Der USA Bären-Thread
So würden Investments aufgrund gesunkener Vermögenswerte an Attraktivität gewinnen.
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(ein für Charttechniker völlig unverständlicher Satz, übrigens)
etwas interessant war vor der Abwertung, wird es nach einer Abwertung interessanter?
Ok, das trifft zu, wenn es vorher überbewertet war.
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neben den Hausmarktdaten ein weiterer interessanter Nebenwert mit Zahlen:
AMBAC, einer der größten Kreditgaranten in den USA.
Könnte ähnliche Auswirkungen haben wie die Countrwide-Zahlen gestern.
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Angehängte Grafik:
screen_00141.jpg (verkleinert auf 65%)
screen_00141.jpg (verkleinert auf 65%)
Credit crunch to hit stocks, Morgan Stanley warns
Morgan Stanley said the trigger for a stock market fall could be a sudden unwinding of yen "carry trade" from Japan, a major source of global liquidity. The Bank of Japan in expected to raise rates a quarter point to 0.75pc in August.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/.../bcnmorgan123.xml
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Angehängte Grafik:
chartsp.png (verkleinert auf 63%)
chartsp.png (verkleinert auf 63%)
wenn die BoJ die Zinsen anhebt, geht's bergab.
Ich glaub da wirst Du niemand finden, der bei der Diskussion die Gegenseite vertritt; zumindest nicht hier im Thread;-)
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ist laut R. Suttmeier erkennbar am "schleichenden Bären-Markt" bei den regionalen US-Banken:
Market Analysis
The Wobbly Wall of Worry
By Richard Suttmeier
Street.com Contributor
7/24/2007 3:30 PM EDT
To borrow loosely from Pink Floyd, bad news may be just another brick in the proverbial wall of worry. However, that wall is starting to wobble as the bricks keep piling up higher. Let's take a look at what they are.
1. The homebuilders continue to slide to new 52-week lows.
2. The stealth bear market in financials is spreading.
- Shares of many community banks are falling like dominoes.
- Regional banks are increasing loan-loss provisions, as leader Bank of America (BAC) trades to a new 52-week low.
- Investment banks are struggling with wider credit spreads and continued fallout from subprime. Even top-performing Goldman Sachs (GS) , which hit an all-time high in late May, has fallen below its 200-day simple moving average for the first time since July 2005.
3. The Dow Earnings Scorecard is negative this quarter, as solid-gold earnings are built into Dow 14,000. So far, there have been seven wins and 12 losses; compare that to 21 wins and nine losses in the first-quarter earnings season.
- Dow components DuPont (DD) and McDonald's (MCD) were trading lower after their earnings announcements earlier today.
- What's new this quarter is how domestic issues are outweighing favorable international sales. Caterpillar (CAT) cited weakening North American demand on slowing residential construction as an earnings drag. Its stock was trading at an all-time high the day before its earnings report, but has since slipped. This was the first earnings report to illustrate that the weakening U.S. economy is more important for stocks than the global economy. DuPont dittoed Caterpillar's comments, as well.
- On July 17, Coca-Cola (KO) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported better-than-expected quarterly results and traded higher in the premarket. However, these stocks ended lower that day, which kept the Dow from closing above 14,000.
- Great earnings from IBM (IBM) after the July 18 close and from Honeywell (HON) before the July 19 open propelled the Dow to a close just above 14,000 on July 19. However, Caterpillar's premarket report on July 20 caused the Dow to reject the 14,000 level.
4. Earnings from overvalued and overbought tech stocks have been equally disappointing.
- Shares of Google (GOOG) plunged 8.5% from an all-time high of $558.58 on July 16 to its 50-day simple moving average at $510.78 on July 20. This sets a cautious tone for growth stocks.
- Intel (INTC) was another overvalued and overbought tech stock that dropped from a 52-week high.
- Earnings from Texas Instruments (TXN) were a disappointment after Monday's close, calling into question the demand for chips for cell phones and other electronic devices. It was overvalued and overbought before its quarterly reporting was released.
Earnings Reports to Focus On
The key earnings reports for the rest of this week come from three key tech stocks and three more Dow components. Momentum will be put to the test, as only one of the six is not overvalued, overbought and trading at a 52-week or all-time high. Here's a look at the names:
| Tech & Dow Earnings | 23-Jul Price | Rating | (-UV) / OV By | Fair Value | MOM | 5-Week MMA | Value Levels | Pivots | Risky Levels |
| 24-Jul-07 | |||||||||
| Amazon (AMZN) | $71.74 | HOLD | 51.50% | $47.35 | OB | $68.80 | 62.90 S | 73.20 S | 74.63 A |
| 25-Jul-07 | |||||||||
| Apple (AAPL) | $143.70 | HOLD | 31.10% | $107.96 | OB | $126.86 | 128.59 Q | none | |
| Boeing (BA) | $104.04 | HOLD | 10.10% | $94.47 | OB | $98.98 | 96.45 S | 99.99 Q / 100.83 Q | 108.86 S |
| Qualcomm (QCOM) | $42.75 | HOLD | -8.10% | $46.69 | DM | $43.50 | 38.48 W | 45.51 M / 45.97 Q | 51.90 Q / 53.18 S |
| 26-Jul-07 | |||||||||
| 3M (MMM) | $90.87 | HOLD | 14.50% | $79.40 | OB | $87.57 | 85.41 Q | 89.65 A | 97.66 S / 99.77 S |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | $93.44 | S BUY | 24.00% | $75.37 | OB | $86.20 | 82.28 Q | 87.66 S | 94.19 D |
| Key: MOM, momentum; OB, overbought; DM, declining momentum; RM, rising momentum; OS, oversold; F, flat; M, monthly; Q, quarterly; S, semiannual; A, annual. A value level is a price at which my models project that buyers will emerge; a risky level is a price at which investors are likely to reduce holdings, according to my models. A pivot is a value or risky level that has been breached in its particular time horizon; the stock will likely trade around this pivot. Source: RightSide.com | |||||||||
- Amazon (AMZN) : This stock has already tested my semiannual pivot at $73.20 and its annual risky level at $74.63 with a 52-week high at $75.35 on July 13. Investors have already had a chance to reduce positions before the risk of an earnings report from an extremely overvalued and overbought stock. The risk is to my semiannual value level at $62.90. (Hier lag Suttmeier falsch. AMZN hatte gestern blowout-Zahlen und stieg nachbörslich um 20 % - A.L.)
- Apple (AAPL) : It reached another all-time high of $145.22 just yesterday, and I do not show a risky level. Obviously, a huge earnings report is factored into the price of this overvalued and overbought stock. However, Apple was down today after AT&T's (T) report showed disappointing iPhone sales. The risk is to my quarterly value level at $128.59.
- Boeing (BA) : This name flew to a new all-time high of $104.55 yesterday, partly thanks to hype about the 787 Dreamliner, which is not yet in the company's profit-and-loss statement. The upside for this overvalued and overbought stock should be limited to my semiannual risky level at $108.86.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) : It has been on a slide, and my value level is the stock's 200-week simple moving average at $38.48. The stock tested $45.58 on July 19, which gave investors a chance to reduce positions between my monthly and quarterly pivots at $45.51 and $45.97.
- 3M (MMM) : This is another multinational that depends on international sales, so keep an eye on whether domestic issues take precedence for investors. The stock is also overvalued and overbought after reaching an all-time high of $92.32 on July 16. If the stock ends the day below my annual pivot at $89.65, any good earnings news may be factored into this stock.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) : It's rated a strong buy, according to ValuEngine, but after hitting another all-time high of $93.62, the stock is 24% overvalued with an extremely overbought weekly chart profile. It remains the only Dow component rated a strong buy, and when I profiled it on July 10, I mentioned that momentum traders can stay long this stock as long as it remains above my monthly pivot at $85.24. With Nymex crude oil peaking at $76.39 between my quarterly pivot at $74.48 and my quarterly resistance at $76.48, traders should take some gains on this name.
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Futures point to higher open after earnings news, subprime worries spark massive stock selloff; Amazon results a bright spot....
Dow Jones +58.00 Future
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
ich zitiere anderen user:
als Vollblutspekulant liebt Kosto die Inflation. Zumindest realpolitisch gesehen, scheint sie unabdingbar und notwendig in anbetracht der Massenhaften Schulden die unsere Wirtschaft produziert... sagt er. Ohne Inflation würde das System doch zusammenbrechen. Vor allem, schießt die Börse nach oben nach jede Staatliche Zinslockerung yeepee, das ist doch gut! Wie das Geld dadurch weniger Wert ist interessiert Kosto nicht.
Vom Goldstandard hält Kosto also auch nichts (Stichwort Goldnarren). Warum? Unmöglich sagt er. Kein Staat hält sich ja dran (die Kritik würde aber für alles Staatliches gelten, Herr Kosto. Zum Beispiel die Demokratie) . Dann schreibt Kosto natürlich vom notwendigen Verfall des Goldes. Und er verfehlt auch komplett seine Prognose, da Gold von dann an (Ende der 90 Jahre) nur mehr gestiegen ist bis 2006 (von 250 bis auf 700 immerhin ).
diesistkeineaufforderungzuirgendetwas
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super Artikel auf http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
Countrywide hat in 2006 und 2007 Mega-Aktien-Rückkauf-Aktionen gestartet;
aber nicht mit Geld, daß man in der Kasse hatte, sondern mit Krediten, die man extra dazu aufgenommen hat. Und das beste daran ist, daß man als Sicherheit dazu toxic-waste nämlich high equity-content debt vergeben hat.
So hatte das Management garantierte Abnehmer für seine Aktien.
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MBA-Hypoanträge sehr schwach:
Purchaseindex -5% auf 424.2 von 446.5
Kreditrestriktion in vollem Gange
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/55763.htm
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Sollte US heute nicht grün werden, haben wir dort rot,grün,rot,rot in Folge. Noch einen roten Tag plus negative Nachrichten und die Stimmung dürfte wirklich mies werden => Crashgefahr.
Ich persönlich habe heute in den Pullback kräftig hineingeshortet, kurz bevor es zum Abverkauf kam. Also optimal gelaufen heute ;-) Ziel: 7500 im Dax, dann sollte es zur Zwischenerholung kommen. Ansonsten: Stopp 7800.
Wednesday July 25, 12:45 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Banks Postpone $12 Billion Chrysler Finance Plan After Market Balks
NEW YORK (AP) -- Investment banks raising funds for the turnaround of Chrysler Group postponed a $12 billion debt offer after investors balked, so they will now fund the bulk themselves to keep the automaker's sale on track, people familiar with the matter said Wednesday.
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The banks, which include Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., will fund about $10 billion of the deal, said the people, who could not comment on the record because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Cerberus Capital Management -- the buyer -- and DaimlerChrysler -- the seller -- will together fund the other $2 billion. The banks will take a second-lien position behind Cerberus and Daimler, which means that Cerberus and Daimler would collect first in any default.
The move had been expected by Wall Street, as investors have become more reticent to buy into deals because of woes in the home-mortgage market and less demand for high-yield debt.
Cerberus plans to raise about $62 billion in total as part of a plan to recapitalize Chrysler and refinance old debt.
A spokesman for Cerberus would not comment about the new financing plan, but said the acquisition of an 80 percent stake in Chrysler Group is still on track to close in the coming days.
DaimlerChrysler Chief Financial Officer Bodo Uebber was asked about the issue during a conference call about the Mercedes Car Group and decline to comment on the financing and loan situation. Chairman Dieter Zetsche also declined to comment but insisted the deal was on track to close as scheduled.
Bankers have had a better time raising about $6 billion in loans for Chrysler's finance unit, according to people familiar with the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly on that deal. Though terms had to be sweetened, that financing -- along with the $12 billion raised by the banks, Cerberus and DaimlerChrysler -- is expected to close on Aug. 3.
Other banks that will split the $10 billion financing include Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns Cos., Toronto-Dominion Bank, and the Royal Bank of Canada. They could not immediately be reached for comment.
Chrysler Group is in the midst of planning a massive celebration to mark its return to American control hands after nine years of ownership by the German-based automaker. Cerberus, one of the largest U.S. buyout shops, announced in May it would pay $7.4 billion to buy the company from Daimler.
Cerberus' bid to buy Chrysler is a stunning reversal of the takeover of the Jeep and Dodge maker by Daimler Benz AG in 1998. Although it was billed as a merger that would create a global automotive powerhouse, the corporate cultures clashed and the companies never fully integrated their operations.
DaimlerChrysler shares rose $2.25, or 2.5 percent, to $91.70 in midday trading.
AP Business Writer Tom Krisher contributed to this story from Detroit and AP Business Writer Matt Moore contributed from Frankfurt.
Wenn ich Dich richtig verstanden habe, hast Du über den Yen dann argumentiert, dass der Euro überbewertet ist.
für mich liegt aber viel näher, dass der Yen momentan deutlich unterbewertet ist, und sowohl Dollar als auch Euro den Markt realistisch widerspiegeln. damit stellt sich die Frage, warum denn der Yen nicht weiter anzieht; das ist aber wohl Strategie der japanischen Notenbank, die damit zumindest den Export am Leben halten will, wenn schon die eigenen Bürger nicht wie gewüscht konsumieren.
Was hältst Du von dieser Argumentation?
Moody's - US-Hypothekenkrise Anlass zu Besorgnis
New York (BoerseGo.de) - Gemäß den Finanzexperten von Moody`s (Nachrichten) stellt eine durch die Krise im zweitklassigen Hypothekenmarkt verursachte Schlappe im US-Kreditmarkt ein Anlass zu ernster Besorgnis dar. Gleichzeitig sei hiedurch von keiner systematischen Bedrohung auszugehen. Während durch die Krise einige Investoren eine Neueinschätzung von Kreditkrisen vornehmen, machen sich andere bereit für Übernahmen. So würden Investments aufgrund gesunkener Vermögenswerte an Attraktivität gewinnen. Hiefür sei ausreichend Liquidität vorhanden. Die Bereitschaft für Zukäufe bedeute, dass mit keiner allgemeinen Bedrohung zu rechnen sei und die Integrität des Finanzsystems nicht gefährdet ist. Die Risiko-Neubewertung sei im gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt zu begrüßen. Eine generelle Zerrüttung des Finanzsystems in seiner Beschaffenheit stehe nicht bevor [klingt auch nicht recht beruhigend, finde ich - A.L.]. Die Investoren würden jedoch bis zur Kenntnis über den Umfang und die Größe der Verluste vermutlich in Nervosität verharren. Mit einem nahenden Endergebnis sei nicht zu rechnen, weshalb an den Märkten die Nerven von Investoren vorerst vermutlich weiterhin Strapazen ausgesetzt sind, heißt es weiter von Moody`s.
siehe posting 3150.....
bei der anzahl von postings, kann man schon einmal durcheinander kommen ;-)
mfg
ath
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