Der USA Bären-Thread
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Gruß Pichel
auch wenn du den schein wahrscheinlich nur einige minuten haben wirst....
mfg
ath
Ps. bin auch short, wollte es aber nicht zu laut sagen, wg. morddrohungen, siehe KNUT.....
ein guter put wird immer billig gekauft.....
mfg
ath
Aber mit dem ausbauen heute, bei den zahlen, ist schon was wahres drann...
ECB's Trichet says currency markets should be aware of 'two-way risks'
20.04.07 13:54
BERLIN (Thomson Financial) - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet issued a warning on the use of carry trades in foreign exchange markets, saying that markets should be aware of "two-way risks". Carry trades are where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies such as the yen in order to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, and are considered to be risky trades that could suddenly unwind. Such trades have been very popular recently, causing the yen to fall to several-year lows against several currencies and to reach record lows against the euro. "We believe the Japanese economy is on a sustainable path and that foreign exchange rates should reflect that," Trichet said at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers here. "Currency markets should be aware of the two-way risks," he said. On the recent strong rise of the euro, Trichet reiterated that "excessive volatility and disorderly movements are undesirable". He also reiterated the message at last week's G7 meeting in Washington that a strong dollar is still considered to be in the interests of the US. jessica.mortimer@thomson.com jkm/jsa COPYRIGHT Copyright AFX News Limited 2007. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of AFX News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of AFX News.
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Evening-Star heißt gute Eröffnung - schwaches Ende ? Schön wär's ja, zumal die US-Eröffnung sehr stark ist.
Fundamental ist vieles im Argen und hier im Thread argumentativ immer wieder hervorragend dargelegt, erläutert und ananlysiert worden. So lange die Zinsen künstlich niedrig gehalten werden gibt es diesen immensen Liquiditätsboom der ein Ventil sucht.
Gruß
Permanent
hab mir heute wieder einen Happen SG3G26 gegönnt; Gewichtung im Depot momentan ca. 8%. kein Optionscharakter, daher zwar kein Hebel aber auch kein Zeitwertverlust oder KO-Gefahr; zudem bekommt man Haltekosten vergütet, also bestens zur langfristigen Absicherung geeignet. Den nächsten Happen gönne ich mir bei 7500; leider gibt es kein entsprechendes Produkt auf amerikanische Indizes, das in D gehandelt wird.
Habe aber auch Long wieder zugelegt durch Erhöhung der Position bei Init.
Aktien momentan bei 70%; der Rest Cash.
Depotpositionen nach Gewichtung:
Hermle
Pulsion
Init
Solar Millenium
Diskus Werke
Das Depot hat den Einbruch im Februar gut überstanden, natürlich auch getrieben durch Sonderfaktor gute Zahlen bei Hermle und die Rally in Solar Mille.
@Anti
der kleine exkurs sei mir gegönnt
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Wer selber stöbern möchte, hier entlang:
www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
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By Cody Willard
Street.com Contributor
4/20/2007 10:18 AM EDT
The hardest trade to make, right? Shorting.
Who's more scared right now, the bulls or bears? The bears are terrified.
And furthermore, how idiotic do you feel when you ponder buying some puts? And getting net short this market? You'd have to be on crack, peyote, Vicodin, and Zyprexa all at once to be that nutty.
There's an old saw on Wall Street about how the hardest trade to make is usually the right one. It's hard to short right now. Feels stupid to even consider it.
Not just for this reason, but even as I remain cash heavy right now, I'm focused as much on finding good short ideas as I am looking for long ones.
Wie kommt ihr auf Zinssenkung? Reine Fantasie bei dem Wahnsinns-Inflationsdruck zur Zeit - im Gegenteil, wahrscheinlicher ist vermutlich eine Zinserhöhung.
aber am ehesten gleichbleibend. alles andere waere grad aktionismus ber fed. was die nun auch immer tun, es waer wohl das falsche.
nur die phantasie regiert die maerkte zur zeit
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bin ich doof ? oder was......leute leute........der wahnsinn nimmt ueberhand
so und nun zieht einer bei ntv wieder bleistift und lineal raus...........
Stock Gains Beating Home Losses
By Tony Crescenzi
Street.com Contributor
4/20/2007 2:18 PM EDT
§
The U.S. stock market has obviously done well of late, and its gains are combining with low bond yields, tight credit spreads and the weakened dollar to provide meaningful financial stimulus to the U.S. economy.
We can quantify the impact of some of these; for example, studies have shown that for each percentage-point drop in the value of the U.S. dollar, the benefit to the U.S. economy is the equivalent to a roughly 10-basis-point cut in the Fed funds rate. [AHA! - A.L.] What the real number is we can't know, but suffice it to say that the weakened dollar will boost exports.
As for the stock market's gains, use the 4-cent rule. For each dollar gained in the value of equity portfolios, consumer spending should be expected to see an additional 4-cent increase.
This means that with U.S. equities currently valued around $20 trillion, a 5% increase in equities prices would boost portfolio values by about $1 trillion, which would theoretically boost consumer spending by $40 billion, generally over the course of about 18 months. Incidentally, households hold about $20 trillion of real estate.
There is a caveat to this. Equal gains in equities and home values are still a net negative. Home values have probably fallen as much as 5% recently, which means that values may have fallen by about $1 trillion. The wealth effect of that would be much greater than for a $1 trillion gain in equities. This makes sense since households tend to extract more of their home gains than their equities gains, chiefly through sales, refinancings and home equity loans.
Luckily in this instance, however, households can return to their financial assets, which they have traditionally turned to when home equity withdrawals were a lesser alternative. In other words, declines in home equity withdrawals should not be viewed in isolation; it is not a dollar-for-dollar hit to the economy.
For decades, there has been a seesaw pattern of withdrawals from either home assets or financial assets. In the current situation, households will merely turn back to their financial assets to finance consumption. Recent data from the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report show that this is already happening.
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