Der USA Bären-Thread

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ia-triple-a-not-what-it-used-to-be
A few years ago I took a pretty hard look at MBIA (MBI) — several hard looks, in fact. One of my stories focused on retroactive reinsurance issues that the company had tried to hide. (It since got dinged on it by regulators.)

In those days, I’d go back and forth with Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management, who knew this company inside-out and backwards. Nobody knew (or knows) this company as well as he does.Bill was sure, back when I was doing my original MBIA articles, that it was only a matter of time before the ratings agencies would have little choice but to pull the company’s coveted Triple-A rating.
I would argue in our conversations (wearing my columnist/commentator hat, which allows me to have opinions) that the rating agencies will never pull the Triple-A plug because doing so could be devastating for the capital and financial markets. (It reminded me all too much of the bull-bear battle in the 1990s over McDonnell Douglas, a defense contractor. The government simply wouldn’t let it fail. In fact, it wasn’t until McDonnell Douglas was absorbed by Boeing (BA) that investors realized just how fragile McDonnell Douglas had become. But I digress…)

“The rating agencies,” I would tell Bill, “are like the kid who has his thumb in the dike. They simply can’t take it out because if they do they’ll pull the whole system down with it.”Fast-forward to today: The dam is now so full of holes and cracks that the rating agencies don’t have enough fingers and toes to stop what has already started, Triple-A ratings be damned. Time to reset the clock..  

NEW YORK (Money) -- If you're saving for a retirement decades away, Thursday's big drop in the stock market shouldn't worry you too much.

But something did happen this week that you can't afford to ignore: the Federal Reserve's rate cut.

Money Magazine senior writer Janice Revell

More from Money Magazine

Why the Fed's rate cut should scare you Time to get out of debt We never got our wedding photos!

Best Places to Live Current Issue Subscribe to Money

When do you need the money? 3 - 5 years5 - 10 years10+ years

How much risk can you handle? Not much at allA reasonable amountAs much as possible

How flexible are you? If I miss my goal by a year or two, I'll still be okay. I can't afford to miss my target.

During market sell-offs, do you See an opportunity to buy more stocks Sell stocks thinking things will only get worse Do nothing

The Fed's actions could very well be ushering in a new era of inflation - and that is horrible news for your retirement portfolio.

When you save for retirement, you're saving for a lifetime supply of food, shelter and golf fees. Over time, the prices for these things only go one way: up.

The risk is that the value of the investments you're now stockpiling to pay for them may not increase at the same pace - leaving you with only enough money to pay for nine holes' worth of green fees.

With its rate cut this week, the Fed has made it clear that staving off recession is more important than reining in inflation.

But while the typical recession has lasted 18 months on average (not including the Great Depression), inflation can dog your finances for a long, long time.

Our last inflationary cycle stretched out for almost 20 years, from the mid-1960s to the early 1980s.

I'm not saying that the Fed's quarter-point rate cut is going to turn America into Argentina overnight. But you'd be wise to start taking steps to guard against the possible uptick in inflation.

Don't be too conservative

When the stock market gets especially volatile (as it is right now) there's a natural temptation to flee into conservative investments like government bonds. That's understandable - you have to be able to sleep at night.

But the risk of loss is only one of the two big risks you face. The other is the risk of inflation - and it can be just as damaging.

To see why, consider that the average rate of return on the 10-year Treasury bond has historically outpaced inflation by only about one-and-a half percentage points.

Right now, for instance, the 10-year Treasury is yielding about 4.4%, while the inflation rate is running at 2.8%.

Sure, a Treasury bond is a safe investment if you hold it to maturity. But unless you've already racked up more money than you can possibly spend, that yield will not even get you close to the stash you'll need to live on in retirement.

So to protect your portfolio simultaneously against both the risk of loss and inflation, you must be diversified.

Bonds, for instance, frequently move up when stock prices are heading south, dampening your risk of loss. But at the same time, bonds, more than any other type of investment, can get hammered by rising inflation.

Think back to the early 1980s, when inflation was running at around 10%. At the time, even ultra-safe US Treasuries were sporting double-digit yields, which certainly looked tempting. But to entice new bond investors, the government had to keep ratcheting up the interest rates they offered on new bond issues. That made the prices on existing bonds plummet (since the interest they paid was less attractive) and bond investors took big losses.

Over the longer run, common stocks have done a much better job of protecting investors from high inflation, since their returns are generally about four to five percentage points higher than high-quality bonds. But of course, stocks can crash in the short-term.

Real estate investments, such as REITS or real estate funds, typically perform the best of all types of investments during times of high inflation. But like stocks, they also carry a significant risk of short-term loss.

Add all of this up and it means that you've got to have a smattering of all asset classes. Ideally, your portfolio will hold a mix of small- and large-cap U.S. stocks, a smattering of international stocks, some REITs and some bonds.

The exact investment mix that is right for you will depend on several factors including how much time you have until retirement, the degree of risk you're comfortable taking, and other sources of retirement income you might have.

Roughly speaking, though, the targets for your retirement asset allocation might look like the following:

At 30, you might aim for 75% stocks, 10% REITs and the rest in bonds.

At 45, you'd shift to 70% in stocks/REITs, and at 60, you'd reduce your stock/REIT allocation to 60% of the portfolio (Corrected).

Even if you're already retired, you'll want to keep some exposure to regular stocks and real estate to give your portfolio a chance to generate enough income to keep pace with inflation.

I certainly can't predict the future, and neither can anyone else. One thing I do know, however, is that inflation now presents more of a threat to your retirement portfolio than it has in a long, long time.

Follow the strategies above and you'll be well on your way to handling anything the economy dishes out.

 

@Malko - gut gesagt, doch sehe ich in diesem Fall folgendes mathematische Problem:

I. da Kampftrinker = Bereuhnix = Hobbypirat = fleischgewordenesVorurteil

in Verbindung mit

II. Finanzmafia = alles Schuld

gilt

III. Information + Aufklärung = unerwünscht.

q.e.d.

Es bleibt schwierig. ;)
OnceHush!  

ja - entweder STARK anziehenden inflation in den USA  oder - die FED versucht im letzten Moment doch noch den Dampfer am Eisberg vorbeizuführen und fängt an die Zinsen mehrfach zu steigern (dass dann die Wallstreet KRACHT ist logo).
 

Mortgage Mess Mangles Ambac
By Liz Rappaport Markets Columnist
11/6/2007 5:59 AM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/market-angle/10388447.html

The sound of credit crunching is getting louder every day.

In just the past week, Citigroup (C) and Merrill Lynch (MER) have said they'll need to take nearly $20 billion in losses on risky mortgage-related paper. Speculation about further writedowns has since spread to Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) , among others. But so far, contrary to the hopes of stock-market bulls, the massive losses at Citi and Merrill haven't cleared the way for a fall recovery in financial stocks. Instead, as credit ratings agencies such as Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's issue warnings and downgrades on asset-backed securities and derivative collateralized debt obligations, the pain from the collapse of the subprime mortgage sector continues to spread. Fitch Ratings on Monday called into question the capital reserves at financial guarantors such as Ambac (ABK) , MBIA (MBI) and Security Capital Assurance (SCA) , along with closely held Financial Guaranty Insurance and CIFG Guaranty. Fitch's review is due to take four to six weeks.

If it cascades into full blown ratings downgrades, it could create another wave of forced selling in the credit markets -- this time in the $14 trillion municipal bond market.

"It's starting to feel a lot like summer," says Sid Bakst, senior portfolio manager at Weiss Peck & Greer Investments, and he's not referring to the weather. A downgrade would only add to the pain in this once-obscure corner of the credit markets. Shares of the mortgage insurers have plunged in recent weeks, as investors worry that the firms won't be sufficiently capitalized to weather a huge storm of subprime-related mortgage losses. Financial guarantors act like insurance companies to guarantee the high quality credit rating of many bonds. The credit quality and strength of their own balance sheets and capital reserves is essential, so a top, triple-A credit rating is an absolute necessity. In a report, the ratings agency says that the triple-A ratings of these financial guarantors is in question, given their exposure to collateralized debt obligations that have been downgraded since early September. Some of the financial guarantors were buyers of mortgage-backed securities and related derivatives.

Many municipal funds are obliged to own only bonds guaranteed as triple-A, rated by a triple-A-rated financial guarantor.

A muni(eig.Anm.: municipal bonds) market downturn could be disastrous not only for investors in these companies, but for individuals whose retirement accounts are bloated with what have been deemed bullet-proof, ratings- and guarantor-protected securities. Much of the forced selling may not take place unless and until ratings agencies S&P and Moody's also downgrade these institutions. But typically, ratings agencies don't diverge in their opinions for long. "This will start a chain reaction that will be very difficult to undo," says James Bianco, president of Bianco Research. Fitch's report notes that Ambac, and SCA are moderately likely "to experience pressure in their capital cushions" due to their CDO exposures. MBIA was deemed a low probability and private companies CIFG Guaranty and FGIC are most likely to suffer, says the ratings agency. The agency puts forth a remedy, however, and notes that if these firms are deemed at risk of falling below triple-A, they would have one month to raise capital "or execute a risk mitigation strategy," to resume the rating. The question is how could they raise money given their current toxic status. MBIA and Ambac shares drop continually, but for the occasional short-covering bump. They are off 72% and 54% this year, respectively. SCA is down 70% year to date. "It would be very difficult given the current state of affairs for these firms to come to the corporate bond market," says Bakst. The bonds and credit default swaps of Ambac and MBIA trade at near-distressed levels despite their double or triple-A credit ratings on the individual securities. "It is not the most attractive environment to go out and raise capital," says Tom Abruzzo, analyst at Fitch Ratings. "We recognize that." But he adds that raising capital isn't the only potential solution. These companies could seek out other companies to buy reinsurance protection, a common practice in the business. "We believe companies will do whatever they can to defend their ratings," says Abruzzo. Neither Ambac nor MBIA or SCA returned calls seeking comment. Bianco notes the guarantors could be bailed out with loans from big banks that fear the consequences of more downgrades. But, then, he notes, that means more banks extending credit to more players exposed to the disintegrating mortgage market. That brings things back to Citigroup, whose news pummeled the entire financial sector anew Monday. Investors seem now convinced that the worst is far from over. Long forgotten are Prince's comments from Citigroup's third-quarter earnings conference call that the bank would "return to a normal earnings environment in the fourth quarter."

 

Na Super.
Jetzt will ich nur noch wissen wo hier Informationen enthalten sind.
Quod erat demonstrandum.
In mens sane usw ... gefällt mir eigentlich besser , nur bei Geisterfahrern
und Geisteskranken hat man auch seine Probleme...  

Glück gehabt, AL ist noch nicht wach. ;-)  

Beschränktheit in diesen Aussagen stieß mir schon hoch. Hielt mich aber zurück. Deine Aufklärung bestätigt meine Gefühle. Auf sie scheint noch Verlass zu sein.  

Citigroup Fighting For Its Financial Life

In a quarterly regulatory filing Monday Citigroup reports $134.8 billion in 'level 3' assets.

Level 3 assets are holdings that are so illiquid, or trade so infrequently, that they have no reliable price, so their valuations are based on management's best guess. The investment bank said its total liabilities related to level 3 assets at quarter-end were $40.36 billion, according to the Form 10-Q. Citigroup said it often hedges its level 3 positions.

Citigroup uses these Descriptions

Level 1: Quoted prices for identical instruments in active markets.
This is usually known as marked to market

Level 2: Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active; and model-derived valuations in which all significant inputs and significant value drivers are observable in active markets.
This is usually known as marked to matrix.

Level 3: Model derived valuations in which one or more significant inputs or significant value drivers are unobservable.

This is usually known as marked to model. MarketWatch called it "Best Guess" accounting. Another terms frequently associated with Level 3 accounting is "Marked to Fantasy".

This hierarchy requires the use of observable market data when available.

Items valued using internally generated models are classified according to the lowest level input or value driver that is most significant to the valuation. Thus, an item may be classified in Level 3 even though there may be significant inputs that are readily observable.
Read that last paragraph carefully. My interpretation is that if the most significant weighting of valuation is at say 35%, then even if 65% could be marked as level 1 or level 2, Citigroup may use level 3 accounting for valuing the asset. The same applies between level one and level 2 decisions. Rest assured there is no strong desire to use marked to market pricing for any assets that have declined in value.

Citigroup Assets By Class


click on chart for a sharper image

CITIGROUP INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET

Total assets $2.358 Trillion
Total assets $2.231 Trillion
Equity $127 billion

Citigroup Often Hedges Level 3 Positions

From the top article: "Citigroup said it often hedges its level 3 positions."

Really?

Professor Sedacca captured this interesting screen shot earlier today.

click on chart for a sharper image

Read all the above headlines. Some of them are pretty funny.

Let's start with point 6) "Cito CFO says market was 'simply not there' to hedge CDO book. "

Now take a look at points 10-12 in the above block. Sedacca called this "Type V" accounting: "Priced to Reasonable Stab".

Adding to future supply is 15) "Citi may liquidate CDO's 'if market prices come back', CFO says"

Assuming Citigroup has some hedges (somewhere on something) exactly who is on the other side of those hedges? It does matter.

For example consider Downward Spiral of Deep Junk and a Question of Solvency at Citigroup. Both articles raise the issue that "guarantees" made by bond insurers Ambac (ABK) and MBIA Inc (MBI) might be worthless.

Level 3 assets at Citigroup exceed shareholder equity. Now take a look at level 2 assets sitting at $939 billion dollars. A mere 10% haircut in the value of those assets would eat up 74% of working capital. A 10% haircut in Level 2 assets in conjunction with steeper losses in level 3 assets would make Citigroup insolvent.

Those focusing on the dividend picture at Citigroup (especially those who do not think that dividend will be cut) are sure focusing on the wrong picture. Citigroup is fighting for its financial life.

Mike Shedlock / Mish


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/...its-financial.html   um höchst aufschlussreiche Tabellen einzusehen
 

Rohöl jetzt bald 100$. Vor ein paar Monaten war das noch die Horror-Vision für einen Irankrieg, heute ist das der Hausse Sch...egal. (Wobei der Krieg mit Sicherheit noch 2008 dazukommt.)

Dollar auf Allzeittief. Vor ein paar Monaten war 1,35 noch die "Schmerzgrenze" für die europ. Industrie. Heute Sch...egal und die Schmerzgrenze wird auf 1,50 verlegt.

Es ist zum Mäusemelken, wie sich die Kurse der notwendigen Korrektur verweigern. Dass da einige schlichte Gemüter auf einfache Erklärungen, nämlich Verschwörungstheorien, zurückgreifen ist verständlich, aber zu kurz gedacht.  

Gerade erhielt ich eine Mail meines alten Bekannten aus der Researchabteilung von Merrill Lynch. Hier ein paar Auszüge:

"...Unsere Sektion hat das ganze Wochenende über hart gearbeitet, wie auch schon das davor, und heute habe ich mal einen freien Tag. Die Leichen in unserem eigenen Keller kennen wir ja, wie du weißt, schon seit längerem, und diese sind noch längst nicht beigesetzt. Im Vergleich zu denen in den Kellern etlicher Konkurrenzbanken, die wir in den beiden letzten Wochen - so weit möglich - ausfindig gemacht haben, wird unser "Friedhof" jedoch nur einer relativ kleinen Parzelle bedürfen. Wir haben ja schon verschiedentlich über das Buch FINANCIAL ARMAGGEDON von Michael Panzner diskutiert. Was sich z.Z. in der Finanzwelt abzeichnet, ist ein herber Vorgeschmack auf das, was Panzer vorhergesehen hat, vielleicht sogar schon etwas mehr. Das Schlimmste ist: Keiner traut mehr dem Anderen, und jeder versucht, die Schuld an der Misere abzuwälzen bzw. das wahre Ausmaß zu vertuschen. Aus meiner Sicht liegen noch schlimme Zeiten vor uns. ..."

Aus diesen Zeilen wird ersichtlich, dass das "Kartell der Großbanken" wohl auseinander bricht. Jeder ist sich halt selbst der Nächste.    

da kann man verstehen, warum die Bankbosse so tun, als wäre ihre Bank nicht betroffen. Vielleicht haben ihre Untergebenen aus Angst selbst bestraft zu werden möglichst viel vertuscht bzw. verheimlicht. Fazit: Es ist noch lang nicht vorbei. Zunächst muss das Führungspersonal ausgetauscht werden, damit tabula rasa kommen kann. Mit den alten Leuten wird sich das noch ewig hinziehen.  

siehe Posting 9277... wenn ich mir die Tante anhöre, dann ist doch alles OK! Retire Rich. Entsprechend habe ich meine Zweifel, dass die Nerven blank liegen. Dieser Markt ist immer noch gut für ein Plus von 300/400 Punkten täglich.

Ölpreis ist nur der nächste Spielball. Gerade an solchen Assets wird deutlich, was der aktuelle Treiber ist: Inflation, Geldvermehrung und anschliessende Investition. Wenn alles Stricke reissen, dann kommt ein Krieg als Haushaltsstütze hinzu.

 

Die Tante ist auf einigen US-Finanzseiten vertreten und kann getrost als Kontraindikator genommen werden. Warum? Ich besuche finance.yahoo.com täglich. Bis zum Sommer war die Seite voll von Tipps, wie wo und warum man Immobilien am besten KAUFT. Seit August ist davon keine Rede mehr. Stattdessen jetzt Tipps, wie wo und warum man Immobilien am besten VERKAUFT. Daher ist die Tante als bessere Bildzeitungsschreiberin zu verstehen.    

ihre Börsenweisheiten "wenn alle short sind... blabla" "warum ich kein Bär mehr bin" hier "austauschen".
Unter Infos verstehe ich was anderes, wüsste beispielsweise zu gerne warum
bestimmte Aktien so gefragt sind. Ich kenne darauf seit 3 Jahren absolut keine plausbible
Antwort, es sei denn die brasilianischen Nutten haben jetzt mehr Kohle als der
deutsche Normalbürger. (was wiederum sehr unwahrscheinlich ist)
Die beiden können doch besser direkt miteinander kommunizieren. Ist doch sicher nicht weit.
Ps. Muss wohl was mit der Neigung zu ehrenamtlichen Hilfsheriffs zu tun habe
lol
 

Wann gab es mal 300-400 Punkte Plus täglich? Selbst in besten Hausse-Zeiten nicht... Dieser Markt ist definitiv zum Abschuss freigegeben. Was wir in diesen Tagen sehen sind die letzten Zuckungen. Und dann könntest du bald mit 300-400 Punkten recht bekommen.  

Homebuilder says October sales pace 'significantly deteriorated,' reports a 19% decrease in fiscal fourth-quarter home deliveries.
November 6 2007: 7:27 AM EST

RED BANK, N.J. (AP) -- Homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. said Tuesday it delivered 3,969 homes during its fiscal fourth quarter ended Oct. 31, down 19 percent from last year, while net contracts fell 10 percent to 2,781 homes.

Hovnanian said the preliminary figures exclude home deliveries from unconsolidated joint ventures.

The homebuilder, which has operations nationwide, said the sales pace during October "significantly deteriorated" compared with the sales pace of recent months in most of its markets.

Meanwhile, cancellations amounted to 40 percent of gross contracts, up from a 35 percent cancellation rate for both the third quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2006. Hovnanian attributed the increase primarily to tighter mortgage underwriting standards.

The company's backlog declined 30 percent year over year to 5,938 homes.

During the quarter, the company reduced debt by $390 million.

Hovnanian plans to report quarterly results in December.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/06/news/companies/...tversion=2007110607  

Der Schliesing 400 M+F
Schredder/Häcksler, 4-Zylinder Deutz-Motor 37 kW, 2-fach Wechselkupplung, Maul + Kugelkopf, Stützrad, Zugdeichsel höhenverstellbar, bündelstärke bis 20 cm, Einzugstrichter B-1200H-1050, klappbarer Einzugstisch, stufenlos einstellbare Messer, Wickelschutz an der Hackscheibe, hydr. Zwangseinzug der Einzugswalzen, stufenlos verstellbare Streuklappe, Straßenzulassung, ein-Achs-Fahrgestell, 80 Km/h.
ohne umständliche strg/alt/del taste

optionales zubehöhr:
der "real-wert-vertrag"(1 € neunundneunzisch pro kilo)des karnevalvereins konfettie.
SIV-aufsatz aus titan/carbon/fasern


so long
navigator  

als passionierter Börsenkenner sind Dir sicherlich die Squeez-Out-Anstiege im September (Zinssenkung 50 bp.) bzw. Oktober nicht entgangen. Entsprechendes kann passieren.

Die Einschätzung Get Rich... ist nur eine von vielen und ein Beweis  für das Manipulationspotenzial der amerikanischen Anlegerschaft. Geradezu primitiv werden die wirtschaftlichen Zusammenhänge dargestellt.

Letzte Zuckungen? Ja, aber vor weiteren Kursanstiegen.

 

es wird turbulent werden die nächsten Wochen/Monate/Jahre  

Die Zinsen in den USA wurden im September und letzte Woche wegen der Banken und Kreditkrise gesenkt. Es sollte eigentlich das neu aufgenommene Geld für Kreditausfälle verwendet werden und um Kreditlinien zu ergänzen. Aber was muss ich gerade lesen:

"Hohe Liquidität wird in Rohstoffe investiert

Aktuell stehen der Wirtschaft in Europa und den USA rund 10% mehr Kapital zur Verfügung, als sie eigentlich zum normalen „Betrieb“ benötigen würde. Diese erhöhte Liquidität, geschaffen durch die Zinssenkungen und Finanzspritzen der Notenbanken, wollen erstmal angelegt werden. Und hohe Summen sind nun einmal in Rohstoffe investiert worden, da diese eine inverse Korrelation zum angeschlagenen Aktienmarkt versprechen und im Falle von Gold sogar eine Absicherung gegen eine steigende Inflation. ....."

angeschlagener Aktienmarkt (US-Indizies dicht an den ATH's)???

Die Fed müsste mit Zinserhöhungen drohen wenn das Geld "zweckentfremdet" genutzt wird und könnte damit sogar den Ölpreis drücken. Aber lieber lässt man den Ölpreis nach oben laufen, die Inflation steigen um ja nur nicht den Aktienmarkt zu gefährden. Es geht aber nicht die Aktienmärkte an den Tops zu halten, die Inflation zu ignorieren und gleichzeitg die Kreditkrise zu meistern.  

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...fer=columnist_mysak&sid=arlTr.hZWskM
.... The stocks of the two biggest bond insurers, MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., plummeted as investors worried that the two firms' exposure to failing mortgages might cost them their AAA credit ratings.

On Oct. 5, Ambac shares traded at $70.57 per share. Yesterday they closed at $24.60. Back in May, they traded at a high for the year of $96.08.

The story at MBIA was little better. MBIA was $67.78 ON Oct. 5; it closed yesterday at $33.23. Its high for the year was $70.76 on May 9.

Amid the swoon, on Oct. 30, Gimme Credit, a New York-based newsletter, cut its rating on Ambac to ``deteriorating'' from stable. The same day, the company did the same to MBIA. On Nov. 2, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded the stocks of both companies from ``buy'' to the equivalent of ``hold,'' which is akin in the equity research business to throwing in the towel.Morgan Stanley, in cutting both stocks to ``hold'' from ``buy,'' said ``As the credit market continues to weaken, our confidence that guarantors will survive the credit meltdown is waning.'' ......
As of Sept. 30, 2007, Ambac said it insured a total par value of $556.2 billion in securities, 52 percent of which were U.S. municipals. MBIA had ``net par outstanding'' as of the end of 2006 of $617 billion, 31 percent of which was U.S. municipals.

The insurers are on the hook for timely payment of principal and interest. What could that number be, all told? Two trillion dollars or so? And how much do they have on hand in claims-paying resources? About $30 billion.

This is all frankly so unfathomable, in the case of the major insurers, that I would have to think it's game over, no? If one of the big insurers went down, would anyone buy the insurance of any of the others? I'm actually a little surprised that the insurers are still writing business in the municipal market --that some investors still think there is a perceived value in an insured bond.

The insurers all say there is nothing to worry about, that they'll weather the storm. The stock market has its doubts.  

Das ist genau meine Rede. Die Firmen schalten auf den "Goldnumeraire" um. Auch wenn's manche Threaderoeffner hier nicht wahrhaben wollen.  

2:48 Crude oil closes at record high of $96.70 a barrel  

null