Der USA Bären-Thread
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Ich rechne natürlich im gegebenen Umfeld NICHT mit einem Anstieg auf 14000. Ich denke eher es wäre ein Fehler, jetzt aus den langlaufenden Puts rauszugehn, die ich ja billig eingekauft habe. Dann würde ich mich zum einen in den Stress zu begeben später wieder billiger einkaufen zu müssen und andererseits kann ich ja --falls-- wir die 14000 wider erwarten doch anlaufen sollten immernoch nachkaufen.
Falls wir die 14000 nicht anlaufen und das hier nur eine Monatsendrally ist, wäre ich doppelt sauer.
Also bleibe ich drin und versuche zu relaxen... und mich weniger über die entgangenen Gewinne zu ärgern. Das habe ich bis dato genug gemacht und es wird noch mehr (gewinn nach unten) kommen. Egal, ob wir nochmal auf die 14000 rennen oder nicht.
...abwarten...und.. ...reeeelaaaaxx.....
- 14% auch nicht ohne, die zweite grosse techaktie, nach CSCO, die so abstürzt.
Und 2 tage später mutiert sie wieder zum liebling der analysten.
mfg
ath
zwar mit meinen Konservativeb Anlagen auch jetzt im Plus. Aber mit einer kleineren4 Stelligen summe short gegangen.Leider jetzt 30 % Minus GS Rolling Turbo 10er Hebel. Ich weis auch nicht was ich machen soll. Fundamental sieht es für mich nicht osig aus in den USA aber die mehrheit sieht es irgendwie anders. Entweder sind die Investoren gerade blind oder wir zu negativ. Irgendwie möchte ich meine short Position niht auflösen.
Mal schauen wie es weiter geht ..
Diesmal passiert das eben nicht.
Kurse machen die Nachrichten.
Keine Ahnung, vielleicht ist es aus irgendeinem Grund auch wichtig, das hohe Kurslevel bis Ende des Monats zu halten.
Am Montag ist der 03.12. bin mal gespannt ob die Märkte bis zum 11.12. durchhalten.
Und das wird spannender als man es jetzt denkt, denn es werden sicher wieder Zweifel an der Zinssenkung kommen.
Wenn die zinssenkung dann kommmt, naja, da müssen es schon 0,5% sein.
Die Fed hat zu Beginn einer Rezession immer 0,5% gegeben.
Wie gesagt, die ersten 5 Zinssenkungen der letzten Rezession waren um 0,5%.
Im Januar 2001 ist der Makrt in Zinssenkungserwartung um fast 1000 Punkte gestiegen.
Als sie dann kam, gings erstmal 2500Pkt abwärts.
@1997:
ich denke, wirklich vergleichbar ist das nicht. die USA haben jetzt eine ENDOGENE Krise. Die zeigt sich dort auch sogar schon. Man muss nur auf die Straße gehen.
1997, was war da ? Russlandkrise/Asienkrise?? 1998 war ja LTCM, auch das im vergleich zu heute firlefanz.
Nichts was den amerikanischen Verbraucher erstmal tangiert hätte.
Das kam dann später.
Als die TechBubble eingebrochen ist, hätten Verbraucher ein Problem. Das war endogen und der Markt ist dann mit Verzögerung auch runtergegangen.
Also mit neuen ATHs tue ich mich da ganz schwer. Aber man soll ja an der Börse niemals nie sagen....
vielleicht.
ps. AL schellte mich nicht. ich habe mir extra mühe gegeben. :-)
Il Sole 24 ore had an interesting article on some strange movements in the Euribor interest rate market, which was not picked up by other newspapers. The one-month rate shot up from 4.227 to 4.876% within a day, while the 3-months rates are 4.842%, and the annual rate 4.753%. With ECB policy rates at 4% this inverted money market yield curve appears to make no sense at all. Il Sole quoted technical factors as a possibly explanation as banks are rushing into the one-month market ahead of the closure of their 2007 accounts.
http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/SoleOnLine4/...029&DocRulesView=Libero
(A note from us: This suggests that problems in the banking are far from over, and almost certain to carry over into next year. This rush to meet the 2007 accounts deadline may also explain why the ECB has so been so keen to make more liquidity available)
Where is all the money?
The FT reports that US money market mutual funds have experienced an enormous inflow over the last few months. Money market funds received $13.38bn in new assets for the week ended November 27, according to iMoney.net, as investors were seeking a safe haven away from the mortgage market
Bond insurers jump on pact to freeze subprime mortgage rates
By Alistair Barr Last update: 11:00 a.m. EST Nov. 30, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bond insurers including Ambac Financial
and MBIA Inc. jumped on Friday on a report that the U.S. government is working on a plan to bail out millions of subprime borrowers.
The White House and the mortgage industry are near a pact that would freeze low rates on some subprime mortgages that were due to reset to much higher levels soon, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the negotiations. Under one scenario, the freeze could last up to seven years, the newspaper added. Rates on more than two million adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to jump during the next two years, the WSJ noted.
Such a plan is good news for bond insurers, which have insured complex securities known as collateralized debt obligations that are partly backed by subprime home loans. If some subprime mortgage rates don't reset higher, then fewer subprime mortgage borrowers may default. That means the mortgage assets supporting the CDOs insured by the bond insurers could become more valuable and may also be less likely to default
U.S. incomes fall, spending flat in October
Inflation eats away at modest gains in wages and salaries By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Last update: 10:46 a.m. EST Nov. 30, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Growth in U.S. consumer spending ground to a halt in October, while inflation eroded households' modest gains in income, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Nominal incomes rose just 0.2% last month despite strong job growth. But after accounting for a 0.3% rise in prices, October's real after-tax incomes fell 0.1%. Meanwhile, consumer spending increased 0.2% in nominal terms and was flat after adjusting for inflation. Spending was the weakest since March. Read the full government report. "The fourth quarter began on a weak note for consumers," wrote Nigel Gault, U.S. economist for Global Insight. "Consumers are struggling with high energy prices, falling home values, and a softening labor market."
Both incomes and spending were slightly weaker than expected by Wall Street.
The weak report will put further pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for a third time this year when policymakers sit down for their Dec. 11 meeting.
"Barring a boffo jobs report next Friday, the Fed will almost certainly cut rates on Dec. 11," wrote Sal Guatieri, an economist for BMO Capital Markets. Inflationary pressures were steady in October. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose, up 0.3% for a second straight month, and is now up 2.9% in the past year, marking the biggest year-over-year gain in 14 months. Core prices, which by definition exclude food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the second straight month. Core inflation was steady at 1.9% over the past year -- just within the Fed's unofficial comfort zone.
Fed officials are frankly much more worried about signs of weakening in the nation's economy than they are about inflation moving higher. In a speech Thursday, Fed chief Ben Bernanke warned that consumers face "headwinds" that could crimp their spending and slow the economy. See full story.
That's just what the October incomes and spending report revealed. Real per capital disposable incomes have risen 1.8% in the past year, the slowest growth since mid-2006.
Wages and salaries increased just 0.1% before inflation, despite healthy nonfarm payrolls growth of 166,000 and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings. The annualized rate of labor income growth has decelerated to 4.3%" from about 6% earlier, noted Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital.
Proprietors' income fell 0.2%, the third straight monthly decline. Income from assets rose 0.4%, the slowest growth this year. On the spending side, real outlays for services increased 0.1%, damped by relatively warm weather that meant relief for heating bills. Spending on nondurable goods fell 0.1%, while spending on durable goods dropped 0.6%. October's personal savings rate dipped to 0.5% from 0.7%, the government's data showed. In other reports released Friday, the Commerce Department said construction outlays fell 0.8% in October. See full story. Also, the Chicago purchasing managers' index improved to 52.9% in November after falling below the breakeven 50% line in October.
Nouriel Roubini | Nov 29, 2007
How sharply will the US stock market fall if the US experiences a recession? Given the recent flow of very negative macro news, the likelihood of a US hard landing has sharply increased; thus, it is important to assess the implication of such growth slowdown, hard landing or outright recession on the stock market.
It is true that in the last two days the US stock market has recovered sharply after a significant 10% downward correction in the period from early October until Monday. But the most sensible interpretation of the upward move on Tuesday and Wednesday this week (in spite of an onslaught of lousy macro news: consumer confidence, existing home sales, Beige Book, fall in durable goods orders, regional Fed manufacturing reports, initial claims for unemployment benefits, expectations that Q4 growth will be closer to 0% after the revised 4.9% in Q3, sharply rising credit losses, falling home prices and a worsening housing recession, etc.) is that this is the last leg of a sucker's rally (or dead cat's bounce) driven by wishful hopes that the Fed easing will prevent a recession.Certainly yesterday Wednesday equities rally was totally driven by Fed governor Kohn signaling the obvious, i.e. that given that the liquidity and credit crunch is now worse than at its August peak the Fed will cut rates in December, January and for as long as needed. In this game of chicken between the Fed and the bond market (with the latter signaling already for a while that the Fed will keep on cutting) the Fed was obviously the one to blink: this was no surprise to anyone who had noticed the meltdown in financial markets (a ugly liquidity and credit crunch) in the last few weeks. But for some reason the stock market on Wednesday discovered what analysts, the bond market and credit markets knew all along, i.e. that the Fed will have to keep on cutting rates as we are headed towards an ugly recession that is now inevitable regardless of how much the Fed cuts rates.
The behaviour of the stock market since last August can be best interpreted in terms of a Bernanke Put, i.e. the stock markets' hope that a Fed easing will prevent a hard landing of the economy. The August liquidity and credit shock severely tested the stock market downward; then you had a first sucker's rally on August 16th when the Fed announced the switch from a tightening bias towards an easing bias. A second phase of this sucker's rally occurred on September 18th when the Fed surprised the markets with a 50bps Fed Funds rate cut rather than the 25bps that the market expected. Then equities kept on rising, in spite of worsening economic and credit news, all the way until October 9th. Then, a drumbeat of weaker and weaker economic and credit news started to take a toll again on the stock market and triggered the beginning of the stock market correction (10% fall in stock prices) that continued until last Monday November 26th. A third phase of this sucker's rally occured after the Fed cut rates on October 31st triggering another stock market rally that turned out to be brief as a bombardment of awful credit news and weak economic data pushed down the market again.
The current leg of the sucker's rally was on (Wednesday )- today?-with stock prices sharply up - when Kohn effectively signaled to the markets that - in spite of all the Fed rhetoric to the contrary in the last few weeks - the Fed would ease rates in December and for as long as needed to deal with the liquidity and credit crunch and to avoid a recession. In each case in the last few months the stock market has rallied when the Fed has signaled a willingness to ease monetary policy to avoid a recession.
Call it a Bernanke Put if you believe that the Fed is trying to avoid a financial meltdwon; call it a need to bail out the economy rather than bailing out the markets if you believe - as I do - that the Fed actions are more driven by its concerns about the economy rather than an attempt to rescue investors; call it a moral hazard play if you believe that the Fed is trying to rescue investors and risks to create down the line another asset bubble. You can call it whatever you like but one thing is obvious: the Fed easing is perceived by the stock market as an action aimed to prevent a recession from occurring and stock prices rally - in spite of worsening macro news that are signaling recession ahead - because of the hope - that I will show is only wishful thinking - that the Fed will be able to avoid such a hard landing. Thus, what has been mostly driving up the stock market in the cycles since last summers is Fed policy expectations of easing.
The same pattern of market delusion and serial sucker's rallies occurred in 2001: the economy entered in a recession in March 2001 but the S&P 500 index rallied by a whopping 18% in April and May because the market and investors expected that the aggressive Fed easing - that had started in January - would prevent a 2001 recession (the famed and deluded hope of a second half of 2001 "growth rebound" that never occurred). It was only in June when it was obvious that the economy was sinking in spite of the Fed attempt to bail it out that the stock market started to sharply fall again; so then and again now the onset of a recession led to a typical sucker's rally fed by expectations of a Fed bailout of the economy; and the latest rally this week is occurring while the liquidity and credit crunch in the markets are as bad now or worse than in August and while macro news are worsening by the day.
Indeed the 2008 recession will repeat the Fed cycle and stock market cycle of the 2000-2001 recession: then the Fed tightened rates all the way to 6.5% in June 2000 and kept a tightening bias in July, September, November as it was worried more about inflation than about growth (that had been as strong as 5% in Q2 of 2000 but was sharply deceleraring in H2 of 2000 as the tech boom was going bust). The Fed was totally mistaken then about its assessment of the effects of the tech bust on the economy and kept on worrying about inflation while growth was plunging after Q2 of 2000; it was only at the mid December 2000 FOMC meeting, when the signals were that the holiday sales would be awful, that the Fed suddenly switched from its November FOMC tightening bias to an easing bias. And two weeks later when, after lousy holiday sales data, the NASDAQ fell 7% in its first 2001 trading day on January 3rd the Fed stared to aggressively cutting the Fed Funds rate with a an initial 50bps inter-meeting cut that day. Then, as now you had a sucker's rally following the Fed easings that intensified in April and May 2001 as the Fed kept on cutting rates.....
To take a longer and more analytical perspective notice that typically a sucker's rally always occurs at the beginning of an economic slowdown that leads to recession. The first reaction of markets to a flow bad economic news is usually a stock market rally based on the belief that a Fed pause (like the rally following the August 2006 Fed pause) and then possibly easing will rescue the economy. This rally always ends up being a sucker's rally as, over time, the perceived beneficial effects of a Fed ease meet the reality of the investors realizing that a recession is coming and that the effects of such a recession on profits and earnings are first order ....
But, as the continued flow of poor macro news increases the probability of a recession, the equity markets do and will - in due time – sharply fall when wave of news and macro developments hits hard a weakened and vulnerable economy; then you will see a serious bearish market in equities.....
sorry der Artikel ist wesentlich länger und enthält etliche Charts...einfach anklicken http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/229403
Banks may agree to plan to freeze ARM rates
By Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch Last update: 11:03 a.m. EST Nov. 30, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Federal authorities and major U.S. banks are close to an agreement under which interest rates on adjustable-rate loans will be frozen, a plan that would allow stretched homeowners to potentially avoid foreclosure, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
The newspaper said such an accord could reassure both investors and homeowners, helping to support home prices and provide liquidity for lenders. The plan could help ease criticism aimed at the Bush administration over its handling of the mortgage crisis, according to the report.
Parties to the talks include the Treasury Department, as well as Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Washington Mutual Inc. and Countrywide Financial Corp. the report said.
More details about the reported plan may surface Monday, when Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is scheduled to speak at a housing conference in Washington at 10:30 a.m. Eastern.
The report, citing people familiar with the talks, said that other individual lenders have agreed to follow any agreement reached by the group, dubbed the Hope Now Alliance.
While details still are being worked out, the heart of the plan is an agreement to extend so-called "teaser" introductory rates on loans to people who would default if rates rose.
The newspaper said the group hasn't determined which borrowers will qualify for the freeze and for how long the freeze would last. It reported that under one scenario the freeze could last up to seven years.
The parties are developing standard criteria that would determine eligibility. The criteria should be finalized by the end of year. According to the report, Treasury officials fear that unless creditors agree to relax mortgage terms, defaults will spike higher. About 6.6% of subprime mortgages were in foreclosure as of August, the most recent data available, according to First American LoanPerformance figures cited in the report.
Außerdem positiv für das "Rating" der diversen "Derivate" mit den offensichtlichen "Profiteuren". ;-)
Außerdem positiv für das "Rating" der diversen "Derivate" mit den offensichtlichen "Profiteuren". ;-)
was mich stört ist das wort VERSCHIEDENE,
wer trifft die auswahl ???
__________________________________________________
auf unserem Planeten gibt es nur Propheten
A closer look at the mortgage meltdown reveals Citigroup (C) and other big banks offered a type of money-back guarantee to buyers of nearly $100 billion of subprime mortgage-linked securities, according to a BusinessWeek analysis. Incredibly risky in retrospect, the refund policies were critical in the banks' push to keep a steady stream of money coming in during the peak years of the housing market from 2004 to 2006. But the myopic decision has been a central cause of the billions in losses that some banks are now reporting. Citi, which declined to comment, announced on Nov. 5 that it was on the hook for $25 billion worth of such deals.
The refunds are emblematic of the "What, me worry?" attitude that permeated the housing market. Everyone involved, from banks to borrowers to investors, convinced themselves they were taking little, if any, risk.
For the investors, at least, it was free money. In an effort to attract money-market funds--a new group of buyers for subprime-related securities--banks started putting guarantees on some products a few years ago. The deal appealed to the target audience, a conservative group seeking higher yields at low risk. After all, it was a no-lose situation. The funds didn't have to worry if the underlying mortgages started to look shaky since the banks agreed to pay back the investment plus interest, with few exceptions.
At the same time, the banks convinced themselves that it was a low-risk proposition. They figured the securities would at least maintain their value. And even if the investments did stumble modestly, the losses would be minimal and affect only the lowest tier of investments. So the banks never figured they'd have to make good on the refunds. "It sounds like there was so much hubris that they thought something bad couldn't happen," says Jack T. Ciesielski, publisher of The Analysts' Accounting Observer......
Here's how it happened. Money-market funds eagerly bought up the short-term debt associated with the subprime-linked securities known as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). The refund policies, technically known as "liquidity puts," were crucial. For instance, they allowed the credit rating agencies to bestow on the investments the same grade they gave the banks that backed them. That reassured the funds.
The CDO managers then used the borrowed money to fund their purchases; it was a cheap way to leverage the portfolio. Hedge funds salivated over that strategy, pouring billions more into CDOs. For example, two Bear Stearns (BSC) hedge funds now in bankruptcy relied on guarantees from Citi to raise $10 billion from money-market investors for three CDOs brand-named Klio, according to documents reviewed by BusinessWeek. It was all part of the massive machine that pumped more than $1 trillion into the housing market.
In the aftermath, analysts are increasingly worried about banks' hidden commitments on everything from credit-card debt to corporate loans. Warned Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst William F. Tanona in his Nov. 19 report on Citi, which rated the stock a sell: "Other off-balance-sheet items could be lurking."
With Matthew Goldstein in New York.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/...sinessweek+exclusives
http://www.cash.ch/news/story/448/150935/40/40
so long
navigator
Denn da wird es sicher hinter verschlossenen Türen ein wildes Gekabbele geben.
Wer muss welche Zinsen für welche Kredite einfrieren?
Doch eins darf man nicht aus dem Auge verlieren: es besteht die wahrscheinliche Chance, dass auch hier wieder wesentliche Teile der Verlusste verstaatlicht werden düften!
Soviel zu deinem Einwand Pursuit
Countrywide, GMAC, Litton and HomeEq - which collectively service more than one quarter of subprime loans to people with poor credit - agreed to maintain the initial, lower interest rate for some subprime borrowers whose rates are scheduled to jump significantly higher. To qualify, borrowers must occupy their homes, have made their payments on time and prove they cannot afford payments with the higher interest rate.
The voluntary program is designed to stem a huge wave of foreclosures. Half a million homeowners in the state have subprime mortgages that are scheduled to jump higher within the next two years after their initial introductory period elapses. Such loan resets, in combination with a slumping real estate market, already have led to a record number of foreclosures across California and the nation...It was unclear for how long the loan servicers would freeze the interest rates.
“The word that was chosen is it’s for a ’sustainable’ period of time,”......http://patrick.net/wp/?p=538
Im heutigen Börsenausblick von DJ Newswires ( http://www.ariva.de/Ausblick_t311005?pnr=3782896#jump3782896 ) findet sich folgender Aspekt:
"Dass es nicht nur Risiken, sondern möglicherweise auch Chancen in dem gegenwärtigen Umfeld gibt, wurde in der vergangenen Woche eindrucksvoll durch den Einstieg des Investmentvehikels von Abu Dhabi bei der Citigroup unterstrichen. Nur wenige Tage später stieg der zweitgrößte chinesische Versicherungskonzern bei Fortis ein".
Gleiches Bullenargument wird derzeit vielerorts angebracht, ich sehe das aber etwas kritischer:
Der aktuelle Einstieg der SWFs 'fremder Mächte' im großen Stil ist mE weniger Zeichen dafür, daß gerade gute Kaufkurse bestehen, sondern eher strategischer Natur, unter Ausnutzung der Zwangslage vieler Financials. Die Scheichs und Chinesen nutzen derzeit schlichtweg die akute Geldnot von Citi (und retrospektiv wohl auch von Blackstone, auf dem letzten Drücker auf's Parkett) aus, um große Pakete einzusammeln, und es ist ihnen wahrscheinlich ziemlich egal, ob sie ein paar Prozent mehr oder weniger zahlen. Derzeit schmeißt man ihnen die shares und convertibles nur so nach, während sich in 'normalen Börsenzeiten' wohl wieder eine breite öffentliche Diskussion entzündet hätte, ähnlich der Debatten um Dubai's geplanten Hafenkauf in USA oder der Japan-Angstdiskussion in Deutschland in den 80ern.
Also: politisch-strategische Kaufkurse nur für die Scheichs, nicht für den Normalanleger
(auch wenn's die Bullen nicht hören wollen ;o)
VG, Isc.
"Die Kreditkrise hat an der Wall Street ein weiteres prominentes Opfer gefordert. Nach Milliardenabschreibungen muss die Vize-Präsidentin der Investmentbank Morgan Stanley, Zoe Cruz, ihren Hut nehmen. Die 52-Jährige gilt als eine der am besten bezahlten und einflussreichsten Frauen in der Branche.
Cruz arbeitete seit 25 Jahren für die Investmentbank und war für einen Teil der Geschäftsbereiche verantwortlich, die Morgan Stanley mindestens 3,7 Mrd. Dollar (2,5 Mrd Euro) an Wertverlusten einbrachten. Berichten zufolge stand sie aber auch wegen ihres Führungsstils in der Kritik und galt als Anhängerin des vor zwei Jahren nach einem Machtkampf zurückgetretenen Bankchefs Philip Purcell.
Neben Cruz trat der weitere Vize-Präsident Bob Scully zurück. Als Nachfolger für beide ernannte die Bank laut einer Mitteilung vom Donnerstagabend die Manager Walid Chammah and James Gorman."
der vollständigkeit halber und ein weiteres steinchen fürs mosaik.