Aixtron purpose of this thread
I few of the points I wrote down as noteworthy during the call.
Strong momentum for wide bandgap materials in all markets. Power mostly coming from Europe and USA (Wolfspeed). 1/3 of the orders are being placed in US$ and the new conversion rate is 1,15.
Dividend should be continuing but percentage of profit not fixed
Share buyback programs considered
GaN
- inverters in household solar power – big dye size.
- consumer stuff (chargers) not very important. Telecom stations with high reliability
- optical data transfer business – 1 wafer for hundreds (if not 1.000) of lasers
SiC
G-10 launched Q3/22. Majority off all SiC orders coming in for this system. Highly cost competitive
- very strong repeat orders from existing customer
- new customers ordering 2-3 systems
- 1 new customer ordering a larger number of systems (based in Europe)
- biggest growth driver. 1 wafer for 6-7 Electric vehicles
Goal: 50% market share – “a good number to look at”
G10-AsP
Laser
VCSEL
MicroLED - capex investment continuous
“descent amount orders received and descent amount of revenue generated – 10%”
1 volume commercial customer several (double digit) smaller customers ordering 2-3 systems for small pilot line.
- all display makers
- tech driven start-ups
- all activities ongoing despite big Job cuts in Q4 from US Big Tech
R/G/B customers order all systems from Aixtron. However there are customers experimenting with blue and color filters to generate R/G
Hick-up in the transfer process further down the production line seem to still exist.
R/O/Y LED
business is slowly fading away with consumer confidence fading. End 2023 Felix expects it to have disappeared. It was a low margin business.
Power business split
2022 GaN 60% - SiC 40%
2023 GaN 40% - SiC 60% (expected)
China is losing importance in overall numbers as demand for Power (US and Europe based) increases
Future split of business:
1/3 GaN
1/3 SiC
1/3 MicroLED
Export licenses
“situation is relaxing – they are coming some quicker some slower than expected”
Blue Glass in Australia
is a customer and Aixtron signed a NDA like with any other customer
Tax loss
just a different reporting requirement. Not relevant at all
Service revenue
€100 Million in 2022 should increase in future years
All in all I am still convinced this is one of the best tech. investments one can make.
BR
baggo-mh
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Wolfspeed Stock Falls After Tesla Suggests Next-gen Car Will Cut Silicon-carbide Use -- MarketWatch
Donnerstag, 2. März 2023 02:11 CET
Wolfspeed Inc. (WOLF)shares declined more than 5% in after-hours trading Wednesday, after Tesla Inc. (TSLA) executives said their next-generation car will require less silicon carbide. Wolfspeed, a semiconductor company previously known as Cree, specializes in silicon-carbide chips, which have found a home in electric vehicles because of their resistance to heat. In an investor day presentation Wednesday afternoon, Tesla executives said their next-generation powertrain would cut the need for silicon carbide by 75%, one of the few hard details they gave about their plans for a new car. Tesla shares also declined more than 5% in Wednesday's extended session.
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Also Aixtron cont. increases their equipment efficiency which would mean less of MOCVD per wafer but better and more desired product from customer point of view.
The stock price needs a pull back :)
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Habe das gerade gelesen zu Teslas SiC claim.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/...ng_alpha&utm_term=30707128.28408
Bei Tepla verstehe ich die Sorgen der Anlger nicht wirklich. Das Aktienpaket geht an institutionelle Anleger.
Gruß baggo-mh
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AKTIE IM FOKUS: Aixtron klar erholt - Warburg sieht Rückschlag als Kaufchance
FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX Broker) -
Nach schwachem Vortag haben sich die Aktien von Aixtron am Freitag gut gefangen. Die Papiere des Chip-Ausrüsters erholten sich um bis zu 4,2 Prozent und konnten damit die 100- und 50-Tage-Linien doch noch halten.
FRANKFURT Warburg-Experte Malte Schaumann sah den schwachen Donnerstag als Kaufchance. Auslöser sei wie bei anderen aus dem Bereich Siliziumkarbid (SiC) der Investorentag von Tesla gewesen, so Schaumann. Der Elektroautobauer habe eine Folie gezeigt, wonach in der Modellreihe beziehungsweise dem Antriebsstrang der nächsten Generation drei Viertel weniger SiC-Komponenten verbaut werden sollen.
Bei der Beurteilung der Konsequenzen müsse man aber genau hinschauen, erklärte der Experte. So sei beispielsweise die Referenzgröße für das Reduktionsziel völlig unklar. Man dürfe jedoch annehmen, dass sich die Texaner auf seit 2017 im Modell 3 verbaute SiC-Module der zweiten Generation von STMicro bezögen. Die dritte Generation habe bereits klare Vorteile gebracht, die die vierte Generation nun nochmals ausbaue. Der Erfolgsweg von SiC bleibe vom Tesla-Statement unbeirrt./ag/mis
https://www.handelsblatt.com/dpa/aktie-im-fokus-aixtron-klar…
MfG
Kloben (poste das mal zur Beruhigung hier)
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GaN Power semiconductors begins to compete with SiC the voltage goes up to >900V class. We cannot rule out the possibility that Tesla is switching some of the SiC chips to GaN for EV's. Benefit of using GaN-on-Si is that it does not require the expensive SiC substrate. Either way Aixtron's tools are used.
Wenig Siliziumcarbid, keine Seltenen Erden: Tesla erschreckt mit Anleger-Tag 2 Branchen
Zudem schickte er auch Aktien aus Zulieferer-Branchen auf eine Talfahrt, denn in Zukunft will Tesla weniger Siliziumcarbid und keine Seltenen Erden mehr verwenden.
Test-Hersteller reagiert auf Tesla
Der Einsatz von Siliziumcarbid-Chips in der Leistungselektronik für Elektroautos macht die von Tesla effizienter, und wird wie andere Innovationen verspätet auch von anderen Herstellern übernommen. Doch bei Tesla soll der Anteil solcher Chips in seiner nächsten Antriebsgeneration um volle 75 Prozent reduziert werden, sagte der Leiter dieses Bereiches bei dem Anleger-Tag. Das führte dazu, dass verschiedene Chip-Aktien einschließlich der von STMicroelektronics als dem führenden Ausrüster am Donnerstag verloren.
Wohl am schwersten erwischte es Aehr Test Systems, dessen Aktie am Donnerstag rund 15 Prozent abrutschte. Noch am selben Tag reagierte das Unternehmen mit einer detaillierten Presse-Mitteilung auf den Anleger-Tag bei Tesla und bezog sich mehrmals direkt darauf. Aehr gehe nicht davon aus, dass sich die Nachfrage nach den eigenen Test-Systemen im selben Maß verringern werde, heißt es darin. Tesla habe erkennen lassen, dass die Umstellung nur die nächste Elektroauto-Generation betreffe und zudem größere und stärkere Chips verwenden zu wollen. Die Zahl der zu testenden Wafer werde deshalb weniger stark sinken.
https://teslamag.de/news/siliziumcarbid-seltene-erden-tesla-anleger-tag-schreck-branchen-57146/amp
Ich denke die Marktreaktion war völlig übertrieben.
Gruß baggo-mh
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Han Qingxiu, Taipei 2023-03-06
Tesla announced that the next generation of electric vehicles will reduce the amount of silicon carbide (SiC) by 75%, causing an uproar in the industry. Relevant supply chain operators believe that how to replace SiC at this stage is still unknown. It is expected that it will be difficult to change SiC in the next 3 years The mainstream position of electric vehicles, especially high-end electric vehicles. If the heat dissipation problem can be effectively improved, the application field of gallium nitride (GaN) power components will be greatly expanded, and it is expected to become the best solution for alternative materials.
Since SiC power components can operate under high power and high voltage conditions, and provide high power conversion efficiency requirements, they are regarded as the primary development option for electric vehicles, industry and energy fields, while the main target market of GaN is different, from 3C fast charging , communications, and broadband are the priority development targets, but in recent years, it has gradually developed towards data center power supplies, on-board chargers (OBC), electric vehicles, and industrial control.
Those familiar with the compound semiconductor industry pointed out that the biggest difference between traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles is that the engine is replaced by an electric motor, and the key will be to use SiC to meet the performance requirements of high voltage and high current, and to exert excellent heat dissipation performance.
Although the traditional Si material is mature and cheap, it is always difficult to improve the heat dissipation problem, which has become an inherent obstacle and bottleneck. Therefore, if Tesla wants to greatly reduce the use of silicon carbide, it is expected that the heat dissipation improvement may be improved through the rear module side. The actual results It remains to be seen, and the industry is still dubious at this stage, and it is expected that there is little chance of overturning SiC in the short term.
In terms of technology and performance, GaN not only has the ability to withstand high frequency, high voltage, and high current, but most importantly, it is more cost-competitive than SiC, but the only difference compared to SiC is that GaN has poor heat dissipation performance, so there are currently few in the industry. Focusing on high-current automotive motor switching devices, it is generally expected to be used in applications such as broadband, Internet communication, or small-scale power control such as fast charging. As for the part in the field of vehicle devices, it has also begun to be introduced in such as USB charging, entertainment system switches, etc.
With the increasingly fierce competition in the electric vehicle market, Tesla is facing pressure to reduce material costs. The industry also speculates that Tesla’s announcement to reduce the use of SiC, in addition to asking suppliers to lower prices, may also launch low- and medium-priced models in the future. Pave the way.
Due to the low motor current requirements of mid-to-low-end cars, the technological development of GaN power components is expected to become a new force in automotive semiconductors, increasing the imagination of GaN application growth.
Because GaN power devices are limited by the growth ability of materials, the industry is currently dominated by heteroepitaxy structures, including GaN on Si and GaN on SiC, but some companies are also developing high-order GaN on GaN homogeneous epitaxy structures. It can withstand higher current and power, but the price will not be cheaper than SiC. It is not expected to be considered by Tesla to reduce costs.
Although GaN is subjected to high-voltage current, the thickness of the wafer must be thickened, otherwise it may cause problems such as wafer deformation, but the industry believes that the manufacturing process will be improved with the development of technology. In other words, with the effective improvement of heat dissipation, GaN may one day become a Alternatives to replace SiC and create a new battlefield for automotive semiconductors.
In addition to TSMC, Hanlei and other early investors, Jingcheng Semiconductor, a subsidiary of Ennostar Group, is also actively participating in the GaN battle. Jingcheng pointed out that due to the decline in consumer electronics demand in 2022, new projects for Micro LED development will increase significantly. Jingcheng’s annual revenue is close to NT$400 million, an annual growth rate of about three times.
Although the second half of the year is mainly supported by the increase in Micro LED revenue, new GaN projects will be launched in charging or RF communication. 5G RF communication has already been verified by two customers. Although the progress of bulk acoustic wave filter (BAW filter) is delayed, However, the kinetic energy of large-scale shipments in the second half of 2023 is optimistic.
Regarding the expansion of GaN applications, Ennostar believes that it is expected to bear fruit in the second half of 2023. In addition to fast charging, there are growth opportunities for electronic component motherboards or power supply applications, and hopes to gain more market share in the terminal application market.
However, there is little chance of achieving a loss in 2023, and the monthly loss depends on the performance of shipments. It is expected that the monthly revenue will reach 100 million yuan, and the loss will be expected. By 2024, the goal of a single month will be achieved.
The mainstream position of SiC is difficult to shake, and the chances of GaN substitute candidates are greatly increased.
https://www.digitimes.com.tw/tech/dt/n/...58253_V8M3KY0C49JQ634E7P0DG
Will double previous 5-year investment plan to some 260 billion yen through March 2026.
March 14, 2023 02:10 AM Eastern Daylight Time
TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (TOKYO:6503) announced today that it will double a previously announced its investment plan to approximately 260 billion yen in the five-year period to March 2026 mainly for constructing a new wafer plant to increase production of silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductors. Under the plan, Mitsubishi Electric expects to respond to rapidly increasing demand for SiC power semiconductors for electric vehicles as well as expanding markets for new applications that require, for example, low energy loss, high temperature operation or high-speed switching. The plan will also enable Mitsubishi Electric to contribute to the global green-transformation trend toward energy conservation and decarbonization.
A major portion of the increased investment, approximately 100 billion yen, will be used to construct a new 8-inch SiC wafer plant and enhance related production facilities. The new factory, which will incorporate an owned facility in the Shisui area of Kumamoto Prefecture, will produce large-diameter 8-inch SiC wafers, introduce a clean room featuring state-of-the-art energy efficiency and high-level automated production efficiency. In addition, the company will enhance its production facilities for 6-inch SiC wafers to meet growing demand in this sector as well.
In addition, Mitsubishi Electric will newly invest approximately 10 billion yen in a new factory that will consolidate existing operations, currently dispersed throughout the Fukuoka area, for the assembly and inspection of power semiconductors. The integration of design, development and production technology verification will greatly enhance the company's development capabilities and facilitate timely mass production in response to market demand. The remaining 20 billion yen, all new investment, will be targeted at equipment enhancements, environmental arrangements and related operations.
Mitsubishi Electric (MELCO) is a customer of Aixtron on GaN-on-Si for power semiconductors.
https://www.aixtron.com/en/investors/...Amplifier%2520Production_n342
https://www.resonac.com/news/2023/03/01/2372.html
Resonac was renamed from Showa Denko which is a customer of Aixtron's G5 WWC for SiC.
https://www.aixtron.com/en/press/press-releases/...on%2520System_n338
Business news | January 12, 2023
By Nick Flaherty
MATERIALS & PROCESSES
Resonac (formerly Showa Denko) in Japan has extended its deal for silicon carbide (SiC) wafers with Infineon Technologies as it restructures and renames.
https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/...uctures-extends-infineon-sic-deal/
Read post #1288 about Epiworld adding 22 SiC epiwafer lines (tools) in 2022 to reach a total of 50 SiC tools by end of 2022. That would be about 60m sales from Epiworld for Aixtron in 2022.
In 2023, Epiworld will add another 75 lines to add another 300,000 6"/8" SiC epiwafer capacity. That would be ~200m sales for Aixtron in 2023, if all goes to Aixtron.
http://www.sic2jg.com/news_x.php?id=1141&pid=2
"Among them, the main body of the 6-8 inch SiC epitaxial wafer research and development and industrialization project is Hantiancheng Electronic Technology (Xiamen) Co., Ltd. The project is located in Xiang'an High-tech Industrial Base, Xiamen City, and 75 new silicon carbide epitaxial wafer production lines have been added. (Supporting exhaust gas purifier), 1 set of pure water unit and other production equipment, it is estimated that the new production capacity will produce 300,000 silicon carbide epitaxial wafers per year."
Epiworld's Chinese name is Hantiancheng.
https://www.asm.com/Pages/Press-releases/...pid=2617427&from=home
"...The increase in new orders is partly driven by the acquisition of LPE, which experienced exceptionally strong orders in Q4, partially for delivery in the second half of 2023.... we expect LPE to generate revenue in excess of €130 million in 2023, up from our previous forecast of more than €100 million."
I believe the TYSIC (Tianyu) in China is the customer of LPE generating its large revenue. TYSIC is second to Epiworld in China on SiC epi wafers. TYSIC's web site shows it uses LPE tools. TYSIC is building an annual 170,000 6" SiC epi wafer capacity in 2023.
https://www.ledinside.cn/news/20230320-54648.html
"Among the first batch of major projects to start in 2023, Tianyu Semiconductor headquarters, manufacturing center and R&D center construction projects have a total investment of 8 billion, with a construction area of about 240,000 square meters, and will build a large-scale production base of silicon carbide epitaxial wafers with an annual production capacity of 1.2 million pieces , It is expected to complete the construction of the first phase of annual production capacity of 170,000 pieces in 2023."
Note that 170,000 epi wafers would have needed 75x170000/300000=42 G5/G10 tools, which would have been ~120m. I posted above that Epiworld is building a 300,000 epi wafer capacity requring 75 tools presumably using the AIXTRON's.
trommelt mal wieder zum Einstieg.
In der Ausgabe vom 10.03 mit "Analyse" und Kaufempfehlung für PVA Tepla (KZ 29) und Aixtron (KZ 36).
Aixtron adressiert mehrere Wachstumsmärkte, die teilweise noch in einer frühen Entwicklungsphase sind. Die Visibilität ist groß, negative strukturelle Veränderungen sind nicht in Sicht.
Die Gefahr operativer Enttäuschungen ist damit als gering einzustufen.
Das größte Risiko bleibt die relativ hohe Bewertung mit dem 5-fachen Umsatz und einem 2023er-KGV von 25. Angesichts der starken Positionierung und den kontinuierlich wachsenden Orderbüchern ist das Ende der Fahnenstange trotzdem noch nicht erreicht.
Gruß baggo-mh
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IFX raises Q2 and FY guidance due to strong demand from Auto and industrial end markets and positive mix effects
Stock +3% AH
https://www.finanznachrichten.de/...uartal-und-geschaeftsjahr-015.htm
add their results and comments into the Infineon/Aktionär Trade of the day mix from Monday and we have a share price of € 30,85.
Very nice, but we will get to see more in 2023 imho.
Gruß baggo-mh