Jeder wie er's mag ;-) Ich fühle mich in einer Rally wohler ohne Shorts, weil ich dann mental "freier" bin und besser schlafe. Das liegt an meinen hohen Volumina. Dass ich Umkehrpunkte relativ sicher finden kann hab ich ja schon gezeigt und darauf vertraue ich auch in Zukunft. (Tipp: Mittelfristige Umkehrformationen dauern in der Regel ca. eine Woche, d.h. es ist Zeit genug dafür)

Was meinen Verlust betrifft war der ja gerade durch entstanden, dass ich nicht wie immer auf eine Superchance gewartet, sondern im Affekt gehandelt habe. Typisches Lehrgeld eben. Es muß wehtun, sonst wirkt es nicht ;-)  

Wie von der FED angekündigt, wird sie vermehrtes Augenmerk auf die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes legen. Doch hier sind die Zahlen widersprüchlich und teilweise fast schon zu gut für eine Zinssenkung...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. private-sector employment rose by 189,000 in November, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday.
The report suggests the labor market remains a source of strength as the economy weakens in the fourth quarter. A strong job market may make some analyst rethink their projections that the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut short-term interest rates by a half a percentage point next week.
The ADP report's results are well above projections of Wall Street economists for the government nonfarm payrolls survey to be released on Friday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are expecting payrolls -- both public-and private-sector -- to grow about 60,000 for November. See Economic Calendar.
The ADP report's considered by some to be the best single predictor of the government's nonfarm payroll report.
Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomics Advisers, the economic firm that computes the ADP index from anonymous payroll data supplied by Automatic Data Processing Inc., said seasonal hiring may have been stronger than analysts were expecting.
Prakken said that Wall Street economists are too pessimistic, given all the discussion of the turmoil in subprime mortgage market and financial meltdown.
"Employment is a lagging indicator of GDP. We've just come off two very strong quarters of GDP," Prakken said in an interview on CNBC television.
Prakken said the data were adjusted for a five-week period, but there were no other statistical quirks.
Adding an estimated 25,000 or so additional government jobs that aren't included in the ADP index, the ADP report suggests nonfarm payrolls likely rose by about 214,000 in November.
The ADP sample is taken during the same week of the month as the government survey, using similar techniques on anonymous sample data compiled from about 307,000 business sites covering about 17 million workers. Roseland, N.J.-based ADP (ADP:
Automatic Data Processing, Inc provides payroll and human-resources services to about one of every six U.S. workers, at more than 500,000 companies.
According to the report, the service sector produced all of the jobs in November, adding 197,000 jobs. Employment in the goods-producing sector fell by 8,000. Manufacturing jobs declined a slim 5,000.
The ADP has averaged 123,000 jobs created in the last three months, stronger than 43,000 in the period from July-September. End of Story  

Nouriel Roubini hat wohl mein Posting #10396 von vor 10 Tagen gelesen; er fordert sofortige Zinssenkungen aller Zentralbanken:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/230471

The central banks current concerns with a rise in inflation are totally misplaced as a US recession will lead to global disinflation (and concerns about deflation as in 2002-2003) via four channels:

a) a fall in US aggregate demand relative to supply;

b) a slack in labor market conditions and slowdown in wage growth as the unemployment rates sharply increases;

c) a fall in global aggregate demand as the glut of output from overinvestment in China and some other EMs will face a fall in global demand as the world recouples with the US hard landing;

d) a sharp fall in oil, energy, food and other commodities prices as a global slowdown emerges.  We are set for the repeat of the 2000-2003 cycle when the Fed and other central banks underestimated the downside risks to growth and overestimated the upward risks to inflation and ended up having to aggressively cut rates to deal with the fall in economic activity and the deflation risks that such a US and global recession triggered.  

CIBC is out with an important call on the financial sector, saying the modern foundation of the lending market is about to be uprooted as FICO scores, the long trusted gauge for lenders in determining risk and price, will prove virtually meaningless in this credit cycle.

Today, as a higher percentage of people own homes and many of them have taken on "too much house" or high LTV (loan to value ratio) loans, things are different. Many previously-considered "prime" customers who took on 80+% LTVs are performing closer to sub-prime loans. While "indirect" exposure to sub-prime losses has already been felt through banks' exposure to mortgage backed securities of all flavors (CDOs, RMBS, etc.), the firm believes the impact of "direct" exposure to subprime loans on the books has yet to be truly appreciated by investors. High LTV mortgage loans is the greatest risk pool of U.S. consumer loans, and Citigroup (NYSE:C) has the single highest exposure to it. CIBC estimates that C will incur losses on such loans of $4-6.5 billion in 2008, or 31% to 51% of its 3Q07 total loss reserve. Accordingly, they are again lowering their estimates......
CIBC continues to rate Citigroup 'Sector Underperformer'. Trading at 11x 2008 EPS estimate, shares are expensive, in firm's opinion, given that in the early 1990s, a troubled C traded as low as 7x forward EPS estimates......The loans with high LTV ratios mean borrowers have put little skin in the game and have little equity in their home, and thus will be less motivated to stay current on that loan. A high LTV loan can turn even the most prime/high FICO borrower into a sub prime performing borrower.

This means the problems may run much deeper than currently anticipated.

It also looks like Citigroup (NYSE:C) is in the center of this maelstrom. If CIBC is right, I suspect the stock is headed lower here. Shorting C here in the pre-market (while it's still in the green) may prove to be a money-making idea.

Please note that CIBC is also taking their estimates down on JP Morgan
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...loans-vulnerable-citi-most-exposed  

mE fällt es da manchmal gigantisch schwer zwischen gezielter Stimmungs/Meinungsmache und der Realität zu unterscheiden.
Jeder versucht ein Stück vom Kuchen abzuschnibbeln bzw. seinen Senf zum Meinungsbrei zuzugeben und präsentiert "seine" Zahlen dann auch entsprechend "seiner" Denkweise bzw. Manipulationsabsicht.

Alles, was derzeit klar ist also nochmal deutlich herausgestellt: die Märkte werden trudeln!  

lass dich nicht verunsichern: Wie ich bereits vor zwei Wochen im Low gepostet hatte: Die Kurse machen die Nachrichten nicht umgekehrt. Jetzt steigt es, also MÜSSEN die News positiv getextet sein, sonst liest sie keiner. Egal, ob es die Wahrheit ist oder nicht, die Journallie will ja auch verkaufen.

Den Umkehrpunkt findest du, indem du auf den Newsflow und die Kursreaktionen achtest. Wenn beides nicht mehr zusammenpasst knallt es bald. Im Moment läuft es jedoch Hand in Hand (steigende Kurse auf gute News), also ist das Top noch entfernt.

Fundamental sieht es sehr sehr übel aus, egal was geschrieben wird. Schau dir mal die Makrodaten ganz unvoreingenommen an! Ich war dieses Jahr noch nie so bearisch wie jetzt, und das will was heißen!  

null  

 

Deflation zum Exporteur von Inflation. Das Wachstum ist vollkommen außer Kontrolle.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/News/Unternehmen/...or-einem-dilemma.html

 

ISM non-manufactoring index
MarketWatch.com
2007-12-05

... New orders fell to 51.1% from 55.7%. This is the lowest level since April 2003.

The employment index fell to 50.8% from 51.8%. Nieves (ISM) said service sector employers were being cautious about hiring new workers. The employment index conflicts with the November job survey released earlier in the morning by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP). The ADP report found 189,000 jobs created in November, with most of the strength coming from the service sector.

Inflation pressures spiked in November. The price index jumped to 76.5% from 63.5% in the previous month. This is the second highest level on record. The only higher reading came in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Nieves said higher food and energy prices are creating inflation pressures for the sector.

...  

...denn schließlich ist die Meldung gegen ihre Interessen:

---------------------

AUSBLICK

Fidelity warnt vor US-Werten
[12:30, 03.12.07]

Von Wolf Brandes

Die größte unabhängige Investmentgesellschaft der Welt erwartet im 2008 raue Zeiten an den Börsen. Befürchtet werden Probleme beim Konsum in den USA im Zuge der Hypothekenkrise. Besser sieht es dagegen in Europa aus. Die Experten empfehlen insbesondere Standardwerte, die vergleichsweise günstig seien. Den Finanzsektor sollten Anleger aber generell meiden.

 

Die Aussichten für die US-Aktienmärkte sind nach Einschätzung von Fidelity schlecht. Die Verwerfungen an den Kreditmärkten würden voraussichtlich noch ein bis zwei Jahre anhalten, heißt es in einer Analyse. Ein belastender Faktor für Investoren, die sich in den USA engagieren, sei zudem der schwache US-Dollar und die damit verbundenen Wechselkursrisiken. Wegen der Unsicherheit an den Finanzmärkten im Zuge der US-Hypothekenkrise sind die Geldgeber zu einer restriktiveren Kreditvergabepraxis übergegangen. "Die Zeit des billigen Geldes ist vorüber", so Gordon. Auch der Konsum in den USA könnte 2008 ins Stocken geraten. Die fallenden Preise am amerikanischen Wohnimmobilienmarkt beginnen langsam, sich in sinkendem Verbrauchervertrauen niederzuschlagen. Sollte die Lage auf dem US-Häusermarkt weiterhin angespannt bleiben oder sich weiter verschlechtern, dämpft dies die Verbraucherausgaben. Dies wiederum kann die Zuversicht der Unternehmer eintrüben.

 Die Einzeltitelauswahl ist besonders wichtig.Generell sollten Investoren den Finanzsektor wegen der US-Hypothekenkrise jedoch meiden. Die Banken werden nach Ansicht der Experten ihre Gewinnprognosen weiter reduzieren. „Dieser Zyklus dauert rund 18 Monate, sofern er historischen Mustern folgt“, schreibt Fidelity. Da Kreditinstitute gemessen an ihrem Börsenwert großes Gewicht in vielen bedeutenden Aktienindizes haben, wirkt sich ihre Negativentwicklung besonders ungünstig auf die Märkte insgesamt aus.

Wichtig sei 2008 die Einzeltitelauswahl: „Für den Anlageerfolg wird es wichtiger denn je, die Fundamentaldaten in den Mittelpunkt der Aktienauswahl zu stellen. Nur so lassen sich Firmen finden, die auch in rauen Zeiten ihre Gewinne steigern", sagt Michael Gordon, Global Chief Investment Officer bei Fidelity International. Im Vergleich der Regionen bietet Europa aus Sicht der Investmentfirma gute Perspektiven. „Standardwerte sind zu günstig geworden, um sie links liegen zu lassen. Sie bieten derzeit das attraktivste Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis", sagt Alexander Scurlock, Fondsmanager des Fidelity European Growth. Auch für die asiatischen Aktienmärkte sind die Investmentexperten von Fidelity optimistisch gestimmt.

 

www.boerse-online.de

 

Tech drove Black Friday, but growth was weak: survey

By Angela Moore, MarketWatch
          NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- GPS devices, notebook computers, LCD TVs and digital frames were among the hottest items of Black Friday this year, but growth in the category was lackluster, market researcher NPD Group said in a survey released Wednesday.

        Consumer technology retail sales grew by 6% over 2006 to $2.2 billion for the week ended Nov. 23, NPD said. This figure is less than one-half of last year's growth rate, and it's the first time in the six years NPD has tracked this data that dollar-sales growth dipped below double digits.              
            Consumer technology sales rose 12% last year and 15% in 2005, NPD said.              
"While revenue growth declined this year, we're at least seeing a more rational pricing environment than last year, as well as a more stable competitive outlook," said Stephen Baker, NPD's vice president, industry analysis. "This is most certainly a positive harbinger of expected profitability throughout the holiday season, even if it calls growth prospects into some doubt."

Black Friday, or the day after Thanksgiving, is the day when retailers traditionally go "into the black," or turn a profit, for the year. Most retailers are slated to report November sales results on Thursday, which will reflect Black Friday sales results. See full story.

 

   

'While revenue growth declined this year, we're seeing a more rational pricing environment than last year, as well as a more stable competitive outlook.'— Stephen Baker, NPD Group

       

 

 

 

 

Retailers frequently offer widespread discounts, extended hours and special events to lure shoppers into stores. But sweeping markdowns might drive sales, but they can pinch profit margins.

LCD TVs were a top performer this year, NPD said. Unit volume rose 45% and revenue jumped 80%, driven by changes in the product mix that has occurred over the past year. This year 30-inch-and-larger products outsold the smaller sizes, which led to triple-digit increases in units and dollars among the larger sized TVs, NPD said. Notebook computers also drove some solid unit increases and dollar gains during Black Friday, but represented "something of a comedown from last year," NPD said. Notebook sales volume rose nearly 30%, while revenue increased almost 17%. Their average price declined by less than 10% this year, compared to 18% last year. GPS, or global positioning systems, were the best performing category of 2007. Unit sales increased six-fold over last year, NPD said. More GPS devices were sold this year, than PCs, 30-inch-and-larger LCD TVs, and plasma TVs. "While sales volumes were strong last year, it was more of an introduction for the category, than it was the establishment of a long-term opportunity," Baker said. "Sales this year appear to cement GPS as a long-term major player." Another category break-out performance was digital picture frames, NPD said. Unit volume for Black Friday 2007 reached nearly 500,000 units and $30 million. Some popular categories declined this year. For the second year in a row, more MP3 players were sold than any other product, but the year-long category sales slowdown was still felt during Black Friday, NPD said. Unit-sales volume rose 4%, which likely was driven by the success of recently introduced  Apple Inc iPod products. Digital cameras have been a perennial staple of Black Friday advertising for many years. This year, point-and-shoot Black Friday average selling prices fell by 14% from 2006. Unit-volume growth in 2007 was just 11% percent; consequently, overall point-and-shoot revenue fell 5% from the year earlier. "Despite the relatively poor overall results we remain optimistic about the holidays," Baker said. "Given the position of many of the largest categories on the growth curve, it was inevitable that overall volume growth rates would decline; however, a continuation of the more benign pricing environment noted on Black Friday should make for a reasonable, but not spectacular, holiday selling season." End of Story

 

 

Tech drove Black Friday, but growth was weak: survey

By Angela Moore, MarketWatch
          NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- GPS devices, notebook computers, LCD TVs and digital frames were among the hottest items of Black Friday this year, but growth in the category was lackluster, market researcher NPD Group said in a survey released Wednesday.

        Consumer technology retail sales grew by 6% over 2006 to $2.2 billion for the week ended Nov. 23, NPD said. This figure is less than one-half of last year's growth rate, and it's the first time in the six years NPD has tracked this data that dollar-sales growth dipped below double digits.              
            Consumer technology sales rose 12% last year and 15% in 2005, NPD said.              
"While revenue growth declined this year, we're at least seeing a more rational pricing environment than last year, as well as a more stable competitive outlook," said Stephen Baker, NPD's vice president, industry analysis. "This is most certainly a positive harbinger of expected profitability throughout the holiday season, even if it calls growth prospects into some doubt."

Black Friday, or the day after Thanksgiving, is the day when retailers traditionally go "into the black," or turn a profit, for the year. Most retailers are slated to report November sales results on Thursday, which will reflect Black Friday sales results. See full story.

 

   

'While revenue growth declined this year, we're seeing a more rational pricing environment than last year, as well as a more stable competitive outlook.'— Stephen Baker, NPD Group

       

 

 

 

 

Retailers frequently offer widespread discounts, extended hours and special events to lure shoppers into stores. But sweeping markdowns might drive sales, but they can pinch profit margins.

LCD TVs were a top performer this year, NPD said. Unit volume rose 45% and revenue jumped 80%, driven by changes in the product mix that has occurred over the past year. This year 30-inch-and-larger products outsold the smaller sizes, which led to triple-digit increases in units and dollars among the larger sized TVs, NPD said. Notebook computers also drove some solid unit increases and dollar gains during Black Friday, but represented "something of a comedown from last year," NPD said. Notebook sales volume rose nearly 30%, while revenue increased almost 17%. Their average price declined by less than 10% this year, compared to 18% last year. GPS, or global positioning systems, were the best performing category of 2007. Unit sales increased six-fold over last year, NPD said. More GPS devices were sold this year, than PCs, 30-inch-and-larger LCD TVs, and plasma TVs. "While sales volumes were strong last year, it was more of an introduction for the category, than it was the establishment of a long-term opportunity," Baker said. "Sales this year appear to cement GPS as a long-term major player." Another category break-out performance was digital picture frames, NPD said. Unit volume for Black Friday 2007 reached nearly 500,000 units and $30 million. Some popular categories declined this year. For the second year in a row, more MP3 players were sold than any other product, but the year-long category sales slowdown was still felt during Black Friday, NPD said. Unit-sales volume rose 4%, which likely was driven by the success of recently introduced  Apple Inc iPod products. Digital cameras have been a perennial staple of Black Friday advertising for many years. This year, point-and-shoot Black Friday average selling prices fell by 14% from 2006. Unit-volume growth in 2007 was just 11% percent; consequently, overall point-and-shoot revenue fell 5% from the year earlier. "Despite the relatively poor overall results we remain optimistic about the holidays," Baker said. "Given the position of many of the largest categories on the growth curve, it was inevitable that overall volume growth rates would decline; however, a continuation of the more benign pricing environment noted on Black Friday should make for a reasonable, but not spectacular, holiday selling season." End of Story

 

 

Russian inflation rate continues its surge
Consumer-prices rise is Russia's main economic problem: Merrill analyst
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Russian inflation continued to accelerate in November, fueled by surging food prices, bringing the year-to-date rise in consumer prices to 10.6% and underscoring the policy dilemmas facing local officials.
Consumer-price inflation rose 1.2% in November and was above market expectations. The main contributor was food-price inflation which surged 1.9% month-on-month. Year-to-date inflation surged to 10.6%.
Analysts at Denmark's Danske Bank expect that consumer-prices increase to measure 12.1% at year-end, much higher than Russia's official target of 8%.
"Today's inflation release is bad news for the Russian authorities, who over the last couple of months have faced quite a few inflation shocks," said Lars Rasmussen, an analyst at Denmark's Danske Bank. "Looking ahead to the first half of 2008, the inflation picture looks even bleaker."

weiter gehts hier:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/...A9B%2DA039%2D3C740E12597C%7D  

Bond insurers fall; Moody's warns on MBIA

By Alistair Barr
Last update: 1:16 p.m. EST Dec. 5, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bond insurers fell on Wednesday after rating agency Moody's Investors Service warned that MBIA Inc. may be more likely to face a capital shortfall than previously thought. "With regard to MBIA, additional analysis of its direct RMBS portfolio leads Moody's to believe the guarantor is at greater risk of exhibiting a capital shortfall than previously communicated; we now consider this somewhat likely," the agency said in a statement. MBIA shares fell 11% during afternoon trading on Wednesday, giving up earlier strong gains. Rival Ambac dropped 6%. End of Story  

 ...jetzt werden sie ALLE abgewertet... von ALLEN...

MBIA Capital Shortfall May Be `Likely,' Moody's Says (Update2)

   

By Christine Richard

                                           

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc. is ``somewhat likely'' to face a capital shortfall, throwing its AAA credit rating in jeopardy and putting at risk the rankings of the state, municipal and corporate debt it guarantees, Moody's Investors Service said. The shares tumbled as much as 16 percent.

       

A review of MBIA, the largest bond insurer, will be completed within two weeks, Moody's said in a statement today. Moody's said additional scrutiny of the Armonk, New York-based bond insurer's mortgage-backed securities portfolio caused it to revise its assessment.

       

``The guarantor is at greater risk of exhibiting a capital shortfall than previously communicated,'' Moody's said. ``We now consider this somewhat likely.''

       

The loss of MBIA's top ranking would cast doubt over the ratings of $652 billion of municipal and structured finance bonds that the company guarantees. MBIA is among at least eight bond insurers seeking to ward off potential credit-rating downgrades by Moody's, Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's. The insurers guarantee $2.4 trillion of debt and downgrades could cause losses of as much as $200 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

       

``Clearly it's not a good development for the company,'' said Rob Haines, an analyst at CreditSights Inc. in New York. ``The agencies have better visibility about the companies and maybe they've seen something that's troubling or it's just general deterioration in the market.''

       

Ambac Financial Group Inc., the second-largest bond insurer, Financial Guaranty Insurance Co., the fourth-largest, and Security Capital Assurance Ltd. are also ``somewhat likely'' to have a capital shortfall, Moody's said today. CIFG Guaranty, considered the most likely to fall below the benchmark, was bailed out by parents Groupe Banque Populaire and Groupe Caisse d'Epargne.

       

MBIA fell $4.31, or 13 percent, to $28.32 at 1:31 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

       

Liz James, a spokeswoman for MBIA, said the company had no immediate comment.

 

Marktbericht

Zins- und Wirtschaftsoptimismus läßt die Börsen boomen

05. Dezember 2007 Fest ist der deutsche Aktienmarkt am Mittwoch aus dem Handel gegangen. Der Dax stieg um 1,7 Prozent oder 136 auf 7.945 Punkte, kein einziger Dax-Wert schloss im Minus. Gehandelt wurden Aktien für 5,9 Milliarden Euro nach 7,4 Milliarden Euro am Dienstag. „Damit hat sich der Dax klammheimlich der 8.000er-Marke genähert - und keiner ist dabei“, fasste ein Händler das Tagesgeschehen zusammen.

Nachrichtlich habe es kaum Gründe zur Erklärung des Kursanstiegs gegeben. Lediglich die kräftige Erholung der amerikanische Börsen wurde als Grund angeführt. Händler verwiesen jedoch auf beginnendes „Window Dressing“ zum Jahresende. „Es sind nur noch 14 Handelstage bis zum Jahresende“, erklärte ein weiterer Händler. Die Bücher der Fondsgesellschaften seien bereits geschlossen, es sei nun leicht, auch mit kleineren Orders die Kurse nach oben zu schönen. Vor allem in den Nebenwerten des MDax und TecDax legten die Kurse teils über 5 Prozent zu.

 

Daten werden notorisch positiv für die Märkte interpretiert

 

Fundamental stützten mehrere positiv interpretierte amerikanische Konjunkturdaten; sie untermauerten zumindest im Markt die Erwartung von Zinssenkungen durch die amerikanische Notenbank, obwohl sie ihnen fundamental eigentlich widersprachen. Unter anderem fiel der ISM-Index für das amerikanische Dienstleistungsgewerbe knapp unter Erwartung aus. Die Produktivitätszahlen für das dritte Quartal stiegen hingegen überraschend deutlich an. Inflation durch steigende Löhne sei damit kein Hindernis für Zinssenkungen, hieß es. Technische Analysten sehen den Dax kurzfristig über der 7.900er-Marke konsolidieren, dann sei ein Anstieg bis rund 8.050 Punkte denkbar.

Weiter unter www.faz.net/s/RubF3F7C1F630AE4F8D8326AC2A80BDBBDE/...on~Sspezial.html

 

Meinung, Beitragsnummer: 85881, Veröffentlicht: 30.11.2007 19:38

Die wirkliche Gefahr

JOURNALISTEN YEALD-Kolumnist Bernd Niquet erinnert sich an große Korrekturen an Aktienmärkten. Auslöser dafür ist der zuletzt drastische Wertverfall des Dollars. Niquet schwant Böses: Denn der letzte Wechsel der Leitwährung hat uns eine epochale Katastrophe beschert, nämlich die Weltwirtschaftskrise von 1929.Betrifft:   Aktien   Deutschland   Finanzplanung   Finanzwesen   Investment   Verbraucher   Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika  

von Bernd Niquet Schriftsteller und freiberuflicher Journalist in Berlin. mehr... Kontakt: Nachricht an den Autor

Ich glaube, es war im Jahr 1998, mitten in der großen Hausse, in der die Anleger jedoch heftige zwischenzeitliche Korrekturen überstehen mussten. Da fragte mich einmal ein Leser, was denn eigentlich passieren müsste, um mich von meinem Grundvertrauen in die Entwicklung der Aktienmärkte und damit den Glauben an die Überlegenheit der Aktie gegenüber anderen Anlageformen abzubringen. Damals habe ich geantwortet, dass ich dann anfangen würde generell umzudenken, wenn der Dollar heftig ins Rutschen kommen und das weltweite Vertrauen in den Dollar verloren gehen könnte.

Daran habe ich mich jetzt erinnert. Denn was gegenwärtig mit dem Dollar passiert, gibt Anlass zu allergrößter Sorge. Die ölexportierenden Länder fangen ganz offen an, den Dollar als Fakturierungswährung ihrer Ressourcen abzulehnen. Und letztlich kann man die ganze Rohstoffpreisentwicklung durchaus auch durch die Dollar-Brille sehen. Danach wären die Preisaufschläge für die Rohstoffe, und ganz besonders für Gold und die Edelmetalle, gar keine Absicherung gegen die Inflation, sondern vielmehr als Ausgleich gegen den Verfall des Dollars zu betrachten.

>> Der letzte Wechsel der Leitwährung führte zur Weltwirtschaftskrise von 1929

Dabei sind beide Dinge natürlich untrennbar miteinander verbunden: Die Dollarabwertung bringt den USA eine importierte Inflation, von der die anderen Länder trotz ihrer harten Währungen jedoch nicht verschont bleiben, weil nämlich die kompensierenden Rohstoffpreiserhöhungen sie ebenfalls treffen.

Das entscheidende Problem des Dollarverfalls liegt jedoch in einem anderen Bereich: Der letzte Wechsel der Leitwährung hat uns eine epochale Katastrophe beschert, nämlich die Weltwirtschaftskrise von 1929. Damals bildete die Leitwährung das britische Pfund – und es zeigte sich nach dem Ersten Weltkrieg ähnlich schwach wie der Dollar heute. Denn Großbritannien ging geschwächt aus diesem Krieg hervor und konnte seine Funktion als "Lender of last resort" nur noch bedingt erfüllen.

Eingesprungen sind damals die USA, der große Kriegsgewinner und der größte Gläubiger der Welt. Doch die Kredite an die Schuldnerländer wurden nur kurzfristig gewährt – und man zog sie (angesichts des Börsensturzes 1929) gerade in dem Moment zurück, als sie am dringendsten gebraucht wurden. Ein Blick auf die Zahlen von damals lehrt einen das Grausen: Alleine zwischen den Jahren 1928 und 1929 halbierte sich beispielsweise der Netto-Kapitalexport der größten Gläubigerländer.

Die USA verkörperten damals de facto bereits das Leitwährungsland, waren sich der damit verbundenen Verantwortung jedoch noch nicht bewusst – und überdies viel zu sehr mit den Ereignissen im eigenen Lande beschäftigt. Und so zogen sie ihre Kredite aus dem Ausland ab und stürzten diese Länder in eine heftige Krise, deren Impulse die ursprünglichen Krisensymptome noch weiter verschlimmerten und beide sich gegenseitig aufschaukelten, bis eine Gemengelage entstand, die den Welthandel binnen weniger Jahre um zwei Drittel schrumpfen ließ.

>> Dollarverfall: Die Kopernikanische Wende an den Finanzmärkten

Derartiges ist heute sicherlich kaum vorstellbar. Und es sieht auch nicht danach aus, als ob ein Ausbleiben von Fremdwährungskrediten das Zentralproblem der Weltwirtschaft wäre. Wenn nicht alles täuscht, besteht die wirkliche Sprengkraft eher in der exakt umgekehrten Situation: Die ganze Welt hat enorme Dollarguthaben angehäuft, deren Wertverlust sie jetzt zu beklagen hat. Zudem lebt die halbe Welt von den Exporten in die USA, so dass eigentlich niemand ein Interesse an einer Bestrafung der USA für ihre laxe Geldpolitik haben kann.

Jetzt beginnt sich der Systemfehler zu "rächen", dass nämlich das Leitwährungsland USA seit mittlerweile über 20 Jahren seine Währung den anderen nicht im Wege der Kreditvergabe, sondern des Warenimports zur Verfügung stellt. Denn Kredite wären ein Ausweis von Forderungen und daher ein Zeichen von Stärke und Macht zum Durchhalten. Warenimporte hingegen entsprechen einem Aufbau von Schulden und sind mithin ein Zeichen von Schwäche. Und wenn der „Leader of the gang“ zu schwach wird, dann läuft das ganze System Gefahr, in Turbulenzen zu geraten.

Sollte also der Dollar tatsächlich seine alles bestimmende Rolle verlieren, dann wäre das nichts anderes als eine Kopernikanische Wende an den Finanzmärkten. Doch verkörperte die Wende des Kopernikus nur eine Wende im Denken, die das Universum an sich jedoch unangetastet ließ, so würde eine entsprechende Wende an den Finanzmärkten dagegen tatsächlich wirksam die Gravitationskräfte umdrehen. Und was dann passiert, das kann niemand sagen. Die alte Stabilität jedenfalls, die uns ja trotz aller Bewegungen seit Jahrzehnten gut behütet, wäre dann hinüber.  

Fed May Couple Cut With Measures to Increase Credit (Update2)

   

By Scott Lanman

                                                                                                                     

     Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials, who are forecast to lower their main interest rate next week, are signaling that they are looking for additional ways to increase credit to companies and consumers.

       

The Fed may lower the discount rate -- what it charges banks for short-term direct loans -- by a quarter-point more than the benchmark rate after Vice Chairman Donald Kohn and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen publicly expressed frustration that previous rate cuts haven't encouraged banks to lend to one another.

       

Such a move would narrow the gap between the two rates -- normally 1 percentage point -- to a quarter-point. Economists said that may spur lending by easing the stigma of borrowing at the discount rate, letting firms claim they are taking advantage of a better deal.

       

``The Fed has to re-liquefy the markets to reduce the risk of a financial accident,'' said Lou Crandall, who used to work at the New York Fed and is now chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC, a Jersey City, New Jersey-based research firm that focuses on government debt.

       

Policy makers are struggling to contain a crisis of confidence among banks that sent the cost of three-month loans between lenders to the highest in seven years. Failure to head off a credit crunch may send the economy into its first recession since 2001, economists said.

       

Rate Forecasts

       

Crandall predicted the Fed will lower the discount rate by half a point, to 4.5 percent, and the main federal funds rate target by a quarter-point to 4.25 percent when it meets Dec. 11.

       

Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., wrote on his Web site the Fed may have to lower the rate below 3 percent next year to ``restart a near recessionary economy.'' His forecasts have a checkered history: he said in May 2005 the Fed would stop raising rates at 3.25 percent. By June 2006, the benchmark was 5.25 percent.

       

Futures prices indicate a two-thirds chance of a quarter- point move in the federal funds rate next week and a one-third chance of a half-point reduction. That compares with about a 50- 50 probability yesterday, before today's ADP Employer Services report showed companies added more than triple the number of jobs economists had forecast for November.

       

`Frustrated' Fed

       

``The Fed is frustrated they can't get anyone to come to the discount window,'' said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., and a former head of domestic economic research at the New York Fed. ``If the Fed lowers the discount rate closer to the funds rate, banks can represent their decision as merely borrowing at the best place to get money, rather than an act of desperation.''

       

The Fed has other options to ease the funding crunch besides reducing the penalty for discount-window borrowing.

       

One possibility is tripling the length of discount-window financing to 90 days from 30, said Stephen Cecchetti, a former research director at the New York Fed. The central bank, in its Aug. 17 decision to lower the discount rate a half-point to 5.75 percent, also extended the terms to allow 30-day financing instead of just overnight loans.

       

``Lengthening the term of the lending would really be more important,'' said Cecchetti, now a professor at Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts.

       

Year-End Crush

       

Demand for cash typically rises at the end of the year as banks conserve funds to buttress balance sheets before closing their books. This year, that has combined with concerns about mounting losses on securities linked to mortgages at risk of default to cause borrowing costs to climb.

       

One gauge watched by the Fed shows rates at their highest relative to the Fed's benchmark since 2000.

       

The three-month dollar London Interbank Offered Rate, a benchmark for corporate borrowing, climbed to 65 basis points more than the Fed's target federal-funds rate yesterday. Excluding Sept. 18, when the Fed lowered its rate by half a point, that's the widest spread since May 2000, a period that includes the last U.S. recession in 2001. [Aber hallo, das kennen wir ja schon...;)]

       

Policy makers first addressed the August credit collapse by injecting funds into money markets, then lowering the discount rate. The Federal Open Market Committee followed up the next two months by cutting both rates by 0.75 percentage point.

       

Rate Gap

       

Officials sought to enhance the attractiveness of the discount window by reducing the gap with the federal funds rate and widening the collateral accepted for loans. While borrowing rose to $2.9 billion in the week ended Sept. 12, the highest since 2001, it has since fallen back, to $7 million last week.

       

The ``discount window has not been as used, or been as helpful at addressing liquidity issues, as I would have hoped,'' San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said Dec. 3 in Seattle. Along with other officials, she noted a ``stigma'' about banks tapping the loans.

       

Yellen, a former Fed governor and chairman of President Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers, added that she's ``open to constructive suggestions'' on enhancing liquidity.

       

Kohn said in New York on Nov. 28 that the Fed needs ``to give some thought'' to how ``liquidity facilities can remain effective when financial markets are under stress.''

       

The Fed could draw on its 1999 template, when it addressed potential money shortages during the 2000 computer-system changeover, Cecchetti said. The Fed sold options on almost $500 billion of repurchase agreements for standby financing. None were exercised.

       

Also, officials at the Fed's Board of Governors and regional banks prepared a paper in 2000 identifying ``alternative instruments'' for policy. One possibility is to lend to ``strong financial institutions'' at a rate equal to the federal funds rate, the document says.

 

Heute wurde vom US-Arbeitsministerium ein "sagenhafter" Produktivitätsanstieg für Q3/07 gemeldet. Laut dessen Aussage soll der wirtschaftliche Output zwischen Juli und September um 5,7 % gestiegen sein. Dies ist zwar Schnee von gestern, doch ich konnte es mir nicht verkneifen, diese Angabe mal mit den Daten der Fed, des Bureau of Census des Handelsministerium und der nationalen Einkaufsmanagerindizes von ISM abzugleichen. Nirgendwo findet sich auch nur ansatzweise eine Bestätigung für die Daten des Arbeitsministeriums!    

Bush Is Set to Unveil Relief Plan for Homeowners

By Damian Paletta

WASHINGTON -- President Bush is expected to unveil a broad plan Thursday afternoon aimed at helping homeowners struggling with their mortgages, two people familiar with the matter said Wednesday.

A senior administration official confirmed that Bush planned to speak about housing Thursday.

The plan has multiple parts, including a proposal to freeze interest rates on certain subprime loans for five years, fast track other borrowers toward refinanced loans and allow state and local governments to use more tax-exempt bond programs to fund refinancings.

 

S&P 500 Correlation to Oil Prices

It is a long standing belief that when oil prices are up the market is down, and vise versa.  Below we highlight the correlation of changes in the S&P 500 to changes in the price of oil, with oil prices plotted as well.  Over the long term, since 1988, the correlation coefficient was positive 44% of the time, negative 56%, and averaged -0.05.

 

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/

 

December 3rd Blogger Sentiment Poll

This week's poll remains bullish.

ebenda

 

den weihnachtsferien sind....... werden wir zurückkommen........denke ich.....  

Hä? Wer ist in den Ferien? Meinst du die Bären kommen zurück?

Mit Sicherheit ziemlich bald wenn es in diesem Tempo weitergeht. Bei ARIVA sprießen die Dax-9000-Threads ja nur so wie Pilze nach dem Regen. Desgleichen blasen die Bankanalysten (übrigens dieselben, die vor einer Woche noch Dax 7000 gesehen haben) zur Dax 8600-Rally.

Alles in allem eine gute Mischung für den nächsten Abwärtsimpuls insbesondere im krass überbewerteten Dax, der diesmal heftiger als letztes Mal wird. Denn dann werden die meisten Chartisten realisieren, dass wir uns in einer Baisse befinden. Zur Zeit kann man mit etwas Fantasie ja noch von "Konsolidierung" sprechen.

Allerdings muss man als Bär zunächst die Füße still halten bis die Kurse anfangen zu stagnieren. Geduld ist die Tugend der Stunde.  

und die chartisten haben im mo kaum aussagekraft  da alle chartlinien  durchbrochen wurden nach unten....in so einer zeit ist es für diese sehr schwer prognosen zu erstellen.....aber metro eine baisse, die sehe ich im jahre 2008 noch nicht....du siehst ich bin nur ein halber bär mit longposis im depot.....