Der USA Bären-Thread

denn die Finanzkrise interessiert keinen mehr. Also kann man nicht von neg. Nachrichten und pos. Effekten sprechen. Wichtig sind die Konjunkturdaten. Dort wurde alles auf eine Zinssenkung hin gemünzt. Kommt sie, ist die Fantasie raus. Zusätzlich ist im Laufe der Wochen mit extrem schlechten Inflationsdaten zu rechnen, siehe ALs Posting. Das dürfte jede weitere Fantasie über Weihnachten killen.

Aber du hast recht, lehrbuchmäßig wäre ein Short erst, wenn POSITIVE Nachrichten nicht mehr zu weiteren Anstiegen führten. Bloß gibt es die im Moment nicht ;-)  

Losing Control Of Monetary Policy

In the US Merrill forecasts gloom for US economy.

US interest rates will plunge from 4.5pc to 2pc as the American economy suffers its first consumer recession since 1991, Merrill Lynch has forecast. The investment bank warned in its annual economic outlook that America is under attack by the "Four Horsemen" of soaring energy prices, unemployment, a housing slump and an ongoing credit squeeze, but it remained optimistic about prospects for the rest of the world in 2008. The one significant exception to this global "rebalancing" is Britain where a "notable slowdown" is predicted.

Merrill Lynch's North America economist David Rosenberg presented an almost unremittingly gloomy forecast for the US economy next year. "The US consumer is on the precipice of experiencing its first recessionary phase since 1991 - the last time we had the combination of high, punishing energy prices; weakening employment conditions; real estate deflation and tightening credit conditions" he said.

"We reiterate that real estate deflations are unique and have never ended well for the consumer, the credit market or the economy. We can identify only five periods post WWII when the real value of housing assets turned negative on a year-on-year basis. All of these time periods inevitably included a consumer downturn. Maybe it will be different this time, but we fail to see why," Mr Rosenberg concluded.
Rosenberg is certainly on the right side of the fence on most issues and has been for some time. But I have to question the idea that the EU decouples. Property bubbles bursting in Spain and France and tight money policies by the ECB are going to add to the complications.

Be Prepared For A Wave of US Bank Failures

Furthermore, if there is a rush of bank failures in the US as I expect, see Wave of Bank Failures is Coming, I doubt that many global economies are spared a substantial slowdown.

In the UK the Market fears the BOE has 'lost control'.

There were fears in the City last night that the Bank of England has lost control of monetary policy after expectations for money market borrowing costs rose - despite the Monetary Policy Committee cutting interest rates. Short sterling futures, which indicate where the market expects the key benchmark interbank borrowing rate to be in two weeks' time, actually rose markedly after the Bank's decision - an almost unprecedented reaction.

John Wraith of Royal Bank of Scotland said: "Historically, a 25-basis point change in Bank rate would lead to an almost identical change in Libor. That hasn't happened."He said this made it highly likely that the Bank would eventually be forced to cut rates even further than anticipated.

Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the Ernst & Young Item Club, said: "The fact of the matter is that the market rather than the Bank is now dictating monetary policy - and not from the point of view of controlling inflation, but from the point of view of a random walk. It is behaving in a way which is totally rational for individual banks but adds up to a major deflationary issue.
Corporate Bond Contraction in the EU

The Bank for International Settlements reveals that a full scale shutdown of corporate bonds as companies in the UK have cut back on their borrowing at the fastest rate in over three years.

In Germany, Europe's biggest economy and the world's biggest exporter, businesses paid back more than they borrowed for the first time since the 1980s. The value of bonds issued by businesses in the international debt markets halved between the second and third quarters of the year.

In Germany, whose banks have been some of the biggest victims of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US, some $20bn more was paid back than borrowed.
ECB Hawks Focus On Inflation

In the EU, ECB hawks snub pleas for rate cut.

Jean Claude-Trichet, the ECB president, caught analysts off guard and rattled the European bond markets by revealing that the ECB's arch-hawks had pressed for a rise in interest rates to choke off mounting inflation. The 19-member council voted to keep rates steady at 4pc, reportedly after an exchange of hot words.

Julian Callow, eurozone economist at Barclays Capital, accused the ECB of "sabre-rattling". "The idea of a rate rise is so out of line with opinion in the markets that it won't happen. Spreads on three-month Euribor rates - used to price mortgages in parts of the eurozone - jumped by 93 basis points over ECB rates yesterday, the highest since the credit crunch began in August. It is equivalent to almost four rate rises.
My Comment: This is a serious situation. While I understand the concerns, hiking into a credit crunch, is not likely to work well. Rising oil prices are not a cause of inflation. However, one must understand the sentiment at play. The Bernanke Fed like the Greenspan Fed are overrun by fears of the great depression, while the EU harbors distant memories of the Weimar Republic hyperinflation.

"Trichet's remarks can't be taken seriously," said Jörg Krämer, an economist at Commerzbank. The reality is that the ECB has cut its growth forecast for next year from 2.3pc to 2pc and expects inflation to fall back to 1.8pc by 2009.
My Comment: Trichet is trying to adopt a wait and see attitude. But if oil spikes up on a supply shock or a geopolitical shock in the Mid-east, it would be a major policy mistake to hike into that.

Lombard Street Research said Spain in particular is now in serious trouble, with a "staggering" current account deficit of 9pc of GDP and a huge overhang of unsold property from the housing bubble. "Spanish financial imbalances are amongst the most severe in the developed world," it said.Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have slashed their eurozone forecasts, abandoning the idea that Europe will be able to "decouple" from America.
My Comment: In light of the above, Europe is not going to "decouple" from America. Either David Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch has a blind spot or he quickly changes his tune. I expect the latter.

Summary Recap

The US is on the precipice of its first consumer led recession since 1991.
A wave of US Bank failures is coming.
LIBOR rates are rising in the US and UK smack in the face of interest rate reductions.
The ECB continues with hawkish rhetoric.
German businesses paid back more than they borrowed for the first time since the 1980s.
Three-month Euribor rates are 93 basis points over ECB rates.
One-month LIBOR rates are 74 basis points over the Fed Funds Rate.
The Fed and BOE easing actions simply are not working to restore faith in the credit markets. Credit conditions based on LIBOR are worse now than in the August and November stock market swoons. Banks remain reluctant to lend to one another in spite of central bank efforts to provide liquidity. Neither central bank appears to be in control of anything at the moment. Of course it was only an illusion that made it seem like central bankers ever were in control in the first place.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
--------------------------------------------------

Am Jahresausblick 2008 von Merrill war mein Gewährsmann wesentlich beteiligt. Dessen Erwartungen für den "Rest der Welt" sind allerdings - im Gegensatz zu David Rosenberg -nicht optimistisch.  
 

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc., seeking to avert a crippling reduction of its AAA credit rating, will receive as much as $1 billion from private equity firm Warburg Pincus LLC.

Shares of MBIA, the world's biggest bond insurer, soared as much as 27 percent after the company said it will sell $500 million of common stock to Warburg Pincus. The firm will also buy up to $500 million in a rights offering next year, Armonk, New York-based MBIA said today. MBIA said it faces ``significantly'' higher losses from a slump in the value of securities it guarantees.

The added capital may help ward off a cut in MBIA's top credit rating, which is under scrutiny by Moody's Investors Service, Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's. MBIA's AAA ranking stands behind $652 billion of state, municipal and structured finance bonds and losing the AAA credit rating would endanger those ratings, as well as cut off MBIA's ability to guarantee debt, its main source of revenue. .....MBIA, down 59 percent this year, soared $4.91 to $34.91 at 12:29 p.m. The shares jumped as high as $38.19.Warburg Pincus, the New York-based firm started in 1971, will initially buy 16.1 million common shares at $31 each. The firm will also receive seven-year warrants to buy stock at $40 and have the right to appoint two directors.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...d=20601103&sid=aS7NQPHE_U5k&refer=us  

....Stocks will rise in the U.S. next year even as economic and profit growth slow, equity strategists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bank of America said.Ian Scott, London-based managing director for global equity strategy at Lehman, predicted the benchmark for American equities will rise 8.3 percent in 2008, helped by interest-rate cuts. Thomas McManus, New York-based chief investment strategist at Bank of America's securities unit, said the S&P 500 will end 2008 at 1,625. McManus advised investors to wait for the index to slip to about 1,425 before buying stocks.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...d=20601103&sid=aPOwsUyf4XYc&refer=us
nachdem sich die positiven Meinungen derart häufen und die Banken nur noch eine Frage des Wiedereinstiegs wann sind und die Finanzspritzen nur noch positiv aufgenommen werden.......  

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...efer=columnist_weil&sid=aFwZKa2jzPfQ
.On Nov. 5, Fitch said it would spend four to six weeks analyzing whether the bond-insurance unit of MBIA Inc. and six other so-called monoline insurers are worthy of the AAA imprimatur. Four to six WEEKS? Can anyone tell me a good reason why it should take four to six WEEKS to figure this out?.... The last time Moody's published a full report on the company, on Oct. 5, it said MBIA Insurance's Aaa rating and the Aa2 rating for its parent reflected, among other things, their ``consistent profitability.'' That was a few weeks before MBIA Inc. reported a $36.6 million net loss for the third quarter, which included a $63.7 million pretax loss from its insurance operations.

And here I thought AAA-rated companies weren't supposed to lose money.

So here we go again. The public battering the rating companies have taken this year over their AAA ratings and slow- footed downgrades on all manner of subprime-mortgage garbage wasn't enough. They're going to wait, and wait, and then wait some more. Maybe by then MBIA and its AAA-rated brethren will have scrounged up badly needed capital. This isn't the way it's supposed to work, though. The credit-rating companies are supposed to keep their ratings current. ......  

stehen z.Z. zwei der "härtesten Hunde" unter den US-Generalstaatsanwälten auf den Füßen:
Marc Dann, Ohio, und Andrew Cuomo, New York, beide Demokraten. Jene dürften nun mit Sicherheit sehr ernsthaft ihre weitere Ratingpraxis überdenken. Deren letzte Downratings lassen sich zumindest schon recht ordentlich an. Die bislang gemeldeten Kapitalspritzen für etliche Problemkandidaten von Ambac über Citigroup bis MBIA dürften bei weitem noch nicht für eine Aufrechterhaltung der Triple A-Ratings ausreichen.  

Die Citibank wirbt z.Z. sehr aggressiv für online Kredite "ab 3,71 % eff. Jahreszins, gültig bis 16.01.08". Das Studium der Angebote in einer Range zwischen 1.500 und 50.000 EUR und Laufzeiten zwischen 12 und 72 Monaten weist kein einziges mit 3,71 % aus. 1500 bis 3000 EUR kann man allerdings für 4,1 % über 12 Monate haben. Die Citibanker scheinen es sehr nötig zu haben.

Wie war das noch bzgl. einer "Neuorientierung des Geschäftsmodells" (Unicredit)? Bis vor einigen Monaten noch war doch zumindest bei den großen Banken ein enormer Spread zwischen Soll- und Habenzinsen üblich.  

Bei den Optionen auf die Financials Select SPDRs (XLF) steht z.Z. eine Call/Put-Relation von über 3 an. Dies sollte zur Vorsicht mahnen.  

Letzte Meldung: Die französische Großbank muss zusätzliche 4,3 Mrd. EUR abschreiben.  

Bei der Betrachtung der Wachstumskurven der CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE Indices kann sich kaum jemand vorstellen, dass diese die Tiefs von 1991 erheblich unterbieten könnten.  

Ich würde mich nicht wundern, wenn nach dem 10-Mrd.-Verlust der UBS nun die Schweizer Notenbank die Zinsen senkt - mit der gleichen "Subprime-Begründung", die auch Kanada bei der jüngsten Zinssenkung angeführt hatte. England hat ja bereits gesenkt.

Spannend bleibt, wie lange sich die EZB-Falken diesem Trend noch widersetzen können/wollen. Posting 11702 zufolge dürfte auch die EZB bald einknicken, zumal der Euro sonst so erstarkt, dass die EU-Exportwirtschaft abgewürgt wird.

"Passende Stimmung" könnte kommen von der Immo-Krise in Spanien [interessant ist, das Spaniens Defizit mit 9 % des "current account" relativ betrachtet höher ist als in USA, wo es meines Wissens bei 6,x liegt], einer möglichen Verlagerung von Airbus-Arbeitsplätzen in den Dollarraum (wegen Euro-Stärke), außerdem vom neuen Hickhack, wer die 17 Mrd. Verluste der SachsenLB tragen soll. Wenn dieser Deal platzt - die LBBW also "zurücktritt" - , dann  wird es wirklich spannend.  

Mortgage crisis forces big cuts at WaMu



SEATTLE (AP) - Washington Mutual Inc. has become the latest lender to resort to a massive stock sale to shore up its finances amid turmoil in the mortgage and credit markets.

The nation's largest savings and loan also said it will close offices, lay off more than 3,000 workers, slash its dividend and set aside up to $1.6 billion for loan losses in the fourth quarter.

Word of WaMu's $2.5 billion convertible preferred stock offering came just hours after Switzerland-based UBS AG said it would sell $11.5 billion in shares to Government of Singapore Investment Corp., a sovereign-wealth fund, and to an unidentified investor in the Middle East.

Last month, Citigroup Inc. took a $7.5 billion investment from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority in exchange for up to 4.9 percent of Citigroup's equity, and government-sponsored mortgage finance companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae both recently announced sales of $6 billion and $7 billion in preferred stock, respectively.

WaMu has not yet priced its offering, but increasing the total number of company shares will dilute their value for existing stockholders. WaMu shares fell $1.76, or nearly 9 percent, to $18.12 following the company's announcement Monday.

When WaMu does price the sale, it may have to do so at less than favorable terms, if the other recent deals are any indication. In exchange for its cash, the Abu Dhabi fund will get an 11 percent annual yield from Citigroup. The Freddie Mac offering has a fixed dividend rate of 8.375 percent, almost 2 percentage points higher than its last sale of preferred stock, in September.

After cutting 1,000 jobs and dismantling much of its subprime mortgage operation in September, Seattle-based WaMu will now get out of the business entirely. The company said it will close about 190 of its 335 home loan centers and sales offices, shut down nine call centers and eliminate 2,600 home loan workers and 550 corporate and support jobs.

The company also said it will shutter WaMu Capital Corp. and rely on third party broker-dealers to sell mortgage-backed securities.

These changes, meant to address what WaMu called ""unprecedented challenges in the mortgage and credit markets,"" will save the thrift $140 million in the fourth quarter. But the company still expects to post a loss, due in part to a $1.6 billion charge for the writedown of goodwill associated with the shrinking home loans business.

On top of that, WaMu now expects to set aside between $1.5 billion and $1. 6 billion for the fourth quarter, up from the $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion predicted by executives in early November.

For the first quarter of 2008, the company said it expects loan losses to total $1.8 billion to $2 billion. Loan losses will remain high throughout the year, WaMu added.

The company also slashed its quarterly dividend to 15 cents per share from its most recent dividend of 56 cents per share, for savings of more than $1 billion.

Moody's Investors Service downgraded several long-term and short-term ratings for WaMu and said in a statement that the move ""was based on its view that credit losses from WaMu's mortgage operations will be noticeably higher than previously estimated."" The credit rating agency said it doesn't expect WaMu's profitability to begin to recover until 2010.

Fitch Ratings also downgraded WaMu's credit ratings.

Before the news, WaMu shares rose 85 cents, or more than 4 percent, to close at $19.88 Monday.  

Alles gar nicht so wild  ;-)   : "nur 'ne mild recession"...    

.......Energy producers and miners advanced on speculation a Fed interest rate cut will spur economic growth.

"""""`Mild' Recession

The U.S. will slip into a ``mild'' recession next year, Morgan Stanley said in its latest research yesterday, joining Merrill Lynch & Co. in predicting a slowdown for the world's largest economy.""""""

Growth will slow to a 0.4 percent pace in the current quarter, followed by declines of 0.3 percent in each of the first two quarters of 2008, Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley in New York, said in his weekly note to clients. ......

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=aPwe7a1QLKw0&refer=home  

weil ich's hier noch nicht gesehen habe:

BofA freezed Geldmarkt-Fonds i.H.v. 11Mrd. USD;
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=afHhlFatYHR0&refer=home  

test  

Bonds backed by commercial real estate have suffered their sharpest fall in value in recent months with new issuance down sharply and turnover among older issues crawling to a near halt.

Mike Kirby, head of research at Green Street Securities, a specialist in quoted real estate companies, says: “The CMBS [commercial mortgage-backed securities] market for the most part is shut down and dysfunctional right now. Banks still have an enormous amount of paper on their books from six months ago when lending standards were much looser.”n the US, spreads on the highest-rated simple AAA-rated securities were almost 100 basis points by mid-November against 25 bps for most of the year.

Spreads on BBB-rated securities are now 500 bps over the comparable risk-free rate and on some issues the spread is more than 1,000 bps.

Broadly speaking, a 100 bps rise in yield spread implies a 15 per cent fall in the value of underlying real estate......
But the CMBS move is in many ways puzzling. Unlike residential property in the US, there has been no explosion of subprime lending.. ...Darrell Wheeler, who tracks asset-backed securities at Citi, says: “There is no fundamental reason why the [residential mortgage-backed securities] and CMBS should trade together.”

Indeed, Mr Wheeler says, the sharp sell-off in CMBS may partly have been precipitated by an even steeper decline in a relatively new derivative, the CMBX, which allows investors to sell CMBS short.

The price of CMBX on BBB-rated paper implies spreads of 1,000 bps, well beyond what sounds reasonable for the market. Even an A-rated CMBS security would typically require a default rate of 20 per cent before investors lose anything, he says.

Analysts and bankers point to the emergence of a derivatives market in real estate as a key reason property is suddenly displaying a volatility not seen in previous cycles.

But the precipitous drop in the value of CMBS, along with anecdotal evidence from lenders, investors and analysts, suggest that expectations of losses are widespread. The reason there is little evidence of falling property prices may be because too few transactions are occurring for it to show up yet in data, according to bankers.

As for CMBS securities, it is too early in the cycle for foreclosure rates to be revealed by credit ratings agencies in the form of downgrades......
Bankers say privately that lending standards both in the UK and in the US – as measured by loan to value ratios and debt service/cash flow ratios have eroded significantly........http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/...dc-a25a-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
 

Bonds backed by commercial real estate have suffered their sharpest fall in value in recent months with new issuance down sharply and turnover among older issues crawling to a near halt.

Mike Kirby, head of research at Green Street Securities, a specialist in quoted real estate companies, says: “The CMBS [commercial mortgage-backed securities] market for the most part is shut down and dysfunctional right now. Banks still have an enormous amount of paper on their books from six months ago when lending standards were much looser.”n the US, spreads on the highest-rated simple AAA-rated securities were almost 100 basis points by mid-November against 25 bps for most of the year.

Spreads on BBB-rated securities are now 500 bps over the comparable risk-free rate and on some issues the spread is more than 1,000 bps.

Broadly speaking, a 100 bps rise in yield spread implies a 15 per cent fall in the value of underlying real estate......
But the CMBS move is in many ways puzzling. Unlike residential property in the US, there has been no explosion of subprime lending.. ...Darrell Wheeler, who tracks asset-backed securities at Citi, says: “There is no fundamental reason why the [residential mortgage-backed securities] and CMBS should trade together.”

Indeed, Mr Wheeler says, the sharp sell-off in CMBS may partly have been precipitated by an even steeper decline in a relatively new derivative, the CMBX, which allows investors to sell CMBS short.

The price of CMBX on BBB-rated paper implies spreads of 1,000 bps, well beyond what sounds reasonable for the market. Even an A-rated CMBS security would typically require a default rate of 20 per cent before investors lose anything, he says.

Analysts and bankers point to the emergence of a derivatives market in real estate as a key reason property is suddenly displaying a volatility not seen in previous cycles.

But the precipitous drop in the value of CMBS, along with anecdotal evidence from lenders, investors and analysts, suggest that expectations of losses are widespread. The reason there is little evidence of falling property prices may be because too few transactions are occurring for it to show up yet in data, according to bankers.

As for CMBS securities, it is too early in the cycle for foreclosure rates to be revealed by credit ratings agencies in the form of downgrades......
Bankers say privately that lending standards both in the UK and in the US – as measured by loan to value ratios and debt service/cash flow ratios have eroded significantly........http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/...dc-a25a-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
 

haben bzw. werden senken. ( = absehebar und erwartet)

Die EZB wird es  - bis auf weiteres (siehe Mandat der EZB) - nicht tun. @ AL schwingt da ein bisschen "zweckoptimismus" auf Grund der USD position mit?

Für alle Zukunft kann ich das natürlich nicht ausschließen, weil ich auch kein Hellseher bin - vorallem bzgl. Ölpreis- und Infltaionsentwicklung in 2008. Mindestens genauso wichtig wie der aktuelle Wechselkurs und die Exportchancen Europäischer Unternehmen sind nämlich auch die Geldwertstabilität und das Vertrauen in den € (Raum).

Erst wenn die Inflationsrisken spürbar abnehmen WÜRDEN (dazu müssten Öl- und Lebensmittelpreise weiter und nachhaltig nachgeben bzw. längerfristig stangnieren) - dann erst würde sich die EZB am Zinssenkungskarusell beteiligen.  



 

 

Es wird allgemein damit gerechnet, dass die Mitglieder des Offenmarktausschusses der Fed heute eine Leitzinssenkung um 25 Basispunkte auf 4,25 Prozent beschließen werden. Es bleibt jedoch abzuwarten, inwieweit dieser Schritt die amerikanische Wirtschaft vor dem Abgleiten in eine Rezession bewahren kann.

Jeremy Piger, Volkswirt der regionalen Fed von St. Louis, veranschaulichte vor vier Jahren, dass es für Fed-Präsident Ben Bernanke und Kollegen sehr viel schwieriger ist, das Wachstum durch Zinssenkungen zu stimulieren (die derzeitige Vorgehensweise), als das Wachstum durch Zinsanhebungen zu dämpfen (die Vorgehensweise im Falle einer überhitzten Wirtschaft). Piger fand heraus, dass es in der Vergangenheit nach einer Leitzinsanhebung um einen Prozentpunkt zu einer Verringerung des Quartals-BIP um 1,21 Prozentpunkte kam, während das Quartals-BIP in den zwei Jahren nach einer Leitzinssenkung um einen Prozentpunkt lediglich um 0,53 Prozentpunkte zulegen konnte. Eine Wachstumsverlangsamung ist demnach einfacher herbeizuführen als eine Wachstumsstimulierung.
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„Pushing on a string“

Die Fed kann dem Finanzsystem zwar mehr Geld bereitstellen, jedoch niemanden zwingen, dieses auch in Anspruch zu nehmen. Volkswirte im angelsächsischen Raum bezeichnen dieses Problem bildlich als „pushing on a string“: man kann einen Faden schieben, so lange man will; wenn auf der Gegenseite niemand zieht, wird sich der Faden dort anhäufen und weiter nichts bewirken.

Angesichts der gegenwärtigen Kreditkrise ist diese Tatsache noch problematischer als sonst, da bei Kreditgebern gegenwärtig stets die Angst mitschwingt, ihre vergebenen Kredite nicht wiederzusehen. Selbst der Geldhandel der Banken untereinander wird zusehends teurer. William Gross, leitender Aktienstratege der Allianz-Fondstochter Pimco, schrieb in seinem Dezember-Rundschreiben: „Die Zinssenkung der Fed hat zu einem Rückgang der Staatsanleihenrenditen geführt, während sich der restliche Markt - das auf die Einkommenssituation amerikanischer Unternehmen, Eigenheimbesitzer und Verbraucher einwirkende Segment - kaum verändert hat.“

Gross gelangt zu dem Schluss, dass der Leitzins „letztlich wahrscheinlich auf drei Prozent oder darunter abgesenkt werden muss“. Erst dann habe sich das Geld ausreichend verbilligt, um der Wirtschaft echte Wachstumsimpulse zu verleihen.

Robuster Arbeitsmarkt?

Ben Bernanke und seine Kollegen von der Fed können froh sein, dass sich der Arbeitsmarkt der Vereinigten Staaten trotz der Kreditklemme bislang erstaunlich gut geschlagen hat. Am 7. Dezember meldete das amerikanische Arbeitsministerium für November 94.000 neu geschaffene Stellen, während die Arbeitslosenquote bei 4,7 Prozent verharrte. Diese guten Nachrichten verringerten die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Zinsschrittes um einen halben Prozentpunkt, was für Marktteilnehmer einer Art Notfallmaßnahme gleichkäme. Derzeit wettet der Markt auf eine Zinssenkung von 25 Basispunkten.

Der Arbeitsmarkt ist indes alles andere als immun gegenüber den herrschenden Kreditproblemen. Thomas Higgins, Chefvolkswirt beim Vermögensverwalter Payden & Rygel, schrieb am 7. Dezember, dass der gleitende Sechsmonatsdurchschnitt der Beschäftigungszuwächse von 190.000 Ende 2006 auf weniger als die Hälfte im November des laufenden Jahres zurückging. Die Zahl der Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe tendiert derweil nach oben. „Ein Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit ist nur eine Frage der Zeit“, so Higgins.

Standard & Poor’s has downgraded the capital notes of all its rated structured investment vehicles, and said it did not expect the asset class to survive. It also put 18 of these off-balance sheet vehicles on “ratings watch negative”, meaning downgrades are likely in the near future.

“The SIV as a type of vehicle is unlikely to persist and thus we formally assigned negative outlooks due to the issues in this sector,” the ratings agency said.....The ratings action affected SIVs managed by Citigroup, Dresdner Kleinwort and Société Générale. Up to $1bn of junior debt issued by Citigroup’s Five Finance was slashed to CCC from BBB+.S&P also cut to junk the ratings on the junior debt of SocGen’s Premier Asset Collateralised Entity (Pace) and Dresdner’s $22bn K2. SocGen on Monday said it would bring all of Pace’s assets on to its own balance sheet.

Pace’s most junior capital notes have lost about three-quarters of their value to date, and the SIV is close to breaching its capital adequacy test.

S&P put Pace’s senior notes on watch for possible downgrade, as well as the triple-A rated Harrier Finance Funding and Orion Finance vehicles.(Financial Times heute früh)  

 

Results for the 3rd quarter of 2007 are highlighted by a negative 2.5% capital return for the properties sold in the NCREIF database. This is the first negative quarterly price change in the TBI since the third quarter of 2003, when prices fell 2.4 percent. The investment total returns for all properties also registered a decline of 1.7 percent. Please note that the TBI is a statistical methodology that produces estimates of price movements and total returns based on transactions of properties sold from the NCREIF Index database. MIT makes no warranty or claim regarding the usefulness or implications of the index. It should also be noted that TBI results for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters of any year are considered preliminary and subject to revision until the calendar year is completed with the 4th quarter results.

http://web.mit.edu/CRE/research/credl/tbi.html

was istn da los? wie wurde entschieden?  

The Federal Reserve has cut a key interest rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to 4.25 percent, the third rate cut in three months.

 

gefallen. Schade, dass ich nicht short war, aber so heftig hab ich's nicht erwartet.