Kursverdoppelung bei Actua Corporation (vorm. Internet Capital)

gut. Im ersten Halbjahr hat man 33 Mill. verbrennen müssen um den Umsatz stibel zu haben. Jetzt haben sie nur noch 40 Mill. Dollar zur Verfügung. Diese müssen sie wohl verbrennen um die Umsätze im zweiten Halbjahr stabil zu halten. Wenn das Geld weg ist, können sie keine Umsätze mehr kaufen und der Umsatz wird massiv 2017 einbrechen. Schätze so um 50%. D.h. man kann 2017 allenfalls mit Umsätzen von 70-90 Mill. rechnen.

Jeff Van Rhee, Craig-Hallum - Analyst
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So if I look at the annual guide here, given the recurring nature on most of the models, can you just talk to the range, that 155 to 160. What scenarios put you at the high end of that range? What scenarios put you at the lower end of the range? Maybe just a little sensitivity on the revenue side.
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Kirk Morgan, Actua - CFO
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So I think in the hot end, Jeff, in order to hit that we would really need to see an acceleration of translating the bookings that we've been talking about into revenue faster than sort of historically so that we're working very hard at trying to get to that point and do that. And it's within - the reason why we could do that is given the bull platform is so developed, it could be easier to on-board the next customer that we see booking versus what we've seen maybe a couple of years ago. So that gives us the opportunity to do that. And we still feel comfortable in the middle part of that range.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...a-earnings-conference-154356723.html
 

 

der Kurs geht deutlich nach unten. Langsam scheint der Markt zu realisieren, dass Actua 2017 die Kohle ausgeht und man sich keine Umsätze mehr kaufen kann.

.During the six months ended June 30, 2016 , Actua paid $9.5 million related to the repurchases at an average stock price of $9.41 per share

Actua has been authorized pursuant to a share repurchase program to repurchase, from time to time, shares of Common Stock in open market transactions, including pursuant to trading plans meeting the requirements of Rule 10b5-1 under the Exchange Act or in privately negotiated transactions. The program was adopted in 2008 and was most recently expanded in 2013 to allow for the repurchase of up to $150.0 million of shares of Actua's Common Stock. During the three and six months ended June 30, 2016 , Actua repurchased 540,000 shares and 1,010,000 shares of its Common Stock, respectively. During the six months ended June 30, 2016 , Actua paid $9.5 million related to the repurchases at an average stock price of $9.41 per share. Actua did not repurchase any shares during the three months ended June 30, 2015. During the six months ended June 30, 2015 , Actua repurchased 96,277 shares of its Common Stock at an average price of $17.66 per share. Since commencement of the program, Actua has deployed a total of $64.8 million to repurchase a total of 6,997,849 shares of Common Stock for an average purchase price of $9.26 per share. As of the date of this Report, Actua may repurchase an additional $85.2 million of its Common Stock under the program. Repurchases are reflected in the line item “Treasury stock, at cost” as a reduction of stockholders’ equity in Actua’s Consolidated Balance Sheets in the relevant period.

http://icge.ir.edgar-online.com/...p;filename=ACTUA_CORP_10Q_20160805
 

decken nicht einmal ansatzweise die Verwässerung durch die Optionsprogramme des Managements ab. 2014 hat sich das Management über 4 Mill. Gratiskatien im Wert von über 100 Mill$ genehmigt. Die Rückkäufe sind nur Kosmetik und Kosten Geld, welches Actua jetzt schon nicht mehr hat wegen der hohen Verluste des operativen Geschäfts.

Cash flows from operations for the second quarter of 2016 was $1.5 million, compared to $1.0 million for the comparable prior year quarter.  Non-GAAP cash flows from operations for the second quarter of 2016 was $2.6 million, compared to $1.2 million for the comparable prior year quarter.

http://www.actua.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/...-Release-FINAL.pdf
 

 

Ist ja wohl ein Witz.

Bei hypoport kann man über solch witzige Klecker-cashflows nur müde lächeln.  

2016 Guidance
Actua continues to expect positive annual non-GAAP cash flows from operations in the range of between $3.0 million and $8.0 million.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...s-second-quarter-2016-123000263.html

Da der operative Cash Flow im ersten Halbjahr vor allem bzw. fast ausschließlich durch eine Ausweitung der Forderungen an Kunden und eine Reduzierung der Verbindlichkeiten gegenüber Lieferanten, also eine Erhöhung des Working Capital; negativ warm wird der Wert nach dem unverändert positiven Saldo massiv ins Plus drehen.
 

EV/Cashflow von irgendwas um die 70

Bei Hypoport liegt diese Kennzahl bei etwa 17

Nach Cashflow ist Actua also 4 mal so teuer wie Hypoport.  

dargestellt, denn wir gehen ja von der folgenden Basis aus.

Cash flows from operations for the first half of 2016 was $(11.7) million.
http://www.actua.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/...-Release-FINAL.pdf

Wenn dann der Guidance von trotzdem positiven 3 bis 8 Millionen für das Gesamtjahr ausgeht, und diese dann zuletzt noch einmal ausdrücklich bestätigt, muss der operative Cash Flow im zweiten Halbjahr 2016 zwischen 14,7 und 19,7 Millionen liegen.
 

 

wieder stark im Minus. Die Märkte realisieren langsam, welches Drama sich da bei Actua abspielt, wenn man Ende des Jahres ohne Cash dasteht und keine Umsätze mehr zukaufen kann.

der Cash von 41 Millionen am Ende des ersten Halbjahres und den geschilderten Cash-Flow-Zuflüssen resultieren, wenn man zudem weitgehend schuldenfrei ist?

Ganz einfach: Man denkt über weitere Aktienrückkaufe und kleinere Unternehmenskäufe nach, wie der folgende Dialog von Conference Call zeigt:

Jeff Houston, Northland Securities - Analyst [16]
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Great. Then switching over to [a] use of capital, how do you think about doing smart tuck-in acquisitions like you've done in the past versus share buybacks, or other creative things you could do with your cash balance?
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Kirk Morgan, Actua - CFO [17]
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It's a good question, Jeff. And I think as we looked at capital allocation in the first half of the year, our largest [out pace] has been the share buybacks of 9.5 million, but we've also made one acquisition in ErgoAdvocate. And we think that tuck ins are certainly a mainstay of our strategy. As we think about the four businesses, and we really very much view that. You need to build out the suite for that industry, for that professional whether it's an insurance agent, wealth management advisor, safety manager.

And with Velocity, we've made some really nice acquisitions with KMI and the incident management space in ErgoAdvocate and ergonomics. I think you'll continue to see us look in that market. We think it's rich with opportunity. With Gov, two nice acquisitions at NuCivic and the data side, and at Textizen and the texting capability. And there's certainly opportunities there.

And we think Folio as well. So it certainly will be - we think our balance sheet allows us to do both. And we think it's an important part of our strategy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...a-earnings-conference-154356723.html
 

 

angeblich keine Übernahmen erfolgten, wurde z.B.Ergonomics Software übernommen:

February 29th, 2016
VelocityEHS Strengthens Its EHS Platform with the Acquisition of Ergonomics Software
Chicago (February 29, 2016) — VelocityEHS, the leading cloud environmental, health, safety (EHS) and sustainability software provider, announced today that it is adding an ergonomic solution to its comprehensive EHS platform with the acquisition of ErgoAdvocate, a web-based system that empowers employees to prevent musculoskeletal disorders. With musculoskeletal disorders reported as some of the most common and costly work-related injuries, nearly every employer faces risks associated with ergonomic injuries suffered by its staff. The VelocityEHS Ergonomics solution provides expert online assessment and training so businesses can reach more employees at a lower cost than traditional consulting programs and decrease the expenses associated with worker injury.

http://www.actua.com/...ith-the-acquisition-of-ergonomics-software-4/
 

July 28th, 2015
GovDelivery Acquires Textizen to Help Public Sector Organizations Drive Citizen Action through Mobile Engagement

SAINT PAUL, Minn., July 28, 2015 — GovDelivery, the leading cloud-based digital communication solution for government, has acquired Textizen, an innovative platform that allows government to reach the public via mobile messaging to promote citizen action, engagement, and behavior change. Adding Textizen’s capability to GovDelivery provides government with the ability to customize interactive experiences meeting citizens where they are today — the mobile device. Financial terms were not disclosed. The entire Textizen team will join GovDelivery immediately.
GovDelivery is seeing massive demand for mobile messaging with government organizations using its platform to sends hundreds of millions of text messages and billions of mobile email messages annually. This acquisition allows GovDelivery to offer a new level of interactivity to its government customers.

http://www.actua.com/...ive-citizen-action-through-mobile-engagement/
 

Vielleicht kann uns ja Katjuscha einmal erläutern, ob und warum Hypoport im zweiten Halbjahr 2016 den vermutlich zwischen 14,7 und 19,7 Millionen liegenden.operativen Cash Flow von Actua erreicht.  

Übernahmen waren Mini-Akquisen mit einem Volumen von jeweils deutlich unter 3Mill.$, 

was man sehr gut aus dem Quartalsbericht herauslesen kann.

http://icge.ir.edgar-online.com/efxapi/EFX_dll/...Mkv&ID=11527627

Dies macht deutlich, dass Actua für richtige Übernahmen schlicht kein Geld hat, weil sie es zwingend brauchen um ihr marodes Geschäft zu stabilisieren.

While revenue growth was flattened, BOLT's bookings are pacing much higher. For the quarter, we added 400,000 of ARR from an existing customer and 300,000 in one time bookings. This brings year-to-date ARR bookings to over $3 million, which we should start recognizing as revenue in Q4. I should point out this is dramatically ahead of where we were a year ago, which was in the low six-figure bookings for the first half.

We finished the quarter with 59,700 users on the platform, up from 56,000 at the beginning of the year. Additionally, the opportunities of qualified risk going through the platform grew to 3 million in the quarter, up from 2.5 million in Q1. This resulted in $1.5 billion of premiums on the platform, up from $1.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.

Finally, carrier connections are up over 5,300 from roughly 5,100 in Q1, but now 99 insurance carriers integrated into the platform. As a result of the platform basically being built out and strong bookings growth we've seen year-to-date, the Company's making excellent progress for being operating cash flow positive much sooner than we previously forecasted.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...a-earnings-conference-154356723.html
 

Govdlivery, Foliodynamix und VelocityEHS haben eh' ein positiven operativen Cash Flow, wie Du den Übersichten zu diesen Beteiligungen in der letzten Presentation entnehmen kannst:

http://www.actua.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Q2-slides-Final.pdf  

Nichts leichter als das.

Hypoport wird etwa 11,5 Mio Konzernergebnis im 2.Halbjahr erzielen.
Plus 2,5 Mio Abschreibungen ergibt das etwa 14 Mio cash earning
Da aus dem working capital sich der negative Effekt des 1.Halbjahres (fast 7 Mio) eher in die andere Richtung bewegen dürfte, erwarte ich mindestens 17 Mio € OCF.

Insgesamt dann im Gesamtjahr mindestens 23 Mio OCF.


Nimmt man working capital Effekte komplett raus, berechnet also die cash earnings, kommt Hypoport auf etwa 28 Mio € Cashflow.  

durch 4 Mill. Gratisaktien. Libuda lässt immer meine Beiträge wegmoderiern, dabei steht es hier schwarz auf weiß im Quartalsbericht unter der Rubrik Managementvergütung.

http://icge.ir.edgar-online.com/efxapi/EFX_dll/...SaS&ID=11527627

Muss man nur mal lesen, anstatt Beiträge wegmoderieren zu lassen.

bei Govdelivery binnen eines Jahres

GovDelivery grew revenues 20% in the second quarter compared to Q2 2015 and is on plan for the year. The Companying closed 34 deals in the second quarter, over 25% of which were up sales to existing customers. Bookings for the quarter grew 25% over Q2 2015, with the Company closing 30% more recurring revenue year-to-date compared to year-to-date 2015. The pipeline remains strong and we remain on track for our best year ever in terms of growth and recurring revenue contracts. GoveDelivery now has 133 million citizens subscribing to the platform; up from 90 million in Q2 one year ago, further strengthening the moat.

Last but not least, we kicked off the third quarter with two important up sells that demonstrate the power and breadth of the GoveDelivery technology suite. These bookings totaled more than $1 million in new ARR with two large federal clients. The first contract leverages the Company's digital engagement services team and our interactive texting capability to communicate on a major public health issue, and increased the ARR with that account by more than 250%.

The second contract significantly expanded the customer's utilization of the platform; adding open data, volume and support services, increasing our second largest client by 40% on an annual contract basis.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...a-earnings-conference-154356723.html