Der USA Bären-Thread
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By Tony Crescenzi
Street.com Contributor
6/7/2007 12:16 PM EDT
It would not surprise to see the 10-year's yield move to 5.25% or higher. I have noted for quite some time how rare it is for Treasuries to trade below the fed funds rate, now 5.25%.
Over the past 18 years, there were only three occasions where the 10-year's yield dipped below the funds rate -- only when an interest rate cut was less than six months away. With the most recent and fourth occasion where the 10-year dipped below the funds rate, investors (since last summer) were expecting the Fed to cut rates sometime over a six-month horizon.
The rule, then, is this: Treasury yields always trade at or above the fed funds rate unless a rate cut is expected within a six-month time frame. This rule is now dictating the direction of Treasury yields, with yields adjusting to changed expectations over the outlook for monetary policy.
D.h. die 10-jährigen preisen die Chance auf Zinssenkungen der Fed, die der Aktienrallye in USA bisher Beine (und Liquidität) verlieh, zunehmend aus.
Jemand ein paar "Scheine" zur Auswahl ?
Nicht das es jetzt irgendwie wichtig wäre, aber kann ich das selbst entscheiden oder was ist das ?!
Der Trend ist abwärts, das wird immer klarer. Gegen den Trend zu spekulieren ist sehr riskant, davon können wir dir hier im Thread ein Liedchen singen.
Bist du der Meinung, es geht wieder aufwärts würde ich eine Beruhigung der Lage abwarten.
unteren BB aufgesetzt.
Kleine Gegenreaktion sollte mindestens anstehen nach 50Punkten abwärts dabei sollte
möglichst der Bereich bei ca. 1520 aus Bärensicht halten.
(mittleres BB im Daily bei 1517+braune TL/ über der blauen TL ist Bullenland)
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wenn UML rot nicht hält plumbs und noch mal 50 points
__________________________________________
Es wiederholt sich ununterbrochen an der Wall - Street
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Glaube morgen zwar noch nicht sofort an den Test der horizontalen Unterstützung bei 1460, aber so wie omei es eingezeichnet hat, dürfte es hinkommen. Wenn die 1480 erreicht werden, kann man mal kurz einen Long-Trade wagen.
Die Abwärtsdynamik ist aber vorhanden. Scheinbar haben die Amis nun auch bemerkt, das Inflation und ne eher maue Konjunktur bei Risiken im Immo-Markt nicht so gut harmonieren.
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Handelsverlauf da wir Intraday(alle Zeitebenen) auf der letzten Rille laufen und der Abverkauf hat nicht so panikartig wie im Feb. stattgefunden und deshalb kann es zwar noch ein paar Pünktchen Intraday!!! gehen (ca1485) aber spätestens danach gibt es eine Erhohlung kurzfristig bevor ne 2. Welle kommt.mM
Außerdem sollte man den Verfall nächste Woche nicht vergessen da oft
die Woche davor schon Positionierungen stattfinden(+FutureKontraktwechsel man achte
aufs Volumen YM07M bzw.YM07U gestern/heute)
Hier mal der Intraday Mai06-Chart vom SP und hier gabs nach den ersten 3 roten Tagen
eine kurzfristige Stabilisierung(1Tag) was natürlich keine Garantie für Freitag ist.
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Der Bondmarkt glaubte, dass sich die Fed zwischen den Gespenstern von Abschwung durch die Housing-Krise einerseits und zu hoher Inflation andererseits für weitere Geldaufblähung entscheiden würde, um die US-Wirtschaft aus der sich andeutenden Krise zu führen.
Gestern brachte eine Erklärung des renommiertesten US-Bond-Managers, Bill Gross von Pimco, die endgültige Wende, als er einen Bären-Markt für Bonds ausrief. Seine Kommentare brachten Bonds, Aktien und EUR/USD in freien Fall - wobei die Rendite der 10-jährigen auf über 5 % hochschoss (Chart unten). Die Zinskurve ist nun fast gar nicht mehr invertiert, und die Erwartung zukünftiger Fed-Zinssenkungen ist nahezu ausgepreist. Der Bondmarkt hatte Bernanke, der immer wieder betont hatte, die Zinsen wegen der zu hohen Inflation nicht senken zu wollen/können, lange nicht geglaubt. Doch nun haben die Bond-Bullen kapituliert.
Damit dürfte die Ära des billigen Geldes, die auch den Private-Equity-Wahnsinn finanzierbar machte, sich nun langsam dem Ende nähern. Die steigenden Zinsen drücken auch auf die diskontierten zukünftigen Firmengewinne. Nach dem Fed-Modell, dass das Aktien-KGV mit dem Renten-KGV vergleicht, sind Aktien nun schon wieder teuer: Wenn die 10-jährigen bei 5,25 % notierten, liegt das Renten-KGV 100/5,25 = 19,05. Ähnlich hoch liegen das "offizielle" KGV des DOW und des SP-500, das allerdings auf Gewinnerwartungen basiert, die sich im jetzt verschlechterten Zinsumfeld kaum realisieren lassen dürften. Die FTD beziffert im folgenden Artikel das "normalisierte" KGV der US-Aktien mit 23,5. Daraus ergibt sich bei einem Renten-KGV von 19,05 eine Überbewertung der US-Aktien von 23,4 %.
Fair bewertet wäre der DOW also erst bei etwa 11.000 (aktuell: 13.300)
Dies schreibt die FTD/Das Kapital zum aktuellen DAX- und US-KGV:
Das Kapital
Das Dax-KGV sagt fast gar nichts
Den meisten Anlegern ist intuitiv bewusst, dass mit dem KGV wenig anzufangen ist, wenn die Gewinne einer Firma oder einer Volkswirtschaft im Keller sind. Den wenigsten ist allerdings klar, dass das auch im umgekehrten Fall gilt, dann nämlich, wenn die Gewinne auf zyklischen Spitzenmargen beruhen.
Würden, um ein Beispiel zu machen, die Gewinne im Dax auf das trostlose Niveau der frühen 2000er-Jahren zurückfallen - etwa wegen einer Rezession -, notierte der Index plötzlich mit einem KGV von 50. Niemand würde im diesem Falle ernsthaft ein angemessenes KGV von 15 postulieren - respektive einen fairen Wert von 2250 Zählern, der sich eben dann ergäbe, wenn man den unterstellten Rezessionsgewinn schlicht mit 15 multipliziert.
Ebenso abenteuerlich ist es indessen, einmal erreichte Spitzenmargen einfach in die Zukunft fortzuschreiben, wie es derzeit geschieht. In Europa sind Rentabilitätsdaten dünn gesät. Als Indiz mag jedoch dienen, dass der Anteil der Unternehmens- und Vermögenseinkommen am deutschen Volkseinkommen zuletzt sogar noch eine Spur größer war als im Hoch Anfang der 70er. Seit dem Tief von 24,9 Prozent 1980 ist er nunmehr auf satte 35,4 Prozent gestiegen. Der "Gewinnanteil" bewegt sich damit um ganze sechs Prozentpunkte über dem Durchschnitt seit 1970. In den USA liegt die Gewinnspanne der Kapitalgesellschaften um fast die Hälfte über dem Mittel seit 1970. Bei "normaler" Rentabilität notierten US-Aktien also mit einem KGV von 23,5.
Irgendwo in dieser Gegend dürfte auch das "normalisierte" KGV in Deutschland liegen. Der aus demografischen Gründen zu befürchtenden Verknappung des Faktors Arbeit zum Trotz und in dem ökonomischen Irrglauben, die Firmen könnten von nun an für immer das fast Doppelte der Kapitalkosten einfahren - etwa wegen der Globalisierung -, haben die Anleger es also längst etwas zu weit getrieben. Ähnlich wie Anfang der 70er setzen sie darauf, dass die alten Margenrisiken - Wettbewerb, Regulierung, Angebotsschocks, Rezession, Überhitzung, Überinvestition, Inflation, Deflation - in Zukunft keine Rolle mehr spielen. Zwischen Anfang 1970 und 1982 war der MSCI Deutschland real um gut die Hälfte gefallen.
Dazu muss es diesmal nicht kommen. Dennoch haben die Investoren völlig aus dem Blick verloren, dass Aktien an Umsatz, Buchwert, Cashflow oder Dividenden gemessen extrem teuer geworden sind. Und das gilt trotz der niedrigen Realzinsen, der Quelle der Hausse, die langsam zu versiegen droht.
CHART: Rendite der 10-jährigen US-Staatsanleihen
sc.png
Aber wir wollen nicht hämisch sein, wichtig ist jetzt von der Lage bestmöglich zu profitieren. Ich gebe zu, mir ist das bislang (fast) nicht gelungen, dafür war der Abverkauf zu schnell und meine Hosen nach der monatelangen teuren Gegenshorterei zu voll.
Da ich Montag und Diestag aus beruflichen Gründen nur abends handeln kann hoffe ich heute auf eine Gegenreaktion über die 7600. Sollte die, obwohl wahrscheinlich, ausbleiben sieht es aber düster aus, denn dann wird der Abverkauf noch ganz andere Tiefen sehen.
Was meint ihr Mitbären, was ist eure Strategie?
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
6/7/2007 4:15 PM EDT
It was a sobering day for the bulls as the market beast dished out a little humility to the dip-buyers who have been taking him for granted for a while now.
The inability to bounce today was certainly a negative, but the horrendous breadth that hit 10 to 1 negative on the NYSE at one point today and the heavier volume made things even more painful. This wasn't just some idle profit-taking. It was aggressive and broad-based selling, which smacks of a change in market character.
Perhaps this sudden concern over rising rates and faltering bonds will be shrugged off like the other worries that have popped up during this long rally. But interest rates really go to the heart of one of the key market-drivers. The liquidity and cheap money that have helped drive the acquisitions that have fueled the market are threatened if rates continue to rise.
Bill Gross of Pimco, the largest bond manager in the world, added further weight to the idea that we are moving to a rising interest rate environment by becoming negative on bonds for the first time in 25 years.
Gross has not done too well with his market predictions such as the DJIA going to 5000, but the man knows bonds and I'm sure it's a bit unsettling to many to hear that he is looking for further increases in rates.
The market ended the day at the lows, and the mood is definitely dark. We are likely to get some sort of bounce after this intense selling, but the likelihood that the trend is turning down has now increased tremendously. Proceed with caution.
PS. alle die jetzt noch investiert sind, rechnen mit einer technischen gegenbewegung ;-)
Und die die noch nicht short sind hoffen auf eine.
mfg
ath
Die Kernfrage ist aus meiner Sicht:
Wann wirst du deine bärengewinne mitnehmen? ( du bist repräsentativ, genau wie ich )
Ich glaube nicht, daß die Bären heute verkaufen werden. Und daher glaube ich an den Trend..... aber nicht mehr lange
regards
Fred
US-Produktivitätssteigerung des 1. Quartals wie befürchtet mager
Am Mittwoch kam in den USA die 2. und letzte Schätzung zur Produktivität des 1. Quartals auf den Tisch. Das Überraschende war eigentlich vor allem, dass die im Vorfeld geäußerte Erwartung der Experten punktgenau getroffen wurde: Nach ursprünglich vor vier Wochen geschätzten +1,7% lautete die endgültige Zahl nun wie erwartet nur noch +1,0%. Dabei wurden die Lohnstückkosten, zuvor als so erfreulich niedrig gefeiert, markant von +0,6% auf +1,8% korrigiert.
Das wichtige an diesen Daten ist die Relation zu dem "mehr" an Produktion in Relation zum "mehr" an Kosten. Solange die Produktivität steigt zeigt das, dass sich das Verhältnis von Output zu Input verbessert. Das ist grundsätzlich also gut. Dabei kann dies aber auf zwei Arten geschehen. Entweder durch Rationalisierung des Produktionsprozesses oder billigere Rohstoffe einerseits oder durch sinkende Lohnkosten andererseits. Der Umstand, dass die Lohnstückkosten, also die Relation Lohnkosten zu hergestellten Gütern, um immerhin +1,8% stieg, zeigt, dass der Faktor Arbeit in jedem Fall teurer wurde als der Output steigen konnte. Und das ist eher ungünstig.
Bereits im vierten Quartal lagen die Lohnstückkosten ungewöhnlich hoch und steigen weiter. Nicht wie eine Rakete, sicher, aber sie steigen. Was die Investoren aus diesen - nun natürlich letztlich auf einen schon eine Weile zurückliegenden Zeitraum verweisenden - Daten mitnahmen war: Der Faktor Lohnkosten bleibt ein Thema und dies für die Inflationsentwicklung über steigende Löhne einerseits und als belastender Kostenfaktor für die Unternehmen andererseits.
US-Ölvorräte: Die Lage bessert sich, aber nicht genug!
Am Mittwoch um 16:30 Uhr unserer Zeit kamen dann die wöchentlichen US-Lagerbestände im Ölsektor dran. Während die Bestände für Rohöl nahezu unverändert blieben (+0,1 Millionen Barrel, wie erwartet) stiegen die Bestände bei Heizöl (+1,9 Millionen Barrel, Prognose +0,9) und vor allem bei Benzin (+3,5 Millionen Barrel, Prognose +1,6) deutlich an.
Dass sich die Rohölvorräte dabei kaum veränderten, ist erklärbar. Was reinkommt, wird zu Benzin raffiniert. Denn hier war die größte Versorgungslücke entstanden, nachdem in den Wochen zuvor ungewöhnlich viele Raffinerien ausgefallen und so Engpässe entstanden waren. Das war einer der Gründe, weshalb die Benzinpreise in den USA so extrem gestiegen waren. Doch wenngleich das Auffüllen der Bestände eine gewisse Beruhigung am Markt erzeugte, kam dennoch zugleich die Frage auf: reicht das?
In der Berichtswoche fiel die Kapazitätsauslastung der US-Raffinerien, die nach einem spürbaren "Durchhänger" wieder gut über 90% gestiegen war, schon wieder um -1,5% auf 89,6% zurück. Die Sorge ist nun, dass die unter dem Strich alten und veralteten US-Anlagen nicht imstande sein werden, den höheren Bedarf zur Urlaubssaison - und das ggf. bei Liefer- und Produktionsausfällen durch die anstehende Hurrikan-Saison - zu befriedigen.
Die Unruhe steigt mit einem Blick auf die Preisdifferenz zwischen dem in den USA verwendeten Crude-Oil (vor allem Western Texas Intermediate WTI) und dem Nordsee-Öl Brent. Denn wenn die eigene Produktion nicht ausreicht, würde man das - deswegen und wegen des erhöhten Bedarfs in Europa durch stärkeres Wirtschaftswachstum ohnehin im Preis klar gestiegenen - deutlich teurere Brent importieren müssen, was die Benzinpreise zum Sommer hin noch mehr antreiben würde.
Die Konsequenz folgte auf dem Fuße: Das US-Öl WTI folgte dem Nordsee-Brent mit ein paar Wochen Verspätung und markierte gestern am Nachmittag mit in der Spitze 67,40 Dollar neue Jahreshochs. Noch ist die sehr markante Charthürde bei 66,40 nicht nachhaltig und signifikant überschritten. Aber wenn sich dieser Ausbruch in den kommenden ein, zwei Handelstagen verstetigen sollte, sind schnell 68-70 Dollar drin.
Und Sie sehen im Chart, dass der laufende Aufwärtstrendkanal, vor wenigen Tagen noch fast nach unten verlassen, aktuell in seiner oberen Begrenzung Platz bis 73 Dollar birgt. Ein Anlaufen solcher Levels könnte den momentan wankenden Aktienmarkt zum kippen bringen!
US-Nettokreditaufnahme der privaten Haushalte dünnt sich aus
Im Zuge der bewegten Börsen ging die letzte Zahl nahezu unter. Am Donnerstag um 21:00 Uhr unserer Zeit kam die Nettokreditaufnahme der privaten US-Haushalte für April auf den Tisch. Nach dem rasanten Anstieg der Verschuldung um über 13 Milliarden im März wurde ein erneutes dickes Plus von 6,0 Milliarden erwartet. Doch mit +2,6 Milliarden blieb die Neuverschuldung deutlich unter den Erwartungen.
Wie üblich führt das in eine zweigeteilte Interpretation. Auf der einen Seite ist dies zu begrüßen, da die Schuldenlast der US-Bürger ohnehin die Grenzen des auf lange Sicht zu stemmenden überschritten hat. Aber für den kurzfristigen Betrachter bleibt der negative Aspekt, dass diese geringe Zunahme der Kredite bedeuten kann, dass die erhoffte Intensivierung des für die USA essenziellen Konsumwachstums nicht stattfinden könnte.
© Ronald Gehrt
Quelle: Auszug aus dem Newsletters "Daily Observer"
http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyid=4594
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BEING STREET SMART By Sy Harding
NO SAFE HAVENS! June 8, 2007.
There were no safe havens for investors this week.
The stock market gave back six weeks of previous gains in just three days. The catalyst for the sell-off was stronger than forecast economic numbers, and a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke in which he said the Fed expects the slowing economy will recover some in coming quarters, but that inflationary pressures remain a problem.
Bernanke's speech contained nothing new. That was exactly what the Fed has been saying in its monthly FOMC announcements since last fall. But, the stock market had not paid any attention before. This time it listened. The Fed's worries about inflation, that those worries might cause the Fed to raise interest rates, took over.
The decision of the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in Europe added fuel to the fire. European markets plunged as much as 2% the day of that decision.
And from then on it was more of the same, with markets in Europe, Latin America, and the U.S. falling further in tandem with each other on Wednesday and Thursday. The markets in Japan and Hong Kong caught up with the rest on Thursday night, each tumbling almost 300 points.
So international markets also did not provide a safe haven.
The three-day plunge of 410 points on the Dow was a bit too much so quickly, and bargain hunters jumped in on Friday to help the market bounce back from Thursday's low. But I doubt that the 3% three-day correction was the end of downside.
Meanwhile, for many centuries gold has been the traditional safe haven in times of rising inflation. But it was also no safe haven this week. Gold tumbled right along with the stock market, plunging $25 an ounce, or 3.7% for the week.
Bonds were no safe haven either. Disabused not only of the hope that the Fed will cut interest rates to re-stimulate the slowing economy, but alarmed that the Fed might even raise rates to try to ward off inflation, bonds suffered one of their largest weekly declines ever.
So the big debate now is whether this week was only a brief pothole in the road of the running bull, or the beginning of a larger decline.
As always, there are sound arguments on both sides of the question.
My own expectation is that there is more downside to go. My argument is based on two key points. The first is based on technical analysis. Having gone for one of the longest periods ever without even a normal 10% correction, the major market indexes are overbought above their 200-day moving averages to a degree that has always resulted in a correction at least back down to test the support at the moving average. The Dow's 200-day moving average is at 12,385. That's about 1,000 points lower, and would be a 10% correction from the Dow's recent high.
However, it is not difficult to come up with a lower projection. The market has only become this over-extended above its 200-day m.a. seven times since the 1990s bull market top in 2000. Each time, the correction that followed did not end until the Dow was at least equally oversold beneath the moving average. Were that to happen, the decline would be to 11,100. That would be a correction of 18%. As severe as that sounds, it would not be a bear market, which is defined as a decline of 20% or more.
My other reason for expecting the downside has more to go than the decline seen this week, has to do with the market's seasonality.
The market has a very long history of making most of its gains each year in its 'favorable' season of October to May, and suffering most of its serious declines in its 'unfavorable' season. The favorable season has ended.
It doesn't happen that the market has a serious correction in its unfavorable season every year, but it does happen so consistently that over the long-term it pays well to factor the pattern into investing strategies.
Another seasonal consideration is that when the market does have problems in its unfavorable season, the ultimate low is most frequently not seen until September or October.
So a scenario that would fit in with the current overbought condition, and the seasonal expectations, might be to expect an initial decline now of 10% or so, followed by a summer rally, and then a second leg down to a lower low by September or October, just before the next favorable season signal is received.
Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., DeLand, FL, publisher of The Street Smart Report Online at www.streetsmartreport.com
Sollten sich die Thesen bewahrheiten, hätte der US-Aktienmarkt diesen Trend erfolgreich vorweggenommen - obwohl er eigentlich auf das falsche Pferd gesetzt hatte: Motor der Aktien-Rallye war bislang die Erwartung von Fed-ZinsSENKUNGEN. Die hat jetzt aber der Bondmarkt komplett ausgepreist, was wiederum die jüngsten Schwäche im US-Aktienmarkt auslöste. Behält Chandler (tendenziell ein Bulle) Recht, dann ist diese Schwäche jedoch nur ein Luftholen im Uptrend; US-Aktien dürften dann auf weitere Rekordjagd gehen.
Und der Dollar dürfte wieder unter 1,30 EUR fallen, weil sich die Zinsschere zum Euro wegen der erwarteten US-Zinserhöhungen nicht weiter schließen wird (was wiederum Motor für die starke Euro-Long-Speku der letzten Monate war...) - und weil eine insgesamt sich stabilisierende US-Wirtschaft das Vertrauen ausländischer Anleger wieder herstellt. Nicht zuletzt führte der schwache Dollar dazu, dass das US-Handelsbilanzdefizit letzte Woche deutlich geringer als erwartet ausfiel. Das Haushaltsdefizit wiederum verringerte sich durch höhere Steuereinnahmen - wie auch in Deutschland.
Economy
The Investment Climate Has Changed
By Marc Chandler
Street.com Contributor
6/8/2007 4:58 PM EDT
There has been a significant change in perceptions of the investment climate. Many participants now recognize that far from slipping into a recession, the world's biggest economy is accelerating. Rather than the prospect of lower interest rates in the U.S., for the first time in a year my warning that the Federal Reserve may still need to raise rates is increasingly becoming mainstream.
After the interest rate adjustment, which is well under way, stronger U.S. growth is likely to prove positive for the global economy and especially for the emerging markets. The driver has changed. Previously, investors were eager to buy emerging markets and other higher-risk assets and put on carry-trade-type strategies on the belief that a rate cut was just around the corner.
Going forward, the return to trend growth in the U.S. may still support the same investment themes. Many countries still depend on the U.S. to absorb their excess production. Stronger U.S. demand is likely to offset the impact of higher interest rates.
U.S. 10-year yields have risen about 20 basis points over the past week and a little more than 50 basis points over the past month. Some observers are concluding that the old Greenspan conundrum finally has been resolved: Why would long-term bond yields remain so low even as the FOMC was persistently, gradually raising interest rates?
Believing that the rise in U.S. yields now resolves the conundrum may lead to a more pessimistic outlook. After all, it would follow then that the rise in U.S. interest rates significantly alters the underlying incentive structure and will spur the market to price risk more in accordance with the models that officials seem to refer to when they talk about the market's mis-pricing of risk.
There is an alternative view. It begins with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's explanation of Greenspan's conundrum.
Bernanke's view doesn't emphasize a U.S.-centric narrative or even a policy-centric narrative. Rather, he discusses the implications of what he called surplus savings. Many countries' savings, especially East Asian nations and oil-producing nations, are in excess of what the domestic capital markets can readily absorb. The U.S. and, to a much lesser extent, Europe absorb those savings.
Of course, record corporate profits not just in the U.S. but in Europe, Japan and many emerging-market countries allow capital expenditures to be financed from retained earnings to a large extent. That may have helped reduce a source of demand for capital. At the same time, the record corporate earnings have often translated to greater tax revenue and helped reduce government borrowing costs. This has, for example, produced a smaller-than-expected U.S. budget deficit.
The conventional explanation of the rise in global liquidity and low levels of volatility in the asset market tends to understand it in the context of a U.S. dollar that's weakening under the weight of a large current account deficit. This then prompts intervention by many countries, which in turn boosts their broad measures of money supply. The rise in U.S. interest rates and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar in recent weeks mean, under this rubric, that there is less need for intervention, and this therefore may dampen liquidity. This offers a more pessimistic outlook for investment portfolios.
Following Bernnake and the surplus-savings explanatory model would suggest that while financial markets are prone to these kind of spasms, the underlying investment drivers remain the same. Those rapidly developing Asian economies and the petrodollar-rich oil producers continue to generate surplus savings far in excess of financial assets domestically available. In addition, recently several countries, including China and Brazil, eased restrictions on domestic purchases of foreign assets.
Conventional wisdom had emphasized the shock of the hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indian workers entering the world economy and theoretically, at least, depressing wages. The surplus-savings hypothesis emphasizes the savings of these same countries being integrated into the global pool of capital. In addition, the rapid growth of monetary aggregates is not limited to those countries that have been rapidly accumulating reserves.
The European Central Bank, for example, which has not intervened in the foreign-exchange market since 2000, is wrestling with the fact that the pace of its money-supply growth is nearly twice the pace that prevailed prior to the beginning of the rate-hiking cycle in December 2005. The U.S. has stopped publishing M3, but the broad measure of money supply MZM has been rising at more than a 12% annualized pace for the last few months.
Ultimately, investors have to decide whether the investment climate has changed. The preliminary answer offered here is yes, because U.S. growth expectations have increased and the market no longer expects the Fed to cut rates this year. However, stronger U.S. growth is not a negative but rather a positive for the world economy. Ironically, many of the same investments that did well with the prospect of a U.S. rate cut may still derive support from a stronger U.S. economy.
This analysis and the constructive outlook it offers are not substitutes for disciplined risk management.
Warum stellt sich Chandler gegen alle FED-Äußerungen und zaubert jetzt plötzlich wieder steigendes US-Wachstum aus dem Hut? Weil die Zinsen am langen Ende steigen? Er verwechselt Ursache mit Wirkung.
Aahhrgh! Ich werde mittlerweile bekloppt, wenn ich die völlig unterschiedlichen Kommentare über die zukünftige Entwicklung der US – Wirtschaft lese und vor allem, in was für Bandbreiten diese sich abspielen wird.
In was für Kristallkugeln schauen diese Brüder ?
Hier mal wieder die definitive Doomsday – Version :
Global Liquidity Crisis when the Credit Boom comes to an End
Jun 06, 2007 - 10:23 PM By: Mike_Whitney
Stock markets around the world have been skyrocketing lately. In fact, Forbes reported on Tuesday that: “all 22 of the developed-world markets tracked by Morgan Stanley Capital International are in positive territory year-to-date… Emerging markets are looking just as flush. Of the 29 emerging market countries that MSCI tracks, only four — Argentina, Sri Lanka, Russia and Venezuela — are in negative territory.”
There's just one little problem; the Commerce Department announced yesterday that that GDP in the first quarter was revised downward to a measly 0.6%
In other words, economic growth is underwater and yet the stock market is still flying-high.
So, what gives?
It's easy. The markets are just responding to the growth in the money supply which is in double-digits just about everywhere around the world. When there are more dollars chasing the same number of assets — stocks go up. It's just that simple. What we're seeing isn't the result of investor confidence or industrial output. Heck no! Stocks are rising because our $800 billion current account deficit is recycling into the stock market. What we are really seeing is the first signs of inflation — galloping inflation which will soon spill over into the broader economy.
If we eliminate the “frothy” exuberance of America's trade deficit, then the stock market would be sucking air through a tube right now. And, you can bet that as soon as our foreign creditors wise-up and start raising interest rates the Dow Jones will quickly become the Dow Doldrums and the economy will nosedive into a 1929-type Depression.
Does that sound overly pessimistic?
At present, the “don't worry, be happy” crowd still thinks the good times will roll on forever. They don't see that the US consumer is running out of gas and won't be able to sustain his gluttonous spending spree much longer. He's already stopped siphoning the equity out of his home ($600 billion last year) and now he's has started to max-out his credit cards. (Credit card debt increased 9.2% last month alone!) Now, US consumers are facing a blizzard of bad economic news — rising prices at the gas pump, a 6.7% increase in food prices, and a sickly dollar that keeps losing ground on the currency exchange. (Kuwait is the latest country to announce they will be dumping the dollar for a basket of currencies)
Currently, the US gobbles up two-thirds of the world's credit each year with no conceivable way of paying it back. That won't last much longer. Central banks around the world are increasingly hesitant to accept are our flaccid greenbacks and the Chinese are the only ones who are still buying our Treasuries. That's mainly because it gives them power over political decision-making in Washington. The truth is the Chinese are planning to send the US into receivership and take over as the world's bank. With dollar-backed reserves of $1.3 trillion, their plan appears to be going “full-steam ahead”.
The bottom line is that we are buried beneath a $9 trillion mountain of debt and there's no way to dig out. If there's a break in the liquidity-flows to our stock market — stocks will crash, unemployment will soar, and we'll be pulled into a deflationary downspin.
Economic pundit Elaine Supkis puts it like this:
“World wealth isn't growing, world DEBTS are growing and the place they are growing the fastest is the US which is the sole terminus of world trade at this point. The biggest growth industry today is selling debt instruments. The entire existence of hedge funds, for example, is to funnel profits from uneven trade with the US back into the US via dumping debts onto the backs of any corporations that can run up more debts!”
Get it? It's all just recycled dollars — debt piled on debt piled on debt piled on debt — repeat ad infinitum. America's equities portfolio = 1% assets, 99% pure helium.
This may explain why Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has been frantically beating the bushes for “foreign investment” to keep the stock market bubble afloat. He has no interest in rebuilding America's industries or increasing our competitiveness. No way. What he's looking for is a quick liquidity-fix to keep the over-bloated stock market sputtering along while more wealth is shifted to mega-rich corporations. In fact, no one in Washington is even talking about renovating America's battered manufacturing sector. What do they care if we turn into a nation of busboys and bed-pan cleaners? They're just hanging around long enough to sell off whatever's left of our national assets then it's “off to new markets in the Far East”.
And, they are doing a great job, too! The United States is handing over 1.5% of its national wealth every year to foreign investors while the American public continues to snooze away.
We're having a giant garage sale and everything must go — roads, water, mineral rights, natural gas etc. We're getting “picked clean” and no one seems to care.
The boys in Washington and Wall Street don't work for you and me. They're destroying the currency and selling everything that isn't bolted to the floor. Then, they'll pack-off to Asia and Europe where they can begin the scavenging-cycle all over again.
How bad will it get in the USA?
Consider these comments from Princeton University economist Alan Blinder, who recently attended the business summit at Davos, Switzerland: (summarized by Rep. Ron Paul)
“Word has it that there may be plans yet again to “outsource” highly skilled American jobs to other countries. Approximately 40-million American jobs could be at stake and yet US workers have not been told or consulted about it, until now. Just to put the number of 40 million into perspective, that is more than twice the amount of people that are employed in manufacturing. (According to Alan Blinder) The ‘choice' jobs of skilled Americans could be lost and given to foreign countries within the next decade or two.”
40 million high-paying US jobs will be outsourced to lower-wage countries within the decade?!?
This is a blueprint for the economic destruction of America!
Maybe this will finally convince the dozy American public that the corporatists who run Washington are a disloyal gaggle of traitorous swine. “Globalization” is public relations swindle designed to steal jobs, plunder the economy, and shift wealth to ruling elites.
The name of the game now is to keep the stock market flying-high for as long as possible while the transfer of wealth continues unabated. That means the hucksters on Wall Street will have to devise even better scams for expanding debt — increasing margin limits, escalating derivatives trading, loosening accounting standards, inflating the booming hedge fund industry, and — the new darling of Wall Street — increasing the mega-mergers, the biggest swindle of all.
These over-leveraged mergers create boatloads of new credit, but add nothing to GDP. They reflect the basic disconnect between the stock market and the real economy. May is on track to be the biggest month for global mergers ever recorded. Marketwatch reports:
“For the year to date, companies have announced at least $2.2 trillion in deals worldwide. Of these, US companies have engaged in $830 billion”.
But look at the figures — Do they sound familiar?
Once again, the insightful Elaine Supkis makes this observation:
“Note that the 'deals' roughly equal our trade deficit. This isn't accidental. They are one and the same! And I will never see this fact stated so baldly in our media. No one dares say it in public.”
Wow; she's right. Our trade deficit is being concealed by these gargantuan mega-deals in the markets.
And there's something else we need consider about these mergers; they're not producing growth in the economy. In fact, GDP keeps falling while stocks keep going higher.
Why?
Because the mergers do not increase productivity; they're an indication of “asset inflation”. As Thorsten Polleit says, “the government-controlled paper money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the from the economy's productive capacities.” The link between the stock market and GDP has been broken by inflation.
Henry C K Liu explains it like this in his article “Liquidity Boom and Looming Crisis” in the Asia Times:
“The five-year global growth boom and four-year secular bull market may simple run out of steam, or become oversaturated by too many late-coming imitators entering a very specialized and exotic market of high-risk, high-leverage arbitrage. The liquidity boom has been delivering strong growth through asset inflation (property, credit spreads, commodities, and emerging-market stocks) WITHOUT ADDING COMMENSURATE SUBSTANTIVE EXPANSION OF THE REAL ECONOMY. Unlike real physical assets, virtual financial mirages that arise out of thin air can evaporate again into thin air without warning. As inflation picks up, the liquidity boom and asset inflation will draw to a close, leaving a hollowed economy devoid of substance. …A global financial crisis is inevitable”.
Liu's right. There's no “expansion in the real economy”—no increase in output; no boost in GDP. It's all recycled credit which will “evaporate” at the first sign of trouble.
Greenspan's low interest rates and currency deregulation have set us up for “global liquidity crisis”.
The basic problem is that credit growth has been outpacing GDP for some time now. That means that debt has been building up faster than the rate of growth in the economy. Eventually those imbalances will have to work themselves out by way of a steep recession or perhaps another Great Depression. There's a price to pay for low interest rates and, inevitably, we will end up paying it.
Thorsten Polleit of the Mises Institute explains it like this in his article “The Dark Side of the Credit Boom”:
“Today's government-controlled paper-money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the economies' productive capacities: "circulation credit" feeds a "credit boom" that is doomed to end in severe economic, social and political crisis. Austrian economists of the Mises Institute fear that the collapse of the credit boom will lead to the destruction of the currency through a deliberate policy of (hyper-)inflation, destroying the free-market order.”
“Destruction of the currency”; is that too strong?
No. In fact, the United Nations issued this gloomy statement just last week:
“The United States dollar is facing IMMINENT COLLAPSE in the face of an unsustainable debt”. America's current account deficit is now a matter of international concern.
Polleit says that “the increase in debt-to-GDP ratios ….can actually be observed in all major currency areas, not only in the United States”. This is true. Most of the industrial countries in the world have increased their money supplies to dangerous levels to avoid strengthening against the dollar. It is a prescription for disaster.
If the Fed chooses to lower interest rates now; (to ease the slumping housing market) they will only aggravate “existing disequilibria”. In fact lowering of interest rates will only perpetuate “the fateful expansion of circulation credit that must end in a collapse of the monetary system”.
So, why would the Fed engage in such reckless behavior when it violates fundamental laws of economics? According to Polleit, “the ongoing lowering of interest rates and the accompanying rise in circulation credit and debt-to-GDP ratios — the characteristic features of today's state-controlled paper-money systems — is driven by a deep-seated anti-capitalist ideology.”
This is also true. The serial “bubble-makers” at the Federal Reserve secretly hate the free market system; that's why they are engaged in plutocratic social engineering. They're using interest rates as a means for shifting wealth from one class to another and creating a centrally-controlled economy. There actions are essentially anti-free market and “anti-capitalist” as Polleit says. We can see this trend even more clearly in US foreign policy where the pretense of “free markets” has been abandoned altogether and America is securing its resources with gunboats and missiles rather than with a checkbook.
The current credit bubble is bigger than anything we've ever seen before. For example “The total market volume of credit derivatives outstanding was an estimated US $20.2 trillion in 2006, amounting to around 1.5 times annual nominal US GDP….The market is expected to grow further to US$33.1 trillion until 2008. In fact, the credit derivative market has become the biggest market segment of the international banking business already. The problem, however, is that the “credit derivative markets have emerged on the back of a government-controlled credit and money supply system. And as the latter is assumed to be crisis prone, credit derivative markets might be seen as a multiplier of the crisis potential inherent in today's monetary system”.
In other words, the whole $20 trillion derivative's market is at risk because it is built on a shaky foundation of hyper-inflated currency. Once again, if money supply exceeds GDP there'll eventually be a day of reckoning. We expect that derivatives and hedge funds will get hammered once the huge imbalances begin rumble through the markets.
So, what should we be looking for now?
Any break in the liquidity chain will send markets into downward spiral. The likely catalyst for such a crash could be contagion from the housing bubble creeping into the stock market, a sudden downturn in the Shanghai stock market, (which is up nearly 300% in just 2 years) or an increase in Japan's interest rates. Any one of these could potentially trigger a massive sell-off on Wall Street.
Today's stock market needs a steady flow of cheap capital to stay aright. That's why Paulson is desperately looking for new investors. But there's a basic problem which the markets cannot escape. Inflation is surfacing in all the countries where the stock markets are soaring because of their increases in the money supply. When the central banks are finally forced to raise interest rates; money will tighten up, it'll be harder for creditors to make their payments or for banks to issue additional loans. As credit dries up more people will default on their loans, demand will drop off for consumer goods, prices will fall, and we will go into deep recession.
Once this process begins, speculators will be forced to abandon their positions, liquidity will continue to evaporate and the market will go into freefall.
Markets are self-correcting. Eventually the overleveraged debt-instruments, which pushed the Dow to historic highs, will be expelled from the system, but not without considerable pain for everyone involved.
Here's an excerpt from Paul Lamont's excellent article “Credit Collapse—May 10” which provides a compelling description of what happens a credit bubble begins to unwind:
“On May 10, 1837, the banks of New York suspended gold and silver payments for their notes. Fear of a bank run spread throughout the United States. The young country fell into a 7 year depression. How could two decades of prosperity end so suddenly? According to America: A Narrative History: “monetary inflation had fueled an era of speculation in real estate, canals, and railroad stocks.” Cracks in the dam were visible much earlier, as the stock market peaked in inflation-adjusted value three years prior. According to Rolf Nef, debt levels in the private sector rose to 150% of GDP. In late 1836, the Bank of England concerned with inflation raised interest rates. As rates rose in England, credit tightened, and U.S. asset prices began to fall.
On May 10, investors panicked and scrambled for cash. “By the fall of 1837 one third of the work force was jobless, and those still fortunate to have jobs saw their wages fall 30-50% within 2 years. At the same time, prices for food and clothing soared.”
We can expect a similar scenario in the very near future. When interest rates are kept below the rate of inflation for an extended period of time; enormous equity bubbles arise and threaten the entire system. The stock market is undergoing a period of asset inflation. It has broken free from the real economy and is headed for a crash. As Edward Chancellor, author of “Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation” says: “The growth of credit has created an illusory prosperity while producing profound imbalances” in the American economy….At some point the system will have to adjust “to face a new reality. The process of adjustment is likely to be painful. It may well end in either an extraordinary deflation...or an extraordinary inflation."
Get ready. The credit boom is coming to an end.
By Mike Whitney
1. Goldman Sucks hat gestern eine Analyse veröffentlicht und das BIP Wachstum der USA von 3,6% auf nun 4,1% angehoben. Grund für die 0,5% Zuwachs ist die Handelsbilanz, welche besser als erwartet ausgefallen sind.
2. Die Frühindikatoren: Laut ECRI sind die in der Vorwoche wieder gestiegen und bewegen sich auf einem Rekordniveau.
Allerdings glaube auch ich dass die Börsen nach dieser Mini-Korrektur wieder zu einem gewaltigen Run ansetzten werden.
Servus, J.B.