First Uranium beobachten
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Uranium market dynamics:
-- The spot uranium price is US$95.00/lb, up 45% from US$65.50/lb 3
months ago and up 78% from US$53.25/lb 6 months ago.
-- Forward indicators continue to strengthen and are currently at all
time highs (except for a brief spike that coincided with the Cigar Lake
flooding 4Q06).
-- Current indications suggest the uranium price will reach US$125/lb
during 2007, an increase of 32% from the current spot price; and US$140/lb
by September 2008, an increase of 47% over the current spot price.
-- 48 new nuclear power reactors are currently expected to be
commissioned globally by 2013 with aggregate generating capacity of 43.5
GWe.
-- The majority of new power reactors under construction are located in
Asia (13 in China, 8 in India, 6 in Korea, 3 in Japan) and 8 in Russia.
http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=232237
Posted on Apr 30th, 2007 with stocks: CCJ, EMU, EXC, NMX, STHJF.PK, SXRFF.PK, URZ
James Finch submits: Earlier last week, Dow Jones MarketWatch reporter Myra Saefong contacted us with some very interesting questions about the NYMEX uranium futures contracts. These contracts will commence trading on May 7th. Previously, we had made inquiries about the viability of this futures market, and realized that a few expert opinions would be insufficient to do this story justice.
Rather than simply respond with our opinion, we decided to poll a cross-section of our readership. While not everyone was surveyed (we randomly emailed only about 1500 subscribers), we did receive an adequate response – nearly 400. We gave those subscribers less than 36 hours to respond by clicking on a hidden web page, which automatically tabulated their responses for us. Because of the service we utilized, their names and email addresses remained anonymous.
We are aware that our emails reached utilities, banks, financial institutions, hedge funds, stockbrokers, and retail investors. We emailed to readers in about 60 countries. More than 60 percent of our readership is in the United States. Other key geographical regions include Japan, Canada, Germany, Israel, France, Spain/Portugal, Scandinavia, United Kingdom, Mexico, and Australia/New Zealand.
Below are the responses to our survey questions. The polling service also provided us with a bar chart to illustrate those responses. We would like to expand our sampling by encouraging anyone reading this article to also vote their opinion on these same questions. The deadline for voting is Noon U.S. Eastern Time on Thursday, May 3rd.
Following these results are two expert opinions about the NYMEX uranium futures contracts. Both experts discussed this new development with various utility executives and fuel managers at the recent World Nuclear Fuel Conference in Budapest, Hungary. We wanted to share their insights with you.
1. Are you currently investing in uranium mining stocks?
response1
2. Are you currently investing in one or more funds which holds physical uranium?
response2
3. Over the next twelve months, do you plan on trading the new physical uranium futures, soon to be available on the NYMEX?
response3
4. Do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will provide uranium price transparency?
response4
5. Do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will attract more interest in uranium?
response5
6. Do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will add more volatility to the uranium price?
response6
7. Which categories do you believe the NYMEX Futures contracts will most benefit? (Choose one or more)
response7
8. Which direction do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will cause the uranium price to go?
response8
Two Expert Opinions
Over the past week, we’ve spoken to several industry experts about the impact of uranium futures on the uranium price. Will it work? Yellowcake Mining (YCKM.OB) director Dr. Robert Rich, who has spent several decades in every aspect of the nuclear fuel cycle, talked to a number of utility executives at the recent nuclear fuel conference in Budapest. He felt they were pretty excited about the prospects for uranium futures trading. “It may be too early to tell,” Dr. Rich told us, “but I think futures trading shows promise.”
In a prepared response, TradeTech chief executive Gene Clark wrote of those he has talked with, “The most interested parties have been the electric utility company fuel managers, who seem to be willing to try anything new that will give them the power to halt the price run-up.” He also pointed out utility fuel managers have “little, if any, experience in such (futures) markets.”
By contrast, after having discussed futures trading with professional traders, Dr. Clark wrote, “The folks we talked to, who have the most experience in these types of markets, are the most skeptical.” He explained, “They don’t see how such a market could take hold, given (in their words) ‘the lack of the basic elements for such a market to evolve.’” He cited the absence of a ‘liquid spot market and absence of a linkage to the physical market for the commodity.’
Dr. Clark also pointed out an interesting observation, “The NYMEX futures market potentially sets the stage for a very interesting battle between the traditional market participants and a new set of players. The traditional players have no interest in transparency and liquidity. In fact, that’s how they make their money – by making sure it is transparent only to themselves as individual parties.”
http://www.cnxmarketlink.com/en/releases/archive/May2007/09/c6957.html
CAN
FIU 12.690 +0.070 +0.55 134,750 T
US
Last Trade: 11.68
Trade Time: May 18
Change:§Up 0.23 (2.03%)
Prev Close: 11.45
Open: N/A
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A§
1y Target Est: N/A
§
Day's Range: 11.68 - 11.68
52wk Range: 6.69 - 11.82
Volume: 100§
Avg Vol (3m): 2,362.69
Market Cap: N/A
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): N/A
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)
FIU 12.920 -0.080 -0.62 78,379 T
Positiver update im report
""According to the Revised Report, the projected net present value ("NPV")
of the Buffels project (assuming the completion of the MWS Acquisition, the
Additional Dams Acquisition and a discount rate of 8%) is US$295 million with
a projected internal rate of return ("IRR") of 69% (as compared to
US$211 million and 39%, respectively, as disclosed in the Prior Buffels
Report). ""
""um price assumption accounted for an increase in the
projected NPV from US$237 million to US$295 million and in the projected IRR
from 57% to 69%.""
""While the MWS Dam 5 resource is included in the revised Buffels resource
statement, it has not been included in the economic analysis on the Buffels
project. However, the Company anticipates that MWS Dam 5 would add another
three years to Buffels' mine life.
§ With the MWS resources better defined, the Buffels' mine life is now
estimated, assuming the completion of the MWS Acquisition, to be 16 years, not
17 as originally announced on April 4, 2007.""
""cash cost of gold should be $220 per ounce and the cash
cost of uranium should be $22.05 per pound.""
§
""Gold production at MWS continues and will be credited to First Uranium as
of April 1, 2007 assuming completion of the acquisition. Uranium production
from the first two of three uranium plant modules is scheduled to commence in
November 2008. The average annual production for Buffels (assuming completion
of the MWS Acquisition) for the life of the project (March 2007 to April 2023)
is expected to be 128,000 ounces of gold and 922,000 pounds of uranium.
§ The Company expects to continue the work with preparation of a
pre-feasibility study for Buffels commencing immediately.""
http://www.cnxmarketlink.com/en/releases/archive/May2007/23/c3785.html
CADEUR=X 12,7§28 Mai 0,6879 8,7369 0,6879 0,6884
11:23 12.700 100 +0.200 Anonymous GMP Securities
11:23 12.700 100 +0.200 Anonymous GMP Securities
11:13 12.640 100 +0.140 Anonymous RBC
11:13 12.640 100 +0.140 Anonymous RBC
11:05 12.630 500 +0.130 ITG GMP Securities
11:05 12.630 100 +0.130 Anonymous GMP Securities
10:54 12.630 100 +0.130 Anonymous Anonymous
10:48 12.580 100 +0.080 Anonymous BMO Nesbitt
10:46 12.640 100 +0.140 Anonymous RBC
10:45 12.640 100 +0.140 Anonymous RBC
§
JSE_CODE : SIM OPEN : 715 CLOSE : 713
BID : 732 HIGH: 735 LOW : 713
OFFER: 733 YEAR HIGH : 780 YEAR LOW : 182
PE : -35.23 LAST TRADE : 732 DAY CHANGE : 19
DAY CHANGE % : 2.66 CUMULATIVE VALUE : 2847218076 NO_OF_TRADES : 221
LONG_NAME : SIMMER AND JACK MINES LIMITED LAST_TRADED_VOLUME : 20500 LAST_MOD_DATE : 07/06/2007
§
LAST_MOD_TIME : 10:04:00
Uranium is running hot
Mandi Zonneveldt
June 06, 2007 12:00am
Article from: Herald-Sun
THE price of uranium - already up 85% since January - could reach $US200 a pound within two years, according to Australian securities firm, Macquarie.
Analysts have been forced to revise their forecasts for the nuclear fuel upwards after its dramatic run so far this year, driven by dwindling supplies and limited expansion opportunities.
The spot price of uranium rose to $US138 a pound last week. It began the year at $US72 a pound.
Macquarie analysts Max Layton and John Moorhead believe the price will average about $US125 a pound this year, but have tipped a peak of about $US150 a pound by year's end.
"We would not be surprised to see prices move up to around $US200 a pound over the next two years," they said, citing significant supply deficits and growing interest in speculative trading.
The world uranium market is expected to remain in deficit for at least the next two years as secondary supplies of ex-military uranium are depleted and miners race to catch up with demand.
In March, Paladin Resources shipped the first uranium from its Langer Heinrich project in Namibia -- the world's first new uranium mine in more than a decade.
Canada's Cameco was due to bring on the giant Cigar Lake mine soon, but a flood last October will delay production until at least 2010.
At the same time, concern about climate change has prompted a rush towards nuclear power, with 30 new nuclear reactors under construction and 74 more planned.
Macquarie has forecast a 14.4 per cent rise in reactor requirements as a result of that growth, but demand could be much higher with a further 182 reactors proposed, mostly in Asia.
Prime Minister John Howard is pushing the case for nuclear in Australia, telling the Liberal Party's federal council meeting on Sunday that lowering greenhouse gas emissions "of necessity must include nuclear power".
Resource Capital Research recently raised its uranium price forecast to $US125 a pound in 2007 and $US140 a pound in 2008.
Neal Froneman, chief executive of SXR Uranium One, which is developing the Honeymoon project in South Australia, has predicted the spot price could hit $US250 a pound next year.
The fervour surrounding uranium pushed the value of Australian uranium explorers up 23 per cent in the first three months of this year and has seen hedge funds and speculators wade into the spot market.
Macquarie said reports suggested almost 20 per cent of mine supply, or about 8000 tonnes of uranium, was being held off the market by traders - and it tipped increased speculative activity could quickly drive prices lower.
"Traders, speculators and hedge funds could very quickly become drivers of the down leg to this cycle, in the same way as they have been a major driver of the recent upswing," Mr Layton and Mr Moorhead said.
The New York Mercantile Exchange also launched a uranium futures market last month, which Macquarie has described as a "potentially bullish wildcard".
The June contract closed yesterday at $US137 a pound, while the December contract was at $US148.
Uran future bei 140 US$ ++
June 2007 137.00
July 2007 140.00
Weekly Spot Ux U3O8 Price
as of June 11, 2007
Change from previous (week)
1 US$ = 0.74861 €
U3O8 Price (lb) $135.00 [Unch.] €101.06 [Unch.]
historische Performance
Schlusskurs vom 29. 01. 2007 6.09
Aktueller Kurs 8.92
Veränderung 2.83 (46.47%)
FIU 'klein und fein' hat den turn-around von neg bis pos "wieder" geschafft..
FIU 12.340 +0.090 +0.73 81,996 T
FSY 6.340 +0.190 +3.09 144,150 T
SXR 15.020 +0.510 +3.51 3,091,537 T
UPC 0.960 +0.100 +11.63 508,900 V
viel Glück
Moderation
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Zeitpunkt: 28.12.10 21:53
Aktion: Löschung des Beitrages
Kommentar: Löschung auf Wunsch des Verfassers
Der Vergleich mit anderen Uranaktien, die Gewinne machen, hinkt daher.
Der Name allein macht es nicht.
Eine Uranium Partizipation läuft wenigstens mit dem Uranpreis.