der Euro/Dollar Long Thread
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sollten wir nochmals auf 1,3110/00 fallen, versuch ichs wahrscheinlich mit einem Long...
mfg
füx
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können zwischendurch gern mal telefonieren,
nummer dann aber lieber über boardmail...
gruß
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könnte noch was werden heute,immo 1,3042-
aber jetzt besteht kein Grund mehr für weiteren €-Verfall.
--füx,du meinst auf 1,3010/00 oder?
Warum eigentlich(erst)um 14:50 der Rücksetzer?
rapido
hast dir ja ein lustiges Teil ausgesucht *g*...
Widerstand bei 1,3050/60...wenn durch könnte es bis 1,31 gehen...aber bei der heutigen Volatilität trau ich mir ehrlich gesagt keine Voraussagen machen...US-Investmenthaus verkauft anscheinend im großen Stil Euro/Yen...wirkt sich natürlich auch auf Euro/$ aus..aktuell 1,3043
viel glück auf jeden Fall
füx
scheint,bißchen nebenher eigentlich,bin spätestens um 19:30 raus,
über Nacht to risky,jetzt gehts aber nicht mehr wirklich voran,
1,3037:-(
rrrrrrrrrr
bei 1,3041 raus.$/Y schon bei 102,97.
Vielleicht gehts morgen doch nochmal unter 1,30.
rapido
EUR/USD price magnet around 1.3000 may finally lose its attraction. Look at 1.3120 area again as the key resistance that we must break to the upside to see the minimum consolidation target of 1.3300.
Market may not move until US GDP report today – but this event is big enough that it will likely finally blast us out of the frustrating range we’ve been in The euro quit
dt. Bank:
The euro quit the new 1.2950 – 1.3100 congestion area that we discussed in our last report right at the start of
yesterday’s European session. Our warning about the danger of an upside
false break was also very timely, as the price simply spiked to 1.3125 and
then immediately plunged back into the old range. In NY, the euro hit a low
of 1.3010. This morning, apart from a brief spike to 1.3070 on the back of
yuan-revaluation speculation (see USD JPY comment) it has remained
under pressure.
The major implication of a false break is that it usually leaves behind a
number of wrong ‘breakout’ positions. In this case, that means bulls
stranded with their positions at yesterday’s lofty levels. One can therefore
reckon with ample supply around the former upper border (1.3090/00). We
set this point as the risk-limit to the current bearish view and we anticipate
further declines to the lower border (1.2950) as those wrong positions are
unwound. The target level is not a particularly good support. However, a
break there would not necessarily mean a sell-off for the single-currency.
We also expect increasing demand for medium-term traders at lower levels
and still believe that long-term accounts also wait with their bids sub-$1.29.
Thus we are still willing to bet that the pivotal 1.2840 level (see Monthly
Forex Outlook) will not be broken.
mfg
füx
EURUSD
This pair is extraordinarily nervous as Friday saw attempts at breaking out of both sides of the very tight ranges. 1.2990 and then 1.2925 are support while 1.3080 and then 1.3120 are resistance. Something has to give soon, and we prefer the upside, though buying the dips with close stops may be the best way to trade this. An eventual move higher toward 1.3300 could be seen by early next week. A break and hold below 1.2925, however, would of course put this development on hold and force a reconsideration of the situation.
dt. Bank:
EUR USD (1.3030) The euro was relatively buoyant after Friday’s
disappointing US GDP numbers. Shortly thereafter it hit the high of the day
at 1.3080. However, as expected, there was no shortage of eager sellers
as the single-currency approached the upper border of its former 1.2950 –
1.3100 congestion area. These were the former bulls that were left
stranded by last Thursday’s upside false break ; below-consensus US
economic data was their last hope. Over the rest of the NY session, the
euro plunged almost a big-figure.
It is plausible that most of the stranded long-positions were squared during
Friday’s initial bounce or simply dumped into the market sometime
afterwards in order to avoid carrying positions over the weekend. This
morning in Asia, day-traders seemed rather to be scratching around for
reasons to sell the euro rather than to buy it. The satisfactory turnout in
yesterday’s Iraqi elections, for example, was advanced as the reason for
the dollar’s early strength. However, the dollar is not as strong now as it
was on Friday. At the end of last week, most observers expected a wave of
violence and a patchy turnout. Thus, although we still expect additional
euro-weakness to 1.2950, such a decline (and certainly any lower) could
be due to the creation of new short-positions. In this case, one should not
be too surprised to see good demand from profit-takers at slightly lower
levels. To the upside, the risk-limit to the bearish view remains at 1.3100.
To achieve a stabilisation, the euro needs only to surpass 1.3145.
Royal Bank of Scotland (favorisiert)
EUR/USD
Price remains confined within its 1.2925 to 1.3125 interweek consolidation range extremes, with intermediate levels located at 1.2980, 1.3040 and 1.3080. Bias remains for a downside resolution of the aforementioned range, with a failure of the 1.2925 support expected to fuel losses towards 1.2825, 1.2710 then 1.2485. A recovery through 1.3125 would negate the downside potential and fuel a 1.3210/1.3300 retracement rally.
Intraday strategy: Suggest selling into the 1.3080/1.3125 resistance zone, targeting the 1.2925 range lows. Alternatively, wait to sell a failure of the 1.2925 support in anticipation of the 1.2825/1.2710 move.
mfg
füx
akuteller Stand: 1,3034
je länger wir uns in der Range befinden, desto heftiger dürfte dann der Ausbruch in eine Richtung erfolgen...Bollinger-Bänder ziehen sich auch schon stark zusammen, was auch eine baldige höhere Volatilität ankündigt...
auch wenns schwer fällt...ich warte auf den Ausbruch oder einen Test der oberen/unteren Rangebegrenzung..
mfg
füx
Saxo Brüder werden täglich bullischer:
EURUSD
Yesterday’s action underlined the notion that 1.3000 is critical support as EUR/USD rallied to just short of 1.3100 overnight. 1.3060 is now minor support – but the pair could vacillate unpredictably for the balance of today until the FOMC announcement is out of the way. 1.3000 is the line in the sand to the downside, while a rise above 1.3120 could kick into gear a further rally to 1.3300. Higher still, we’ll focus on 1.3460 as a sign that the pair is ready to try for a new summit and beyond to 1.3850+.
dt. Bank:
EUR USD (1.3075) The month of February came in like a lamb
yesterday. The day’s range, a modest half-percent, suggested that not
even day-traders were actively trying to get into the market. There was little
of the familiar talk about central bank buying or dollar repatriation. Nor did
the release of US economic data have any noticeable impact on the price –
the euro still traded near the low of the day after the release of worse-thanexpected
ISM data. A few hours later, however, the euro began a
determined, one-way march higher that resulted in a peak at 1.3090 in Asia
this morning
We do not believe that the latest euro-strength reflects any growing
conviction among the short-term crowd. It is more likely to be medium-term
demand (similar to what we saw last week*) or bids from long-term
sources. Day-traders are more likely to perceive the move to the upper end
of the recent price range as a selling opportunity. Thus, one should expect
euro-bearish market chatter (e.g. prospect of a strong non-farm payroll
number on Friday, FOMC, etc) to hold sway today. Any break above
1.3120, however, will mean a stabilisation for the single-currency. This will
probably coincide with the stop-loss repurchase of many of these bearish
engagements and a more robust rebound to 1.3265. To the downside, the
first support is only to be found near yesterday’s 1.2990/00 low. It is only a
break there that would signal more weakness for the euro – but only down
to 1.2910.
Royal Bank of Scotland schlafen heute noch...
Zinsentscheid, Arbeitsmarktdaten, Rede von Bush und G7 Treffen stehen in den kommenden Tagen an...man darf gespannt sein...
füx
auch nach der gestrigen Zinsentscheidung + Rede von Bush bleibt der Euro zum $ in der alten Range (1,2925 - 1,3125)...
aktueller Chart:
Tageschart Euro/USD :
Unsicherheit im Euro. Seit Tagen eine enge Range, auch die in der Wochenanalyse vorgestellte Flagge wurde bislang nicht verlassen. Der Bereich der Dochte bei ca. 1,31 der Tage vom 19.01./24.01/25.01. bis 27.01. stellen jedoch in Verbindung mit der Widerstandslinie bei 1,3137 ein kräftiges Widerstandsniveau dar. Wird diese Zone nach oben verlassen besteht eine gute Chance auf eine Erholung in Richtung 1,33 - ein Break nach unten durch die 1,2978 dagegen gibt kurzfristiges Potential bis mind. 1,2920 mit Chance auf 1,2842.
mfg
füx
im euro/dollar...
wüsste nicht, warum das so kommen sollte.
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thx Pichel
mfg
füx
Market focus may be on a Friday speech by Greenspan (not to mention the US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls), in which he is to discuss the Current Account situation in London (this may be the Fed’s greatest concern…) so USD bulls beware, as it is hard to imagine that Mr. Greenspan has anything USD positive to say on that subject.
EURUSD
EUR/USD is still flopping around in the range after minor support failed to hold yesterday. This would seem to increase the likelihood of a try below the psychologically key 1.3000 – but the pair may not tarry below that level for long if it goes there. Further out, we still favour a rise back to 1.3120 resistance and beyond toward 1.3300 unless the pair fall to below 1.2925 final support and hold there after Friday’s event risks are out of the way.
Deutschbänker:
EUR USD (1.3025) There was a lot of news on which short-term
traders could have acted yesterday. But, for the most part, the news did not
form any part of the decision-making process. The outcomes of data and
events were too close to consensus to disrupt a game-plan that for many of
them, thanks to the euro’s recovery towards the upper end of the recent
price range, included a short-sale. Thus, although Germany’s five million
unemployed (impressive only in absolute terms) grabbed the headlines and
Bush’s deficit reduction plans (still unpublished) drew applause, their only
value was their ability to bolster the confidence of euro-bears. Ultimately,
the euro fell to a 1.3010 NY low and we suspect that profits were taken.
However, there is increasing talk about a good US payroll figure on Friday,
which leads us to believe that some shorts could still exist or, at least, that
day-traders will try to resell on a bounce.
The stabilisation point for the euro remains at 1.3120. If it is overtaken, it
will almost certainly do so with many short -term bears aboard. In this case
look for hasty short-covering to lift the single-currency to 1.3265. The first
intermediate resistance stands at 1.3075. To the downside, the first support
remains near 1.2995. This is not a particularly robust point, but a break
would only signal a decline to 1.2910 in the first instance.
Royal Bank of Scotland:
Intraday Strtegie:Intraday strategy: Suggest selling a failure of the 1.3000 support and/or intraday rallies into the 1.3085/1.3125 resistance for the anticipated 1.2710/1.2485 decline (confirmed by a subsequent failure of the 1.2925 range low).
mfg
füx