Der USA Bären-Thread
Bear Stearns verbucht Gewinneinbruch - Aktie fällt
Do Sep 20, 2007 3:28 MESZ135
ew York (Reuters) - Die Hypothekenkrise hat der US-Investmentbank Bear Stearns in den vergangenen drei Monaten einen Gewinneinbruch beschert. Das Institut verdiente nach Angaben vom Donnerstag netto mit 171,3 Millionen Dollar gut 60 Prozent weniger als vor einem Jahr. Damit liefen die Geschäfte deutlich schlechter als an der Wall Street erwartet: Pro Aktie belief sich der Gewinn auf 1,16 Dollar, Analysten hatten im Schnitt mit 1,78 Dollar gerechnet. Die Einnahmen fielen im dritten Geschäftsquartal um 38 Prozent auf 1,3 Milliarden Dollar. Die Bear-Stearns-Aktie reagierte vorbörslich mit einem Kursverlust von drei Prozent auf die Geschäftszahlen.
http://de.today.reuters.com/
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Ich bin der Überzeugung, dass wir dieses Jahr noch Zinssenkungen sehen werden. Ich sprach mal von 100 Basispunkten bis Weihnachten. Ich würde sogar einen Leitzins von unter 4% bis Mitte 2008 als absolut realistisch ansehen. Das bedeutet Europreise von über 1,45 $. Was das alles an Seiteneffekten produzieren wird kann ich im gesamten Ausmaß noch nicht fassen. Ich hätte deshalb nicht den Mut groß $ einzukaufen. Bin allerdings auch kein Devisenspekulant. Währungen waren mir immer zu undurchsichtig.
This is particularly true in the case of China. China's foreign exchange reserves are now approaching the trillion and a half dollar level, and this massive wad of cash is mostly kept as US dollars. China has earned this treasure through being the gleaming supermall for the shop-till-you-drop obsession that has swept the US, and to a lesser extent the rest of the Western world, this decade.What Ben Bernanke is saying with his sharp interest rate cuts, and what the nation is affirming its approval of with the orgiastic stock market response that followed, is that it continues to hold no other value higher than the pleasure to be attained through its own excess consumption. In depreciating the value of the currency it uses to pay China for its goods, the US is telling China that it has no intention of paying China the full value for what it buys from it; that would be unacceptable, it would mean that there would be less money to buy even more stuff.Of course, China does not have to continue to put up with this. It could stop accepting the funny money dollars, the depreciating greenbacks with Mickey Mouse's picture on the face instead of George Washington's. China could convert its foreign exchange reserves into other currencies by selling its dollars. As this would severely reduce the demand for US Treasuries in which China parks its reserves, US interest rates would have to rise sharply to re-attract the securities demand lost from China, and there would be little or nothing that Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, President George W Bush, or even the US's first infallible-by-decree army general staff officer, the Blessed Holy Father General St David Petraeus, could do about it.
This would not be an easy thing for China to do, so the US feels China will not do it. If China actually did try to publicly sell all or a large part of its dollar portfolio the prices of the dollar assets remaining in the portfolio would undoubtedly fall sharply; China could lose a lot more than it gained. Still, Bernanke has just told China that, come hell or high water, he fully intends to filch away the value of their reserves. Maybe China could decide that it's a choice between losing a lot of money, fast, by selling its dollars, or losing a lot more, slowly, by keeping its dollars.
Like pulling off a Band-Aid, it probably hurts less to do it fast.Or, China could do it smart, slow and gradual; that's the way China likes to manage change. There are some indications that this is exactly what is happening. From a level of over $160 billion a year in 2006, Tuesday's US Treasury Department's Treasury International Capital (TIC) report, released a few hours before the Fed meeting and so thus totally ignored, showed that foreign (like the Chinese central bank) buying of US government securities actually turned negative in July. ...
China probably is already diversifying away from the US dollar, but among all the cacophonous noise of the glorious roiling tsunami of inanity that is US public life, the actual signal information is being missed. There were a few disquieting responses to the Fed move. Crude oil continued its recent record breaking rise, topping $82 a barrel. This market knows that, unlike China, the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) long ago made clear that they would not accept depreciating dollars in exchange for their non-renewable export assets; oil prices go up as the US dollar goes down. China seems to be learning from OPEC's example.
The most interesting aspect of Tuesday's market responses to the Fed cuts may be the most massively under-reported - the fact that the only one of the Dow 30 stocks that did not rally on the news was, curiously enough, Boeing....I see the Boeing stock price divergence as more of an indication that, with Boeing so dependent on Chinese airline demand, the company may be in big trouble if China really does act to reduce its economic relationship and dependence on the US. there will probably be more cuts at the next Fed meeting in late October should there be further bad subprime or economic news, which there undoubtedly will be.
How long will the nation get away with the debasement of its own currency and the defrauding of its lenders? I have no idea. I find it most amazing that, in its actions, the nation is ignoring the very principle at the heart of the subprime crisis the Federal Reserve's actions are trying to remedy. To their own misery, the subprime borrowers have learnt the lesson that the nation has yet to learn. You can't forever live in a house, or in a consumer lifestyle, that you cannot afford.
Julian Delasantellis is a management consultant, private investor and educator in international business in the US state of Washington. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/II20Dj02.html
The Saudi central bank said today that it would take "appropriate measures" to halt huge capital inflows into the country, but analysts say this policy is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to the collapse of the dollar peg.
As a close ally of the US, Riyadh has so far tried to stick to the peg, but the link is now destabilising its own economy.There is now a growing danger that global investors will start to shun the US bond markets. The latest US government data on foreign holdings released this week show a collapse in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, with outright net sales of US Treasuries.
The danger is that this could now accelerate as the yield gap between the United States and the rest of the world narrows rapidly, leaving America starved of foreign capital flows needed to cover its current account deficit - expected to reach $850bn this year, or 6.5pc of GDP.Mr Redeker said foreign investors have been gradually pulling out of the long-term US debt markets, leaving the dollar dependent on short-term funding. Foreigners have funded 25pc to 30pc of America's credit and short-term paper markets over the last two years.
"They were willing to provide the money when rates were paying nicely, but why bear the risk in these dramatically changed circumstances? We think that a fall in dollar to $1.50 against the euro is not out of the question at all by the first quarter of 2008," he said.
"This is nothing like the situation in 1998 when the crisis was in Asia, but the US was booming. This time the US itself is the problem," he said.
Mr Redeker said the biggest danger for the dollar is that falling US rates will at some point trigger a reversal yen "carry trade", causing massive flows from the US back to Japan.
Jim Rogers, the commodity king and former partner of George Soros, said the Federal Reserve was playing with fire by cutting rates so aggressively at a time when the dollar was already under pressure.
The risk is that flight from US bonds could push up the long-term yields that form the base price of credit for most mortgages, thus driving the property market into even deeper crisis.....
For Saudi Arabia, the dollar peg has clearly become a liability. Inflation has risen to 4pc and the M3 broad money supply is surging at 22pc.
The pressures are even worse in other parts of the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates now faces inflation of 9.3pc, a 20-year high. In Qatar it has reached 13pc.
Kuwait became the first of the oil sheikhdoms to break its dollar peg in May, a move that has begun to rein in rampant money supply growth.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/.../money/2007/09/19/bcnsaudi119.xml
Im Falle von China ist das sicherlich der Preis, den das Land zu zahlen bereit ist/war, um den Fuß in die Tür den Clubs der mächtigsten Wirtschaftsnationen zu bekommen. Doch je stärker sich China fühlt, desto unabhängiger und selbstbewußter wird es agieren. Die Abkopplung vom Dollar wird anscheinend langsam aber sicher vollzogen, mehrere Nachrichten in letzter Zeit legen das nahe. Kuweit hat sich z.B. auch schon abgekoppelt.
Die Abkopplung passiert aus den im Artikeln genannten Gründen vorsichtig und vielleicht spekulieren die Chinesen auch auf ein Comeback des Dollars irgendwann.
Alles mit fernöstlicher Weisheit eingefädelt, mein Respekt. Sollt China also irgendwann Taiwan überfallen wird es sich ein amerikanischer Präsident zweimal überlegen ob er eingreift und einen Dollarcrash riskiert oder lieber zuschaut und den Dollar stabil hält.
Die Chinesen sind sicher nicht süchtig nach USD, aber ihnen bleibt nichts anderes übrig. Wer vor lauter Kraft kaum Laufen kann muss eben nehmen was kommt.
Leute, sammelt cash für den China-Crash! Aber seid nicht gierig, es kann noch dauern!!!
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Und ich sehe es immernoch anderes herum: Die Amis im Konsumrausch sind gierig nach Billigimporten aus China. Und die Chinesen wußten schlicht und ergreifend nicht wohin mit der ganzen Kohle.
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Es ist keine Leistung (Wer vor lauter Kraft kaum Laufen kann ... ) hochsubventionierte Waren zu exportieren. In den chinesischen Preisen fehlen die Sozial, Struktur-, Umwelt- und sogar einen Anteil der Energiekosten. Würden wir so arbeiten würde unsere Exportware weniger als die Hälfte kosten. Das hält die chinesische Volkswirtschaft auch nur noch eine begrenzte Zeit aus. Es wird also nicht nur der Aktienmarkt platzen. Allerdings reicht das schon um massenhaft Chinesen ins Elend zu treiben.
Mal schnell in die Staaten zum Einkaufen...
mfg nf
edcad0920pari.gif
es wirklich zu einer Krise kommen, werden im darauf folgenden Wiederaufbau die Karten komplett neu gemischt. Ob da der Dollar - oder irgend eine andere Währung - noch etwas wert sind, ist absolut uninteressant. Wichtig hingegen ist, wer bei Wiederaufbau als erstes losspurten kann. Und das ist eben das Land, welches die Fabriken besitzt.
Die Chinesen agieren nicht nur intelligent, sondern auch noch mit einer frappierenden Weitsicht. Die denken sozusagen in Dekaden. Das hingegen fehlt den Amerikanern völlig. Europäer hingegen denken zumindest auf einige Jahre im voraus. Was auch schonmal nicht schlecht ist. Und wie ich schon öfters schrieb, stellt Euch einfach mal die USA OHNE Dollar vor. Und dann stellt Euch die Armut dort vor, wenn man wieder Ware gegen Ware liefern müsste. Was hat man denn real noch zu bieten? Die ganzen Bankhäuser, Anwälte, Militärs und ein Großteil der sogenannten Dienstleister wären mit einem Schlag überflüssig. Sicherlich würde man es wieder packen, aber vorher wäre harte Arbeit angesagt.
Ja, es steht ein Wechsel bevor. Nicht heute, nicht morgen. Aber das jüdische System des "Handeln in Geld" ohne das auch nur irgendeine reale Wertschöpfung mehr dahinter steht, wird auf Dauer nicht überleben. Immer mehr Länder koppeln sich ab. Noch vorsichtig, da man selbst vor Jahren in die "Dollarfalle" getappt ist. Und nun nicht mehr so einfach rauskommt. Aber bei Neuanlagen wandert das Geld jetzt schon massiv in andere Währungen. Und nur der Umstand, das sich alle belauern und beim kleinsten Anzeichen das der "Andere" aus den Dollar raus will sofort gnadenlos selbst schmeißen würde, hält das ganze System noch oben.
Vielleicht hat man sich auch hinter den Kulissen schon geeinigt. Und behält den Dollar, um nicht mit einem Schlag riesige Verluste zu erleiden. Und nur bei Neuanlagen geht man woanders hin - und mit ein paar Brosamen wird der Dollar leicht abgefedert nach unten durchgereicht. Für möglich halte ich diese Variante. Denn an einem Dollarcrash dürfte niemand Interesse haben. Wenn aber der Dollar beständig an Wert verliert ohne zu crashen, verliert auch Niemand Sein Gesicht. Und das ist bei Asiaten besonders wichtig...
Wertzuwachs
Nur soviel: Wo war die Weisheit der Chinesen die letzten 200 Jahre? Wenn was zusammen kracht, dann in China. Die bringen das immer mindestens 2 x in 100 Jahren fertig. Sind demnächst fällig.
Eine Beantwortung wird nicht erwartet.
Dow Jones: 13.764,59 Punkte
Die US Indizes haben den Handel heute bereits mit leichten Abgaben eröffnet und hielten sich im weiteren Handelsverlauf in relativ enger Handelsspanne. Dabei kam es zu einer Ausdehnung der gestern in den letzten Handelsstunden begonnenen bisher bullisch zu wertenden Korrektur. Der Nasdaq kippt dabei um 0,5% auf 2654 Punkte zurück. Auch im Dow Jones kommt es zu einem Rückfall, die bei 13691 Punkten liegende wichtige Unterstützung wird aber noch nicht erreicht. Ein Verlust heute von 0,4% auf 13767 Punkte.
Belastet wurde der Markt dabei vor allem durch den Finance- und Versorgersektor, der Ölsektor zeigte Stärke. Äußerst stark mit einem Anstieg um 4,5% war aber bei fortgesetzter Rallye in Gold der Goldsektor. Bei AT&T setzte sich die Rallye heute nach dem Anstieg der Vortage um weitere1,1% fort, als Verlierer im Dow Jones musste Home Depot 2,4% abgeben. Google konnte die Rallye der Vortage als einer der Gewinner im Nasdaq 100 klar um 1,2% fortsetzen, bei Adobe (-2,3% und Genzyme (-2,0% kam es hingegen zu Verlusten.
http://www.finanznachrichten.de/...ichten-2007-09/artikel-9066471.asp
Warren Buffett to CNBC: "I Don't Care" If the Fed Cuts Rates
„Das Wichtigste ist, Aktien zu einem angemessenen Preis zu kaufen. Jeder, der das Kaufen oder Verkaufen von Aktien von den Entscheidungen der Fed abhängig macht, wird keine sonderlich große finanzielle Zukunft vor sich haben. Wer meint, er müsse nach den Signalen der Fed tanzen, der macht seinen Broker reich, aber garantiert nicht sich selbst.“
P.S.: Ich sorge mich seit 60 Jahren täglich um das Phänomen der Inflation ….
aber, der Dollars wird mit der Zeit weiter an Kaufkraft verlieren.
Becky Quick: We have to ask you about the news of the day and the market. Everyone waiting to see what the Federal Reserve will do today. Do you think the Fed will cut 25 or 50 basis points today?
Warren Buffett: (Laughs strongly.) I represent a different view, maybe, than your other viewers. I don't think it makes any difference whatsoever to an investor in stocks what they do today. I don't care, I wouldn't care whether they raise the rate in terms of what I would do in stocks. If I knew exactly what they were going to do, I would not change a buy or a sell order that I have in.
You know, I might mention that when Dave Dodd came into my partnership with relatively small funds, nobody knew what the Fed was doing that day, or a week earlier or the week after.
The important thing in stocks is to buy a stock in a good business at a reasonable price. Anybody that is buying or selling stocks based on what the Fed is doing, or what they think they're going to do at their next meeting, I think is destined to not having a great financial future. It really doesn't have anything to do with the value of good companies 3, 5 years from now. People who think they can dance in and out based on Fed signals, I think, they're going to make their brokers rich, but they're not going to make themselves rich.
BQ: Although, with everything happening with the credit crunch, we've certainly seen a lot of stocks come sharply down in price in terms of what we're seeing in the housing industry. Is that an area you've been looking at as a value investor?
WB: Well, I look at all businesses, Becky, and that's about all you'll get out of me.
BQ: Let me push you one more time. You talk about you woundn't necessarily invest in stocks based on what the Fed does today, but what about the dollar? You've had bets against the dollar?
WB: Well, again, that would not be affected by what the Fed does today. That's affected by more fundamental problems in terms of the huge trade imbalance. Just a week or two ago, Bernanke said that the present current account deficit is unsustainable. And Greenspan said that 3 or 4 years ago. But the truth is, it goes on. So that's what counts in terms of the value of the dollar over time. Again, it will not depend on what the Fed does at this meeting or the next meeting or the meeting after that.
BQ: What do you think the markets look like right now just in terms of the credit crunch? Is that something you think is continuing to spread? Are things worse that we imagined or are they better than we imagined?
WB: Well, I don't know the answer to that. That has nothing to do with what stocks we buy. What has to do with the stocks we buy is what we think about the businesses and what they're selling for. And the less they sell for, the better I like it. Anytime anything gets cheaper, I like it better than I did the day before. (Laughs.)
BQ: I know you're not a Fed Governor, but there are a lot of people who are worried about inflation, especially watching oil prices as they've edged above $80, even above $81, recently. Is there a point at which you start worrying about inflation?
WB: I've worried about inflation every day since I learned about the phenomenon, 60 years ago. (Laughs.) It's always a danger, always a danger. It's never gone. It's always in remission, and question is how well do you do over time controlling it. But, the purchasing power of the dollar will go down over time.
BQ: And just in terms of oil prices above $80, do you think that's a concern for the economy or has it gotten to the point where it makes up a lesser and lesser part of our economy?
WB: Anything that you import, and we import maybe 11 million barrels a day of oil, so every time it goes up a dollar that's $11 million that goes out of the American economy that goes to somebody else around the world. And so, it's a tax on ... in effect, a higher oil price is a tax on the American economy. And that tax is not paid to the American government, it's paid to various entities around the world. So, it's always a negative. But, ah, I'll take a negative. We had higher prices than this adjusted (for inflation) 25 years ago. So, the economy can take it but it is a tax, and it comes right out of the American consumer's pocket and goes into the purchasing power of somebody in the Middle East.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20837495
abfedern und braucht Zahlen nicht so gravierend zu manipulieren.
Viel schwerer wiegt aber der Vertrauensverlust.
Im übrigen hat Wertzuwachs Recht, der von Juden betriebene Handel in Geld hat einen Abtraktionsgrad erreicht, der von der Realwirtschaft abgekoppelt ist.
Die ablenkenden wie abenteuerlichen "was interessiert mich mein Geschwätz von gestern " Thesen eines gewissen Malkos, erhärten nur diese Aussage.
Vor einem Jahr war es ein umfallender Sack Reis in China, nunmehr brechen die chinesischen Börsen weg. Aha.
Und die schlimmen Tommies sind unseriöser als die aufrechten Amerikaner. Lach, lach.
Wo werden denn die konzertierten Geldmanipulationen der Märkte initialisiert ?
Wer sind diese Leute, woher kommen sie, warum ist das Timing der "Aktionen" vor Verfallsterminen.
Alles purer Zufall. Nicht wahr ?
vielleicht steigen sie heute noch zusammen in die Kiste.
"Ja die Leute hatten halt Pech, daß die Zinsen gestiegen sind".
Daß Zinsen bei 0.25 nur noch schwerlich steigen können, hat er wohl bei seinem
BWL Studium nicht mitbekommen, Wenn ich so einen abgefeimten Geldsack
erlebe, bekomme ich nen dicken Hals. (Ist schon gut ,daß Waffen nicht frei verkäuflich sind). Zur IKB hat er sich auch geäußert . Grins. Leider hat die Illner keine Ahnung. wie man Ihn zum Glühen bringt. Oder halt abgesprochener Inhalt.
Habe abgeschaltet. Illners Weichspülprogramm.
Apropos: seit wann ist "Handel mit Geld" jüdisch!? Tststs...
"Aber das jüdische System des "Handeln in Geld" ohne das auch nur irgendeine reale Wertschöpfung mehr dahinter steht, wird auf Dauer nicht überleben."
Finde den Teil mit dem Bezug aufs Jüdische auch krass.
Handeln mit Geld tut IHR VERDAMMT NOCHMAL ALLE, wenn ihr Termingeschäfte eingeht.
lol.
Seid Ihr alle Juden?
Also ich net...
Hier nun das aktuelle Bild und das Augustbild als Vergleich darunter.
Der untere mittelfristige Chart(IntermediateTerm) hätte zwar noch ein bischen Luft nach oben aber im kurzfristigen Fenster ist das Potental erstmal ausgeschöpft und auch der gleitende Durchschnitt(rot) ist wieder im neutralen positiven Bereich.
Fazit:Für einen Korrektur oder Bärenmarkt im S&P ist wieder Abwärts/Verkaufspotential gegeben im Gegensatz zur Augustmitte.Auch wenn man im Moment nur eine Abwärtskorrektur im S&P für die nächsten Tage favorisieren kann gilt immer noch ein mögliches Bärenmarktszenario solange kein neues Jahreshoch kommt.mM
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unbenannt[01].png (verkleinert auf 84%)
September 20, 2007
Ben Bernanke has taken a close look at the economy and doesn’t like what he sees. That is the only explanation for the 50 basis-point cut in both the discount rate and fed funds rate. Previously the Chairman made it clear that, in a change of policy from the Greenspan regime, the FOMC was using the discount rate to provide funds to the seized-up credit markets, intending to use a fed funds rate cut only if the financial market turmoil was spreading to the real economy. The fact that they not only cut the rate, but did so by 50 points indicates that the Fed takes the possibility of recession very seriously, as indeed they should.
As we’ve written previously, most of the indicators we look at indicate the probability of a hard landing or recession and the Fed is privy to the same facts and much more, although, as usual, they have been slow to pick up the hints. August housing starts fell 2.6% to the lowest level since June 1995. Single family starts were even worse, declining 7.1% to the lowest level since April 1992. The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Index dropped to 20 equaling the record low reading of January 1991. Nationally, 3.56% of mortgages were at least 30 days past due in August, a jump of 1.5 points since late 2005. Half of the increase has occurred in the last three months alone, and delinquencies were up in all 50 states. The sharp rise is a forerunner to increased foreclosures, which are likely to be widespread.
Yale economist Robert Shiller stated that "The collapse of home prices might turn out to be the most severe since the great depression." Alan Greenspan said that a double-digit decline in home prices would not be surprising, a sentiment echoed by an increasingly wide array of economists. Such a decline, the most in 70 years, would most likely have an economic impact far greater than the meltdown in the subprime mortgage market.
The meltdown in housing values will also far exceed the previous meltdown in the dot-coms earlier in the decade and with much greater impact. The Center for Responsible Lending predicts that foreclosures on subprime loans will lead to cumulative losses of $164 billion in home equity, while investment banks have estimated that the costs to financial institutions could amount to over $300 billion. Various experts testifying at a congressional hearing estimated that a 15% decline in house prices could wipe out $3 trillion of household net worth. US residential real estate has an estimated total value of about $21 trillion, the largest component of the wealth of most households.
The housing malaise is spreading to the rest of the economy. The growth rate in employment has been declining for more than a year and the number of jobs actually fell in August even with the substantial addition of fictitious jobs from the birth/death adjustment. Non-auto retail sales were down in August. The National Retail Federation predicted a rise in total holiday sales of only 4% for November and December, the slowest since 2002, blaming slow job growth, chaotic credit conditions and falling house prices. FedEx, a key economic barometer, slashed their earnings forecast as a result of financial market volatility, high energy costs and weakness in housing. Credit Suisse analysts’ transportation industry channel checks showed that the economy "is in the midst of a domestic freight recession."
Corporations, too, are not immune to the weakening economy. Standard & Poor’s predicted that a new wave of business failures would hit corporations. The firm said that 75 junk-rated companies are at high risk of defaulting over the next 15 months as a credit squeeze impacts weak, highly-leveraged companies. Semiconductor equipment book-to-bill ratios dropped to 0.80 in August, the lowest level in two years. Bookings are down 19.4% from a year earlier. Moody’s Economy.com said that their index showed the probability of recession jumping to 40% in August, the highest since 2001.
Given the dire economic outlook, we believe the fed rate cut will not stop the economy from a hard landing or recession and that stocks will decline sharply as they did after the first rate cut on Janauary 3, 2001. On that day the S&P 500 jumped 5% and Nasdaq an astounding 14% (no typo). Over the next 21 months the S&P plunged 43% while Nasdaq did far worse. The fact is that central bank rate cuts are not much help during the bursting of a major asset bubble. This was the case in the US following 1929, Japan following 1989 and the US from 2000 to 2002. In each case inflation was low during the bubble, thereby allowing central banks to let asset values soar with little response. The total value of US houses is far greater than the value of technology stocks in 2000, and ownership is much more widespread. The impact of bursting housing values is therefore likely to be far more serious and widespread both for the economy and the market. Furthermore, in the short time since the rate cut the 10-year Treasury bond yield has jumped 17 basis points, the TIPS spread has widened, the dollar has dropped and gold has soared. It seems that for the first time in many years the bond vigilantes are back in business and threaten to undo some of the short-term rate cuts.
As we have been saying for some time, the Fed has progressively been painting itself into a corner and now has very little room to maneuver. It is faced with potential debt deflation on the one hand and inflating its way out on the other. For now the Fed has chosen to try to avoid the debt deflation, but in an indication of their ambivalence, avoided including a risk assessment statement in their release following the meeting. In our view the Fed is in a box that even Houdini would have trouble escaping.
Although former Fed Chairman Greenspan bears a great deal of responsibility for the current mess, in a moment of clarity at last year’s Jackson Hole conference he stated "Thus this vast increase in the market value of asset claims is in part the indirect result of investors accepting lower compensation for risk. Such an increase in market value is too often viewed by market participants as structural and permanent. To some extent, those higher values may be reflecting the increased flexibility and resilience of our economy, but what they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear. Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes the liquidation of debt that supported higher asset prices. THIS IS THE REASON THAT HISTORY HAS NOT DEALT KINDLY WITH THE AFTERMATH OF PROTRACTED PERIODS OF LOW RISK PREMIUMS." (Caps are ours).
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frankfurt.com/pip/dispatch/de/listcontent/private_investors/aktuelles/sentiment_analysen/Analysis/sentiment_2007/dax_sentiment_070919.htm