Der USA Bären-Thread

Geld aus; hehehe;
ich muß zugeben, ich hatte auch einen Rebound erwartet.  

RT-Stand um 16:35 NDX = 1931 (- 1.7 %)  

die Bullen geben auf und die Bären haben bereits ihre Shorts reduziert?  

Hört eben auf den alten Metro. My Nose is my Castle, wie der alte Kosto schon sagte ;-)))

Nun muss noch der Dax klein beigeben und Metro ist glücklich...  

January 06, 2008

Global Food Crisis -- Credit Crunch Could Pale in Comparison
by Randy
 

Grains, food inflation give markets a jolt

Soaring world grain prices will keep driving food price inflation in 2008 as China and India carve out a bigger place at the table and a new dinner guest -- biofuels -- threatens to become the biggest glutton of all.

In 2007, Chicago Board of Trade prices -- world benchmarks for wheat, corn, rice and soybeans -- soared despite big U.S. harvests. Wheat prices rose 90 percent, soybeans 80 percent, corn 20 percent. U.S. prices are key because America is still the world's breadbasket, the single biggest grain exporter.

"The fact we're having higher commodity prices here will have an impact around the world on food prices," Lapp said.

Bill Lapp, former economist for food giant Conagra Foods Inc said the U.S. producer prices for food for the first 11 months of 2007 rose at an annualized rate of 7.5 percent, the highest since 1980, with the exception of the year 2003.

"We've only started to see the impact of higher costs translate into higher consumer prices," Lapp said.

One indicator that markets are watching more closely than even U.S. prices is world grain stocks. U.S. wheat stocks in 2008 will hit a 60-year low and world barley stocks a 42-year low. Global oilseed stocks are projected down 22 percent in one year.

Rice Prices Are Steaming, With Many Implications

The global commodities boom that has lifted prices of everything from gasoline to gold is now elevating rice -- a staple food for half of the world -- to its highest level in nearly 20 years.

A particular humanitarian concern is that the world's poorest consumers, many dependent on rice, often have little or no voice. "When they suffer food shortages, they starve in silence," says Joachim von Braun, director general at the International Food Policy Research Institute.

Lowest Food Supplies in 50 or 100 Years

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first projections of world grain supply and demand for the coming crop year: 2007/08. USDA predicts supplies will plunge to a 53-day equivalent-their lowest level in the 47-year period for which data exists.

"The USDA projects global grain supplies will drop to their lowest levels on record. Further, it is likely that, outside of wartime, global grain supplies have not been this low in a century, perhaps longer," said NFU Director of Research Darrin Qualman .

Most important, 2007/08 will mark the seventh year out of the past eight in which global grain production has fallen short of demand. This consistent shortfall has cut supplies in half-down from a 115-day supply in 1999/00 to the current level of 53 days. "The world is consistently failing to produce as much grain as it uses," said Qualman. He continued: "The current low supply levels are not the result of a transient weather event or an isolated production problem: low supplies are the result of a persistent drawdown trend."

In addition to falling grain supplies, global fisheries are faltering. Reports in respected journals Science and Nature state that 1/3 of ocean fisheries are in collapse, 2/3 will be in collapse by 2025, and our ocean fisheries may be virtually gone by 2048. "Aquatic food systems are collapsing, and terrestrial food systems are under tremendous stress," said Qualman.

Severe food shortages, price spikes threaten world population

Worldwide food prices have risen sharply and supplies have dropped this year, according to the latest food outlook of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. The agency warned December 17 that the changes represent an "unforeseen and unprecedented" shift in the global food system, threatening billions with hunger and decreased access to food.

The USDA has cautioned that wheat exporters in the US have already sold more than 90 percent of what the department had expected to be exported during the fiscal year ending June 2008. This has dire consequences for the world's poor, whose diets consist largely of cereal grains imported from the United States and other major producers.

The food crisis is intensifying social discontent and raising the likelihood of social upheavals. The FAO notes that political unrest "directly linked to food markets" has developed in Morocco, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Guinea, Mauritania and Senegal. In the past year, cereal prices have triggered riots in several other countries, including Mexico, where tortilla prices were pushed up 60 percent. In Italy, the rising cost of pasta prompted nationwide protests. Unrest in China has also been linked to cooking oil shortages.

All national governments are keenly aware of the possibility of civil unrest in the event of severe food shortages or famine, and many have taken minimal steps to ease the crisis in the short term, such as reducing import tariffs and erecting export restrictions. On December 20, China did away with food export rebates in an effort to stave off domestic shortfalls. Russia, Kazakhstan, and Argentina have also implemented export controls.

But such policies cannot adequately cope with the crisis in the food system because they do not address the causes, only the immediate symptoms. Behind the inflation are the complex inter-linkages of global markets and the fundamental incompatibility of the capitalist system with the needs of billions of poor and working people.

As the housing market in the United States collapsed, compounding problems in the credit market and threatening recession, speculation shifted to the commodities markets, exacerbating inflation in basic goods and materials. The international food market is particularly prone to volatility because current prices are greatly influenced by speculation over future commodity prices. This speculation can then trigger more volatility, encouraging more speculation.

The rising oil price not only affects the costs of transportation and importation. It also has a direct impact on the costs of farm operation in the working of agricultural and industrial processing machinery. Moreover, fertilizer, which takes its key component, nitrogen, from natural gas, is also spiking in price because of the impact of rising oil prices on the demand and costs of other fuels. By the same token, as oil prices rise, the demand for biofuel sources such as corn, sugarcane, and soybeans also rises, resulting in more and more feedstock crops being devoted to fuel and additives production.

BMO strategist Donald Coxe warns credit crunch and soaring oil prices will pale in comparison to looming catastrophe.

A new crisis is emerging, a global food catastrophe that will reach further and be more crippling than anything the world has ever seen. The credit crunch and the reverberations of soaring oil prices around the world will pale in comparison to what is about to transpire, Donald Coxe, global portfolio strategist at BMO Financial Group said at the Empire Club's 14th annual investment outlook in Toronto on Thursday.

"It's not a matter of if, but when," he warned investors. "It's going to hit this year hard."

Mr. Coxe said the sharp rise in raw food prices in the past year will intensify in the next few years amid increased demand for meat and dairy products from the growing middle classes of countries such as China and India as well as heavy demand from the biofuels industry.

"The greatest challenge to the world is not US$100 oil; it's getting enough food so that the new middle class can eat the way our middle class does, and that means we've got to expand food output dramatically," he said.

Wheat prices alone have risen 92% in the past year, and yesterday closed at US$9.45 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

At the centre of the imminent food catastrophe is corn - the main staple of the ethanol industry. The price of corn has risen about 44% over the past 15 months, closing at US$4.66 a bushel on the CBOT yesterday - its best finish since June 1996.

This not only impacts the price of food products made using grains, but also the price of meat, with feed prices for livestock also increasing.

"You're going to have real problems in countries that are food short, because we're already getting embargoes on food exports from countries, who were trying desperately to sell their stuff before, but now they're embargoing exports," he said, citing Russia and India as examples.

So, what is the take-away from this post?

I expect 2008 to bring much higher food prices around the globe. The main issue for US consumers (baring any calamity) will be significantly increased costs to feed the family, but we will probably see much more civil unrest and famine around the world.

On the other hand, if we do experience some type of calamity in 2008 or if food stockpiles continue to decline in the out years, we could potentially see one hell of a problem.

As an aside, I spent many months in Somalia back in 1992/93 as Operation Restore Hope (A United Nations Humanitarian Effort--before Blackhawk Down) tried to put food supplies in the hands of the starving (vs the controlling Warlords) and let me tell you, it was the most appalling thing I have ever witnessed... Thousands upon thousands of skeletal shells of human beings, trying to survive any way they could--the smell of death hanging in the stale air as untold numbers of bodies slowly decayed beneath shallow improvised graves baking in the desert sun...

Lets hope/pray we never experience something like this on our continent.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9165.htm

--------------------------------------------------
Ein Verwandter von mir ist Agrarexperte und kennt u.a. die US-Agrarwirtschaft sehr gut:

"Amerikanische Farmer haben mit Nachhaltigkeit nichts am Hut. Sie powern, was das Zeug hält, mit Kunstdünger und versalzen damit zunehmend die Böden. Dies wird sich in wenigen Jahren bitter rächen. Hinzu kommen in etlichen Regionen sinkende Grundwasserspiegel. Die Versteppung schreitet unaufhaltsam voran."





 

POLITIK/'CNN': Iranische Boote bedrohten US-Schiffe im Persischen Golf
07.01.08 16:53

WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Im Persischen Golf sind nach einem Bericht des US-Senders CNN vom Montag amerikanische Marineschiffe von iranischen Booten der Revolutionsgarden "belästigt und extrem provoziert" worden. Danach ereignete sich der Vorfall am Samstag in der Straße von Hormus. Wie CNN unter Berufung auf US-Militärs berichtete, machten die fünf iranischen Boote "bedrohliche Bewegungen": Sie hätten sich den drei Marineschiffen sehr stark genähert, in einem Fall bis auf eine Entfernung von nur etwa 180 Metern. Zudem hätten die Iraner Funksprüche mit Drohungen ausgesendet. In einem von ihnen habe es geheißen: "Ich gehe Euch an den Kragen. Ihr werdet in ein paar Minuten explodieren." Auf den US-Schiffen seien daraufhin die Geschützstellungen bemannt worden, und Offiziere hätten kurz vor dem Feuerbefehl gestanden, als die iranischen Boote abgedreht seien. Eines habe zuvor weiße Behälter ins Meer abgeworfen. Der Inhalt sei unbekannt, zitierte CNN das US-Militär weiter, das dem Sender zufolge von einer der schwersten Provokationen auf See seit Jahren sprach./tm/DP/stw  

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/finhome/topstories/...wall_street.html  

für mortgage Krise. Erstaunliche Wendung, daß ein hochrangiger Politker sowas von sich gibt.


"By preventing avoidable foreclosures, we will safeguard neighborhoods and communities and fulfill our responsibility of protecting the broader U.S. economy," Paulson said in excerpts of his speech released by Treasury. "However, let me be clear: there is no single or simple solution that will undo the excesses of the last few years."

"After years of unsustainable price appreciation and lax lending practices, a housing correction is inevitable and necessary," Paulson said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080107/paulson_housing.html  

Am WE gab es ein Spitzengespräch zum Thema. Wenn Paulson sowas heute von sich gibt kann das nur eines bedeuten: Die Bush-Regierung/Bernanke werden keine ernsthaften Versuche mehr unternehmen den Housing-Zug zu stoppen, sondern haben entschieden, dass er durch das Tal der Tränen muss.

Sehr vernünftig: Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende. Besser es kannlt jetzt im Frühjahr heftig um im Herbst wieder aufwärts zu gehen als noch jahrelang herumzuwursteln.  

 

zugelegt, als Bär mag man es eben "schwierig". ;-)

Kann sein, dass ich sie schnell wieder gebe, aber ohne "Shorts" bei DAX7800 fühl ich mich eben unwohl. ;-)  

schon groß tun können? metro, deshalb kann ich Deine Aussage nicht verstehen. Welche Alternativen hättest Du gesehen?

Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende. Besser es kannlt jetzt im Frühjahr heftig um im Herbst wieder aufwärts zu gehen als noch jahrelang herumzuwursteln.

 

Ich bin kein VWLer und weiß nicht welche Alternativen es gegeben hätte. Aber ich kenne mich in Politik aus. Paulson hat durch die Blume gesagt: "Sorry, boys. Ihr müßt jetzt eure Suppe selber auslöffeln." Dieser Beschluss der US-Regierung war vernünftig und zu erwarten. Einige Träumer haben ja auf einen Bail-Out der US-Regierung oder der FED gehofft. Als Bär kann man sich nun sicher sein, dass der nicht mehr kommen wird, sei es durch Steuererleichtungen, Gesetzesänderungen oder so. Einzig die FED wird weiter senken, as usual.  

hat gesprochen.
Viel Blabla. Sorgen wegen Inflation und Überspringen der Kreditkrise. Nichts neues.
Interessanterweise meinte er in einem Nebensatz, die (seine) Vorstellung, dass sich inflationsdaten im 1HJ. 2008 bessern, könnte zu optimistisch sein. Ebenso wie eine geringe Verbesserung des Wachstums.

Morgen kommt Plosser,
Mi Poole,
Do 19:00 Thomas Hoenig und BENNY!
Und am Freitag dann MISHKIN.
Nicht vergessen, die letzteren beiden sind wichtig.

Die davor sagen mal dies mal das und dürften auch bestimmt mal was Börsennegatives falkenmäßiges von sich geben.
Aber was auch immer die davor sagen: Benny wird es (versuchen zu) relativieren und Mishkin ebenfalls.
Beides Doves.
Also Donnerstag und Freitag könnten verbale Stützungen anstehen.

Was davor kommt lässt sich nicht leicht sagen, es könnte auch schlecht für die Börse sein.


Heute war erstmal Dennis Lockhard dran:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/...D1F%2D8005%2D3BA8D2596074%7D

THE FED
Financial markets still unsettled, Lockhart says

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The biggest danger to the U.S. economy right now is that financial markets could remain unsettled, said Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on Monday.

In remarks prepared for delivery in Atlanta, Lockhart delivered a "sober" message about the economic outlook, stressing the uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and inflation. Read the full text.
"The negatives in our economy may be gaining momentum," he said.
Policymakers must respond "pragmatically."
Lockhart participates in discussions in the Federal Open Market Committee, but is not a voting member this year.
Lockhart said he expects "sluggish" growth in the first half of the year before a gradual improvement. He expects inflation to moderate in 2008, but said his forecast could be too optimistic.
"I'm troubled by the elevated level of inflation," he said.
"To a large extent, my outlook for this year's economic performance hinges on how financial markets deal with their problems," he said. "The coming weeks could be telling."
"The pivotal question -- the central uncertainty -- is the extent of current and future spillover from housing and financial markets to the general economy," Lockhart said.
The effect of falling home prices on consumer spending and the impact of distressed credit markets on business investment will be the keys to the economy's performance in 2008, he said.
Lockhart urged financial firms to come to the confessional and disclose their potential losses.
"To restore market confidence, leading financial firms, I believe, must recognize and disclose losses based on unimpeachable valuation calculations, restore capital and liquidity ratios, and urgently execute the strenuous task of updating risk assessments of scores of counterparties," he said.
The imbalances in the housing, mortgage and credit markers may need "much of 2008 to play out," he said. But he was optimistic that markets would adjust.



 

Schuldenübernahme durch die Regierung oder Fed gehofft haben, schwebten und schweben auf Wolke Sieben. Das wäre ohne große Gesetzesänderungen inklusive Verfassungsänderungen gar nicht möglich gewesen. Derartige Änderungen hätte diese Regierung und wahrscheinlich alle gewesenen und kommenden Administrationen nie durchbringen können. Da hättest Du mich vorher fragen sollen und Du hättest als Bär einen süßen Winterschlaf verbracht.

;o)  

ich habe die US-Mentalität (jeder ist sich selbst der nächste) in mein Kalkül einbezogen und hatte daher einen ruhigen Schlaf. In Deutschland würden sich die Poliker längst mit Wahlgeschenken gegenseitig überschlagen haben - Hauptsache man wird von den Subprimern wiedergewählt denn: Die Zeche müssen ja nur unsere Kinder blechen.  

mehr um 22 Uhr von mir, denn noch ist die Sitzung nicht zuende.  

den heutigen Tag werte ich als deutliche Schwäche. Nach dem heftigen Ausverkauf hätte ich mir schon eine kleine Erholung erwartet.  

Genau das ist der Knaller am heutigen Tag! Ich werde heute abend nochmal drauf eingehen.  

- Scoach (Frankfurt) US-Ökonomen sehen USA bereits in Rezession -

18:30 07.01.08

Nach Meinung des Chefvolkswirts der Investmentbank Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, befindet sich die US-Wirtschaft bereits im Stadium der Rezession. Der sehr schwache Arbeitsmarktbericht vom vergangenen Freitag hätte gezeigt, dass die Rezession sich bereits auswirke. Die Schlüsselfrage sei nun, wie stark und wie lange diese Phase eines schrumpfenden US-Wirtschaftswachstums sein wird. Am Wochenende hat der Volkswirt der Universität Harvard, Martin Feldstein, die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den USA mit mehr als 50 Prozent beziffert.   Merrill bullisch für Gold   Das Investmenthaus rechnet für das Jahr 2008 mit einem Anstieg des durchschnittlichen Goldpreises gegenüber Vorjahr von 7,6 Prozent auf 750 Dollar je Feinunze. Für das Gesamtjahr 2008 erwartet Analyst Michael Jalonen eine Preis-Range zwischen 700 und 900 Dollar.    Gold wird laut Jalonen weiter als Weltreserve-und Krisenwährung dienen, Preiskatalysator sind eine schwächelnde US-Konkunktur und ein weiter abfallender Dollar.   Auch für das weiße Metall erwartet er steigende Kurse, er sieht bei Silber gegenüber Vorjahr einen durchschnittlichen Preisanstieg  von 5,0 bis 7,0 Prozent auf 14 Dollar.

 

 

Aber die Zeit rennt den Bullen langsam davon.  

die sollten es ja am besten wissen, was uns noch aus ihren Büchern droht  

Montag, 7. Januar 2008Bärenmutter frisst ihre Jungen
Nürnberger Eisbärbabys tot

Die Babys des Eisbärenweibchens Vilma im Nürnberger Tiergarten sind tot. Die vermutlich zwei Jungtiere seien nicht mehr auffindbar, teilte der Tiergarten mit. Möglicherweise wurden sie von der Mutter gefressen. Ursache für den Tod der Babys sei wahrscheinlich eine Erkrankung, erklärte Zoodirektor Dag Encke. Raubtiere seien bekannt dafür, dass sie ihren Nachwuchs auffressen, wenn die Jungtiere nicht in Ordnung seien oder die Umstände eine erfolgreiche Aufzucht unwahrscheinlich machten.

n-tv.de

 

Komisch, Paulson Rede war erst heute. Da muss wohl was schief gelaufen sein:
Verrückte Worte, die er spricht: Angeblich ist das Flooden mit Geld erfolgreich gewesen. Nun gehts langsamer weiter, kein "Jump-Start". Soll ich mal lachen?
Selbst wenn sie wollten, könnten sie keinen "Jump-Srtat" -was immer das sein soll- hinlegen...

Central banks' efforts to flood the financial system with short-term loans "are having their desired effects," the former Goldman Sachs chairman said. "The spread between Libor and fed funds futures has shrunk significantly" and "there has been progress in the asset-backed commercial paper market."
The White House won't rush to propose new ideas to supervise financial markets or to stimulate the economy, Paulson said.
"Working through the current situation and getting the policy right is more important than getting the policy announced quickly," he said, in excerpts of a speech planned for later Monday.
President Bush hinted in an interview last week that his administration is contemplating a fiscal stimulus program, which would likely be announced at the State of the Union speech later in January. Fiscal policy generally refers to federal taxing and spending.
"Let me be clear that no single policy or action will undo the excesses of the last few years," Paulson said.

Paulson: No Rush on Plan to Jump-Start the Economy

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Monday the Bush administration was considering
how to give the economy a boost as it weathers a housing correction, but does not want to rush.

"Our most immediate goal is to minimize the impact on the real economy," Paulson said in excerpts from a speech he is to deliver in New York this afternoon. "This will require
patience as we thoughtfully evaluate next steps.

"Working through the current situation and getting the policy right is more important than getting the policy announced quickly," Paulson added.

Expectations have been growing that the Bush administration might be preparing a package of stimulus measures to unveil as early as the annual State of the Union message, which President Bush is scheduled to deliver to Congress on Jan. 28.

The Treasury Department released the excerpts from Paulson's speech ahead of his address to an event sponsored by the New York Society of Security Analysis. Bush is due to speak
on the economy at about the same time.

Paulson said a correction in the U.S. housing market -- characterized by slumping home prices and weak sales -- was "inevitable and necessary" after years in which banks and other
mortgage grantors followed "lax" lending practices and prices had risen too quickly.

"Let me be clear that no single policy or action will undo the excesses of the last few years," Paulson said. He added that administration officials "recognize the risks we face" and will try to keep the economy "as strong as possible as we weather this housing correction."

A welter of recent data has shown the U.S. economy lost much of its steam as 2007 ended, including a government report Friday that showed a meager 18,000 jobs were created in
December while the unemployment rate climbed to a two-year high of 5 percent.

That has fanned fears that the economy may he headed toward recession -- a theme that contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination have picked up on and used to hammer
the Bush administration's handling of the economy.

New York Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton raised the issue during a debate in New Hampshire on Saturday night, saying the U.S. middle class was under increasing pressure as costs rise
and housing prices wane.

Paulson said financial institutions were writing down the value of the assets they hold but insisted that no one should be "surprised or disappointed" to see that happening because
the long-term effect will be to strengthen their balance sheets.

"This is market discipline in action and should enhance market confidence over time," the former Goldman Sachs chief executive said.

Paulson said if institutions do get their balance sheets in order and maintain their ability to finance businesses and individuals, it will minimize the damage from market turmoil on
the economy.
He took a swipe at the Democrat-controlled Congress, saying it should speed up reform of government-sponsored enterprises that engage in mortgage lending by temporarily raising loan
limits to permit GSEs to package so-called "jumbo" mortgages into securities that can then be resold to investors.