Der USA Bären-Thread
01. August 2007
US-IMMOBILIENKRISE
Kapitalmarkt unter Dampf
Verunsicherung in der Finanzbranche: Reißt die US-Immobilienkrise auch deutsche Banken mit nach unten? Laut einem Zeitungsbericht stand die Katastrophe unmittelbar bevor. Auch Experten warnen - doch die Geldhäuser selbst wiegeln ab.
weiter unter :
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,497691,00.html
bye bye peet
do you know - there´s a story about a new-born child and the sparrow´s song
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Ich nehme an, die drei Wochen werden durch den historischen Vergleich bestimmt. Würde mich auch über ein anderes Argument freuen!
Vielleicht sind die Märkte schneller geworden und erzwingen eine frühere Entscheidung.
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Der Hintergrund für eine erwartete Zwischenerholung (ob auf diesem oder einem etwas tieferen Niveau bleibt abzuwarten) ist die Psychologie: Wer engagierter Bulle ist legt diese Gesinnung nicht von heute auf morgen ab. Es dauert seine Zeit, bis die Bärenargumente vom Ohr durch das Klein- zum Großhirn gelangen. Ein starker Kursrutsch wird daher zunächst als Kaufgelegenheit interpretiert.
Erst wenn die Erholung nicht so reibungslos läuft wie erhofft und sogar die alten Tiefs unterschritten werden ist es soweit, dass beim Durchschnittsbullen Panik aufkommt.
Die Erfahrung lehrt offensichtlich, dass dieser Umschaltprozess einige Wochen benötigt. 1987 und 1998 waren es beide Male genau 4 Wochen, daher meine Strategie. Ob es diesmal schneller geht kann sein, aber der teuerste Spruch an der Börse ist immernoch "Und diesmal ist es anders!"
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Wed Aug 1, 2007 2:49PM EDT
By Kevin Krolicki
DETROIT, Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. auto sales dropped in July as weakness in the housing market sapped demand, increasing pressure on the embattled Detroit-based automakers and hitting Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research) with its first sales decline in almost three years.
General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a drop in sales of nearly 19 percent, a downturn that underscored the risks for the No. 1 U.S. automaker a day after it surprised Wall Street by posting stronger-than-expected second quarter results.
Ford Motor Co.'s (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) sales dropped almost 17 percent, reflecting slower showroom traffic and an 18-percent decline in sales for Ford's market-leading F-Series pickup trucks.
GM said it expected industry-wide sales had dropped about 10 percent in July. Both GM and Ford said the deepening slump put their more-optimistic full-year sales expectations at risk, a development that could prompt production cutbacks and more aggressive discounting.
Toyota, which had consistently bucked the downturn in U.S. sales, posted 3.5 percent sales decline, its first such drop since August 2004.
Sales for smaller rival Honda Motor Co. (7267.T: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 3 percent, despite stepped-up incentive spending.
On a year-to-date basis, Toyota overtook Ford in sales to claim the No. 2 position in the U.S. market, but the automaker's North American sales chief said the economy was crimping demand across the board.
"The industry stumbled this month on continued housing weakness," Toyota's Jim Lentz said in a statement.
Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (7201.T: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a 6 percent gain on stronger sales of its newer Versa subcompact and Altima sedan. By contrast, Nissan-branded truck sales dropped 10 percent.
"Some of the housing issues (and) fluctuating fuel prices are keeping consumers off balance," Nissan Division chief Bill Bosley told Reuters.
Wall Street analysts and most major automakers, including GM and Toyota, track monthly sales results after adjusting for the number of sales days.
On that basis, July had one fewer day than a year earlier, meaning an almost four-percentage-point difference between unadjusted and adjusted sales results for the month.
Chrysler Group, a majority of which is being sold off by DaimlerChrysler AG (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), posted an 8 percent drop in July sales on an unadjusted basis.
Analysts had expected July sales to show a year-on-year decline, but the slump at the start of the summer selling season, when manufacturers typically look to clear inventory, was more pronounced than many had anticipated.
U.S. auto sales, one of the leading indicators of consumer spending, began slowing in the second-quarter and the additional effects of a weakening housing market and relatively high gasoline prices capped demand in July, executives said.
Overall vehicle sales, including heavier trucks, had run at an annualized rate of about 16.7 million vehicles in the first half but appeared to have dropped to a rate near 15.7 million in July, GM's chief sales analyst Paul Ballew said.
MORE AGGRESSIVE DISCOUNTING
The weaker sales for the industry in July came despite stepped-up incentive spending.
On a combined basis, the average new car incentive, including cash rebates and concessional financing, cost manufacturers $2,524 in July, up 4 percent from a year earlier, according to industry tracking service Edmunds.com.
The Detroit-based manufacturers led the pack on incentives, with Chrysler at $4,82, followed by GM at $3,130 and Ford at $2,984 on average, Edmunds said.
But in a continuation of a recent trend, major Japanese manufacturers also discounted more aggressively in July.
Toyota increased its incentive spending almost 48 percent year-on-year to $1,492 per vehicle in July, while Honda's spending jumped 28 percent to $1,146, according to Edmunds.
Auto sales incentives are widely tracked by analysts as an indication of the relative profitability of competing automakers and the pressure they face to move inventory.
The market for pickup trucks, which accounts for about 13 percent of overall U.S. auto sales, has become the most fiercely contested segment, as automakers sacrifice margins with expensive sales offers in order to protect market share.
In July, GM, Ford, Toyota and Chrysler were all offering interest-free financing and cash rebates to bolster truck sales, which are closely tied to construction spending and housing starts.
Da spielen ganz große Jungs. Die wollen wohl ihren Krempel unter die Leute bringen, bevor es richtig rummst.
Aber Gott sei Dank irrt der Chart ja nie... ;-)
http://www.ariva.de/top_a112136
die Kursreaktion jetzt passt doch perfekt ins Bild! Sind Argumente für Metropolis' Theorie...
Lucifer's Börsenweisheit des Tages: Wenn ja, dann nein, ansonsten nicht...
Gott sei Dank fahr ich am Freitag in Urlaub. Dann brauch´ ich mir dieses Gehampel erst mal nicht mehr ansehen.
American International Group Inc., the world's biggest insurer, may be sitting on losses of as much as $2.3 billion from its holdings of securities linked to subprime mortgages, analysts said.
In a ``worst-case scenario,'' AIG may lose $2.3 billion from its holdings of securities linked to subprime mortgages, those given to borrowers with poor or limited credit, A.G. Edwards Inc. analysts in St. Louis said today in a report. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. issued a report today estimating losses of as much as $1.4 billion.
AIG, which hasn't formally disclosed its holdings, owned about $33 billion of securities linked to U.S. subprime mortgages at the end of March, spokesman Chris Winans wrote in a July 23 e-mailed statement to Bloomberg News. Shares of New York-based AIG tumbled 10 percent since the end of June on concerns that declines in subprime securities may hurt earnings. The drop, and AIG's lack of disclosure, prompted analysts at A.G. Edwards, Goldman and Citigroup Inc. to release reports today estimating AIG's possible losses.
The insurer's subprime holdings are ``one of the essential concerns overhanging the stock,'' Joshua Shanker, an analyst at Citigroup in New York said in his report. AIG shares will probably ``continue to feel investor pressure as long as many questions on subprime go unanswered.'' AIG may lose 82 cents a share for each $10 billion invested, based on a decline in the value of the securities of 25 percent, Shanker said. That would be as much as $8.5 billion.
Shares Fall
AIG shares fell 94 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $63.24 at 3:39 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The company's price to book value fell to 1.45 times today, its lowest ever, Citigroup analysts said today in a report.
``Any investor would want to know there's such a significant exposure in a subprime market that's quickly heading south,'' said Lynn Turner, a former chief accountant at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. ``Investors need information that gives them a good picture of the exposure to losses on the loans, the likelihood of those losses occurring and the magnitude of potential losses.''
Goldman analyst Thomas Cholnoky based his calculations on AIG having $33 billion invested in subprime securities, a number the analysts said they derived from ``market sources.'' Defaults on subprime mortgages, given to people with poor credit, have risen to a 10-year high.
``The market's recent reaction is focused on concerns about the subprime mortgages in the company's general investment portfolio,'' Cholnoky said in the report. ``This is not a liquidity crisis for AIG as it is highly unlikely that it would be forced to sell these bonds.''
AAA Rated
About 3.6 percent of AIG's $814.4 billion in cash and investments, or $29 billion, was in subprime-mortgage bonds, Winans said in the e-mail that responded to questions. About 0.5 percent, or $4 billion, was in collateralized debt obligations.
The investments are ``virtually all in highly rated investment securities,'' Winans said.
Less than $300,000 of AIG's subprime holdings are rated below investment grade, Winans said. About 86 percent were ranked AAA and 11 percent were AA by at least one ratings firm, he said. Only one was downgraded in recent months, he said. Debt rated below Baa3 by Moody's and BBB- by Standard & Poor's are considered high-yield, high-risk, or junk.
Credit Suisse Group analysts in a July 19 report estimated that no U.S. life insurer had more than 3 percent of ``general account assets'' in debt linked to subprime loans, citing conversations with executives.
Four Times
AIG owns about four times as much debt from subprime-linked CDOs as Allianz SE, Europe's biggest insurer.
Allianz said last week it had about 1.4 billion euros ($1.91 billion) in collateralized debt and loan obligations. Munich-based Allianz has about 70 million euros in provisions for these investments, of which about 50 percent are connected to subprime U.S. mortgages, the company said.
MBIA Inc., based in Armonk, New York, Ambac Financial Group Inc. in New York and Hamilton, Bermuda-based Security Capital Assurance Ltd. all reported declines in the value of their holdings. Bear Stearns, based in New York and the second-biggest underwriter of mortgage bonds, extended $1.6 billion in credit in June to one of two hedge funds that collapsed after wrong-way bets on the securities.
Declining Value
AAA rated subprime securities are trading between 95 cents and 98 cents on the dollar, according to a July 30 report from RBC Capital Markets Corp. AAA bonds from CDOs made up of low- rated mortgage securities are selling at yields of 1.75 percentage points more than benchmark rates, up from 0.32 percentage point in January, according to data provided by New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co.
AIG will report results for the quarter ended June 30 this month. The company may earn $1.61 per share, according to the average estimate of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, up from $1.58 in the same period a year earlier. Analysts' estimates for AIG exclude realized investment gains or losses.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=aGuw9h.w2Ksc&refer=home
Mich hat die Zeitabschätzung interessiert, die ID relaxed ist Programm ;-)
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