Der USA Bären-Thread

Ja, gefiel mir auch gut Dein Posting. Wer Geld in Staatsanleihen parkt, sollte sich aber gerade in Zeiten wie jetzt, in denen die Inflation auszuufern droht, nur mit Kurzläufern eindecken - sonst drohen auch hier Kursverluste.  

NEW YORK: Several of the world's biggest banks are in talks to put up about $75 billion in a backup fund that could be used to buy risky mortgage securities and other assets, a move designed to ease pressure on a crucial part of the credit markets that threatens the broader economy.

Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, along with several other financial institutions, have been meeting to come up with a plan to create a fund that could prevent a sharp sell-off in securities owned by bank-affiliated investment vehicles.

The meetings, which began three weeks ago, have been orchestrated by senior officials at the Treasury Department, and the discussions have intensified in the last few days.

A broad framework for an agreement could be reached as early as Monday, according to people with knowledge of the discussions, but many important details still need to be hammered out. Another round of discussions was taking place over the weekend, and it was still possible that the parties would not reach an agreement.

"Treasury is very serious about getting some solution in place to take away the fear hanging over the markets," said Alex Roever, a credit analyst at JPMorgan Chase who has been following the discussions but is not involved in them. "It is a very challenging thing to do. There are so many parties involved and they all don't agree."The proposal echoes the 1998 bailout of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, when a group of big banks came together to prevent the fund from collapsing after it made a series of bad bets. And the current round of crisis-driven collaboration illustrates the heightened level of concern among both government and financial players.

While there are signs that the broader credit markets have begun to stabilize after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last month, a pocket of the commercial paper market remains under siege: structured investment vehicles, known as SIVs. The fear is that problems with these vehicles could infect the broader economy......
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/14/business/banks.php  

Zeithorizont von 5 bis 8 Monaten ideal. Öffentliche Anleihen (Select Bonds - FFM) rentieren mit über 4,5%. Auch manche CB sind interessant und rentieren auf kurze Sicht um 4,7% (z.B. Daimler (Prime Bonds- FFM). Bei der momentanen Zinsstrukturkurve und der sehr wahrscheinlich steigender Inflation sind Restlaufzeiten von deutlich über einem Jahr negativ. Eine Vorsteuerrendite von deutlich über 4% ist momentan keine Kunst und risikolos zu erreichen. Klar, nicht nur bei Aktien kann man dicke Fehler machen.

metro, wenn ich mich richtig erinnere, berichten einige aus dem angeschlagenen Sektor. Das kann nur Erleichterungen auslösen. Dort sind böse Nachrichten gute Nachrichten, denn sie sorgen für Transparenz. Auch will ich bei dem schönen Wetter eventuell die eine oder andere bergtour machen. Crash also ausgeschlossen.

 

Bundesanleihen

Restlaufzeit in Jahren	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	>10
Rendite in %	4,510	4,212	4,120	4,261	4,232	4,221	4,280	4,323	4,352	4,346	4,415	>4,641
Stand: 14.10.2007

 

Bildchen (Laufzeit in Jahren):

 

Dein Wort zum Sonntag erinnert mich sehr an die Anlagestrategie meines 86 jährigen Vaters, der 37 Jahre in Anleihen und Aktien investiert hat und dabei so gut wie alles mitgemacht hat. Die Halbierung seines Geldvermögens in den ersten 10 Jahren an der Börse in den 70er Jahren (unter anderem durch die DM-Aufwertung und er in amerikanischen Aktien befindlich), die Hochzinsphase wo man für Anleihen guter Bonität bis zu 14% bekam und zuletzt die enorme Renditephase der neunziger Jahre. In Summe hat er ein Vermögen an der Börse gemacht. Nicht weil er alles zu wissen versuchte oder gar komplizierte Anlagestrategien verfolgte. Nein, seine Strategien waren sehr einfach (in seinen Worten):

1. Spekuliere nur mit dem Trend. 2. Versuche nie absolute Tiefst-und Höchststände zu erwischen. 3. Setze auf Börsenlieblinge oder wirklich spektakuläre Merger. 4. Du musst nicht immer investiert sein, sondern nur wenn es sich lohnt. 5. Verzettel dich nicht. Aber gehe bei grossen Chancen mit viel Geld rein. 6. Vertraue nie einem Bankberater.

Wenn ich ihn fragen könnte, ob ich jetzt noch Geld in Aktien investieren sollte, würde er sagen: "Junge bist du verrückt? Bei den Höchstständen der Indizes? Wenn du bis jetzt nichts verdient hast, musst du bis zum nächsten Zyklus warten."

Ich glaube, ich sollte mir seine einfachen Weisheiten mal wieder hinter die Ohren schreiben!...:-)  

So könnte man den S&P HIGH YIELD DIVIDEND ARISTOCRATS INDEX ($SPHYDA) bezeichnen, denn dessen Performance seit März 2000 ist deutlich stärker als die aller Leitindizes: plus 145 %! In den letzten Wochen zeigt dieser jedoch deutliche Schwäche. Das kurzfristige Bild ähnelt stark dem des BKX bzw. des RLX. 

 

Die Angenehmste

Das Geld mit schönen Frauen an sonnigen Palmenstränden verprassen


Die Schnellste

Nahe Höchstständen den Börsen-Tipps von Gurus und Anleger-Gazetten folgen


Die Zuverlässigste

Einen Vermögensverwalter mit der Geldanlage betrauen



------------
(Das hatte Libuda mal irgendwo gepostet, hab das jetzt sinngemäß aus dem Gedächtis rekonstruiert.)  

vor dem Hintergrund des Goldpreises aus:
 

auch wenn es etwas ironisch gemeint war, ich glaube aber das vermögensverwalter von BHF Bank, MM Warburg u.s.w. für ihre kunden das geld sicher durch die zeit bringen
__________________________________________________
auf unserem Planeten gibt es nur Propheten  

nicht, dass es hinterher heisst:

Ich bin durch die Aktien-Tipps von Anti Lemming völlig verarmt, und anschließend Libuda, wenn er genügend Knete mit seinen Internet Capital Shares gemacht hat, um ein mildtätiges Almosen anbaggern, muhaha ;-))  

meintest Du: "für ihre Kunden das Geld sich durchbringen"? ;-))

Im Ernst gilt das wohl eher für Hedgefonds...  

sollte es heißen  

Wie sah die Relativ-Performance Aktien zu Gold eigentlich aus in der Zeit nach 1980, als der Goldpreis vom damaligen ATH wie ein Stein fiel?
 

blöd ausgedrückt von mir, aber ich bin nun einmal der meinung das es vermögensverwalter gibt die ihren job gut machen aber diese leute fangen erst bei einem betrag um die
500 000 € an und dann liefern sie auch etwas anders kostenlos mit, DIE STEUERGESCHICHTE wie zahle ich am wenigsten an den fiskus

__________________________________________________
auf unserem Planeten gibt es nur Propheten  

Da kann ich dir nur voll beipflichten! Ein guter Freund von mir, der wirklich vermögend ist, hat schon Ende der 1990er sein Vermögen einer Luxemburger Vermögensverwaltung anvertraut und damit die Turbulenzen an den Aktienmärkten zwischen 2000 und 2003 hervorragend überstanden. Es gibt allerdings erhebliche Unterschiede unter den Vermögensverwaltern und insbesondere zwischen Vermögensverwaltern und Bankberatern.  

Das "Barometer" basiert auf einer Kombination von Preis, Volumen und Vola. Sehr interessant der Keil, in dessen Spitze die Barometerkurve aktuell hinein läuft. Eigentlich ist sie aber aus diesem schon marginal nach unten ausgebrochen.    

im Vergleich aller 83 Aktien-Indizes auf der Welt (Artikel unten). Deutschland liegt als einzigex G7-Land in der "vorderen Hälfte".

Heißt das nun, in USA gibt es das meiste Aufholpotenzial ("dog of the Dow"-Ansatz - auf die Welt übertragen) oder heißt das: Underperformer (= US-Aktien) rausschmeißen aus dem Depot? Ich halte Letzteres für sinnvoller, bis es mehr Klarheit bei den Subprime-Krediten gibt.

Für den Vergleich wurden allerdings die Notierungen ausländischer Indizes in Dollar umgerechnet, was beim gegenwärtigen Tiefstand des Dollars tendenziell überhöhte Werte für das Ausland ergibt (unter der Prämisse, dass der Dollar zurzeit unterbewertet ist).

Für Europäer ist das ein schwacher Trost: Auch bei den in Frankfurt gekauften US-Aktien verwässert die Dollar-Schwäche die aufgelaufenen Kurs-Gewinne. Viele US-Aktien, die in USA stiegen, liefen in Euro umgerechnet (bzw. in Frankfurt notiert) seitwärts oder fielen sogar, weil der in Dollar zum Euro stärker fiel, als die Aktien (in Dollar gerechnet) stiegen. Ein Investment in USA ist daher nur sinnvoll, wenn man den Wertverfall des Dollars für ein vorübergehendes Phänomen hält oder davon ausgeht, dass das Tief beim Dollar jetzt bereits nahe ist.

---

NEW YORK TIMES
Strong Gains in U.S., Except by Comparison
By FLOYD NORRIS
Published: October 13, 2007

FIVE years after the American stock market hit bottom after the bursting of the technology stock bubble and the 2001 recession, share prices as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 have doubled.

That growth amounts to a compound annual increase of 15 percent a year and is the fastest doubling off a market bottom since the 1980s. But in the current world environment, it does not look impressive. Nearly every other stock market in the world has done better.

Of the 83 countries for which records of a major stock index were available, the American share price increase in the five years after Oct. 9, 2002, was better than those of only four. All four are small countries, either in the Caribbean or Latin America.

But South America also produced three of the six best-performing markets during the period, in Peru, Brazil and Colombia. Peru’s annual gain of 87.5 percent was the best in the world.

That all 83 markets around the world had an increase is emblematic of the strength of the global economy and the willingness of international investors to pour money into markets that many had never heard of — or that did not exist — 20 years ago.

The figures show the change in dollars, which makes returns in many countries appear more impressive than they would if local currencies were used because the dollar has generally been weak. Markets in Britain and Italy, for example, doubled in terms of dollars, but not in pounds or euros.

It was just a decade ago that international investors lost huge sums in some emerging markets, as the Asian currency crisis devastated investors. In 1997, the South Korean stock market fell by more than two-thirds and the Thai market fell by more than three-quarters.

But those days are forgotten, and the lure of big returns has attracted investors from around the world to markets on every continent, save for Antarctica. With commodities prices rising, markets in some countries have benefited from their natural resources, while others have benefited from the expansion of local manufacturing of products for export.

Of the traditional industrial powers, known as the Group of 7, only Germany made it into the top half of markets, ranking 39th with a 34.3 percent annual gain. Japan and Britain joined the United States in the bottom 10.

The extent to which stock market capitalism has been embraced around the world is indicated by the fact that the market that came in 24th — between Norway and Austria — is Vietnam, where the Ho Chi Minh index rose at an annual rate of 42.6 percent over the five-year period.

That performance fell a bit short of the 43.8 percent annual gain for the Russian RTS Index but was a full 10 percentage points better than the 32.6 percent return shown by the Shanghai composite index in China. It paled next to the gains of 83.7 percent shown by Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union, and 77.1 percent in Bulgaria, once a Soviet satellite.

Many of the national stock markets are very small — the Ho Chi Minh index has 118 companies, many of them worth less than $1 million — and even a little foreign capital can drive them up rapidly. Still, the expansion of stock markets around the world is not complete. There are, as yet, no indexes named after Fidel Castro or Kim Il-sung.
 

bieten US-Aktien allerdings auch einen doppelten Hebel nach oben. Erstarkt die US-Wirtschaft (aus Gründen, die wir heute noch nicht absehen können), steigen nicht nur US-Aktien überproportional, sondern auch der Dollar würde wieder stärker. Frankfurter US-Notierungen erhielten dann sozusagen einen "doppelten Push".

Diese These vertritt Libuda hier im Board. Ob sie auf geht, steht in den (50) Sternen.

Verschärft sich die Kredit- und Liquiditätsthese in USA hingegen (meine Vermutung) wirkt der gleiche Hebel doppelt nach unten (außer wenn der Dollar bei einer Krise als Fluchtwährung gesucht würde und dadurch erstarkt, was möglich, aber schlecht vorhersagbar ist. Ebensogut könnten Ausländer in einer Krise den Dollar zum Abschuss freigeben).  

 

Bären? Was für Bären? Wo sollen diese denn sein, fragt sich Lee Wheeler im Wall Street Examiner-Blog

……That said, who are these bears that he is talking about? All the bullz talk about the bears being wrong. Problem is, there aren’t any bears. At least none with enough money to make outsized betz against the markit.

There’s Prechter. He’s not even in the markit. There’s Doug Kass. He’s probably worth a few mill in dark side betz. There’s Dave Tice and his Poodent Bear Fund. But he’s teets-long metals, so he’s as bullish as any of the girlybullz, only he’s bullish on the goldies. Is Joe6 betting against the markit? Hardly. He’s all in. Or at least as all-in as he’s gonna get at this point.

The II survey—which dates back decades and includes a broad swathe of money manglers and newsletterites—is more bullish than they have been in years. The Big Doggies in the Barron’s Big Monkey Poll are wildly bullish. The Heavy Money folks polled at the beginning of the year by Barron’s were ALL bullish. They couldn’t find even ONE bear among ‘em.

Where are the bearz in this pickshur?

Mebbe Whitmore and Schtinkter are talking about the market-neutered hedgetarians when they talk about bearz. These are the guys (and they’re ALL guys) who balance long and short positions. But they are all mondo-levered and their idea of market neutral is 140% long and 40% short, or 110% long and 10% short, or 1,000% long and 200% short, or some variation.

How many actual short funds are there out there? Five? Ten?

I don’t know if any of this matters. The indicators that the girlebullz like to cite—like the poot-call and so forth—weren’t showing a substantial amount of “wrong way” betz in the late 1990s. Yet the market still ramped like crazy. So the fact that some folks today are hedging with poots, or selected short positions, or some other derivative strategy, may have no effect one way or the other.

In effect, the market will do what it does. But it surely isn’t ramping ever higher because of all the wrong-way betz that the apocryphal legion of bears are supposedly making.

The folks that matter, the ones with the big money, are teets-long. And as long as they are willing to chase the market higher, using 5x or 10x, or in the case of Goldman’s Sac, 20x or more leverage, then it really matters little what a motley den of decrepit bears do or don’t do.

For some reason, the girlybullz like to think of themselves as contrarian: “See, everyone is bearish except me, and I’ve been right all along.”
The problem with this is that it’s false. They are part of the bullish mega-majority. But generally, the crowd is right until their wrong. It rarely pays to be a contrarian, whether bullish or bearish, except at inflection points or if you’re willing to sit thru a big drawdown.

So being a bull for the past 5 years has been the correct stance. But the interesting thing is how different today’s environment is from the late 1990s. Back then, there was far less unanimity among money manglers and Cheat Streeters. However, Joe6 and friends were psycho-bullish. They were as bullish on schlocks as they subsequently became on Ream Estate.

But this time around, Joe6 is not in the picture. He got burned in 2000, his attention turned to RE. But Joe’s not bearish, he’s just disinterested. That doesn’t mean he isn’t plowing his 201k into the markit. He surely is. But he’s not excited about it. Conversely, the po’feshinal crowd and the crooks and insiders are now psycho-bullish.

When this particular bull markit ends, whether now or three months from now or three years from now, the girlybullz will be cornfused and will be scratching their fannies, “I thought it wouldn’t end until the poot-call came down or until the shorts were genocided or until I got stock tips from a cab driver or until some doof down at the gym wanted to watch the Faux Business Channel.”
But it’s a different bull markit in the U.S. than it was in the 1990s. So it won’t end the same way.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/wheeler/?p=334
 

US-Index-Puts auf den SP-500 sind zurzeit deutlich teurer als vergleichbare Calls - wegen der großen Nachfrage, die auf Crash-Ängste zurückgeht.

Dieser relative Preisanstieg ist noch stärker als 2001, als sich der DOW auf eine 34-%-Reise gen Süden machte. Einige Fondsmanager halten dies für ein "bäriges Zeichen".

---

U.S. Stock Market Stumble Presaged by S&P 500 Options (Update3)

By Jeff Kearns and Michael Tsang
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Skittishness over the U.S. stock market's record-setting rally is reaching a crescendo among options traders who are preparing for a crash.

Investors are paying the most ever to protect against a drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, data compiled by Morgan Stanley show. The gap between the price of so-called put options on the benchmark for U.S. equity and the cost to wager on further gains has averaged about 8 percentage points since August. That's more than the previous high in July 2001, before the index dropped 34 percent and fell to the lowest this decade.

The widening spread is a warning for OppenheimerFunds Inc. and Harris Private Bank, which oversee more than $300 billion and say the bearish bets indicate stocks may fall. The S&P 500 rebounded 10 percent since Aug. 15 on speculation the worst is over for banks and homebuilders hurt by the collapse of subprime mortgages. Shares in developed markets outside the U.S. have done even better, climbing 14 percent from their trough.

``Battle-scarred investors are buying some insurance this time around, having the benefit of hindsight,'' said Jack Ablin, who oversees about $50 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. Ablin said he bought put options for clients during the rally.

The seven-week rebound in stocks allowed investors in S&P 500 shares to recoup all the $1 trillion they lost during the biggest plunge in four years. Global indexes fell as defaults on loans to people with poor credit and the worst U.S. housing slump in 16 years caused corporate borrowing costs to increase.

All-Time High

The S&P 500, which dropped 9.4 percent between July and August, rose 2 percent last week to a record 1,557.59, eclipsing the previous high of 1,553.08 on July 19. The Morgan Stanley Capital International EAFE Index of non-U.S. developed markets gained 1.6 percent to 2,336.47, also ending the week at an all- time high.

The S&P 500 today lost 0.3 percent to 1,552.58 in New York as concern grew that third-quarter earnings rose at a rate that won't justify this year's rally. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European companies slid 0.3 percent, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell 0.2 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index declined 0.7 percent, the biggest drop in three weeks.

Last week's advance hasn't dispelled concern among traders in U.S. options. They are pricing in the highest risk of an equity-market decline since the technology-stock bubble burst at the start of the decade, according to Carl Mason, head of U.S. equity-derivatives strategy at Morgan Stanley in New York.

Implied Volatility

Mason says implied volatility, a measure that calculates expected price swings of an underlying asset and is used as a barometer for options prices, shows many investors are betting that stocks may fall.

Since Aug. 15, the implied volatility of put options that lock in gains should the S&P 500 drop at least 10 percent in six months has averaged 24.08 percent, according to data from Morgan Stanley, the second-largest U.S. securities firm by market value after New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The implied volatility on puts is 8.1 percentage points higher than for call options, enabling investors to profit if the index rises at least 10 percent in the same period. The so-called implied volatility skew climbed as high as 8.53 points since mid- August. That's steeper than 99 percent of all readings since the start of the decade, Morgan Stanley said. The median difference is 5.9 percentage points.

The gap shows there's ``an awful lot of nervousness,'' said Mason. ``A lot of investors don't want to get caught out.''

Slowing Economy

The last time the skew steepened as much was in July 2001, when it touched 8.24 percentage points, according to Morgan Stanley's data. In the following 15 months, the S&P 500 tumbled as the U.S. economy suffered its first recession in a decade.

This time around, economic growth is also slowing, increasing the likelihood stocks will fall, according to OppenheimerFunds' Kurt Wolfgruber.

The U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the third quarter compared with 3.8 percent in the previous three months, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed. They expect growth this quarter to slow to 2.2 percent.

Analysts have pared their earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies. They estimated profit growth of 0.7 percent in the third quarter as of Oct. 4, down from 4.6 percent in mid-August. If the projections are correct, it would end a streak of 20 straight quarters of at least 10 percent growth.

`Less Sanguine'

Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, last week said third- quarter profit fell 60 percent, while Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's largest brokerage, reported its first quarterly loss in six years. Both New York-based companies cited losses on asset- backed securities and loans for leveraged buyouts.

``There's a good case to be made that the market is a bit ahead of itself,'' said Wolfgruber, who oversees $265 billion as OppenheimerFunds' chief investment officer in New York. ``Things are less sanguine than they were three months ago.''

Morgan Keegan & Co.'s John Wilson said interest-rate reductions by the Federal Reserve will make equities even more attractive. The central bank lowered its benchmark lending rate on Sept. 18 by a half-percentage point to 4.75 percent, which helped to fuel the stock-market advance.

A jobs report last week also showed that U.S. employment increased by 110,000 jobs in September, while revised figures for August showed an unexpected gain of 89,000. The change wiped out what had been the first drop in employment in four years, and lessened concern the six-year expansion will come to an end.

Fed Funds Futures

``We're going to keep moving higher,'' said Wilson, co- director of equity strategy at Memphis, Tennessee-based Morgan Keegan, which manages $120 billion. Investors are ``foolishly buying'' protection, he said.

[So kann man aus Bullensicht auch argumentieren - A.L.]

Dean Junkans, who oversees $250 billion as chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Private Bank in Minneapolis, says investors are putting too much faith in the Fed keeping the economy from slowing. The chance of policy makers cutting rates twice by December fell to 28 percent last week, fed funds futures showed. Two weeks ago, prices reflected a 74 percent chance of two quarter-point rate reductions by year-end.

``Just because the Fed lowered rates doesn't mean that everything is hunky dory,'' said Junkans. ``We had a quick snapback in the last couple weeks. Is that warranted? I think you have to scratch your head and say `Gosh, it's tough to see that it is,' based on the economic data.''

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said last week that the chances of a U.S. recession have increased and ``the worst may not be over'' for the credit markets roiled by subprime defaults and borrowing costs that rose to a six-year high in September.

David Tice, who runs the $789 million Prudent Bear Fund in Dallas, is more pessimistic. He owns S&P 500 put options because stocks could ``easily'' decline by more than 50 percent in the next 12 months to 24 months.

[Na ja, als Manager eines Bären-Fonds... - A.L.]

Tice says the latest rebound only delays an inevitable crash, comparing it to when ``somebody falls out of a 95-story building.''

``They haven't hit the ground yet,'' he said, ``But they're getting closer and closer.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net ; Michael Tsang in New York at mtsang1@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: October 8, 2007 16:39 EDT  

Schade, dass ich nicht so einen tollen Großvater hatte! Aber ich hätte sowieso nicht auf ihn gehört und erst heute (in meinem gesetzten Alter) begriffen wie genial er gewesen wäre. Aber lieber späte Erkenntnis als keine.  

Ich werde in unmittelbarer Folge drei Langfristcharts der DOW/GOLD-, der FED FUNDS RATE/GOLD/OIL- und der OIL/CRB/GOLD-Relationen zeigen. Meine Sicht: Wir haben es aktuell mit einer der größten Verwerfungen der Wirtschaftsgeschichte zu tun. Starke tektonische Verwerfungen führen i.d.R. zu starken Erdbeben bzw. Vulkanausbrüchen.