Der USA Bären-Thread

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/.../current/txt/wpsr.txt

wie gesagt - aktuelle Lagerbestände: 312, 7 Mio Barrel
aktuelle wöchentliche Entleerung: 4,6 Mio Barrel

Man wird sich nicht wundern müssen, wenn demnächst 100 USD für ein Barrel bezahlt werden.

Wir sind auf Peak Oil level
 

Mark Hulbert, der alte Newsletterstracker sieht noch massig potential für Gold.



ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- A most surprising story is being told by the gold timing newsletters I track.


Despite bullion's strong rally in recent weeks, in which the yellow metal has soared to a 27-year high, gold timers have actually become less optimistic about gold's prospects. Normally, of course, optimism tends to rise and fall with the market itself.
The timers' relative coolness toward the gold market is a bullish sign, from a contrarian point of view. Contrarians don't start to worry about a rally until almost all the timers have jumped on the bullish bandwagon.
That hasn't happened yet.
Consider the latest readings of the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters followed by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Tuesday night, the HGNSI stood at 51.8%.
To appreciate how low this level is, consider first that the HGNSI's all-time high is 90%, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest. So this sentiment index's current reading is just barely more than half its all-time high.
That's amazing, given that gold bullion is trading at levels last seen in January 1980. If you had asked me several months ago to predict where the HGNSI would stand if and when bullion were to approach the $800 level, I would have guessed that gold timers would have already gotten on to the bullish bandwagon, or would be falling over themselves trying to climb on to it.
That's why they're often call gold bugs, after all.
Yet, as fate would have it, they on balance are instead treating gold's 27-year high as little more than a yawnfest.
The current sentiment reading is also low in relative terms. Gold bullion has risen more than 5% during October, and yet - far from rising in the wake of that strong rally - the HGNSI has actually fallen by four percentage points.
The same pattern is apparent over longer periods as well. This past February, when gold bullion was trading between $650 and $660, the HGNSI stood at 75%. So, over an eight-month period in which bullion has risen nearly 20%, the HGNSI has decreased by some 23 percentage points.
That's a remarkable divergence for two data series that normally rise and fall more or less in tandem.
And it bodes well for the gold market over the next several weeks. End of Story
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.  

... kommt ordentlich Schwung in den Euro.
Wir nähern uns in riesengroßen Schritte der 1,45.
Vielleicht ist diesmal nicht so viel durchgesickert Gsamsa, aber es ist ein erstes indiz auf die bevorstehende bewegung in den Aktienmärkten.

Man muss sich leider dummstellen. Ich glaube nicht, dass eine Senkung um ein Quarter zu einem Abverkauf führen würde, wie öfters in den Kolumnen diskutiert.
Wie immer wird das gegenteil passieren. Upupup. Nur diesmal nicht so stark.  

Basispunkte. Wahrscheinlich ist es so gelaufen:
Die Fett-Boyz haben um 15Uhr angefangen und machen jetzt um 17Uhr (=12 OZ) Mittag und da ruft Mann dann einen GUten Freund an ("Hey deep throat speaking, 50 ... No not 25, 50!! ;-) Ja und dann kauft der Freund halt ein paar Euro.Punkt.  

kommen nach hinten losgehen - natürlich geht es erst mal Schußfahrt nach oben.
Märkte könnten aber noch heute auf Tauchstation gehen, a la  Ups, sieht es wirklich so schlecht aus??  

 

Die US-Notenbank hat den Leitzinssatz, die Federal Funds, um 25 Basispunkte auf 4,5 Prozent gesenkt. Die von Bloomberg befragten Analysten waren von einer Senkung der Leitzinsen um 25 Basispunkteauf 4,5 Prozent ausgegangen.  

Börsen wissen nicht genau, was sie mit anfangen sollen, lol!  

bestände sich aktuell rapide entleeren und die OPEC nicht die Produktion nicht erhöhen will (ich und viele andere,die sich mit diesem Thema intensiv auseinadersetzen) sagen. die OPEC KANN nicht mehr erhöhen.

die minus 25 % heute der FED sind dagegen fast NEBENSÄCHLICH - oder KONTRA-produktiv, weil die inflation zusätzlich anheizt werden.

Meinen Gold- und Energieanlagen solls recht sein - aber für die USA und der Welt hat die FED neuerlich heute nichts gutes getan (klingt vermessen - wer ist schon Biomuell im Vergleich zu Berneke & Co).....  

Und auf ein Neues in sechs Wochen! Das PPT braucht VIIIEL Geld, um die Show am laufen zu halten, auch wenn der katalytische Effekt, wie Anti Lemming brilliant dargelegt hat, die Dummköpfe die "faulen Fische" schlucken lässt...  

Jetzt gehts erstmal abwärts.  

beherzt zugegriffen. Ich bin allerdings nicht ALs Meinung der katalytischen Manipulation. Die werden niemals ihren gekauften Scheiß komplett los. Und ihre Depots füllen sich langsam aber sicher...  

2:25 pm : The FOMC gave the market what it wanted when it elected to cut the fed funds rate and discount rates by 25 basis points each to 4.50% and 5.00%, respectively.  The early reaction, however, has been negative with the major indices surrendering nearly the entirety of their pre-FOMC decision gains.

Presumably, traders are disappointed in the implication in the directive that another rate cut is by no means certain.  To this end, the FOMC said the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth.

In addition, there was an acknowledgment that recent increases in energy and commodity prices may put renewed upward pressure on inflation.  It is also noteowrthy that today's vote wasn't unanimous.  Kansas City Fed Presdient Hoenig dissented, preferring no change in the fed funds rate.DJ30 +6.18 NASDAQ +1.76 SP500 +0.49


die FED hat zwar die Zinsen gesenkt, aber klar gemacht, dass damit KEINESWEGS ein Down-Zinszyklus eingeleitet wurde.
 

eins - nein zwei Sachen hat die Fett ja erreicht. Euro 1.4485 sauber, Öl 94$ (+4%) ne echt starke Leistung.
Meine Analyse:
Al Qaida hätte es nicht besser machen können. Oder ist Heli etwa ein ...?  

Benny hat der Blase noch einen geblasen.  

Nachdem an den Devisenmärkten die einhellige Meinung galt, dass 0,25% eingepreist seien, wundert es mich um so mehr, dass der Euro jetzt dennoch bei knapp 1,45 steht.
Um so erstaunlicher, da für den EUR der worst-case eingetreten ist: "another rate cut is by no means certain"

Hat jemand nen PLlan, was das soll`?  

Gerade eben mit Schmackes über die 1,45!
Verstehs einer...

Sorry für die minütlichen Standesmeldungen, aber DAS will mir grade nicht einleuchten.
Werde ab sofort erstmal lange zeit keine "akuten" Wertmeldungen bringen!"!  

Blasenstand:

Euro: 1,45 Dollar
Google: 700 Dollar
Öl: 94,56 Dollar


Feuerstand:

Nachtrag zu "Burning L.A." (Alter Schwede): Es sieht in der Tat so aus, als ließen die Amerikaner Kalifornien abbrennen, um diejenigen Subprime-Teile, die man deutschen Landesbanken und der IKB nun nicht mehr weiterreichen kann, nun der Münchener Rück umzuhängen.


Luftstand:

US-Indizes nahe Allzeithochs


Erdstand:

Commander an Houston: Die harte Landung wird wegen brennender Dachziegel am Bug der Housing-Fähre "Bernanke" noch um drei Erdumrundungen verschoben.


Handstand

Yogische Übung der Hedgefonds-Manager, damit ihnen die letzten verfügbaren Groschen aus der Tasche fallen.  

Bernanka hat keine andere Möglichkeit gehabt. Wenn ihr mich fragt ist der arme Mensch mitlerweile nur noch eine Marionette des US-Imperiums. Ob diese Taktik bis zur nächsten US-Wahl ausreichen wird - we will see.  

Americans have record credit-card debt and banks are starting to sweat an uptick in default rates, reports Fortune's Peter Gumbel. Why some fear this could be the next subprime:(Fortune Magazine) -- This past summer's subprime meltdown involved about $900 billion in now-suspect securitized debt, reckless lending, and consumers who buckled under the weight of loans they couldn't afford. Now another link in the consumer debt chain - credit cards - is starting to show signs of strain. And the fear that the $915 billion in U.S. credit card debt (an uncannily similar figure) may blow up has major financial institutions like Citigroup, American Express, and Bank of America strapping on their Kevlar vests.

Last month, as banks reported their worst quarterly results since 2001, concerns about rising credit card delinquencies began to make their way onto earnings announcements alongside mentions of subprime woes. First Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500), reporting a 57% decline in earnings, cited higher consumer credit costs and said it would put aside $2.24 billion in loan-loss reserves to cover future defaults.

In describing the situation to analysts, CFO Gary Crittenden said Citi's credit card holders were beginning to increase the balance on their cards or take cash advances on those cards for the first time - behavior that, in his experience (which includes seven years as CFO of American Express), can translate into future trouble. Citi said the change in loan losses was "inherent in the portfolio but not yet visible in delinquencies."

Then American Express  said that it too was seeing "signs of stress" and would boost its loss reserves in its core U.S. card unit by 44%. Capital One , Bank of America , and Washington Mutual  all said they are bracing for a 20% or higher increase in credit card losses over the near and medium term.

So are U.S. credit cards going to be the catalyst for the next seizing up of the global credit markets? It depends on whom you ask.

"We are in a heightened state of alert to monitor a potential domino effect," says Michael Mayo, Deutsche Bank's U.S. banking analyst.

Dennis Moroney, an analyst at TowerGroup, expects credit card delinquencies will rise as consumers, who have until now used home-equity lines of credit to pay off their cards, start ratcheting up higher card debt. When housing prices were rising, it was easy for consumers to tap the escalating values of their homes to keep borrowing. With the home-equity spigot turned off, over-leveraged consumers may have trouble keeping up with payments.

The doomsday scenario would play out something like this: Just like CDOs and other asset-backed securities, credit card debt is sliced, diced, and sold off again as packages of securities. Rising delinquencies would hurt not only the banks involved but the securities backed by the credit card receivables. Those securities would decline in value as consumers defaulted, leading to bank losses as well as portfolio losses in the hedge funds, institutions, and pensions that own the securities. If the damage is widespread enough, it could wreak havoc on the economy much as the subprime crisis has done.

To be sure, there are key differences between the subprime market and the problems brewing with credit cards. The first is that while rising mortgage delinquencies were apparent for months before the subprime market blew up, credit card delinquencies are actually coming off unusually low levels. .....
but credit card debt is different from subprime debt in another way: Unlike mortgages, credit card debt is unsecured, so a default means a total loss. And while missed payments are at a historical low, they show signs of an uptick: The quarterly delinquency rate for Capital One, Washington Mutual, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase, and Bank of America rose an average of 13% in the third quarter, compared with a 2% drop in the previous quarter.If there is an international precedent the U.S. should be watching, it's actually that of the U.K. British consumers are just as overstretched as Americans, but since the real estate market there rose faster and fell earlier, they're about 18 months ahead in the credit cycle. Since the last quarter of 2005, credit card delinquencies and charge-off rates in Britain have risen as much as 50%, forcing banks to take huge write-offs.

It's a sign of the times that, according to one survey last month, 6% of British homeowners have been using their credit cards to pay their mortgages. That's suicidal, of course, given that credit card interest rates are more than double even the heftiest mortgage.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/29/magazines/fortune/...rsion=2007103013  

Sorry Leute, aber jetzt noch auf fallende Kurse zu hoffen, ...

Denke jetzt werden sich die Bullen ihre Jahresperformence nicht mehr kaputtmachen lassen. Da die Unternehmensdaten nicht auf breiter Front enttäuscht haben und die Liquidität vorhanden ist, wird man eher zum Jahresende noch Windowdressing betreiben. Und da es relativ viele Shorties gibt, tun die ihr übriges. Ab der 2.Januarwoche denke ich wieder an eine größere Shortposi nach. Bis dahin sehe ich es falsch an, auf fallende Kurse zu spekulieren.

Trotzdem viel Glück.  

zu Feuerstand...
soweit hatte ich noch gar nicht gedacht...(bin halt rechtschaffen),
wenn das Schule macht, ist der DOW bald bei 20000.
mfg nf  

Postings # 8945 und # 8946 scheinen mir nicht vereinbar.

# 8945: Das Geld ist alle, Verbraucher ziehen den Kreditkarten-Notnagel

# 8946: Wer soll die Indizes jetzt noch hochkaufen?  

die sich zurzeit auf 1,4 Billionen = 1400 Milliarden Dollar belaufen. Davon sind aber nur 2/3, d. h. rund 925 Milliarden, tatsächlich in Dollar angelegt sind, der Rest in anderen Währungen.

Nach # 8945 haben die Amis zurzeit allein auf ihren Kreditkarten 915 Milliarden Dollar Schulden.

FAZIT: Die "sagenhaften" Ersparnisse Chinas können die Amis mal eben mit "Plastic" bezahlen. Freilich addiert sich das eine zu dem anderen.  

LONDON: The rapidly growing appetite for fossil fuels in China and India is likely to help keep oil prices high for the foreseeable future - threatening a global economic slowdown, a top energy expert said Wednesday.

The unusually stark warning by Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, about the impact of Asia's emerging giants comes as the agency prepares to issue its influential annual report next week, which will focus on China and India.

In preparing the report, Birol said he had experienced "an earthquake" in his thinking.

"China plus India are going to dominate growth in the oil markets," Birol said during an interview at an oil industry conference. During the past 18 months, he noted, more than two-thirds of the growth in global oil demand came from China and India alone.

Demand for oil in China, he added, would eventually equal the entire supply from Saudi Arabia.Partly as a result, he added, the annual report would predict that oil prices, now at about $93 a barrel, could remain at levels much higher than thought possible in the past. This, he said, heightened the risk of a serious global economic slowdown.

"We may see very high prices that will come to a level where the wheels may fall off," Birol said. "I definitely believe that if prices stay at these levels, there will be a slowdown of the global economy."....
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/31/business/oil.php