Der USA Bären-Thread

danke für dein Appl-Chart.
rein charttechnisch magst du ja Recht haben. Ich verlasse mich bei Apple allerdings auf die Fundamentalanalyse. Und die News, die da kommen, sind vom Feinsten.
gestern zog Intel mit überraschend guten Zaheln Apple mit nach oben (Apple arbeitet mit Intel-Prozessoren)

und am 22.10. lässt Jobs die Hosen runter: Jahresendzahlen und Q4-Zahlen. (vorausgesetzt, wir erleben nicht eine platzende chinesische Serifenblase bis dahin)

Da wird sich dann zeigen, in welchem Ausmaß die Analystenmeinungen wieder übertroffen wurden (davon gehe ich sehr stark aus) Und hierbei berufe ich mich nicht einmal auf die iPhone-Zahlen, die größtenteils eingepreist sein dürften.
Vielmehr dürfte Jobs im iPod-Sektor und v.a. bei den Rechnern selbst zugelegt haben.

Ungemein viele iPod-Kunden sind mittlerweile von PCs auf Apple umgestiegen. Und da dürfte noch eine ganze Menge Potenzial schlummern. Die AKtie war sicher unterbewertet, wie sie momenbtan bewertet ist, ist wohl schwer zu sagen. Ich denke allerdings, dass da tatsächlich noch sehr viel Potenzial drin ist.
Hab mir heute morgen denn auch DB5U26 ins Depot gelegt, das ich zumindest bis zum 22.10. halten will.

Gruß

Casaubon  

erste deutliche Anzeichen für gab es für den Kapitalabfluss bereits im Dezember 2006.

Was bedeutet das?

Das heisst, dass Geld aus den USA abgezogen wird - aus welchen Gründen auch immer.

Das heisst weiters: Wenn die USA die Bewertung Ihrer ASSETS (Bewertungen ihrer Anlageklassen: Bonds, Aktien, Immobilien) aufrecht erhalten wollen - MÜSSEN sie diesen ABFLUSS mit neu gedruckten USD wieder ausgleichen und dieses ins System pumpen.

Inflation.....

http://de.today.reuters.com/news/...0_RTRDEOC_0_USA-KAPITALBILANZ.xml  

(wenn der Kapitalabfluss nicht mit neuen USD ausgeglichen wird), ist, dass zunehmend Druck aufkommt auf die Bewertungen (preise) für Aktien, Bonds, Immobilien und mehr oder weniger billiger werden (im Trend)  

Hi,

erstmal vielen Dank für die Antworten, find ich immer wieder klasse wie schnell man eine kompetente Reaktion bekommt !

Und

Aus euren Antworten ergeben sich unterschieliche Schlüsse ( für mich)  :-)

@ Obigocu,  danke für die Info das mit dem Gold checke ich mal, wenn was tolles rauskommt sag ichs. Wenn du Recht hast war es nur ein kleiner Ausrutscher und das Phänomen ist nicht bemerkenswert. Ich habe den Verdacht ( Ohne Ahnung zu haben), daß es hier um etwas anderes geht als die Auflösung von Carry Trades.

@ biomüll, wenn ich dich richtig verstehe bist nicht der Ansicht von Obi, sondern glaubst an einen Trend. Wenn es ein Trend ist, dann beschleunigtg er sich ja zur Zeit dramatisch. Damit wird die Kapitalstromfrage ja umso interessanter. Wohin fliesst das zeug ( das in meine Tasche fliessen soll)

muss wohl noch etwas grübeln

regards

fred

 

Hi,

erstmal vielen Dank für die Antworten, find ich immer wieder klasse wie schnell man eine kompetente Reaktion bekommt !

Und

Aus euren Antworten ergeben sich unterschieliche Schlüsse ( für mich)  :-)

@ Obigocu,  danke für die Info das mit dem Gold checke ich mal, wenn was tolles rauskommt sag ichs. Wenn du Recht hast war es nur ein kleiner Ausrutscher und das Phänomen ist nicht bemerkenswert. Ich habe den Verdacht ( Ohne Ahnung zu haben), daß es hier um etwas anderes geht als die Auflösung von Carry Trades.

@ biomüll, wenn ich dich richtig verstehe bist nicht der Ansicht von Obi, sondern glaubst an einen Trend. Wenn es ein Trend ist, dann beschleunigtg er sich ja zur Zeit dramatisch. Damit wird die Kapitalstromfrage ja umso interessanter. Wohin fliesst das zeug ( das in meine Tasche fliessen soll)

muss wohl noch etwas grübeln

regards

fred

 

wir betrachten  doch nur die seite der bären und dass ist auch für bullish eingestellte leutchen eine pflichtübung, um sich bestens zu positionieren.....sprich möglichst fehlentscheidungen zu vermeiden.....

zur info...AL ist weit weg......und kommt erst mitte dec.2007 zurück, ab und an schaut er mal hier rein....., wenn er eine netzverbindung hat....  

the latest flow of funds data from the US Treasury make really grim reading, as global investors are pulling out of the US en masse. The net outflow in August was $160bn. Most of that came from the private sector. The total is about 1% of GDP, or 12% annualised, which is the same of magnitude as the private outflow from Argentina in 2001 at the peak of its crisis. He also makes the point that both China and Russia have dramatically reduced their holdings of US Treasuries....
The net outflow in August – from a combination of foreign investors reducing their claims on the US and Americans adding to their claims on the world – was around $160b.   Most of that -- $140b – came from the private sector, but the official sector also reduced its claims on the US.  The total monthly outflow works out to a bit more than 1% of US GDP.   Annualized, that is a 12% of GDP outflow.    To put a 12% of GDP outflow in context, it is roughly the magnitude of the private outflow from Argentina in 2001, at the peak of its crisis. Throw in the United States roughly $70b a month current account deficit and there is a $200b – or 1.5% of GDP monthly, and more like 18% of GDP annualized – gap between the net flows in the August data and the flows needed to sustain the current equilibrium.  There is no way to spin that kind of outflow as a positive...China reduced its holdings of long-term securities, especially Treasuries.    Its logn-term holdings fell by $10b, with a $14.2b fall in its Treasury holdings.  However, it added $14.1b to its short-term portfolio (mostly by buying short-term securities other than T-bills – whether Agencies or something else).     Net flows from China were still positive – though at $4b, they were rather low.


The same basic story holdings for Russia.  Its long-term holdings fell by $5.7b, but its short-term holdings rose by $10b (mostly short-term Agencies).

Brazil’s purchases of Treasuries fell significantly, consistent with the fall in the pace of Brazil’s reserve growth.

Norway bought a ton of Treasuries (after selling a ton earlier in the year).  I hope that the complicated trading strategy the Government Fund is using is working for them … these sales and purchases are generally thought to be related to Norway’s need to hedge other positions.  

Japan sold a ton of Treasuries ($20.1b).  So did Taiwan ($5.6b).    Some of Taiwan’s sales are tied to the fall in its reserves in August, but in general Asian central banks seem to have taken advantage of the surge in private demand for Treasuries to pare back some of their own holdings.   Good for them.   August was precisely the time when central banks could sell without destabilizing the market.   Indeed, by selling an asset that private investors had previously shunned but now desperately wanted, the central banks acted as a force for stability (as they should).

Normally I would argue that the $33.2b in UK purchases of Treasuries are likely to be disguised central bank flows – and use them to offset the $29.7b recorded fall in central bank holdings.   That story still has some legs – lots of central banks do buy in London rather than New York.   But august was a strange month.   The Caymans, for example, was a big net buyer of Treasuries as well (to the tune of $26.6b), and central banks aren’t known to spend as much time in the Caribbean as another well-known class of investors.  Some UK based hedge funds could also have been buying Treasuries.

Europeans stopped buying US corporate bonds.  The eurozone reduced its holdings of US bonds by $20.2b, with a $6.3b fall in holdings of US corporate bonds.  France and Luxembourg both scaled back their holdings of US corporate debt.  The UK was still a net buyer, but only to the tune of $5.9b.   That is way, way down. ....The US deficit has overwhelmingly been financed by the sale of bonds.   Indeed, in 2006, the US sold over a trillion in bonds, or over $80b a month, on average.  ....http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/220986  

Crude oil prices continued a months-long bullish run with another record-setting day: On Oct. 16, the price for a barrel of light sweet crude surged $1.48, to settle at $87.61 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest mark recorded since contracts started trading on the exchange.

What's driving the latest bull run? Many analysts point to growing global demand amid tightening supplies. In the latest development, Turkey says it's considering sending troops into northern Iraq to pursue Kurdish guerrillas. Concerns that such actions could disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East drove prices higher yet again, capping a $9 rally that started last week. Still, some analysts say that the latest price spike has less to do with market fundamentals than with momentum traders and speculators. As they push prices up in pursuit of profits, several experts say crude could hit triple digits. "The surge has less to do with fundamentals and more to do with irrational exuberance, and we could head higher," says Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service, a consulting firm in Wall, N.J. "We don't need an extraordinary circumstance to take us to $100. With more investment money in oil and a weak dollar, we could hit that level."Over the past several years, hedge funds, investment banks, mutual funds, and institutions including Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) have invested heavily in oil (BusinessWeek.com, 1/16/07) at rates that compete with levels of global oil demand. Their weight in the market allows them to magnify what might otherwise be small price movements based on demand projections, geopolitics, and weather concerns.

Speculators currently have bullish bets on oil and are holding contracts worth 69 million barrels in this direction. That's a significant share of the oil market, in which global demand runs to approximately 83 million barrels per day. "Hedge funds and other players are supremely in control of this market," says Stephen Schork, energy consultant and editor of The Schork Report. "It's a case of the tail wagging the dog."

One key report on supply will be issued by the Energy Dept. on Oct. 17. If the report shows low supplies of crude oil or gasoline, Schork predicts prices could push past $90. "Beyond that, the sky is the limit," he says. "We are a lot closer to $100 than I thought we were a few months ago."

The bubble too shall burst!
The heavy influence of speculators could also send prices south in a hurry. Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer (OPY) points out that oil prices historically have spiked in anticipation of major events and collapsed soon thereafter. That was the case with the Arab-Israeli war, the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, Desert Storm, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and the 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. He says today's outlook appears no different.

"Industry fundamentals do not support prices above $60, let alone $80," writes Gheit in an e-mail message. "We think the surge in prices reflect excessive speculation about potential supply disruptions in the event of a major crisis in the Middle East." He does think that there will be military action in the Middle East, but he thinks that will be the beginning of a drop in oil prices, rather than a new increase. "We think the current cycle will end with the U.S. bombing of Iran military sites," writes Gheit. "The oil bubble will burst, and the price decline will be exacerbated by speculators dumping their long positions." Some analysts refute the argument that speculators and financial institutions are driving the market. "This is not a speculative run-up," says Phil Flynn, an analyst for Alaron Trading in Chicago. "It's an acknowledgment that global demand is surging while supply is tight."

Flynn says that whatever speculative "froth" is built into the price is useful to world markets because it helps moderate demand, which would otherwise rise without constraint. "Speculation has a function," says Flynn. "It keeps the market in check so that demand doesn't spiral out of control." ....Whichever way oil prices go from here, financial institutions will play a key role. On Oct. 12, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said that suppliers like OPEC have lost some control over oil pricing and markets now can move more on expectation than the fundamentals of supply and demand. "Prices are now set in trading rooms of New York and London and Frankfurt and Tokyo," Bodman said.http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/...p+news+index_top+story  

Data from the US Treasury showed outflows of $163bn (£80bn) from all forms of US investments. "These numbers are absolutely stunning," said Marc Ostwald, an economist at Insinger de Beaufort.

Asian investors dumped $52bn worth of US Treasury bonds alone, led by Japan ($23bn), China ($14.2bn) and Taiwan ($5bn). It is the first time since 1998 that foreigners have, on balance, sold Treasuries.

Mr Ostwald warned that US bond yields could start to rise again unless the outflows reverse quickly. "Woe betide US Treasuries if inflation does not remain benign," he said.

The release comes a day after the IMF warned that the dollar was still overvalued and likely to face "some depreciation in the medium term".

The dollar's short-lived rally over recent days stopped abruptly on the data, increasing pressure on US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to shore up Washington's "strong dollar" rhetoric at the G7 summit this week.David Woo, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said Washington was happy to see the dollar slide. "They don't care so long as the fall is not disorderly. They see it as a way of correcting the deficit. " he said.

Mr Woo said a chunk of the August outflows may have come from foreigners borrowing in the US during the liquidity crunch to meet needs in euros. "We think it may be a one-off," he said.

The US requires $70bn a month in capital inflows to cover its current account deficit, but the key sources of finance are drying up one by one.

BNP Paribas said America has relied on "hot money" from abroad to cover 25pc to 30pc of the US short-term credit and commercial paper market over the last two years.This flow is now in danger after the seizure in parts of the market over the summer and after the Federal Reserve's half point rate cut, which has shaved the US yield advantage over other countries.

Ian Stannard, a Paribas currency analyst, said the data was "extremely negative" for the dollar. "It exceeds the worst fears. It is not just foreigners who are selling US assets. Americans are turning their back as well," he said.

Central banks in Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam have all begun to cut purchases of US bonds, or signalled an intent to do so. In effect, they are giving up trying to hold down their currencies because the policy is starting to set off inflation.

The Treasury data would have been even worse if it had not been for $60bn of inflows from hedge funds based in Britain and the Caymans, which needed to cover US positions at the height of the credit crunch.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/...ILC-mostviewedbox  

man beachte den "poison put"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKqK63ofMSmk  

;-)

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/...blitz-on-sivs.html  

hang seng - warum immer noch unter 30.000

ich will jahresendrally ...

 

1 million using plastic to pay their mortgage
17 October 2007

More than one million people use high-interest credit cards to cover their mortgage or rent payments, debt experts say.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/credit-and-loans/...1&in_page_id=62&ct=5

 

Gute graphik dazu !
http://www.goldseiten.de/content/marktberichte/...te.php?storyid=5558

obgicou hat sicher recht, wenn er sagt, dass der Kapitalabfluss im August durch die Turbulenzen am Kreditmart geprägt war und die Septemberzahlen wieder besser aussehen sehen werden.

Dennoch wird mM nur ein Teil des im August abgezogenen Geldes im September wieder zurückgeflossen sein. Ich erwarte daher für September einen recht deutlichen Kapitalzufluss in die USA (sieht man ja an den Börsen), aber in Summe werden August + September zusammengerechnet wahrscheinlich UNTER dem Schnitt der Vormonate bleiben und den schleichenden Trend (eines Kapitalabfluss aus den USA) bestätigen. Wir werden sehen.




(Kapitalzufluss im Januar 2007 hatte den schwachen Dezember 2006 etwas ausgeglichen, aber nicht völlig kompensiert).
 

3.6 percent. That compares with an increase of 2.5 percent for all of 2006

Trotzdem - die Quaterresults sehen heute gut aus - the show goes on..
 

die grossen global agierenden US-Unternehmen verdienen prächtig (und wenn sie Gewinne aus dem Auland in den Schwachen USD umrechnen - sogar noch den Währungsaufschlag dazu) -

die heutigen Inflations daten (rufen dringend nach Zinserhöhung bei annual +3,6% Inflation) und jene zum Immobilienmarkt (rufen dringend nach Zinssenkung) waren aber katastrophal.

jeder kann sich seine Argumente aussuchen LONG oder SHORT zu gehen, die Börse wird "recht bekommen".... ;0))  

noch überrascht. ;-)  

Britain risks the prospect of a US-style crash in its house prices as the credit crunch in the financial markets takes its toll of a heavily over-valued property market, the International Monetary Fund warned today.

In its half-yearly health check of the global economy, Washington-based IMF said the housing market in the UK was even more over-priced than that in America before its recent prolonged decline.

"Housing markets have boomed in a number of fast-growing countries, most notably Ireland, Spain and the UK, with rapid price rises and sharp increases in residential investment relative to GDP exceeding even those observed during the US housing boom", the Fund said in its World Economic Outlook.Some increase in house prices, the Fund said, was justified by changes in economic fundamentals such as lower interest rates, the rise in the number of single-person households and rising incomes.

It added, however, that the model it used showed that in the US real house prices had risen by about one-third more than explained by fundamentals and that the over-valuation in Britain was even more pronounced.

"The unexplained share of house price increases is assessed to be still larger in a number of other countries, including Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK."the IMF concluded that "taken at face value, the estimates suggest that a number of advanced economies' housing markets outside the United States could be vulnerable to a correction."...Estate agents in the UK have been reporting falling prices for the past two months, while the monthly snapshot of the property market from the Halifax also showed a decline in prices in September.

The IMF said some easing in the UK property market was desirable but while downgrading its forecast of growth in Britain next year by 0.4 points to 2.3% it expressed concern that the correction could go too far......http://business.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/story/0,,2193108,00.html  

schätze diese Frage stellen sich bereits heute einige Marktteilnehmer und werden es auch in den nächsten Tagen und Wochen tun - umso mehr als der Ölpreis weiter stabil hoch bleibt und steigt.

Letzte Aussagen von Bernanke (und noch mehr von EZB mitgliedern) deuten immer darauf hin, das sich die Zentralbanken langsam aber sicher von unmittelbaren Zinssenkungen verabschieden (ausser im Panikfall villeicht).

die (ohnehin geschöhnten) US- Iflationsdaten von heute, die annualisiert bereits +3,6 % bedeuten (letzte Ölpreissteigerungen noch gar nicht inbegriffen) - sind kurz geschagt ein SCHOCK für die US Märkte, der die Freunde über die sehr positiven gemeldeten Quartalsergebnisse aus den USA stark beeinträchtigt...  

Housingstarts sind so schwach und das Ende ist nicht in Sicht;
da sch... die FED auf die Inflation  

wann ist denn nächste notenbanksitzung wegen zinsen ?  

Dann können wir bald einen Dollarkurs von 2$ und mehr für 1€ sehen. Ob das die Situation der USA westentlich bessert?! Ich wage es zu bezweifeln...  

ich traue mich nicht diesbezüglich eine Vorhersage zu treffen und werde diese Unsicherheit daher in meine Anlageentscheidungen einfließen lassen. ich bin gespannt.

Schätze aber, dass sich diese Frage nach den heutigen Daten viele Marktteilnehmer stellen werden.

Nächste Sitzung - ist ende Oct glaube ich(?)  

beginnt am 30.10.
Entscheidung am 31.10 20:15;
vorher am selben Tag kommt die erste Schätzung fürs BIP Q3;
gut vorstellbar, daß die Statistiker wieder an der Schraube drehen, um der FED Munition zu liefern.
Ansonsten stehen bis dahin an makroök. Daten von großer Bedeutung nur noch die Durable Goods und die Home-Sales für September an. Letztere werden wohl eher schwach ausfallen, wenn man sich die vorläufigen Zahlen aus den Regionen anschaut.  

denn die allermeisten Länder werden einen weiteren Zinsschritt des FED wieder nicht mitmachen (siehe wie zuletzt Saudia Arabien und andere Middle East länder; China Russland und andere "schwellenländer"; auch die EZB wird nicht mitziehen (ausser im Panikfall oder Bankenkrise).

USA kann tun was sie will, aber die würden trotzdem zahlen dafür: mit noch höheren Preisen für Rohstoffe und andere Importe - was wiederum weiter die Inflations anheizt. Irgendwann würden dann die - die für die USA teureren - Rohstoffe selbst das Wachstum beeinträchtigen. Die USA hätte am ende eines solchen Wahnsinns (weitere Zinssenkungen) dann beides: Inflation und erst recht eine Rezession (zugegeben - dafür später)