Der erste Krebsimpfstoff
Biotechnology
Dendreon (DNDN) has seen its shares killed this year, however there may be hope for investors yet, at least that was the thinking after the most recent earnings report. Sure the company lost more than was anticipated, but the good news is that sales of Provenge rose solidly and we may see the new management team deliver the results which investors expected from this drug. We are not saying that they are going to get it up to the blockbuster status some believed possible, but doubling sales from here is a real possibility - and that growth profile would really light a fire under the share price. Investors cheered the news of the sales increase and shares finished Friday up $0.62 (16.10%) to close at $4.47/share on volume of 30 million shares. We are adding this one back onto our watch lists now.
Published: Monday, 12 Nov 2012 | 6:36 AM ET Text Size
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Nov 12 (Reuters) - Dendreon Corp :
* Needham starts with buy rating; price target of $7
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/...olves-drugs-shown-to-shrink-tumors
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http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/morning_call/...yst.html?ana=yfcpc
Auf zu alten Höhen!
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Dendreon - Provenge Doesn't Seem to Be Fading $DNDN
Notable Calls - Friday, January 11th, 2013
Bernstein's uber analyst Geoffrey Porges is making a big biotech call upgrading Dendreon (NASDAQ:DNDN) to Outperform from Market Perform with a $10 target (prev. $7).
- Porges now convinced Provenge is not dead; Raises his estimates significantly; Sees $1+ EPS power by 2016 yielding significant upside for the stock.
The basis for his upgrade is the feedback he and his firm received from urologists in recent months as part of Bernstein's ongoing monitoring of the adoption of Medivation's Xtandi and its positioning against JNJ's Zytiga. That feedback, particularly from community urologists, convinces them that Provenge is not going to disappear, and in fact is more likely to return to modest but steady growth once the turbulence in the market (and the company) stabilizes. When the market (and industry observers) realizes that this is occurring, Porges expects the stock to offer significant upside given current low expectations.
Dendreon has been one of the worst performing stocks in biotech for the past two years, languishing between $4 and $5.50 since mid 2012 compared to prior highs of $40 to $45 in 2011. The last 18 months have seen the progressive disaster of poor forecasting, reimbursement challenges, slowing revenue growth, insider selling, excessive cash burn, shareholder class action suits, changes in management and board membership and finally restructuring. Most traditional healthcare and biotech investors have abandoned the company, and the stock now reflects a significant probability of extinction, in Bernstein's view. Investors have endorsed the dogma that the firm outlined in their coverage initiation a year and a half ago, which suggested that new prostate cancer drugs such as Zytiga and Xtandi will crowd out Provenge and gradually reduce its revenue opportunity, such that Dendreon fails to ever achieve sustained profitability.
- To explore the impact of these competing drugs, and how perceptions of Provenge are evolving, Bernstein recently conducted a series of one-on-one detailed phone interviews with urologists who are current users of Provenge – their thesis was that if Provenge is going to disappear, current users should be reducing their patient numbers now, or expecting to in the future.
When they contacted urologists with significant experience with Provenge, the firm found the opposite of these bleak expectations. The busiest urologist Provenge prescribers have been increasing their use, and recruiting colleagues and peers to use the product as well. These high volume users acknowledge some hiccoughs, but are adamant that they will recommend the drug to a significant and growing minority of advanced PC patients. Not only do they not expect any reduction in the frequency of use, but instead expect a 10-20% increase in the frequency of use in 2013, compared to 2012, and a further increase in 2014. These findings differ from Bernstein's prior research and other opinions about Provenge because they come from current users of Provenge; however, they are consistent with Dendreon's own comments and information (+15-25% sequential growth in urologists' use) from the last three quarterly conference calls.
- Based on these findings they are increasing their revenue forecast for Provenge; They now forecast peak revenue for Dendreon of $799mm by 2017, compared to $580mm previously with a significant contribution from ex US markets.
- They expect the company's cash expenses to now match revenue by mid 2013, and for the company to report full year positive earnings in 2014. Firm's adjusted EPS estimates are now for pro forma earnings of $0.17 in 2014, then $0.54 in 2015 and $1.14 in 2016. These are all significantly higher than recent consensus;
This call is consistent with Bernstein's more cautious stance about the higher quality mid cap biotech stocks toward the end of 2012. Porges believes there may be more opportunity in the disliked "out of favor" names (of which Dendreon is the poster child) than in chasing new highs for the recent sector leaders.
Given the cost and complexity of Provenge, Porges thinks Dendreon is unlikely to be a free standing company long term.
Notablecalls: There are several reasons why this is a big call and likely to have significant positive impact on the stock:
1) Porges is the probably the most respected analyst in the space; He is the Axe.
2) Dendreon has been left for dead by almost everyone except some die hard cult followers; Short interest stands at 30%.
3) Porges is now saying outright Provenge is going to survive and even thrive; His estimates are now way above Consensus.
4) EPS power of $1+ in '16 will yield in a $20-25/share stock = huge upside.
5) Porges is making a very sensible bet saying out-of-fav names are going to be the place to be in 2013. DNDN is the prime candidate.
6) This call is a huge surprise. I bet there are analysts out there today telling their associates to get on the effin phone and start talking to docs. If the feedback they are going to get is anything similar to what Porges recieved there are going to be more upgrades.
All in all, this call is likely to take the stock above $6/share today and toward $7 in a few weeks.
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Guten Morgen,
ich freute mich über die doch unerwartete Hochstufung von Bernstein, die gestern für den 21-v.H.-igen Anstieg verantwortlich war und somit den Kursverfall der vergangenen drei Tage kompensierte.
Auch freue ich mich darüber, dass der CEO die sog. COGS nachhaltig noch in diesem Jahr reduzieren will, so dass ein "break even" spätestens Mitte 2014 durchaus in Reichweite erscheint.
Der gegenwärtigen Euphorie, getragen von einer wahrscheinlichen EU-Zulassung von Provenge im Frühjahr, der Erprobung von Provenge im Zusammenspiel mit Zytiga und der Hoffnung einer Übernahme von Dendreon durch einen "Big Player", stehen aber - und jetzt kommt der Grund, warum ich noch an der Seitenlinie verharre - zum 31.12.2012 44,5 Mio geshortete Aktien gegenüber. Und ich würde mich nicht wundern, wenn im Zeitraum 07.01. bis 10.01.2012 noch einige (Millionen) hinzugekommen sind.
Wer hier auf Grund der durch den neuen CEO eingeläuteten und zweifelsfrei positiven Entwicklung ab sofort und am besten gleich Montag einkauft, möge bitte einkalkulieren, dass die MM, wie in dieser Woche geschehen, den Kurs binnen dreier Tage und ohne Gegenwehr (sic!) um einen schlappen Dollar in den Keller hämmern (werden) können.
Noch, so scheint es mir, wird jeder Quarter vom Tisch genommen, solange die 100 Mio $ Umsatz pro Quartal nicht erreicht werden bzw. ein buyout nicht nur ein (fortwährendes) Gerücht bleibt. Hochstufungen von Analysten (zumindest im Biotech-Sektor) beeindrucken die Shorties nicht wirklich.
Viel Glück allen Investierten und ein feines Gespür für den richtigen Ein- und Ausstieg wünscht
Der Ruhige
Nach unten haben wir ca 2 US Dollar Risiko, nach oben 10 US Dollar Spielraum!
Jeder muß wissen was er macht, ich hatte meinen ersten Tenbagger mit Dendreon seit 2009 und jetzt wieder gezehntelt, Wahnsinn! Ich habe natürlich Gewinne mitgenommen!
Science will prevail, Provenge ist die erste und einzige Immuntherapie die das eigene und zwar von jedem Menschen eigene Immunsystem erfolgreich nutzt um Prostatakrebs zu bekämpfen!
Dendreon machte viele Fehler, aber die Bernstein Analyse ist nicht nur irgendeine Analyse, der Analyst Porges ist der härteste und angesehenste Biotechanalyst in den USA!
Mir gefällt, daß er die Urologen selbst angerufen hat und nicht auf statements der Firma seine positiven Prognosen erstellt hat!
Time will tell!
Charles Gross, Benzinga Staff Writer February 06, 2013 9:50 AM
Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/...-on-dendreon#ixzz2KC8b9RCA
New PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T) Data to Be Presented at 2013 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Genitourinary Cancers Symposium
http://investor.dendreon.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=739948
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Profitabilität bereits in Q3 2013; und dies ohne den europäischen Markt, alle Achtung (sic!).
Ab dem heutigen Tage werde ich kaufen und nicht vor Juli 2014 verkaufen, es sei denn, der buyout findet vorfristig statt.
Ich sorge mich seit heute nicht um die Shorties und ihre ganz sicher eintretenden, weiteren Attacken, um den Kurs vielleicht unter 5 $ zu drücken.
Und ich würde mich nicht wundern, wenn ein Big Player quasi aus dem Nichts bis Weihnachten ein Übernahmeangebot kommuniziert. Mein Erwartungshorizont zeigt mir $ 25/share.
Bis dahin schaue ich mir die Sandkastenkämpfe (=covering) jedenfalls gelassen an.
Einen lieben Gruß
Der Ruhige
Bin auch optimistisch, jedoch seit gestern wieder etwas frustriert aufgrund einen schwächeren Q1 Ausblicks für 2013.
Na ja, man muß längerfristig denken und über den Tellerrand hinausschauen!
Gruß
Fredy
Guten Morgen Fredy,
der Quartalsbericht lässt viele Deutungsmöglichkeiten zu und wird von den dem Lesen mächtigen Marktteilnehmern auch entsprechend interpretiert, je nach dem und abhängig davon, welchem Lager sie sich zugehörigen fühlen. Tagtägliches und v.a. nachhaltig substanzloses Bashen und Pushen ist für die amerikanischen Forenjungs ein Sport und für manchen Lebensinhalt.
Ich lese den Bericht als transparente, keinen Überraschungsmoment enthaltene Handlungsanleitung für die Shorties. Will heißen: ihr habt ab jetzt noch bis Weihnachten Zeit, die Aktie zu zerlegen und auch den möglichen Sommer-Hype fein säuberlich zu filettieren. Dann ist Schluss mit dem Schlachtfest.
Bis dahin werden Analysten Erfüllungsgehilfen spielen, wehklagen über den Status quo und dazu beitragen, dass "in statu quo ante" eintreten möge; auf Deutsch: 3,80 $/Aktie.
Diese Entwicklung erscheint mir nicht unwahrscheinlich, jedenfalls wahrscheinlicher, als ein kontinuierlicher Anstieg, weil die Fakten und die Erwartungen des Unternehmens offen und für jeden einsehbar auf dem Tisch liegen.
Meine positive Stimmung gründet im Übrigen auf der kommunizierten Erwartung des Unternehmenes, ab Q2 2013 die die Bruttomarge signifikant beeinflussenden sog. "costs of go(o)ds" (kleiner Scherz am Rande) auf oder unter 50 v.H. zu drücken.
Die Entwicklung der Bruttomarge ist für mich die Eintrittskarte zum buyout; es sind nicht die Umsatzerlöse.
Kurzum: Die Braut wird schön gemacht, während der Bräutigam am (offenen) Markt einkauft.
Einen guten Tag wünscht
Der Ruhige
http://www.provenge.com/getting-started.aspx#commercial
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq:DNDN) today announced that it has reached an agreement in
principle to settle the securities class action litigation pending against it in the United States District Court for the Western
District of Washington. Upon final approval, the settlement will resolve the claims asserted against all defendants in the
previously disclosed putative securities class action. The lawsuit is currently pending against the Company and three current
and former executive officers.
In the lawsuit, captioned In re Dendreon Corporation Class Action Litigation, Master Docket No. C 11-1291 JLR., an investor,
purporting to represent a class consisting of persons who purchased Dendreon common stock between April 29, 2010 and
August 3, 2011, sought unspecified damages from Dendreon and three current and former officers of the Company for allegedly
false or misleading statements concerning the Company, its finances, business operations and prospects with a focus on the
market launch of PROVENGE and related forecasts concerning physician adoption, and revenue from sales of PROVENGE.
The terms agreed upon by the parties contemplates a settlement payment of $40 million, $38 million of which will be funded by
Dendreon's insurers. Dendreon and the individual defendants continue to deny that any statements they made were false or
misleading.
"We are pleased to put this matter behind us," said Christine Mikail, Executive Vice President, Corporate Development, General
Counsel and Secretary of Dendreon. "Upon final approval of this settlement, Dendreon will have eliminated the potential
distraction from ongoing class action litigation that began in 2011."
The terms of the settlement must be formally documented and are subject to approval by the District Court following notice to all
class members. While the Company expects the settlement will receive the needed approval, the process normally takes several
months.
About Dendreon
Dendreon Corporation is a biotechnology company whose mission is to target cancer and transform lives through the discovery,
development, commercialization and manufacturing of novel therapeutics. The Company applies its expertise in antigen
identification, engineering and cell processing to produce active cellular immunotherapy (ACI) product candidates designed to
stimulate an immune response in a variety of tumor types. Dendreon's first product, PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T), was approved
by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in April 2010. Dendreon is exploring the application of additional ACI product
candidates and small molecules for the potential treatment of a variety of cancers. The Company is headquartered in Seattle,
Washington and is traded on the NASDAQ Global Market under the symbol DNDN. For more information about the Company
and its programs, visit http://www.dendreon.com/.
Statements in this press release that are not strictly historical in nature constitute "forward-looking statements." Such statements
include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the Company's expectations concerning the settlement of the pending
securities litigation against the Company and three of its current or former officers, the expected benefits of the restructuring,
the timing and elements of the restructuring, the timing and form of related charges, the expected annual operating expense
reduction, expectations and beliefs regarding Dendreon's financial position, profitability and Dendreon's ability to break even
and achieve improved performance as a result of the restructuring, expectations regarding reductions of cost of goods sold,
expectations regarding regulatory approval of PROVENGE® in Europe, expectations regarding the presentation of clinical data,
developments affecting Dendreon's U.S. and global business and prospects and potential revenue and earnings from product
sales, expectations regarding market size and market opportunity, beliefs regarding the impact of our direct to consumer
advertising, expectations with respect to our sales force execution, and progress generally on commercialization efforts for
PROVENGE. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may
cause Dendreon's actual results to be materially different from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by such
forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, our ability to complete documentation of the settlement
among the parties to the litigation and with Dendreon's insurers and to obtain court approval of the settlement, neither of which
can be assured; our inability to achieve and sustain commercial success for PROVENGE; the identification of efficacy, safety or
other issues with PROVENGE; a slower than anticipated adoption by treating physicians of PROVENGE for the treatment of
patients with advanced prostate cancer due to competing therapies, instability in our sales force, including the risk that we
cannot replace vacant sales positions on a prompt basis, perceived difficulties in the treatment process, delays in obtaining
reimbursement or for other reasons; any promotional limitations imposed by the FDA on our ability to commercialize and market
Die Ruhe vor dem Sturm?
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Ich bleib dabei, die Kosten werden gesenkt, mit der TV-Werbung werden Millionen Zuschauer angesprochen und vielleicht kommt ja bald in Q3/Q4 der große Druchbruch?
EU-Zulassung steht vor der Tür, 100 % weltweit alleinige Rechte...... der Kurs ist ein Witz und eine Verdoppelung ist dieses Jahr noch drin!
Nur das Sequester der Amis wird halt wieder zurückhalten.....
Wow, up to 18 month extendes overal survival in patients with PSA under 21, sensationell in meinen Augen, dazu minimal side effects!
Dendreon wird zurückkommen ein Game-Changer in Sachen Prostatakrebsbehandlung!