Der USA Bären-Thread
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| Eröffnet am: | 20.02.07 18:46 | von: Anti Lemmin. | Anzahl Beiträge: | 157.409 |
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Ich kann das gar nicht nachvollziehen, bei soviel neuen Arbeitsplätzen und obwohl es der Wirtschaft so gut geht, wie seit langem nicht.
Da bin ich doch mal unserem Top-Management einfach mal richtig dankbar, dass diese soviel Gutes für uns Deutsche tun, und dann sollen Sie doch auch mal nen grossen Schluck aus der Pulle nehmen; Der Wendelin kann jetzt mit seinen Boni ein ganzes Arsenal Porsche kaufen, oder noch viel mehr VWs oder Opels.
Dumm nur, das er das wahrscheinlich nicht tun wird; Ja was ist denn dann mit den Millionen?
Die liegen dann auf der Bank, wie inzwischen weitere 800 Mrd US-dollar in 2007 von den neuen Forbes Milliardären und warten darauf, gewinnbringend angelegt zu werden.
Ja nur das mit dem Anlegen wird immer schwerer, da die Firmen nicht mehr so wachsen wie in der Vergangenheit, weil die untere bzw. Mittel-Schicht einfach nicht so konsumfreudig wie gewünscht sind.
Aber ich hätte da einen Tipp: vielleicht sollte die Reichen ihr Vermögen ausschliesslich in Aktien / Optionen von Luxus-Artikel-Hersteller der top-Preis-Kategorien anlegen wie z.B. in den Ausstatter/Beautifier von Privat-Jets; hier können die Reichen sicherstellen, dass das Geschäft wächst, weil die Reichen ja immer reicher werden und auch ein bisschen mehr werden und ihren Reichtum auch zeigen müssen, so dass ja immer auch die eigene Yacht/Jet ein bisschen grösser sein muss, als die des anderen.
Damit entsteht dann das perfekte perpetuum mobile das sich aus den immer reicheren Reichen speist und dabei schneller und schneller das Geld von Otto-Normalverbraucher oder dem chinesichen Fabrikarbeiter abzieht und nach oben pumpt und damit dem normalen Wirschaftkreislauf entzieht. Aber ganz egal, Hauptsache Kosten reduziert und Arbeitsplätze verlagert, und damit die eigene Tantieme gesichert, weil ohne die Aufrechterhaltung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit verschwindet man von der Bühne der sozialen Marktwirtschaft und damit gehen die so wichtigen Arbeitsplätze verloren (und natürlich auch die vereinbarten Boni)
Die Quelle ist Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, offensichtlich wirklich ein Autoexperte (siehe seine Homepage). Die Nachricht hat mE einen hohen Glaubwürdigkeitsfaktor, denn wenn sie eine Ente wäre würde Herr Dudenhöffer demnächst komplett diskreditiert und damit arbeitslos sein. Er wird also wissen was er verbreitet.
Zudem bin ich sicher, dass die Journallie in diesen Tagen die Telefondrähte glühen läßt um die Nachricht bestätigt zu bekommen.
Sollte sie stimmen kann man über die Gründe spekulieren. ME weiß jeder, dass von Konsumentenaufschwung in Deutschland nicht die Rede sein kann. Im Gegenteil, die Leute sind alles andere als in Kauflaune.
Von den niedrigen Arbeitslosenzahlen in Deutschland (und USA) sollte man sich nicht blenden lassen: Die meisten neuen Jobs sind niedrig dotiert. Zu wenig um richtig zu konsumieren und zuviel um ALG II zu bekommen. Das ist ja das Problem mit der Statistik: Jeder 1-EUR-Jobber ist offiziell nicht mehr arbeitslos und damit raus.
Zudem fehlt es den relativ gut bezahlten Menschen an Einkommenssteigerungen. Jahrelange Steuer- und Sozialabgabenerhöhungen sowie fehlende Inflationsausgleiche bei den Löhnen tragen ebenfalls nicht zum Konsumentenaufschwung bei.
Skandalös wäre natürlich, wenn die Autobauer nun auf Halde produziert haben und dies mit Eigenzulassungen vertuscht haben. Die Kurssteigerungen wurden ja gerade damit begründet, dass der Absatz wider Erwarten weiterhin gut läuft.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk
Twenty billion dollars here, $20bn there, and a lush half-trillion from the European Central Bank at give-away rates for Christmas. Buckets of liquidity are being splashed over the North Atlantic banking system, so far with meagre or fleeting effects.As the credit paralysis stretches through its fifth month, a chorus of economists has begun to warn that the world's central banks are fighting the wrong war, and perhaps risk a policy error of epochal proportions.
"Liquidity doesn't do anything in this situation," says Anna Schwartz, the doyenne of US monetarism and life-time student (with Milton Friedman) of the Great Depression.
"It cannot deal with the underlying fear that lots of firms are going bankrupt. The banks and the hedge funds have not fully acknowledged who is in trouble. That is the critical issue," she adds.
Lenders are hoarding the cash, shunning peers as if all were sub-prime lepers. Spreads on three-month Euribor and Libor - the interbank rates used to price contracts and Club Med mortgages - are stuck at 80 basis points even after the latest blitz. The monetary screw has tightened by default.
York professor Peter Spencer, chief economist for the ITEM Club, says the global authorities have just weeks to get this right, or trigger disaster."The central banks are rapidly losing control. By not cutting interest rates nearly far enough or fast enough, they are allowing the money markets to dictate policy. We are long past worrying about moral hazard," he says.
"They still have another couple of months before this starts imploding. Things are very unstable and can move incredibly fast. I don't think the central banks are going to make a major policy error, but if they do, this could make 1929 look like a walk in the park," he adds.
The Bank of England knows the risk. Markets director Paul Tucker says the crisis has moved beyond the collapse of mortgage securities, and is now eating into the bedrock of banking capital. "We must try to avoid the vicious circle in which tighter liquidity conditions, lower asset values, impaired capital resources, reduced credit supply, and slower aggregate demand feed back on each other," he says.
New York's Federal Reserve chief Tim Geithner echoed the words, warning of an "adverse self-reinforcing dynamic", banker-speak for a downward spiral. The Fed has broken decades of practice by inviting all US depositary banks to its lending window, bringing dodgy mortgage securities as collateral.
Quietly, insiders are perusing an obscure paper by Fed staffers David Small and Jim Clouse. It explores what can be done under the Federal Reserve Act when all else fails.
Section 13 (3) allows the Fed to take emergency action when banks become "unwilling or very reluctant to provide credit". A vote by five governors can - in "exigent circumstances" - authorise the bank to lend money to anybody, and take upon itself the credit risk. This clause has not been evoked since the Slump.
Yet still the central banks shrink from seriously grasping the rate-cut nettle. Understandably so. They are caught between the Scylla of the debt crunch and the Charybdis of inflation. It is not yet certain which is the more powerful force.
America's headline CPI screamed to 4.3 per cent in November. This may be a rogue figure, the tail effects of an oil, commodity, and food price spike. If so, the Fed missed its chance months ago to prepare the markets for such a case. It is now stymied.
This has eerie echoes of Japan in late-1990, when inflation rose to 4 per cent on a mini price-surge across Asia. As the Bank of Japan fretted about an inflation scare, the country's financial system tipped into the abyss.In theory, Japan had ample ammo to fight a bust. Interest rates were 6 per cent in February 1990. In reality, the country was engulfed by the tsunami of debt deflation quicker than the bank dared to cut rates. In the end, rates fell to zero. Still it was not enough.
When a credit system implodes, it can feed on itself with lightning speed. Current rates in America (4.25 per cent), Britain (5.5 per cent), and the eurozone (4 per cent) have scope to fall a long way, but this may prove less of a panacea than often assumed. The risk is a Japanese denouement across the Anglo-Saxon world and half Europe.
Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG, said the Fed and allies had scripted a Greek tragedy by under-pricing credit long ago and seem paralysed as post-bubble chickens now come home to roost. "The central banks are trying to dissociate financial problems from the real economy. They are pushing the world nearer and nearer to the edge of depression. We hope they will eventually be dragged kicking and screaming to do enough, but time is running out," he said.Glance at the more or less healthy stock markets in New York, London, and Frankfurt, and you might never know that this debate is raging. Hopes that Middle Eastern and Asian wealth funds will plug every hole lifts spirits.Glance at the debt markets and you hear a different tale. Not a single junk bond has been issued in Europe since August. Every attempt failed.
Europe's corporate bond issuance fell 66pc in the third quarter to $396bn (BIS data). Emerging market bonds plummeted 75pc.
"The kind of upheaval observed in the international money markets over the past few months has never been witnessed in history," says Thomas Jordan, a Swiss central bank governor."The sub-prime mortgage crisis hit a vital nerve of the international financial system," he says.
The market for asset-backed commercial paper - where Europe's lenders from IKB to the German Doctors and Dentists borrowed through Irish-based "conduits" to play US housing debt - has shrunk for 18 weeks in a row. It has shed $404bn or 36pc. As lenders refuse to roll over credit, banks must take these wrecks back on their books. There lies the rub.
Professor Spencer says capital ratios have fallen far below the 8 per cent minimum under Basel rules. "If they can't raise capital, they will have to shrink balance sheets," he said.Tim Congdon, a banking historian at the London School of Economics, said the rot had seeped through the foundations of British lending.
Average equity capital has fallen to 3.2 per cent (nearer 2.5 per cent sans "goodwill"), compared with 5 per cent seven years ago. "How on earth did the Financial Services Authority let this happen?" he asks.
Worse, changes pushed through by Gordon Brown in 1998 have caused the de facto cash and liquid assets ratio to collapse from post-war levels above 30 per cent to near zero. "Brown hadn't got a clue what he was doing," he says.
The risk for Britain - as property buckles - is a twin banking and fiscal squeeze. The UK budget deficit is already 3 per cent of GDP at the peak of the economic cycle, shockingly out of line with its peers. America looks frugal by comparison.In Europe, the ECB has its own distinct headache. Inflation is 3.1 per cent, the highest since monetary union. This is already enough to set off a political storm in Germany. A Dresdner poll found that 71 per cent of German women want the Deutschmark restored.
With Brünhilde fuming about Brot prices, the ECB has to watch its step. Frankfurt cannot easily cut rates to cushion the blow as housing bubbles pop across southern Europe. It must resort to tricks instead. Hence the half trillion gush last week at rates of 70bp below Euribor, a camouflaged move to help Spain.
The ECB's little secret is that it must never allow a Northern Rock failure in the eurozone because this would expose the reality that there is no EU treasury and no EU lender of last resort behind the system. Would German taxpayers foot the bill for a Spanish bail-out in the way that Kentish men and maids must foot the bill for Newcastle's Rock? Nobody knows. This is where eurozone solidarity stretches to snapping point. It is why the ECB has showered the system with liquidity from day one of this crisis.Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, UBS, HSBC and others have stepped forward to reveal their losses. At some point, enough of the dirty linen will be on the line to let markets discern the shape of the debacle. We are not there yet.
Goldman Sachs caused shock last month when it predicted that total crunch losses would reach $500bn, leading to a $2 trillion contraction in lending as bank multiples kick into reverse. This already seems humdrum.
"Our counterparties are telling us that losses may reach $700bn," says Rob McAdie, head of credit at Barclays Capital. Where will it end? The big banks face a further $200bn of defaults in commercial property. On it goes.
The International Monetary Fund still predicts blistering global growth of 5 per cent next year. If so, markets should roar back to life in January, as though the crunch were but a nightmare. There again, the credit soufflé may be hard to raise a second time.
An Associated Press analysis of financial data from the country's largest card issuers also found that the greatest rise was among accounts more than 90 days in arrears.
Experts say these signs of the deterioration of finances of many households are partly a byproduct of the subprime mortgage crisis and could spell more trouble ahead for an already sputtering economy.
"Debt eventually leaks into other areas, whether it starts with the mortgage and goes to the credit card or vice versa," said Cliff Tan, a visiting scholar at Stanford University and an expert on credit risk. "We're starting to see leaks now."
The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP. That represented more than 4 percent of the total outstanding principal balances owed to the trusts on credit cards that were issued by banks such as Bank of America and Capital One and for retailers like Home Depot and Wal-Mart.
At the same time, defaults - when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt - rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Serious delinquencies also are up sharply: Some of the nation's biggest lenders - including Advanta, GE Money Bank and HSBC - reported increases of 50 percent or more in the value of accounts that were at least 90 days delinquent when compared with the same period a year ago.
The AP analyzed data representing about 325 million individual accounts held in trusts that were created by credit card issuers in order to sell the debt to investors - similar to how many banks packaged and sold subprime mortgage loans. Together, they represent about 45 percent of the $920 billion the Federal Reserve counts as credit card debt owed by Americans.
Until recently, credit card default rates had been running close to record lows, providing one of the few profit growth areas for the nation's banks, which continue to flood Americans' mailboxes with billions of letters monthly offering easy sign-ups for new plastic.
Even after the recent spike in bad loans, the credit card business is still quite lucrative, thanks to interest rates that can run as high as 36 percent, plus late fees and other penalties.But what is coming into sharper focus from the detailed monthly SEC filings from the trusts is a snapshot of the worrisome state of Americans' ability to juggle growing and expensive credit card debt.
The trend carried into November. As of Friday, all of the trusts that filed reports for the month show increases in both delinquencies and defaults over November 2006, and many show sequential increases from October.
Discover accounts 30 days or more delinquent jumped 25,716 from November 2006 and had increased 6,000 between October and November this year.
Many economists expect delinquencies and defaults to rise further after the holiday shopping season.
Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com Inc., cited mounting mortgage problems that began after this summer's subprime financial shock as one of the culprits, as well as a weakening job market in the Midwest, South and parts of the West, where real-estate markets have been particularly hard hit.
"Credit card quality will continue to erode throughout next year," Zandi said.
Economists also cite America's long-standing attitude that debt - even high-interest credit card debt - is not a big deal.
"The desires of consumers to want, want, want, spend, spend, spend - it's the fabric of our nation," said Howard Dvorkin, founder of Consolidated Credit Counseling Services in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., which has advised more than 5 million people in debt. "But you always have to pay the piper, and that can be a very painful process."
Filing for bankruptcy is no longer a solution for many Americans because of a 2005 change to federal law that made it harder to walk away from debt. Those with above-average incomes are barred from declaring Chapter 7 - where debts can be wiped out entirely - except under special circumstances and must instead file a repayment plan under the more restrictive Chapter 13.
Personal finance coaches say the problem is most grave for individuals who are months delinquent or already in default - like Kenneth McGuinness, a postal clerk from Flushing, N.Y.
His credit card struggles began nine years ago, when he charged his son's college tuition and books. He thought he was being clever: His credit card's 6 percent "teaser" interest rate was lower than the 8.6 percent interest on a college loan.
McGuinness, 61, soon began using Citibank and Chase cards for food, dental work and copays on doctor visits and minor surgeries. Interest rates surged to 30 percent. Now he's $37,000 in debt and plans to file for bankruptcy in February.
"I tried to pay what I could and go after the high-interest accounts first," McGuinness said. "But it just kept getting higher and higher, and with late charges and surcharges I was going backward."
In the wake of the jump in defaults on subprime mortgage loans made to borrowers with poor credit histories, banks have been less willing to allow consumers to consolidate credit card debt into home equity loans or refinanced mortgages. That is leaving some with no option but to miss payments, economists said.
Investors also are backing away from buying securitized credit-card debt, said Moshe Orenbuch, managing director at Credit Suisse. But that probably has more to do with concerns about the overall health of the U.S. economy, he said.
"It's been getting tougher to finance any kind of structured finance - mortgages, automobile loans, credit cards, student loans," said Orenbuch, who specializes in the credit industry.
Capital One Financial Corp. reported that delinquencies and defaults are highest in regions where troubled mortgages are concentrated, including California and Florida.
Among the trusts examined, Bank of America Corp. had the highest delinquency volume, with overdue accounts valued at $5 billion. Bank of America defaults in October were almost 200 percent higher than in October 2006.
A spokesman for Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America declined to comment.
Other trusts - including those linked to Capital One, American Express Co., Discover Financial Services Co. and those containing "branded" cards from Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Home Depot Inc., Lowe's Companies Inc., Target Corp. and Circuit City Stores Inc. - also reported striking increases in year-over-year delinquency and default rates for October. Most banks and other financial institutions holding credit card debt on their own books also reported double-digit increases in delinquencies.
The one exception in October was JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s credit card trust, which reported declines in both delinquencies and defaults. A Chase spokesperson attributed this to its focus on prime borrowers and aggressive account management.
By contrast, Capital One executives told analysts last month that the company projected 2008 write-offs of credit card debt to be at least $4.9 billion. This projection, analysts were told, took into account growing delinquencies and potential effects if the housing market continued its downward slide.
Capital One spokeswoman Julie Rakes said the increase in delinquencies could be due to an accounting change last summer, which shortened the grace period between when statements were issued and the due date.
Capital One also reported that the number of accounts 90 days or more in arrears had increased between October and November. More than 1.2 million of Capital One's 30 million accounts were either delinquent or in default.
Many personal financial coaches expect this trend to accelerate in 2008 - particularly among people who took out untraditional loans whose interest rate has risen, requiring owners to pay mortgages several hundred dollars more than just a year ago.
"You're looking at more and more distress - consumers desperately trying to preserve their credit lines, but there's nowhere else to go," said Robert Manning, director of the Center for Consumer Financial Services at Rochester Institute of Technology. "It's like a game of dominoes."
..................................
Here is the key sentence in the above article: "It's been getting tougher to finance any kind of structured finance - mortgages, automobile loans, credit cards, student loans," said Orenbuch, who specializes in the credit industry.
The attitude towards risk is changing. It started with rising lending standards on home loans but has now spread into autos, credit card, and student loans. Decreasing willingness of lenders to lend and consumers and businesses to borrow is part of the psychology of deflation.http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Im Übrigen verdienen die meisten deutschen Hersteller ihr Geld vor allem in den USA und in Asien, der Deutsche Markt ist zwar nicht unwichtig aber trotzdem nicht so hoch einzustufen
Optionen
| Boardmail an "TurboLuke" |
Wertpapier: S&P 500 |
Feiert oder sauft,Hauptsache relaxed. ;-)
Optionen
| Boardmail an "relaxed" |
Wertpapier: S&P 500 |
Dem gegenüber stehen
General Motors: 307.000
Toyota: 198.000
Ford: 195.000
Chrysler: 145.000
(Quelle: autobild.de)
Schönes Weihnachtsfest.
Ordentliche Renditen
Sparer können die Welt verbessern
Lange vor Weihnachten, im September, hat sich das Zentralkomitee der deutschen Katholiken (ZdK) an alle Christen gewandt. Es rief Kleinanleger wie Großanleger auf, ihre Ersparnisse und Vermögen ethisch zu investieren. Wer Geld anlege, habe eine Verantwortung und sollte sie wahrnehmen, lautet der Tenor. Die Kernfrage dabei sei: Fördert die Geldanlage die Gerechtigkeit in der Welt, den Frieden und die Bewahrung der Schöpfung?
Auswahl und Volumen wachsen
Als Orientierungshilfe nennt das ZdK Negativ- und Positiv-Kriterien: Tabu sind Rüstung, Zwangsarbeit, Kinderarbeit, Missachtung von Menschenrechten oder Umweltzerstörung. Zu empfehlen sind Firmen, die sich aktiv für die Armutsbekämpfung zum Beispiel durch Mikrokredite einsetzen, die Umwelttechnologien herstellen sowie ethisch und gesellschaftlich verantwortlich geführt sind.
http://www.fr-online.de/in_und_ausland/wirtschaft/...2&em_cnt=1262778
Katholiken hinken den Sündern hinterher
2007 war wieder ein sündiges Jahr. Wie schon in den drei Jahren zuvor liegt der katholische Fonds Ave Maria Catholic Values von Schwartz Investment Counsel auch 2007 in der Performance weit hinter dem sündigen Gegenspieler Vice Fund von Mutuals.com zurück. Seit Jahresbeginn erzielten die Katholiken einen Wertverlust von rund 2,3 Prozent. Dagegen legte der Vice Fund in dem gleichen Zeitraum um rund 20 Prozent zu. Die Fondsmanager des Ave Maria, George Schwartz und Gregory Heilman von Schwartz Investment, investieren unter anderem in Finanztitel, ins Gesundheitswesen und Industriegüter. Wichtig dabei ist, dass die Unternehmen moralisch einwandfrei agieren und mit dem katholischen Glauben in Einklang gebracht werden können. Im Portfolio befinden sich Titel wie Gentex Corporation und Legg Mason. Dagegen investieren die Fondsmanager Charles Norton und Allen Gillespie von Mutuals.com für den Vice Fund in Titel, die moralisch bedenklich sind. Schwerpunkt der Investitionen sind Tabakunternehmen wie British American Tobacco, Alkoholproduzenten wie Diageo sowie Unternehmen aus dem Bereich Glücksspiel und Pornografie.Während der katholische Fonds mit aktuell 279 Millionen US-Dollar ein bedeutend größeres Volumen aufweist. Nähert sich der Gegenspieler dieser Summe immer mehr an. Derzeit beträgt das Fondsvolumen rund 177 Millionen US-Dollar. Anfang 2004 hatte der Vice Fund ein Volumen von nur 9 Millionen US-Dollar, der Ave Maria jedoch schon 152 Millionen US-Dollar eingesammelt.
http://www.arbeitsgemeinschaft-finanzen.de/fonds/news/artikel_701.html
Außerdem sind Alkohol-, Tabak-, und Glücksspielaktien zumindest für die Betreiber dieser Firmen bzw. die Hersteller wahre Glücksbringer.
Homo homine lupo.
Raytheon - ein ethisch äußerst bedenklicher "Überflieger":
"...geschossen wird immer, gesoffen auch..."
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(Ist mir in 12265 doch glatt der Ablativ reingeruscht statt "dem Dativ" ;o)
Weiterhin frohes Fest!
Zu weiteren festtäglichen Erheiterung empfehle ich Rohstoff-Investments in Hopfen:
http://www.ariva.de/...keit_in_Hopfen_t301828?pnr=3846524#jump3846524
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- China ist bis zur Olympiade im Sommer 2008 unfallbar
- Die Hausse läuft bis 2010, danach gibt es 3-5 Jahre Baisse
- Dow 20000 bis Ende 2009 (lt. H.S. Dent, der ursprünglich sogar mal Dow 40000 bis 2010 propagierte)
Diese Fahrpläne gehen schon deshalb nicht auf, weil die Bestandteil des kollektiven Unbewußten der Börsianer geworden sind, sich also die große Mehrheit mehr oder weniger bewußt dran hält. Und wie das an der Börse so ist: Die Mehrheit fällt stets auf die Schnauze, aus bekannten Gründen.
Früher glaube ich auch mal an die Hausse bei 2010, aber eben weil das jetzt Mehrheitsmeinung ist glaube ich nicht mehr dran. "Die" Hausse wird entweder deutlich früher oder deutlich später kippen. Meine Vermutung: Deutlich früher, nämlich 2008. Erst wenn dann alles Asche ist wird die nächste starten; mit einer Delle wie 1998 kommen wir diesmal nicht davon. Der 10-Jahreszyklus wird also dieses Mal nicht funktionieren, eben weil alle dran glauben. Nur meine bescheidene Meinung.
Zwar muß für das Funktionieren eines Fahrplans eine gewisse Zahl von Anlegern dran glauben, aber eben nicht zuviele. Bei den genannten Plänen habe ich den Eindruck, dass fast alle dran glauben, sogar die Bären. "Diesmal ist es anders" ist zwar der teuerste Spruch an der Börse, aber "Diesmal ist es exakt genauso" ebenfalls.
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. stores fell for the fourth straight week as rising fuel and food prices threatened to hand retailers their worst holiday shopping season in five years.
Spending fell 2.2 percent for the week through Dec. 22 from a year earlier, Chicago-based ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said in a statement today. Discounter Target Corp. said separately that sales at stores open at least a year may decline in December after customer visits slowed following the Thanksgiving holiday.
A 7.6 percent increase on the Saturday before Christmas wasn't enough to lift retailers' revenue last week as shoppers grapple with $3-a-gallon gasoline and a deepening housing slump. This year's holiday shopping season may grow at the slowest pace since 2002 as stores struggle to recapture the gains they saw on the Friday after Thanksgiving.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=akA3fuMs_s3g&refer=home
December 26, 2007; Page C1
The credit crunch triggered by the downturn in the housing market is creating problems in commercial real estate, driving down prices of office buildings, shopping malls and apartment complexes, and leaving some owners scrambling for cash….
…For the past few months, the sector has been in a state of near-paralysis ... The number of major properties sold is down by half, and many worry that the market will continue to deteriorate as property sales remain slow, prices continue to drop and deals keep falling apart…
…The CMBS market was the engine that drove the commercial real-estate boom. Over the past few years, the issuance of CMBS allowed banks to get rid of the risk on their books, lend with cheaper rates and looser terms and that made it easy for private-equity firms to do huge real-estate deals....
…Real-estate investors aren't the only ones feeling the pain. Many big banks issued short-term loans to buyers and planned to sell them off later, much the way they do with loans made to private-equity buyout shops. But the banks have gotten stuck with an estimated $65 billion in fixed- and floating-rate loans on their books, according to J.P. Morgan. Some of the largest issuers have been Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Credit Suisse Group and Wachovia Corp.
Lehman has said that about half of the $79 billion in mortgage debt it was holding at year-end is CMBS-related. Wachovia and Credit Suisse declined to comment....
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119862576458749597.html
By Ruth Mantell
Last update: 9:10 a.m. EST Dec. 26, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities were down 6.1% on average in the past year as of October, according to the Case-Shiller price index released Wednesday by Standard & Poor's. Since October 2006, prices in 10 cities fell 6.7% -- a record drop. The prior largest decline was 6.3%, reached in April 1991. "No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim," said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and co-developer of the index.