Leser des Bären-threads

25. Oktober 2008 Am Anfang stand die Hoffnung, dass der Sturm an ihm vorüberzieht. Aber dann packte den New Yorker Banker immer mehr die Angst, dass sein Job in Gefahr sein könnte - und damit die ganze Bilderbuchexistenz seiner Familie: das stattliche Einkommen, die schicke Eigentumswohnung, die Privatschule für die Tochter, das sorgenfreie Geldausgeben. Bald konnte er nachts nicht mehr schlafen. Angstzustände beherrschten sein Leben, und er kam zu dem Schluss, dass er Hilfe braucht.

Das war vor sechs Wochen, und seither ist er Patient bei Clay Cockrell, einem Psychotherapeuten in der Stadt. Cockrell versucht, den Banker aufzurichten, und seine Aufgabe ist nicht leicht. Denn in der Zwischenzeit hat der Mann seinen Arbeitsplatz tatsächlich verloren. „Er war bei einer der Banken, die es mittlerweile nicht mehr gibt“, sagt Cockrell vage, um nicht zu viel über die Identität seines Patienten preiszugeben.

Eine krisensichere Branche

An Fälle wie diesen hat sich der Therapeut mittlerweile gewöhnt: Mehr als 15 seiner Patienten sind aus der Finanzbranche. „Vier von ihnen sind gerade arbeitslos geworden, und einigen anderen droht das gleiche Schicksal“, sagt er.
An der seelischen Gesundheit wird nicht gespart

New York ist traditionell eine Goldgrube für Cockrells Branche. Ein gerne zitiertes Klischee lautet, dass jeder New Yorker einen Therapeuten hat. Das mag etwas übertrieben sein, aber der Gang zur Therapie ist für New Yorker ganz normal und mit keinerlei Stigma verbunden. Es ist ein völlig akzeptables Partythema, über die Ratschläge seines Psychotherapeuten zu sprechen. Nun zeigt sich: Das Geschäft ist nicht nur krisensicher, sondern erlebt in der Krise sogar einen wahren Boom.
Die Angst um den Job ist allgegenwärtig

Die Angst um den Job ist allgegenwärtig

Clay Cockrell ist kein Einzelfall: Auch viele seiner Kollegen in der Stadt berichten von einem wahren Ansturm auf ihre Praxis in den vergangenen Wochen. Therapeutin Nancy Newhouse erzählt, dass sie im Moment 55 Patienten in der Woche hat, zehn mehr als üblich. Ein Viertel ihrer Patienten kommt aus der Finanzbranche. Das seelische Wohlbefinden gehört offenbar nicht zu den Dingen, an denen die New Yorker sparen, obwohl Psychotherapie ins Geld gehen kann: Clay Cockrell verlangt 150 Dollar in der Stunde, bei Nancy Newhouse sind 140 Dollar fällig.

Finanzkrise zieht alle in den Sumpf

Angst vor der Zukunft treibt die Menschen in New York dazu, Beistand zu suchen. Das Bild ist düster, denn kaum eine andere Stadt dürfte so stark von der Finanzindustrie abhängen wie New York. Fast ein Viertel des Einkommens aller Bewohner entfällt auf Mitarbeiter in der Finanzbranche. Mit ihren gigantischen Gehältern und Boni waren die Banker immer der Motor der Stadt. Ob Immobilienmakler, Restaurantbesitzer oder Autohändler: Viele Branchen haben davon profitiert, dass Banker ihr Geld mit vollen Händen ausgegeben haben.

Bei manchen spielt Geld keine Rolle

Auch Byram Karasu konnte sich in seiner Praxis vor Anrufen von Bankern zuletzt kaum retten. Mehrere Dutzend New Yorker aus der Finanzindustrie wollten einen Termin bei dem 73 Jahre alten Therapeuten haben, und er hat fast alle abgewiesen, weil er ausgebucht ist. Karasu ist ein Sonderfall in der Branche, denn seine Klientel ist hochelitär: Er berechnet 1000 Dollar für eine 45-Minuten-Sitzung und hat sich auf die Reichsten und Mächtigsten aus Wirtschaft und Politik spezialisiert. Vier von fünf seiner Patienten stammen aus der Finanzbranche, aber in einer derart hohen Liga, dass die jüngsten Turbulenzen sie nicht aus der Bahn werfen: „Bei denen kommt es auf ein paar hundert Millionen Dollar hin oder her nicht an.“

„Meine Patienten haben mit ihrem Reichtum eine Schwelle erreicht, bei der Geld seine Bedeutung verliert. Sie kommen zu mir, weil sie nach Gelassenheit und einem Lebenssinn jenseits von Geld suchen.“ Entsprechend unaufgeregt zeigen sich Karasus Patienten bei den Gesprächen, wenn es um die Folgen der Finanzkrise für ihr Vermögen geht: „Heute morgen hatte ich jemanden von einem Hedge-Fonds, der innerhalb von ein paar Tagen eine Milliarde Dollar verloren hat. Das hat er nur ganz nebenbei erzählt und dabei gelächelt. Dann sind wir zu unseren normalen Gesprächsthemen übergegangen.“
http://www.faz.net/s/...495~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html?rss_wirtschaft  

So in conclusion “stag-deflation” (i.e. low growth or recession with falling inflation rates and possible deflationary pressures) is more likely than “stagflation” (low growth or recession with rising inflation rates) if a US hard landing materializes and leads – as likely – to a slowdown in global demand and growth.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254148/...on_plus_deflation  

 

als auf Gehalt verzichten? Da wundert sich Steinbrück. Aber nichts anderes
ist in USA geschehen.


Steinbrück bleibt auf Rettungspaket sitzen

In den Äußerungen des Bundesfinanzministers schwingt Verzweiflung mit: Manager, die ihr Institut aus Angst vor Gehaltskürzungen an die Wand führen, würden "öffentlich ans Brett genagelt". Der Grund für die drastischen Worte: Steinbrück wird seine Milliarden nicht los.
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Sollten Banken die Finanzspritzen des Bundes nicht akzeptieren und so "vorsätzlich einen Zusammenbruch in Kauf nehmen, wäre ein ziemliches Ding", sagte Steinbrück der "Bild am Sonntag". Angst vor möglichen Gehaltskürzungen darf in Steinbrücks Augen kein Handlungsmotiv für die Manager sein. "Das würde bedeuten, dass ein Banker sein Institut lieber untergehen ließe als dass er für die Laufzeit des Schirmes bis Ende 2009 für 'nur' noch 500.000 Euro pro Jahr arbeitet. Das sollte er dann mal der Öffentlichkeit erklären", sagte der Minister und fügte hinzu: "Das ist für mich absolut unvorstellbar. Dann würde ich langsam verzweifeln an der Verantwortungsbereitschaft dieser Berufsklasse." Er möchte den Banker sehen, der die Rettung seiner Bank an seinem eigenen Gehalt scheitern lasse, sagte Steinbrück. "Der würde doch öffentlich ans Brett genagelt." Allerdings warnte er auch vor Pauschalkritik. "Ich halte überhaupt nichts von Kollektivschelte."



http://www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/...ungspaket-sitzen/430612.html  

Am 1. November 2001 räumte die Executive Order 13233 Dick Cheney als erstem Vizepräsidenten in der Geschichte der Vereinigten Staaten die gleichen Privilegien ein wie dem Präsidenten. Executive Order 13292 vom 1. März 2003 erweiterte Cheneys Möglichkeiten um das Recht, Dokumente geheim halten oder vernichten zu dürfen. Cheney war ab sofort kein Vizepräsident mehr, sondern ein Co-Präsident, der außerhalb des Rechtssystems agiert.

Genialer Strippenzieher

Zu den ersten, die diese entfesselte Macht zu spüren bekamen, gehörten republikanische Anwälte von „Judicial Watch“. Die hatten Cheney verklagt, eine Teilnehmerliste der geheimen Energie-Konferenzen vom Frühjahr 2001 zu veröffentlichen. Damals entwarfen die Chefs führender Energie-Konzerne (sie hatten fünfzig Millionen Dollar für Bushs Kampagne gespendet) mit Cheney die Energiepolitik. Das Konzept: Verbrauch steigern, Produktion steigern, Gewinne steigern.

Inzwischen möchten viele Leute wissen, was passierte. Warum diskutierten die Teilnehmer über die Ölreserven des Irak? Doch ein Gericht teilte Cheneys Ansicht: „Der Vizepräsident ist eine Institution, die weder der Legislative noch der Exekutive angehört und deswegen befreit ist von den Regeln, denen beide unterliegen.“

Neben der Fähigkeit, keine Spuren zu hinterlassen, besitzt Cheney auch das zweite Talent, das ein kriminelles Genie ausmacht: Er erkennt instinktiv Schwächen und Ambitionen der Personen in seiner Umgebung. Kombiniert mit seiner enzyklopädischen Kenntnis der föderalen Bürokratie macht ihn das zu einem unaufhaltsamen Strippenzieher.

Der Fall „Klamath River“ zeigt, wie Cheney operiert: 2001 und 2002 litt der Bundesstaat Oregon unter Dürre. Farmer erlitten Verluste und der republikanische Abgeordnete des Bezirks, Robert Smith, fürchtete, bei den Wahlen zu unterliegen. Um die Farmer zu besänftigen, wollte er eine Talsperre öffnen und einen Stausee in den Klamath River leiten. Problem: Das warme Wasser würde die geschützte Süßwasser-Fauna zerstören.

Smith schrieb an Cheney, den er seit 1980 kannte – beide saßen im innenpolitischen Ausschuss des Kongresses. Cheney rief darauf bei Frau Wooldridge an, einer Angestellten im Innenministerium. Ihr gab er den Befehl, den Farmern Wasser zuzuführen. Doch wie? Der Vizepräsident schlug vor, sich von Wissenschaftlern Argumente liefern zu lassen. Diesen Job übernahm die „National Academy of Sciences“ und kam wunschgemäß zu der Erkenntnis, warmes Wasser stelle kein Problem dar für die Fische. Darauf legte der Biologe Michael Kelly vom „National Marine Fisheries Service“ einen gegensätzlichen Befund vor. Seine Vorgesetzte schrieben den Text um und er kündigte. Kurz darauf floss warmes Wasser in den Klamath. Drei Jahre später waren zwei bedrohte Lachsarten ausgestorben. Inzwischen musste Washington an Fischer, die ihre Existenz verloren, sechzig Millionen Dollar überweisen.

Das plausibelste Motiv ist Gier

Freunde und Feinde, die den Vizepräsidenten schon lange kennen, wundern sich, wann und warum sich seine Persönlichkeit wandelte. Bis Anfang der 90er-Jahre galt er als umgänglicher Politiker. Die Metamorphose zum Monster begann, als der junge Bush ihn 2000 zum Chef seiner Findungskommission für einen Vizepräsidenten machte. Erst zerstörte er mit Lügenkampagnen den Ruf der anderen Kandidaten, dann nominierte Cheney sich selbst.

Geboren 1941, war er ein mittelmäßiger Schüler und schlechter Student. Immerhin taugte er als Sportler und Trinkkumpan. Um den Kriegsdienst drückte Cheney sich, und als seine akademische Karriere nicht vorankam, ging er in die Politik. Protegiert von Donald Rumsfeld bekam er Jobs im Weißen Haus unter Nixon und Ford. Zehn Jahre lang diente er als Kongressabgeordneter und schließlich als Verteidigungsminister.

Was passierte dann? Lösten Herzoperationen und Medikamente eine Demenz aus? Beeinflusste ihn seine als ultrakonservativ bekannte Frau Lynne? Frustrierte ihn, dass seine Tochter lesbisch ist? Das plausibelste Motiv scheint wie bei anderen Verbrechern Gier zu sein – nach Macht und Geld. Man muss nur untersuchen, wer von Cheneys Machenschaften am heftigsten profitierte: der Industriedienstleister Halliburton, bei dem Cheney zwischen 1995 und 2000 Vorstandsvorsitzender war.

Cheneys Sonderwünsche

Vom Fertigmenü bis zur Bohrinsel liefert die Firma alles, was man braucht, um Öl zu fördern oder Kriege zu führen. Ein Konzern, gegen den so viele Verfahren laufen – von Betrug in Milliardenhöhe bis zur Massenvergewaltigung weiblicher Mitarbeiter, dass er einen Weltrekord hält: Kein Unternehmen gibt mehr Geld aus für Anwälte als Halliburton. Unter Cheney umging die Firma die Embargos gegen Iran und Irak, steigerte den Gewinn um ein Vielfaches und reduzierte die Steuern dank Offshore-Töchtern auf null. In dieser Zeit verdiente der CEO 44 Millionen Dollar Gehalt, doch als wertvoller sollten sich die Aktienoptionen erweisen. Seit dem Beginn der Invasion des Irak erhielt Halliburton vom Pentagon Aufträge über mindestens 24 Milliarden Dollar. Cheneys Vermögen wuchs in der Zwischenzeit auf über hundert Millionen – dank seiner Halliburton-Anteile und Aktien anderer Öl- und Rüstungskonzerne.




http://www.faz.net/s/...829EF19B421E297400~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html  

ist doch klar, daß Bankmanager lieber Ihre Millionen verdienen, als mit 500.000 € abgespeist zu werden.

Das ist ja schon fast ein Harz IV- Lohn, hehehehe.....

Die Vergabe der Staatsgelder will die Bundesregierung unter strenge Auflagen stellen, berichtet das Blatt weiter. Konkret sähen die Regierungspläne vor, die staatlichen Eigenkapitalhilfen nur dann zu gewähren, wenn sich die Banken verpflichten, ihre Geschäftsmodelle, Bonussysteme und Abfindungsregeln zu reformieren

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/  

 

früher zum einschlafen....jetzt zum munterbleiben
factors affecting reserve balances
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/  

interest rates
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Korea monetary policy board called an unscheduled meeting for today, possibly to discuss an interest rate cut after the stock market lost a fifth if its value last week.

``There will be an interim monetary policy board meeting'' today at 8 a.m., the Seoul-based central bank said via a text message sent to the media yesterday, without providing further information.

``I'm almost certain they'll cut and it's highly likely to be 50 basis points,'' said Lim Jiwon, economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Seoul. ``A rate cut may help boost the stock market a bit, but all in all, the authorities need to restore investor confidence and for this, a concerted effort and more preemptive steps are needed.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601080&sid=a5Utl43_YV5E&refer=news  

In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, the government said it would deposit $2.7 billion into the Saudi Credit Bank to help lower-income citizens deal with financial difficulties, the country's Al-Ektisadiya newspaper reported.

Kuwait's decision to stop trading in shares of Gulf Bank sent a shock wave through the country's bourse, which closed down almost 3.5 percent and brought its year-to-date losses to over 19 percent.

"The halting of Gulf Bank shares spread panic in the bourse today, because the government has been saying banks are safe from (global financial crisis) losses," said investor Ahmed al-Fadhli in a telephone interview.

Over the past few weeks, Kuwaiti investors have voiced clear concerns about the market. One stockbroker unsuccessfully sued to temporarily close the bourse while other traders last week stormed out of the exchange, demanding the government intervene to halt their near-daily losses.

Investor al-Fadhli said about 40 brokers walked Sunday from the exchange to the nearby seaside Seif Palace, demanding to see the prime minister, Sheik Nasser Al Mohammed Al Sabah, to ask for more government intervention.

The government believes oil revenues should be used for development instead of "popular" demands that do not take into consideration that oil prices might fall sharply, dragging down state revenues in tow.

http://www.kiplinger.com/apnews/XmlStoryResult.php?storyid=724993
 

BANGKOK -- Asia, the world's last redoubt of fast economic growth, may be closer to a downturn than people think.

For the U.S. and other developed countries, investors typically define a recession as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. For Asia, though, a sharp downturn occurs when region-wide annual growth slows to between 5% and 6%. For China, which has had multiple years of double-digit growth, the rate at which a downturn could effectively begin is likely even higher, possibly up to 8%.
n part, that is because Asian nations' populations are often younger than those in the U.S. and Europe, and in many countries the labor force is growing more quickly, as millions of rural residents move to cities in search of opportunity. As a result, most Asian economies, excluding Japan, need to expand more rapidly than other parts of the world -- often at annual rates of 5% or more -- so they can absorb all those new workers. If they don't, unemployment will climb and poverty levels will follow.

The heavy reliance on exports that has driven Asia's powerful growth is turning now into its worst enemy. Many companies in Asia have based investment decisions on the assumption that recent stellar growth rates will continue. If they don't, profits will disappoint, new capacity won't be needed and costs will have to be cut -- just as in an American recession. As consumer spending in the U.S. and Europe evaporates, Asian manufacturing titans that thrive on sales to the rest of the world are starting to feel the pain and are scaling down capital spending.

Many economists believe Asia is already teetering on the brink of a downturn. At investment bank UBS, forecasters are now predicting gross domestic product growth of around 6% in Asia excluding Japan next year. Other economists, including forecasters at Standard Chartered Bank, are pegging China's growth below 8% in 2009, which also could put it in notable pullback territory.
[Chart]

Such rates might look "pretty good" to the U.S., but they're potentially trouble for Asia, says Duncan Wooldridge, chief Asia economist for UBS. The slowdown "is going to be much more palpable" in Asia next year, he says, in large part because of weaker demand for Asian export goods in other parts of the world.

On the whole, the region -- site of an economic meltdown a decade ago -- today has limited exposure to the debt causing havoc in the financial systems of the U.S. and Europe. But in the past 10 years, Asia has doubled down with its bet on exports as an economic engine -- at the expense of developing a domestic consumer market that many economists believe will ensure more sustainable growth.

Exports accounted for 47% of gross domestic product in Asia, excluding Japan, in 2007. That is a jump of 11 percentage points from the comparable figure in 1998, during the last economic crisis in the region, notes Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's Asia chairman. Asia "may not be levered in the strict sense of reliance on global credit," says Mr. Roach. "But it's certainly levered to the global economy."

A slowdown in Asia wouldn't necessarily feel the same as one in the West. Asian consumers tend to save far more than Americans during boom times and thus might not find themselves as deeply stretched, financially, if their incomes fall.

Many Asian companies -- which are often state-run, family-owned or heavily unionized, especially in India -- are less inclined to lay off workers in hard times than those in the U.S., where many businesses slash staff at the earliest sign of trouble. In India, for instance, ailing carrier Jet Airways recently rescinded 1,900 layoffs after pressure from local political officials.

That hardly means a slowdown wouldn't hurt. Many Asian governments offer less in the way of social safety nets than do those in the West, and with poverty levels already comparatively high, the risk of social unrest is probably greater in Asia than in more developed regions.

In Thailand, many consumers already think they're in a recession, despite growth that's expected to come in at about 4.5% this year. Consumer confidence has fallen and layoffs are starting to appear in selected industries, including tourism. A local newspaper offered suggestions on how readers could survive a slowdown, including advising people to cook their own meals and cut back on international travel. Another Thai paper included a special section devoted to layoffs.

In China, scores of factories have already closed amid weak orders from the U.S. and Europe, resulting in thousands of lost jobs. So far, most of those workers appear to be getting new jobs elsewhere, but that could change rapidly. Chinese growth slowed to 9% in the most recent quarter compared with a year earlier, from a recent peak of 11.9% in 2007. Standard Chartered Bank's forecast calls for growth of 7.9% next year.

Of course, Asia remains better off than many other parts of the world, and in some ways its economies still look quite strong. Consumer spending -- especially on low-cost items like noodles -- remains robust. Falling oil prices could help spur spending, as consumers save money on their fuel bills.

"If you look at a lot of these Asian economies, they're still very solid domestically," says Sherman Chan, an economist at Moody's Economy.com in Sydney. After several boom years, some Asian nations including China have more firepower to boost public spending to keep growth rolling. Despite its latest problems, "China still has the greatest potential" among major economies, she says, and therefore will likely continue to attract lots of investment.

The region also remains far better off than in the dark days of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, when several Asian economies collapsed amid a wave of defaults and falling currencies.
—Peter Stein and Carlos Tejada in Hong Kong and Wilawan Watcharasakwet in Bangkok contributed to this article.

Write to Patrick Barta at patrick.barta@wsj.com
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122505465551669955.html  

Earlier on Monday the Group of Seven (G7) industrialised nations issued a statement warning that the strength of the yen was a threat to economic stability, which was taken as a threat of co-ordinated action to reduce the value of the currency.

While the yen briefly weakened, it soon climbed back towards Friday's 13-year high against the dollar.

The yen has been strengthening as a result of the end of the carry trade, in which traders borrowed the Japanese currency and used it to buy currencies with higher interest rates.

As the difference between Japanese rates and those elsewhere in the world has fallen, traders have been unwinding the carry trade, which means they have been using other currencies to buy yen, which has boosted the Japanese currency.

In other currency news, the Australian government intervened for a second time to support its currency, which was trading at a 5-year low against the US dollar. One US dollar was worth 0.6122 Australian dollars.

The Australian central bank last intervened more than a year ago and before that had not done so since 2001.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7692559.stm  

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/...s-bad-for-everyone-13925.aspx

"I believe that a strong dollar is in our nation's interest," claimed Henry Paulson in his first speech as US Treasury secretary, made at Columbia University two years ago. It's a phrase he then parroted time and again, repeating the formula first dreamt up by Robert Rubin 13 years earlier.

"There are more tears shed over answered prayers than over unanswered prayers..."
- Teresa of Ávila, patron saint of headache sufferers.

So Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke and George W.Bush got their wish. The US dollar is now the world's strongest currency.

Aw...shoot!

"I believe that a strong dollar is in our nation's interest," claimed Henry Paulson in his first speech as US Treasury secretary, made at Columbia University two years ago. It's a phrase he then parroted time and again, repeating the formula first dreamt up by Robert Rubin 13 years earlier.

The plan then (and ever since) was to fob off foreign complainers back when Bill Clinton faced a federal deficit worth nearly 5% of the US economy. Now Paulson's banking bail-out charade will sit atop a government deficit already equal to more than 7% of this year's GDP.

Small wonder, then, that the "strong dollar" has vanished from official speeches and comment. But the damned thing keeps turning up everywhere else.

Paulson repeated Bob Rubin's phrase so often from late 2006 to mid-July this year, even Ben Bernanke got on the train in May 2008. Come June, and the Fed chairman raised the rhetoric again, dedicating himself to "ensuring that the dollar remains a strong and stable currency."

Real US interest rates, however – which deduct consumer price inflation from the Fed's own target rate – were then sinking to pay savers their worst negative return since 1980.

Hell, satire this sharp even saw George W.Bush get with the programme, telling Fox News last November that "if people would look at the strength of our economy, they'd realise why... you know...I believe that the dollar will be stronger."

The president said it again – no word of a lie! – at a White House press conference in February 2008 ("We believe in a strong dollar policy") and in March, he said it to CNBC too, adding that "Our policy has not changed. We're for a strong dollar."

Whether or not the Three Stooges ever meant it, their joke of a currency is now out-stronging the yen – itself nearly 30% stronger since summer 2008, thanks to $6 trillion in wealth all trying to get home at once, squeezing its way through the forex markets as Japanese savers panic out of their euros, pounds, reals and zlotys.

Versus the Hungarian forint – formerly a great destination for Japanese cash fleeing 0% interest at home – the Yen has gained nearly one-half in the last 12 weeks alone. It's added 5% since Wednesday, despite an emergency rate-hike by the Magyar Nemzeti central bank.

Why? Because not even a 300-basis point hike to 11.5% can stop hot money escaping when it runs for the exits. For that, you need exchange controls and guns.

Hiking UK interest rates from 10% to 15% inside one day failed to stop the British pound collapsing in Sept. 1992.

Two years later, not even a yield of 40% on Mexican bonds could attract foreign cash into D.F.'s coffers.

In 1997 the Korean won lost half its forex value despite 30% interest rates.

During 1932, the Federal Reserve hiked US interest rates to stem the outflow of gold reserves, but US citizens responded by simply hoarding gold for themselves for fear of a devalued dollar. (They got it, too – but not before F.D.R. banned private gold ownership in 1934.)

Back to the future, and Hungary's domestic economy stands fit to collapse thanks to this new run on hot money. "Foreign currency loans made up 62% of all household debt at the end of the second quarter," reports Bloomberg, "up from 33% three years earlier."

Now all that money wants out – forcing the IMF in – as Budapest's bubble goes bang. The International Monetary Fund is awful busy already, struggling to keep Iceland, Serbia, Ukraine, Pakistan and Belarus afloat as today's strong yen (and the yet-stronger dollar) reverse the last five years and more of easy loans, easy terms.

Of course, the IMF – that lender of last resort to lenders of last resort – exists to avoid repeating the mass currency crises of the Great Depression. So just like Ben Bernanke's four-decade study of the US Depression, the world's about to find out if the central banks' central bank is up to the task.

The dollar's put on 30% vs. the Mexican peso since the summer; it's gained one-third from its floor versus even sensible things like the Canadian loonie and Aussie dollar. Together with the continued shutdown in credit, the pace and breadth of this bounce is quite literally destroying the global economy. Industrial production is collapsing in the US, Germany and Japan; the failure rate for small UK businesses has risen seven times over since summer '07. And the strong dollar is also destroying everyone's pension as well, just as surely as the banking collapse devoured mom 'n' pop savers during the '30s depression.

Germany's stock-holders are down 44% so far in 2008. The Bovespa in Sao Paolo has been cut in half since mid-June. Moscow's stock market plunged by one-fifth on 6 October. The Nikkei index in Tokyo stocks has dropped one-third of its value in the last month alone.

State-side, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. has watched more than $3 billion of its $63bn portfolio evaporate as Wall Street sinks. All told, America's 500 top stocks have cost investors 31% of their money since the dollar turned higher in mid-July.

Yet "a strong dollar is in our nation's interests. It is in the interests of the global economy," claimed George W.Bush as climbed aboard Air Force One this June. He was just as wrong there as he was on Saddam's deadly arsenal, and with similarly disastrous results. But he then repeated this line to a journalist as he flew to Slovenia for a US-European summit.

"We want the dollar to strengthen. Relative evaluations of economies will lead to that dollar strengthening."

Read that again, and ask – as nobody did when the joke was still funny – How could a strong dollar possibly be in the best interests of the US or global economies if it comes thanks to anything other than a reduction in America's trade and budget deficits? What good can a strong dollar do if it appears instead thanks to a run on over-geared investment worldwide?

The Decider himself knew this as early as Nov. 2004 – back when the Euro was worth only a little less than it is today. "The best way to affect those who watch the dollar's value is to make a commitment to deal with our short-term and long-term deficits," the president said to reporters attending the 21-nation Apec conference in Chile that year.

And what a commitment he's made since then!  

Wunsch war, die Kreditvergabe durch Banken wieder anzukurbeln. Was ist daraus bisher geworden?
Bisher leider noch nicht viel. Erste Gelder sind an PNC Financial geflossen. Die haben das Geld für die Aquisition von National City verwendet. Heute wird mit Capital One und Sun Trust verhandelt. Bei Capital One vermutet man, daß es zu einer Aquisition in allernächster Zeit kommt.  Bei Sun Trust weiß man noch nichts.
Dem zugedachten Zweck ist also noch kein müder $  zugeflossen!  

The G7 statement issued via the US Treasury makes it clear that the threat of multilateral intervention in the currency markets is a real one.
   Headlines

G7: The official FX statement notes that the group "reaffirms its shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system" but adds it "is concerned over the recent excessive volatility in the JPY and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability". Concluding, the group said, "We continue to monitor markets closely and co-operate as appropriate".

UK: The BBC cites British Prime Minister Gordon Brown as saying that: “Now inflation is actually coming down over the next few months and that will mean that it gives scope to all the monetary authorities, including the Bank of England, round the world to make a decision about interest rates."
https://gm.bankofny.com/Research/MorningUpdate/...tentManagerID=7756#  

As a percentage of GDP, European and UK banks are about five times more exposed to EM (emerging markets) than the US and Japanese banks.  Pressures on EM economies, therefore, could have a particularly negative ‘boomerang’ effect on European banks. (Our European banks team is also very bearish on European banks with heavy EM/CEE exposure.)  For currencies, if EM becomes the second epicentre of the global financial crisis, as we believe it might, EUR seems more at risk than USD or JPY.

 Austria, Switzerland, Spain and Sweden have the largest exposure to EM.   By country, total loans to EM by Austrian banks amount to 85% of GDP – with EE accounting for 80% of Austrian GDP.  Switzerland ranks second on this measure, with bank lending to EM amounting to 50% of Swiss GDP.  Number three is Sweden at 25%.
European banks are by far the most exposed to EE.   Of the US$1.6 trillion in total foreign bank borrowing by EE economies, European banks account for US$1.5 trillion – equivalent to 9% of European GDP.  Austrian lending to EE totals US$297 billion, even higher than Germany, Italy or France.  In fact, Austrian banks are the biggest debt holders of Hungary and Ukraine – the two economies likely to seek assistance from the IMF. (We suspect that Greek banks’ exposure to EE should be substantial in relation to the country’s GDP. However, Greek data are not separately available from the BIS.)

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/...Mon.html#anchor7084  

Oct 6: For the first time ever in the modern era, we have a situation where in 2007-2008, S&P 500 operating earnings have collapsed nearly 30% and yet real GDP has managed to grow at a positive albeit below-average 2% pace. This is because 70% of the decline in corporate profits over the past year has reflected the unwinding of all the financial leverage; only 30%has been due to the softer pace of economic activity and margin compression  

ComScore found that during the second quarter of this year, online credit card applications from good credit risks dropped 19 percent, compared to the same period last year.

However, during the same period, online credit card applications from bad credit risks -- the subprime customers -- rose 7 percent.

Note that this data was from the second quarter -- April, May and June -- even before the crisis really escalated.

Take a look at comScore's data dating back to the second quarter of 2007, showing the combined online credit card applications from people with good and bad credit. You'll see that everyone was drunk on credit:

Q2 2007: up 28 percent (compared to Q2 2006)
Q3 2007: up 10 percent
Q4 2007: up 11 percent
Q1 2008: up 8 percent
Q2 2008: down 6 percent
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/?hpid=topnews  

http://aric.adb.org/  

wie lange wird das bei uns noch dauern?

Angst vor Obama fördert Waffenverkauf
In der US-Wirtschaftskrise erlebt eine Branche einen Boom: Der Absatz von Schusswaffen ist stark angestiegen. Gründe sind die Angst vor Kriminalität und vor einem Wahlsieg der Demokraten.
Nicht erst seit Michael Moores Film «Bowling for Columbine» weiss man, dass Amerika eine waffenverrückte Nation ist. Derzeit geht es den Verkäufern von Schiesseisen und ähnlichem Gerät wieder einmal besonders gut. In diesem Jahr hat der Absatz von Feuerwaffen und Munition um acht bis zehn Prozent zugenommen, berichtete die «Washington Post» mit Bezug auf statistische Daten. «Es läuft besser als im letzten Jahr», bestätigte Paul Pluff, ein Sprecher der Waffenschmiede Smith & Wesson. Und nannte auch gleich einen der Gründe: «Obama ist nicht besonders waffenfreundlich.»

Die Angst vor einem Wahlsieg des Senators aus Illinois sowie der Demokraten bei den Kongresswahlen sei eine wesentliche Triebfeder für Waffenfreaks, «sich einzudecken, so lange sie noch können», so Paul Pluff. Zahlreiche Interviews der «Washington Post» mit Waffenhändlern und -käufern in Virginia und Maryland ergaben, dass bei einem Sieg der Demokraten eine Verschärfung der Waffengesetze befürchtet wird.

Zwar hat sich Barack Obama für das Recht auf den Besitz von Schusswaffen ausgesprochen. Gleichzeitig aber unterstützt er «vernünftige Sicherheitsmassnahmen». Viele Waffenfans sind überzeugt, dass Obama Gewehre und Pistolen verbieten will. Weshalb sie noch rechtzeitig für Nachschub sorgen wollen, nicht zuletzt bei der Munition. Denn die Meinung ist verbreitet, dass die Demokraten die Steuern darauf massiv erhöhen werden. «Eine Patrone wird ein Luxusartikel sein», so ein Waffenkäufer.

Mehr Waffen wegen Wirtschaftskrise

Der zweite Hauptgrund für den Waffenboom ist gemäss «Washington Post» die Schwäche der amerikanischen Wirtschaft. Sie verstärke die Furcht von Kriminalität und Unruhen. «Wirtschaftlich harte Zeiten fördern stets den Absatz von Feuerwaffen», sagte James Purtilo, Herausgeber eines Branchen-Newsletters. Die Statistiken stützen diesen Befund: Demnach begann der starke Anstieg im Jahr 2006, als die Immobilien-Blase in Teilen des Landes zu platzen begann, und setzte sich im letzten Jahr fort.

Branchenexperten und Behördenvertreter verwiesen auf Beispiele, die zu einem Anstieg der Waffenkäufe führten. Als Präsident Bill Clinton 1994 ein Verbot von halbautomatischen Gewehren vorantrieb, nahm der Absatz dieser Waffen stark zu. Nach dem Massaker an der Hochschule Virginia Tech im letzten Jahr wurden deutlich mehr Handfeuerwaffen verkauft, unter anderem aus Angst vor schärferen Gesetzen. Auch die Rassenunruhen 1992 in Los Angeles oder der Zusammenbruch der öffentlichen Ordnung nach Hurrikan «Katrina» 2005 in New Orleans förderten die Waffenverkäufe.
http://www.20min.ch/print/story/27722547  

verlieren

PAUL B. FARRELL
Wall Street's 'Disaster Capitalism for Dummies'
14 reasons Main Street loses big while Wall Street sabotages democracy
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:10 p.m. EDT Oct. 20, 2008
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Yes, we're dummies. You. Me. All 300 million of us. Clueless. We should be ashamed. We're obsessed about the slogans and rituals of "democracy," distracted by the campaign, polls, debates, rhetoric, half-truths and outright lies. McCain? Obama? Sorry to pop your bubble folks, but it no longer matters who's president.
Why? The real "game changer" already happened. Democracy has been replaced by Wall Street's new "disaster capitalism." That's the big game-changer historians will remember about 2008, masterminded by Wall Street's ultimate "Trojan Horse," Hank Paulson. Imagine: Greed, arrogance and incompetence create a massive bubble, cost trillions, and still Wall Street comes out smelling like roses, richer and more powerful!

Yes, we're idiots: While distracted by the "illusion of democracy" in the endless campaign, Congress surrendered the powers we entrusted to it with very little fight. Congress simply handed over voting power and the keys to trillions in the Treasury to Wall Street's new "Disaster Capitalists" who now control "democracy."
Why did this happen? We're in denial, clueless wimps, that's why. We let it happen. In one generation America has been transformed from a democracy into a strange new form of government, "Disaster Capitalism." Here's how it happened:

   *
     Three decades of influence peddling in Washington has built an army of 42,000 special-interest lobbyists representing corporations and the wealthy. Today these lobbyists manipulate America's 537 elected officials with massive campaign contributions that fund candidates who vote their agenda.
   *
     This historic buildup accelerated under Reaganomics and went into hyperspeed under Bushonomics, both totally committed to a new disaster capitalism run privately by Wall Street and Corporate America. No-bid contracts in wars and hurricanes. A housing-credit bubble -- while secretly planning for a meltdown.
   *
     Finally, the coup de grace: Along came the housing-credit crisis, as planned. Press and public saw a negative, a crisis. Disaster capitalists saw a huge opportunity. Yes, opportunity for big bucks and control of America. Millions of homeowners and marginal banks suffered huge losses. Taxpayers stuck with trillions in debt. But giant banks emerge intact, stronger, with virtual control over government and the power to use taxpayers' funds. They're laughing at us idiots!

Amazing isn't it, Wall Street's Disaster Capitalists screwed up, likely planned or let happen this meltdown and recession. Yet America's clueless taxpayers just reward them by giving the screw-ups massive bailouts, control over more than $2 trillion of tax money, and the power to clean up the mess they made. Oh yes, we are dummies!
This end game was planned for years in secret war rooms on Wall Street, in Corporate America, in Washington and the Forbes 400. Democracy is too cumbersome. It had to be marginalized for Disaster Capitalism to take over. Reagan, Bush and Paulson were Wall Street's "Trojan Horses."
Naomi Klein summarizes the game in "Shock Doctrine: the Rise of Disaster Capitalism." This "new economy" generates enormous profits feeding off other peoples' misery: Wars, terror attacks, natural catastrophes, poverty, trade sanctions, subprime housing meltdowns and all kinds of economic, financial and political disasters. Natural (Katrina) or manmade (Iraq), either way "disaster capitalism" creates fortunes.
So you, me and the other 300 million better get out of denial. America is no longer a democracy. Voting is irrelevant. Best case scenario: We're a plutocracy, a government ruled by the wealthy, the richest 1%, the Forbes 400, the influential wealthy elite, while the other 99% are their "servants." Meanwhile, the inflation-adjusted income of wage-earners has declined for three decades.
Worst case scenario: America's no democracy and as a result of the meltdown and the surrender of our power to Wall Street's new Disaster Capitalism we are morphing into what one WWII dictator called "corporatism," a "merger of state and corporate power," kind of like what's going on now with Goldman Sachs' ex-boss as de facto president.

Wolves in sheep's clothing
Yes, a strong charge. But like a lot of our readers, I don't like what's happening to America. I'm a patriot. I volunteered for the Marines. Served four years. Volunteered for Korea. I don't like how our freedoms, rights and value system are being subverted in the name of greed, arrogance, self-righteous intolerance and other false gods.

We know for the last eight years disaster capitalists ignored obvious warnings of a coming meltdown. They apparently planned it. They road the bull, got very rich. Now they have the ultimate disaster capitalist weapons, trillions in tax money, virtual control of government.

That's why I fear we're on the edge of a dangerous line between Wall Street's version of disaster capitalism and a toxic "merger of state and corporate power." The wolf is in sheep's clothing. Wall Street pretends we're a democracy. Yet America more closely resembles the kind of "corporatism" that Laurence W. Britt wrote about five years ago in Free Inquiry magazine.

We adapted his historical analysis of 14 key traits for today's discussion. Notice how they have a huge impact your investments and retirement:


1. Wall Street rich get first priority
Think "bailout." Wall Street's greedy con game spins out of control globally. Millions of homeowners misled, lose. Who gets hundreds of billions first? Wall Street's con men.
2. National security obsession
Think of the expansion of executive powers in the name of national security: Preemptive wars, wiretapping private citizens, Gitmo, torture; driven by a dark wealthy neocon elite.
3. Superpower with massive military
Think of our $3 trillion Iraq/Afghan War. Disaster capitalists love the thrill of military power. We outspend all nations, over half the federal budget to strut before the world.
4. Extreme nationalism
Signs are everywhere: Flags, lapel pins, "support the troops" slogans, all to get huge military budgets passed. Challenge them and you're un-American and unpatriotic.
5. Rally the masses by scapegoating enemies
Think "axis of evil," mushroom clouds, "Islamofascists," more terrorist attacks on the homeland. Propaganda creates "enemies" in the public's mind and distracts from real issues.
6. Corruption and cronyism
Think earmarks, no-bid defense contracts, paid mercenaries outnumbering military in Iraq, superlobbyist Jack Abramoff, biofuels, bridge to nowhere, millions donated to campaigns.
7. Obsession with crime
Think of prison-building as just another investment opportunity, rather than focusing on reforming our criminal justice system. Stoke irrational fear of criminals and extremists.
8. Labor and low wages
Think corporate earnings versus the wages paid to workers. No "trickling down," leaves more for tricklers: Rich insiders, stockholders. Wages dropping as CEO salaries skyrocket.
9. Contempt for human rights
Think of abuses of habeas corpus, loss of right to trial, bogus charges, plus "demonizing" the victims, all in the name of national defense and homeland security.
10. Mass media manipulation
Think of leaking false information, Joseph Wilson, Valerie Plame, Scooter Libby, Colin Powell's United Nation's testimony, Condoleezza Rice's mushroom clouds, WMDs, all to suppress the truth.
11. Obsession with sexism
Think of paternalism, antigays, antiabortion, subordinate women -- then codify the system as the law of the land reinforcing a male-dominated society, punish violators.
12. Disdain for intellectuals
Think of conservative intellectuals Francis Fukuyama and Bill Buckley. Contrast them to Sarah Palin and Joe Sixpack conservatism, Bush's funding cuts for arts and science education.
13. Religion in government
Think of all the faith-based programs versus antiscience in drug approvals, creationism vs. evolution, Ten Commandments enshrined in public buildings, public money to churches.
14. Fraudulent elections
Think of police and prosecutorial intimidation and threats to voters, challenging minority voters, ballots disappearing, party election officials committing outright fraud.
Yes, officially America is still a democracy. We have enough signs and rituals to support that illusion. But the truth is America has become a plutocracy run by and for the wealthy. And since Wall Street's Disaster Capitalism coup de grace, we are rapidly morphing into a dangerous new government.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/...nt=true&dist=printMidSection  

Wie von jeffs über die Verlautbarung der G7 dargestellt, haben es aber die anderen Mitglieder abgelehnt, gegen den steigenden Yen zu intervenieren.  Prompt ist heute die japan. Börse nochmals so richtig abgerutscht. Panik macht sich bei den japan. Produzenten breit, weil sie seit Jahresanfang ca. 30 % weniger im Export nach Amerika erlösen.  Die Japaner glauben nicht, daß ihre Notenbank es alleine schaffen wird.  

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/video/2008/oct/14/useconomy