Der USA Bären-Thread

hat heute Gläubigerschutz beantragt!  

Keine Pleite bei CFC nach Ch. 11.  Es geht um drei Briefe mit Nachforderungen, die nicht korrekt gewesen sein sollen. Der Countrywide-Anwalt behauptet, dieses drei Briefe seien gefälscht. Nun sollen die Briefe bei der für Bankrotte zuständigen Behörde überprüft werden. Bankrott war jedoch lediglich der Hausbesitzer, an den die drei Briefe gingen - was die Zuständigkeit dieser Behörde ins Spiel bringt.

Ich glaube, heute läuft eine massive Short-Attacke gegen Countrywide und Etrade Financials  sowie andere finanziell schwache Mortgage-Firmen. Deshalb wurden die Briefe von Countrywide auch "zufällig" heute entdeckt.

Tatsache hingegen ist, dass CFC einige Hausbesitzer riskante Verträge aufgeschwatzt hat. CFC ist der größte Homelender in USA.

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NEW YORK TIMES
Lender Tells Judge It ‘Recreated’ Letters

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Published: January 8, 2008

The Countrywide Financial Corporation fabricated documents related to the bankruptcy case of a Pennsylvania homeowner, court records show, raising new questions about the business practices of the giant mortgage lender at the center of the subprime mess.

The documents — three letters from Countrywide addressed to the homeowner — claimed that the borrower owed the company $4,700 because of discrepancies in escrow deductions [Vertragsermäßigungen]. Countrywide’s local counsel described the letters to the court as “recreated,” raising concern from the federal bankruptcy judge overseeing the case, Thomas P. Agresti.

“These letters are a smoking gun that something is not right in Denmark,” Judge Agresti said in a Dec. 20 hearing in Pittsburgh.

The emergence of the fabricated documents comes as Countrywide confronts a rising tide of complaints from borrowers who claim that the company pushed them into risky loans. The matter in Pittsburgh is one of 300 bankruptcy cases in which Countrywide’s practices have come under scrutiny in western Pennsylvania.

Judge Agresti said that discovery should proceed so that those involved in the case, including the Chapter 13 trustee for the western district of Pennsylvania and the United States trustee, could determine how Countrywide’s systems might generate such documents.

A spokesman for the lender, Rick Simon, said: “It is not Countrywide’s policy to create or ‘fabricate’ any documents as evidence that they were sent if they had not been. We believe it will be shown in further discovery that the Countrywide bankruptcy technician who generated the documents at issue did so as an efficient way to convey the dates the escrow analyses were done and the calculations of the payments as a result of the analyses.”

The documents were generated in a case involving Sharon Diane Hill, a homeowner in Monroeville, Pa. Ms. Hill filed for Chapter 13 bankruptcy protection in March 2001 to try to save her home from foreclosure.

After meeting her mortgage obligations under the 60-month bankruptcy plan, Ms. Hill’s case was discharged and officially closed on March 9, 2007. Countrywide, the servicer on her loan, did not object to the discharge; court records from that date show she was current on her mortgage.

But one month later, Ms. Hill received a notice of intention to foreclose from Countrywide, stating that she was in default and owed the company $4,166.

Court records show that the amount claimed by Countrywide was from the period during which Ms. Hill was making regular payments under the auspices of the bankruptcy court. They included “monthly charges” totaling $3,840 from November 2006 to April 2007, late charges of $128 and other charges of almost $200.

A lawyer representing Ms. Hill in her bankruptcy case, Kenneth Steidl, of Steidl and Steinberg in Pittsburgh, wrote Countrywide a few weeks later stating that Ms. Hill had been deemed current on her mortgage during the period in question. But in May, Countrywide sent Ms. Hill another notice stating that her loan was delinquent and demanding that she pay $4,715.58. Neither Mr. Steidl nor Julia Steidl, who has also represented Ms. Hill, returned phone calls seeking comment.

Justifying Ms. Hill’s arrears, Countrywide sent her lawyer copies of three letters on company letterhead addressed to the homeowner, as well as to Mr. Steidl and Ronda J. Winnecour, the Chapter 13 trustee for the western district of Pennsylvania.

The Countrywide letters were dated September 2003, October 2004 and March 2007 and showed changes in escrow requirements on Ms. Hill’s loan. “This letter is to advise you that the escrow requirement has changed per the escrow analysis completed today,” each letter began.

But Mr. Steidl told the court he had never received the letters. Furthermore, he noticed that his address on the first Countrywide letter was not the location of his office at the time, but an address he moved to later. Neither did the Chapter 13 trustee’s office have any record of receiving the letters, court records show.

When Mr. Steidl discussed this with Leslie E. Puida, Countrywide’s outside counsel on the case, he said Ms. Puida told him that the letters had been “recreated” by Countrywide to reflect the escrow discrepancies, the court transcript shows. During these discussions, Ms. Puida reduced the amount that Countrywide claimed Ms. Hill owed to $1,500 from $4,700.

Under questioning by the judge, Ms. Puida said that “a processor” at Countrywide had generated the letters to show how the escrow discrepancies arose. “They were not offered to prove that they had been sent,” Ms. Puida said. But she also said, under questioning from the court, that the letters did not carry a disclaimer indicating that they were not actual correspondence or that they had never been sent.

A Countrywide spokesman said that in bankruptcy cases, Countrywide’s automated systems are sometimes overridden, with technicians making manual adjustments “to comply with bankruptcy laws and the requirements in the jurisdiction in which a bankruptcy is pending.” Asked by Judge Agresti why Countrywide would go to the trouble of “creating a letter that was never sent,” Ms. Puida, its lawyer, said she did not know.

“I just, I can’t get over what I’m being told here about these recreations,” Judge Agresti said, “and what the purpose is or was and what was intended by them.”

Ms. Hill’s matter is one of 300 bankruptcy cases involving Countrywide that have come under scrutiny by Ms. Winnecour, the Chapter 13 trustee in Pittsburgh. On Oct. 9, she asked the court to sanction Countrywide, contending that the company had lost or destroyed more than $500,000 in checks paid by homeowners in bankruptcy from December 2005 to April 2007.

Ms. Winnecour said in court filings that she was concerned that even as Countrywide had misplaced or destroyed the checks, it levied charges on the borrowers, including late fees and legal costs. A spokesman in her office said she would not comment on the Hill case.

O. Max Gardner III, a lawyer in North Carolina who represents troubled borrowers, says that he routinely sees lenders pursue borrowers for additional money after their bankruptcies have been discharged and the courts have determined that the default has been cured and borrowers are current. Regarding the Hill matter, Mr. Gardner said: “The real problem in my mind when reading the transcript is that Countrywide’s lawyer could not explain how this happened.”  

leute mitlesen, stelle ich den link einfach mal hier rein , auch wenn nur 10 prozent mit dem us-markt zu tun haben.

sehr lesenswert und konzentriert, wie ich finde und dazu noch von einem geldhaus,

die sagen wohl, was andere denken.www.effektenbank.de/quirin/cms/effektenbank/...performance_okt_07.pdf

allein die erste seite ist schon gut aufgemacht, so rein optisch, aber das ist lange nicht alles.

 

 

ps: tschau biomüll, schade das du nicht mehr postest.

jetzt müssen andere wohl den goldbullen reiten/posten.

Bär Doug Kass rät, jetzt einen 3 bis 4 % Move nach oben in den Indizes mitzunehmen. Danach soll es dann weiter runter gehen. Damit hatte ich Fr. ja ebenfalls gerechnet, zum Spott meiner Mitbären hier ;-))

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Investing
Ignore Pollyannas, Take the 3%-4%
By Doug Kass
Street.com Contributor
1/8/2008 12:49 PM EST


My "seeing eye" says that I should back off from my bearishness over the short term -- if only for a couple of percent rise.

I believe a momentum low might have been hit on Friday and that there was some evidence of bullish divergences beginning to appear yesterday. And I suspect, over the short term, equities might hold yesterday's S&P low of 1406.

Could it be that the concerns I have voiced over the past two years have now been discounted in the markets? After all, Citigroup (C) no longer trades at $54 per share; it stands at $28. As well, the stochastics are starting to flash green (buy).

If we are seeing some positive signals, it's not due to the constant harping of market commentators that all has been well.

Over the past two years, I have chronicled the likely deterioration in the U.S. economy -- first on the basis of the ramifications of the spillover in housing and later owing to the developing subprime crisis and its likely impact on the ladder of credit.

I opined that the impending seize-up in the credit markets coupled with broad investor optimism laid the foundation for weakening personal consumption expenditures, capital spending and a drop in equities.

Citing my concerns in more public forums led to criticism and even sometimes ad hominem attacks from permabulls, whose dogmatic "happy talk" continued daily.

Those permabulls, in the main, have now retreated to discussions of the long term, as the short term has grown uncomfortably clouded on many fronts. Credit markets remain in disarray, our leading financial institutions have lost billions of dollars of permanent capital, profits are turning negative, and the credit markets signal a "flight to quality."

The shibboleths of "Goldilocks," "America is on sale" and "the greatest story never told" have become catchwords for the permabulls.

Surprise, surprise -- the world's economies are cyclical, the credit markets are nonsupportive of a material expansion in foreign acquisitions of U.S. corporations, and the U.S. economy/stock market turned out to be the greatest story ever sold.

Stated simply, those shibboleths have failed to occur and have failed to sustain and buoy U.S. equities.

There is no crying in baseball, stock markets or politics.

Even the smart guys are getting schmeissed in this increasingly hostile equity market, as the economic changes are coinciding with political change, which seems to bring with it a rising tide of trade protectionism and higher tax rates for individuals and corporations.

Meanwhile, our recessionary fears have grown kinetic, as evidenced by the Baltic Dry Index chart UNTEN.

"Although those quantitatively inclined would disagree, to me, investing is much more an art than a science. Intelligence, experience, diligence, a knowledge of history, an open mind and an obsessive nature are all important ingredients for the successful hedgehog -- as are intuition, imagination, flexibility and maybe just a touch of the seeing eye. How you mix and match, or what is the optimal combination of these characteristics, is beyond me. There is no single style. ...

"[F] or all its frustrations, being a professional investor is still the most intriguing, challenging and overcompensated occupation in the world.... Only egotists or fools try to pick tops and bottoms."
   --Barton Biggs, Hedge Hogging

Barton Biggs' Hedge Hogging is one of my favorite books on investing of all time. (I particularly loved Chapter Four, "Short Selling Is Not for Sissies," as well the section on my buddy, the Bearded Prophet of the Apocalypse.)

Biggs is right: " [I] t's hard to be a hedgehog." And picking tops and bottoms may be only for egotists. Nevertheless, in a substandard return market, gaming 3% to 4% market moves can lead to superior investment returns.

That said, arguably, market participants' complacency in the early fall of 2007 has now been substituted with frustration and acceptance. Just ask Jim "El Capitan" Cramer, who, maybe justifiably, wants to puke [kotzen - A.L.] when he looks at stock prices.

That emotion is an important ingredient for the market's stabilization/improvement.

If you are looking for dogma, watch TV, as you are in the wrong place if you are reading my column.

The apocalypse may not yet be here.

---

Baltic Dry Index  

http://www.hussmanfunds.net/wmc/wmc080107.htm....As I noted in my December 17 comment, “there is one particular scenario that would be ominous in my view. That would be if we see a relatively uninterrupted series of declines that breaks cleanly through the August and November lows, followed by a one-day advance of 200-400 Dow points. That's a script that markets tend to follow pre-crash. Though it's not a strong expectation or forecast, it's something worth monitoring, because we've started to see the pattern of abrupt jumps and declines at 10-minute intervals that is often a hallmark of nervous markets.”

Among various stock indices, the Value Line Composite and the equal-weighted S&P 500 indices broke cleanly through the August and November lows last week. Several capitalization-weighted indices held just above those lows on a daily closing basis, but on the basis of weekly closing values (which we generally ascribe more weight), even the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials broke their prior lows.
The stock market is oversold short-term, which invites the potential for a spectacular “clearing rally” of the typical variety – fast, furious, and prone to failure. While such an upward spike might be embraced as some sort of message that the market has “fully discounted” negative conditions and mark a successful “test” of prior lows, the data suggest that underlying market and economic conditions are rapidly deteriorating. In that context, a spectacular short-term rally (particularly a one-day barn burner) could provide a setup for concerted selling. As usual, I have no intention of encouraging investors to depart from well constructed investment plans, but investors should recognize that a 30% market decline is only a standard run-of-the-mill  bear. It's a good idea to evaluate your investment portfolio to ensure you could tolerate that outcome, should it occur, without abandoning your discipline.

Economic slowdowns, even short of recessions, typically feature substantial contraction of profit margins. Given the solid wage inflation numbers we're observing, and the fact that the extremely elevated profit margins of recent years have been driven primarily by a suppressed wage share, it is clear that earnings shortfalls are likely to run well beyond financials.

On the mortgage front, it is important to reiterate that the swell in mortgage refinancings only began in October, and will continue well into 2009. Though Treasury yields have plunged, market lending rates such as LIBOR, commercial paper, BAA rates and so forth have been much stickier, so it is not at all clear that the rush to the safety of Treasuries (and the inevitable willingness of the Fed to align the Fed Funds rate lower in response) will result in meaningfully lower refinancing burdens. In the typical foreclosure event, there is first a burdensome reset, followed by several months of attempted payments, followed by several months of delinquency, and only then by foreclosure action. Given that the heavy resets only started in October, we are still about two or three quarters away from the really serious credit losses, foreclosures and writedowns.

To imagine that financial companies can simply “come clean” and “just put their cards on the table” assumes that lenders actually know which loans are facing default, and how many. But lenders are still months away from even finding that out. Meanwhile, publicly traded financials face a double-edged sword if they boost loan loss reserves too much in advance, because the SEC discourages it as a potential method of “managing” and misrepresenting ongoing earnings. Finally, with funding sources becoming more risk averse, my impression is that major banks will inevitably be forced to sharply cut their dividends in an attempt to maintain capital. This possibility is increasingly being discussed, but is not fully discounted as a fait accompli.

On the economic front, as I noted in November, the data already indicate the likelihood of a U.S. recession. Last week's poor ISM and employment reports add further confirmation to this expectation, particularly given that total non-farm employment has grown by less than 1% over the past year, less than 0.5% over the past 6 months, and the unemployment rate has spiked 0.6% from its 12-month low (all of which have historically indicated oncoming recessions). The ECRI Weekly Leading Index is now clearly contracting as well. The expectation of oncoming recession may be gaining some amount of sponsorship, but it is still far from the consensus view, and is therefore most probably far from being fully discounted in stock prices.
In short, if the potential negatives such as profit margin contraction and credit problems turn out to be only passing, minor events, then it might be true that the market has fully discounted them. We can certainly allow for that possibility, because we are not net short in any event. However, my impression is that the scope of these problems is likely to be much broader than anticipated at present, and that the combination of worsening outcomes and a growing consensus could result in substantially more weakness than we've observed thus far......  

und ich hatte schon gedacht, ich wäre der einzige hier, der long dabei ist...
meine vermututng: leichte erholung bis ende der woche um dann wieder kurs in die gewünschte richtung zu nehmen  

Ich wäre mir da nicht so sicher. Zwar es "smart" und "en vogue", als Bär eine Erholung einzuplanen, doch liegt mE Sharky richtiger, wenn er nun von einer grundsätzlichen Änderung des Marktsentiments spricht. Die "Slope Of Hope" ist ein gutes Bild.

Was ich damit meine:

Wir Bären sind ein Jahr lang ständig auf die Fresse gefallen, wenn wir auf einen markanten Rutsch spekulierten. Nun ist es wohl soweit, dass wir - obwohl wir es noch nicht glauben können (und die Bullen auch nicht) - auf der richtigen Seite des Marktes stehen.

Die Marktbewegungen gestern und heute zeigen eindeutig, dass immer wieder viele Leute auf eine Erholung hoffen ("JEtzt aber muss sie ja mal kommen!"), die aber trotzdem sofort wieder abverkauft wird. Diese Leute verlieren also ständig Geld an andere, smartere, die die Erholung zum Abbau von Beständen nutzen. Es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis die dummen Käufer keinen Bock mehr haben sich vom Markt verarschen zu lassen.

Daher sehe ich anderes als 99% der anderen Marktteilnehmer in den nächsten Tagen keine Erholung, sondern im Gegenteil eine Kapitulation des Marktes, sprich einen schnellen Abverkauf. Erst dieser wird die Grundlage für eine Zwischenerholung legen.

Fazit: Weiter short bleiben, aber Stops beachten da man sich seiner Meinung nie sicher sein darf.  

... fasst das Feeling der "dummen Käufer" soeben in einem Satz zusammen:

http://www.ariva.de/...h_hab_die_schnautze_voll_scheiss_dreck_t314975

-150 Dow-Punkte in 10 Minuten sind ja auch etwas zuviel des Guten ;-) Der arme lackilu...  

Der markt spinnt halt mal wieder. Was ist denn diesmal die Begründung?!


Hier die angekündigten Consumercredit Daten, grade Kreditkartenschulden expandieren weiter sehr stark, wie auch schon der bereits gepostete chartheute nachmittag zeigte.

U.S. Nov. consumer credit up $15.5 billion, or 7.5% rate
By Rex Nutting


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumers took on more debt in November, increasing their credit-card balances at the fourth fastest pace during the six-year expansion, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt increased by $15.5 billion, or a 7.5% annual rate, in November to $2.51 trillion after a revised 1% rise in October, the Fed reported. It was the biggest gain in outstanding debt since August. Credit-card debt rose by $8.7 billion, or 11.3%, in November to $937 billion after an 8.6% gain in October. Non-revolving credit - such as auto loans, personal loans and student loans - increased by $6.7 billion, or 5.2%, to $1.57 trillion after a 3.5% drop in October.  

Habe mir gerade den CHart nochmals angeschaut:

 

Hellblau stehen wir jetzt bei11,3% und damit fast auf dem High von 2001 und dunkelblau bei 5,2%. Die daten sind noch nicht im Chart eingezeichnet.
Wenns in den Tempo weitergeht haben wir bald ein neues 10-Jahreshoch -und das mitten in einer Kreditkriese.

 

In einem Bärenmarkt die Erholungen zu spielen IST smart -nicht erst seit gestern- und es ist auf herrlich zeitlose Weise immer en vogue.
Weils reich macht, wenn es funzt.
Gestern, heute und morgen.
Nur verdammt schwer.

Und besonders schwer in einem Markt, der von so vielen manipulativen Faktoren abhängt wie der Derzeitige. Ich nenn ihn daher einfach mal wieder Rothschild-Markt.

;))

Ich hoffe du behälst insgesamt recht (und zwar nicht nur für HEUTE), doch ich fürchte Benny wird uns am Donnerstag, 19:00 einen Strich durch die Rechnung machen!  

See you in the trenches, and bring your crash helmet with you ;-))  

Prozentpunkte werden es sein  

 

...mhhh... najagut.
Ist alles unberechenbar wie nochwas.
Ziemlich anstrengend der Markt.

Einfach mal so von 12880 auf 12620 am Stück runterzubrechen... tststs... das sind 260Pkte in nichtmal einer Stunde.
Bin etwas verdutzt, wenn auch erfreut!  

 

America's inflated asset prices must fall
By Stephen Roach Mon Jan 7, 1:05 PM ET

The US has been the main culprit behind the destabilising global imbalances of recent years. America's massive current account deficit absorbs about 75 per cent of the world's surplus saving. Most believe that a weaker US dollar is the best cure for these imbalances. Yet a broad measure of the US dollar has dropped 23 per cent since February 2002 in real terms, with only minimal impact on America's gaping external imbalance. Dollar bears argue that more currency depreciation is needed. Protectionists insist that China - which has the largest bilateral trade imbalance with the US - should bear a disproportionate share of the next downleg in the US dollar.

There is good reason to doubt this view. America's current account deficit is due more to bubbles in asset prices than to a misaligned dollar. A resolution will require more of a correction in asset prices than a further depreciation of the dollar. At the core of the problem is one of the most insidious characteristics of an asset-dependent economy - a chronic shortfall in domestic saving. With America's net national saving averaging a mere 1.4 per cent of national income over the past five years, the US has had to import surplus saving from abroad to keep growing. That means it must run massive current account and trade deficits to attract the foreign capital.

America's aversion toward saving did not appear out of thin air. Waves of asset appreciation - first equities and, more recently, residential property - convinced citizens that a new era was at hand. Reinforced by a monstrous bubble of cheap credit, there was little perceived need to save the old-fashioned way - out of income. Assets became the preferred vehicle of choice.

With one bubble begetting another, America's imbalances rose to epic proportions. Despite generally subpar income generation, private consumption soared to a record 72 per cent of real gross domestic product in 2007. Household debt hit a record 133 per cent of disposable personal income. And income-based measures of personal saving moved back into negative territory in late 2007.

None of these trends is sustainable. It is only a question of when they give way and what it takes to spark a long overdue rebalancing. A sharp decline in asset prices is necessary to rebalance the US economy. It is the only realistic hope to shift the mix of saving away from asset appreciation back to that supported by income generation. That could entail as much as a 20-30 per cent decline in overall US housing prices and a related deflating of the bubble of cheap and easy credit.

Those trends now appear to be under way. Reflecting an outsize imbalance between supply and demand for new homes, residential property prices fell 6 per cent in the year ending October 2007 for 20 major metropolitan areas in the US, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Index. Most likely, this foretells a broader downturn in nationwide home prices in 2008 that could continue into 2009. Meanwhile, courtesy of the subprime crisis, the credit bubble has popped - ending the cut-rate funding that fuelled the housing bubble.

As home prices move into a protracted period of decline, consumers will finally recognise the perils of bubble-distorted saving strategies. Financially battered households will respond by rebuilding income-based saving balances. That means the consumption share of gross domestic product will fall and the US economy will most likely tumble into recession.

America's shift back to income-supported saving will be a pivotal development for the rest of the world. As consumption slows and household saving rises in the US, the need to import surplus saving from abroad will diminish. Demand for foreign capital will recede - leading to a reduction of both the US current-account and trade deficits. The global economy will emerge bruised, but much better balanced.

Washington policymakers and politicians need to stand back and let this adjustment play out. Yet the US body politic is panicking in response - underwriting massive liquidity injections that produce another asset bubble and proposing fiscal pump-priming that would depress domestic saving even further. Such actions can only compound the problems that got America into this mess in the first place.

China-bashers in the US Congress also need to stand down. America does not have a China problem - it has a multilateral trade deficit with over 40 countries. The China bilateral imbalance may be the biggest contributor to the overall US trade imbalance but, in large part, this is a result of supply-chain decisions by US multinationals.

By focusing incorrectly on the dollar and putting pressure on the Chinese currency, Congress would only shift China's portion of the US trade deficit elsewhere - most likely to a higher-cost producer. That would be the same as a tax hike on American workers. If the US returns to income-based saving in the aftermath of the bursting of housing and credit bubbles, its multilateral trade deficit will narrow and the Chinese bilateral imbalance will shrink.

It is going to be a very painful process to break the addiction to asset-led behaviour. No one wants recessions, asset deflation and rising unemployment. But this has always been the potential endgame of a bubble-prone US economy. The longer America puts off this reckoning, the steeper the ultimate price of adjustment. Tough as it is, the only sensible way out is to let markets lead the way. That is what the long overdue bursting of America's asset and credit bubbles is all about.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080107/bs_ft/..._522SCo0vjzHOs.Lr5b2ULEF  

"In einem Bärenmarkt die Erholungen zu spielen IST smart -nicht erst seit gestern- und es ist auf herrlich zeitlose Weise immer en vogue.
Weils reich macht, wenn es funzt."

Genau. Und heute nicht. Denn es macht arm, wenn es NICHT funzt.

Eine Erholung zu spielen macht nur dann Sinn wenn sie auch wirklich wahrscheinlich ist. Das ist sie wie ich geschrieben habe zunächst noch NICHT. (Beachte mein Posting oben, da war der SP noch über 1410, jetzt 1400 also signifikant unter der wichtigen Unterstützung)

Nun muss der Abverkauf (Meine Vermutung: SP 1360 in zwei Tagen) abgewartet werden, erst dann wird es wieder aufwärts gehen. Ein Long macht jedenfalls in der derzeitigen Lage keinen Sinn, weil er klar kontra-trend wäre. Da verbrenne ich mein Geld lieber im Kamin, da kann man sich wenigstens noch ein paar warme Gedanken bei machen...

Short is on!

 

08.01.2008 - 19:32
Chicagoer Einkaufsmanagerindex im Dezember niedriger      


 
Chicago (BoerseGo.de) – Der nationale Verband der Einkaufsmanager hat den Dezember-Wert für den von ihm herausgegebenen Einkaufsmanagerindex deutlich von ursprünglich 56,6 Punkten auf 52 Punkte nach unten revidiert. Ein Wert über 50 Punkte zeigt wirtschaftliche Expansion an, während ein Wert unterhalb von 50 Punkten von einem Stillstand oder einer rückläufigen Wirtschaftentwicklung ausgeht.

 
(© BörseGo AG 2007 - http://www.boerse-go.de, Autor: Wolf Andreas, Redakteur)  
 

 

Die Zinssenkungshoffnung ist heute verpufft und Benny wird es am Donnerstag auch nicht drehen. Wer meint, Benny hätte eine V2 ("kriegsentscheidende Wunderwaffe", V1 war die Diskontsenkung im August) im Köcher wird am Donnerstag eines besseren belehrt werden. Denn:

1) Hätte er eine, wäre JETZT der richtige Zeitpunkt sie einzusetzen. Benny ist kein egomanischer Politiker, der wie Genscher damals in Prag die "frohe Kunde" persönlich verkünden wollen würde. Er muss also nicht auf seinen Redetermin warten.

2) Benny ist ehrlich genug, die miese Lage einzugestehen. Zu beschönigen gibt es nichts, höchstens eine Rezessionswahrscheinlichkeit < 50% (haha) zu verkünden.

Fazit: Benny wird es auch nicht drehen, der Markt muss sich selbst helfen. Das kann er nur durch den Rauswurf der Zittrigen.  

Ich zünde gleich ein Freudenfeuer mit meinen Shortgewinnen im Garten an!  

Da muß man sich doch fragen, ob die noch ganz sauber sind!
Da werden Zahlen veröffentlicht und dann ein paar Tage später heimlich, still und leise einfach mal um fast 10% revidiert.
Das ist reine VERARSCHE!!!
Ich liebe die USA (reise oft dort hin).
Aber diese Administration mit der ganzen Öl-, Rüstungs- und Finanzmafia gehört einfach nur hinter Schloss und Riegel!
 

mein DB242P freut sich.
mfg nf

werden als die schlimmsten in die Börsengeschichte eingehen.

Vor einer Woche wurde überall noch von Dax 9000 gelabert. Bin mal gespannt auf morgen!  

für euch..
Nachrichten

USA: Regional-Feds laut Minutes uneinig über Zinspolitik


Washington (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve (Fed) hat am Dienstag das ausführliche Sitzungsprotokoll der letzten Zusammenkünfte des Fed-Boards im November und Dezember veröffentlicht. Am 11. Dezember hatte die Fed nach Abstimmungen im Offenmarktausschuss FOMC und im Fed Board of Governors die Zinsen um 25 Basispunkte auf 4,25 Prozent gesenkt. Daneben war auch der Diskontsatz um 25 Basispunkte auf 4,75 Prozent reduziert worden.

Wie aus den Protokollen hervorgeht haben drei der insgesamt zwölf Regional-Feds eine höhere Leitzinssenkung von 50 Basispunkten befürwortet. Zwei Regional-Feds wiederum sprachen sich gegen eine Leitzinsänderung aus. Die restlichen sieben Regional-Feds stimmten für die Senkung um 25 Basispunkte