Aixtron purpose of this thread

Hi,

does anybody have a good reason for the share price development over the past couple of days? It went into the different direction I thought it would go..

Anything from peers or similar? Negative read from Trump's announcement on the enlarged Huawei ban -> I heard that many people see this as a negative for STM, Infineon etc but it shouldnt hurt Aixtron??

Also USD has strengthened again which should be positive for Aixtron. Plus the Cree news (@rosskata I have high conviction that they are only Aixtron customer).

Thanks for any input!
Fel  

Engineers in Raleigh (NC) and Dallas (Texas).  Raleigh is where CREE is located.  My guess for Dallas is II-VI's Sherman MOCVD operation located north of Dallas where the company produces VCSEL's mainly for Apple.  Santa Clara is Aixtron's US HQ.

This is from an ad. in US (Glassdoor).  You could find the same ad. on Aixtron's web site but Aixtron left the locations out.
.................................................
AIXTRON SE
3.1
Field Process Engineer (w/m/d)
United States

Located in Raleigh (NC), Santa Clara (CA) or Dallas (TX)

AIXTRON SE is a manufacturer of systems for the semiconductor industry. We are the recognised technological leader for complex deposition processes in the field of compound semiconductors and nanomaterials...  

Fel, I have no explanation for Friday’s share prive move…an impressive 1.5million shares closing auction was in line with my expectation of 2-3 daily trading turnovers, a 4 to 5% share reaction matched my expecation as well, but obviously I mixed up whether it would be a “+” or a “-“. Any "technical" effect (Delivery Hero hasn't outperformed either last week)? The shares basically gave up the gains from 13 August when it was announced that Wirecard would leave the DAX. Haven’t seen any other news from peers, analysts, etc.  

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/...%99s-900-GaN-FET-Production

This little GaN-on-Si US company is a customer of Aixtron:
https://www.aixtron.com/en/investors/...0system%20from%20AIXTRON_n439  

https://www.dgap.de/dgap/News/dgap_media/...eichfoerm/?newsID=1391341

Aktie von Siltronic gleich mal 3,3% im Plus - das sollten andere Kunden verinnerlichen!  (muss ich das jetzt noch als Ironie kennzeichnen?)

 

Hi Joss,

der Siltronic Kurs steigt weil die Credit Suisse die Empfehlung auf "Outperform" hochgenommen hat mit Kursziel 100 Euro. Der ist bestimmt nicht gestiegen weil die jetzt ein Aixtron Produkt gekauft haben.

Warum es keinen Einfluss auf den Aixtron Kurs hat? Das ist sicherlich eine schöne (Marketing-) Meldung, aber wohl auch nur ein einstelliger Mio-Umsatz - und irgendwoher müssen ja die Umsätze kommen wenn Aixtron seine Guidance erreichen will. Sprich: solche Meldungen bzw. solche Umsätze sind schon in den Erwartungen drin mE.

Gruß / regards :-),
dlg.  

likely small for Aixtron.  However, It is interesting that this small unknown startup possesses  such attractive integrated GaN-on-Si technology.    

This presentation tells a good  GaN  power semiconductor story:

https://www.transphormusa.com/wp-content/uploads/...n_FINAL-1-002.pdf

page 20 says 2-3 epi orders coming using the Navy contract which is $18.5m over three years announced in July 2019.  We could assume with confidence the orders are Aixtron G5.  P 19 shows the picture of an Aixtron G5.

https://www.transphormusa.com/en/news/...polar-epiwafer-onr-contract/

 

I think so, but only 2-3 units.
Regards
CWL  

Hi all,

a VERY interesting article on Apple in my view, at least 75m new 5G iPhones to be shipped in H2-20 plus new Apple watch and other products.

The apple watch is unlikely to feature microLed in my view given the very short lead time.

At least one conclusion should be that the high volume will lead to strong VCSEL capacity utilisation in H2, right?

Any other thoughts?

Link: https://www.reuters.com/article/...-this-year-bloomberg-idUSKBN25S3SN

Regards,
Fel  

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/...chicksal-aixtron-faellt

 

Hi all,
a highly interesting report from Bloomberg which should be very relevant for Aixtron..

Regards,
Fel

China Said to Plan Broad Chip Sector Support to Fight Trump (2)
2020-09-03 09:04:58.636 GMT


By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- China is planning a sweeping set of new
government policies to develop its domestic semiconductor
industry and counter Trump administration restrictions,
conferring the same kind of priority on the effort it accorded
to building its atomic capability, according to people with
knowledge of the matter.
Beijing is preparing broad support for so-called third-
generation semiconductors for the five years through 2025, said
the people, asking not to be identified discussing government
deliberations. A suite of measures to bolster research,
education and financing for the industry has been added to a
draft of the country’s 14th five-year plan, which will be
presented to the country’s top leaders in October, the people
said.
China’s top leaders will gather next month to lay out their
economic strategy for the next half decade, including efforts to
ramp up domestic consumption and make critical technology at
home. President Xi Jinping has pledged an estimated $1.4
trillion through 2025 for technologies ranging from wireless
networks to artificial intelligence. Semiconductors are
fundamental to virtually every component of China’s technology
ambitions -- and an increasingly aggressive Trump administration
threatens to cut off their supply from abroad.
“The Chinese leadership realizes that semiconductors
underpin all advanced technologies, and that it can no longer
dependably rely on American supplies,” said Dan Wang, technology
analyst at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics. “In the face of
stricter U.S. restrictions on chip access, China’s response can
only be to keep pushing its own industry to develop.”
Shares in several major Chinese chipmakers gained. Shanghai
Fudan Microelectronics Group Co. finished 4.3% higher in Hong
Kong. On mainland bourses, Will Semiconductor Ltd. -- the second
most valuable listed Chinese chip firm -- rose almost 10%.
Xiamen Changelight Co. closed 14% up while Focus Lightings Tech
Co. jumped 5.6%.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which
is responsible for drafting the tech-related goals, did not
reply to a request for comment.
China Still Buying $300 Billion of Chips From U.S.,
Elsewhere
China imports more than $300 billion worth of integrated
circuits each year and its semiconductor developers rely on
U.S.-made chip design tools and patents, as well as critical
manufacturing technologies from U.S. allies. But deteriorating
ties between Beijing and Washington have made it increasingly
difficult for Chinese companies to source components and
chipmaking technologies from overseas.
The U.S. government has blacklisted dozens of China’s tech
companies so they can’t buy American parts, and slapped bans on
ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok and Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s WeChat. In
the case of technology giant Huawei Technologies Co., the Trump
administration sanctioned the company and pressed allies to ban
the company’s equipment from their telecom networks.
This month, Huawei, the country’s largest handset maker,
will even lose access to chips from the likes of Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. under new American regulations
that prohibit suppliers anywhere in the world from working with
the company if those suppliers use American equipment. The
tighter rules have raised the urgency of building domestic
alternatives in Beijing.
Third-generation semiconductors are mainly chipsets made of
materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride. They can
operate at high frequency and in higher power and temperature
environments, and are widely used in fifth-generation radio
frequency chips, military-grade radars and electric vehicles.
Read more: China’s Chip Executives Worry They’re Next on
U.S. Hit List
Since no single country now dominates the fledgling, third-
generation technology, China’s gamble is its corporations can
compete if they accelerate research into the field now. Global
leaders such as U.S.-based CREE Inc. and Japan’s Sumitomo
Electric Industries Ltd. are just beginning to grow this
business, while Chinese tech giants such as Sanan
Optoelectronics Co. Ltd. and state-owned China Electronics
Technology Group Corp. have made inroads on third-generation
chipsets.
The country’s other chipmakers, which include Semiconductor
Manufacturing International Corp., Will Semiconductor Ltd. and
National Silicon Industry Group Co., may benefit more broadly
from the state support.
“This is a sector about to see explosive growth,” Alan
Zhou, managing partner of Fujian-based chip investment fund An
Xin Capital Co., told an industry forum last week. Because of
China’s increasing demand and investment, this is an area that
could create a “world-class Chinese chip giant.”  

Krasse Warnung von Ciena, die auf einigen Tech-Werten gerade lastet. Nicht ganz auf Aixtron übertragbar, aber hilft dem Sentiment sicherlich auch nicht. Aktie gerade -25%.  

Die Entwicklung heute mit NASDAQ -4% ist eindeutig eine Sektor Rotation, alle bisherigen outperformed (Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Shopify etc) verlieren stark, dafür gewonnen die underperformer! Ein super Beispiel ist hello fresh -10% (Corona Gewinner) aber dafür Lufthansa +3%...

Das wird dann schön auf den TecDax und Aixtron etc. Übertragen

mE ist das natürlich kompletter Käse, weil Q3 und Q4 bärenstarke Zahlen bringen werden!

Also Banane rein und schonmal das WE einläuten (mit einem Aixport @joss?; was gibts neues von der Feuerwehr?)

Grüße!  

Rollercoaster today...from +7% to -15%, now at -6%.

Reads OKish from a Business perspective:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/...st-half-928504.html  

Good spot @dlg!

Key highlights for me are Wireless division growing by +50% yoy in H1. They state "driven by 5G handset launch". This is very much in line with the announced Apple 5G iPhone launch that will be this autumn (I think Oct/Nov). The results show that the supply chain started to ramp-up which already started in Q1 when they said "Q1 revenues were slightly ahead of internal expectations and trading in Q2 to date has been strong in both the Wireless and Photonics Business Units".

IQE Photonics was also back to decent growth at +22% driven by 3D sensing content gain, laser for communication and aerospace & military.

Capex is close to 0 now though as capacity has been built out. So we shouldnt expect much for Aixtron in 2020.

Apple announced a media event for 15.09., I hope they say something about Apple Watch with Micro LED Screen... lets see.


@CWL, baggo, dlg and all others: Did you find/hear/see anything new on QD-OLED from any of your sources?

Regards,
Fel  

https://www.aachener-zeitung.de/wirtschaft/...oronavirus_aid-53057293

Artikel muss leider gekauft werden.  

Diese Sätze finde ich interessant:

"Die Nachfrage ist sehr stark gestiegen", sagt Thomas Korst, Senior Produkt Manager bei Aixtron.
Vor allem in Korea und China. Aber auch im Rest von Asien, sei das Interesse groß.

In Deutschland führe man bereits Gespräche mit großen Herstellern.
"Seit Beginn der Pandemie haben wir mehr Maschinen verkauft
als in den vergangenen zwei Jahren" sagt Korst

ob es stimmt mit werden wir spätestens bei  Q3-Zahlen sehen.

 

Das neue Werk in Villach von Infineon soll bis Ende 2021 mit der Volumenfertigung beginnen.
Ich rechne stark damit,  dass Infineon einer der deutschen Hersteller ist,  der damit gemeint war mit dem Gespräche geführt werden.
Link zum Thema Elektromobilität:
https://industriemagazin.at/a/...han-zizala-kein-tritt-auf-die-bremse

Die gesamte Automobilbrache zeigt keine Bremsspuren was die Weiterentwicklung der Elektromobilität angeht
Auszug:
"Autobauer bleiben ihrer Elektrifizierungsstrategie treu. Über 35 weitere Plug-in-Hybrid- und Elektroautos - mit Leistungshalbleitern von Infineon versehen - sollen bis Ende 2021 an den Start gehen. „Bei allen Sparzwängen der Autoindustrie sind keine Tendenzen erkennbar, von der Strategie, die E-Mobilität auf die Straße zu bringen, abzukehren“, sagt Zizala.  

Man nehme kein Tempo heraus - das war und ist der einhellige Tenor aus den Vorstandsetagen und Entwicklerkreisen deutscher OEMS, die man in den vergangenen Monaten genau mit dieser Frage konfrontierte: Tritt man auf die Bremse?

Für VWs ID.3 - genauer: Volkswagens Elektrifizierungsplattform MEB - lief dieser Tage in den Infineon-Werken Dresden und Villach die Hochvolumensfertigung von Leistungshalbleitern an."

Gedanke dazu:
Mit vollen Auftragsbüchern steigen auch Lieferzeiten, große Aufträge müssen rechtzeitig  platziert werden.  Mit der Ausstattung des Werks in Villach kommt man um Aixtron Maschinen nicht herum.

Hinzu kommt das China sich von Trump nicht das Wirtschaftswachstum "zertrumpeln" lassen wird. Sie werden mit Vollgas eine eigene Lieferkette unabhängig von den USA aufbauen.

Ich sehe ganz entspannt den Q3 Zahlen entgegen und habe keinen Zweifel bei Aixtron das richtige Pferd gesattelt zu haben. Auch wenn das Ross recht lange im Stall steht und nicht auf die Rennbahn kommt. Für mich bleibt es auf der Futterliste ;-)
fuexle  

Artikel geht wohl um Maschinen für UV LED. wenn der Absatz in der Pandemie auch gestiegen sein mag, gemessen am Gesamten Volumen wird wohl kaum ins Gewicht fallen. Das ist meine Annahme.  

Wer's nicht gesehen hat, es gab eine "Marketing-News" von Aixtron:

"Entscheidender Fortschritt bei Mehrfachsolarzellen gelungen"
https://www.dgap.de/dgap/News/dgap_media/...en-kosten/?newsID=1397497  

Veeco gerade bei +16% nach einem Goldman Upgrade: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/...Below/17360695.html

Kein direkte Aussagekraft für Aixtron in meinen Augen (lasse mich gerne eines Besser belehren von den Experten hier), aber da Veeco immer in den Peer Bewertungsgruppen beinhaltet ist, gibt es evtl mehr Potenzial für's lustige Analysten-Kursziel-Bingo :-).  

From a DIGITIMES headline today:

"HLJ soon to open new 6-inch epi wafer fab"

note: HLJ is a customer of Aixtron and a supplier of AMS.  

PlayNitride to construct 2nd micro LED line
Siu Han, Taipei; Steve Shen, DIGITIMES Thursday 17 September 2020

Taiwan-based PlayNitride plans to kick off construction at its second micro LED chip production line soon, having secured the first part of the funds for its US$50 million expansion project, according to company sources.

The second production line is slated for completion and volume production during second- to third-quarter 2021, expanding the company's capacity by 2-3 folds, said the sources.

The company's existing major shareholders, including Samsung Electronics, Epistar, Hermes-Epitek and AU Optronics (AUO), will commit new investments in the ongoing expansion project, the sources noted.

The company expects the production cost of micro LED chips to be lowered by 95% within five years, with the cost reductions to be most meaningful in the first two years.

It also aims to reduce the size of micro LED chips to 15-micron x 30-micron by 2021 from the current mainstream of 30-micron x 60-micron, as chip size reduction is the most effective way to bringing down unit costs, added the sources.

For its future development, the company also plans an IPO issue by year-end 2021 at the earliest.  

Excellent research @cwl! Thanks alot and keep it going!