Sind alle "vergifteten" Forderungen wertlos?
MB - warum bist du so nevös - falsche seite oder was - he lesen lesen lesen
gruss E8
Ich gehe davon aus, dass Du die Zinsen auf dem Kapitalmarkt meinst - also z.B. die Zinsen für Anleihen mit einer Laufzeit von 10 Jahren.
Selbst da musst man differnzieren, ob das sichere Staatsanleihen oder Unternehmensanleihen sind. Absolut meine Finger lassen würde ich von lang laufenden Staatsanleihen, denn da ist besser, wenn man seine Geld unters Kopfkissen legt - denn die mickrigen Zinsen werden niedriger sein, als die Kursverluste mit diesen Anleihen. Allerdings bin auch nicht extrem pessimistisch - denn auf mehr als 5% werden sowohl im Euro als auch im Dollar die Kapitalmarktzinsen nicht steigen, da die zukünftigen Inflationsraten überschätzt werden. Die inflationsdämpfenden Wirkungen der Globalisierung werden meines Erachten noch einige Jahre anhalten. Bei Unternehmensanleihen mit langer Laufzeit sehe ich auch Risiken, denn die Kurssteigerungen aufgrund niedriger Risikoeinschätzungen in den nächsten Monaten werden von leicht steigen Kapitalmarktzinsen aufgefressen.
Langer Rede kurzer Sinn: Ich würde, auch wenn es am kurzen Ende, nur wenig Zinsen gibt, dort verweilen - und auch als konserativer Anleger beginnen zumindest einige Aktien mehr zuzumischen.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/...-the-Malaise-of-Nations
Was ich im Gegensatz zum Geintner übersehen habe, ist, dass es für den Staat billiger wird, wenn er erst Eigenkapital von Banken erwirbt und dann Forderungen ankauft, denn dann bekommt er den Eigenkapitalanteil - wie heute zu sehen - wesentlich billiger. Kauft er anschließend zusätzlich Forderungen auf, gewinnt er nicht später beim Anstieg der Kurse dieser Forderungen, sondern auch stärker bei den sehr billig angekauften Bankaktien.
Zu diesem Gedankengang habe ich leider bis heute abend gebraucht - das wusste der Geinter schon früher, der der ja deshalb der US-Wirtschaftsminister ist. Und clever und abgezockt scheint der Bursche zu sein.
Durchsetzen muss die Politik aber, um in Zukunft keine Schäden anzurichten, das Abschmelzen von AIG - dieser Name muss durch den Verkauf von Geschäftsbereichen nach und nach ausgerottet werden. Gleiches sollte man mit der Citi-Bank gemacht, die zugunsten anderer Banken eingedampf werden muss.
Und zwar in einem "Zangeneinsatz" - durch Kauf von Forderungen und Wertpapieren durch die FED einerseits, was sie schon längst massiv macht, und durch Eigenkapital für Banken und Versicherungen andererseits.
Ich sehe da keine Risiken - auch wenn Bernanke hier einige Einschränkungen machte, dass muss er aus Gründen der Publicity wohl so tun.
Dass das Verbrauchervertrauen nach einigen Anstiegen wieder abgeflaut ist, war wohl angesichts der vielen "Säue", die durch die Presselandschaft gejagt wurden, nicht verwunderlich.
Wir haben eine typische Kostolany-Situation: Kaufen, Schlaftabletten einnehmen, Aufwachen und seinen Kapitaleinsatz verdoppelt bis verdreifacht haben.
Bernanke fears recession could extend to 2010
Tuesday February 24, 2009, 11:22 am EST
Yahoo! Buzz Print By Mark Felsenthal and Alister Bull
Reuters - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Capitol Hill ...
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned on Tuesday that unless government efforts succeed in restoring financial stability, the nation's recession may not end this year.
Bernanke told lawmakers that the fast-shrinking U.S. economy was at further risk from a mutually reinforcing cycle of weak growth and financial market strain.
"To break the adverse feedback loop, it is essential that we continue to complement fiscal stimulus with strong government action to stabilize financial institutions and financial markets," he told the Senate Banking Committee.
"If actions taken by the administration, the Congress, and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability -- and only if that is the case, in my view -- there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery," he said.
Financial markets largely ignored the testimony, focusing instead on a dire reading on U.S. consumer confidence, which the private sector Conference Board said sank to a record low in February. U.S. stock markets cut early gains, while prices for U.S. government debt rose.
Bernanke provided no details on what further steps U.S. officials might take to shore up the nation's creaky banking system. The ill state of U.S. banks has weighed on U.S. stocks, which hit a 12-year low on Monday.
"What the market wants to learn from Bernanke he may not even know, and if he does know, may not be able to tell them, which is 'What's the state of the bank rescue plan?'" said Cary Leahey, an economist with Decision Economics in New York.
GLOBAL SLOWDOWN CRIMPING U.S. GROWTH
Delivering the Fed's semiannual report on monetary policy, Bernanke further warned that another risk to the outlook was the global nature of the economic slowdown, which could sap U.S. exports and harm financial conditions to a greater degree than currently expected.
A slump in U.S. exports as world growth chilled last year added to a deep pullback in consumer spending that steepened the downward slide in the U.S. economy.
Bernanke said the Fed -- which has dropped rates to nearly zero -- would keep borrowing costs exceptionally low for some time and pledged to use "all available tools" to stimulate the economy and heal financial markets.
The Fed chairman made no mention of the prospect the central bank would purchase longer-term U.S. government debt, marking his third consecutive appearance in which he has not mentioned the possibility, which was front-and-center in a statement central bank policy-makers issued in late January.
"The Fed has decided put the Treasuries option on the back burner," concluded Kevin Flanagan, a fixed income strategist at Morgan Stanley in Purchase, New York.
Bernanke noted that an ongoing Fed program to buy mortgage finance agency debt and mortgage-backed securities had helped move mortgage rates lower by nearly one percentage point since it was announced in November.
He also said inflation pressures had receded dramatically as oil and commodity prices had fallen and slack had built up in the economy.
Steps the central bank has taken have helped restore some stability in certain areas of financial markets, the Fed chairman said, citing reduced strains in short-term funding markets, improved commercial paper market conditions and declines in corporate risk spreads.
"Nevertheless, despite these favorable developments, significant stresses persist," Bernanke said. "Notably, most securitization markets remain shut, other than for conforming mortgages, and some financial institutions remain under pressure."
(Editing by Dan Grebler)
Bernanke: Recession may end in '09; Stocks climb
Stocks rise as Bernanke tells Congress the difficult recession may end this year
Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Tuesday February 24, 2009, 2:39 pm EST
Yahoo! Buzz Print Related:The Home Depot, Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Macy's, Inc.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has reassured Wall Street by telling Congress the recession might end this year.
AP - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2009, before the ...
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HD 20.57 +1.86
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TGT 28.63 +0.20
{"s" : "hd,jpm,m,odp,tgt","k" : "c10,l10,p20,t10","o" : "","j" : ""} In his semiannual report to the Senate Banking Committee, Bernanke predicted the economy is likely to keep contracting in the first six months of 2009. But he also said "there is a reasonable prospect" the recession will end this year. He warned that a recovery will require getting credit and financial markets to operate normally.
While Bernanke's assessment of the economy helped ease some pressure on the market, it also came after days of heavy selling that left the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index near 12-year lows, so a bounce in stocks wasn't a surprise. Stocks made cheaper by the selloff attracted bargain-hunting traders. Also, some, better-than-expected quarterly numbers from Home Depot Inc. helped cool some anxiety about the economy.
Stocks were also up ahead of a speech by President Barack Obama. Beaten-down financial shares gained as investors hoped for better insight into the government's plans to aid the industry which is struggling with bad debt.
The White House said Tuesday that Obama will provide more details about his plans to help stabilize the financial system. He is also expected to make the case that more has to be done to revive the economy. The speech is scheduled for 9 p.m. EST.
The continued focus on the stability of the financial system comes a day after the government moved closer to dramatically expanding its ownership stakes in the nation's banks, including Citigroup Inc. The Treasury Department, the Fed and other banking regulators said Monday they could convert the government's stock in the banks from preferred shares to common shares.
Investors are hoping Obama's speech will give them a better sense of how the government will proceed in its efforts to alleviate the effects of a recession now in its 14th month.
In mid afternoon trading, the Dow rose 151.81, or 2.1 percent, to 7,266.59. On Monday, the major indexes tumbled more than 3 percent, including the Dow, which fell 251 points. It was the lowest close for the blue chips since May 7, 1997.
Broader stock indicators also rose Tuesday. The S&P 500 index rose 19.79, or 2.7 percent, to 763.12. On Monday, it logged its lowest finish since April 11, 1997.
The Nasdaq composite index rose 30.40, or 2.2 percent, Tuesday to 1,418.12.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 10.00, or 2.5 percent, to 404.58.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume amounted to 762.1 million shares.
Many analysts expect the market to remain volatile for the foreseeable future.
Ryan Larson, head of equity trading at Voyageur Asset Management, said the market is looking for insights into the Treasury Department's plans to "stress test" the banks and remove the toxic assets from their books.
"The market is desperately looking for more clues to piece together this bailout," he said.
Rich Hughes, co-president of Portfolio Management Consultants in Los Angeles, said the stock market's rallies are likely to be based on hope or on rebounds from selloffs. He contends Wall Street still hasn't seen the wrenching decline that is often needed to scare investors from the market and set the ground for a lasting recovery.
"The underlying fundamentals just aren't there to support anything that's sustainable right now," he said. "We haven't seen the capitulation that you'd want to see before you'd get thoroughly enthused."
The market's slide has been tough on long-term savers. An investor who in 1997 had $50,000 in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 would have lost money; the fund would now be worth $46,256. Still, stocks tend to perform better after steep pullbacks and their long-term returns often outpace other investments.
Bond prices fell Tuesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.77 percent from 2.76 percent late Monday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.30 percent from 0.29 percent Monday.
The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.
Light, sweet crude rose 65 cents to $39.09 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Home Depot posted a loss but the nation's largest home improvement retailer's results topped expectations when excluding costs for shutting four home-improvement brands. The stock rose $1.79, or 9.6 percent, to $20.50.
Target Corp. and Macy's Inc. said fiscal fourth-quarter earnings fell sharply as shoppers cut back on purchases. Office Depot Inc. posted a loss for the quarter. Target fell 15 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $28.28, while Macy's rose 78 cents, or 10.5 percent, to $8.18.
JPMorgan Chase Co. rose 99 cents, or 5.1 percent, to $20.50 after announcing late Monday it would slash its quarterly dividend to 5 cents from 38 cents in a move to preserve capital to protect itself should the ongoing recession worsen. The decision will save the bank about $5 billion per year.
Stocks fell in Europe after Monday's drop on Wall Street. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.78 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 0.73 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 0.73 percent. Earlier, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 1.5 percent.
New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com
Den Time-Lag der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik Libuda 24.02.09 18:10
für den Einstieg nutzen, heißt die Devise. Was viele nicht beachten ist, dass eine von Bängstern gesäuberte Welt sehr viel sicherer ist und niedrigere Risikoprämien für die Diskontierung der zukünftigen Gewinne von Aktien verlangt. Bei einem Kapitalmarktzins, den ich in in den nächsten fünf Jahren im Schnitt bei 5% sehe, sollten das KGV's von 15 bis 20 kein Problem sein. Was da z.B. mit einem gewichteten DAX-Gewinn von 800 für 2010 herauskommt, dürft Ihr selbst ausrechen.
Wir haben eine typische Kostolany-Situation: Kaufen, Schlaftabletten einnehmen, Aufwachen und seinen Kapitaleinsatz verdoppelt bis verdreifacht haben.
Gov't looks to quell nationalization fears
Gov't looks to quell nationalization fears; FDIC says additional aid will hinge on stress test
Jeannine Aversa and Merrill Hartson, Associated Press Writers
Tuesday February 24, 2009, 10:04 am EST
Yahoo! Buzz Print Related:American International Group, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, Citigroup, Inc.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. government on Tuesday sought to quell concerns that the administration is moving toward nationalization of the country's ailing financial system, but said it would provide additional support to banks that do not have an adequate buffer to survive in an even worse economy.
AP - Citigroup Center is seen in New York, Monday, Feb. 23, 2009. Citigroup Inc. has approached banking regulators ...
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Symbol Price Change
AIG 0.39 -0.14
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{"s" : "aig,bac,c","k" : "c10,l10,p20,t10","o" : "","j" : ""} Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said any additional steps to prop up the banking system will depend in part on a test to determine how the largest banks would fare in a more dire economic condition. Bair said that a "stress test" for some 20 of the largest banks this week will help federal policymakers determine "what type of additional capital investments the government may need to make."
If the test shows that banks need more capital and are unable to raise it privately, then the government might have to act, she said, speaking on CBS's "The Early Show."
She cautioned against rushing to the conclusion that Washington plans to take over the industry, saying, "I think there's ambiguity in the word 'nationalization.' "
In an interview on ABC's "Good Morning America," White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said the Obama administration is "going to help banks get through this crisis, but nobody imagines nationalizing banks."
Meanwhile, Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Ken Lewis is reassuring employees that his company is not discussing a larger U.S. stake with the government.
The memo dated Monday is Lewis' latest attempt to squash rumors of nationalization of the Charlotte, N.C.-based bank.
"I have said repeatedly that our company does not need further assistance today and I don't believe we'll need any more in the future," Lewis wrote in the memo posted on the company's internal Web site.
Shares of Bank of America, along with Citigroup Inc., have taken a beating in recent weeks on the fear that the government may move to nationalize them as their loan losses mount. Despite repeated insistence that it wants to avoid nationalization, the government may move to expand its ownership stake in banks.
On Monday, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and other banking regulators said they could convert the government's stock in the banks from preferred shares to common shares.
The strategy, which could be applied retroactively to banks that received money in the first incarnation of the bailout, would give the government voting shares, and therefore more say in a bank's operations.
But it avoids, at least for now, having to tap more taxpayer money or resort to full-fledged nationalization.
Wall Street responded Monday as it has with the rollout of almost every other plan to fix the financial crisis, taking a big drop and sending the Dow Jones industrials to its lowest level in a dozen years.
Citigroup -- perhaps the biggest name in American banking -- has approached the regulators about ways the government could help strengthen the bank, including the stock conversion plan, according to people familiar with the discussions. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak on behalf of the government or the company. A Citigroup spokesman declined to comment.
The stock conversion could be available for other banks as well, the same sources said.
Citigroup already has received $45 billion in bailout money, plus guarantees to cover losses on hundreds of billions of dollars in risky investments.
"What we are doing here is we're creeping our way toward nationalization," said Terry Connelly, dean of Golden Gate University's Ageno School of Business in San Francisco.
Common shares absorb losses before preferred shares do, which means that under a stock-conversion plan taxpayers would be on the hook if banks keep writing down billions of dollars' worth of rotten assets, such as dodgy mortgages, as many analysts expect they will.
On the other hand, common stock in banks is incredibly cheap, and taxpayers would reap gains if the banks come back to health and the stock price goes up.
Meanwhile, troubled insurer American International Group Inc. is looking to adjust the terms of its $150 billion government bailout, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. The government's primary loan to AIG totaling $60 billion would be repaid with a combination of debt, equity, cash and operating businesses, according to the report, which cited anonymous sources familiar with the discussions.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which is handling the government loan, declined to comment Tuesday on the report.
AIG said Monday it is working with the New York Fed to evaluate several alternatives to deal with its financial problems. The insurer also said it plans to provide a complete update on the government support when it releases fourth-quarter results, which is expected in the coming week.
AP Business Writers Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington, Ieva Augstums in Charlotte, and Madlen Read and Sara Lepro in New York contributed to this report.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-urges-banks-to-lend-rb-14455250.html
Mann, du bist selbst auf deinen Hühneraugen blind.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...et-ready-for-White-apf-14461890.html
Die entscheidende Frage ist nur: Wann nimmt man das wahr. Spätestens wenn alle Zinszahlungne und Tilgungen ausgelaufen sind. Aber die mit den kürzesten Laufzeiten laufen jetzt schon aus und werden getilgt. Und daher kann das mit dem Wahrnehmen der viel zu hohen Abschreibungen schon morgen beginnen. Es ist wie in Andersens Märchen von des Königs Kleider: Es fehlt noch das Mädchen das ruft, dass der König doch Kleider anhat und dem man das auch glaubt.
Wer dieses kleine Mädchen ist, weiss ich auch nicht. Es könnte aber durchaus die FED sein, wenn sie es denn will. Sie ist ja schon die eigentliche Bad Bank, denn sie hat ja durch das Ankaufen von Wertpapieren ihre Bilanzsumme verdoppelt. Das kann sie problemlos noch einmal tun, wenn sie denn will - momentan will sie aber noch richtig und will auch Hedge-Funds dabei mitverdienen lassen. Das finde ich nicht so gut, denn dieses Geschäft sollte der Staat machen und nicht die Geier, die ganz wesentliche Mitschuld an der Krise haben.
Also noch einmal: weiß jemand etwas über die Laufzeitenstruktur?
Nehmen wir das Beispiel der Industrieanleihen mit dem Rating BBB - das sind Firmen wie Daimler und Siemens. Dort war in den letzten Jahrzehnten die Ausfallquote in einem Zeitraum von 5 Jahren 1%. Die höchste Ausfallquote, die es je in einem Fünfjahreszeitraum gegeben hat, war 3%. In den momentanen Abschreibungen spiegelt sich aber eine Ausfallquote von 10% wider.
Und noch ein Wort zur Laufzeitenstruktur, die Dir niemand nennen kann, aber wohl im Schnitt zwischen 4 und 6 Jahren liegen dürfte: Je länger die Laufzeiten sind, desto idiotischer wirken die oben beschriebenen idiotischen Annahmen.
Treasury says big banks can get more bailout funds
Treasury says biggest banks can have immediate access to further support from bailout fund
Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Wednesday February 25, 2009, 2:41 pm EST
Yahoo! Buzz Print WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's biggest banks are being granted immediate access to further support from the government's $700 billion financial rescue fund.
Treasury Department officials said Wednesday the new support will be provided through the government's purchase of preferred shares of the bank stock that are convertible into common shares at a 10 percent discount to their price before Feb. 9.
The preferred shares will carry a 9 percent dividend and be convertible at the bank's option, but subject to regulatory approval.
The option to convert the preferred shares into common shares is a change in the rescue program designed to give financial markets greater confidence.
Common shares absorb losses before preferred shares do, which means that under a stock-conversion plan taxpayers would be on the hook if banks keep writing down billions of dollars' worth of rotten assets, such as dodgy mortgages, as many analysts expect they will.
However, common stock in banks is incredibly cheap, and taxpayers would reap gains if the banks come back to health and the stock price rises.
The Treasury Department also provided details of how a new stress test will function to ensure banks have enough capital to survive a downturn that would be even more severe than the current recession.
The stress tests will use two economic scenarios to gauge banks' health and are expected to be completed by the end of April.
The results will help regulators decide whether banks may need additional assistance so they can carry out the critical mission of boosting lending to customers, a key ingredient to the economic turnaround.
The "baseline" scenario envisions the nation's gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. and the broadest barometer of the country's economic health, falling 2 percent this year, unemployment rising to 8.4 percent and home prices dropping 14 percent.
The "adverse" scenario assumes GDP will drop 3.3 percent, unemployment rising to 8.9 percent and home prices falling 22 percent this year.
For all of 2008, GDP rose 1.3 percent, which was the smallest increase since 2001. In the fourth quarter, GDP fell 3.8 percent, the biggest contraction since 1982.
The unemployment rate last month surged to 7.6 percent, the highest in more than 16 years. It was 5.8 percent last year, the highest since 2003.
Median home prices in the U.S. fell 9.5 percent last year, according to the National Association of Realtors, though many big cities like Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Miami showed far larger declines.
AP Business Writers Jeannine Aversa and Alan Zibel contributed to this report.