K+S, von Rekordhoch zu Rekordhoch

erreichbare Info ;)  

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL6N0HX06W20131007?irpc=932

Three groups still eye Kerimov's stake in Uralkali - paper
MOSCOW | Mon Oct 7, 2013 2:19am EDT

MOSCOW, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Three groups are still eyeing tycoon Suleiman Kerimov's stake in Russian potash producer Uralkali, Vedomosti newspaper reported on Monday, citing a high-ranking official and a source close to Kerimov.

Speculation that Kerimov has been trying to sell his stake has mounted since Uralkali triggered a row with Belarus by pulling out of a cartel that controlled 40 percent of the world's potash market and which the Kremlin is eager to repair.

A duo of investor Vladimir Kogan and an Arabic state fund, plus a second pairing of billionaire Vladimir Evtushenkov and partner Mikhail Gutseriev, are still eyeing Kerimov's 21.75 percent stake in Uralkali, the official said.

These two groups have already received approval from the Kremlin to proceed, the newspaper added, citing the source close to Kerimov.

The third potential buyer is tycoon-turned-politician Mikhail Prokhorov, according to the person close to Kerimov and a source at a Russian state bank.

Allies say that Kerimov himself values the company at $20 billion and would like to sell his stake to Prokhorov if the latter is able to win official backing. Uralkali has a market value of about $15.5 billion now, according to Reuters data.

Russian state bank VTB is ready to finance the deal if the buyer is able to provide 30 percent of the cash, the official said. The Arabic state fund may also provide Kogan with about $1 billion for a deal, he added.

Evtushenkov and Gutseriev had previously denied plans to buy a stake in Uralkali. Kerimov's investment vehicle Nafta and Gutseriev's Russneft declined to comment when called by Reuters on Monday.

Onexim group, which manages Prokhorov's assets, and Evtushenkov's oil-to-telecoms conglomerate Sistema were not available for immediate comment.  

Wäre den ein arabischer Staatsfond gut für K+S?

 

 

jetzt kann man wieder normal schreiben sollte man hoffen
Schon schlimm diese Anfälle des Users

ich für meinen Teil als Langfristanleger und fachfremder in Bezug auf die Potash Branche bin jedenfalls froh über die fachlichen Informationen, die noogman, thairat, Doc2 und reitz und alle anderen hier einstellen.

sehe keinen  Grund für Frust-Kommentare.

Bin gestern wieder über einen alten Artikel (August 2013) über das Jansen Projekt gestolpert und habe versucht, für mich mal zwischen den Zeilen zu lesen.

- BHP will langfristig in den Markt eintreten
- sie werden step by step die Investitionen freigeben, je nach Marktlage (derzeit bis 2017 2,7 Mrd Dollar)
  insgesamt ca 16 Mrd Dollar
- sehen den Produktionsbeginn frühestens im Jahre 2020 (nach den neuesten Turbulenzen)

Sieht für mich nach einer strategisch wohlüberlegten Diversifizierung aus; man beschlossen hat, aufgrund der langen Aufbauphase, damit Stück für Stück zu beginnen. Man geht wohl langfristig davon aus, dass das Marktvolumen stark wachsen wird und will sich seinen Teil vom Kuchen sichern.

Ich kann mir nicht vorstellen, dass jemand 16 Mrd Dollar in einen Verdrängungsmarkt investieren will. Die anderen haben ja jetzt mindestens 7 Jahre Zeit, ihre Kostenpositionen zu verbessern


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-20/...ng-2-6-billion-spend.html  

dann müsste K+s ja enorm steigen

ich nenne es den Meingott-Indikator, bei Nordex hat der Prima funktioniert

:-)

 

UPDATE 1-Mosaic cuts forecast for 2013 global potash shipments

By Rod Nickel

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N0HX1H720131007?irpc=932  

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bnn.ca /Source/2013-10-08
BHP to invest $2.6 billion in Jansen project, seeks partners

The world's largest miner BHP Billiton ( BHP-N ) plans to invest $2.6 billion US in the Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan and is open to partnerships on the $14-billion plus mine, Graham Kerr, BHP's chief financial officer, tells BNN.

Kerr says the company has gainfully partnered in other areas of its businesses to help reduced costs.

"We have major businesses in iron ore and copper…and on all those businesses we have partners," he says. "Partners can add value to the project. We'll adopt a similar approach to Jansen."

Getting the infrastructure in place takes time, but the company will be watching the potash market very closely, he adds.

There have been growing concerns over price uncertainty in the potash market following the withdrawal of Russia's Uralkali, the world's largest potash producer, last month. The move effectively dismantled one of the world's major potash cartels leading to a steep fall in global potash prices.

Kerr says the price uncertainty in the global potash market is unlikely to affect BHP's Saskatchewan potash project.

"Jansen is still years away from being in a position to produce," he says. "BHP believes in fair and transparent market places. There's nothing in the recent [cartel] announcement that causes alarm," he says.

BHP had originally set 2015 as the start-up of the Saskatchewan mine, located 140 kilometres east of Saskatoon. But on Tuesday's earnings conference call, CEO Andrew Mackenzie pegged 2020 as the production date.

When asked whether Jansen was delayed, chief financial officer Kerr sidestepped the question, saying the company's $2.6-billion investment allows it "flexibility."

"The single biggest barrier to getting into the potash industry is sinking the shafts because of the time it takes," he says. "And that's what the $2.6 billion basically covers. What it does is gives us flexibility"

Once the mineshafts are in place, "we can go faster or slower depending on the market demand and maximize value for our shareholders," he adds.

It has already invested $1.2 billion in Jansen and the timing of its entry has been closely watched by the world's major producers, led by Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, which BHP tried to take over in 2010.

Its $39-billion bid was blocked by Ottawa on fears that potash prices and royalties would drop as BHP planned to split from the North American cartel. Now Russia's Uralkali has given potash producers a taste of what could happen as it recently quit the Belarusian Potash Co cartel.
 

http://online.wsj.com/article/DN-CO-20131008-001215.html#

India's Second-Largest Potash Importer Close To Securing Discount On Import Deals
By Biman Mukherji

NEW DELHI--India's second-largest importer of potash Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd. (534742.BY) expects to renegotiate annual import contracts for the key fertilizer ingredient at a discount by this month, a move that is likely to induce other major global buyers including China to seek cheaper imports.

"The new rates should come in by this month," Suresh Krishnan, the company's managing director told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.

The company had inked import deals of around 800,000 tons for this year, which was originally contracted at $427 per ton. Out of this, about 400,000 tons have already been imported.

The renegotiated contract price for the remaining 400,000 tons is likely to be around $375 per ton.

If the deal comes through, Zuari would become the second Indian potash buyer to re-negotiate import prices at a discount. Indian Potash Ltd, the largest importer, said late last month that it has renegotiated annual import contracts totaling about one million tons.
 

7 Billion Reasons To Buy This Industry Leader
Oct 8 2013, 16:22 | by Efficient Alpha | about: POT

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1733642
 

ist es denn völlig absurd wenn die beiden "zusammen" arbeiten würden,
so als quasi gute Nachbarn??  

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/...-zahlenvorlage-im-november-016.htm

K+S: Details zum Sparprogramm spätestens bei Zahlenvorlage im November
08.10.2013 | 14:29

Der Düngemittel- und Salzproduzent K+S will bis Mitte November Details zu seinem angekündigtem Sparprogramm vorlegen. "Bis spätestens zum 14. November werden wir Details vorstellen", sagte ein Sprecher am Dienstag. An diesem Tag legt der Konzern seine Zahlen zum dritten Quartal vor.

Ende August hatte K+S die Notwendigkeit von weiteren Sparanstrengungen eingeräumt. Die laufenden Projekte zur Verbesserung von Effizienz und Strukturen "so wichtig und richtig sie sind, werden aus heutiger Sicht nicht ausreichen", stimmte Vorstandschef Norbert Steiner Ende August die Mitarbeiter in einem Brief ein.

Für die Finanzierung der milliardenschweren Ausbaupläne in Kanada ("Legacy-Projekt") will sich K+S zudem die Option von Hybrid-Anleihen offen halten, sagte der Sprecher weiter.

Sinkende Kali-Preise machen dem Düngemittel- und Salzproduzenten schon vor den jüngsten Verwerfungen an den Kalimärkten zu schaffen. Die Turbulenzen wurden Ende Juli durch den Ausstieg von Uralkali aus einer Vertriebsallianz ausgelöst./stk/zb/fbr  

Potash sector struggles with excess capacity

Peter Koven
Friday, Oct. 4, 2013

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/...uggles-with-excess-capacity  

India Potash Importer Seeks Price Discounts
Posted on October 8, 2013 by Asher Berube
...
Mr. Krishnan said the renegotiated contracts may not lead to lower prices of potash to their domestic customers as the rupee"s slide against the U.S. dollar since May would largely negate any profit advantage.

The rupee is currently trading more than 12% below its level against the dollar in early May.

He said the company had signed import contracts for roughly about 200,000 tons each with four suppliers, including the Russian-Belarusian grouping, Canpotex of Canada, Israel Chemicals Ltd and a Morocco-based producer.

There is no large spot market for potash, so prices have for years been fixed when large buyers such as India or China negotiated new deals.

Chinese buyers, who usually enter into bi-annual import contracts, are expected to shortly sign new deals after having deferred contracts for the second half of the year, said Deepika Thapliyal, a potash analyst at ICIS, a market information provider specializing in the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer sectors.

"We are eagerly waiting to see at what price China agrees," she said.

Ms. Thapliyal said prices were probably reaching a floor as large producers had cut down production in response to tepid demand. "We see more producers taking steps to ensure that there is no supply glut in the market. I think we are bound to see a dip in potash shipments," she added.

Uralkali said last week that it expected that prices for the fertilizer ingredient would bottom out by the end of the year and that they may not fall as low as previously forecast as the market stabilizes following the collapse of the informal cartel.

http://investorintel.com/potash-phosphate-press/...s-price-discounts/  

K+S to Risk Credit Rating on View Potash Price to Return to $400
Oktober 08, 2013 9:28 AM EDT
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K+S AG (SDF), Europe’s biggest producer of potash, said it’s prepared to put credit ratings at risk on funding a new mine because the company predicts prices for the crop nutrient will return to about $400 a ton.
A hybrid bond to raise one-third of the investment, or about $1.4 billion, for the Canadian project called Legacy is one option being considered, Chief Financial Officer Burkhard Lohr told analysts at a meeting yesterday. Lohr’s comments, reported in a Bernstein Research note today, were confirmed by Michael Wudonig, a spokesman at the Kassel, Germany-based potash producer.
K+S has dropped 29 percent in Frankfurt trading since competitor OAO Uralkali (URKA) said July 30 that the fertilizer’s price may tumble to less than $300 a ton from more than $400 as the Russian company ramps up production to full capacity. K+S is forecasting that potash prices will bottom out in the last three months of this year and rise again in 2014, Lohr told the analysts.
“Watch for a potential downgrade of debt status since Legacy will continue with more debt financing,” the Bernstein analysts, including Jeremy Redenius and Paul Gait, said in a report titled “How K+S sees the industry and how we differ.”
K+S gained as much as 1.6 percent to 19 euros and was trading up 0.4 percent at 3:23 p.m., reversing a drop of as much as 1.3 percent earlier today. The stock has lost 46 percent this year, cutting the company’s market value to 3.59 billion euros ($4.88 billion).
The German company’s debt is rated BBB+ at Standard & Poor’s, the third-lowest investment grade, and Baa2 at Moody’s Investors Service, the second-lowest. Both credit-reporting companies have a negative watch on K+S, meaning they may downgrade the debt.
K+S will announce a cost-cutting program by the time it publishes quarterly earnings on Nov. 14, the CFO said yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sheenagh Matthews in Frankfurt at smatthews6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Simon Thiel at sthiel1@bloomberg.net

http://mobile.businessweek.com/news/2013-10-08/...ce-to-return-to-400  

http://belarusinfocus.info/p/6056

BPC and Uralkali’s divorce: first performance results
08.10.2013

On October 3 rd , Uralkali summed up its performance results in Q3 2013.

The divorce between BPC and Uralkali has had a diametrically opposite effect on the companies’ performance results. These results suggest that all the work in the BPC was mainly carried out by Uralkali representatives. It seems that it will be extremely difficult for Belarus to recover its sales without a common sales network with Russia.

In Q3 2013 Uralkali produced 2.7 million tons of potassium chloride, which is 4% more than in 2012. The company is operating at almost full capacity. Potash sales in August and September totalled 1 mln tons. In Q3 2013 Belaruskali produced about 1.4 million tons and its production was decreasing with each passing month. According to estimates, in Q4 it will produce 0.9 million tons. In Q1-Q3 2012, Belaruskali produced 2.1 million tons, and in Q4 1.4 million tons.

After the split between BPC and Uralkali, Belaruskaliy reduced production and experienced problems with sales, while Uralkali increased production and the volume of sales, threatening to push its Belarusian competitor off the foreign markets.

The companies’ performance results mean the following. The sales policy was in the hands of Uralkali. Belarusian BPC representatives performed an exclusively representative function and had no skills to negotiate with key customers. Despite BPC attempts to regain their lost positions on the market by dumping, and claims to sell 150,000 tons per month in November and December 2013, Uralkali’s aggressive policy has paid off and Belaruskali, the main donor in the Belarusian economy, will be unable to ‘normalize’ its operations before the year-end.

 

Agrium says potash under pressure from Russian ‘soap opera’

ALLISON MARTELL
TORONTO — REUTERS
Last updated Tuesday, Oct. 08 2013, 11:40 AM EDT


Mike Wilson, president and CEO of Agrium, addresses shareholders during the company's annual general meeting in Calgary, Alberta, May 11, 2012. (TODD KOROL/REUTERS)
   
The Russian potash “soap opera” could weigh on prices until demand rises substantially or producers shut some capacity, the chief executive of Canadian fertilizer company Agrium Inc said on Tuesday.

Prices for the crop nutrient have slipped since mid-summer, when Russian’s Uralkali OAO quit its export partnership with Belaruskali, owned by the Belarus government, saying it would seek to boost volume.


The business dispute quickly turned into a diplomatic row after the CEO of Uralkali was detained in August while visiting Belarus, which depends on income from Belaruskali.

“The soap opera in Russia, and I think that’s the best way to characterize it ... I don’t know how it’s going to play out,” said Agrium CEO Mike Wilson at the company’s investor day in New York.

Wilson said the structure of the market has to go back to where it was, and some producers need to shut capacity, or demand has to soar above 60 million tonnes. Otherwise, he said, prices will be under pressure.

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/...?service=mobile#!/  

Hat tip Ruehrwerk
Economic cooperation schemes between Russia and Belarus will be changed
17.09.2013

...
Reduced aid from Russia will push Belarus towards privatizing its assets. Belarus’ preliminary calculations show that Belarus will have to sell state property in 2014 worth at least USD 4 billion. Uralkali’s CEO Baumgertner’s arrest chastened potential investors in Belarus, therefore Russian businesses will have, de facto, a monopoly on acquiring assets in Belarus and Sechin will lead the negotiations. Delayed privatization, in the absence of guaranteed external funding, will result in a rapid reduction of gold reserves - to critical levels - and a repeat of the 2011 crisis.

Thus, Russo-Belarusian negotiations over economic issues will become harsher. The reduced number of negotiators will narrow room for manoeuvre, and in 2014, Belarus will be forced to sell one of its major assets to avoid a rerun of the 2011 crisis.
http://belarusinfocus.info/p/6031  

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKBRE9980PI20131009?irpc=932

Saskatchewan leader sees discount in potash price, for now
Wed Oct 9, 2013 4:25pm BST

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Saskatchewan's government is factoring in a 25 percent decline in potash prices following the breakup of longstanding trading arrangements that have jolted the world market, the Canadian province's leader said on Wednesday.

But Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, on an Asian tour to boost trade, also said the world potash market was difficult to forecast and any successful attempt to restore a shattered alliance between producers in Russia and Belarus could bring back higher prices.

The break-up in July of a joint venture between Russia's Uralkali (URKA.MM) and Belaruskali in neighbouring Belarus has sent prices tumbling, with buyers holding back on purchases in anticipation of further declines.

That alliance, plus a grouping of three potash companies in Saskatchewan - Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT.TO), Mosaic Co. (MOS.N) and Agrium Inc (AGU.TO) - accounted for 70 percent of international sales.

Wall, interviewed at a Singapore hotel, said his government had priced in a discount of 25 percent of previous levels of about $400 per tonne.

"You see experts talking about a 25 percent discount...down to about $300 dollars or so. We have adjusted for that in our budget," he said.
 

Eon verkauft , K+S gekauft...mal schauen ob ich richtig liege, hoffe auf Winter- effeckt

http://www.boerse-express.com/mobile#/mobile/belogs/get_belog/688670

K+S AG - Wette auf die Marke von 400 USD pro Tonne Kali
09.10.2013 15:39
Von Björn Junker

Kalimarkt wie gelähmt

Ende Juli stürzte der russische Kaliproduzent Uralkali den Markt für das Düngemittel in Turbulenzen und die Aktien des Sektors auf Talfahrt. Uralkalis CEO Vladislav Baumgertner kündigte an, dass man aus der Marketingallianz BPC austreten und von nun an die Produktion nach eigenem Gutdünken hochfahren werde. Das sprengt das System, mit dem der Kalipreis bislang zu großen Teilen kontrolliert wurde, und bringt den Preis unter Druck.

Baumgertner sagte damals auch voraus, dass der Kalipreis schon bald um 25% auf unter 300 USD pro Tonne fallen werde. Zwei Monate später allerdings muss man feststellen, dass der vollständige Effekt der Zerschlagung des russisch-weißrussischen Oligopols, das mehr als 40% der Kaliexporte weltweit kontrollierte, (noch) nicht auf den Markt durchgeschlagen hat.

Der kanadische Produzent Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (WKN 878149) erklärte im September, dass der Kalimarkt derzeit quasi eingefroren sei. Alle großen Marktteilnehmer würden darauf warten, wer sich bei Preis und Produktion zuerst bewegt. Aktuell liegt der Kalipreis an der Marke von 400 USD pro Tonne –wie auch schon vor dem Schritt von Uralkali.  

Jansen Potash: Will BHP blink?
Posted on October 9, 2013 by Robin Bromby
- See more at: http://investorintel.com/politics-intel/...link/#sthash.L8ROLQKl.dpuf
 

http://de.reuters.com/article/companiesNews/idDEBEE99902J20131010

K+S-Kaliförderung ruht am Standort des Grubenunglücks vorerst
Donnerstag, 10. Oktober 2013, 11:02 Uhr


Frankfurt (Reuters) - Nach dem schweren Grubenunglück in Thüringen wird K+S seine Kaliförderung und -produktion am Standort Unterbreizbach vorerst nicht wieder starten.
 
Die Wiederaufnahme der Rohsalzförderung vor Anfang November sei nicht zu schaffen, teilte der Kasseler Salz- und Düngemittelspezialist am Donnerstag mit. Aktuell werde daran gearbeitet, das Kohlendioxid in der Grube zu beseitigen. Erst dann könne über das weitere Vorgehen entschieden werden. Bei einem Grubenunglück in einem Kalischacht des Konzerns in Thüringen waren in der vergangenen Woche drei Bergleute ums Leben gekommen.
 
K+S kündigte zudem an, Kurzarbeit anzumelden, sollte die Produktion noch länger ruhen. Aktuell führe der Konzern Gespräche mit dem Betriebsrat über eine Betriebsvereinbarung. Die Lieferfähigkeit des Konzerns sei aber durch den Produktionsstopp nicht gefährdet. Bestehende Aufträge werden laut K+S von anderen Werken abgewickelt.