy River mine. The new reserves contain 2.636 million toz gold and 6.266 million toz silver. The average annual gold production is expected at 289,000 toz gold, between 2020 and 2028. The information is important for Royal Gold, as it owns a 6.5% gold stream (to be reduced to 3.25% after 230,000 toz are delivered) and 60% silver stream (to be reduced to 30%, after 3.1 million toz are delivered), at ongoing payments of 25% of the prevailing spot price.
Osisko Gold Royalties was quite busy in February. On February 11, it announced the appointments of Frédéric Ruel as Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, Finance, Iain Farmer as Vice President, Corporate Development and Benoit Brunet as Vice President, Business Strategy.
On February 19, Osisko released its Q4 2019 financial results. The attributable gold equivalent production equaled 20,479 toz. Osisko generated revenues of $39.3 million and operating cash flow of $13.2 million. However, the net income was negative $119.5 million, due to huge impairment charges. More about Osisko's Q4 2019 financial results can be found here. Osisko also declared a Q1 2020 dividend of C$0.05. According to the recently released production guidance, Osisko's 2020 attributable gold equivalent production should be 82,000-88,000 toz.
On February 20, Osisko Gold Royalties announced that Osisko Mining (OTCPK:OBNNF) released a new resource estimate for its Windfall gold project. The volume of indicated resources increased by 60%, to 1.2 million toz gold at a gold grade of 9.1 g/t. The volume of inferred resources increased by 66%, to 3.9 million toz gold, at a gold grade of 8.4 g/t. Osisko Gold Royalties holds a 2-3% NSR royalty on the project.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND) released its Q4 2019 financial results too. The company sold 16,113 toz of gold equivalent, generating revenues of $24 million and operating cash flow of $15.7 million. The Q4 net income equaled $5.3 million. More about Sandstorm Gold's Q4 2019 financial results can be found here. The 2020 production guidance envisages production of 60,000-70,000 toz of gold equivalent.
Maverix Metals announced that in Q4, its attributable gold equivalent production equaled nearly 7,000 toz. The overall 2019 attributable production volume reached a new record high of 24,000 toz of gold equivalent. However, in 2020, a new record high is expected, as the guidance envisions 27,000-30,000 attributable gold equivalent toz.
Abitibi Royalties (OTC:ATBYF) provided an update regarding its royalties portfolio. The most important news was related to Agnico Eagle's (AEM) and Yamana Gold's (AUY) Canadian Malartic Mine. A new resource estimate was prepared for East Malartic and for Odyssey projects. Moreover, Agnico is considering to start mining East Malartic as soon as in 2023.
Metalla Royalty and Streaming announced that its board of directors has approved a monthly dividend of C$0.004 per share for March, April, and May. But what is more important, it also acquired a 2% NSR gold royalty on a portion of a large Nueva Union copper-gold project owned by Newmont (NEM) and Teck (TECK).
EMX Royalty Corporation invested $3.79 million in Ensero Holdings, a privately-held environmental consulting company focused on mine reclamation and implementation of remediation technologies. EMX acquired 7.5% of the company and preferred shares that should generate $7.24 million over the next 6-7 years.
On February 18, EMX announced the sale of three nickel-copper-cobalt projects to Pursuit Minerals. On February 25, EMX announced the acquisition of a 2% NSR royalty on the Kaukau palladium project located in Finland. On February 28, EMX announced the sale of its Swedish Tomtebo and Trollberget projects to District Minerals.
Sailfish Royalty announced the sale of its Almaden project to GoldMining (OTCQX:GLDLF) for C$1.15 million (one half in cash, one half in shares of GoldMining).
The March Outlook
The earnings season is almost over, only Franco-Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals are about to release their financial results (March 9 and March 11 respectively). As the first days of March show, the period of extreme volatility continues. The precious metals royalty and streaming sector erased a big part of the late February losses, however, given the current market conditions, the investors should be cautious.
By
Concoda -
March 4, 2020
During last week’s Coronavirus market sell-off, where global stock prices plunged more than 10%, you can assume investors are moving into the usual safe-havens: Government bonds, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc, among others, are rallying in unison.
There is, however, one asset class that’s behaving rather strangely: precious metals. Despite their popular safe-haven status, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium — priced in U.S Dollars — have fallen 5% or more from their highs. But why, in a period of mass panic and fear, are metal investors experiencing heavy losses?
The answer is volatility.
When markets undergo extreme selloffs, liquidity evaporates as participants flee, causing volatility to skyrocket. The Volatility Index — or the VIX for short — which tracks the expected one-day move in S&P500 stock prices is the best way to monitor such events: The higher the VIX, the more markets melt down.
In popular finance, the VIX has another nickname: the Fear Index which originates from the index displaying extreme readings when the stock market is in panic mode. Though, it’s important to remember that a higher reading equals higher volatility, not extreme fear as volatility can also rise in periods of extreme greed.
Recently, the VIX showed that the Coronavirus created panic within the financial system producing an illiquid market, however, stress levels rose gradually over a week before the actual sell-off. While the cause, whether fear or deeper technical issues, is still unknown, we do know it was a liquidity-related issue.
Six months prior to the Coronavirus spreading worldwide, the Federal Reserve, in response to a mini-crisis, provided extra funding to primary dealers in the repo markets. The central bank achieved this by injecting billions of dollars into the financial system, and the cheap money flowed throughout markets manifesting itself in speculative asset classes — stocks and high-yield bonds to name a few — creating a temporary credit bubble.
What’s interesting, though, is just before the market meltdown, the Fed suspended its repo operations removing vital liquidity from the system, suggesting that a major liquidity shortage created fear instead of the Coronavirus. Still, the saying goes, “narrative follows price” as illiquidity paired with virus headlines created the perfect storm, and the panic selling began.
Fear alone fails to explain why precious metals sold off, but a liquidity scare makes perfect sense as liquidations always occur when volatility spikes to record highs. When asset prices moving aggressively, highly levered investors are vulnerable — usually to a 100 percent or greater move in the VIX — triggering margin calls: a request from your broker asking you to deposit more money to cover trading losses, which leads to investors liquidating their high-quality assets such as gold and silver to cover any collateral damage.
According to Standard Chartered, preceding a crash, precious metals are the best-performing asset class making them a popular liquidation choice. A concrete example is the Financial Crisis of 2008 where $8 trillion of stock market wealth vanished, but gold also fell by over 20%, bottoming in November 2008 — as shown by the chart below.
Gold predicting the financial crisis, then selling off. — Created by the author
When you combine both high volatility and illiquidity with extremes in bullish metal sentiment, a collapse in precious metal prices soon follows. The “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade unwinds as markets have already priced in the crash, while other markets prone to speculative manias, such as stocks and high yield debt, tend to mask deteriorating fundamentals, which is exactly what happened in both the 2008 financial crisis and the recent market meltdown.
After this week’s turmoil, some investors will be questioning if precious metals are still classed as a hedge. Though markets are, first and foremost, leading indicators and the big moves occur before a meltdown takes place. Within a liquidity-driven environment, declining economic fundamentals and central banks responding with loose monetary policy are times when precious metals outperform, but not during the market crash itself — as you would expect.
Ironically, during a crisis, buying any element in the periodic table has proved to be one of the most unprofitable, short-term investments in recent times.
https://www.tradersmagazine.com/am/...-crash-during-market-meltdowns/
Heute wurden bis jetzt keine 14 tätigen Geschäfte abgeschlossen. Es wurden insgesamt 1 tätige Geschäfte(3Business Days) im Volumen von 92,537 Milliarden US Dollar getätigt. Das Volumen bleibt also heute nochmal sehr hoch. Bin mal gespannt ob es nächste Woche so weiter gehen wird. Die Wallstreet ersäuft ja diese Woche förmlich mit Bargeld. Da müssen ja viele Rechnungen bezahlt werden, weil die Indzies werden mal nicht hochgekauft, oder doch noch zum Schluss ?
Deal Date: Friday, March 06, 2020
Delivery Date: Friday, March 06, 2020
Maturity Date: Monday, March 09, 2020
Type of Operation: Reverse Repo
Auction Method: Fixed-Rate
Settlement: Same Day
Term of Operation - Calendar Days : 3 Days
Term of Operation - Business Days : 1 Day
Operation Close Time: 01:15 PM
Participating Counterparties: 8
Accepted Counterparties: 8
Results Amount ($B) Rate (%)
Collateral Type Submitted Accepted Award3 High Low
Treasury 2.930 2.930 1.00 N/A N/A
Deal Date: Friday, March 06, 2020
Delivery Date: Friday, March 06, 2020
Maturity Date: Monday, March 09, 2020
Type of Operation: Repo
Auction Method: Multiple Price
Settlement: Same Day
Term of Operation - Calendar Days : 3 Days
Term of Operation - Business Days : 1 Day
Operation Close Time: 08:30 AM
Results Amount ($B) Rate (%)
Collateral Type Submitted Accepted Stop-Out1 Weighted
Average2 High Low
Treasury 65.257 65.257 1.10 1.100 1.12 1.10
Agency .000 .000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Mortgage-backed 24.350 24.350 1.10 1.109 1.12 1.10
Total 89.607 89.607
Deal Date: Thursday, March 05, 2020
Delivery Date: Thursday, March 05, 2020
Maturity Date: Friday, March 06, 2020
Type of Operation: Reverse Repo
Auction Method: Fixed-Rate
Settlement: Same Day
Term of Operation - Calendar Days : 1 Day
Term of Operation - Business Days : 1 Day
Operation Close Time: 01:15 PM
Participating Counterparties: 2
Accepted Counterparties: 2
Results Amount ($B) Rate (%)
Collateral Type Submitted Accepted Award3 High Low
Treasury .850 .850 1.00 N/A N/A
Warum werden wir wahrscheinlich schon bald sehen, wenn diese Schuldner bankrott gehen.
In den USA herrscht auch die Besorgnis, dass sich das Virus weiter ausgebreitet haben könnte als derzeit gemeldet wird. Bisher endeten elf der 154 bekannten Fälle mit dem Tod des Patienten. Wenn die durchschnittliche Sterblichkeitsrate tatsächlich bei 3,4 Prozent liegt, müsste es demnach 324 Coronavirus-Fälle im Land geben, von denen dann 170 unbekannt wären.
Es gibt zwar viele Gründe, warum ein COVID-19-Fall unerkannt bleiben könnte, doch der wichtigste ist der, dass Arztbesuche für Amerikaner sehr teuer sind. Personen, die auf den Coronavirus getestet wurden, mussten Berichten zufolge bis zu 3.200 Dollar zahlen.
Zudem war die Reaktion der staatlichen, bundesstaatlichen und lokalen Regierungen bestenfalls improvisiert und desorganisiert. Die CDC konnten nicht im großen Stil Test-Sets an Krankenhäuser im ganzen Land verschicken. Bisher wurden in den USA nur 472 Tests für COVID-19 durchgeführt, in Italien waren es 23.345, in Südkorea 109.591, in China Dutzende Millionen. Die CDC beharren darauf, dass Krankenhäuser und Labors in den USA ihre eigenen Verfahren und Ausrüstungen für entsprechende Tests benutzen statt derjenigen der Weltgesundheitsorganisation. Diese Vorgabe hat die Fähigkeit der Mediziner in den USA, das Coronavirus zu entdecken und ihre Patienten und sich selbst zu schützen, praktisch vollkommen gelähmt.
Typisch für die Kommentare in den sozialen Medien in den USA war die Äußerung des Twitter-Nutzers Matt Stoller: Habe gerade mit Arzt in Notaufnahme gesprochen, der Fälle sieht, in denen er sich zu 99 Prozent sicher ist, dass sie #Coronavirus sind. Negativ für Grippe, Reisen in jüngerer Vergangenheit, arbeitet an Flughäfen. Test nicht erlaubt. Patienten gehen weiter zur Arbeit, weil sie sich ohne klare Diagnose nicht krankschreiben lassen können. Andere Notfallärzten berichten das gleiche.
Abgesehen von der Ausbreitung gibt es inzwischen Beweise, dass sich das Virus zu unterschiedlichen Typen entwickelt hat. Am Dienstag erschien in der Fachzeitschrift National Science Review eine Studie, laut der genetische Marker darauf hindeuten, dass sich eine Untergruppe des Virus in Wuhan aus einem weniger aggressiven s-CoV- zu einem leichter übertragbaren und tödlichen l-CoV-Stamm entwickelt hat. Die Ausbreitung des l-CoV-Stamms wurde durch die Quarantäne in der Provinz Hubei größtenteils eingedämmt.