Daqo New Energy die neue China-(Top)Solaraktie
Revenues: $40m
Shipments: 825mt polysilicon, 16MW wafer, 8MW module, 6MW oem
Asps: $30/kg polysilicon, $0.35/watt wafer, $0.95/watt module, $0.35/watt oem
Unit Cost: $30/kg polysilicon, $0.42/watt wafer, 1.00/watt module, $0.35/watt oem
COGS: $24.8m + $6.7m + $8m + $2m = $41.5m
Gross Loss: -$1.5m
Gross Margin: -$1.5m / $40m = -3.8%
Operating Expenses: $4.5m
Net Interest Expense: $2m
Subsidy Income: $1.5m
Tax Benefit: $0.5m
Net Loss: -$6m
Diluted Share Count: 35.2m
EPS: -0.17
Poly Price (Per KG)
2012/03/14 00:00 updatePoly
Item
High 29.00
Low 24.50
Avg 26.860
Chg -5.36 %
§
wer kann da noch gewinnbringend produzieren?
bereinigter gross loss: 0.6m $
operating loss: 49.9m $ (beinhaltet: provision of fixed assets impairment of $38.5 million and inventory write-down of $10.6 million)
bereinigter operting loss: 0.8m $
Umsätze:
25,1 Mio. $ für den Polysilizium Verkauf (834 MT) ~ 30,09 $/kg
9,8 Mio. $ für PV Module (9.6 MW) ~ 1,02 $ pro Watt
2,9 Mio. $ für Waferverkäufe (7.8 MW)
0,4 Mio. $ für "module processing service fee"
EK Quote ging von 64,4 % auf 51,5 % zurück.
DQ Q1 Earnings Estimate:
Revenues: $29m
Shipments: 850mt polysilicon, 16MW wafer, 3MW module, 2MW oem
ASPs: $28/kg polysilicon, $0.31/watt wafer, $0.85/watt module, $0.07/watt oem
COGS: $31m
Gross Loss: -$2m
Gross Margin: -$2m / $29m = -6.9%
Operating Expenses: $3.5m
Net Interest Expenses: $2.5m
Subsidy Income: $2m
Tax Benefit: $1m
Net Loss: -$5m
Diluted Share Count: 35.2m
EPS: -0.14
Quelle: http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ew-for-daqo-new-energy?source=feed
Daqo New bekommt 26,66 $/kg
das dürfte weit unter produktionskosten liegen, nur so ist die bereits stark negative bruttomarge zu erklären
"The Company generated revenues of $23.6 million from 1,028 MT of polysilicon sold..."
Das entspricht gerade einmal noch 22,96$ / Kg
zu wenig um sich langfristig am markt halten zu können
"The Company generated revenues of $19.4 million from 1,001 MT of polysilicon sold"
Macht einen Preis von 19,38 $ / je Kg
der Schlusskurs am 20.12. war 1,20 $
x 5 = 6 $
Aktie steht momentan bei 5,68 $
sehe hier noch luft bis 3,5 $
am 11.09 gibts zahlen
The Company generated revenues of $16.4 million from polysilicon, compared to $11.3 million in the first quarter of 2013, and $23.6 million in the second quarter of 2012. The increase from the first quarter of 2013 was primarily due to higher sales volume. The decrease from the second quarter of 2012 was primarily due to lower sales volume combined with lower average selling prices.
The Company generated $7.1 million from sales of wafers, compared to $1.7 million in the first quarter of 2013 and $2.8 million in the second quarter of 2012. The increase from the first quarter of 2013 and the second quarter of 2012 both were primarily due to higher sales volume.
The Company also generated $4.3 million from other businesses, such as sales of multi-crystal silicon blocks.
16,4 Mio. $ / 975 MT = 16,82 $ je kg
https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/us-news/...listed-firms.html
Kann mir gut vorstellen, dass diese Woche auch die Gattung der Mutter nach oben dreht
(schaut auch einmal die fundamentalen und charttechnischen Kennziffern auf marketscreener.de dazu an - das sieht sehr gut aus!).
So Long
Da darf man gespannt sein, was der Kurs in den USA heute macht.
Nach meiner Meinung ist der Grund für die massiven Kursverluste in den letzten Tagen in den USA, dass Daqo dort auf der blacklist gelandet ist. Das führt dazu, dass etliche fonds Daqo nicht mehr haben dürfen und erzeugt entsprechendem Verkaufsdruck, den die shorter mit Sicherheit auch für ihre Zwecke nutzen.
Ich weiß keine Einzelheiten zu den Vorschriften zu Firmen auf der blacklist in den USA und habe dazu auch nichts konkretes gefunden.
Früher oder später wird sich die extreme Diskrepanz in den Bewertungen China/USA aber nach meiner Meinung ausgleichen. Da die Bewertung von Daqo in China eigentlich dem Durschschnitt für PV entspricht, gehe ich von deutlichen Kurssteigerungen in den USA aus. 20% Abschlag würde ich ja noch für möglich halten, aber im Moment sind es um die 300%.
Wenn die US-fonds raus sind, werden wahrscheinlich andere Fonds einsteigen.
Ich für meinen Teil werde bei weiteren Kursrückgängen moderat nachkaufen.
Aber das ist alles nur meine Meinung. Jeder sollte für sich recherchieren und entscheiden.
Das ist schon ziemlich gut!
Ich habe so meine Schwierigkeiten mit dem Englisch von Longgen Zhang ;-)
Vor allem interessant:
Xinjiang Daqo hat vor, in den nächsten 3 Jahren mindestens 30% vom "distributable profit " als Dividende auszuzahlen. Muss aber noch von den shareholders genehmigt werden.
Und: "we can do either buyback or just continue to distribute our dividend to the U.S. shareholders."
Meine Interpretation: Daqo würde die Dividende dann an die US-Aktionäre weitergeben oder ein buyback-Programm starten.
Wenn ich das richtig verstehe, wird Daqo wohl zumindest noch 3 Jahre in den USA notiert bleiben:
That's mean we can't selling shares -- I think to payback the U.S. shareholders, that's meaning from -- three years from now, OK, from the IPO.
Damit würde die Diskrepanz der Bewertungen in China und den USA noch brisanter.
Mit Seitenblick auf z.B. Jinko:
Recently, the solar value chain has been stable at the new market prices and downstream manufacturers are currently able to pass through price increases to their customers. During the week of August 9, major solar wafer and solar cell manufacturers in China announced the price increases for solar wafers and cells, further demonstrating the strong end-market demand.
finance.yahoo.com/quote/DQ/community?p=DQ
21.8.2021, ca. 4:00 Uhr, user Chen
Quelle war die chinesische APP Chinese Xueqiu/ snowball. Einen html link zum chinesischen CC gibt es wohl nicht.
Recht interessant, ich kopiere den Beitrag mal hier rein:
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DQ China earning call
Source: xueqiu/wechat public channel Shenzhen wealth club
Capacity: 4B estimated to start production on Oct., reaching full capacity before end of next March. Next year real output would be around 12~13 MT. 4B alone brings about 4~5 MT. Planning another 20MT line in phase. Estimated full capacity 27 MT by 2024.
Cost: total 41.47 RMB/KG = 35.6 cash + 5.87 depreciation. Lower than last year due to scale.
Price: 200~205 RMB/KG July-August.
We have spend 0.12 B RMB on research. Will pay down all debt at end of September. Current market share stands at 18%. Hope to maintain that.
We expect cost will continue to be lowered as 4B online due to scale. Current energy cost is 62.89 KWH/KG, expect lower to 55-58 KWH/KG next year.
Impact of US black list:
We cannot export or import from US, but we do not need to. Second, US requires module exporter to show material proving they are not using Hoshine silicon. 30~40% of our product using Hoshine and 60~70% are using silicon from other company. Wafer makers also import from OCI, Wacker, so I think this ban has essentially no impact to us. Longer term, we think this policy is not practical, only making noises for the downstream companies. If US does not import modules from China or Chinese company, it will take 3~4 years for them to build their own. And also they do not have the technology to make solar panels of same efficiency as us. China now has developed good solar technology. They are harming themselves.
Looking to find another place for new 10 MT production line. Have to consider several factors: distance to customers, electricity cost, land usage. Energy usage quota is a big one in China now. Have to apply to get approval.
New competitors:
In the past 4 years of the turn from poly to mono silicon wafer, mono continuous crystallization and diamond line cutting was monopolized by a certain company (Chen: Longji). We have very little profit. And the silicon cost of mono is half of poly wafer. Therefore there is no demand increase for 4 years. Therefore, all foreign competitors have been outcompeted by us. And domestically there is a lot of M&A. Now TongWei, TEBA, us, New Hope, Xiexin are top players. We have 99% mono grade poly, which is a step up from other players can produce only 95% mono grade. As the industry turn from P-sili to N-sili, poor quality poly will disqualify. Some players will be shut out, and a challenge to new players. It is not simply buy some equipment and start producing, and there is patents. Each company has our own production tricks. We are not afraid of future competition. We have the largest production base in the world, it helps to have the scale.
We can make 30~40% of our output to N-sili. Now it is not a big market, but we are ready while others are still trying. In the future we expect N-sili will be more dominant and we can convert to 80% output to N-sili. It will increase a little cost (1.5~2 RMB/KG) but also commands higher prices (2~3 RMB/KG).
Semiconductor silicon
We have not yet started semi-sili production. We have a very different work path compared to China existing semi grade poly producers. They try to make their way up from the lowest quality poly. We will do the purest semi grade first. We do not make capacity estimation now but we expect to first replace foreign semi grade and then expand. The market is huge (the world knows it, yes). Semi grade can sell at 4~5 times of solar grade poly, the market is very favorable. (Chen: China would very much like to replace its poly input stock from foreign countries as long as it qualifies).
Future of DQ US:
It is possible to do a privatization, it is also possible to continuous pay dividend and buyback (Chen: I think they will pay DQ US dividend and DQ US will do buyback, currently this makes the best financial sense). We want to reward US stakeholders. We will be responsible for all our shareholders. We hope to maximize their interests.
Will you appeal to Dept of Commerce of US?
We are researching, in proper time we want to get out from the black list.
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