wenn es einen amerikanischen Angriff auf den Irak

gibt, dann wird der noch vor November ausgefuehrt.
In der Tuerkei gibt es November Neuwahlen, also wird die Zeit danach fuer die Amerikaner nicht in Frage kommen.
Es bleiben also noch etwas mehr als 3 Monate...  

Existiert die Türkei nach den Wahlen nicht mehr?

Gruß,
T.  

http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,755035,00.html
oder waren es die Kriegsgegner im Pentagon,die sie rausschmuggelten

To some it was proof of cynical manipulation. In recent weeks there has been a plunge in public confidence in the ability of the President and his party to manage the economy and the administration's own personal honesty.
'It's certainly strange that the more the finance scandals approach the White House, the harder and sharper the plans for an attack on Iraq,' said one staffer in the office of Democrat congressman Henry Waxman of California last week.
Critics of Bush point out that the battle plan was leaked just as the sleaze scandals reached a climax and began to implicate the President himself.
But The Observer has been told that the leak did not come from the White House. Instead it came from within the Pentagon, from the office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the top professional soldiers and planners who drew it up in the first place. That opens up another possible angle entirely.
It may well be that the leak was from soldiers opposed to a war the President and their civilian political masters, led by Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, want them to fight
This is an exact echo of the Pentagon view under President George Bush Snr 11 years ago, when Colin Powell - then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - opposed the Gulf war, but was bullied into fighting it by Bush and his then Defence Secretary, Dick Cheney.
Powell and Cheney have despised each other ever since. Powell is known to be opposed to another war against Iraq. According to senior officials serving under Powell at the State Department, as well as others in the Pentagon, the leaks are part of a sophisticated campaign to raise the stakes before a war could be declared with their approval. Thus another mid-week leak suggesting there was no casus belli that would allow America to commence hostilities. Saddam would have - for instance, say officials - to invade a neighbour, re-commence the genocide against Shia Muslims or Kurdish minorities or field a nuclear weapon.
'There has to be a defining moment,' said one State Department official, '...which is a recognised international offence in order to justify an attack under the [United Nations] charter.'
The Iraqi Foreign Ministry was swift to point out that it had not been to blame for the collapse nine days ago of the talks with the UN over the readmission of inspectors searching for the nuclear, biological and chemical weaponry Saddam is suspected of holding - or trying to build. The Iraqis said they were willing to talk again and offered to provide the Americans with information about airmen shot down during the Gulf war. Washington dismissed the offer as a 'PR stunt'.
But if Powell and his allies are trying to bluff the Iraqis into concessions while simultaneously undercutting the hawks in the administration it is a dangerous game. Rumsfeld and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz have for a year been saying - with Presidential backing - that they have all the justification they need for an attack or invasion. The leaks could play straight into their hands

http://world.altavista.com/  Übersetzer  

die bush regierung wird einen angriff ohne Unterstuetzung der tuerkei (militaerbasen...) kaum durchfuehren. Waehrend der Wahlen wird das nicht moeglich sein. Und das Risiko, das nach den Wahlen eine Regierung steht die die US angriffe nicht mehr unterstuetzt, wird man auch kaum eingehen.
Also wird die Zeit knapp...  

US-Angriffe nicht unterstützen? Gibt's da schon Aussagen?
Ich denke, mit den richtigen Argumenten (Du verstehst!?!) wird sich da jede türkische Regierung bereit erklären...

Gruß,
T.  

 

es ist eine Frage des Risikos - und wenn es einen Angriff geben wird, ist die wahrscheinlichkeit hoch das es vor November sein wird. Ich selber glaube (und hoffe) nicht das es soweit kommt.
mod, soweit ich weiss hat das Militaer in der Tuerkei eine sehr starke Hand - das sie dort quasi regiert bezweifel ich. Das Militaer ist maechtig - wie fast in jedem Land.
Vergisst nicht, es kann durchaus ein Monat dauern bis eine neue Regierung gebildet wird. In einer solchen Schwaechephase wird ein Angriff kaum grosse Unterstuetzung kriegen. Soweit meine Meinung...

Gruss,
Dr J'P