Der USA Bären-Thread

2012 : USA Weltmacht Nummer 1 - ade -

macht nix, george is dann schon in rente juhu

 

man darf den Enthusiasmus der Amerikaner und des Vertrauen in sich selbst und die eigene Wirtschaft nicht vernachlässigen. Ich gebe jedem Bären in diesem Forum recht, in den USA sieht es auf dem Papier so schlecht aus wie lange nicht mehr.

aus konjunkturellen gründen müssten eigentlich demnächst die zinsen gesenkt werden, aus stabilitätsgründen dagegen erhöht werden. mit anderen worten, es wird vorläufig nichts passieren. gerade in europa hätte ich noch vor wenigen monaten mit einem großem aufschrei gerechnet sollten die zinsen wirklich gesenkt werden. aber anscheinent überwiegt momentan die angst vor wirtschaftlichen problemen in den usa vor einer inflation.  

50 % bis 2010 ... ist das wirklich viel ???

naja ...

 

Strange Action to the Upside
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
9/4/2007 4:00 PM EDT


This market has had plenty of unusual action in recent weeks, but today we had a particularly fine illustration of strange behavior.

Amnesia about recent subprime, credit, commercial paper and real estate problems kicked in. That led to aggressive buying on top of a market that has already bounced big, but what was most striking today was the divergence between the action in the Nasdaq 100 and that in the small caps.

The big-cap techs dragged the broader market up as the day progressed, but the steady buying in some of the big-cap technology names gave the impression that some are expecting this market to hit new highs within a few days. However, to add to the peculiarity of the action, overall market volume was rather mediocre, although up nicely from Friday's extremely low levels.

What is particularly amazing about this market action is that it is so strong at the same time that many are begging the Fed to cut interest rates to help us avoid some horrible problems that they are confident will occur. It sure isn't easy to reconcile a dovish Fed with a market that acts like this one today.

So is this a signal that the correction is over and that it is smooth sailing from here? Today's action would seem to indicate that, but the one thing this market has been very good at lately is surprises. The bulls are feeling fat and happy right now, just like the bears were two weeks ago, and if there is one thing we know for sure about the market beast is that he is an equal opportunity villain. Don't be too quick to assume that we won't see another surprise shift in the near future.

If you made some money but lagged the indices today, you aren't alone. Don't let that bother you. Only the true believers would have been fully loaded into this action, and they are the same ones who suffer the most during market turns.
 

sehr interessant, sicher auch eine erklärung für die "ralley der letzten 2 wochen":
wenn der citicorp von der FED (citicorp ist ein aktionär der FED) erlaubt wird, dass die citibank über dem mindestreservesatz zu verleihen, um damit ihren investmentarm citigroup global markets mit liquidität zu überschwemmen (brand löschen), ist es kein wunder, dass sich die märkte nochmal aufbäumen:

_____________________________________

If the Federal Reserve is waiving a fundamental principle in banking regulation, the credit crunch must still be sapping the strength of America's biggest banks. Fortune's Peter Eavis documents an unusual Fed move.

By Peter Eavis, Fortune writer

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- In a clear sign that the credit crunch is still affecting the nation's largest financial institutions, the Federal Reserve agreed this week to bend key banking regulations to help out Citigroup

(Charts, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (Charts, Fortune 500), according to documents posted Friday on the Fed's web site.

The Aug. 20 letters from the Fed to Citigroup and Bank of America state that the Fed, which regulates large parts of the U.S. financial system, has agreed to exempt both banks from rules that effectively limit the amount of lending that their federally-insured banks can do with their brokerage

affiliates. The exemption, which is temporary, means, for example, that Citigroup's Citibank entity can substantially increase funding to Citigroup Global Markets, its brokerage subsidiary. Citigroup and Bank of America requested the exemptions, according to the letters, to provide liquidity to those holding mortgage loans, mortgage-backed securities, and other securities.

This unusual move by the Fed shows that the largest Wall Street firms are continuing to have problems funding operations during the current market difficulties, according to banking industry skeptics. The Fed's move appears to support the view that even the biggest brokerages have been caught off guard by the credit crunch and don't have financing to deal with the resulting dislocation in the markets. The opposing, less negative view is that the Fed has taken this step merely to increase the speed with which the funds recently borrowed at the Fed's discount window can flow through to the bond markets, where the mortgage mess has caused a drying up of liquidity.

On Wednesday, Citibank and Bank of America said that they and two other banks accessed $500 million in 30-day financing at the discount window. A Citigroup spokesperson declined to comment. Bank of America dismissed the notion that Banc of America Securities is not well positioned to fund operations without help from the federally insured bank. "This is just a technicality to allow us to use our regular channels of business with funds from the Fed's discount window," says Bob Stickler, spokesperson for Bank of America. "We have no current plans to use the discount window beyond the $500 million announced earlier this week."

There is a good chance that other large banks, like J.P. Morgan (Charts, Fortune 500), have been granted similar exemptions. The Federal Reserve and J.P. Morgan didn't immediately comment.

The regulations in question effectively limit a bank's funding exposure to an affiliate to 10% of the bank's capital. But the Fed has allowed Citibank and Bank of America to blow through that level. Citigroup and Bank of America are able to lend up to $25 billion apiece under this exemption, according to the Fed. If Citibank used the full amount, "that represents about 30% of Citibank's total regulatory capital, which is no small exemption," says Charlie Peabody, banks analyst at Portales Partners.

The Fed says that it made the exemption in the public interest, because it allows Citibank to get liquidity to the brokerage in "the most rapid and cost-effective manner possible."

So, how serious is this rule-bending? Very. One of the central tenets of banking regulation is that banks with federally insured deposits should never be over-exposed to brokerage subsidiaries; indeed, for decades financial institutions were legally required to keep the two units completely separate. This move by the Fed eats away at the principle.

Sure, the temporary nature of the move makes it look slightly less serious, but the Fed didn't give a date in the letter for when this exemption will end. In addition, the sheer size of the potential lending capacity at Citigroup and Bank of America - $25 billion each - is a cause for unease. Indeed, this move to exempt Citigroup casts a whole new light on the discount window borrowing that was revealed earlier this week. At the time, the gloss put on the discount window advances was that they were orderly and almost symbolic in nature. But if that were the case, why the need to use these exemptions to rush the funds to the brokerages?

Expect the discount window borrowings to become a key part of the Fed's recovery strategy for the financial system. The Fed's exemption will almost certainly force its regulatory arm to sharpen its oversight of banks' balance sheets, which means banks will almost certainly have to mark down asset values to appropriate levels a lot faster now. That's because there is no way that the Fed is going to allow easier funding to lead to a further propping up of asset prices.

Don't forget: The Federal Reserve is in crisis management at the moment. However, it doesn't want to show any signs of panic. That means no rushed cuts in interest rates. It also means that it wants banks to quickly take the big charges that will inevitably come from holding toxic debt securities. And it will do all it can behind the scenes to work with the banks to help them get through this upheaval. But waiving one of the most important banking regulations can only add nervousness to the market. And that's what the Fed did Monday in these disturbing letters to the nation's two largest banks.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/...wArticle&code=20070828&articleId=6642  

bist du das sprachrohr von dem brandmaier (herausgeber von börse aktuell), der erzählt auch immer seinen lesern was von 20000 pkt. im dow bis 2010, mache doch einfach wenn du daran glaubst den super megaaufstieg mit.  

möchte ich abgrausi vorschlagen, das buchstäblich verstiegene Zeug in einem eigenen Thread zu diskutieren.  

http://www.ariva.de/..._two_big_banks_t283343?pnr=3523829#jump3523829  

Abgrausi. Wenn Du sonst nichts zu lachen hast, könnte wenigstens Dein Gebiss
eines Tages zu ungeheurem Wert aufsteigen.  

Stimmt, Du warst der Erste, Wawidu war in # 5219 der Zweite, und # 5730 von Hacko ist das dritte Mal. Ich hab den Artikel aber erst bei Wawidus Posting zur Kenntnis genommen. Hier wird soviel gepostet, dass man langsam den Überblick verliert. Dieser Peter-Eavis-Artikel ist allerdings so wichtig, dass er es verdient hat, drei Mal gepostet zu werden. Um 2000 war Peter Eavis übrigens Street.com-Autor (und Bär...).  

Scheuklappen an und durch.  

Viele Grüße

Ihr

Jochen Steffens

Sie sehen, dass hier eine fast perfekte Rundung entstanden ist, die nun in die „senkrechte Phase“ eingetreten ist. Diese Phase kann die Kurse tatsächlich noch etwas weiter treiben. Doch irgendwann wird die Schwerkraft diesen Chart runter holen und das wird in den meisten Fällen unter schmerzhaften Kursrückgängen geschehen.

Die Erwartung eines solchen Einbruchs ist auch der Grund, warum viele meiner lieben Kollegen der großen Börsengemeinde Deutschlands die Volkswagenaktie seit Wochen und Monaten zu shorten versuchen. Die ersten haben schon bei 95 € damit angefangen. Viele andere fanden 115 € massiv übertrieben. Bei 150 € sind gerade die letzten Shortpositionen aufgebaut worden. Die meisten haben sich bis jetzt die Finger verbrannt. Ein schönes Beispiel für die alte Weisheit, dass man nicht gegen einen Trend traden soll.

Anm. d. Red Einschub:

Da es mittlerweile schon eine Art Volkssport geworden ist, wer von den Analysten und Tradern denn nun Volkswagen zum richtigen Zeitpunkt shortet, also wer das vorläufige, mittelfristige Hoch erwischt, werde ich bei diesem inoffiziellem Wettkampf, sofern ich ein geeignetes Verkaufssignal erkenne, dieses eine Mal mitmachen. Wohl wissend, dass es gegen ALLE meine Prinzipien verstößt. Doch wer an den Börsen tätig ist muss einfach einen leichten Hang zum Wettkampf und Zocken haben – und diesen sollte man immer mal wieder ein wenig nachgeben - meinen Sie nicht?

Dax und Volkswagen
Wenn wir nun den Dax mit Volkswagen vergleichen, fällt auf, dass diese letzte Phase, also der extrem steile, fast senkrechte Anstieg im Dax noch nicht zu erkennen ist. Das kann also noch kommen! Wieweit der Dax steigt, 10.000 Punkte oder 12.000 Punkte ist dann nicht mehr prognostizierbar.


-> 12.000 wir kommen ...  

aber vorher, eine gnade an euch bären, wird es laut elliott wellen nochmal dax unter 7000 fallen

bevor es dann auf 12000 geht

 

haben kann.

Aufschwung oder Rezession?
5. September 2007, 07:15 Uhr Handelsblatt

Klickt euch mal durch, hier der link:

http://www.handelsblatt.com/News/..._p_text&ig_xmlfile=HB_szenarien2.  

Rational lässt sich der Anstieg von Volkswagen nicht mehr erklären, mag der Vorstand auch durch Hurengelage in fortlaufender Hochstimmung sein. Daher sind hier auch irrationale Erklärungsmuster gemäß Eliott zulässig, wenngleich wir derlei Hokuspokus nur am Rande streifen sollten (-> Hinweis vor allem an abgrausi, wird sonst schnell "öde" bzw. "randständig").

Eliott-Strichverlängerungen sind keine Wissenschaft, sondern fallen eher in den Bereich "angewandte Psychologie". Neunmalkluge versuchen immer wieder, in den intakten Uptrend hinein zu shorten und "das Top" zu erwischen - ähnlich Bullen, die in langen Downtrends ständig durch Nachkäufe zu "verbilligen" versuchen. Dadurch werden die Serial-Top-Caller (bzw. Serial-Bottom-Caller) aber nur zum Kanonenfutter der jeweiligen Trendfolger. Zurzeit sind die (Up-)Trendfolger eine bunte Mischung aus perma-bullischen Naivlingen und abgefeimten Profis ("Short-Squeezern").

Ich hab den Eindruck, das die Industrie.com-Blase von 2007, die auch Werte wie den Stahlkocher Salzgitter von 6 Euro (2003) auf über 150 Euro (2007) hievte, immer mehr der Dot.com-Blase von 2000 ähnelt, in der Klitschen wie Yahoo über 500 Dollar stiegen. Das Ende kennen wir, und es wird bei der Industrie.com-Blase nicht anders ablaufen.

Da der Markt jedoch technisch getrieben ist, sollte man erst shorten, wenn eindeutige charttechnische Einstiegssignale zu erkennen sind. Das Gleiche gilt für die (US-)Indizes, die ja ebenfalls mit geballter Kraft die wirtschaftlichen Realitäten zu leugnen trachten.
 

Das letzte Wort ist noch nicht gesprochen ;-))
 

lesen ohne kosten,  dann brauchste bitte hier  den thread nicht vollmüllen, ich bitte dich um verständnis, stört bestimmt nicht nur mich beim lesen......  

anbei die GBP Kurve bis 1 Jahr; sieht alles andere als normal aus.
Dazu passen auch folgende Artikel:
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/...lMyQjAxMDE3ODA4NDkwMTQ3Wj.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d7a4be24-5b1c-11dc-8c32-0000779fd2ac.html
 

Großbritannien ist der Zinssatz beim Interbankenhandel auf einem 12-Jahreshoch. Man hat in den USA also noch nichts im Griff und in Großbritannien scheint es zu entgleiten. Die nächste Immobilienkrise lässt grüßen. Im Euroraum stabilisiert sich der Interbankenhandel weiter und beruhigt sich trotz Absaugen von Liquidität durch die EZB.   Die Probleme scheinen im Euroland nicht so groß gewesen zu sein und bei den Angelsachsen erst jetzt so richtig an die Oberfläche zu sprudeln.  

Bezog sich auf Dreimonatszinsen (Bloomberg-tv)  

By James Quinn,Wall Street Correspondent
Last Updated: 12:30am BST 05/09/2007
Hedge funds suffered their worst month of redemptions in seven years in July after some $55bn (£27.4bn) was withdrawn by jittery investors concerned by lowered returns amid the global credit crunch.
The sector, until recently seen as one of the most invincible within the financial community, took a heavy battering as investors redeemed funds when the markets began to fall.In total, withdrawals for all hedge funds totalled $55bn in July, based on data from the TrimTabs and BarclayHedge reports, with inflows in the same month of $23bn.But the amounts withdrawn are likely to pale in comparison when figures for August redemptions are released early next month.The TrimTabs report warned that the August position could be even greater, given the heavy losses suffered by many funds at the height of last month's market collapse.Hedge funds, which tend to be more focused and often invest via a specific, computer-linked strategy, bore the brunt of the losses during the summer's equity rout.Initial falls began in hedge funds which had invested in sub-prime mortgages and distressed debt, but soon widened to encompass more general computer-based quantitative funds.But Charles Biderman, of TrimTabs, believes the fall in investment in July could actually have been to blame for the significant stock market falls that were the hallmark of August.

Mr Biderman said the drop "likely sparked the dislocation in the equity markets in the summer".He also believes, however, that the worst could now be over. "Assuming market volatility does not spike again this month, the worst of the selling in the hedge fund world is probably finished," he said.

Most hedge funds require a 30 or 60-day notice period before funds can be redeemed, meaning the investors who withdrew money in July got cold feet in May or June.The drop in equity markets towards the end of July was triggered by a number of hedge funds who said they could not meet redemption requests.....Meanwhile, Queen's Walk Investments, a quoted investor in asset-backed securities (ABS) run by hedge fund manager Cheyne Capital, said it expected further volatility in the ABS markets.
It also warned that the availability of capital to purchase debt securities had reduced significantly in recent weeks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/...05/cnhedge105.xml  

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. commercial real estate prices may fall as much as 15 percent over the next year in the broadest decline since the 2001 recession as rising borrowing costs force property owners to accept less or postpone sales.

``People aren't willing to do deals right now,'' said Howard Michaels, the New York-based chairman of Carlton Advisory Services Inc., which has arranged financing for real estate purchases including the Lipstick Building in midtown Manhattan. ``The expectation is that prices will come down.''

Investors in July bought the fewest commercial properties since August 2006 and apartment building acquisitions were down 50 percent from June, data compiled by industry consultants at New York-based Real Capital Analytics Inc. show. Archstone-Smith Trust in August postponed its $13.5 billion sale to a group led by Tishman Speyer Properties LP until October. Mission West Properties Inc., the owner of commercial buildings in Silicon Valley, said on Aug. 13 that the company's $1.8 billion sale may fail after a bank withdrew funding.

``There are so many deals falling apart,'' said David Lichtenstein, chief executive officer of Lakewood, New Jersey- based Lightstone Group, an owner of more than 20,000 apartments and 30 million square feet of office and retail space. ``People who can get out are getting out.''  Average prices for commercial properties might drop 5 percent to 15 percent in the next two years depending on the type of property and its quality and location, said Matthew Ostrower, an industry analyst at New York-based Morgan Stanley, the second-largest U.S. securities firm by market value.

Commercial mortgage rates have climbed as defaults rose in the subprime part of the residential real estate market. About six months ago, a 30-year commercial loan with 5 to 10 years of interest-only payments would have cost the borrower about 120 basis points more than the yield of the 10-year Treasury note. A similar loan would now cost about 160 to 200 basis points more than the 10-year Treasury's yield of 4.6 percent, data compiled by New York-based Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman show. The increase has halted a rally that lifted prices for office buildings, apartments and hotels to records this year. The average price paid for high-quality office properties in city centers reached $291 a square foot, up from $188 in 2005 and almost double the average $152 in 2001, Real Capital reported......
The Bloomberg Office Property Index of real estate investment trusts has dropped 24 percent since reaching a record high on Feb. 8, just as Zell sold his company to Blackstone in the largest real estate takeover. The index had dropped 27 percent through Aug. 30 before stocks rallied the next day after President George W. Bush and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to prevent credit losses from snuffing out the country's economic expansion.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...d=20601103&sid=a6CPQun5.3bQ&refer=us  

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, last week put the odds of a recession occurring within the next six months at 40%, up from 15% just six weeks ago, when his firm completed a report on the implications of deteriorating credit conditions on the broader economy.

“I think we’re going from bad to very bad in the housing market,” he said. “That means very little subprime and jumbo [mortgage] lending is going on out there. Housing starts, prices and sales are headed significantly down over the next few months, and that will be a substantive weight on the economy.”

http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200770831036  

Ein interessanter Vergleich aus:

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=8342&pv=1  

dreimaliges Testen der Unterstützung bei 7680 und es geht weiter auf die 7800 zu. Dort lauert eine kleine Chance für alle Bären...

Ja, die "Erleuchteten" wissen, wie man eine Steilvorlage liefert. Das muss man schon zugeben. Bernanke und Bush vor die Presse, leichte Kritik an den Spekulanten, starker Arm des Staates für alle "Erdbeerpflücker", kurz noch am Future gedreht - und schon ist alles wieder in Ordnung. Jede Chartsoftware meldet Ausbruch, Geld ist mehr als genug da, die ersten Shorties kapitulieren jetzt, die anderen bei einem neuen ATH...also genug Sprengstoff für weiter steigende Kurse.

Logik spielt jetzt keine Rolle mehr. Zumal noch kein Mensch auf den Buchwert schaut. Sondern nur auf die Gewinne. Und da scheinen viele Aktien preiswert. Auf den Buchwert wird erst geschaut, wenn Gewinne zurück gehen. Dann erinnert sich plötzlich jeder an die "Substanz". Das wird aber noch ein Weilchen dauern.

Alles in allem hat die Börse bis 2006 die Erholung weltweit sehr gut in steigenden Kursen kompensiert. Dann begann die Übertreibung. Allerdings steht die Übertreibung eben erst am Anfang. Für mich eine ungmütliche Phase. Eigentlich könnte man shorten - wird aber Mal um Mal von den Bullen plattgemacht. Zumal das "Milchmädchen" immer noch daneben steht, also die letzte Kompanie der Bullen noch garnicht in die Schlacht geschickt wurde.

 

Wertzuwachs