Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.
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Die derzeitigen Reserven und Resourchen liegen bei 40 Mio Uz. Die MK bei ca. 104 Mio USD.
D.h. jede Unze wird an der Börse mit USD 2,60 bewertet. (Mal alle Assets außer Acht gelassen). Das Minenleben wird mit 4 Jahren bei den bestehenden Reserven angegeben. Bei Berücksichtigung aller Resourcen würde sich dieses auf 10 Jahre verlängern. Nur ob diese auch zu einem wirtschaflichen Preis abgebaut werden können bleibt fraglich.
Zum Vergleich Apex Silver Mines (derzeit noch Explorer), wird an der Börse für ca. 880 Mio. USD gehandelt. Die gesamten Resourcen werden sich auf 450 Mio. belaufen. D.h. die Börse bewertet hier jede Unze mit USD 1,95. Anzumerken ist aber noch, daß Silber hier nur zu ca. 31% abgebaut wird. Der größte Umsatz ist Zink mit 55% und auf Blei entfallen 14%. Würde man diesen Faktor noch miteinberechnen, wäre das Unternehmen wohl mit unter 1 USD/Unze bewertet. Hier läuft das Silber also nur nebenbei mit - mit den wohl geringsten Förderkosten. Das Minenleben beträgt 16 Jahre. Nachteil im Moment, die etwas undurchsichtige Regierungspolitik von Morales. Darum sehe ich hier einen Bewertungsabschlag un 25% gerechfertigt.
xpfuture
xpfuture
Das Minenleben von SIL beträgt 20+ Jahre. Die Kosten pro geförderter Unze belaufen sich auf 3,90 USD. Außerdem ist nichts gehedget.
Auf den ersten Blick scheint SIL sehr teuer bewertet, allerdings hat man hier auch einen gewissen Sicherheitsfaktor eingebaut. SIL ist im Moment mit Abstand die provistabelste Silberminenaktie am Markt.
xpfuture
Nach Lebensdauer der Minen schlägt Silver Wheaton das gesamte Feld mit über 20 Jahren, danach kommt Apex, abgeschlagen und im (für mich) kritischen Bereich liegt Fortuna mit 4 Jahren (mit Resourcen 10 Jahren)
Sicherheit für den Kurs bietet SIL, Fortuna und Apex sind dagegen als Spekulation zu sehen - haben aber den weitaus höheren Hebel.
Fazit: Silber Wheaten würde bei Sicherheitsorientierten ins Depot kommen, bei Apex ist das Risiko zwar um ein vielfaches höher (da noch nicht produzierend + politische Unklarheit in Bolivien), der Hebel allerdings enorm. Fortuna sehe ich persönlich auf Platz 3, da aufgrund der niedrigen Minenlebenszeit und der geringen Resourcen sehr viel Geld in weitere Exploration fliessen muß. Weiters ist Fortuna (mehr als andere) vom hohen Silberpreis abhängig.
Wünsche dir trotzdem viel Glück mit deinem Invest.
xpfuture
Minenleben von 4 Jahren bezieht sich nur auf Caylloma, was für mich nur die Chash Cow ist um die weiteren Projekte zu finazieren. Ebenfalls interessant ist das die Mineralbestände (Recourcen) um 50% nach oben angepaßt wurden.
Aus Posting 42:
On Monday, Fortuna announced that it had increased Measured and Indicated pure silver resources, inclusive of reserves, by 50% to 10.5 million ounces at Caylloma.According to the table below, Caylloma now hosts an estimate of about 5 million ounces silver in Proven and Probable reserves, roughly 5.5 million ounces in M&I resources and 14 million ounces silver in Inferred resources.The metal prices were used in the resource and reserve estimation: $8/oz silver, $500/oz gold, $800/tonne lead and $1,803/tonne zinc.According to Szabo, some of the original publicity on Caylloma touted the deposit as an elephant.
Ich wünsche dir eine schönes Wochenende.
Permanent
HANDELSBLATT, Montag, 30. Oktober 2006, 14:46 Uhr |
Öl unter 60 DollarZinkpreis setzt Rekordkurs fortDie Nachfrage nach Zink an den internationalen Rohstoffmärkten ist ungebrochen. Das Metall setzte seinen Rekordkurs auch am Montag fort und stieg an der London Metal Exchange (LME) bis auf 4 200 Dollar je Tonne. Händler sagten, die hohe Nachfrage nach Industriemetallen aus China und Indien sorge für weiter fallende Lagerbestände.HB FRANKFURT. In einem Marktkommentar der Standard Bank erklärten die Analysten, der Zinkpreis könne mittelfristig durchaus bis auf 5 000 Dollar je Tonne klettern. Das für den Korrosionsschutz verwendete Metall kostet mittlerweile mehr als doppelt so viel wie zu Jahresbeginn. Die Lagerbestände sind dagegen weltweit auf den tiefsten Stand seit mehr als einem Jahrzehnt gefallen und reichen im Verhältnis zum täglichen weltweiten Verbrauch nur noch für knapp vier Tage. Auch Blei verteuerte sich am Montag. Während die Blei-Lagerbestände nach Ansicht von Experten auch in Zukunft zurückgehen dürften, erwarten Rohstoffhändler kurzfristig eine größere Verfügbarkeit von Kupfer auf dem Weltmarkt. „Die Lager füllen sich und auch in naher Zukunft wird das Angebot an Kupfer weiter steigen“, sagte ein Händler an der LME. Kupfer kostete am Montagmittag in London 7 380 Dollar je Tonne, knapp 100 Dollar weniger als am Freitag. Für eine Tonne Blei zur Lieferung in drei Monaten mussten Anleger am Terminmarkt 1 588 Dollar je Tonne bezahlen. Am Rohölmarkt Öl purzelten die Preise zu Wochenbeginn. Ein Barrel (rund 159 Liter) US-Leichtöl kostete an der New Yorker Nymex am Mittag 59,81 Dollar und damit knapp einen Dollar weniger als am Freitag. Auch der Future für die führende Nordseesorte Brent sank deutlich unter 60 Dollar. Börsianer begründeten die Kursrückgänge mit Umschichtungen großer Fonds, die begonnen hätten, andere Rohstoffe in ihren Portfolios beizumischen. „Große Fonds konzentrieren sich derzeit eher auf andere Rohstoffe, bei denen die Großwetterlage klarer ist“, spielte ein Händler auf die hohe Anfälligkeit des Öls auf politische und wirtschaftliche Unsicherheiten an. Am Mittwoch tritt die von der Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (Opec) beschlossene Kürzung der Fördermenge um 1,2 Mill. Barrel pro Tag in Kraft. Viele Experten erwarten jedoch, dass sich nicht alle Mitglieder des Kartells daran halten werden. Am Montag kündigte bereits Indonesien an, dass es die Vereinbarung der Opec nicht umsetzen will. Libyen schloss dagegen weitere Produktionskürzungen nicht aus. Der Preis für die Feinunze Gold kletterte am Montag wieder über 600 Dollar. Händler verwiesen auf schwache US-Konjunkturdaten, die bereits am Freitag Spekulationen wieder angefacht hatten, die US-Notenbank werde die Leitzinsen noch für eine ganze Zeit unverändert lassen. Dies hatte den Dollar unter Druck gesetzt und viele Anleger zur Alternative Gold greifen lassen. Der Reuters-Rohstoffindex stieg am Montag leicht auf 312,42 Punkte. Von seinem im Mai erreichten Jahreshoch von 365,45 Punkten ist der Indikator für die Rohstoffmärkte damit noch weit entfernt. Anfang Oktober hatte er bei 292,72 Zählern den bisher tiefsten Stand in diesem Jahr markiert. <!-- ISI_LISTEN_STOP --> |
JUPITER, Fla. (M&M) -- Here's a little Halloween treat for you: I believe fundamental forces are lining up that could make silver the bullish surprise of the fourth quarter. The metal spent the past few months consolidating... coiling up like a spring. The next breakout could come soon, and it should be big.Silver's next big move could take it to $15 per ounce, possibly $20 per ounce or even higher. Well-positioned companies will reap whirlwind profits -- stocks that are highly leveraged to the price of the metal and don't hedge (sell forward) their silver production. Let's look at just some of the forces lining up to push silver through the roof: -- The Shanghai Gold Exchange started silver trading on a trial basis today, Oct. 30. Since the Shanghai Exchange already offers trading in gold and platinum, this trial should become permanent, and it will likely attract money from China's 1.3 billion capitalists. They've already gone gung-ho for stocks -- Shanghai's stock market just hit a five-year high -- so Chinese investment demand for silver could be an explosive force in the market. -- The World Jewelry Confederation, an industry trade group, expects China, India and Russia to stand at the center of a double-digit rise in silver consumption in the coming years. -- According to research consultancy CPM, in 1990, there were around 2.2 billion ounces of silver held in above-ground stockpiles. As recently as 1995, there were 1.4 billion ounces of bullion in stockpiles. Today, there are probably only about 300 million ounces. That's a 50-year low. -- Industrial demand for silver is hot and getting hotter. Silver is the best metallic conductor of electricity, and uses for it are growing. For example, newly developed silver-zinc batteries can run notebook computers for hours longer than lithium-ion batteries. Note to Sony: These silver-zinc batteries also don't catch fire. -- The silver exchange-traded fund (SLV : ishares silver trust isharesNews , chart, profile, moreLast: 121.77+1.66+1.38%
11:50am 10/30/2006
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SLV121.77, +1.66, +1.4%) is a roaring success. It already has 103,280,000 ounces of silver -- that's way, way up from the 21 million ounces it started with back in April. And it's going to get bigger. The SLV recently filed papers to issue another 16,822,727 shares in its silver trust, representing, at 10 ounces per share, another 168 million ounces of silver. That will effectively increase the size of the trust by more than 150%. This new demand on the silver market is huge. -- In 2005, there was a gap of 35.5 million ounces between fabrication demand for silver and the conventional supply from mine production and scrap. According to GFMS of London, that was the 17th year in a row of a deficit in the silver market. To be sure, prices could go down if enough new mines come online. Silver mine production rose by 3.4% (to 642 million ounces) in 2005 and should rise a similar amount this year. But demand is growing at about 3.8% per year, and history shows us that about a third of new mine projects suffer serious delays. The other source of silver, scrap metal, is proving inelastic to rising prices, and I think the risk is to the upside. Silver could hit $20 per ounce by the end of next year. How to play silver's coming moveOne easy way would be to buy shares of the iShares silver ETF. By their nature, ETFs are low-cost and tax-efficient. However, the SLV doesn't have any leverage to the price of silver; it just tracks the price of silver. A better way might be to buy shares of Silver Wheaton (SLW : silver wheaton corp comNews , chart, profile, moreLast: 10.69+0.19+1.81%
11:50am 10/30/2006
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SLW10.69, +0.19, +1.8%) . It's the purest silver producer in the world and doesn't own any mines of its own -- thus it doesn't have to deal with the cost of plants or equipment. Instead, it has silver purchase agreements with three mines around the world. Through these contracts, Silver Wheaton produced 2.7 million ounces of silver in the most recent quarter at an average cash cost of $3.90 per ounce. Now that's leverage! Silver Wheaton's production should exceed 15 million ounces in 2006 and hit 20 million ounces in 2009. The three mines together have 84 million ounces in proven and probable reserves, and another 60.7 million measured and indicated silver. SLW has other projects in the works that could add hundreds of millions of ounces to its resource base. I expect Silver Wheaton's resource base to keep expanding, and that should pump up this stock's share price. SLW releases third-quarter earnings on Nov. 2. I think getting onboard before that earnings release would be a pretty smart idea. After all, its second-quarter earnings jumped 274%! Sean Brodrick is a contributing editor to Moneyandmarkets.com and editor of Red Hot Canadian Small-Caps, an electronic trading service focusing on natural resources and other hot Canadian sectors, and Red-Hot Asian Tigers, which focuses on Asia and Australia. Sean has no positions in SLW or SLV. (moneyandmarkets.com)Content found in The Guru's Corner is subject to the terms and conditions found in the Disclaimer and does not represent a recommendation of investment advice. Investors should seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to making any investment decisions. Performance returns for the Power Income Portfolio have not been independently verified. (Disclaimer)
greetz nuessa
Tschuldigung permanent, wenn wir hier deinen Thread für einen anderen Silberplayer benutzt haben - hat aber zu meinen Postings gepasst und ist auch (denke ich) für dich auch interessant.
xpfuture
Techn. momentan ein klarer Verkauf, sollten sie zum alten Trend überhaupt kommen, ist mit einem Rücksetzer zurechnen, erstmal 9,5 drunter gehts deutlich weiter runter. Techn. rate ich klar ab!
Entwarnung gibts dann leider erst über 12,20 von mir!
greetz nuessa
xpfuture
Nochmals Danke für deine rasche Einschätzung - hast was gut bei mir.
Price: US$/lb |
Copper | October 31,04:20 |
Bid/Ask | 3.3505 | - | 3.3595 |
Change | +0.0045 | +0.14% | |
Low/High | 3.3346 | - | 3.3754 |
Charts |
Nickel | October 31,04:20 |
Bid/Ask | 14.9459 | - | 15.0366 |
Change | +0.2722 | +1.85% | |
Low/High | 14.6057 | - | 15.0366 |
Charts |
Aluminum | October 31,04:22 |
Bid/Ask | 1.2628 | - | 1.2651 |
Change | +0.0027 | +0.22% | |
Low/High | 1.2601 | - | 1.2692 |
Charts |
Zinc | October 31,04:19 |
Bid/Ask | 1.9164 | - | 1.9255 |
Change | +0.0227 | +1.20% | |
Low/High | 1.8937 | - | 1.9255 |
Charts |
Lead | October 31,03:55 |
Bid/Ask | 0.7299 | - | 0.7344 |
Change | +0.0068 | +0.94% | |
Low/High | 0.7231 | - | 0.7344 |
Charts |
Uranium | Oct 12, 2006 |
Ux U308 price: | 56.00 |
Change from | |
previous week | +0.25 |
London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks ( October 31 ) | |||||||||||||||||||||
|
Bid/Ask 1.9571 - 1.9662
Change +0.0634 +3.35%
Low/High 1.8892 - 1.9684
Charts
Lead October 31,10:30
Bid/Ask 0.7412 - 0.7458
Change +0.0181 +2.51%
Low/High 0.7231 - 0.7480
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '01-NOV-06 09:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2006
RENO, NV (Mineweb.com) --Teck Cominco executives Tuesday forecast that world zinc stocks will contain only 11 days of supply by the end of this year, and may sink so low that it could “constrain metals consumption.”
In a conference call to discuss third-quarter financial results, the Vancouver-based miner also noted that lead LME stocks have declined to only two days of global consumption.
Mike Agg, Vice President Refining & Metal Sales for Teck Cominco, said the shortage of zinc concentrates is already limiting global metal production, as the globally tight concentrate market continues through 2006 and 2007. As a result, Agg said the deficit will cause the drawdown on zinc stocks to continue and could actually “constrain metals consumption. He noted that only 18 days of total global zinc stocks remained at the end of September. London Metals Exchange stocks have fallen 73% so far this year to only 3.8 days of global consumption, according to Agg. Meanwhile, zinc has hit a record high of $1.95 per pound.
Agg explained that zinc spot premium prices are rising in most markets, including that “strong demand is outstripping supply” and “a lack of availability [of zinc] in local markets.” Global zinc demand is up 5.5% in the Americas, 5.7% in Europe, and 4.9% in Asia, as of the end of August.
Meanwhile, although LME stocks of lead rose to 70,000 tonnes during the first half of this year, Agg said the stocks have now declined to the mid-40,000-tonne range. Currently, he estimated LME stocks only contain two days of global lead consumption. In the meantime, the lead price hit the historic high of 75-cents per pound on Tuesday.
Teck Cominco Manager of Market Research Andy Roebuck forecast a deficit in the copper concentrate market for the remainder of this year and in 2007. Since available stockpiles are still low, Roebuck suggested restocking of copper concentrates could continue well into next year. He estimated that 129,000 tonnes of copper remain in LME stocks, or 25 days of global consumption, noting that 90% of those stocks are being stored in warehouses in South Korea and Singapore.
Teck has experienced its own zinc woes as zinc sales at the Alaskan Red Dog mine were 80,000 tonnes lower during the third quarter due to adverse weather conditions, which delayed the start of the shipping season, and further delayed loading and shipment. Teck Cominco President and CEO Don Lindsay said that due to the tight concentrate market and the delays, the company wasn’t able to get enough zinc to market rapidly enough during the third quarter.
The company also experienced headaches at its Pogo gold project in Alaska as an excavator cut through a power cable, resulting in a fire which damaged a power substation. Power is expected to be fully restored by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the company also will take a $9 million charge for “social contributions” to be made by its sahre of the Antamina mine in Peru. The Peruvian Government has been pressuring mining companies to finalize a “voluntary” windfall profits program to pay for local Peruvian social programs. However, Teck Executive Vice President and COO Peter Kukielski told analysts that he doesn’t believe there will be a “fixed royalty” at Antamina, due to a contractual agreement.
FINANCIAL RESULTS
CEO Lindsay told analysts that the company will focus on international growth projects, such as the possibility of building a copper smelter at its Highland Valley project, and doesn’t expect to attempt another large acquisition. The company dropped its bid for Inco, and will sell its Inco stock to CVRD.
The company reported $504 million in net profit or $2.34 per share for the third quarter of this year, compared with a net profit of $405 million or $2 per share for the same quarter a year ago. Year-to-date net earnings were $1.6 billion or $7.48 per share, almost double the net earnings of $835 million ($4.12 per share) during the first nine months of 2005. Despite its failed takeover bid for Inco, the company reported $3.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of September.
Hi Dirk,
Unfortunately we do not have that chart. Production cost per ton is
about US$42/tonne though.
I hope that helps. If you have any other questions, please don't
hesitate to ask!
Sincerely,
Karen
......................................................
Karen Davies (Robb)
Investor Relations
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.
TSX-V: FVI
Somit entstehen Tageskosten von 29400$. Die Produktion läuft an 350 Tagen somit ergeben sich Jahreskosten von 10.290000$.
Gruß
Permanent
Marketcap liegt bei ca. 110 Mio.$
Produktionsbeginn war Oktober 06, nehmen wir also 07 als erstes Produktionsjahr:
Somit verbleibt ein Ertrag von ca. 30 Mio. Dollar.
Kann die Rechnung so stimmen?
Gruß
Permanent
Ist der Wert einfach nur vom Markt entdeckt worden oder wird Fortuna Silver vom steigen Silberpreis mit nach oben gezogen?
Gruß
Permanent
Mon Nov 6, 2006 5:45 AM ET
(pvs BEIJING, changes byline, releads, adds fresh comment andupdates prices throughout) By Clare Black LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Low stocks and healthy demandpushed zinc prices to fresh all-time highs on the London MetalExchange on Monday, taking their gain for the year to a whopping130 percent. With fund interest also high in the metal used mainly tocoat steel to prevent it from rusting, analysts could not ruleout further gains, with most touting $5,000-a-tonne as anachievable target before the year-end. By 0943 GMT, zinc futures <MZN3> were quoted at $4,370 atonne, up sharply from Friday's close of $4,292 and not far froma new record peak of $4,400. Some traders attributed the new high to automatic buy ordersfrom a fund trading programme at the start of the day in Europe,noting that volumes were otherwise very thin. Stephen Briggs, metals economist at Societe Generale, saidhe could not rule out prices rising towards $5,000/T in comingweeks, but he expected them to ease significantly next year asfresh supply starts to flow in. "We still believe zinc mine production could surge by 20percent between 2006 and 2008," he said in a research note. Zinc stocks held in LME warehouses fell 1,625 tonnes to101,350 -- their lowest in over a decade and a far cry from theswollen levels of April 2002 at over 970,000 tonnes. COPPER STAGNATES The strong performance in zinc failed to feed through tocopper, while aluminium eroded some of its earlier gains. LME copper futures have been stuck in an $8,000-$7,000 rangefor the past four months, coming under pressure in recent weeksdue to inflows of stocks into exchange warehouses. Bulls say that global inventories are still at historicallylow levels, leaving the market vulnerable to supply disruptions. With that in mind, traders were eyeing looming labournegotiations at top copper producer Codelco's Norte division,which churns out most of the company's copper. The current pact expires at the end of the year andnegotiations are meant to begin on Nov 17. By 1015 GMT, copper for delivery in three months <MCU3> wasdown $50 at $7,280/7,300 a tonne. "There is still virtually no volume trading to speak of,"one trader said. "People have the positions they want to have, those who arelong are happy, those who are short are happy. They are happy tosit with them...therefore why trade?" Chinese copper <0#SCF:> and aluminium <0#SAF:> futures putin a strong performance thanks to good domestic demand LME aluminium futures <MAL3> rose a modest $19 to$2,801/2,806 a tonne. Traders were not ruling out further gainsbefore the end of the year, with a target of $3,000, althoughmuch would depend on copper's performance. "It is still moving towards that target. To get it up andrunning you need it to close above the $2,830 area," one said. "But I am not sure it will manage to do it on its own. Ifcopper is going down to $7,000, I think aluminium will find itvery difficult to roar up to $3,000." Lead <MPB3> rose nearly 1 percent to $1,695/1,710, alsocarving out a fresh high of $1,705. Tin <MSN3> was virtuallyflat at $10,050/10,150 from $10,000/10,050. Nickel <MNI3> bucked the firmer trend and fell 2.5 percentto $30,600/30,800 a tonne, but is not that far from last month'srecord high at $32,600 and is still up nearly 130 percent sincethe end of 2005. (With additional reporting by Lucy Hornby in Beijing)
© Reuters 2006. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.
Close This WindowNovember 7, 2006: Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (TSX-V:FVI), Mr. Jorge
Ganoza, President of the Company, is pleased to announce that Fortuna
has made its first shipment of silver-lead and zinc concentrates from
the Company's 100% owned Caylloma Ag-Zn-Pb mine in Peru. Ore is
currently being processed at a rate of 500 tonnes per day (tpd). The
first four truck loads of concentrates were shipped to the concentrate
buyers last week.
Fortuna's metal production is unhedged allowing the Company and its
shareholders to capitalize on the current historic high prices for
silver, zinc and lead.
Background
Fortuna is a growth oriented, silver producing company focused on
mining opportunities in Latin America. Our primary assets are the
Caylloma Silver Mine in southern Peru and the San Jose Silver-Gold
Project in Mexico. The Company is aggressively pursuing additional
acquisition opportunities. For more information, please visit our
website at www.fortunasilver.com.
The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not take
responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD
Jorge Ganoza Durant, President
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.
Tel: 604-484-4085
Symbol: TSX-V:FVI
Zink 15.900000 * 1,8 =28.620000
Blei 10.100000 * 0,7 =10.700000
Summe =40.760000
Somit verbleibt ein Ertrag von ca. 30 Mio. Dollar.
Ich würde im ersten Jahr konservativ schätzen.
Sind das 1,2 Mio Unzen silber, 15,9 Mio pound Zink und 10,1 Mio pound
Blei? Woher kommen die Schätzungen?
Wenn sie vom Unternehmen kommen, würde ich Abschläge vornehmen.
Meistens läuft das erste Jahr nicht so wie geplant bei Junior Produzenten
wie Fortuna.
Was meinst Du mit Ertrag? wie kommst du auf den Betrag?
Grüsse Pate