Der USA Bären-Thread

wie kommt man zu so einer Zahl;
ganz einfach; man revidiere die Vorquartale um -0,5% nach unten;
wer interessiert sich schon für das Vorjahr?
ohne die Revisionen hätten wir also ca. +2,9% reporten müssen.

(Fortsetzung) - Im ersten Quartal war die US-Wirtschaft um 0,6 Prozent
gewachsen. Das Ministerium revidierte auch die Wachstumsangaben für die Jahre
2004 bis 2006 nach unten. So wuchs die Wirtschaft 2006 beispielsweise nicht um
3,3 Prozent wie bisher veranschlagt, sondern lediglich um 2,9 Prozent.

   Die Konsumausgaben, die für zwei Drittel des Wachstums der US-Wirtschaft
verantwortlich sind, erhöhten sich im zweiten Quartal nur um 1,3 Prozent. Das
ist der geringste Zuwachs seit dem vierten Quartal 2005. Nicht mehr ganz so
stark wie im Vorquartal wurde das Wachstum durch die Ausgaben für Wohngebäude
gedrückt. Höhere Exporte und steigende Lagerbestände wirkten unterdessen
positiv.(...)/FX/jha/js  

3,4 / 4 = 0,85% . Es wird immer auf das Jahr hochgerechnet, damit es besser aussieht.  

Annahme Ende 2005 = 100

BIP Ende 05               = 100      A
BIP Ende 06 vor Revision  = 103,3    B
BIP Ende 06 nach Revision = 102,9    C

BIP Ende Q2 07 = C*(1+(3,4%/2)) = 104,65 D

Jetzt aufgepaßt und die Dreisatz-Gehirnwindung aktivieren

Gesucht ist die annualisierte Wachstumsrate von B nach D:

D = B * (1+(x/2))

also
104,65 = 103,3 * (1+(x/2))

--> x =((104,65/103,3) -1)* 2

x = +2,61%  

Confidence among U.S. consumers rose less than expected in July as gasoline prices dropped from record highs and the labor market continued to show strength, a private report today indicated.

The Reuters/University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment rose to 90.4 from 85.3 in June. Last month's figure was the lowest in 10 months. The reading was below the university's preliminary figure, released on July 13, showing the confidence level at 92.4.

Cheaper gasoline and greater job stability helped boost the index from its lowest level in 10 months and may support consumer spending even as stock prices plunge. Most of the Michigan survey responses came before this week's market rout, in which the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost more than 3 percent.

``Consumers have been hammered by high gasoline and food prices but still are looking at a healthy job market and as long as you're employed and comfortable in your employment, then confidence is not going to decline much,'' said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto. ``Stocks are secondary to jobs in these types of surveys.''

Stocks Rise

Markets plunged since then, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ending yesterday at 1482.66, down from the record trading close of 1553.08 reached on July 19. Stocks rose in today's early trading.

Economists forecast the index would end July at 91.2, according to the median of 58 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 89 to 95.

The group's measure of expectations, which some economists view as a proxy of future consumer spending, rose to 81.5 from 74.7 in June. The gauge of current conditions, which reflects Americans' perceptions of their financial situation and whether it's a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, rose to 104.5 from 101.9.

Consumer spending rose at a 1.3 percent annual pace last quarter and the economy expanded at a 3.4 percent rate, the Commerce Department said earlier today. Spending probably will accelerate in the second half of the year, though not reach the 3.7 percent rate reported for the first quarter, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast.

``The linchpin of consumer confidence has been favorable job and income prospects,'' Richard Curtin, director of the survey, said in a statement today. ``Without this mainstay, consumers would find rising food and gas prices harder to accommodate and their record debt more difficult to repay.''

Initial jobless claims dropped this month, showing there is some resilience in the labor market. That may help support income growth, which some economists have credited with giving consumers wherewithal to spend even as high gasoline prices and lower home values sap discretionary income.

Gasoline Prices

The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline has come off the record $3.23 at the pump that was set on May 23 and ended yesterday at $2.92, according to figures from AAA. Prices still are up 26 percent this year.

Consumers in the Michigan survey maintained their outlook on inflation for the next year. They forecast an inflation rate of 3.4 percent in one year, the same as in June and said inflation probably will run 3.1 percent over the next five years, compared with a forecast of 2.9 percent in last month's survey.

Starbucks Corp., the world's largest chain of coffee shops, said July 23 it will raise the price of its drinks by an average of 9 cents a cup to counter higher dairy, energy and coffee costs.

``Things are moving up, and this is the right time to do this,'' spokesman Brandon Borrman said of the price and cost increases. The company previously raised prices in October, by 5 cents a cup, or 1.9 percent.

Office Depot Inc., the world's second-largest office-supply retailer, said yesterday that slower sales of furniture, office supplies and technology were a drag on second-quarter profit and revenue. Sales at North American stores open at least a year fell 5 percent, marking the first time in more than three years that same-store sales decline in consecutive quarters.

Other retailers are experiencing better results. Sales at U.S. retailers rose 3 percent last week from the same period a year ago, the second-biggest jump since April, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities LLC said July 24. The group forecast sales at stores open at least a year may rise as much as 3 percent this month, helped by early back-to-school shopping.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=aksMS2QUG.GM&refer=home  

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Price deterioration in subprime mortgages has resulted in approximately $4.7 billion of unrealized losses for mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to report published by Citigroup. That is about 6 percent of the equity capital of the two government-sponsored enterprises.
Citigroup, in the report published on Thursday, estimates that the two companies' retained portfolios contain $182 billion of subprime bonds, almost all of which are rated triple-A, based on public disclosure by Fannie Mae (FNM.N) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N) and their regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
Citigroup also said in its report the triple-A rated securities have significant credit enhancement that serves to protect the securities against losses even in extreme scenarios.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have exposure to over $3 trillion in mortgages due to their guarantee portfolios and $1.4 trillion in their retained portfolios, but the vast majority of this exposure is prime mortgages, Citigroup said.

Citigroup said delinquencies in Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's guarantee portfolios have not increased so far this year, supporting the two GSEs' assertion that their portfolios are predominantly prime mortgage portfolios. "Given the long investment horizons and stable funding sources available to Fannie and Freddie, there is little reason to expect that they will realize these losses in the near term," Citigroup said.On a held-to-maturity basis, the only write-down would occur from permanent impairment as a result of realized credit losses, the company said.
Citigroup said it expects these impairment-related losses to be considerably smaller than its topline estimate of $4.7 billion in mark-to-market losses.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070727/bs_nm/...cial_fannie_freddie_dc_1  

The tentacles of the subprime mortgage debacle have now reached even further. American Home Mortgage Investment, which specializes in both prime and “Alt-A” loans, which are riskier than prime loans but safer than subprime loans, is laying off 500 employees nationwide Thursday.The Melville, N.Y.-based company is one of the largest mortgage bankers, with a market capitalization of $577 million and more than 7,000 employees nationwide. In 2006 American Home Mortgage funded $58.9 billion dollars in loans.

A senior staffer at AHM, who only agreed to speak anonymously, told Forbes.com that in their office, which only has 100 employees, 25 positions are being cut. “The company is calling this ‘the largest lay-off in AHM company history’ and a necessary reaction to market trends,” the employee said. "Unless volume increases in the next 60 to 90 days, most feel these lay-offs are only the beginning and additional lay-offs seem inevitable."Shares of the company plunged 6.5%, or 74 cents, to $10.65 at the close on Thursday.....
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/07/26/...arkets42.html?partner=rss  

ok, die Sitzung in US ist vorüber. Die erhoffte Erholung bliebt aus und die Indizes haben auf Tagestief geschlossen. Der Dow befindet sich nahezu genau auf der Unterstützung bei 13250. Psychologisch sehr bedenklich das Ganze: AL schrieb in einem anderen Thread was von "schwarzem Montag". M.E. hängt es nun davon ab, wie Montag Asien und EU laufen; entsprechend werden sich die US-Anleger inspirieren lassen.

Und eine Bitte noch: Ich weiß nicht, ob überhaupt noch jemand die Hiobsbotschaften liest, die in diesem Thread eingestellt werden. Ich persönlich nicht mehr, denn wir befinden uns in der Psycho-Phase, in der Fundamentals letztlich egal sind. Was mich jedoch interessieren würde wären echt NEUE Meldungen, Housing/Subprime ist ja ein alter Hut.

Vielleicht kommt ja hier unter den Mitlseren eine diesbezügliche Diskussion in Gang. Schön wäre es, wenn sich der Thread in diese Richtung weiterentwickeln würde.

Schönes Wochenende euch allen!
 

Ich glaube ehrlich gesagt nicht, dass sich Wall St von Dax und Nikkei was sagen lässt.

Wahrscheinlich fliegen den Amis jetzt alle Fehler der letzten Jahre und Jahrzehnte gesammelt um die Ohren: das Handelsbilanzdefizit, das Leben auf Pump, das Greenspansche Kaschieren der Auswüchse, die PE-, Hedging-  und Housingblase und so weiter und so weiter...

Das eigentliche Prob ist nur, dass wir uns davon nicht freimachen können.

Früher hat man sein Heil in Sachwerten wie Gold geucht. Das klappt aber auch nicht mehr. Was also macht man heute??    

hat jetzt auch das Handtuch geschmissen

__________________________________________

Es wiederholt sich ununterbrochen an der Wall - Street

 

und hat auch das Handtuch geschmissen

weekly        ( in 3234 ist auch ein weekly Chart )

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Es wiederholt sich ununterbrochen an der Wall - Street

 

July 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks plunged for a second day after concern that the global boom in takeovers is ending sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its worst weekly drop in five years.Marsh & McLennan Cos., Wyndham Worldwide Corp. and Dillard's Inc. pushed the S&P 500 lower as investors abandoned shares that had risen on takeover speculation. Baker Hughes Inc., the world's third-biggest oilfield contractor, helped send energy shares to the steepest decline in the S&P 500 after reporting a decrease in earnings.Stocks retreated after Cadbury Schweppes Plc became the first company to delay an acquisition because of ``extreme volatility'' in debt markets. Banks have failed to sell at least $32 billion of takeover-related debt to investors, reducing their ability to finance new deals.

``The bubble has been in private equity from the cheap financing and when the bubble bursts, there is going to be pain,'' said Tom Wirth, who manages $1.8 billion as senior investment officer at Chemung Canal Trust in Elmira, New York. ``There'll be continued volatility and downside pressure for the market.'' .....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...d=20601103&sid=aCylGnrk3oS8&refer=us  

und extra für metropolis:
Shares of AutoNation   fell 60 cents, or 3.0%, to $19.44, after Bear Stearns analyst Michael Geoghegan downgraded the company to "peer perform" from "outperform." Geoghegan pointed to AutoNation's heavy exposure to regions with slumping housing markets.AutoNation operates more than 300 new vehicle franchises throughout the United States. More than half of its revenue comes from its stores in California and Florida.
Housing markets in both states have been particularly dogged by the recent downturn. Buyers there took advantage of lax lending standards to acquire homes they couldn't afford. Their extravagance caught up with them when they couldn't pay their mortgages. In response, lenders tightened credit requirements and helped dampen home demand at a time when supplies were high.
Geoghegan said the housing problems are now spilling over to other sectors. They are rattling consumer confidence, as reflected in AutoNation's latest quarterly performance, which missed expectations.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/07/27/...-cx_af_0727markets37.html  

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks will continue to fall next week, in continuation of a sell-off that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average experience its worst week in over four years, due to nervousness that the easy-money binge of the last few years has come to an end.
Another heavy week of earnings, including 99 reports from S&P 500 companies, capped by the all-important July employment report on Friday, also awaits investors.
But stocks will remain vulnerable to any new signs of distress from hedge funds hit by their exposure to bad U.S. home loans, as well as from credit markets, where Wall Street firms and corporations are finding it harder and harder to obtain financing.
"We're finishing up earnings season and the general tone has been positive," said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of the U.S. equities group at Deutsche Bank. "But it's been overwhelmed by the whole subprime and credit-market issues." ....nvestors next will remain on the lookout for more hedge-fund troubles globally. One of the latest bouts of anxiety came Thursday with news that a second Australian hedge fund, this one partly owned by Dutch financial-services giant ABN Amro   also has run into trouble because of its exposure to U.S. subprime mortgages.
There were also unsubstantiated market rumors about German and Japanese funds taking a hit from bad U.S. home loans. irms seeking to finance the leverage buy-outs of a majority of DaimlerChrysler AG's  and unit Allison Transmission had to delay the deals this week as credit markets refused to provide them with the expected advantageous terms....
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/...CA8173A269B%7D&dist=hplatest  

BEING STREET SMART       By Sy Harding
MARKET JITTERS!   July 27, 2007.

The potential problems in debtland I've been writing about the last couple of months came to roost on the markets with a vengeance this week.
I mean four triple-digit down days in the last six days. A 5% plunge for the S&P 500 for the week. Extremely heavy trading volume on the down-days, compared to the light volume as the market rallied to new highs a few weeks ago.

What's going on?  

It's no secret the stock market had been able to withstand an uncommon number of negatives over the preceding six months or so. Most obvious were high and rising oil and gasoline prices, a slowing economy, slowing earnings, inflation fears, record consumer debt, a worsening real estate slump, and a collapse in the sub-prime mortgage sector.

It was also no secret that the support holding up the market, in spite of those historical negatives, was the liquidity created by the huge multi-billion dollar corporate buyouts, and corporate stock buybacks, that were in the news every day.
It was also no secret that those deals were being financed not by conventional business loans held by banks, but by 'less than investment grade' corporate bonds and debt obligations (CDOs), originated by banks and then sold to investors. It was very similar to the way the frothy part of the real estate boom was financed not by conventional mortgages held by banks, but by low-quality mortgages originated by lenders, then packaged into collateralized-mortgage-obligations (CMOs) that were sold to investors.

Rising mortgage defaults in the housing sector decimated the sub-prime mortgage sector months ago, forcing more than 80 sub-prime lenders to close up. Wall Street kept investors bullish by assuring them it would be confined to the sub-prime sector.
Four weeks ago two Bear Stearns hedge funds invested heavily in those CMOs revealed losses that last week resulted in them being declared worthless. That was the first warning that the debt/credit bubble was bursting across a larger universe than just the housing industry. Investors in all types of packaged debt began to take notice. But Wall Street said no problem, it's a 'Goldilock's' economy.

In last weekend's column I noted the problems encountered the previous week by a couple of high profile LBOs (leveraged buyouts) that indicated the virus was spreading to corporate debt. Banks had committed to financing the $40 billion buyout of Chrysler by Cerberus Capital Management, and the $18 billion buyout of U.K. drug store chain Alliance Boots, by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts. But the banks were unexpectedly running into problems finding investors willing to buy the debt, even by sweetening the terms with higher interest rates.

I noted that it "put the banks in a precarious position, since banks are sitting on roughly $220 billion in LBO deals in the U.S. and $50 billion in Europe that they've already committed to. And if they have trouble selling the debt to investors prior to the closings they get stuck with it themselves, a risk exposure not intended when they committed to the deals."

Well that is just what did happen this week. JP Morgan Chase, the lead banker on the Chrysler buyout deal revealed they had not been able to sell all the debt needed for the deal to investors, and would take on $10 billion of it themselves, and try to sell it later in the year. And the eight banks committed to financing the Alliance Boots buyout had to withdraw their offering of $10.3 billion in bonds, saying they will keep the debt on their own books for now.

Those events were at the core of the market's problems this week. They were exacerbated by news of several other debt deals being in trouble, as institutions, hedge funds, and other investors reassess the risk in such deals. And then the troubles piled on. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts will probably have to postpone the large initial public offering (IPO) it had announced. It wanted the investor capital from the IPO to complete the financing on 11 LBO deals it struck last year.

The picture was not helped by more bad news from the housing industry, in the form of another plunge in home sales in June. And on Friday came a warning from mortgage-giant Fannie Mae that it could have $4.7 billion in unrealized losses on its books from the further deterioration of sub-prime mortgages it holds.

A tsunami of problems that will not go away easily, or soon.

The stock market has been supported primarily by liquidity created by corporate buyouts and share buybacks, and the lending windows at banks and brokerage firms for those kinds of deals were hammered closed this week.

It looks like the market correction that seemed likely in this year's unfavorable seasonal period has begun, and that as I expected, its catalyst is the bursting of the one remaining bubble, the debt/credit bubble.

It will not be in a straight line down as this week was. There will be rallies as Wall Street brings all its guns to bear on containing the damage.

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., DeLand, FL, publisher of The Street Smart Report Online at www.streetsmartreport.com

 

Bei Comms und Large wurden Posis in den letzten Wochen in Trendrichtung weiter ausgebaut, also alles weiter wie gehabt.
S&P steht jetzt am Februarhoch bzw. 50 FiboRT (Normalkorrektur)dazu verläuft bei ca.1550 der Aufwärtstrend und die 200er GDs(SMA und EMA) ab hier sollte eigentlich
eine Gegenreaktion kommen.
 

NDX Comp mal als ideales Echoblasenbeispiel was aber mehr oder weniger auch für die anderen Indizes gilt.
Jetzt nur eine normale Korrektur welche idealerweise mehrere Wochen(4-8) dauert und als
W oder Tasse verläuft so wie immer die letzten Jahre nur eben mit Lower High am Schluß.
Nächster großer Verfallstermin ist der 21. September zu diesen Zeitpunkt könnten
die Comms(Cotreport) ihre Longposis teuer abrechnen wenn sie einen Shortsquezze schaffen und danach der Crash.(ShortInterest ähnlich wie Margindebt auf Rekordniveau)
Allternativ jetzt der Crash/Abverkauf ähnlich wie 1998(was aber viele glauben) oder
alles wird gut.
 

Ende September = Bumm

...könnte gut passen, weil dann zahlreiche Investoren zum ersten Mal mitgeteilt bekommen, dass die gates ihrer Fonds "closed" sind und sich die Kohle nicht abziehen lässt (Kündigung der Anteilsscheine oft nur zum Quartalsende möglich).

Da kann dann schon Panik aufkommen...

 

 

http://www.lennar.com/

 weekly

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Es wiederholt sich ununterbrochen an der Wall - Street

                                            

      

 

 

 

http://www.drhorton.com/

 

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Es wiederholt sich ununterbrochen an der Wall - Street

                                            

      

 

Deine Charts sind sicherlich auch hier interessant, da es um strauchelnde US-Homebuilder geht. Trotzdem würde ich mich freuen, wenn Du solche unkommentierten Schnittmuster (wo ist die Zeitachse in # 3244?) in den Daytrading-Threads veröffentlichst, die viele "Bären" ja ohnehin mitlesen. Aus Chart 3244 z. B. kann ich persönlich keine Handlungsempfehlung rauslesen.  Gut, jetzt ist eine weitere Unterstützung im Chart gefallen - eine wichtige sogar womöglich - , doch das "leichte Geld" wurde mMn mit Short bereits verdient - von denjenigen, die die Homebuilder aus fundamentalen Erwägungen "weiter oben" geshortet hatten (z. B. kurz nach dem Doppel-Top, als das erste charttechnische Shortsignal kam).

Horton hat sich bereits mehr als halbiert. Der Bruch der Unterstützung könnte sich ebensogut als "false break" erweisen. Zwar sagen viele Brancheninsider, dass das Schlimmste im US-Housingmarkt erst noch kommt. Fragt sich nur, ob die Homebuilder dann nicht schon wieder steigen, weil die Börse die dann absehbare Erholung vorwegnimmt.

Denn eins ist sicher: Die US-Housing-Krise - lange geleugnet - ist inzwischen ein sogar "vom Bärtigen" [B.B.] bestätigter Fakt, den jeder kennt. Geld verdient wird hingegen eher mit Gedanken, die noch nicht Allgemeingut geworden sind.
 

Relativ neu ist, dass die Junkbond-Krise aus dem Housing-Markt nun auf andere Kreditbereiche übergreift und z. B. ein Ab-Ebben der PE-Übernahmewelle zur Folge hat. Leidtragende sind große Finanzinstitute (Broker wie Merrill Lynch und Banken wie Citibank), die nun auf unverkäuflichen Junkbonds sitzenbleiben. Diese "Story" ist neu genug, dass sich hier ein Short lohnen könnte. Bei den US-Banken ist man charttechnisch zurzeit an der Stelle, als der "Horton"-Chart nach dem Doppeltop nach unten abzusacken begann.

Unten der Chart des XLF (SP-500 Subindex "Financials"), der mMn ein interessanterer Short-Kandidat ist als die Homebuilder JETZT.

---

Chartanalyse zu XLF:

Nach dem Bruch der blauen Aufwärtstrendlinie ist XLF jetzt - bei starkem Volumenanstieg - durch die Horizontalunterstützung bei 34,50 Dollar gefallen. Das Kursziel für einen Short ist die längerfristige Horizontalunterstützung bei ca. 27 Dollar, die zugleich ein 50 % RT des Anstiegs seit dem Tief in 2003 (20 Dollar) darstellt.

(Horton aus # 3244 ist etwa - sinngemäß bzw. übertragen betrachtet - bei 26,50 Dollar im XLF Chart, d. h. an einem Punkt, wo man schon mal wieder darüber nachdenken könnte, Shorts glattzustellen, weil das Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis langsam ungünstig wird.)
 

@Platsch

Das ist auch mein vermutetes Szenario. Die Bären haben ersteinmal genug verdient und sollten nicht zu gierig werden. Mittlerweile sind zu viele auf den Baisse-Zug aufgesprungen. Insofern könnte der August eine Erholung bringen, allerdings bis auf ein tieferes (!) Top (etwa in der Mitte zwischen ATH und jetzt). Ob der 21. September das Datum ist, zu dem die Banken die Kurse wie heiße Kartoffeln fallen lassen bleibt abzuwarten. Tastsache ist, dass sie aus Überlebenswillen die Kurse wann immer möglich hochziehen werden. Charttechnische Unterstützungen bieten sich also als auffanglinien an.

Sobald die Kurse jedoch nochmal bröckeln werden, steht der Crash vor der Tür, denn dann werden die Bullen endgültig die Hosen voll haben.

Einen Durchmarsch nach unten halte ich zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt für unwahrscheinlich, dafür lief die Korrektur bislang zu zivilisiert ab, insbesondere intraday. Auch ist Urlaubszeit, was zwar Schwäche bedeuten kann, aber nie einen Crash.  

Was ebenfalls gegen eine Crash zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt und für eine temporäre Erholung spricht ist die Nachrichtenlage: Die Unternehmens- und Konjunkturzahlen waren bisher zwar nicht berauschend, aber auch nicht katastrophal. Auslöser der Korrektur war lediglich die Angst (!) vor einer Zuspitzung der Housing-Krise und einen Durchschlag auf den Konsum, die Banken und Hedgefonds. Es wird sicher viele Bullen geben, die diese Angst noch (!) nicht teilen. Die Zahlen lassen sich ja auch noch (!) dementsprechend positiv interpretieren, zumindest mit etwas Fantasie.

Der Crash wird erst dann kommen, wenn sich die Anzeichen für eine Krise deutlich mehren oder - und das vermutete ich - eine neue Krise auftaucht. Der Kursverfall wird dann selbstverstärkend sein, weil dann ein gehebelter Hedgefonds nach dem nächsten Pleite gehen wird, was eine Kettenreaktion auslöst.

 

Mit MER hats letzte Woche gut geklappt: der CB6LYC4 liegt bei ca. + 80 %.
Da sind die 2% Kursverlust vom Freitag noch gar nicht drin.


 

Ein kleiner Hinweis an dieser Stelle, dass man die Entscheidung der Bank of Japan, deren Board-Member sich am 22.-23. August zusammenfinden, bzgl. einer etwaigen Zinserhöhung im Auge behalten sollte. Die wechselseitige Beziehung des Yens zu den Equities, sprich hier auch Börsen, erscheint mir recht stark, siehe auch stellvertretend dafür den beigefügten Chart DJW vs. Yen.

BOJ yet to decide timing of rate increase, Noda says     Friday, July 27, 2007

The Bank of Japan has yet to decide when it will next raise interest rates, BOJ Policy Board member Tadao Noda said Thursday, declining to be drawn into speculating on whether the bank will increase borrowing costs next month.

"Right now we have absolutely no preconceptions about how monetary policy will be managed," Noda said Thursday in a speech to business executives in Nara. "Personally, I assess economic statistics right up until each policy meeting."

Economists and investors expect the central bank to raise its overnight lending rate from 0.5 percent, the lowest in the industrialized world, at its Aug. 22-23 meeting. The Policy Board will be able to examine the impact of the July 29 Upper House election, second-quarter gross domestic product and data on production, prices and consumer spending.

"Bank of Japan policymakers are trying to avoid signaling any policy inclination ahead of the August meeting," said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at Lehman Brothers Japan Inc. in Tokyo. "Major events are coming in the weeks ahead, and they want to keep room for policy maneuvering."

Central bank Gov. Toshihiko Fukui, 71, said this month that rates need to gradually increase because consumer prices will "definitely" resume rising in the long term. Noda, 60, echoed that view in his speech.

"In order for the economy and prices to develop in line with our outlook, it's necessary that interest rates be adjusted gradually," Noda said. "If they aren't, this could increase the chance that our country's prospects for long-lasting economic growth will be hampered."

Noda, one of three board members to unsuccessfully propose raising the key rate in January, later told reporters that "no possibilities will be ruled out" at the August meeting.

He also said the business executives expressed concern about weakness in the yen.
"Several executives voiced concern over the weak yen and the impact an abrupt strengthening of the currency would have," Noda said at the news briefing. "I told them that we're aware of this issue and share their view of this risk."

The yen has weakened 4.8 percent against the euro and 1.1 percent versus the dollar this year as investors, encouraged by the country's low interest rates, borrow in the currency to buy higher-yielding assets overseas in so-called carry trades.
Stock and bond markets have calmed since February's global stock rout, Noda said, adding that policymakers need to monitor markets to check whether investors are taking excessive risks.

"I am always keeping watch on whether overly optimistic views by markets are causing people to take lopsided positions," he said in the speech.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20070727n1.html